The Mobile

Economy
Sub-Saharan Africa
2024
The Mobile
Economy
Sub-Saharan Africa
2024
The GSMA is a global organisation unifying the mobile
ecosystem to discover, develop and deliver innovation
foundational to positive business environments and
societal change. Our vision is to unlock the full power of
connectivity so that people, industry and society thrive.
Representing mobile operators and organisations across
the mobile ecosystem and adjacent industries, the GSMA
delivers for its members across three broad pillars:
Connectivity for Good, Industry Services and Solutions,
and Outreach. This activity includes advancing policy,
tackling today’s biggest societal challenges, underpinning
the technology and interoperability that make mobile
work, and providing the world’s largest platform to
convene the mobile ecosystem at the MWC and M360
series of events.

We invite you to find out more at gsma.com

Follow the GSMA on X: @GSMA

Follow the GSMA on LinkedIn

GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile

operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of
authoritative industry reports and research. Our data
covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every
country worldwide – from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is
the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics
available, comprising tens of millions of individual data
points, updated daily.

GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators,

vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party
industry players, to support strategic decision-making
and long-term investment planning. The data is used as
an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the
media and by the industry itself.

Our team of analysts and experts produce regular

thought-leading research reports across a range of
industry topics.

www.gsmaintelligence.com

[email protected]

Copyright © 2024 GSMA

Contents
Executive summary 2

1. The mobile industry in numbers 10

2. Mobile industry trends 21

2.1 5G: advanced technologies are a long-term prospect 22

2.2 Operating environment: challenges underpin market consolidation 24

trend

2.3 Satellite: momentum builds behind aerial connectivity 27

2.4 Generative AI: exploring use cases and growing partnerships 29

2.5 GSMA Open Gateway: operators aim to unlock new monetisation 31

opportunities

3. Mobile industry impact 33

3.1 Expanding rural connectivity 34

3.2 The mobile industry’s impact on the SDGs 35

4. Mobile industry enablers 37

4.1 Improving the affordability of mobile services to close the 38

connectivity gap

4.2 Using universal service funds effectively 40

4.3 Adopting spectrum policy for inclusive digital development 42

Executive
summary
Driving growth and innovation
Mobile connectivity is a key driver of digital The adoption of 4G continues to rise in the
transformation and socioeconomic growth in region and is forecast to account for 50% of total
Sub-Saharan Africa. Governments and businesses connections by 2030. 5G adoption is accelerating
are increasingly using 4G and 5G networks and forecast to contribute $10 billion to the
alongside technologies such as AI and IoT to region's economy by 2030, accounting for 6%
enhance productivity and service delivery. of mobile's total economic impact. Meanwhile,
Despite growing demand for mobile, a significant the mobile ecosystem supported 1.5 million jobs
usage gap persists. This underscores the need directly and more than 2.2 million jobs in other
for efforts by operators to address the barriers sectors in 2023.
to mobile internet adoption, such as device
affordability, online safety and digital skills.

Executive summary 2 / 46
Key trends shaping
the mobile ecosystem

5G: advanced technologies remain a

future prospect
Operators in pioneer 5G markets around the
world are increasingly moving towards more
advanced forms of 5G to unlock new use cases
and monetisation opportunities. However, such
technologies remain a distant prospect in Sub-
Saharan Africa. Operators need to prove the
business case for their initial 5G investments
(using non-standalone architecture) before
committing to more advanced forms of the
technology. Operators and their partners also
need to accelerate the development of relevant
5G use cases and applications for enterprises in
the region.

Industry in context: challenges lead

to market consolidation
The telecoms industry in Sub-Saharan Africa
faces significant challenges, driving market
consolidation. Key issues include inflation and
currency volatility (which increase capital costs),
high sector-specific taxation for operators, and
escalating energy costs due to unreliable grids
and a reliance on diesel. Such factors place
considerable financial pressure on operators,
resulting in market exits or consolidations in
some instances. The challenging environment
threatens investment in the sector, which is
crucial if the region's digital divide is to be
reduced.

Investment in the
sector is crucial if
the region's digital
divide is to be
reduced

Executive summary 3 / 46
Aerial connectivity: interest grows in Generative AI: operators move to
the evolving NTN market realise its potential
Aerial connectivity will play an important role in As digital transformation accelerates in Sub-
realising universal connectivity in Sub-Saharan Saharan Africa, AI is coming to the fore. The
Africa. Although satellite solutions have been United Nations forecasts it could contribute
offered for several decades, the emergence of up to $1.5 trillion to the region's economy by
low Earth orbit (LEO) and high-altitude platform 2030. Mobile operators are gradually adopting
systems (HAPS) has spurred interest in non- generative AI (genAI), focusing on customer
terrestrial networks (NTNs). SpaceX’s Starlink has service, network optimisation and operational
been expanding rapidly across the region. Mobile efficiency. Strategic partnerships are underway
operators are also active in aerial connectivity to help operators maximise the value of the new
– mostly through partnerships with satellite technology. Despite momentum, challenges
companies. persist, including a shortage of skilled AI
professionals and data privacy concerns.

GSMA Open Gateway: momentum

builds
Although it has been possible to expose network
APIs for some time, operators have struggled
to adopt a standardised approach that achieves
scale. However, recent initiatives by the mobile
industry have sought to provide fresh momentum
behind developing a common set of network
APIs. By June 2024, 53 operator groups
had signed up to the GSMA Open Gateway
initiative, representing 240 mobile networks
and accounting for 67% of mobile connections
globally.

Operator commitments are beginning to translate

into commercially available network APIs. In
February 2024, South Africa became the first
country in Sub-Saharan Africa to implement
Open Gateway APIs when Cell C, MTN and
Telkom launched the Number Verification and SIM
Swap APIs, with applications in fraud detection
and digital security.

Executive summary 4 / 46
Policies for growth and innovation
Despite a strong appetite for mobile in the region, • Implement the right spectrum policies for
Sub-Saharan Africa has a high usage gap of 60% – inclusive digital development – Operators need
the highest in the world. This suggests challenges new spectrum capacity to provide consistent
in fulfilling the near-universal broadband speeds to more users as 5G services expand.
connectivity envisaged by governments in the The right amount of capacity helps minimise
African Union’s Digital Transformation Strategy the number of base stations needed, which can
For Africa 2020–2030. To address the challenges, keep costs down and save on carbon emissions.
policymakers can look to the following actions: The outcome of WRC-23 provides the next steps
on the road to enabling low- and mid-band
• Improve the affordability of mobile services to
spectrum to be used for 4G and 5G connectivity.
close the connectivity gap – Urgent reform to
This spectrum now needs to be incorporated
taxation is needed to address the affordability of
into the long-term spectrum roadmaps of
mobile service and smartphones, which is a key
administrations.
barrier to mobile broadband adoption.

• Use universal service funds (USFs) effectively

– Insights from a GSMA study show that many
USFs in Africa are underperforming and have
Urgent reform is
become ineffective in closing the connectivity needed to address
gap. It is imperative to reform structural and the affordability of
operational aspects of USFs across Africa to
improve their effectiveness.
mobile service and
smartphones

Executive summary 5 / 46
The Mobile Economy
Sub-Saharan Africa
Unique Mobile
mobile internet
subscribers users

2023
527m
44% penetration rate*
2023
320m
27% penetration rate*

2030
751m
53% penetration rate*
2030
518m
37% penetration rate*

CAGR
2023-2030 4.5% CAGR
2023-2030 6.2%
*Percentage of population *Percentage of population

SIM 4G Percentage of connections

(excluding licensed cellular IoT)

connections
(excluding licensed cellular IoT)
2023
31%
2023
1.0bn
88% penetration rate*
2030
50%
2030
1.4bn 5G Percentage of connections
(excluding licensed cellular IoT)

1.2%
103% penetration rate*
2023

4.1%
17%
CAGR
2023-2030
2030
*Percentage of population
Smartphones Licensed
Percentage of connections
cellular
IoT connections
2023
51%
2030
81% 2023
27m
Operator
revenues and
2030

51m
investment
Mobile's
2023
$38bn
Total revenues
contribution
to GDP

2030
$61bn
Total revenues
2023
$140bn
7% of GDP

$62bn $170bn
Operator capex
for the period
2030
2023–2030:

