U.S. LNG and International Security Briefing Note
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The American Security ProjectU.S. LNG and International Security Briefing Note
Uploaded by
The American Security ProjectU.S.
LNG and International Security
Briefing Note
Overview
The United States is the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and its export capacity is
expected to grow rapidly over the current Trump administration and beyond.
U.S. LNG exports have improved global energy security and reduced energy dependence on risky oil and
gas suppliers, shielding friendly nations from supply chain interruptions in Russia and the Middle East.
The United States’ LNG dominance is a powerful geopolitical tool to bolster strategic alliances, increase
global engagement and influence, and restrict adversaries’ opportunities for coercion.
However, overreliance on LNG carries strategic risks and negative environmental impacts. LNG facilities
may be vulnerable to attack during a conflict, and U.S. exports depend on the accessibility of key
shipping lanes that may be obstructed by violence or extreme weather.
Growth in global demand for LNG is expected to decelerate dramatically in the coming years, and risks
of market oversupply are looming. With demand from critical buyers dropping as they transition to low-
carbon alternatives, the U.S. will not be able to sustain long-term energy dominance through LNG alone.
Securing Europe’s Energy Supply U.S. LNG Export Destinations, 2023
(Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2025)
Netherlands
U.S. LNG exports to Europe have skyrocketed, France
more than doubling from 2021 to 2022. The United Kingdom
United States is now the top supplier of LNG to Japan
the European Union (EU). South Korea
Before Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Spain
Russia provided over 40% of the EU's natural Germany
gas imports. U.S. LNG helped European allies Italy
China
diversify their energy supply, reducing the
India
revenue flowing into Putin’s war chest.
100 200 300 400 500 600
However, Europe remains largely dependent on Billion cubic feet
Russian LNG, importing "record levels" from
Moscow last year. Russia has been the EU’s EU LNG Import Origins
second-largest source of LNG since 2023. (Data: EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, 2024)
Share of Total EU Imports
The EU has imposed limited sanctions to curb
2023
2023
Russia’s LNG trade. U.S. LNG could help
Europe move further away from Russian gas,
stem revenue flows to Moscow, and boost
2024
2024
Washington's negotiating position in future
peace talks. 0 20 40 60 80 100
United States Russia Qatar Algeria Norway Nigeria Other
1
Strengthening Indo-Pacific Partnerships
As the second-largest destination for U.S. LNG exports and home to the world's top LNG importers, Asia
is a vital market for U.S. natural gas.
Strong Indo-Pacific partnerships are integral to U.S. efforts to maintain regional influence and stability.
U.S. LNG exports can strengthen critical relationships by bolstering the energy security of import-
dependent partners such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.
Taiwan imports nearly 98% of its energy, a key vulnerability in the event of a confrontation with China. In
2025, natural gas is expected to power half of Taiwan's electricity generation.
A maritime blockade could prevent Taiwan from accessing
critical seaborne energy imports, including U.S. LNG. LNG Taiwan LNG Import Origins, 2023
(Data: Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2024)
facilities may also offer tempting targets for Beijing to cripple
Taipei’s energy supply without assuming the high risk of an Qatar
27.9%
attack on nuclear energy facilities.
To deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan and reduce the Australia
risk of a U.S.-China conflict, the U.S. should discourage 40.2%
overreliance on LNG by working with Taipei to develop its
energy production capacity and expand its energy reserves. United
States
Rising demand for LNG in South and Southeast Asia may offer 9.8%
an opportunity for the U.S. to foster cooperation with other Papua New
security partners like the Philippines. Other
Russia Malaysia Guinea
9%
2.8% 3.2% 7.1%
U.S. LNG Share in China’s Energy Mix, 2022
(Data: IEA 2025, Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2023)
China’s Pursuit of Energy
Gas produced in China Direct LNG imports (U.S.)
Pipeline gas imports LNG imports (rest of world) China is the world's largest importer of LNG, and its
59.3% 15.7% 24.3% import volumes are expected to rise. However, in 2022,
LNG made up less than 8% of China's total energy mix.
In 2024, the U.S. supplied just 5% of China's total LNG
imports. This relatively low share limits the utility of U.S.
LNG as a geopolitical tool to gain leverage over China.
0.7% Beijing profits from the resale of cheap U.S. LNG to
7.8% markets where prices are high, fueling the expansion of
2.9% China’s global influence through its advanced energy
3%
3.4% industry and infrastructure investments abroad.
4.1%
New U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have provoked
retaliatory measures from China, including levies on U.S.
LNG. These levies may reduce Chinese demand for U.S.
China’s Total
17.9% 61% LNG and could make natural gas reserves in the South
Energy Mix China Sea more attractive.
Increased Chinese activity in these disputed waters
would likely drive up tensions with U.S. treaty allies such
as Japan and the Philippines, which contest China’s
territorial claims in the South China Sea, raising the risk
Natural gas Coal Oil Geothermal, solar, wind, etc. of conflict and escalation.
Biofuels and waste Hydro Nuclear
February 2025
2 by Katherine Yusko
