GUESSTIMATES

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Quick recap

Guess Estimate

Guesstimates is a combination of two words, 'guess' and 'estimate,' where

you need to make educated/logical guesses and estimations when exact
data isn’t available."
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Key Purpose of Guesstimate

To Evaluate Your Thought Process: Interviewers assess how you

organize and solve problems, showing your ability to think logically
and systematically.

To Test Your Business Knowledge: Your assumptions reveal your

understanding of industries, customers, and real-world situations.

To Check How You Handle Uncertainty: Often, data is incomplete.

Guesstimates test whether you can make intelligent decisions with
limited information.

To Assess Your Communication Skills: Interviewers check if you

can clearly explain your thought process and methods while
tackling a problem.
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Two Approaches to Solve Guesstimates

1 Top-Down

Use the top-down approach if you are more certain about the
maximum possible value.

2 Bottom-Up
2

Use the bottom-up approach if you are more certain about the
values at the granular level.

This guide covers some of the most commonly asked guesstimation

questions in interviews. It also includes practice guesstimates to help you
sharpen your skills.

By practicing these examples, you can improve your ability to estimate

effectively and communicate your reasoning in any setting.
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In this guide, Peter will be the interview candidate, and Tony will be the
interviewer.

INTERVIEW CANDIDATE

Peter

INTERVIEWER

Tony
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Q1: How many iPhones users are there in India at

present?

Let's solve this guesstimate using our 3-step framework:

Clarify

Breakdown

Validate
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1 Clarify:

No, we are just focusing

Are we considering any on iPhones irrespective
particular model? of their model.

2 Breakdown:

Population of India

Let's assume India has a population of about 1.4 billion people.

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Age Distribution

Let's assume the age distribution is as follows: 30% are under 15

years old, 65% are between 15 and 64 years old, and 5% are 65 years
and older.

Under 15 years old = 1.4 billion

* 30%
= 420 million

15–64 years old = 1.4 billion

* 65%
= 910 million
65 years and older = 1.4 billion
* 5%

= 70 million
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Smartphone Peneration Rate

Let's assume that smartphone penetration rates differ by age

group, with 20% for individuals under 15 years old, 85% for those
between 15 and 64 years old, and 30% for the population over 65,
indicating varied levels of technology adoption across generations.

Under 15 years old = 420 million

* 20%
= 84 million

15–64 years old = 910 million

* 85%
= 773.5 million
65 years and older = 70 million
* 30%
= 21 million
Total Smartphone Users = 84 million + 773.5 million + 21 million

= 878.5 million
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Calculation of iPhone Users

Let’s assume that iPhones hold a market share of around 5% among

all smartphone users in India.

Total Smartphone iPhone Market

iPhone Users in India = Users * Share

= 878.5 million
* 5%

= 43.925 million
Therefore, there are approximately 43.93 million iPhone users in India,
based on these assumptions.
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3 Validate:

Sense-check your result to ensure it's reasonable and realistic by asking

yourself a few questions, such as:

Does the output look realistic based on the assumptions made?

Are there external factors that could significantly influence these

estimates?
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Q2: How many biryanis will be sold/day in

Hyderabad?

Let's solve this guesstimate using our 3-step framework:

Clarify

Breakdown

Validate
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1 Clarify:
Asking questions to the interviewer and seeking clarity:

Are we considering all Consider an online

types of outlets selling outlet like Zomato.
biryani, such as
restaurants, street
vendors, and online
delivery services?

Are we looking at an
We are focusing on
average day or specific
weekends.
days like weekends or
holidays which might see
different sales volumes?

We estimate the number of biryanis sold per day in Hyderabad on

weekends through online platforms like Zomato.
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2 Breakdown:

Population of Hyderabad

Let's assume Hyderabad has a population of about 10 million

people.

Proportion of Online Food Orders

Let's assume that 20% of the population orders food online on any
given weekend day.
Potential Online Food Delivery Platform Users

= Total Population
* 20%
= 10,000,000 * 0.20
= 2,000,000
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Assuming Zomato's Market Share

Zomato is one of several popular platforms, we can assume that

Zomato captures about 50% of the online food delivery market
based on market share observations.

Potential Online Food Zomato's

Users using Zomato = Delivery Platform Users * Market Share

= 2,000,000
* 50%

= 2,000,000
* 0.50

= 1,000,000
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Proportion Ordering Biryani

Given the popularity of biryani in Hyderabad, let's estimate that 15%

of the online orders on Zomato include at least one biryani.