Public Employment
funding
2023
2023
1.5m jobs
$20bn Directly supported by the
mobile ecosystem

Mobile ecosystem contribution to

public funding (before regulatory Plus 2.2m
and spectrum fees) indirect jobs
Subscriber and technology trends
ECCAS Technology mix* Subscriber penetration

26+48+260K 4+35+529K
2023
9% 4%
26%
36%
26% 35% 2030
46%
2023 2030 Smartphone adoption
2023
48%
52% 42%
2030
2G 3G 4G 5G 69%

ECOWAS Technology mix* Subscriber penetration

13+60+261K 1+34+4817K
2023
0.6% 1%
13%
34% 48%
26% 17% 2030
60% 57%
2023 2030 Smartphone adoption
2023

48% 54%
2030
2G 3G 4G 5G 83%

SADC Technology mix* Subscriber penetration

14+45+392K 2+27+4922K
2023
2.4% 14% 2%
43%
39% 22% 27% 2030
51%
2023 2030 Smartphone adoption
2023
45%
53%
49% 2030
2G 3G 4G 5G 81%

EAC Technology mix* Subscriber penetration

18+58+231K 4+40+4412K
2023
0.4% 4%
19% 12% 40%
23% 40% 2030
49%
2023 2030 Smartphone adoption
2023
58% 44% 40%
2030
2G 3G 4G 5G 76%

Ethiopia Technology mix* Subscriber penetration

1+57+411K 1+20+6910K
<1% 2023
0.8% 1 % 10%
20% 40%
41% 2030
57%
50%
2023 2030 Smartphone adoption
2023
69% 36%
2030
2G 3G 4G 5G 80%

* Percentage of total connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT)

Note: Totals may not add up due to rounding.

Executive summary 8 / 46
Executive summary 9 / 46
01
The mobile industry
in numbers
The usage gap in By the end of 2023, nearly 44% of the population
in Sub-Saharan Africa subscribed to a mobile

Sub-Saharan Africa
service, amounting to 527 million subscribers.
Mobile internet penetration has been growing,

remains significant,
reaching 27% in the region by the end of 2023.
Despite progress, the usage gap remains

at 60%
significant, at 60%. Mobile operators and other
stakeholders continue to implement initiatives to
reduce both the usage and coverage gaps, with
the goal of enhancing digital inclusion and driving
economic development across the region.

The landscape for mobile internet connectivity

varies significantly across Sub-Saharan Africa.
In countries such as Chad, the Central African
Republic and Mozambique, penetration levels
remain below 15%, while in more advanced markets
such as South Africa and Seychelles, penetration
exceeds 50%. The main challenges contributing to
this disparity include affordability (particularly the
cost of smartphones) and limited digital skills.

Figure 1
Coverage gap
Sub-Saharan Africa: connectivity, usage gap Usage gap
and coverage gap, 2023 Connected

Percentage of population

500m

230m 210m 42%

160m
90m
19% 18%
13%
8%

Connected to Connected to Covered, have a Covered, but no Not covered by a

mobile internet with mobile internet but phone, but not using device to use mobile mobile broadband
smartphone not via smartphone mobile internet internet network

Source: GSMA Intelligence

The mobile industry in numbers 11 / 46

By 2030, half of By the end of the decade, 4G adoption in Sub-
Saharan Africa is expected to reach 50%, making

connections in
it the dominant technology. Although 3G currently
accounts for the largest proportion of total

Sub-Saharan Africa
connections, 4G is projected to overtake 3G by
2027.

will be on 4G 5G is gathering momentum in the region, with

operators investing in network modernisation to
prepare for its deployment. In March 2024, Somtel
and Telesom became the first mobile operators in
Somalia to launch commercial 5G services, with
initial rollouts in the country’s capital, Hargeisa.
5G adoption in the region is expected to gain
momentum in the second half of this decade, rising
to 17% by 2030.

As countries in Sub-Saharan Africa transition to

more advanced technologies such as 4G and
5G, South Africa stands out as the only country
to announce plans to sunset both its 2G and 3G
networks (by 2027).

Figure 2
Sub-Saharan Africa: mobile adoption by technology
Percentage of total connections

60%

50% 4G 50%

40%

30% 3G 31%

20%
5G 17%

10%

0%
2G 2%

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Source: GSMA Intelligence

The mobile industry in numbers 12 / 46

By 2030, 5G The pace of 5G adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa
varies significantly across the region. South Africa,

adoption will reach

Nigeria and Kenya will account for more than half
of all 5G connections in 2030. Although the growth

17% in Sub-Saharan
of 5G in the region will be steady, a larger share
of the customer base will still be migrating to 4G,

Africa
which will remain the dominant technology for
some time.

To meet increasing demand for broadband, FWA is

emerging as a pivotal technology. FWA can act as
a primary broadband connection and help improve
coverage in the region. While 4G FWA has been
a first step, 5G’s potential is coming to the fore,
offering fibre-like speeds. 5G FWA services have
already been launched in Angola, South Africa,
Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Figure 3
2024–2030 increase
5G adoption 2023
Percentage of total connections

5G connections
(2030)

GCC states 95% 99m

Developed Asia Pacific 93% 306m

North America 90% 461m

Greater China 88% 1.81bn

Europe 80% 656m

Latin America 54% 426m

Rest of MENA 44% 340m

Rest of Asia Pacific 40% 1.14bn

Sub-Saharan Africa 17% 250m

Source: GSMA Intelligence

The mobile industry in numbers 13 / 46

Mobile data traffic Mobile data traffic will grow by almost 6 GB per
connection, per month in Sub-Saharan Africa

per connection in
between 2023 and 2030. This will be driven by the
expansion of mobile broadband network coverage,

Sub-Saharan Africa
greater access to smartphones, and rising demand
for data-intensive content such as gaming and

to quadruple by the
video streaming.

Growth will be fastest in the ECCAS region, led

end of the decade by Angola, Chad and Equatorial Guinea, all of

which are expected to record a more than 10-fold
increase in mobile data traffic during the period.
That said, mobile data traffic per connection in
ECCAS will remain below average in Sub-Saharan
Africa, reflecting the lower levels of 4G and 5G
penetration in ECCAS compared with SADC and
ECOWAS.

Figure 4
Mobile data traffic
GB per month

Region 2023 2030 Increase

SADC 1.7 7.2 ×4.2

ECOWAS 2.4 10.1 ×4.2

ECCAS 1.1 6.8 ×6.0

EAC 1.5 5.9 ×4.0

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.9 8.0 ×4.2

Global 13.0 48.0 ×3.7

Top five smartphone markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2030

Number of smartphone connections

Nigeria South Africa Ethiopia Tanzania Kenya

230m 140m 97m 92m 72m

Source: GSMA Intelligence

The mobile industry in numbers 14 / 46

Licensed cellular By 2030, Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to
have more than 50 million licensed cellular IoT

IoT connections in
connections, with South Africa contributing more
than 50% to the total. The expansion of 4G and 5G

Sub-Saharan Africa
networks in the region will drive significant growth
in IoT applications. Government initiatives as part

will almost double

of smart-city programmes are also helping boost
IoT deployments.

between 2023 Mobile operators are helping the development of

smart city solutions by providing connectivity and

and 2030 building new use cases through partnerships. In

Sub-Saharan Africa, smart utility IoT connections
will increase almost six-fold between 2021 and
2030, as highlighted by GSMA research.1 By
2030, utilities will account for nearly 30% of IoT
connections in the region. Operators have been
collaborating in trials deploying IoT solutions,
with many using low-power, wide area (LPWA)
networks.

Figure 5 Ethiopia
Sub-Saharan Africa: licensed cellular IoT connections Kenya
Nigeria
Million
Rest of Sub-Saharan Africa
South Africa

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Source: GSMA Intelligence

1. IoT and Essential Utility Services: Opportunities in low- and middle-income countries, GSMA, 2023

The mobile industry in numbers 15 / 46

By 2030, mobile Mobile revenues have been growing steadily in the
region. Growth is being driven by the expansion of

revenues will
4G and 5G networks, the rise in the use of mobile
data, and the growing adoption of technologies

reach $61 billion in

such as IoT. Annual mobile revenue growth is
expected to stay in positive territory through to

Sub-Saharan Africa
2030.

