Analyses and Reports

Africa Spectrum
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Family Support and © The Author(s) 2025
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DOI: 10.1177/00020397241310450
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Daniel Tuki

Abstract
Using novel large-N survey data collected from the state of Edo – Nigeria’s migration
epicentre – this study examines how family support relates to people’s migration aspira-
tions and their perception of the risks associated with migrating to Europe. The regres-
sion results reveal that family support positively correlates with migration aspirations
and raises people’s confidence in their chances of reaching Europe should they decide
to migrate, effectively decreasing their perception of migration risks. Women are less
optimistic about reaching Europe than men.

Manuscript received 14 May 2024; accepted 3 December 2024

Keywords
Nigeria, migration aspirations, risk perception, family support, Europe, Edo State

Introduction
The state of Edo in Nigeria’s Southern Region is often referred to as Nigeria’s migration
epicentre because it is the place of origin for most irregular migrants from Nigeria who
intend to reach Europe (Beber and Scacco, 2022; Vermeuelen, 2019). Data collected in

Migration, Integration and Transnationalization Research Unit, WZB Berlin Social Science Center,
Berlin, Germany

Corresponding Author:
Daniel Tuki, Migration, Integration and Transnationalization Research Unit, WZB Berlin Social Science Center,
Reichpietschufer 50, 10785 Berlin, Germany.
Email: [email protected]

Creative Commons CC BY: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
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tion and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as
specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage).
2 Africa Spectrum 0(0)

2021 as part of the Transnational Perspectives on Migration and Integration

(TRANSMIT) research project reveal that, among individuals aged 15 and older in
Edo, 71 per cent express a desire to migrate.1 Among individuals aged 15 to 35, 82
per cent express a desire to migrate. When respondents are asked where they would
like to emigrate if there were no restrictions on their movement, the United States is
the top choice, followed by Canada. The United Kingdom and Germany are the third
and fourth most preferred destinations, respectively, while Italy ranks sixth after the
United Arab Emirates.2 Beber and Scacco (2022: 2) analysed survey data from Benin
City, the capital of Edo State, and found that “nearly one in four households […] had
one of its members attempt irregular migration to Europe in 2017.”
International migration, particularly when irregular, can be very risky. Data from the
Missing Migrants Project database show that 9,013 migrants either died or went
missing along the Mediterranean route between 2020 and 2023. In 2023 alone, there
were 3,105 reported cases of dead or missing migrants.3 Sub-Saharan African migrants
travelling the Mediterranean route often face challenges such as hostility from govern-
ments, security forces, and local populations in Maghreb countries like Libya, Tunisia,
Algeria, and Morocco (BBC, 2018; El Atti, 2023; Malik, 2023; United Nations, 2023).
These countries are popular transit points due to their proximity to Europe and the
Mediterranean Sea.
Domestic migration also occurs within African countries. Abeje (2021) conducted a
study in Ethiopia and found that rural–urban migration was driven by rural households’
desire to earn income to supplement poor agricultural harvests and diversify their liveli-
hoods. In a study conducted in Tanzania, Duda and Grote (2018) discovered that house-
holds experiencing food insecurity were more likely to have a strong desire to migrate in
search of employment. However, their results indicated that the migration of a household
member did not improve the food security status of the household, as remittances sent by
migrants were insufficient to offset the loss of labour due to their migration. A study con-
ducted by Mulcahy and Kollamparambil (2016) in South Africa revealed that rural–urban
migration caused a decline in migrants’ subjective well-being. They attributed this
decline to the disparity between migrants’ expectations and the actual conditions at
their destination, along with the emotional toll of being separated from their families.
Some studies on domestic migration have focused specifically on the Nigerian case.
The search for better employment opportunities and higher wages has been identified
as a pull factor, prompting individuals to leave rural areas for urban centres (Alarima,
2018; Nwankwo et al., 2022). This movement has negatively impacted rural areas by
reducing labour supply, agricultural output, and farmers’ incomes (Alarima, 2018;
Ovharhe et al., 2022). Pittin (1984, 1991) conducted a study in the northern Nigerian
state of Katsina, where she found that even though there was a high level of rural–
urban migration among members of the Hausa ethnic group, the migration process was
highly gendered. While men migrated freely to urban centres in search of better job
opportunities, women were not afforded such liberty due to societal gender norms that
confined them to the home. Women were only allowed to migrate in association with
their husbands or with the permission of their families – a permission that was often
Tuki 3

