The Future of

Technology Management
and the
Business Environment
This page intentionally left blank
 The Future of Technology
Management and the Business
Environment
Lessons on Innovation, Disruption,
and Strategy Execution

Alfred Marcus
Publisher: Paul Boger
Editor-in-Chief: Amy Neidlinger
Executive Editor: Jeanne Levine
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© 2016 by Pearson Education, Inc.
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Printed in the United States of America
First Printing December 2015
ISBN-10: 0-13-399613-1
ISBN-13: 978-0-13-399613-5
Pearson Education LTD.
Pearson Education Australia PTY, Limited.
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Library of Congress Control Number: 2015951698
 To my wife, my two sons, David and Ariel;
to Massoud Amin, director of the Technological Leadership Institute (TLI) at the
University of Minnesota, who describes himself as “a happy geek on a mission with
expertise in complex systems, energy, defense, pioneering smart self-healing grid,
CIP security, and resilience”; and to all among us who seek peace in a time of turbulence.
 Contents-at-a Glance

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

PART I: TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Chapter 1 Technological Disruptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Chapter 2 Commercialization’s Obstacles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Chapter 3 Hedging the Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

PART II: MANAGING DANGER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Chapter 4 Dealing with Danger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

Chapter 5 Laws of Liability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

PART III: THE ENVIRONMENT OF TECHNOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . 85

Chapter 6 Old, Young, and Global Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

Chapter 7 Rich, Poor, and Global Inequality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

Chapter 8 Abundance, Scarcity, and Global Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129

PART IV: COPING WITH TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTIONS . . 147

Chapter 9 Missing the Boat on Mobile Technology: Intel and AMD . . . . . . . . . 149
Chapter 10 From Mass Customizing to Mass Commodity: Dell and Acer . . . . . 167

Chapter 11 Finding Growth and Profitability in Bookselling:

Barnes & Noble and Amazon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189

Chapter 12 Escaping the Middle: Best Buy and Charles Schwab . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

Chapter 13 Content for a New Age: Disney and Time Warner. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229

Final Thoughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
 Contents

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
The Next Set of Breakthroughs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
The Information Revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
Medical Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
Genetics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
Alternative Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
Artificial Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
Material Sciences and Nanotechnology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
What This Book Is About. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
Part I: Technology and Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
Part II: Managing Danger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
Part III: The Environment of Technology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
Part IV: Coping with Technological Disruptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

PART I: TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Chapter 1 Technological Disruptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
The Powers of the Mind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
Information Technology (IT) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
Medical Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
Genetics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
Alternative Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
Artificial Intelligence, Material Sciences, and Nanotechnology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
The Challenge of Commercialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18

Chapter 2 Commercialization’s Obstacles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19

Fumbling the Future at Xerox: IT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
Medical Technology: Cochlear Implants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
Basic Research in Diverse Labs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
Breakthroughs in Other Disciplines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
A Highly Committed Champion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
Multiple Developmental Paths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
 Private Firms’ Failure to Cooperate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
Professional Endorsement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
FDA Approval . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
Lack of Enthusiasm from the User Community. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
High Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
Safety and Efficacy Concerns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
Auxiliary Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
Withdrawal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
New Entrants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
Genetics: Agricultural Productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
Sustainability as a Corporate Goal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
Opposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
Rapid U.S. Market Penetration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
More Promised Progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26
Government Restrictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26
Environmentalists’ Criticism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26
Competition from DuPont . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27
Alternative Energy: The Electric Car . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27
Less Pollution and Foreign Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28
Range and Fossil Fuels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28
1990s’ Failure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
Hybrid Successes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
Weak Plug-In Sales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
Battery Subsidies from the U.S. Government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
A Solution from Tesla and Panasonic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30
Not Yet Affordable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30
A New Business Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
The Slow and Arduous Path to Commercialization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
Why Xerox Missed Its Opportunity: Game Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32
Setbacks at Many Points. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
Uncertain Government Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
Project Management Insufficient to Overcome These Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35
The Inclination to Undertake Safe Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
Technologies Push and Markets Pull . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
Determination, Will, and Persistence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37

