BUY
Result Update Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Ltd.
Target Price
22nd May, 2024 BFSI – Banks
64
Growth Not A Challenge, Seamless Management Transition A Key Monitorable!
Est. Vs. Actual for Q4FY24: NII – BEAT; PPOP – BEAT; PAT –BEAT (CMP as of 21 May, 2024)
Changes in Estimates post Q4FY24 CMP (Rs) 53
FY25E/FY26E: NII: 1.3%/0.4%; PPOP: -1.6%/-1.8%; PAT: -2.7%/-2.5%
Upside /Downside (%) 21%
Recommendation Rationale
Secured Businesses to steer healthy credit growth – UJSFB’s management expects credit High/Low (Rs) 63/32
growth to range between 20-25% in FY25E, with strong growth momentum visible across most Market cap (Cr) 10,356
segments. Hereon, growth will be driven by the non-MFI segments with continued momentum
in the Affordable Housing and FIG segment and pick-up in the MSME segment as the bank Avg. daily vol. (6m) Shrs. 1,10,26,735
aims at improving the share of secured businesses to 40% over the next couple of years vs No. of shares (Cr) 193.1
~30% currently. In the MFI portfolio, Individual loans will be a key growth driver largely aided by
graduating group loan customers. We bake in ~23% CAGR growth over FY24-26E, primarily Shareholding (%)
driven by the non-MFI book growing at 30+% CAGR over the same period.
Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24
Margins to be maintained at 9% in FY25E – While the portfolio shifts toward the secured
businesses along with increasing CoF (as the bank has increased TD rates by 25bps in Promoter 73.7 73.6 73.5
Mar’24) will keep margins under pressure, the management is confident of maintaining margins FIIs 3.5 3.7 3.5
at 9% in FY25E supported by (1) re-pricing opportunities in the MFI book as ~15% of book
sourced between Sep’22-Feb’23 and ~10% of the book sourced before Sep’22 is yet to be re- MFs / UTI 1.1 1.3 0.6
priced and (2) opportunity to negotiate on and control the CoF increase, owing to the recent Others 21.7 21.4 22.4
ratings upgrade. We expect NIMs to be maintained at 9% in FY25E before moderating to
~8.8% in FY26E. Financial & Valuations
Asset Quality to remain stable – Slippages during the quarter were higher QoQ owing to Y/E Mar (Rs Cr) FY24 FY25E FY26E
some flow (though controlled) from the states of Punjab and Haryana in the MFI book. The
NII 3,409 4,193 5,096
management believes these trends are temporary in nature and expects stress in these
geographies to subside from Q2FY25 onwards. The bank is also seeing certain pockets of PPOP 1,917 2,280 2,820
stress in the states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. However, the bank has proactively reduced its Net Profit 1,282 1,382 1,681
repeat loans to customers in order to control portfolio quality. As the book continues to season, EPS (Rs) 6.6 7.2 8.7
credit costs will continue to normalize and are expected to range between 1.4-1.5%.
ABV (Rs) 28.5 34.1 40.9
Sector Outlook: Positive
Company Outlook: Healthy demand across products along with a gradual scale-up in the new P/ABV (x) 1.9 1.6 1.3
products should help UJSFB sustain its growth momentum over the medium term. While near-term RoA (%) 3.5 3.0 2.9
NIMs are likely to remain steady at ~9% supported by loan repricing and some possible respite on NNPA (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3
CoF increase supported by ratings upgrade, margin contraction is imminent as the portfolio mix
shifts towards secured lending. Opex ratios will remain elevated to reflect the investments in tech Change in Estimates (%)
and human resources to build a strong platform to ensure growth. RoA will moderate and settle at
Y/E Mar FY25E FY26E
2.9-3% over FY25-26E owing to the normalisation of credit costs.
Current Valuation: 1.7x Sep’25E ABV Earlier Valuation: 1.8x Sep’25E ABV NII 1.3 0.4
Current TP: Rs 64/share Earlier TP: Rs 64/share PPOP -1.6 -1.8
Recommendation: We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock. PAT -2.7 -2.5
Alternate BUY Ideas from our Sector Coverage:
CreditAccess Grameen (TP – Rs 1,900); AU SFB (TP – Rs 715); Equitas SFB (TP – Rs 111) ESG disclosure Score**
Financial Performance
Environmental Disclosure N.A
Operational Performance – Disbursements grew by 11/18% YoY/QoQ, driven by a strong
growth in the non-MFI segments disbursements (+63/29% Yoy/qoQ), while MFI disbursements Social Disclosure Score N.A
remained flat YoY and grew by 14% QoQ. Advances grew by 24/7% YoY/QoQ with the share of Governance Disclosure Score N.A
the secured portfolio improving to 30.2% vs 28.4% QoQ. Deposits grew by 23/6% YoY/QoQ,
Total ESG Disclosure Score N.A
primarily driven by CASA Deposits (+24/10% YoY/QoQ), while TDs grew by 23/4% YoY/QoQ.