Mobile operators in Sub-Saharan Africa have

invested more than $28 billion in mobile capex
over the past five years, with mobile capex/
revenue at 19% at the end of 2023.

Figure 6
Revenue
Sub-Saharan Africa: mobile revenues
Capex to revenue (%)
and capex-to-revenue ratio
Billion

19%
$70
17%
16% 17%
15% 15%
$60 15%

$50 12%

$40

$30

$20

$10

$0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Source: GSMA Intelligence

The mobile industry in numbers 16 / 46

The mobile sector In 2023, mobile technologies and services
generated 7.3% of GDP across Sub-Saharan Africa,

added $140 billion

a contribution that amounted to $140 billion of
economic value added. The greatest benefits came

of economic value
from the productivity effects generated by the use
of mobile services across the economy, reaching

in Sub-Saharan
$90 billion. The direct contribution by the mobile
ecosystem was also significant, at $40 billion.

Africa in 2023 The mobile ecosystem comprises three

categories: mobile operators, infrastructure and
equipment providers; and content and services.
The infrastructure and equipment category
includes network equipment providers, device
manufacturers and IoT companies. Meanwhile,
content and services encompasses content, mobile
application and service providers, distributors and
retailers, and mobile cloud services.

Figure 7
Sub-Saharan Africa: total economic contribution of the mobile industry, 2023
Billion, percentage of 2023 GDP

$90 $140

4.2%

Mobile ecosystem
7.3%

$10
$5
$5 0.6%
$30 0.4%
0.4%

1.6%

Mobile Infrastructure Content and Indirect Productivity Total

operators and services
equipment
providers

Note: Totals may not add up due to rounding.

Source: GSMA Intelligence

The mobile industry in numbers 17 / 46

At the end of the By 2030, mobile’s contribution will reach
$170 billion in Sub-Saharan Africa, driven

decade, mobile’s
mostly by the continued expansion of the
mobile ecosystem and verticals increasingly

economic contribution
benefitting from the improvements in
productivity and efficiency brought about by

will reach $170 billion

the take-up of mobile services.

in Sub-Saharan Africa

Figure 8
Sub-Saharan Africa: economic impact of mobile
Billion

$170
$140

2023 2030
Source: GSMA Intelligence

The mobile Mobile operators and the wider mobile ecosystem

provided direct employment to around 1.5 million

ecosystem in
people in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2023. In addition,
economic activity in the ecosystem generated

Sub-Saharan Africa
more than 2.2 million jobs in other sectors, meaning
almost 4 million jobs were directly or indirectly

supported around 3.7

supported.

million jobs in 2023

Figure 9
Sub-Saharan Africa: employment impact of the mobile industry, 2023
Jobs (million)

2.2
3.7

1.5

Direct Indirect Total

Source: GSMA Intelligence

The mobile industry in numbers 18 / 46

The fiscal In 2023, the mobile sector in Sub-Saharan Africa
made a substantial contribution to the funding of

contribution of the
the public sector, with almost $20 billion raised
through taxes. The larger contribution came from

mobile ecosystem
services, VAT, sales taxes and excise duties, which
generated $10 billion, followed by corporate taxes

reached $20 billion

on profits at $5 billion.

in 2023

Figure 10
Sub-Saharan Africa: fiscal contribution of the mobile industry, 2023
Billion
$1

$5

$3
$20

$10

Services VAT, Handset VAT, Corporate taxes Employment Total

sales taxes and sales taxes, on profits taxes and social
excise duties excise and security
customs duties

Note: Totals may not add up due to rounding.

Source: GSMA Intelligence

The mobile industry in numbers 19 / 46

5G will add 5G’s contribution to the economy in Sub-Saharan
Africa is expected to reach $10 billion in 2030,

$10 billion to the

accounting for 6% of the overall economic impact
of mobile. Much of this will materialise over the

economy in
next five years. Towards the end of the decade, 5G
economic benefits will level off as the technology

Sub-Saharan Africa
starts to achieve scale and widespread adoption.

While 5G is expected to benefit most sectors of

in 2030 the Sub-Saharan African economy, some industries

will benefit more than others due to their ability
to incorporate 5G use cases in their business.
Over the next seven years, 30% of the benefits
are expected to originate from the manufacturing
sector, driven by applications including smart
factories, smart grids and IoT-enabled products.
Other sectors that will experience significant
benefits are the information & communication
industry and the public administration sector at
13% and 7%, respectively.

Figure 11 Other
Sub-Saharan Africa: annual 5G contribution by industry Construction and real estate
Finance
Billion
Information and communication
Services
Public administration
Manufacturing

$12

$10

$8 33%

7%
$6
5%
13%
$4 6%
7%

$2
30%

$0

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Source: GSMA Intelligence

The mobile industry in numbers 20 / 46

02
Mobile industry
trends
2.1
5G: advanced technologies are a
long-term prospect
5G technology is now available in more than 100 Around the world, FWA continues to be an
countries around the world. As of September important use case for 5G, in both the consumer
2024, 285 operators in 114 countries had launched and enterprise segments. 5G FWA is particularly
mobile 5G services. The number of 5G connections needed in areas where consumers and enterprises
will reach 2 billion globally by the end of 2024, have little choice of provider or where fibre
accounting for nearly a quarter of total mobile deployment may not be cost effective. This is
connections. In several countries, notably China, particularly true in Sub-Saharan Africa, where
South Korea and the US, 5G adoption has reached demand for enhanced connectivity is not being
mass-market levels. In the US, 5G is expected to met by other connectivity solutions, particularly
account for nearly two thirds of total connections fibre. 5G FWA is present in more than half of the
by the end of 2024. 34 live 5G networks across 21 countries in the
region, as of September 2024.

Taking steps towards advanced 5G technologies

Operators in pioneer 5G markets around the world NR-Light). The reduced complexity of NR-Light
are increasingly moving to more advanced forms devices contributes to cost-efficiency, a smaller
of 5G to unlock new use cases and monetisation device footprint and longer battery life due to
opportunities. However, these technologies lower power consumption. A range of use cases
remain a distant prospect in Sub-Saharan Africa. will benefit from RedCap – notably, wearables,
Operators elsewhere have started deploying 5G video monitoring and telematics.
networks based on standalone (SA) architecture,
Operators are also looking to leverage
which offers capabilities including network
5G-Advanced to deliver new solutions for
slicing – allocating network resources dynamically
consumers and enterprises. As part of 3GPP
according to specific service-level agreements.
Release 18 in 2024, 5G-Advanced is the next
As of June 2024, 52 operators around the world
milestone in the 5G era and will enhance mobility
had launched commercial 5G SA networks, with a
by enabling uplink and multicast with better
further 10 expected to launch in 2024.
latency. This will increase accuracy for extended
Operators in other regions have also started reality (XR) applications and improve the
testing and implementing 5G reduced capability reliability of AI/ML data-driven designs. The GSMA
(RedCap) solutions, which serve as a platform for Intelligence Network Transformation Survey 2023
the successful migration of IoT applications to 5G shows that 5G multicast and low-cost IoT top
networks. 3GPP Release 17 introduced the RedCap the list of 5G-Advanced use cases for operators
user equipment category for energy- and cost- (Figure 12).
efficient 5G IoT connectivity (also known as 5G

Mobile industry trends 22 / 46

 Figure 12
Rank 1
5G-Advanced: 5G multicast and low-cost IoT are priority use cases
Rank 2
Which 5G-Advanced use cases and applications are most important
to your network transformation priorities? (Top two choices)
Percentage of operators (globally)

5G multicast services 52% 29%

Low-cost IoT support 23% 45%

Enhanced integration with

satellite resources 20% 18%

Enhanced integration
with drone resources 4% 4%

Improved device
positioning accuracy 1% 2%

Improved AR/VR support 2%

Source: GSMA Intelligence Operators in Focus: Network Transformation Survey 2023

The shift to more advanced forms of 5G is signed a memorandum of understanding for

progressing slowly in Sub-Saharan Africa. strategic cooperation on Net5.5G, which the
Operators need to prove the business case for vendor says can offer speeds 10 times faster than
their initial 5G investments before committing 5G (delivering peak uplink rates of 1 Gbps and
to more advanced forms. That said, there are downlink rates of 10 Gbps). It can also improve
signs that some operators in the region are keen latency and enable massive machine-type
to explore the potential of advanced forms of communications.
5G. In June 2024, MTN South Africa and Huawei