viii Contents
 Chapter 3 Hedging the Uncertainty. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40
Expert Opinion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40
Historical Analogies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
Industry Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42
Scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42
Surprises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43
Taking Notice of the Periphery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43
Romances, Tragedies, and Comedies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44
The Narrative Details . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44
Applying Scenario Logic to Technology Commercialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45
Strategic Adjustments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46
Hedging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
Gamble on the Most Probable Outcome . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
Take the Robust Route. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48
Delay Until Further Clarity Emerges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49
Commit with Fallbacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49
Shape the Future. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50

PART II: MANAGING DANGER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Chapter 4 Dealing with Danger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55
Bhopal: What Went Wrong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55
Highly Toxic Chemicals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55
Weak Infrastructure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56
An Uncontrolled Explosion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56
Nonfunctioning Backups. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57
Trapped Victims . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57
Organizational Shortcomings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57
Warnings Ignored. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58
The Price of the Accident . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58
The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: What Went Wrong. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
Beyond Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
Tar Sands Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
Explosion in Texas City and Oil Leaks in Alaska . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
The Spill . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60
The Many Mistakes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60

Acknowledgments ix
 Inherently Dangerous Technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61
Dilemmas in Managing Dangerous Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63
Individual Cognitive Limits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64
Experts’ Cognitive Limits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64
Organizations’ Cognitive Limits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64
How Much a Life Is Worth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65
Inferences from Animal Studies to Humans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66

Chapter 5 Laws of Liability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69

Vioxx: What Went Wrong? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69
Merck’s Positive Reputation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70
The Search for a Blockbuster Drug Without Gastrointestinal
Complications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70
Early Warnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70
Failure to Communicate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71
The FDA’s Required Warning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71
More Criticism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .72
Voluntary Recall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .72
Thousands of Suits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .72
Criminal Charges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73
Johnson & Johnson’s Hip Replacement: What Went Wrong? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73
A Paragon of Social Responsibility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74
The Acquisition of DePuy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74
All-Metal Replacements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74
Design Problems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75
FDA Investigations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75
A Voluntary Recall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75
Suits Against the Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .76
The Reimbursement Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .76
The Laws of Liability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77
Evolution of the Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77
Classic Tort Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78
Assumption of Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78
Punitive Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78
Strict Liability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79
The Justification for Strict Liability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79

x About the Author

 Further Movement from a Fault-Based System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .80
Refinements of the Laws of Liability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .82

PART III: THE ENVIRONMENT OF TECHNOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . 85

Chapter 6 Old, Young, and Global Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87
The Rise of the Elderly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87
Declining Fertility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88
Economic Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90
Technology to Assist the Elderly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91
A Cure for Alzheimer’s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91
Reversing Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .93
Among the Young: Hope and Disillusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96
Meaningful Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .97
What Next . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100
Diminishing Youth Bulges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102
Technology to Combat Terror . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .106
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .108
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .108

Chapter 7 Rich, Poor, and Global Inequality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .111

Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .111
Within Country Gaps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112
Between-Country Gaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112
The U.S. Wealth Gap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .113
The Rise of Neoliberalism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115
Technology at the Top of the Pyramid. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117
Sophisticated Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117
What Hedge Funds Do. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .118
Only for the Already Wealthy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .119
Renaissance Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .120
Technology at the Bottom of the Pyramid. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121
Telecommunications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .122
Potable Water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .123
Health Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .124
Nutrition and Crop Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .124

Contents xi
 Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .125
Critiques. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .125
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127

Chapter 8 Abundance, Scarcity, and Global Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . .129

Fossil Fuels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .130
Oil Price Declines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .130
Hydraulic Fracking. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .132
Tar Sands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133
Offshore Recovery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .134
Cleaner Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .135
Building Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .136
Industrial and Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .138
Solar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .138
Wind. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .140
Energy Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .142
Biofuels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .143
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .145
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .145