Zomato Orders Users using Percentage of orders

Including Biryani
= Zomato * that include biryani

= 1,000,000 * 15%
= 1,000,000 * 0.15
= 150,000 orders
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5 Average Number of Biryanis per Order

The average number of biryanis per order might be around 1.5,

considering individual and group orders.
In this calculation, we are not focusing on the size of each biryani
serving; we are only counting the number of biryanis per order.

Total Biryanis Sold Zomato Orders Average number of

through Zomato
= Including Biryani * biryanis per order

= 150,000 * 1.5
= 225,000 biryanis
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3 Validate:

Sense-check your result to ensure it's reasonable and realistic by asking

yourself a few questions, such as:

Does the output look realistic based on the assumptions made?

Are there external factors that could significantly influence these

estimates?
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Q3: How many cups of tea were consumed in Mumbai

last month?

Let's solve this guesstimate using our 3-step framework:

Clarify

Breakdown

Validate
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1 Clarify:

Are we including tea consumed

in all settings such as homes, Yes, include tea
offices, restaurants, tea stalls, consumed in all settings.
and other public places?

2 Breakdown:
To estimate the number of cups of tea consumed in Mumbai last month,
we can break down the problem with some assumptions and simple
calculations:

Population of Mumbai:

Let's assume Mumbai has a population of about 20 million people.

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Tea Drinking Population:

Not everyone drinks tea. Let's assume that 60% of the population
drinks tea (excluding children and non-tea drinkers).
Tea Drinking Population = Total Population
* 60%
= 20,000,000 * 0.60
= 12,000,000
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Frequency of Consumption:

Let's assume that of the remaining population, 20% are habitual

drinkers, 30% are regular drinkers, and 10% are occasional drinkers
.
Calculate the number of drinkers in each category:

Habitual Drinkers = Tea Drinking Population

* 20%
= 12,000,000 * 0.20
= 2,400,000

Regular Drinkers = Tea Drinking Population

* 30%
= 12,000,000 * 0.30
= 3,600,000

Occasional Drinkers = Tea Drinking Population

* 10%
= 12,000,000 * 0.10
= 1,200,000
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Daily Tea Consumption

A habitual drinker may drink 3 cups per day, a regular drinker might
have 1 cup per day, and an occasional drinker might have 2 cups
per week.
.
Calculate daily tea consumption for each category:

Habitual Drinkers = Number of drinkers

* Cups per Day
= 2,400,000 *3
= 7,200,000

Regular Drinkers = Number of drinkers

* Cups per Day
= 3,600,000 *1
= 3,600,000

Occasional Drinkers = Number of drinkers

* Cups per Day
= 1,200,000 * (2/7)
= 342,857
Total Daily Tea Consumption = 7,200,000 + 3,600,000 + 342,857
= 11,142,857
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5 Monthly Tea Consumption

Assuming last month had 30 days.

Last Month Tea Consumption = Daily Tea Consumption

* 30
= 11,142,857
* 30
= 334,285,710 cups
= 33.43 crores of cups. ​
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3 Validate:

Sense-check your result to ensure it's reasonable and realistic by asking

yourself a few questions, such as:

Does the output look realistic based on the assumptions made?

Are there external factors that could significantly influence these

estimates?
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Q4: How many red-colored Swift cars are there in

Delhi?

Let's solve this guesstimate using our 3-step framework:

Clarify

Breakdown

Validate
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1 Clarify:

Are we considering all

models of the Maruti Let's focus on all models
Suzuki Swift, or are we of the Maruti Suzuki
focusing on a specific Swift, not just specific
model like the Swift ones.
Dzire?

2 Breakdown:

Population of Delhi

Let's assume Delhi has a population of about 20 million people.

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Number of Families in Delhi

Average Size of Families: Let's assume that the average size of

families in Delhi is 4 members per household.

Number of Population of Average Size of

Families in Delhi
= Delhi / Families

= 20,000,000 / 4

= 5,000,000 families
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Proportion of Families Owning Cars

Let's assume that 10% of families in Delhi own cars. Instead of each
family owning exactly one car, let's assume an average of 1.25 cars
per family. This reflects the variability in car ownership, with some
families owning more than one car.