Private networks offer a route into the enterprise market

Many advanced 5G technologies are particularly over 4G, including faster data transmission, lower
suited to use cases and applications in the latency and the ability to connect to more edge
enterprise segment. Operators and their partners devices. MTN is among those at the forefront
need to accelerate the development of suitable of private 5G in Sub-Saharan Africa, having
5G use cases and applications for businesses deployed several private 5G networks for the
in Sub-Saharan Africa. The dispersed nature mining industry, enabling remote monitoring,
of large enterprises in many countries in Sub- swift response to emergencies, and safety
Saharan Africa often makes it difficult to serve improvements.
them via public networks, particularly those
For mobile operators, private networks are an
located in remote areas where the deployment of
important business case in the 5G era, with
conventional 5G networks may not be feasible in
opportunities to create new revenue streams and
the near term. As a result, there is growing interest
serve additional enterprise customers. Operators
in private networks. Private networks have been
already have a host of assets and capabilities
deployed on 4G spectrum for several years in
to capitalise on, including access to spectrum,
sectors such as mining and utilities. However, the
extensive local footprints, and experience in
arrival of 5G has given new impetus to private
network deployment and operation.
networks, with many performance advantages

Mobile industry trends 23 / 46

2.2
Operating environment: challenges
underpin market consolidation trend
The mobile industry in Sub-Saharan Africa 5G, AI and IoT. However, the impetus to invest
contributes significantly to the social and and continue providing transformative digital
economic development of the region. For this to technology is likely to be hampered by the soaring
be sustained, continued investment in the sector cost of doing business, driven by changes in
is necessary, especially in technologies such as macroeconomic fundamentals.

Mobile industry trends 24 / 46

Table 1
Factors impacting the operating environment in Sub-Saharan Africa

Inflation and Exchange-rate fluctuations tend to impact inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa through
currency volatility exchange rate pass-through. When the depreciation of a local currency against
the US dollar persists, inflation puts pressure on the cost of doing business.
Given that most of the capital investments in telecoms in Sub-Saharan Africa are
denominated in foreign currency, currency depreciation or devaluation leads to
increased capital costs for operators.

In Nigeria, for example, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that headline
inflation increased to 34.2% in June 2024, from 22.8% in June 2023. The
inflationary pressure is mostly driven by currency depreciation, with the official
exchange rate depreciating by more than 90% in the same period. This has
impacted the financial performance of operators in the country, with MTN and
Airtel reporting losses in FY 2023, for example.

High and targeted Targeted taxation, such as excise duty on selected telecoms services, continues to
taxation negatively affect adoption of mobile services. In the 18 countries in Sub-Saharan
Africa where data is available, the mobile sector paid an estimated $9 billion in
taxes and fees in 2021, representing 30% of mobile sector revenues, on average.

Mobile sector-specific taxes are a key contributor to total government tax

revenues. On average, sector-specific taxes represent approximately 9% of
total mobile market revenues. Sector-specific taxation causes mobile sector tax
payments as a proportion of total government tax revenues to be higher than the
sector’s size in the economy (measured by market revenues as a proportion of
GDP). Guinea, DRC and Niger have the highest levels of targeted taxation in the
region. This impacts the sustainability of investment in these markets, given that
returns are not predictable.

High and escalating Operators in Sub-Saharan Africa have limited access to affordable and reliable
energy costs energy from the national grid, including in large countries such as South Africa,
DRC, Nigeria and Ethiopia. This results in an over-reliance on expensive alternative
sources such as diesel, which is not sustainable in the long run and challenges the
industry's ability to realise net-zero targets by 2050.

In Nigeria, for instance, the industry has seen escalating energy costs, with diesel
and petrol prices increasing by 66% and 257%, respectively, in 2023. Meanwhile,
in Kenya, energy costs have increased by 63% over the last year, according to
Safaricom, which intends to use solar to power at least 50% of its sites by 2050.
In the DRC, operators face environmental taxes for providing backup diesel
generators at non-serviced sites and are thus effectively penalised for providing
energy redundancy.

High spectrum GSMA research shows that, on average, African countries (and those generally
licensing fees more indebted) have priced their spectrum significantly higher than others
globally. Africa's median unit price of spectrum is four times that in the developed
world. There is also a direct correlation between spectrum licensing fees and
coverage and quality of service. Higher licensing fees directly impact coverage
due to weakened incentives to invest.

Source: GSMA Intelligence

Mobile industry trends 25 / 46

Operators turn to consolidation to sustain investment
As with any other industry, investors in telecoms • In December 2023, MTN agreed to sell its
have to make rational investment decisions Guinea-Bissau and Guinea operations to Telecel.
based on available resources and sustainable The sale was finalised in August 2024. MTN sold
returns on investment. If the challenges across both companies for $1 each, reflecting their
Sub-Saharan Africa persist, investors will likely financial struggles. It previously disclosed it was
rethink their exposure to the markets. This is exiting both markets due to the increased cost
already happening, with operators increasingly of doing business, which made it untenable to
considering market consolidation and, in some operate sustainably.
extreme cases, a market exit to remain afloat in
• In Kenya, Telkom Kenya opted out of a planned
response to the current situation.
merger with Airtel Kenya. Although the
Recent years have seen significant shifts in market transaction was annulled due to technicalities,
structure. Examples include the following: it is evident that Telkom Kenya faced escalating
costs.
• Vodafone Group has scaled down its activities
in Africa, selling its stake in Vodafone Ghana to • Millicom (Tigo) exited Africa in 2022 with the
Telecel, and part of its stake in Safaricom Kenya sale of its operation in Tanzania to a consortium
to other investors. The operator also sold its led by Madagascar-based group Axian. Tigo
operations in Egypt to Vodacom Group. previously sold its mobile business in the DRC,
Senegal, Rwanda and Chad. Its joint venture
in Ghana with Airtel was taken over by the
government of Ghana in 2021.

Mobile industry trends 26 / 46

2.3
Satellite: momentum builds behind aerial
connectivity
Telecoms networks remain the primary form of Through standardisation, 3GPP has laid the
connectivity, supported by the wide area coverage foundation for satellite-based connectivity to
of wireless networks and the mass production and extend the reach of 5G to regions lacking terrestrial
adoption of mobile devices. However, in recent infrastructure. Four broad use cases have been
years, technological advances in satellite and identified:
other non-terrestrial networks (NTNs) have helped
• service continuity – coverage where it is not
to overcome certain limitations associated with
feasible using terrestrial networks such as
aerial connectivity. This has resulted in significant
maritime or remote areas
performance improvements, lower deployment
costs, and more commercially viable business • service ubiquity – mission-critical
models for satellite and NTN-based connectivity communications such as for disaster relief during
solutions. terrestrial network outages
Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite and high-altitude • service scalability – offloading traffic from
platform system (HAPS) providers have attracted terrestrial networks to NTNs for better system
a lot of attention following significant investments efficiency
and technical breakthroughs that improve the
business case for delivering connectivity at scale. • backhaul services – transport for sites with weak
A key selling point for aerial connectivity solutions or no backhaul capacity.
is the potential to provide ubiquitous coverage. Aerial connectivity will play an important role in
Telecoms networks now cover more than 95% of realising universal connectivity in Sub-Saharan
the world's population but less than 45% of the Africa. The region is home to some of the most
world's landmass. Satellites and NTNs are well- challenging terrain for terrestrial networks,
suited to deliver connectivity in maritime, remote including rain forests, deserts and mountain
and polar areas, where deploying conventional ranges. Even in rural and sparsely populated areas,
terrestrial networks could be costly and the cost and complexity of deploying conventional
challenging. mobile or fixed-line networks support the case for
alternative connectivity solutions.