PART IV: COPING WITH TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTIONS . . 147

Chapter 9 Missing the Boat on Mobile Technology: Intel and AMD . . . . . .149
The Mobile Revolution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .149
The Battles Between Intel and AMD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .152
Memory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .152
Microprocessors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .153
The Sub-Zero Segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .153
Speed and Continued Price Wars. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .154
Branching Out. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .155
The Hammer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .156
Global Antitrust . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .157
Graphics and Other Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .157
Divesting Manufacturing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .158
Searching for New Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .158
ARM Architecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .159
Mobile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .159
Gaming. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .159

xii Contents
 Mounting Mobile Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .160
New Leadership at AMD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .160
Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .162
The Internet of Things (IOT) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .162
Smart Glasses and Augmented Reality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .163
Risks Ahead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .164
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .164
Glossary of Computer Terminology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .165
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .165

Chapter 10 From Mass Customizing to Mass Commodity: Dell and Acer . . .167
Financial Woes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .168
An Industry in Decline. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .170
The Fat Years: Dell’s Ascent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .170
A Competency in Mass Customization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .171
Gateway Abandons the Direct Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .173
The Lean Years: Michael Dell’s Resignation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .174
Acer’s Acquisition of Gateway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .176
Dell’s Plans for a Recovery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .177
The Enterprise Market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .181
Becoming a Private Company. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .182
Acer’s Efforts at Revitalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .183
Notebooks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .183
Smartphones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .183
Free Cloud . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .185
IOT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .185
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .185
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .186

Chapter 11 Finding Growth and Profitability in Bookselling:

Barnes & Noble and Amazon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .189
Barnes & Noble and the Superstore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .189
Amazon and Internet Commerce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .191
Amazon’s Reinvention. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .192
Barnes & Noble’s Focus on Books. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .194
Sinking Profits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .195
Amazon’s Fluid Identity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .195
Profiting from the Cloud . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .197

Contents xiii
 Barnes & Noble’s Decision to Split Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .198
Spinning Off the Nook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .198
Spinning Off the College Division . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .199
How Attractive Was Bookselling?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .200
Sales Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .200
Reading Habits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .201
Leisure Time Choices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .201
Digital Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .202
The Publishers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .202
Wholesale. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .203
The Big Five. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .203
The Spat with Amazon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .204
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .205
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .205

Chapter 12 Escaping the Middle: Best Buy and Charles Schwab . . . . . . . . . . .209
The Evolution of Best Buy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .210
Concept One: 1983–1989. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .211
Concept Two: 1990–2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .211
Concept Three: 2002–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .212
The Aftermath of the Financial Meltdown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .214
The Evolution of Charles Schwab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .214
Discounting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .214
High Net Worth Clients . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215
A Category of One. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215
The Affluent of the Future. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .216
Following Customers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .216
New Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .217
Competition in Consumer Electronics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .217
Online. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .217
Showrooming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .218
Competition Among Discount Brokers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .218
Innovation Dilemmas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .219
Major Industry Players . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .219
Best Buy’s Comeback Plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .220
Transforming E-Commerce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .220
Cost Savings and Product Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .221

xiv Contents
 Enhancing the Internet Platform: Charles Schwab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .222
Ranking the Platforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .223
The Robo-Advisor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .223
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .224
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .225

Chapter 13 Content for a New Age: Disney and Time Warner . . . . . . . . . . . .229
Vertical Integration: Disney. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .230
Vertical Integration: Time Warner. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .231
Mergers, Acquisitions, and Divestitures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .232
The Disney-Capital Cities Merger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .235
ABC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .236
The Iger Era. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .237
The AOL-Time Warner Merger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .237
Trying to Revive AOL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .238
Slimming Down . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .239
HBO’s Edginess and Success . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .240
Disney’s Dominance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .241
Cable Channels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .241
The Studios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .242
Internet Initiatives and Cable’s Abandonment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .243
Losing Young People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .244
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .245
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .246