* *
Number of Cars Number of Proportion of Families Average Number of
in Delhi
= Families in Delhi Owning Cars Cars Per Family

= * 10% * 1.25
5,000,000

= 5,000,000 * 0.1 * 1.25

= 500,000 * 1.25
= 625,000 cars.
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Number of Swift Cars in Delhi

Let's assume that the 5% proportion represents the share of Swift

cars relative to the total car population in Delhi. When we say that
5% of all cars in Delhi are Swifts, this means that for every 100 cars
in Delhi, 5 are Swift models.

Number of Swift Cars Number of Proportion of

in Delhi
= Cars in Delhi * Swifts

= * 5%
625,000

= 625,000 * 0.05
= 31,250 Swift cars
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5 Number of Red Color Swifts in Delhi

Proportion of Red Color in Swifts: This proportion indicates the

percentage of Swift cars that are painted red. The assumption that
20% of Swift cars are red means that for every 100 Swift cars, 20 are
red.

Number of Red Color Number of Swift Cars Proportion of

Swifts in Delhi
= in Delhi * Red Color in Swifts

= 31,250* 20%
= 31,250 * 0.2
= 6,250 red Swift cars
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3 Validate:

Sense-check your result to ensure it's reasonable and realistic by asking

yourself a few questions, such as:

Does the output look realistic based on the assumptions made?

Are there external factors that could significantly influence these

estimates?
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Q5: How many people live in your gated community?

Let's solve this guesstimate using our 3-step framework:

Clarify

Breakdown

Validate
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1 Clarify:
Asking questions to the interviewer and seeking clarity:

To clarify further, I am That seems good.

considering a gated
community with 2BHKs and
3BHKs across 11 towers.

Here is my assumption: Proceed further with

each tower has 13 your assumptions.
floors, and each floor
has 10 flats.

We're estimating the total number of people residing within the gated
community.
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2 Breakdown:

Calculate the Total Number of Flats

To calculate the total number of flats in the gated community based

on the assumptions provided earlier, let's go through the detailed
calculation:

Flats per Tower = Number of Floors per Tower

* Flats per Floor

= 13
* 10
= 130

Total Number
of Flats
= Flats per Tower
* Number of Towers

= 130 * 10
= 1300
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Calculate the Total Potential Population

Since the flats are a combination of 2BHKs and 3BHKs, let's assume
the average number of people per flat is 3.5.

Total Potential
Population:
= Total Number of Flats
* Average Family Size

= 1300
* 3.5
= 4550 people
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Occupancy Rate of the Community

There might be a case where not all the flats in the community are
occupied. Therefore, let's assume a 90% occupancy rate for the
community.

Actual Total Potential Occupancy Rate of

Population
= Population * the Community

= 4550
* 90%
= *
4550 0.9

= 4095 people
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3 Validate:

Sense-check your result to ensure it's reasonable and realistic by asking

yourself a few questions, such as:

Does the output look realistic based on the assumptions made?

Are there external factors that could significantly influence these

estimates?
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Q6: Estimating the total length of roads in a city

Let's solve this guesstimate using our 3-step framework:

Clarify

Breakdown

Validate
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1 Clarify:

Consider your own city.

Which type of city should
I consider?

2 Breakdown:

Define the City’s Area

Determine the Area of Hyderabad: Hyderabad, one of India's major

cities, covers an area of approximately 650 square kilometers.
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Estimate Road Density

For urban areas like Hyderabad, it's reasonable to assume that

10-20% of the total area is covered by roads.
Given Hyderabad's extensive infrastructure and urban planning, a
mid-range estimate of 15% seems appropriate.

Area of Roads = Area

* Road Density
= 650 km²
* 15%
= 650 km²
* 0.15
= 97.5 km²
* 1,000,000 m²/km²
= 97,500,000 m²
Since 1 square kilometer (km²) is equivalent to 1,000,000 square
meters (m²),
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Calculate Total Length of Roads

Assume Average Road Width: For calculation purposes, let's

assume an average road width of 10 meters. This width is typical for
urban roads, accounting for both lanes and sidewalks.

Total Road Length = Area of Roads / Average Road Width

= 97,500,000 m² / 10 m

= 9,750,000 m

= 9,750,000 m
* (1 km/1,000 m)
= 9,750 km

(1 km/1,000 m): Since the total length has been calculated in meters,
we need to convert it to kilometers for easier understanding and
practical use, especially when dealing with large distances.
1 kilometer equals 1,000 meters.
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3 Validate:

Sense-check your result to ensure it's reasonable and realistic by asking

yourself a few questions, such as:

Does the output look realistic based on the assumptions made?