Although satellite solutions have been offered in

the region for several decades, LEO and HAPS
have spurred interest in NTN solutions. SpaceX’s
Starlink has been expanding rapidly across the
region and is present in at least 14 markets as of
September 2024. These include Benin, Botswana,
Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda and
Zambia.
Aerial connectivity
will play an important
role in realising
universal connectivity
in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Mobile industry trends 27 / 46

A new era of partnerships
LEO and HAPS have ushered in a new era of • MTN subsidiary Bayobab has signed a multi-year
collaboration between telecoms and satellite deal to use Eutelsat’s LEO satellites, to expand
operators for solutions spanning use cases such as cellular backhaul and coverage in rural areas
remote area connectivity, disaster response and and meet rising demand from enterprise clients
maritime services. Examples include the following: across Africa. The deployment will be completed
across Africa by the end of 2024, but service is
• Airtel Nigeria has set up a satellite dish in Lagos
already online in four countries on the continent.
for Eutelsat OneWeb’s LEO satellite broadband
service. It will be used to bring high-speed For telecoms operators, satellites and NTN
internet to remote areas. The deployment is connectivity offer access to new customers in
part of a broader deal between Airtel Africa and underserved areas and the capability to provide
OneWeb, signed in November 2022. Eutelsat connectivity in remote areas. For satellite
OneWeb began deploying services in each of providers, operators’ existing relationships with
Airtel Africa’s 14 markets following tests in South end users and (where relevant) spectrum holdings
Africa in September 2023. are crucial for satellite solutions to scale. However,
the availability of compatible devices will affect the
• MTN is collaborating with Omnispace to explore
take-up of satellite-enabled services.
using the S-band for satellite services in MTN’s
portfolio of wireless services. Omnispace will GSMA Intelligence estimates a total incremental
develop a next-generation, standards-based revenue opportunity from satellite-to-phone
mobile and IoT network designed to serve MTN services of more than $30 billion for telecoms
markets. operators by 2035. 2

• MTN Group is partnering with satellite

communication companies, including OneWeb,
Starlink, Lynk Global and AST SpaceMobile,
to trial various solutions. These include direct-
to-device services and enterprise solutions, to
increase connectivity in rural areas.

2. Satellite 2.0: going direct to device, GSMA Intelligence, 2022

Mobile industry trends 28 / 46

2.4
Generative AI: exploring use cases and
growing partnerships
AI has grown in prominence across industries in generative AI (genAI) to enhance operations and
Sub-Saharan Africa, as in other regions. The UN services. According to a GSMA Intelligence survey,
Economic Commission for Africa estimates AI more operators are testing genAI than any other
could contribute up to $1.5 trillion to the African technology, signalling that 2024 will be pivotal for
economy by 2030. In this evolving landscape, proving its value. 3
operators in the region are gradually deploying

3. Network Transformation 2023, GSMA Intelligence, 2023

Mobile industry trends 29 / 46

Enhancing customer engagement and network optimisation
GenAI’s most visible application in the telecoms identifying patterns and potential issues before
sector is in customer service, where AI-driven they become significant problems. This broader
chatbots and virtual assistants have become digital transformation helps operators meet
integral. These handle a range of customer increasing demand for mobile services and
inquiries, offering instant and accurate responses, better connectivity. For instance, Vodacom, in
thus reducing waiting times and significantly collaboration with Nvidia, is developing an AI-
improving customer satisfaction. For example, powered virtual network management platform.
in December 2023, MTN launched Zigi, an AI- This creates a digital twin of Cape Town,
powered chatbot, across countries including encompassing all of Vodacom’s infrastructure,
Nigeria and South Africa. In 2024, the operator helping inform decisions on enhancing network
upgraded Zigi to manage more complex customer- performance in the physical world.
service tasks, and integrated it with billing systems
Policymakers play a crucial role in supporting
for real-time account updates.
AI adoption. The Nigerian Communications
GenAI is proving indispensable for network Commission recently recommended embracing
optimisation and predictive maintenance. AI/ML to optimise network management, predict
Operators are increasingly using AI to analyse maintenance needs and enhance customer service
large volumes of network data in real-time, through automation.4

Collaboration driving adoption

Regional operators are forming strategic Operators are likely to expand their portfolios of
partnerships with global tech firms to access AI-driven services to include immersive customer
advanced AI technologies and infrastructure. Such experiences and advanced virtual assistants.
collaborations bolster operators’ AI capabilities However, challenges such as a shortage of skilled
while paving the way for new business models and AI professionals remain. To support AI adoption
revenue streams. Recent examples include the and skills for the telecoms sector, the GSMA and
following: IBM together have launched a Generative AI
Training Program and Industry Challenge.
• MTN migrates to Microsoft platform – The
operator is migrating its BSS and OSS Addressing ethical concerns around AI is also
applications to Microsoft's Azure cloud crucial. The mobile industry is committed to the
computing platform as part of Project Nephos. ethical use of AI in its operations and interactions
The project aims to leverage machine learning to protect customers and employees, remove any
and AI to deliver operational efficiency across its entrenched inequality and ensure AI operates
footprint, starting with Nigeria and South Africa. reliably and fairly for all stakeholders. The GSMA’s
AI Ethics Playbook serves as a practical tool for
• Safaricom adopts Nokia software – The operator
organisations considering how to ethically design,
has deployed Nokia's AVA Energy Efficiency
develop and deploy AI systems.
software to lower its power consumption and
reduce costs. The deployment is expected
to reduce network energy costs by 8–10%.
The software uses AI and machine learning
algorithms to automate the shutting down of
idle equipment during low-usage periods, while
maintaining service to customers.

4. "NCC Urges Telcos to Reduce Operating Cost", Nigeria Communications Week, October 2024

Mobile industry trends 30 / 46

2.5
GSMA Open Gateway: operators aim to
unlock new monetisation opportunities
While it has long been possible to expose network interoperable and federated framework. The APIs
APIs, operators have struggled to adopt a are defined, developed and published in CAMARA,
standardised approach that unlocks innovation at the open-source project for developers to access
a global scale. This is the driving force behind the enhanced network capabilities, driven by the Linux
GSMA Open Gateway, which helps developers and Foundation in collaboration with the GSMA.
cloud providers enhance and deploy services more
The GSMA Open Gateway comprises a library
quickly via single points of access to operator
of 17 APIs. These are split into different families
networks.
based on use case addressed. The APIs can
With the GSMA Open Gateway, common, facilitate numerous use cases, including tackling
northbound service APIs expose mobile digital fraud, simplifying user authentication and
operators’ network capabilities within a consistent, addressing quality-of-service issues.

Operators unite to drive API progress

By the end of June 2024, 53 operator groups 10% of mobile connections. Africa, by contrast,
had signed up to the GSMA Open Gateway still sits considerably below its mobile market
initiative, representing 240 mobile networks share despite it being a vibrant digital services
and accounting for 67% of mobile connections marketplace, particularly in payments.
globally. The geographic breakdown of operator
Many of the early API launches around the world
commitments indicates whether regions are at par,
have focused on fraud prevention and security,
above or below their established market share.
using Number Verification and SIM Swap. These
Europe, for example, is the leading region, with
represent easy wins, given the ever-present risks
operators representing a quarter of GSMA Open
from fraudsters and breaches for operators and
Gateway commitments despite accounting for only
their customers.

Mobile industry trends 31 / 46

 South African operators launch GSMA Open Gateway APIs
South Africa saw a 24% increase in reported • SIM Swap – This obtains information on
incidents of digital banking fraud in 2022, any recent SIM pairing change related to
according to a report published by the South the user’s account. Use cases include fraud
African Banking Risk Information Centre. This prevention in banking and fraud prevention
surge saw cyber criminals stealing more than for password resets.
ZAR740 million from unsuspecting victims.
These API launches make South Africa
To help tackle this problem, South African the first country in Sub-Saharan Africa to
operators Cell C, MTN and Telkom launched implement GSMA Open Gateway APIs.
two Open Gateway APIs with applications in Further launches are likely to occur across the
fraud detection and digital security: region over the next 12 months. Momentum is
building steadily in countries such as Ethiopia,
• Number Verify – This verifies the phone
with Ethio Telecom joining the GSMA Open
number associated with the SIM in the
Gateway initiative in early 2024.
device connected to the mobile network.
Initial use cases include app login, app
onboarding and app password resets.