Final Thoughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .249

The Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment:
Lessons on Innovation, Disruption, and Strategy Execution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .249

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .251

Contents xv
 Acknowledgments

I would like to acknowledge my colleagues and my students. At the University of Min-

nesota Carlson School of Management, I have learned about innovation from Andrew
Van de Ven; about strategy from Aks Zaheer, Myles Shaver, Mary Benner, Aseem Kaul,
and Anne Cohen; about entrepreneurship from Shaker Zahra, Harry Sapienza, and
Dan Forbes; about the environment of business from Iain Maitland, Sri Zaheer, Joel
Waldfogel, Paul Vaaler, Gurneeta Singh, Jiao Luo, Russel Funk, and Sunasair Dutta; and
about timing from Stu Albert. My sincere hope is that the timing of this book is right.
At the Technological Leadership Institute, which is part of College of Science and Engi-
neering at the University of Minnesota, I have learned from the director, Massoud Amin,
to whom this book is dedicated, and from Lockwood Carlson, Kirk Froggat, Steve Kel-
ley, and Brian Isle. At the Technion in Haifa, where I teach in the spring mini-semester
in the MBA program, I have learned from Eitan Naveh, Mia Erez, Dovev Lavie, Ella
Meron-Spektor, Erev Ido, Avi Shtub, and Ella Glickson. The many outstanding MBA
and Masters of Technology students at the University of Minnesota and the Technion
have inspired me to think deeply about technology. I am also indebted to the colleagues
with whom I have done research in areas related to technology, including Ari Ginsberg at
NYU Stern, Joel Malen at Hitotsubashi University of Innovation Research Japan, Adam
Fremeth at Ivey Business School Canada, Mazhar Islam at Tulane University, Susan K.
Cohen at the Katz School of Business University of Pittsburgh, J. Alberto Aragon-Correa
at University of Surrey, and Hans Rawhouser and Michael Cummings at University of
Nevada Las Vegas.
I have had the good fortune of living full time in Minnesota, with its thriving established
business sector, and part-time in Israel, with its aspiring entrepreneurial business sec-
tor. The great companies in both these places have provided me with many of my ideas
about technology. Merav Lefkowitz, who helped me edit this book, deserves a very spe-
cial thanks for the superb work she did. My wife, Judy, always inspires me with her care
for my physical, psychological, and intellectual well-being, her patience, and her insights
about current affairs. My son, David, who is co-editor of Dissent and teacher of history at
Columbia, and my son Ariel, who is a Spotify data scientist, have brought me fresh views
about technology’s promise and pitfalls. The world in which they live is so different from
the world in which I grew up largely because of technology. I also want to thank Jeanne
Levine of Pearson for encouraging me to do this project, Natasha Wolmers of Pearson
for commenting on earlier drafts, and Lori Lyons for moving the manuscript through
the production process.

xvi Acknowledgments
 About the Author

Alfred A. Marcus is the Edson Spence Chair of Strategy and Technological Leadership
at the University of Minnesota, Carlson School of Management and the Center for Tech-
nological Leadership. He is the author or co-author of many books, including Innova-
tions in Sustainability published by Cambridge University Press; Management Strategy,
published by McGraw Hill; Strategic Foresight, published by Palgrave MacMillan; and
Big Winners and Big Losers, published by Pearson. His articles have appeared in the Stra-
tegic Management Journal, Academy of Management Journal, Academy of Management
Review, California Management Review, Business and Politics, Business and Society, and
Organization Science, among other places.
His Ph.D. is from Harvard, and he has undergraduate and graduate degrees from the
University of Chicago. Besides teaching in the Carlson School and Technological Leader-
ship Institute at the University of Minnesota, Professor Marcus teaches in the Industrial
Engineering Department in the MBA program in the Technion in Israel. He also has
taught management courses in France, Norway, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania,
and Costa Rica.
Professor Marcus has consulted or worked with many corporations, including 3M,
Corning, Excel Energy, Medtronic, General Mills, and IBM. He was involved in a mul-
tinational research project sponsored by the NSF involving companies in the United
States, Finland, Israel, and India. He did a sabbatical year at the MIT Sloan School in
Boston. Prior to the joining Minnesota’s faculty, he taught at the University of Pittsburgh
Graduate School Of Business and was a research scientist at the Battelle Human Affairs
Research Centers in Seattle, Washington.