CASA Ratio improved to 26.5% vs 26.4/25.3% YoY/QoQ. Sector Average 38.8
Financial Performance – NII grew by 26/9% YoY/QoQ led by healthy advances growth and Source: Bloomberg, Scale: 0.1-100
margin expansion of 60bps QoQ. The bank witnessed improvement in CoF during the quarter. **Note: This score measures the amount of ESG data a company reports
publicly and does not measure the company's performance on any data
This was owing to a one-time benefit of ~17bps due to interest reversal on holding point. All scores are based on 2022 disclosures
company term deposit post-reverse merger. Non-interest income growth was healthy at
32/28% YoY/QoQ. Opex grew by 29/11% YoY/QoQ, primarily driven by other expenses (+28/18% Relative performance
YoY/QoQ). PPOP growth was strong at 26/13% YoY/QoQ. Credit costs are gradually normalizing 280
and stood at 110bps during the quarter vs 93bps QoQ. PAT grew by 7/10% YoY/QoQ. Asset
230
quality remained stable with GNPA/NNPA at 2.2/0.3% vs 2.2/0.2% QoQ.
180
Outlook
New product and secured business scale-up along with focused efforts on building a granular retail- 130
led CASA-focused liability franchise should keep the business growth momentum strong over the 80
Mar-23
Mar-24
May-23
May-24
Jan-23
Jan-24
Nov-22
Jul-23
Nov-23
Sep-23
medium term. We largely maintain our NII estimates, while we revise our earnings estimates
downwards by ~3% over FY25-26E to reflect higher Opex ratios and normalising credit costs.
Valuation & Recommendation
UJSFB SENSEX
UJSFB currently trades at 1.4x Sep’25E ABV and we value UJSFB at 1.7x Sep’25E ABV to arrive at
a target price of Rs 64/share, implying an upside of 21% from CMP. We maintain our BUY Source: Ace Equity, Axis Securities
recommendation on the stock.
Key Financials (Standalone)
(Rs Cr) Q4FY24 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Axis Est. Variance Dnyanada Vaidya
Research Analyst
Net Interest Income 934 +8.6 +26.5 901 +3.6
Email: [email protected]
PPOP 519 +13.4 +26.3 465 +11.4
Net Profit 330 +9.9 +6.5 290 +13.6 Prathamesh Sawant, CFA
NNPA (%) 0.3 +11 bps +24 bps 0.2 +7 bps Research Analyst
Email: [email protected]
RoA (%) - reported 3.3 -20bps -58bps 3.0 +27 bps
Source: Company, Axis Research
1
Key Highlights
Management Transition to be a key monitorable – The bank has received approval to appoint Mr Sanjeev
Nautiyal as the MD CEO w.e.f 01 Jul’24. He will be joining the bank as the interim president on 01 Jun’24. Mr
Nautiyal is a seasoned banker with over three decades of extensive strategic domain expertise in Retail, SME,
Financial Inclusion, Operations, HR, International Banking, and Treasury. He earlier held significant roles as
Deputy MD, Financial Inclusion & Micro Markets, SBI and MD & CEO, SBI Life Insurance. Mr Ittira Davis will
continue as an advisor.
Focus on building a granular deposit franchise – UJSFB has been seeing the benefit of the brand campaign
and introduction of value-added products during the year, which has been driving deposit growth. Going forward,
the bank’s focus will remain on driving deposit growth both digitally and physically with a focus towards building a
retail and granular deposit base. The bank aims to scale up its CASA Deposit franchise to ~30% over the medium-
to-long term. In FY25, the bank will continue to continue to invest in targeted brand campaigns. The
management remains confident that the MSME business ramp-up would also contribute towards building current
accounts as the asset product suite is designed towards meeting customers' requirements.
Opex to remain elevated – UJSFB will continue to expand its presence geographically and will add ~50 branches
in FY25. The bank will continue to invest in technology and people to ramp up products and build a strong base.
Thus, Opex ratios will continue to remain elevated in FY25.
Each Segment to contribute to growth
o Affordable Housing – The bank has piloted a new LOS in the affordable housing segment and launched it in
Apr’24. This will help the bank improve efficiency, reduce manual interventions, enable digital onboarding of
customers, improve productivity, and streamline the approval process. UJSFB has also added pre-qualified
top-up loans to the product suite for existing customers. The micro-mortgage segment has seen impressive
growth and the management expects the growth momentum to continue.
o MSME - The transition to MSME business is nearly complete and the LOS is likely to be launched in Q1FY25.