difficult to obtain. A recent study by Tuki (2024a) reveals that these gender norms, which
disadvantage women, remain deeply rooted in Northern Nigerian society. Studies on
members of the Igbo ethnic group show that, despite frequently migrating to urban
centres across Nigeria in search of business opportunities, they continue to maintain
strong ties with their home communities and express a desire to be buried there upon
their death (Chukwuezi, 2001; Smith, 2011, 2004).
Socio-economic conditions in Nigeria are generally poor, with significant challenges
such as youth unemployment, poverty, and violent conflicts (Ajufo, 2013; Nigerian
National Bureau of Statistics, 2020; Tuki, 2022, 2024b). However, the socio-economic
circumstances in Edo State are better than the national average. A recent report by the
Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics (2022: 99–101) indicates that Edo had the sixth-
lowest level of multi-dimensional poverty among Nigeria’s thirty-six states. Edo’s multi-
dimensional poverty index (MPI) score was 0.126, significantly below the national
average of 0.257.4 Another report by the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics and
UNICEF (2018: 25) reveals that 57.2 per cent of Edo’s population belongs to
Nigeria’s richest wealth index quintile, making it second only to Lagos State. Edo also
has a high literacy rate of 96.6 per cent among individuals aged 15 to 24, which is
31.5 percentage points higher than the national average (Nigerian National Bureau of
Statistics and UNICEF, 2018: 194–196).5
Yet, migration aspirations remain very high among Edo’s population. Bisong (2022:
215) highlights the culture of migration in the state: “In regions like Edo State, migration
in search of ‘greener pastures’ is rooted in the society and the daily discourse of young
people and their families.” While several studies have explored the factors influencing
migration in Edo (e.g. Obi et al., 2021; Plambech, 2023), with some specifically exam-
ining how potential migrants perceive the risks associated with migration (e.g. Obi
et al., 2019; Beber and Scacco, 2022), none has, to the best of my knowledge, examined
the association between family support and individuals’ migration aspirations as well as
their perception of migration risk. Using novel survey data collected from the Southern
Nigerian state of Edo in 2021 as part of the TRANSMIT project, this study aims to
address that gap. Specifically, it investigates whether individuals who believe their fam-
ilies want them to migrate are more likely to have high migration aspirations and to be
more optimistic about successfully reaching Europe.
An important point to note is that the measure of migration aspirations used in this
study does not clearly distinguish between domestic and international migration. This
is because respondents were simply asked whether they were considering moving
away from the state of Edo for a period of at least three months – whether such movement
was within or outside Nigeria. Moreover, this operationalisation does not explicitly refer
to irregular migration. However, given the culture of international migration in Edo,
coupled with the fact that most households have family members who have attempted
irregular migration to Europe (Bisong, 2022; Beber and Scacco, 2022), it is likely that
most respondents had interpreted the question in terms of their desire to emigrate to
another country. In contrast, the second dependent variable measuring perception of
migration risk focuses specifically on international migration because it explicitly asks
4 Africa Spectrum 0(0)

respondents to assess the likelihood of successfully reaching Europe if they decide to

migrate.
I estimated regression models that reveal family support is positively associated with
migration aspirations and increase people’s optimism about successfully reaching Europe
if they choose to migrate. This underscores the importance of considering not only the
individual motivations of potential migrants, but also the influence of family members
on the migration decision, as migration decisions are often a collective family matter.
Furthermore, the results show that, compared to men, women are less optimistic about
reaching Europe. The gender disparity in risk perception may be due to the different
migration experiences for men and women, as women tend to face greater risks of traf-
ficking and sexual violence (Adeyinka et al., 2023; Pertek, 2022).
This study contributes to the broader literature on the New Economics of Labor
Migration (NELM) theory, which posits that migration decisions are best understood at
the household or family level rather than at the individual level. According to NELM
theory, migration is a collective strategy employed by households to improve their eco-
nomic situation. This theory highlights two critical factors influencing migration decisions:
relative deprivation and risk diversification. Relative deprivation refers to a household’s
socio-economic standing compared to other households, driving the desire to migrate in
order to achieve parity or superiority. Additionally, households may encourage migration
as a way to diversify their sources of income and reduce financial risks associated with reli-
ance on local economies. By considering these household-level dynamics, NELM theory
offers a comprehensive framework for understanding the complex motivations behind
migration (Massey et al., 1993; Paul, 2015; Stark, 1984, 1978).
The remainder of this study is organised as follows: the section “Data and
Methodology” introduces the data, discusses the variables that will be used to estimate
the regression model, and briefly outlines the analytical technique. The section
“Results and Discussion” reports and discusses the regression results, while the section
“Conclusion” summarises the study and concludes.