About the Author xvii

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 Introduction

T
echnology is both the cause of many of the world’s problems and the best hope
for their cure. All the classical economists of the late 18th and early 19th cen-
turies, including Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and John Stuart Mill, stressed
the importance of technological changes. Thomas Malthus’s pessimism that runaway
population growth would lead to increasing misery as the world’s population expanded
more rapidly than the food supply proved wrong because technological changes stayed
ahead of population growth.
Prosperity is closely linked to technological advances. Technology is critical to the
world’s continued economic growth. It provides the knowledge to convert the factors
of production into goods and services. It also gives rise to an efficient division of labor,
improves productivity, and permits the accumulation of capital. In his book The Long
Wave Cycle, the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev (1892–1938) maintained that
economic progress took place not linearly, but in long waves, each of them lasting about
half a century.1 Each wave had periods of prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery.
In Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy, the Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter
connected technological innovations to the waves of economic growth.2 Schumpeter’s
argument was that technological change was a series of explosions in which one set of
technologies replaced another (see Exhibit 1.1). The first period (l782–1845) was marked
by major innovations in steam power and textiles; the second (1845–l892) was marked
by major innovations in railroads, iron, coal, and construction; and the third period
(1892–1948) was characterized by major innovations in electrical power, automobiles,
chemicals, and steel.

1
Exhibit I.1 Waves of Innovation
1845–1892 Railroads, iron, coal, construction
1892–1948 Electrical power, automobiles, chemicals, steel
1948–1973 Aerospace, pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, synthetic and composite materials
1973–present Information technology, medical technology, genetics, alternative energy, artificial
intelligence, the material sciences, and nanotechnology

The Next Set of Breakthroughs

From where will the next set of breakthroughs come? The American sociologist Daniel
Bell has proposed, in his book The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social
Forecasting, that the period since 1973 has been one of post-industrialism,3 in which
ideas are more important than the material forces that dominated previous periods of
economic growth. In this era, information technology (IT), medical technology, genetics,
alternative energy, and advances in artificial intelligence, material sciences, and nano-
technology are dominant forces.

The Information Revolution

The information revolution has made it possible to disseminate knowledge instanta-
neously around the globe, which gives the rise to virtual communities that create and
enable an expanded international economy. With massive digitization, almost limitless
storage in the cloud, and ubiquitous mobility, the information revolution has trans-
formed how people learn, communicate, shop, travel, and socialize. The colossal data
analytic capabilities called big data now promise degrees of reliability, productivity, and
system optimization that have never before been experienced in history.

Medical Technologies
Advances in medical technology are easing pain, eliminating many childhood diseases,
and prolonging life. They facilitate the early detection and treatment of infectious dis-
eases, the tracking of chronic diseases, the prevention of medical errors, and increased
health care accuracy. The hope is that they will be able to lower health care costs as well.

Genetics
The new genetics, including the Human Genome project, provide the foundation for
medical advances and for greater agricultural biotechnology that should allow the world
to feed the nine to ten million people projected to inhabit the planet by 2050 using less
land.

2 The Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment

Alternative Energy
Renewable resources from the sun, wind, and plant material are starting to replace finite
energy sources from coal, oil, and natural gas. Progress involving electric and other
alternative vehicles has been made toward greater energy efficiency. On the horizon are
smart appliances as well as a smarter electric grid.