Are there external factors that could significantly influence these

estimates?
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Q7: How many flights are in the air above India at the
moment?

Let's solve this guesstimate using our 3-step framework:

Clarify

Breakdown

Validate
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1 Clarify:
Asking questions to the interviewer and seeking clarity:

Are we targeting any

We are targeting
particular category:
domestic flights.
international or domestic?

Are we considering all We are considering

flight types, including only commercial
commercial passenger planes.
flights, cargo flights, and
charter flights?

Yes, we are focusing

Are we focusing on any
on peak hours.
specific time, such as
peak hours?
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2 Breakdown:
From the previous step, we got clarity that we're focusing on domestic
commercial flights over India during peak hours.

Next, we will break down the problem into manageable parts:

Number of Airports (N):

India has approximately 100 airports that handle commercial

flights.
Busy Airports: Assume there are about 10 busy airports (e.g.,
Mumbai, Delhi) with 4 runways each, with 2 runways used for
take-offs.
International Airports (Excluding Busy Airports):
About 25 airports with 2 runways each, with 1 runway used for
take-offs.
Occasional Airports: The remaining 65 airports with 1 runway each
used for take-offs.
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Number of Runways for take-off per Airport (R):

Busy Airports: 2 runways

International Airports: 1 runway
Occasional Airports: 1 runway

Flight Frequency (F):

Busy Airports: 1 flight takes off every 5 minutes

International Airports: 1 flight takes off every 10 minutes
Occasional Airports: 1 flight takes off every 30 minutes
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Using these assumptions, we calculated the number of flights taking off per
hour from these categories:

Flights per Hour = N*R* ( 60

F
)
N = Number of Airports
R = Number of Runways for take-off per Airport
F = Flight Frequency

Busy Airports’ Flights per Hour = 10 * 2 * (60 / 5)

= 240

International Airports' Flights per Hour = 25 * 1 * (60 / 10)

= 150

Occasional Airports' Flights per Hour = 65 * 1 * (60 / 30)

= 130

Total Flights per Hour = 240+150+130

= 520

This gives us a total of 520 flights per hour across all airport categories.
Assuming that 90% of these are domestic flights, then we have about 468
domestic flights per hour.

Domestic Flights Per Hour = 520 * (90/100)

= 468
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Do you think this is the final

answer? No, it is not the final
answer. This is because..

The question asked was, 'How many flights are in the air above India at the
moment?'

However, the answer we received relates to the number of flights taking off
per hour.

Calculate Total Flights in the Air at the Moment:

For domestic flights, if each flight lasts about 2 hours, then at any
given time:
Domestic Flights in the Air = 468 flights per hour × 2 hours
= 936 flights
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Explanation:

8 AM : Landed 9 AM : In air 10 AM : In air

The number of flights in the air at this moment includes those that took off
during the current hour as well as those that took off previously and have
not yet landed.

Let's assume the current time is 10 AM.

Given that the average flight duration for domestic planes is 2 hours, the
flights that took off at 9 AM are still in the air and will be included in the
count.

However, the flights that took off at 8 AM would have already landed and
thus are not considered.
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3 Validate:

Sense-check your result to ensure it's reasonable and realistic by asking

yourself a few questions, such as:

Does the output look realistic based on the assumptions made?

Are there external factors that could significantly influence these

estimates?
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Practice Questions
Below is a set of questions for your hands-on practice. You can use either
the top-down or bottom-up approach.

The top-down approach is generally faster and thus recommended for most
cases. The bottom-up approach is useful when you are more certain about
the values at a granular level.

Feel free to choose the method that best suits your level of information and
comfort with the problem at hand.

1. How many passengers travel daily on the Delhi Metro?

2. How many total Gmail users are there in India?

3. Estimate the number of office chairs sold in India.

4. How many Android users are there in India?

5. Calculate the total number of speed breakers in Jaipur city.

6. How can you calculate the number of weddings in India per year?
7. What is the total number of people who get a new job in India each
year?
8. What is the number of smartphones sold in India per year?

9. How much does a Panipuri Wala earn on average per day?

10. Estimate the total number of ATMs in India.

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ALL THE BEST!