Data and Methodology

This study uses novel survey data collected in 2021 from the southern Nigerian state of
Edo as part of the Transnational Perspectives on Migration and Integration
(TRANSMIT) research project.6 A total of 1,638 respondents from all 18 local govern-
ment areas (LGAs) (i.e. municipalities) in the state were interviewed (see Figure 1).
Respondents were aged 15 and older. Participants were selected using clustered
random sampling, with a male-to-female ratio of 45:55. Section B in the Appendix pro-
vides a detailed discussion of the sampling strategy. The section “Operationalisation of
the Variables” defines the variables used to estimate the regression models.
Before the survey was conducted, ethical approval was obtained from the WZB Berlin
Social Science Center Ethics Review Committee (application no.: 2020/3/101) and the
National Health Research Ethics Committee of Nigeria (NHREC). Respondents were
clearly informed about the nature of the survey, its purpose, and how the data collected
Tuki 5

Figure 1. Study Area.

Note: Panel A visualises the administrative boundaries of the local government areas in Edo State. Panel B
shows the administrative boundaries of the states that make up Nigeria’s two major regions – that is the
Northern and Southern Regions – along with the countries neighbouring Nigeria. The shapefiles outlining
Nigeria’s administrative boundaries were created by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA). Figure created by author using QGIS software.

would be processed prior to the interviews. Only after they granted consent did enumerators
begin the interviews. In the case of respondents who were minors (i.e. under 18 years old),
consent was first sought from the household head, after which consent was also sought
from the minor. Only when both parties granted consent did enumerators proceed with
the interviews. Respondents were informed that they could opt out of the interview at
any time if they did not wish to continue.

Operationalisation of the Variables

Dependent Variables
Migration Aspirations. This measures the respondents’ desire to migrate to another
location outside the state of Edo for a period of at least three months. This movement
could be either domestic (i.e. to another state within Nigeria) or international (to
another country). The measure was derived from the question, “How much are you con-
sidering moving to another location to live outside of Edo (‘live’ meaning staying there
for more than for 3 months), answered on a scale from 1 to 5, where 1 stands for ‘I don’t
6 Africa Spectrum 0(0)

want to move at all’ and 5 means ‘I really want to move’?” Of the respondents, 44 per
cent chose a score of 5, while only 29 per cent of them chose a score of 1.
Reach Europe. This variable measures the respondents’ expectation of successfully
reaching Europe if they decide to migrate. It was derived from the question, “And
should you decide to migrate to Europe, how likely is it that you will make it there?
Please answer on a scale from 1 to 5, where 1 means ‘I will not make it at all’ and 5
means ‘I will certainly make it.’” A higher level of optimism about reaching Europe is
associated with a lower perception of migration risk, while less optimism is linked
with higher risk perception. Of the respondents, 62 per cent rated their optimism about
reaching Europe at 5 out of 5, while only 9 per cent rated it at 1, suggesting a low per-
ception of migration risk among the population in Edo.

Explanatory Variable
Family Support. This is a dummy variable that takes the value of 1 if respondents
believe their families want them to migrate and 0 if they do not. It was derived from
the question, “Do you think your family would want you to migrate?” with a value of
1 indicating “yes” and 0 indicating “no.” Of the respondents, 73 per cent said yes to
the question, while the remaining 27 per cent said no. A limitation of this variable is
that it does not allow respondents to choose “don’t know” responses or to indicate
whether their families are indifferent to them migrating. Additionally, the variable
does not provide any information about the degree of family support; it is based on per-
ception and does not reflect what the family says directly.