Artificial Intelligence
With massive amounts of computational power, artificial intelligence is making deep
inroads into machine learning and speech recognition. Because of biomimetic sensors,
many tasks formerly carried out by human beings can be more reliably performed by
computer–assisted machines.

Material Sciences and Nanotechnology

Advances in material sciences and nanotechnology have helped to produce computer
memory that has greater speed. They also have generated designer alloys, ceramics, and
polymers that provide for materials with super strength and other desirable properties.
Combined, and with their offshoots, these technologies offer great promise for bringing
into being new economic growth and prosperity. Among other innovations, they enable
wearable computers, the Internet of Things (IOT), targeted drug delivery, rapid bioas-
says, fuel cell cars, energy storage, advanced robotics, and 3D printing. These innova-
tions may be the engines of growth and the sources for fulfilling employment for millions
of people, or they may not be.

What This Book Is About

Their potential is what this book explores. These innovations face obstacles to their
commercialization that must be managed by business firms and societies. From a com-
mercial point of view, let alone a scientific and technical point of view, their success is
not guaranteed. Their introduction involves risky decision-making.
As an unintended by-product of their introduction, these technologies can and do cause
harm. Their widespread penetration, for example, does not guarantee job creation. They
are likely to wipe out jobs as well as create them. They have both environmental and
social costs. The servers that sustain the cloud are huge consumers of energy. Even the
most well-intentioned new medical technology often has unforeseen side effects. This
harm must be anticipated and prevented to the degree that it is possible without com-
promising society’s willingness to take risks and make progress.
New technologies also offer tremendous potential for dealing with the most important
societal challenges of this era. This era is characterized by cleavages between young and

Introduction 3
old, rich and poor, and scarcity and abundance. These technologies can address these
issues constructively. They can play a role in easing these tensions, but they also can
exacerbate them.
This book is about the foresight and strategic actions that are needed for technologies
to play a positive rather than a negative role. It is about the pathways that have been
taken to commercialize some of these technologies, how some of these pathways have
been blocked, and how some of them have been opened. It is about the disruptions that
organizations have faced as a result of technological innovations they did not expect
and how they have dealt with these disruptions by altering their business strategies and
executing novel strategies. This book depicts the stories of many companies and how
they have confronted these issues. The purpose is to learn lessons from the experience
of these companies.
The book is divided into four sections: Technology and Strategy, Managing Danger, The
Environment of Technology, and Coping with Technological Disruptions. It is meant
for practitioners and students, for those already well versed on the issues in the book and
novices. The juxtaposition of the material found in this book is designed to generate new
insights. Reflection on the material will yield takeaway lessons on innovation, disrup-
tion, and strategy execution, technology management, and the business environment
for executives, practicing managers, and students. The sections in the book are best read
in their entirety, but they can also be read separately. The five paired case studies in the
last section of the book are ideal for executive, MBA, and undergraduate instruction in
management of technology courses.
The material in this book is based on my more than thirty years of writing, teaching, and
consulting in the areas of business strategy, ethics, and technology. I owe a great deal to
my colleagues and to my students at the Technological Leadership Institute and Carl-
son School of Management at the University of Minnesota and the Technion Faculty of
Industrial Engineering and Management.

Part I: Technology and Strategy

Chapter 1, “Technological Disruptions,” starts with Schumpeter’s idea that technology
is a series of explosions and Bell’s idea that the current era is one of post-industrialism.
It discusses leading-edge technologies that may sustain economic growth in a post-
industrial world.
Chapter 2, “Commercialization’s Obstacles,” goes into detail about the obstacles in com-
mercializing leading-edge technologies. It provides stories of attempts to commercialize
IT technologies, a medical technology to assist the hearing impaired, genetic technol-
ogy with the aim to increase agricultural productivity, and an electric car to move the
planet away from its dependence on fossil fuels. This chapter comments on the slow
and arduous path to commercialization, the setbacks at many points, the uncertainty of