This will lead to significant improvement in critical metrics such as productivity, turnaround time etc. helping
the bank scale the product in a faster manner. To further augment the product offerings, UJSFB is closely
working with 4 Fintech partners, of which two have already been onboarded. As the supply chain finance
business (high-yielding product) from the fintech partners gains traction, it will add to the growth of the MSME
book. UJSFB’s strategy is to get customers from semi-formal, semi-urban areas and grow the portfolio
through both the fintech and its own distribution channel.
o New Products – UJSFB will continue to invest in emerging businesses, such as gold loans and vehicle
finance businesses. The bank plans to offer Gold loans from 250 branches by the end of FY25 vs 60
currently, and in the vehicle finance segment, the bank will deepen its presence in the existing 8 states.
Key Risks to our Estimates and TP
The key risk to our estimates remains a slowdown in overall credit growth which could potentially derail our
earnings estimates.
The scalability of new products and secured book remains a key monitorable.
2
Change in Estimates
Revised Old % Change
FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E
NII 4,193 5,096 4,138 5,076 1.3 0.4
PBP 2,280 2,820 2,318 2,870 -1.6 -1.8
Provisions 433 572 420 566 3.2 1.1
PAT 1,382 1,681 1,420 1,724 -2.7 -2.5
Source: Axis Securities
Results Review
(Rs Cr) Q4FY24 Q4FY23 % YoY Q3FY24 % QoQ FY24 FY23 % YoY
Net Interest Income 934 738 26.5 860 8.6 3,409 2,698 26.4
Non-Interest Income 236 179 31.9 185 27.8 787 589 33.5
Operating expenses 651 507 28.6 587 10.8 2,279 1,802 26.5
Staff Cost 327 253 29.2 314 4.2 1,183 920 28.6
Pre provision profits 519 411 26.3 457 13.4 1,917 1,485 29.1
Provisions and contingencies 79 -2 -4193.3 63 25.6 215 -12 -1937.1
PBT 440 413 6.6 394 11.5 1,702 1,497 13.7
Provision for Tax 110 103 6.7 94 16.5 421 367 14.5
PAT 330 310 6.5 300 9.9 1,281 1,129 13.5
Business Update
Disbursements 6,681 6,001 11.3 5,675 17.7 23,390 20,269 15.4
MFI - Group 3,712 3,939 -5.8 3,294 12.7 13,549 13,112 3.3
MFI - Individual 1,219 989 23.3 1,029 18.5 4,139 2,933 41.1
Affordable Housing 730 439 66.3 595 22.7 2,284 1,391 64.2
MSME 128 81 58.0 106 20.8 326 843 -61.3
FIG 546 318 71.7 379 44.1 1,538 918 67.5
Others 346 235 47.2 272 27.2 1,554 818 90.0
Gross Advances 29,780 24,086 23.6 27,743 7.3 29,780 24,086 23.6
MFI - Group 16,009 14,225 12.5 15,471 3.5 16,009 14,225 12.5
MFI - Individual 4,799 3,141 52.8 4,304 11.5 4,799 3,141 52.8
FIG 1,731 1,128 53.5 1,435 20.6 1,731 1,128 53.5
Affordable Housing 4,924 3,401 44.8 4,417 11.5 4,924 3,401 44.8
MSME 1,414 1,593 -11.2 1,397 1.2 1,414 1,593 -11.2
Others 902 598 50.8 719 25.5 902 598 50.8
Cost-Income ratio (%) 55.7 55.2 44 bps 56.2 -56 bps 54.2 54.9 -69 bps
Asset Quality
Gross NPA (%) 2.2 2.9 -65 bps 2.2 5 bps 2.2 2.9 -65 bps
Net NPA (%) 0.3 0.0 24 bps 0.2 11 bps 0.3 0.0 24 bps
PCR (%) 87.0 99.0 -1200 bps 95.0 -800 bps 87.0 99.0 -1200 bps
Capital Adequacy
CRAR (%) 24.7 25.8 -111 bps 24.4 33 bps 24.7 25.8 -111 bps
Tier I (%) 22.6 22.7 -10 bps 22.0 63 bps 22.6 22.7 -10 bps
Tier II (%) 2.1 3.1 -101 bps 2.4 -30 bps 2.1 3.1 -101 bps
Source: Company, Axis Securities
3
Financials (Standalone)
Profit & Loss (Rs Cr)
Y/E March FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
Net Interest Income 2,698 3,409 4,193 5,096
Non-Interest Income 589 787 845 951
Total Income 3,287 4,196 5,038 6,047
Operating Expenses 1,802 2,279 2,758 3,228
Pre-Provision Profits 1,485 1,917 2,280 2,820
Provisions 18 215 433 572
PBT 1,467 1,702 1,848 2,248
Tax 367 421 466 567
Profit After Tax 1,100 1,282 1,382 1,681
Source: Company, Axis Securities
Balance Sheet (Rs Cr)
Y/E March FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