Control Variables. Some control variables for the respondents’ demographic attributes,
level of education, household size, household income, expectations regarding the econ-
omy’s future performance, and contact with return migrants were considered. Each of
these is discussed below.
Demographic Covariates. This includes variables such as the respondents’ gender,
marital status, and age. Gender takes a value of 1 if the respondent is female and 0 if
male. Marital status takes a value of 1 if a respondent is married or has previously
been married and 0 otherwise. Age is measured in years.
Educational Level. This measures the highest level of education that respondents
have attained on a scale with ten ordinal categories ranging from 0 = “no formal school-
ing” to 9 = “master’s degree and above.”7
Household Size. This measures the total number of individuals living in the same
house alongside the respondents. Household members are individuals who sleep under
the same roof and who share meals regularly.
Household Income. This measures the socio-economic condition of the household to
which respondents belong. It was derived from the question, “Which of the following
statements best describes the current economic situation of your household?” The
Tuki 7

responses were measured on a scale with five ordinal categories ranging from 0 = “money
is not enough for food” to 4 = “we can afford to buy almost anything.”
Expected Growth. This assesses respondents’ outlook on the future performance of
the Nigerian economy. It was derived from the question, “What do you think will be
the economic situation in Nigeria during the next five years compared to the current situ-
ation?” The responses were measured on a scale with five ordinal categories ranging from
0 = “much worse” to 4 = “much better.” Pessimism about the economy’s future perform-
ance might make people more desperate to migrate, thus lowering their perception of
migration risks.
Know Return Migrant. This measures whether respondents are familiar with indivi-
duals in their community who have spent time abroad. It was derived from the question,
“Do you personally know someone in your community (town or village) who has lived
abroad and returned? By ‘personally’, I mean had at least a conversation with them.” The
responses were recorded as a binary measure, with “1” indicating “yes” and “0” indicat-
ing “no.”
Table 1 presents the summary statistics of the variables used to estimate the regression
models.

Analytical Technique
To examine the association between family support, migration aspirations, and percep-
tion of migration risk, I consider a model of the following general form:
γ i = α 0 + β1 family support + β2 φ′i + μi (1)
where γ i is the dependent variable which could measure either migration aspirations for
Respondent i or their expectation of reaching Europe if they decided to migrate, φ′i is a

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics.

Variable Total observations Mean Standard deviation Minimum Maximum

a
Migration aspirations 1,531 3.374 1.711 1 5
Reach Europea 1,531 4.15 1.288 1 5
Family support 1,531 0.734 0.442 0 1
Female 1,570 0.553 0.497 0 1
Married 1,531 0.639 0.481 0 1
Age 1,569 36.047 15.797 15 97
Household size 1,570 3.189 1.488 1 9
Household income 1,531 1.598 0.975 0 4
Educational level 1,529 4.589 1.703 0 9
Expected growth 1,531 0.643 1.05 0 4
Know return migrant 1,531 0.477 0.5 0 1
Note: aThe dependent variables.
8 Africa Spectrum 0(0)

vector of control variables discussed earlier, α 0 is the intercept, and β1 and β2 denote the
coefficients of the explanatory and control variables, respectively, while μi is the error
term. All the variables are measured in 2021. Although control variables were included
in the regression model, omitted variable bias might still be a concern, as it is impossible
to control for all factors that could confound the relationship between the dependent and
explanatory variables. Moreover, the issue of reverse causation cannot be entirely ruled
out, especially in the model where migration aspirations are regressed on family support.
For instance, while family support might indeed foster higher migration aspirations, indi-
viduals with pre-existing migration aspirations may have first discussed their plans with
family members to gauge their support before fully developing those aspirations.8
Similarly, individuals inclined towards migration might also be more likely to say that
their family supports their plans. Although this study is correlational and does not
assert causation, it nonetheless offers valuable insights into how family dynamics influ-
ence individuals’ migration aspirations and their perceptions of the associated risks.
An ordered logit regression was used to estimate the model because the dependent
variables are measured on an ordinal scale. A benefit of this approach is that it allows
me to determine the relationship between the explanatory variable and each category
of the dependent variable. Standard errors were clustered at the LGA (i.e. municipality)
level to account for potential correlation between observations within the same LGA.
Fixed effects for the respondents’ ethnicities were included in the regression models to
account for cultural factors unique to particular ethnic groups, such as customs and super-
stitious beliefs, that could influence risk perception and migration aspirations.