Operators consider routes to market

According to the GSMA Intelligence Network allow both developers and non-developers to build
Transformation Survey 2023, operators expect solutions on the platform, appealing in particular to
their internal teams (e.g. network engineers and SMEs, which may lack the software development
internal developers) to be the main consumers of skills of larger businesses.
network APIs. Such teams can use network APIs
In addition to strategies focused on direct
to build new services for end users while also
engagement with developers, many operators will
delivering internal efficiencies by using network
likely collaborate with channel partners (companies
APIs for purposes such as network monitoring and
that connect multiple operators to multiple
management.
developers). Hyperscalers, communications
Most operators also see an opportunity to expose platform-as-a-service (CPaaS) suppliers and
network APIs to work with external developers. network infrastructure vendors are all vying to play
Some operators have focused their initial efforts on this role in the GSMA Open Gateway ecosystem.
building direct relationships with developers. For As the number of partnerships between operators
example, MTN describes its Chenosis proposition and channel partners grows, it will be for these
as Africa’s first cross-industry developer collaborations to yield concrete examples of how
accelerator platform. It offers developers access federation and agreement on common APIs can
to a library of open APIs, and includes tools such create monetisation opportunities to sustain the
as low-code and no-code platforms. The idea is to momentum behind network APIs.

Mobile industry trends 32 / 46

03
Mobile industry
impact
3.1
Expanding rural connectivity
As of 2023, around 13% of the population in internet providers. Expanding mobile broadband
Sub-Saharan Africa was not covered by a mobile infrastructure in rural areas remains commercially
broadband network. The areas lacking coverage difficult. To address this, operators have been
are often rural and remote. These are sometimes exploring innovative business models, partnerships
sparsely populated with challenging terrain, and solutions to reduce the coverage gap.
making for high investment costs for mobile

Broadening partnership models

Operators are increasingly turning to new Nigeria in April 2024. The partnership establishes
infrastructure models, such as network-as-a- AMN as the first operator in Africa to leverage
service (NaaS), to address the rural coverage gap. Starlink for mobile backhaul. LEO constellations
In a NaaS model, the mobile operator outsources generally provide higher capacity than alternative
the entire management of its network, including satellite constellations, making this a more robust
installation, equipment lease, energy, maintenance and scalable backhaul solution.
and operations, to a NaaS integrator such as Africa
NTN solutions continue to gain momentum
Mobile Networks (AMN), iSAT or NuRAN.
in Sub-Saharan Africa. Rwanda’s government
The model has gained traction in rural areas of recently teamed up with SoftBank to deliver what
Sub-Saharan Africa, allowing operators to extend is claimed to be the first publicly announced 5G
network coverage with a lower level of risk. A connection from a HAPS UAV in the stratosphere.
recent example is the partnership between AMN Meanwhile, MTN has announced it is planning trials
and Starlink. As part of the agreement, the LEO with Lynk Global, AST SpaceMobile, Starlink and
satellite operator will provide backhaul to AMN’s Eutelsat OneWeb across various African countries,
base stations in remote and rural communities including Ghana, South Africa, Nigeria, South
globally. The initial deployment took place in Sudan and Rwanda.

Growing initiatives and investments

Governments in the region are taking steps in the Free State and Northern Cape provinces
to improve network coverage in rural areas. for 2024/2025. The investment will focus on
For instance, the Nigerian Communications improving network capacity, resilience and
Commission aims to expand telecoms access to coverage, particularly in rural areas. Of the total
80% of rural areas by 2027, up from 40% currently. investment, ZAR250 million will go towards RAN
The commission is also considering satellite projects, while ZAR150 million will be dedicated to
solutions, either through NigComSat or private transmission financing, including the deployment
operators, to achieve nationwide coverage. In of microwave and fibre-optic technology.
Congo, the government plans to allocate $9 million
The mobile industry has been proactive in
from the Universal Electronic Communications
addressing the rural coverage gap. However,
Access and Service Fund to construct 186
closing the digital divide in rural areas is a complex
telecoms sites in rural areas.
undertaking requiring continued collaboration
Alongside government efforts, mobile operators between mobile operators, governments and other
and infrastructure companies are making stakeholders.
renewed commitments to enhance connectivity
in Sub-Saharan Africa. Vodacom, for example,
has announced plans to invest ZAR400 million

Mobile industry impact 34 / 46

3.2
The mobile industry’s impact on the SDGs
The mobile industry continues to achieve its impact SDG 4: Quality Education are the highest scoring
on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), SDGs in Sub-Saharan Africa. The growing use of
driven by the increased reach of mobile networks smartphones and mobile internet adoption, as well
and growing take-up of mobile internet services. as improving affordability of mobile services are
SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure, contributing to mobile’s impact on the SDGs.
SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities, and

Figure 13
Mobile's impact on the SDGs in Sub-Saharan Africa

Most improved SDGs

Source: GSMA Intelligence

Mobile industry impact 35 / 46

Connectivity boosts digitisation and enhances urban services
Mobile technology contributes significantly to offer advanced networking solutions to mining
innovation and industrial development, serving customers, allowing them to experiment with and
as both critical infrastructure and a catalyst implement use cases such as augmented reality,
for growth. Connectivity, powered by mobile autonomous vehicles and fixed wireless access.
networks, enables industrial processes and
• Safaricom’s smart water system – In June 2023,
manufacturing to use technologies such as AI and
Safaricom partnered with the Kenya Water
IoT, and opens up new opportunities for innovation.
Institute to deploy a smart water system at the
Mobile operators are therefore playing a crucial
institute's Nairobi and Kitui campuses. Using
role in accelerating industrial innovation.
IoT-enabled water meters, the system collects
Operators are also contributing significantly to live data for effective monitoring of consumption
SDG 11 by enabling smart city solutions. The role of and detection of loss and leakage, ensuring
operators has evolved from providing connectivity accurate billing, enhanced revenue collection and
to becoming integral co-creators of smart cities. improved operational efficiency.
They are now using emerging technologies such
• Orange’s IoT energy platform – Orange has
as IoT, AI and cloud computing to develop and
launched its IoT platform, Orange Smart
implement smart solutions. These include digital
Energies, for energy suppliers in Africa and the
meters and those designed to monitor and manage
Middle East. The platform provides the option
resources such as water and energy.
to pay with mobile money, enables tracking of
Recent operator examples across the areas of payments and supports both pay-as-you-go
industry innovation and smart cities include the solar equipment and prepaid smart meters. In
following: partnership with energy producers, it provides
a digital service and a distribution network
• Comsol’s 5G in mining – In early 2023, Comsol
that make it easier for everyone to access
signed a reseller agreement with Ericsson to
energy in rural areas. Orange Smart Energies
provide a private 5G platform, expanding the
serves 300,000 households in 12 markets,
operator’s business in South Africa’s mining
predominantly in Sub-Saharan Africa.
industry. The platform will enable Comsol to

Mobile supports digital education initiatives

Mobile technology contributes to SDG 4, which establish smart classrooms in around 100 schools
seeks to ensure inclusive and equitable quality nationwide. The operator will also provide free
education, and promote lifelong learning server access to the digitised curriculum of the
opportunities for all. Digital transformation is Tanzania Institute of Adult Education.
making learning resources more accessible,
• Huawei’s ICT education initiatives – In
enhancing educational outcomes and supporting
collaboration with Kenya’s Information and
continuous learning. By bridging gaps in education
Communication Technology Authority, Huawei
access and improving the quality of education,
is working on Kenya’s 2024 Seeds for Future
mobile technology is fostering a more inclusive
programme. This aims to develop local ICT talent,
society. Recent examples of how the mobile
improve knowledge sharing and raise awareness
ecosystem is supporting digital education include
of and enthusiasm for the technology sector.
the following:
Over the past nine years, more than 240 Kenyan
• Airtel’s 5G connects schools for digital students have received virtual training through
learning – In 2023, Airtel Africa launched an the programme. For 2024, the programme
initiative to connect 3,000 secondary schools returns to its physical format, educating
in Tanzania with high-speed 5G data networks. participants in 5G, cloud computing and AI.
This aims to boost digital learning and improve
information access. Additionally, Airtel plans to

Mobile industry impact 36 / 46

04
Mobile industry
enablers
According to the World Bank5 and IMF,6 the continue beyond 2024, with growth projections
financial outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa is reaching 4% in 2025. Public debt ratios have
gradually improving after a turbulent period since broadly stabilised, and several countries have
2020. Growth is expected to rise from 3.4% in issued Eurobonds in 2024, ending a two-year
2023 to 3.8% in 2024. Economic recovery will likely hiatus from international markets.

