Yes Securities Sees 44% UPSIDE in Somany Ceramics LTD Benign Per
Yes Securities Sees 44% UPSIDE in Somany Ceramics LTD Benign Per
Company maintained their guidance of mid to high-single digit growth and expect 90
margins to improve with better utilizations. Brand spends will continue to be ~2.5% of
70
sales.
Our View 50
Feb-24 Jun-24 Oct-24 Feb-25
We have revised our FY25E’s volume growth estimate lower owing to lackluster 1M 3M 1Y
performance in 9MFY25 due to lower demand and higher competitive intensity from Absolute return -20.5% -24.7% -31.2%
Morbi. We expect volumes to grow by 7%CAGR over FY24-FY27E. However, with
expected reduction in price, we believe tile revenue to grow by 6% CAGR over FY24- Shareholding pattern (As of Dec’24 end)
FY27E. We have also revised our margin expectation lower by ~100bps for coming 2- Promoter 55.0%
years to 9.5% in FY26E & FY27E. Hence, our EPS has been revised downwards by 17% FII+DII 25.2%
for both FY26E and FY27E to Rs30.5 and Rs36.4 respectively. At CMP, the stock Others 19.8%
trades at P/E(x) of 14x on FY27E EPS. Given the lucrative multiples, we maintain our
∆ in stance
BUY rating on the stock, with a revised target price of Rs728 by valuing the company
(1-Yr) New Old
at P/E(x) if 20x on FY27E EPS. Rating BUY BUY
Target Price 728 873
Result Highlights
∆ in earnings estimates
Revenue for the quarter stood at Rs6.44Bn, a growth of 5%YoY. FY25E FY26E FY27E
EPS (New) 19.1 30.5 36.4
EBITDA margins came in at 8.3% Vs 9.6%/8.4% in Q3FY24/Q2FY25 respectively.
EPS (Old) 27.6 36.9 43.6
Absolute EBITDA degrew by 9%YoY to Rs535Mn. % change -30.8% -17.4% -16.6%
Net profit stood at Rs97Mn, a decline of 47% YoY (excluding exceptional
Financial Summary
gain/loss). The profit declined due to higher tax rate with came in at 39% Vs
(Rs mn) FY25E FY26E FY27E
31%/30% in Q3FY24/Q2FY25 respectively. Net Revenue 26,771 29,330 32,213
YoY Growth 3.3 9.6 9.8
Tile volumes grew by 4.5%YoY while ASP remained flattish YoY & consequently
EBITDA 2,276 2,786 3,060
tile revenue increased marginally by 3.5%YoY. 8.5 9.5 9.5
EBITDA (%)
PAT 785 1,250 1,492
YoY Growth (21.1) 59.4 19.3
ROE 10.4 14.9 15.4
Exhibit 1: Actual vs estimates
EPS 19.1 30.5 36.4
Estimate % Variation P/E 26.4 16.6 13.9
Rs mn Actual Remarks BV/Share 191.7 219.1 252.3
YES Sec Consensus YES Sec Consensus
P/BV 2.6 2.3 2.0
Sales 6,449 6,107 6,391 5.6 0.9
Revenue
EBITDA 535 513 554 4.2 (3.5) above UDIT GAJIWALA
EBITDA estimates, Lead Analyst
8.3 8.4 8.7 -11 bps -38 bps margin in-
Margin (%)
line. +91 22 6992 2934 / 35 / 36
Adjusted PAT 97 150 185 (35.5) (47.6)
Source: Company, YES Sec SHALIN DAMANI, Associate
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QUARTERLY TRENDS
Exhibit 4: Tiles volume grew by 4.5%YoY… Exhibit 5: Tile revenue increased by 3.5%YoY…
msm Rs Mn
Own JV Other Own JV Other
20 7,000
6,000
16
5,000
12 4,000
8 3,000
2,000
4
1,000
0 0
Q3FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q3FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25
Exhibit 6: Blended ASP stood at Rs320/sqm… Exhibit 7: Tiles contributed to 85% of revenue…
Rs/sqm Rs Mn
Own JV Other Blended Tile Bathware Others
8,000
370
350
6,000
330
310 4,000
290
2,000
270
250 0
Q3FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q3FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25
Exhibit 8: Blended margin declined to 8.3%… Exhibit 9: Net profit stood at Rs97Mn…
Rs Mn Rs Mn
EBITDA Margin% % PAT Margin% %
1,000 12% 400 5%
350
10%
800 4%
300
8%
600 250 3%
6% 200
400 150 2%
4%
100
200 1%
2%
50
0 0% 0 0%
Q3FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q3FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25
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Somany Ceramics Ltd
FINANCIALS
Exhibit 10: Income Statement
Y/e 31 Mar (Rs mn) FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Sales 24,785 25,914 26,771 29,330 32,213
COGS 10,694 11,979 12,260 13,324 14,845
GP 14,091 13,934 14,511 16,006 17,368
GP% 56.9 53.8 54.2 54.6 53.9
Employee Cost 3,012 3,244 3,568 3,996 4,476
Power & Fuel 6,523 5,219 5,375 5,537 5,703
Other Cost 2,669 2,939 3,292 3,687 4,129
EBITDA 1,887 2,533 2,276 2,786 3,060
EBITDA% 7.6 9.8 8.5 9.5 9.5
Finance Cost 404 465 503 465 390
Depreciation 679 725 787 814 841
Other Income 145 106 135 160 160
PBT 950 1,449 1,121 1,667 1,989
Tax 259 434 336 417 497
PAT 669 994 785 1,250 1,492
PAT% 2.7 3.8 2.9 4.3 4.6
EPS 16 24 19 30 36
Source: Company, YES Sec
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Recommendation Tracker
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