Results and Discussion

Table 2 reports the regression results. Models 1 – 3 examine the association between
family support and migration aspirations, while models 4 – 6 examine the association
between family support and risk perception – that is expectations of reaching Europe.
Model 1 is a baseline model regressing migration aspirations on family support.
Family support had a positive coefficient and was statistically significant at the 1 per
cent level, suggesting that individuals whose families want them to migrate are more
likely to have high migration aspirations. This implies that the decision to migrate
involves consultation with family members rather than being made solely by the migrants
themselves. Migration can be a costly undertaking, necessitating the pooling of family
resources to finance the journey. Families might also view migration as a way to
spread financial risk, particularly in Nigeria, where social safety nets are largely
absent. In addition to financial assistance, family members might provide emotional
support (e.g. by encouraging and reassuring the potential migrants) and offer a safety
net in case the migration does not go as planned.
Model 2 shows that the positive correlation between family support and migration
aspirations is robust to the inclusion of control variables. Among the control variables,
age, household income, and knowing a return migrant were significant. The negative
sign accompanying age suggests that people’s migration aspirations decline as they get
Table 2. Ordered Logit Models Regressing Migration Aspirations and Perceived Migration Risk on Family Support.
Tuki

Migration aspirations Reach Europe

Dependent variables
1 2 3 4 5 6
Family support 2.008*** 1.722*** 1.195*** 1.192*** 0.906*** 0.612**
(0.228) (0.227) (.413) (0.14) (0.132) (0.24)
Family support × gender 0.116 0.204
(0.303) (0.24)
Family support × married 0.615*** 0.219
(0.232) (0.27)
Female 0.078 −0.019 −0.216 −0.361**
(0.163) (0.349) (0.178) (0.169)
Married −0.134 −0.629** −0.039 −0.199
(0.17) (0.272) (0.156) (0.263)
Age −0.035*** −0.036*** −0.024*** −0.025***
(0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006)
Educational level 0.07 0.068 0.046* 0.046
(0.055) (0.057) (0.028) (0.028)
Household size 0.06 0.063 0.024 0.025
(0.039) (0.039) (0.039) (0.04)
Household income −0.149** −0.145* 0.103* 0.103*
(0.074) (0.076) (0.055) (0.053)
Expected growth −0.075 −0.074 −0.027 −0.027
(0.046) (0.048) (0.053) (0.054)
Know return migrant 0.262*** 0.268*** 0.203** 0.208**
(0.101) (0.102) (0.089) (0.087)
Intercept 1 0.36*** −0.858* −1.278** −1.712*** −2.459*** −2.689***
(0.131) (0.481) (0.586) (0.162) (0.39) (0.381)
9

(Continued)
 10

Table 2. (continued)

Migration aspirations Reach Europe

Dependent variables
1 2 3 4 5 6
Intercept 2 0.619*** −0.578 −0.996* −1.336*** −2.066*** −2.294***
(0.129) (0.458) (0.568) (0.164) (0.363) (0.35)
Intercept 3 1.259*** 0.119 −0.297 −0.351** −1.041*** −1.268***
(0.124) (0.426) (0.54) (0.152) (0.355) (0.341)
Intercept 4 1.738*** 0.628 0.212 0.274* −0.397 −0.623*
(0.151) (0.406) (0.533) (0.143) (0.383) (0.357)
Ethnic group FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 1,530 1,527 1,527 1,530 1,527 1,527
Pseudo R2 0.081 0.116 0.118 0.039 0.059 .059
Log pseudolikelihood −1896.845 −1817.488 −1814.834 −1701.942 −1664.027 −1663.3
AIC statistic 3829.69 3670.977 3665.667 3439.885 3364.053 3362.6
BIC statistic 3925.685 3766.936 3761.626 3535.879 3460.013 3458.559
Note: Clustered robust standard errors are in parenthesis. All models are estimated using ordered logit (Ologit) regression. FE = fixed effects; AIC = Akaike
information criterion; BIC = Bayesian information criterion.
*p < .10, **p < .05, ***p < .01.
Africa Spectrum 0(0)
Tuki 11

