World Bank

The baseline forecast envisions a 5.2 percent contraction in global GDP in 2020, using
market exchange rate weights—the deepest global recession in decades, despite the
extraordinary efforts of governments to counter the downturn with fiscal and monetary
policy support. The pandemic is expected to plunge most countries into recession in 2020,
with per capita income contracting in the largest fraction of countries globally since
1870. Advanced economies are projected to shrink 7 percent. This would represent the
weakest showing by this group of economies in at least sixty years.

The proportion of economies with an annual contraction in per capita GDP. Shaded areas refer to global
recessions. Data for 2020-21 are forecasts.

Every region is subject to substantial growth downgrades. The downturns are expected to
reverse years of progress toward development goals and tip tens of millions of people back
into extreme poverty.
Emerging market and developing economies will be buffeted by economic headwinds from
multiple quarters: pressure on weak health care systems, loss of trade and tourism,
dwindling remittances, subdued capital flows, and tight financial conditions amid mounting
debt. The pandemic and efforts to contain it have triggered an unprecedented collapse in oil
demand and a crash in oil prices.
BBC News
Global shares in flux
Big shifts in stock markets, where shares in companies are bought and sold, can affect the
value of pensions or individual savings accounts (Isas).
The FTSE, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nikkei all saw huge falls as the number of
Covid-19 cases grew in the first months of the crisis.

Unemployment rates have increased across major economies.

The IMF estimates that the global economy shrunk by 4.4% in 2020. The organisation
described the decline as the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The only major economy to grow in 2020 was China. It registered a growth of 2.3%.The IMF
is however predicting a growth of up to 5.2% by 2025.
That will be driven primarily by countries such as India and China, forecast to grow by 8.8%
and 8.2% respectively.

UNWTO
TOURISM AND COVID-19 – UNPRECEDENTED
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
 Tourism is one of the sectors most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, impacting
economies, livelihoods, public services and opportunities on all continents. All parts
of its vast value-chain have been affected.
 Export revenues from tourism could fall by $910 billion to $1.2 trillion in 2020. This
will have a wider impact and could reduce global GDP by 1.5% to 2.8%.
MASSIVE IMPACT ON LIVELIHOODS
 As many as 100 million direct tourism jobs are at risk, in addition to sectors
associated with tourism such as labour-intensive accommodation and food services
industries that provide employment for 144 million workers worldwide. Small
businesses (which shoulder 80% of global tourism) are particularly vulnerable.
 Women, who make up 54% of the tourism workforce, youth and workers in the
informal economy are among the most at-risk categories.

loss of

US$ 910 Billion to US$ 1.2 Trillion

in export from tourism - international visitors' spending

1.5% to 2.8 of global GDP

World Economic Forum

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed education forever. Globally, over 1.2 billion children are
out of the classroom.As a result, education has changed dramatically, with the distinctive
rise of e-learning, whereby teaching is undertaken remotely and on digital
platforms.Research suggests that online learning has been shown to increase retention of
information, and take less time, meaning the changes coronavirus have caused might be
here to stay.

While countries are at different points in their COVID-19 infection rates, worldwide there
are currently more than 1.2 billion children in 186 countries affected by school closures due
to the pandemic. In Denmark, children up to the age of 11 are returning to nurseries and
schools after initially closing on 12 March, but in South Korea students are responding to roll
calls from their teachers online.

Even before COVID-19, there was already high growth and adoption in education
technology, with global edtech investments reaching US$18.66 billion in 2019 and the
overall market for online education projected to reach $350 Billion by 2025. Whether it
is language apps, virtual tutoring, video conferencing tools, or online learning software,
there has been a significant surge in usage since COVID-19.In response to significant
demand, many online learning platforms are offering free access to their services, including
platforms like BYJU’S, a Bangalore-based educational technology and online tutoring firm
founded in 2011, which is now the world’s most highly valued edtech company. Since
announcing free live classes on its Think and Learn app, BYJU’s has seen a 200% increase in
the number of new students using its product, according to Mrinal Mohit, the company's
Chief Operating Officer.

Agriculture
A global crash in demand from hotels and restaurants has seen prices of agricultural
commodities drop by 20%.
Advice on self-isolation upon contact with suspected carriers of the virus is likely to impact
the number of available inspectors and delivery staff critical to ensuring verification and
transportation of products. This will have pronounced implications for perishable goods
such as meat and vegetables. ‘Panic buying’ is further complicating shortages beyond
supermarket shelves.
Petroleum & oil
During a meeting at the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna
on March 6th, a refusal by Russia to slash oil production triggered Saudi Arabia to retaliate
with extraordinary discounts to buyers and a threat to pump more crude [ 11]. Saudi,
regarded as the de facto leader of OPEC, increased its provision of oil by 25% compared to
February – taking production volume to an unprecedented level. This caused the steepest
one-day price crash seen in nearly 30 years. Although a deceleration in the number of
COVID-related deaths has caused some stabilisation of oil prices, there is still much
uncertainty.

Manufacturing industry
As the UK is adopting similar protective measures to the rest of the world, and due to the
global overlap of supply chains, we can expect these anxieties to transcend borders. The
Chemical Industry is predicted to reduce its global production by 1.2%, the worst growth for
the sector since the 2008 financial crash. Major chemical manufacturing companies such as
BASF who were in the process of upscaling production in China have had to delay their
activities, contributing to a slowdown in predicted growth.

Finance industry
COVID-19 has affected communities, businesses and organisations globally, inadvertently
affecting the financial markets and the global economy.
The decline in global stock markets has festered a volatile environment with critical liquidity
levels. To combat these effects, Central banks globally have intervened to ensure liquidity is
maintained and mitigate the economic shock, with several leaders embarking on a
‘Whatever it takes’ approach.

Healthcare
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented challenge for healthcare systems
worldwide. In particular, the risk to healthcare workers is one of the greatest vulnerabilities
of healthcare systems worldwide.
High healthcare costs, shortages of protective equipment including N95 face masks, and low
numbers of ICU beds and ventilators have ultimately exposed weaknesses in the delivery of
patient care. In the US, there is concern regarding uninsured individuals, who may work in
jobs predisposing them to viral infection which may lead to significant financial
consequences in the event of illness.

Pharmaceutical industry
Profound changes to the dynamics of healthcare are likely to ensue, leading to massive
investment into disease prevention infrastructure, and the accelerated digital
transformation of healthcare delivery.
In the US, active pharmaceutical ingredients are imported largely from India (18%) and the
EU (26%), while China accounts for 13%. China is also the biggest exporter of medical
devices to the US, accounting for 39.3%. Production slow-downs and limitations in supply
would inadvertently lead to revenue loss. In the UK, AstraZeneca have indicated that COVID-
19 is likely to affect its 2020 revenue growth.

Aviation
The travel industry is grappling with an unprecedented wave of cancellations and a
significant drop in demand amid strict governmental instructions to implement social
distancing and the restriction of unnecessary travel. In the US, all foreign nationals from
China, Iran and certain EU countries are barred from entering. This ban includes anyone
who visited these countries within the 14 days prior to their US trip. The UK Foreign Office
has also advised UK nationals against all but essential international travel. In Europe, the
president of the EU commission has proposed all non-essential travel from outside the EU
be suspended for 30 days. Travel suspensions have also been implemented across Asia and
Africa.

Real estate and housing sector

The real estate industry is facing great uncertainty due to COVID-19. At an individual level,
social distancing precautions have reduced house views, a key part of the selling process,
and both buyers and sellers are having to reconsider their plans. Brokers around the United
States are also asking potential buyers to preregister for viewings in order to gauge their
level of interest and likelihood of purchase. s