CLIMATE VARIABILITY INDUCED SHIFTS OF THE WAVE CLIMATE IN MEXICO
Rodolfo Silva, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, [email protected]:
Itxaso Odériz, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México,
[email protected] Thomas Mortlock, Risk Frontiers, Australia, and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Macquarie University,
Australia,
[email protected] Ismael Mariño-Tapia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México,
[email protected]INTRODUCTION detected. The classification employs the k-mean and
Inter-annual variability of wave climates is important for monthly mean wave direction and wave power. ERA 5
coastal risk assessment because these fluctuations can reanalysis was used, with hourly data and 0.5° x 0.5°
increase or decrease seasonal erosion risk (Wahl and spatial resolution for the period 1979-2018. The
Plant 2015). Understanding how long-term variability classification identified: Extra-Tropical high wave power
affects the seasonality of sediment transport is an Westerly (ETW), low wave power Tropical Easterly (TE),
important challenge in risk assessments (Toimil et al. and moderate wave power Sub-Tropical Southerly (STS).
2020). There have been many attempts to quantify long- Each climate exhibits variability in wave power and
term variability in offshore wave climate, as this is the direction on a seasonal to inter-annual basis. The wave
primary driver of coastal processes on sandy coasts. climates are shown in Figure 1. ETW covers the mid
However, there is very little work on how the long-term latitudes (± 30°, ± 60°) of the North Pacific (grey). TE
variability of wave climate influences sediment transport. affects the middle and west of the tropical Atlantic,
One of the most important drivers of sediment transport associated with the Trade Winds (blue). STS is generated
is the mean wave direction of incoming waves (Barnard by the high pressure ridge of the Southern Hemisphere
et al. 2015; Hemer, Church, and Hunter 2010; Morim et which produces the largest swells that propagate
al. 2019), although it is still not fully understood. An northward (beige). A detailed analysis of these wave
important contribution in this regard is the work of climate types will be published shortly.
(Barnard et al. 2015), who found that El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) dominates coastal vulnerability in the
Pacific Ocean. On the other hand, several works at global
scale (Godoi and Torres Júnior 2020; Reguero, Losada,
and Méndez 2019; Stopa and Cheung 2014) have found
that ENSO is the climatic driver that most affects the
interannual variability of the wave climate. However,
understanding how ENSO impacts wave direction is still
lacking.
The present work aims to quantify the wave direction
anomalies of the main wave climate types (Extra-Tropical
Westerlies, Subtropical Southerlies, and Tropical
Easterlies) that affect the coast of Mexico, and quantify
the anomalies induced by ENSO. The work is based on
the wave climate classification of Odériz et al. (2020). The
anomalies in direction for each wave climate types were
calculated, and the composite anomalies were calculated
for the different phases of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña).
STUDY AREA
The present work focuses on four cases in Mexico where Figure 1 – sea level pressure (SLP) in winter (December,
different wave climate types prevail. Ensenada, in the January and February, DJF), data from NCEP- CFSR (Saha,
northwest, which is strongly influenced by Extratropical Suranjana 2010), and the mechanisms responsible for the
wave climate, Puerto Vallarta in the central west, and wave climates from 1979 to 2018.
Acapulco in the southwest, both influenced by
Extratropical and Subtropical wave climates. Finally, WAVE DIRECTION VARIABILITY FOR MEXICO
Puerto Morelos, in the southeast, which is strongly Odériz et al. (2020) carried out a detailed study of the wave
influenced by Tropical wave climate. climates on the Mexican coast. From this, four wave climate
systems were identified:
GLOBAL WAVE CLIMATE TYPES
1) Northwest (Pacific) coasts, where ETW prevails
In previous work, wave climates were classified (Odériz 2) Centre-west (Pacific) coasts, where both ETW,
et al. 2020) into Extra-tropical, Subtropical and Tropical and STS influence waves and coastal
wave climates. Different mechanisms in the lower hydrodynamics.
structure of the atmosphere generate these distinct wave 3) Southwest (Pacific) coasts, affected by STS and
climates and large scale atmospheric phenomena can be occasionally by ETW.
4) Caribbean coasts, where Tropical wave climate climates. However, the two wave climates overlap in
prevail. Acapulco, with anomalies (-25°,22°), while, in Puerto Vallarta,
Four cases studies (Ensenada, Puerto Vallarta, Acapulco, ETW (-31°,31°) has more variability than STS (-11°,9°).
and Puerto Morelos) were selected, representative of each Puerto Morelos has the greatest monthly variability in wave
of these regions. The anomalies in wave direction were direction, ±40 º, induced by Tropical wave climate. This is
computed for each region and the directions were probably because seasonally the Intertropical Convergence
associated to each wave climate type, as shown in the wave Zone shifts latitudinally. In general the anomalies presented
roses of Figure 2 (a, c, f, i). by the Westerlies and Tropical climates are greater than the
anomalies of the Southerlies. The Westerlies and Tropical
The monthly anomalies were calculated for each wave wave climates depend on the relative positon of the High and
climate type: the wave direction minus the average of the Low pressure belts, and any changes in the position of either
mean direction of the corresponding month (Equation 1). To their centres can lead to shifts in the mean wave direction
calculate the anomalies, only the values corresponding to produced by these systems.
each climate were considered.
𝑖=𝑁 WAVE DIRECTION SHIFTS INDUCED BY ENSO
1
𝐷𝑖𝑟𝐴𝐶𝑇 𝑛 = 𝐷𝑖𝑟𝐶𝑇 𝑛 − ∑ 𝐷𝑖𝑟𝑖 𝐶𝑇𝑛 ; 𝑛 = 1,2, … , 12; CT It is important to have an understanding of the variability of
𝑁 the directional wave climate, and atmospheric drivers over a
𝑖=0
= ETW, STS, TE. range of time scales (i.e. seasonal to multi decadal) to
evaluate coastal risk.
One of the most important drivers of wave climate is ENSO.
Particularly, ENSO impacts the Extratropical Wave Climate
in the North Pacific (Odériz 2020). At local scale, for each
climate type, the wave direction composite anomalies for
ENSO was computed, the phases of El Niño (ONI>=0.5) and
La Niña (ONI<=-0.5) were considered.
The ETW in Ensenada and the TE in Puerto Morelos have
opposite responses to ENSO in El Niño and La Niña phases,
Table 1. The ETW in Puerto Vallarta and Acapulco shifts
clockwise (anticlockwise) during El Niño (La Niña). Opposite
is the response of wave direction to ENSO phases of STS
type.
Table 1. Wave direction composite anomalies for ENSO.
Puerto Puerto
Ensenada Vallarta Acapulco Morelos
Niño
Niña
Niño
Niña
Niño
Niña
Niño
Niña
EL
EL
EL
EL
La
La
La
La
STS - - 0.33 0.64 -1.01 1.61 - -
ETW -0.66 1.42 3.32 -1.91 3.22 -1.89 - -
TE - - - - - - 0.88 -0.64
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