older. This might be because life priorities shift with age. The desire to migrate might
have been high in youth and declined as people got older and had more responsibilities.
It could also be that older people have built stronger social networks and community ties
over time; this makes them hesitant to leave these relationships and support systems
behind for a new location. The negative sign accompanying household income suggests
that being in a good socio-economic position lowers migration aspirations. This might be
because higher income affords individuals a comfortable lifestyle, reducing the urgency
to move for economic reasons. The positive sign associated with the variable measuring
knowledge of a return migrant indicates that respondents who know someone who has
been abroad are more likely to have high migration aspirations. This might be because
returnees, especially those who have achieved success abroad, can serve as role
models demonstrating that migration can lead to improved economic opportunities and
better living conditions.
To determine whether the association between family support and migration aspira-
tions is moderated by respondents’ demographic attributes such as gender and marital
status, two interaction terms were created: the first term multiplies family support by
gender, while the second is the product of family support and marital status. As shown
in model 3, which includes the interaction terms, only the second term was statistically
significant. Its positive sign suggests that people who are married and whose families
want them to migrate are likely to have high migration aspirations. This might be due
to the need to acquire resources to meet the family’s needs. Moreover, spouses could
provide emotional and financial support, especially when the move aligns with the
couple’s shared goals. It is important to note that marital status alone does not independ-
ently influence migration aspirations. In fact, it appears to lower migration aspirations, as
evidenced by its negative sign and statistical significance at the 5 per cent level.
Model 4 is a baseline model regressing the expectation of reaching Europe (i.e. per-
ceived migration risk) on family support. Family support carried a positive sign and was
significant at the 1 per cent level, indicating that individuals who believe their families
want them to migrate are more likely to be optimistic about reaching Europe. In other
words, family support decreases the perceived risks associated with migration. This
might be because the financial support provided by family members can cover costs
related to travel, settlement, and emergencies, making the move less daunting.
Moreover, family members in the destination country can provide valuable social networks
that reduce the risks associated with migration, hence making migrants feel more confident
about their migration decisions. However, in cases where families want a member to
migrate but do not have the financial means to support the journey, this could put pressure
on potential migrants, making them feel like failures. This might be the case in the relation-
ship between parents and children in Nigeria, where social norms dictate that it is the
responsibility of children to make their parents proud by acquiring wealth and looking
after them in old age. In fact, data obtained from Wave 7 of the World Values Survey
(WVS) (Haerpfer et al., 2022), conducted in 2018, show that 98.2 per cent of Nigerians
agree that one of their main goals in life is to make their parents proud. The same
survey also shows that 94 per cent agree that it is a child’s duty to take care of ill
12 Africa Spectrum 0(0)

parents.9 Such pressure might make potential migrants more eager to emigrate to Europe in
search of better opportunities, leading them to underestimate the risks associated with the
journey.
In model 5, where the control variables were included, family support maintained its
positive sign and remained significant. Among the control variables, only age, educational
level, household income, and the indicator for knowing a return migrant were significant.
Age carried a negative sign, suggesting that individuals become less optimistic about suc-
cessfully reaching Europe as they get older. This might be because older individuals
become more risk-averse and less inclined to pursue uncertain ventures, such as migration,
especially if they perceive it as a risk to their current quality of life. The positive sign
accompanying educational level indicates that educated individuals are more likely to be
optimistic about reaching Europe. This might be because their ability to read enables
them to access relevant information about migration options, legal processes, and potential
destinations, which in turn lowers the perceived risks associated with migration. Moreover,
educated individuals are likely to be of higher socio-economic status, enabling them to
afford migration-related expenses. Household income carried a positive sign, suggesting
that belonging to a wealthy household increases the likelihood of individuals feeling con-
fident about reaching Europe. This may be because wealthier households are better able to
cover migration-related costs, effectively reducing the risks associated with the move. The
positive sign accompanying knowledge of a return migrant indicates that respondents who
know someone who has been abroad are more optimistic about reaching Europe. This
might be because returnees can provide valuable insights into the migration process, redu-
cing uncertainties and fears about moving abroad.
In model 6, where the two interaction terms were included, they were both statistically
insignificant. However, in this same model, the indicator for gender (i.e. female) became
statistically significant for the first time. Its negative sign indicates that, compared to men,
women are less optimistic about reaching Europe. This may be because women’s experi-
ences of migration differ from men’s, with women being particularly vulnerable to traf-
ficking and sexual violence (Adeyinka et al., 2023; Keygnaert et al., 2014; Pertek, 2022).
To illustrate the strength of the associations, I plotted the predicted probabilities for the
baseline models in Figure 2 (i.e. models 1 and 4 in Table 2). Figure 2(A) shows that com-
pared to individuals whose families do not support their migration, those whose families
do are 42.3 percentage points more likely to choose a score of 5 when asked about their
desire to migrate and 33.7 percentage points less likely to choose a score of 1. A quick
examination of the panel reveals that the association between family support
and migration aspirations is largest on the extreme response categories denoting the
highest and lowest levels of migration aspirations. Figure 2(B) shows that compared to
individuals without family support, those whose families support their migration are
9.2 percentage points less likely to choose a score of 1 (indicating the lowest likelihood
of reaching Europe) and 25.9 percentage points more likely to choose a score of 5 (indi-
cating the highest likelihood of reaching Europe). A cursory look at Figure 2(B) shows
that the association between family support and respondents’ expectations of reaching
Europe is largest in the fifth response category.
Tuki 13