4.1
Improving the affordability of mobile
services to close the connectivity gap
A funding squeeze persists as governments across The sector is also taxed disproportionately higher
the region struggle with finance shortages, high than others, despite its positive externalities across
borrowing costs and debt repayments. The region various sectors. These include increased value
continues to be more vulnerable to global external from agricultural resources, improved access to
shocks, the threat of rising political instability and global value chains, enhancements to education
climate events. This has led to macroeconomic and healthcare provision, reductions in transaction
challenges such as currency devaluation, costs for economic and public service activities,
escalating energy costs and soaring inflation rates, improved efficiency of government services,
especially in large economies such as Nigeria and transparency and good governance.
Ethiopia.
Taxation and sector-specific taxes in particular
Faced with these challenges, governments in exacerbate affordability concerns, excluding many
Africa have raised funds through increased citizens from the digital age. Sector-specific taxes
taxation to meet their development objectives. increase the cost of broadband access and usage,
In some cases, the mobile sector's contribution making digital devices and services less accessible,
to government tax revenues surpasses its size in lowering economic growth. The mobile sector
terms of GDP, due to high levels of sector-specific is committed to paying taxes in the countries
taxation. An ITU survey of ICT national regulatory where it operates to support the government's
authorities around the world found that the development objectives. However, the industry
number of countries that apply taxes specific to calls for more structured taxation regimes that
the ICT sector is much higher in Africa than in the do not impact the affordability of services to
rest of the world. consumers and investment in the industry.

The industry calls

for more structured
taxation regimes
that do not impact
the affordability of
services to consumers
and investment in the
industry

5. Global Economic Prospects: Sub-Saharan Africa, World Bank, 2024

6. Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, IMF, 2024

Mobile industry enablers 38 / 46

Policy recommendations for tax regimes that enable investment
While government revenue from taxation • Remove duties on the import of network
is crucial for any administration, this should equipment to reduce the cost of operators’
be balanced with the need to ensure investment in network expansion and
industry growth. Closing the high usage innovation.
gap in the region should be prioritised to
• Streamline and stabilise taxes within
ensure all citizens have an equal opportunity
the mobile sector to reduce operators’
to participate in the digital economy. As
compliance expenses and offer
such, urgent taxation reform is needed to
predictability, enabling more effective
address affordability of mobile services and
investment planning.
smartphones, which represents a key barrier
to mobile broadband adoption. • Consider tax incentives in exchange for
operators’ commitments to making less
1. Remove tax-related barriers to the
financially appealing investments, such
affordability of mobile services
as providing connectivity in underserved,
• Eliminate or decrease industry-specific remote and rural regions.
excise taxes applied to mobile services.

• Reduce or eliminate import duties on mobile 3. Strengthen access to and use of mobile
handsets and refrain from imposing VAT money and digital government services
rates higher than the standard rate. This involves refraining from taxing mobile
• Remove fixed-rate taxes imposed on money services, improving their accessibility.
consumers, such as activation and Greater access to mobile money services can
numbering taxes, which disproportionately facilitate their integration into government
affect individuals with lower incomes and payment systems, potentially leading to
contribute to making mobile services less increased transparency, improved service
affordable. delivery and more effective revenue
collection.

2. Establish a tax environment conducive

to enhancing operators’ ability to invest in
mobile networks

• Remove sector-specific taxes/fees on mobile

operators, particularly those imposed
on operators’ revenues irrespective of
profitability, to ensure fair treatment of the
sector and encourage investment in mobile
infrastructure.

Mobile industry enablers 39 / 46

4.2
Using universal service funds effectively
Governments in Africa and worldwide have Political will among governments and policymakers
introduced policies to incentivise internet is an important first step in the journey to USF
infrastructure rollout in underserved locations and reform.7 This is necessary for improvements to
to stimulate consumer demand for services. In the USF legal framework, and adherence to the
Africa, at least 51 of the 54 countries in the region core principles of an effective and successful USF
have introduced or are introducing the universal – namely, accountability, clarity, service neutrality,
service fund (USF) mechanism to deploy mobile transparency, sustainability and visibility.
broadband infrastructure in commercially unviable
Meanwhile, there is growing debate around a
areas. The intention is to bridge the connectivity
possible role for the USF in supporting initiatives to
gap. In all cases, USFs are partly or entirely
close the usage gap. For example, in Uganda, the
financed through contributions from telecoms
USF is used to deploy digital literacy programmes
service providers. With a coverage gap of nearly
in schools in rural and remote areas. In Ethiopia,
200 million people and usage gap of just over
the USF framework includes demand stimulation
800 million, the scale of the challenge to realise
initiatives such as digital literacy, in phase 2 of the
universal connectivity in Africa underlines the need
fund. That said, additional research is needed to
for effective use of USFs.
understand the nature of the connectivity gap
Insights from a GSMA study show that many USFs in various countries and ascertain the initiatives
in Africa are underperforming and have become required to address it. These initiatives must
ineffective tools to close the connectivity gap. be identified in close consultation with fund
In view of the urgency to close the coverage contributors, which can provide additional insights
and usage gaps, it has become imperative to based on their experience in the market. Adequate
reform structural and operational aspects of USFs mechanisms for monitoring and evaluation
across Africa to improve their effectiveness, or to must also be implemented to ensure visibility,
discontinue the USF approach. transparency and accountability in the use of
USFs.

7. Political will defined as the commitment of actors to undertake actions to achieve a set of objectives and to sustain the costs of those actions over time.

Mobile industry enablers 40 / 46

Policy recommendations for the effective use of USFs
USF reform must be prioritised to ensure • Use data for decision-making – Detailed
funds perform optimally and meet the data on service gaps and local economic
objectives set, before considering expanding and social factors affecting people’s ability
the fund's scope. This will ensure that the to connect to the internet is critical to
current challenge of underperformance is not maximise the impact of the funds.
carried forward to new projects. To increase
• Maintain regular performance monitoring
the effectiveness of funds in the region,
and evaluation – Regular reporting
policymakers are encouraged to take the
is paramount to provide visibility and
following steps:
accountability in the USF process. This
• Set clear and measurable targets for the creates more confidence in the fund's
USF – Clearly define the parameters for relevance among stakeholders.
USF projects and outline the key success
• Establish a project costing system that
measures following implementation.
accounts for overheads – Put in place an
• Adopt mechanisms to incentivise fund appropriate mechanism to cost projects
disbursement – Simplify the disbursement from end to end, considering extraneous
process, collaborate with stakeholders on circumstances that could impact the project
project selection, and use incentives to (e.g. inflationary pressures on site building
increase the disbursement rate. materials, local currency devaluation and
security costs).
• Implement evidence-based contribution
rates – Take an evidence-based approach, • Build capacity and develop skills within the
in consultation with service providers and USF – The effectiveness of a USF can only
other stakeholders, to decide a suitable be as strong as the people managing it. As
contribution rate. such, USF authorities must have personnel
with the required skills and experience to
• Ensure stakeholder consultation
design, implement and monitor projects
throughout the project lifecycle –
properly.
Service providers are at the forefront of
implementing USF projects. Visibility of • Integrate fund contributors into a
the way the fund is managed is key to the management board – USFs should leverage
successful implementation of USF projects. the market insights and experience of fund
contributors to make informed decisions
that can enhance the impact of projects.