4 The Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment

government support, the inclination to undertake safe projects, and the need for deter-
mination, will, and persistence.
Chapter 3, “Hedging Uncertainty,” is about how business organizations can manage the
uncertain outcomes described in the previous chapter. It considers the use of trends,
expert opinion, industry analysis, and historical analogies, and it elaborates on the value
of using scenarios, the topic of one of my previous books, Strategic Foresight: A New Look
at Scenarios.4 It goes on to put forth a series of hedging strategies that organizations can
use to deal with the uncertainty: gamble on the most probable outcome, take the robust
route, delay until further clarity emerges, commit with fallbacks, and shape the future.

Part II: Managing Danger

The next part of this book deals with unanticipated consequences and the need to man-
age danger.
Chapter 4, “Dealing with Danger,” focuses on two major industrial accidents—Bhopal
and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill—and what went wrong. It highlights dilemmas in
managing dangerous technologies, such as the cognitive limits of individuals, experts,
and organizations. It expounds upon the issue of determining the value of a human life
and extrapolating and making inferences from animal studies to humans.
Chapter 5, “Laws of Liability,” focuses on major mishaps in introducing new medical
technologies—Merck’s Vioxx and Johnson and Johnson’s DePuy all-metal hip replace-
ment. In both instances, despite ample warning, these companies failed to inform
patients about risks and danger and failed to recall the technology before patients had
suffered immense damage. Both companies were sued and had to compensate the vic-
tims as well as pay large fines. Their reputations, as a consequence, suffered. This chapter
examines the laws of liability in light of these two cases and traces its evolution toward
harsh punitive actions and strict liability.

Part III: The Environment of Technology

Part III of the book highlights the way business organizations have responded to the
challenges of the following three global divisions: those between (i) young and old, (ii)
rich and poor, and (iii) energy scarcity and abundance. These fractures, among the most
important features of the business environment, affect whether there will be global secu-
rity, inequality, and sustainability. They provide opportunities for technologies and com-
panies as well as presenting threats.
The topics discussed in Chapter 6 are “Old, Young, and Global Security.” The rise of the
elderly has led to efforts to find cures for Alzheimer’s and other diseases, to reverse aging,
and to improve quality of life during aging. A changing economy and changing job mar-
kets have made technology important for youth. They have given rise to a significant

Introduction 5
population of people who do not work in traditional jobs; they work from home and
do freelance jobs. Conversely, the disillusion found among many young people in the
world who do not have meaningful work has contributed to global violence and terror.
It has stimulated companies that have developed counterterror methods that can assist
in preventing the bloodshed.
Chapter 7, “Rich, Poor, and Global Inequality,” discusses the technological opportunities
that have been opened up at the top and at the bottom of the pyramid. Global inequal-
ity also has produced opportunities for companies. On the one hand, there are end-
less opportunities to develop technologies that serve the wealthy, protect their wealth,
and perpetuate their standing in society. On the other hand, there are opportunities to
develop technologies to uplift the poor by providing them with better housing, more
drinkable water, enhanced access to health services, improved nutrition, employment,
and business opportunities. At the top, hedge funds have developed sophisticated algo-
rithms for trading that have enjoyed remarkable success but are only available to those
who are already wealthy. At the bottom, on the other hand, many companies, often in
collaboration with nonprofit organizations and governments, have heeded to call to
introduce products and technologies that can help the poor.
Chapter 8, “Abundance, Scarcity, and Global Sustainability,” considers the possibility of
energy abundance brought about by advances in both finite fossil fuels and renewable
energy as well as the issue of energy scarcity brought about by the failure to innovate in
these areas.5 It also considers in-between states in which the most dependable path to
the future relies on either fossil fuels or renewable fuels, to the exclusion of the other.
On the one hand, a review of technologies like fracking and unconventional methods
of oil exploration and development demonstrates the continued promise of fossil fuels.
On the other hand, major advances in energy efficiency, solar, wind, energy storage, and
biofuels are also considered.