Figure 2. Predicted Probabilities Showing the Magnitude of the Associations between Family
Support, Migration Aspirations, and Perceived Migration Risk.
Note: Panel A visualises the association between family support and the five categories of migration aspirations.
Migration aspirations are measured on a five-point ordinal scale ranging from 1 = “I don’t want move” to 5 = “I
really want to move.” Panel B shows the association between family support and the five categories of perceived
migration risk. “Reach Europe,” which evaluates respondents’ expectations of reaching Europe if they decide to
migrate, is measured on a five-point ordinal scale ranging from 1 = “I will not make it at all” (i.e. the highest
perception of migration risk) to 5 = “I will certainly make it” (i.e. the lowest perception migration risk). Confidence
intervals are set at the 95 per cent level.

Conclusion
This study investigated the relationship between family support, migration aspirations,
and the perception of migration risk among the population in the Southern Nigerian
state of Edo. Edo is often regarded as Nigeria’s migration epicentre because most irregu-
lar migrants from Nigeria who aspire to reach Europe originate from there. Regression
analysis revealed that family support increased the likelihood of individuals having
high migration aspirations. Family support was also found to increase people’s optimism
about successfully reaching Europe. In essence, individuals whose families endorsed
their migration perceive lower risks associated with the endeavour compared to those
whose families did not. Additionally, women exhibited less optimism about reaching
Europe than men, potentially reflecting distinct experiences of migration, including
greater vulnerability to trafficking and sexual violence. These findings underscore the col-
lective nature of migration decisions, emphasising the pivotal role of the family unit.
14 Africa Spectrum 0(0)

Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank the editors and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful
comments. The author would also like to thank Roisin Cronin for the editorial assistance.

Data Availability Statement

The data and do-files underlying this study are available in the Harvard Dataverse: https://doi.org/
10.7910/DVN/UGTPLM.

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The author declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or
publication of this article.

Funding
The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or
publication of this article: Financial support from the German Federal Ministry for Family Affairs,
Senior Citizens, Women and Youth (BMFSFJ) is gratefully acknowledged.

ORCID iD
Daniel Tuki https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1097-3845

Notes
1. The measure for migration aspirations was based on the question, “How much are you consider-
ing moving to another location to live outside of Edo (‘live’ meaning staying there for more than
3 months), on a scale from 1 to 5, where 1 stands for ‘I don’t want to move at all’ and 5 means ‘I
really want to move’?” The estimate of 71 per cent represents the number of respondents who
chose a value greater than 1.
2. Table A1 in the Appendix shows the twelve most preferred migration destination countries
among the population in Edo.
3. The Missing Migrants Project is administered by the International Organization for Migration
(IOM). To access the Missing Migrants Projects database, visit https://missingmigrants.iom.int/.
4. The multidimensional poverty index (MPI) ranges from 0 to 1, with 0 denoting the absence of
poverty and 1 denoting universal poverty and deprivation. The index considers four dimensions
of well-being: living standards (e.g. assets, cooking fuel, sanitation, water access, and water reli-
ability), education (e.g. years of schooling, school attendance, and school lag), health (e.g. nutri-
tion, food security, and time to reach healthcare), and work and shocks (e.g. unemployment,
underemployment, and security shock).
5. The average literacy rates were derived by summing the estimates for men and women and then
taking the average.
6. I was a research fellow affiliated with the TRANSMIT project. For more information on the
project, visit https://www.projekte.hu-berlin.de/en/transmit.
7. Table A2 in the Appendix lists the nine categories of educational level.
Tuki 15

8. However, it is also possible that people conceive of their migration aspirations independently
before seeking the support of their families (see, e.g. Paul, 2015).
9. To access the World Values Survey (WVS) dataset, please visit https://www.worldvaluessurvey.
org/WVSDocumentationWV7.jsp.