Equity Share Capital 1,955 1,931 1,931 1,931
ESOPs 51 52 67 82
Preference Capital 200 200 200 200
Reserves & Surplus 2,003 3,610 4,744 6,089
Net Worth 3,958 5,541 6,675 8,020
Deposits 25,538 31,462 39,085 48,842
Borrowings 2,641 2,171 3,530 4,378
Other Liabilities 929 1,176 1,478 1,835
Total Liabilities 33,317 40,602 51,035 63,358
Cash & Bank balances 2,484 2,537 3,150 3,936
Investments 8,510 9,766 12,914 16,138
Loans 21,290 26,883 33,140 41,010
Fixed Assets & Others 1,033 1,416 1,831 2,274
Total Assets 33,317 40,602 51,035 63,358
Source: Company, Axis Securities
4
Ratio Analysis (%)
Y/E March FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
VALUATION RATIOS
EPS 5.6 6.6 7.2 8.7
Earnings Growth (%) -335.7 17.9 7.8 21.7
BVPS 20.2 28.7 34.6 41.5
Adj. BVPS 20.2 28.3 34.1 40.9
RoA (%) 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.9
ROAE (%) 33.7 27.0 22.6 22.9
P/E (x) 9.4 8.0 7.4 6.1
P/ABV (x) 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.3
PROFITABILITY & OPERATING EFFICIENCY
NIM (%) 9.5 9.1 9.0 8.8
Cost/Avg. Asset Ratio (%) 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.6
Cost-Income Ratio (%) 54.8 54.3 54.7 53.4
BALANCE SHEET STRUCTURE RATIOS
Loan Growth (%) 30.6 26.3 23.3 23.7
Deposits Growth (%) 39.6 23.2 24.2 25.0
Equity/Assets (%) 6.0 8.9 9.3 9.6
Equity/Loans (%) 18.6 20.6 20.1 19.6
Total Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) 25.8 24.7 22.8 21.3
ASSET QUALITY
Gross NPLs (%) 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.3
Net NPLs (%) 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3
Coverage Ratio (%) 98.6 87.6 87.5 87.5
Provision/Avg. AUM (%) 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.5
ROAA TREE (on Total Assets)
Net Interest Income 9.5 9.2 9.2 8.9
Non-Interest Income 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.7
Operating Cost 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.6
Provisions 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.0
Tax 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0
ROAA 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.9
Leverage (x) 8.7 7.8 7.5 7.8
ROAE 33.7 27.0 22.6 22.9
Source: Company, Axis Securities
5
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Price Chart and Recommendation History
(Rs)
Date Reco TP Research
08-Feb-22 HOLD 20 Result Update
13-May-22 BUY 23 Result Update
27-Jul-22 BUY 26 Result Update
19-Sep-22 BUY 31 Company Update
09-Nov-22 BUY 34 Result Update
03-Feb-23 BUY 37 Result Update
12-May-23 BUY 37 Result Update
12-Jun-23 BUY 45 Result Update
28-Jul-23 BUY 54 Result Update
06-Oct-23 BUY 64 AAA
30-Oct-23 BUY 64 Result Update
25-Jan-24 BUY 64 Result Update
22-May-24 BUY 64 Result Update
Source: Axis Securities
6
About the Analyst
Analyst: Dnyanada Vaidya
Sector: BFSI
Analyst Bio: Dnyanada Vaidya is MMS (Finance) with over 6 years of research experience in the
Banking/NBFC sector.
About the Analyst
Analyst: Prathamesh Sawant, CFA
Sector: BFSI
Analyst Bio: Prathamesh Sawant is MBA (Finance) and CFA Charter holder with over 7 years of experience
in Equity Research & Valuation.
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7
DEFINITION OF RATINGS
Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12-18 months
BUY More than 10%
HOLD Between 10% and -10%
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NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning valuation and recommendation
UNDER REVIEW We will revisit our recommendation, valuation and estimates on the stock following recent events
NO STANCE We do not have any forward-looking estimates, valuation or recommendation for the stock
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Digitally signed by
NEERAJ NEERAJ CHADAWAR
CHADAWAR Date: 2024.05.22
07:40:56 +05'30'