Mobile industry enablers 41 / 46

4.3
Adopting spectrum policy for inclusive
digital development
Spectrum availability and licensing continue to enhance the quality and range of services offered.
be important means of improving connectivity. Spectrum policy also has an important role to play
Governments and regulators in Sub-Saharan in the race to net zero. Successful policies can
Africa should adopt forward-looking spectrum help reduce carbon emissions from the mobile
management policies, including: ecosystem while advancing mobile connectivity
and increasing the enabling effect on emission-
• creating a spectrum roadmap
saving use cases for other sectors.
• ensuring access to mid-band spectrum – in
At its core, a spectrum licensing framework should:
particular, 3.5 GHz – given its importance to the
future of 5G • ensure access to sufficient spectrum for
operators
• accelerating access to sub-1 GHz spectrum to
provide widespread rural mobile broadband • provide predictability to support the new
services. network investment needed

Effective spectrum licensing, from roadmap to • provide clear procedures for spectrum renewals,
assignment, is critical to encourage the investment well in advance of the end of the licence tenure
required to expand mobile access, meet the
• avoid costly restrictions on the use of spectrum
increase in demand for data services, and
beyond those needed to manage interference.

Spectrum roadmaps
A spectrum roadmap is essential to ensure • identifying emerging opportunities and
there is enough spectrum to meet demand challenges to a radio spectrum framework at
for mobile services in both the short and long least three to five years in advance
terms. Roadmaps help governments forecast
• determining future technology trends and
future trends and manage their work. For mobile
drivers, and assessing their impact on spectrum
operators, roadmaps encourage investment
policy and planning
by offering increased certainty, based on the
government’s future allocation, renewal plans and • planning spectrum management programmes to
radio spectrum management. Key themes for a address challenges and maximise opportunities
spectrum roadmap should include:
• creating a plan to regularly review and
update the roadmap (an annual review is
recommended).

Technology neutrality
Technology-neutral spectrum licensing helps without leaving any users behind. Implementing
enable legacy network shutdowns and is technology-neutral spectrum licensing maximises
recognised as best practice when assigning spectral efficiency and allows users to benefit
spectrum to mobile operators. It enables mobile from faster rollouts of 4G and 5G. It can lead to
operators to refarm spectrum used for 2G or 3G the delivery of better mobile broadband coverage
to 4G and 5G at a pace driven by market demand. and higher data speeds by allowing operators to
Experience shows it is possible to refarm bands upgrade technologies promptly.

Mobile industry enablers 42 / 46

Spectrum pricing
High spectrum prices hinder the rollout of adoption. The main goal of governments around
mobile services. By contrast, sufficient spectrum the world should be to provide long-term benefit
bandwidth assigned at reasonable prices is to their economy and ensure consumers and
strongly linked to greater population coverage, industry can get the most out of mobile spectrum
better download speeds and increased service resources and boost national productivity.

Spectrum policies with positive impact replacing SWNs

Single wholesale networks (SWNs) have almost • Affordable access to low-band spectrum
died out. Their proponents believed they would promotes mobile coverage and increases
better address certain concerns (e.g. coverage or capacity.
spectrum efficiency) than the traditional model
• Establishing a robust spectrum roadmap allows
of network competition in some markets. SWNs
long-term planning and minimises opex.
have not proved successful in solving any of these
problems to date, with plans largely abandoned for • Technology neutrality and spectrum refarming
competition-based approaches. deliver efficiency.
The best way forward is for governments, • Voluntary infrastructure sharing will support
regulators and mobile operators to collaborate wider coverage.
on long-term solutions based on the following
principles: • Voluntary spectrum leasing or trading helps
maximise efficiency.

Low-band spectrum
Low-band spectrum is a driver of digital equality, the region is expected to continue to increase
helping reduce the connectivity gap between well into the 2030s, its socioeconomic impact as
urban and rural areas and delivering affordable a percentage of GDP will already be similar to the
connectivity. Without sufficient low-band impact in Europe and North America by 2030. This
spectrum, countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will will pave the way for Sub-Saharan Africa to realise
struggle to address the digital divide. Those living even greater benefits from low-band 5G going into
in rural areas may be excluded from the latest the next decade.
digital technologies. There are numerous benefits
Low-band 5G applications will mostly benefit the
for countries that prioritise access to more low-
mining and retail industries, reflecting the level
band spectrum for mobile. For example, adding
of economic activity driven by these sectors. The
the 600 MHz range to existing low bands can raise
wide area coverage enabled by low bands will
download speeds by 30–50% in rural areas. 8
also be particularly important in driving the digital
Through early adopters in the region, low-band 5G transformation of the agricultural sector, where
is expected to bring benefits of almost $3 billion IoT applications can support smart farming and
to the economy of Sub-Saharan Africa, or around agriculture.
0.08% of GDP, in 2030. While 5G penetration in

8. Vision 2030: Low-Band Spectrum for 5G, GSMA, 2022

Mobile industry enablers 43 / 46

Mid-band spectrum
Mid-band spectrum, particularly 3.5 GHz, is As policymakers look to the future, the 6 GHz band
important to the future of 5G because it offers offers significant potential. The mobile industry
city-wide coverage and capacity. In the short believes the following:
term, operators should have access to 100 MHz of
• 6 GHz capacity is required to meet increasing
contiguous spectrum in this band. Meeting long-
customer demand at speeds outlined in the ITU’s
term mid-band spectrum demand requires forward
vision for 5G. It will also be required for the future
planning from policymakers. GSMA analysis shows
evolution of mobile.
that a total of 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum, on
average, will be required to support the growth of • Mobile networks are already densified, but 6 GHz
5G during 2025–2030. 5G growth in Sub-Saharan can enable growth of sustainable mobile capacity
Africa is expected to develop rapidly in the second on existing macro-cell sites.
half of the decade and continue into the 2030s.
The economic impact of mid-band 5G in the region • Timely availability of 6 GHz, at reasonable
will be around $13 billion or 0.4% of GDP in 2030. conditions and prices, will drive cost-efficient
network deployment, help reduce the broadband
usage gap and support digital inclusion.

• Mobile networks will need, on average, 2 GHz of

mid-band spectrum per country by 2030. This is
challenging to achieve without 6 GHz.

• The 6 GHz band at 6.425–7.125 GHz should be

made available for licensed, macro-cell mobile.

Mobile industry enablers 44 / 46

 Figure 14
Mid-band spectrum available in Sub-Saharan Africa versus the requirement
for 2025–2030

0.95 GHz 2 GHz

Average mid-band capacity Average mid-band spectrum
in Sub-Saharan Africa today needed globally for 2025–2030

Source: GSMA and ITU

WRC-23: mobile spectrum for Africa’s future

WRC-23 paved the way for better quality services, WRC-23 also set the path for greater digital
delivered to more people by the most affordable equality by defining mobile use of more low-band
networks. Operators need the new spectrum spectrum in the 470–694 MHz band in EMEA. Low
capacity agreed at WRC-23 to provide consistent bands play a crucial role in expanding capacity for
speeds to more people as 5G services take off. internet connectivity, particularly benefiting rural
The right amount of capacity helps minimise the communities with signals reaching over wide areas,
number of base stations needed, which keeps as well as helping achieve good indoor coverage in
costs down and helps with carbon emissions. urban areas.

In the mid-bands, WRC-23 took steps to meet WRC-23 provided the next steps for enabling low-
mobile data growth by identifying additional and mid-band spectrum to be used for 4G and 5G
spectrum for mobile. Final harmonisation of the connectivity. It is now important for this spectrum
3.5 GHz band (3.3–3.8 GHz) was achieved across to be brought into the long-term spectrum
Europe, the Middle East and Africa, as well as roadmaps of administrations.
throughout the Americas.

WRC-23 also identified 6 GHz for mobile use by

countries in every ITU Region – EMEA, CIS, the
Americas and Asia Pacific. Global, harmonised
conditions for its use have been agreed in the
ITU’s Radio Regulations. This brings together a
Operators need
population of billions of people into a harmonised the new spectrum
6 GHz mobile footprint. It also serves as a critical capacity agreed at
developmental trigger for manufacturers in the
6 GHz equipment ecosystem.
WRC-23 to provide
consistent speeds to
more people as 5G
services take off

Mobile industry enablers 45 / 46

The Mobile
Economy
Sub-Saharan Africa
2024
GSMA Head Office
1 Angel Lane
London
EC4R 3AB
United Kingdom
[email protected]