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Appendix
Section A
Section B
As part of the TRANSMIT research project, the WZB Berlin Social Science Center,
Germany, conducted a survey in the Southern Nigerian state of Edo in 2021. A total
of 1,638 respondents were interviewed. The interview locations were selected using
multi-stage clustered random sampling.

Table A1. Preferred Migration Destination Countries Among the Population in Edo.

Country Number of respondents

United States 339
Canada 183
United Kingdom 132
Germany 80
United Arab Emirates 43
Italy 26
Ghana 15
Saudi Arabia 14
Australia/France 11
Spain/India 9
South Africa 8
China/Turkey 6
Note: The table shows the twelve most preferred migration destination countries among the population in Edo
and the number of respondents who would like to emigrate there. Respondents were first asked if they would
like to move away from the state of Edo for a period of at least three months (i.e. either domestically or
internationally); those who answered in the affirmative (N = 1,093) were then asked which country they would
like to emigrate to if they could move freely without any institutional restrictions.
18 Africa Spectrum 0(0)

Table A2. Tabulation of Educational Level.

What kind of education did you receive? Ordinal value Frequency %

No formal schooling 0 58 3.79
Informal schooling only (including Koranic schooling) 1 1 0.07
Some primary schooling 2 75 4.91
Primary school completed 3 221 14.45
Intermediate school or some secondary school/high school 4 274 17.92
Secondary school/high school completed 5 563 36.82
Post-secondary qualifications, other than university 6 178 11.64
Some university studies (not graduated) 7 59 3.86
Bachelor degree 8 89 5.82
Master’s degree and above 9 11 0.72
Total 1,529 100.00
Note: The table displays all the categories of the education attained by respondents, the ordinal values assigned to
each category, and the frequency and percentage of respondents in each category.

Grid cells of 5 × 5 km, which were called precincts, were developed using QGIS soft-
ware. These precincts were laid on a shapefile showing the state’s administrative bound-
ary. Each precinct was comprised of smaller 0.5 × 0.5 km grid cells. Precincts were
randomly drawn with replacement, with probabilities corresponding to the population
sizes within each of them. From each of the selected precincts, smaller 0.5 × 0.5 km
grid cells were randomly selected with probabilities corresponding to the size of the
population within them. It is difficult to obtain recent population estimates for Nigeria
from official government sources because the last population census was conducted in
2006. Due to this constraint, the population estimate was obtained from the 2020
WorldPop gridded dataset (Bondarenko et al., 2020).
The smaller grid cells were drawn without replacement. Within each of the smaller
grid cells, an average of twelve households was interviewed. The households were
selected using a random walk approach. The interviewee within the household was
chosen using a simple random draw. Respondents were at least fifteen years old.
Before minors were interviewed, consent was first sought from the household head.
Minor were interviewed only when they also granted consent. Respondents were
informed that participation in the survey was voluntary and they could opt out of the inter-
view at any time.

Author Biography
Daniel Tuki is a senior researcher at the WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Germany. His research
focuses on conflict studies and economic development. His articles have appeared in Democratization,
Economics Letters, Terrorism and Political Violence, Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political
Aggression, Environment and Security, and Global Public Health among others.
Tuki 19

Soutien familial et migration au Nigeria

Résumé
En s’appuyant sur des données d’enquête à grande échelle collectées dans l’État d’Edo,
épicentre de la migration au Nigeria, cette étude analyse la relation entre le soutien
familial, les aspirations migratoires des individus et leur perception des risques
associés à la migration vers l’Europe. Les résultats des régressions montrent que le sou-
tien familial est positivement corrélé aux aspirations migratoires et renforce la confiance
des individus dans leurs chances d’atteindre l’Europe s’ils choisissent de migrer, réduisant
ainsi leur perception des risques migratoires. Les femmes se montrent moins optimistes
que les hommes quant à leurs chances d’atteindre l’Europe.

Mots-clés
Nigeria, aspirations migratoires, perception des risques, soutien familial, Europe, état
d’Edo