Part IV: Coping with Technological Disruptions

The final Part of the book focuses on pairs of companies operating in overlapping busi-
ness segments that are confronted by technological disruptions. It discusses how they
have coped and the challenges they still face in dealing with the threats to their businesses.
These chapters are presented as open-ended case studies that are meant for considering
what these firms should do next. Most of these companies were pioneers in the IT revolu-
tion. They were early movers who did well with innovations they introduced or helped
to introduce, like the microprocessor, the PC, Internet commerce, the sale of electron-
ics, and the creation of content that can be viewed on the Internet. This Part includes
chapters on Intel and AMD, Dell and Acer, Barnes & Noble and Amazon, Best Buy and
Charles Schwab, and Disney and Time Warner.

6 The Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment

A second wave in the IT revolution has gained momentum, threatening the business
models that once made these firms very successful. This second phase is characterized
by growing digitization; mobility; the commoditizing of older technologies; a move
toward smartphones, tablets, and e-readers; increased reliance on the cloud; greater
competition between Internet and brick and mortar sales venues; and streaming. These
developments have led to the near-obsolescence of once-vibrant business segments like
PCs, bookselling, electronic showrooms, movies, and cable television. Given this disrup-
tion, how should companies cope? How should they adjust their business models to new
conditions they face, conditions brought about by these rapidly changing technologies?
Chapter 9, “Missing the Boat on Mobile: Intel and AMD,” covers the consequences of
these companies not responding to the challenge of mobile technologies. It asks the ques-
tion of where they should turn to next.
Chapter 10, “From Mass Customizing to Mass Commodity: Dell and Acer,” deals with
the issue of the growing commoditization of PC sales, long the mainstay of these com-
panies’ business. What options do they now have?
Chapter 11, “Finding Growth and Profitability in Bookselling: Barnes & Noble and Ama-
zon,” explores the issue of declining profits and revenue in bookselling in light of the rise
of digital devices like e-readers and changes in people’s reading habits and bookselling
practices. If these firms remain committed to bookselling, how can they innovate to stay
profitable?
Chapter 12, “Escaping the Middle: Best Buy and Charles Schwab,” delves into the uncom-
fortable positions in which Best Buy and Charles Schwab find themselves—not leaders
in the high end of their businesses, a role other firms like Apple and Morgan Stanley
have seized, yet also not leaders in the low end, a role they deliberately ceded to the likes
of Walmart and e*Trade. How can they survive the dual threat of technological leaders
above and below them?
Chapter 13, “Content for a New Age: Disney and Time Warner,” deals with the conse-
quences of the decline of cable TV channels, the most profitable divisions of Disney and
Time Warner, in the face of increased preference for Internet streaming services, such
as Netflix and Amazon Prime. How do these companies deal with this technological
disruption?
In sum, this book takes up some of the most important problems in the future of technol-
ogy management and business environment and provides important lessons on innova-
tion, disruption, and strategy execution.

Introduction 7
Endnotes
1. Nikolaĭ Kondratiev, The Long Wave Cycle. New York: Richardson & Snyder, 1984.
2. Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. New York and Lon-
don: Harper & Brothers Publishers, 1947.
3. Daniel Bell, The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting.
New York: Basic Books, 1999.
4. Alfred Marcus, Strategic Foresight: A New Look at Scenarios. New York: Palgrave
MacMillan, 2009.
5. Alfred Marcus, Innovations in Sustainability: Fuel and Food. Cambridge, UK:
Cambridge University Press, 2015.

8 The Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment

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 1
Technological Disruptions

T
echnological changes, according to Schumpeter, are like a series of explosions
with innovations concentrating in specific sectors, or leading-edge industries
that provide the momentum for future prosperity replacing each other in a reg-
ular, periodic way. Leading sectors propel economies forward; without them, economic
growth would not be possible. According to Schumpeter, the process of technological
transformation should be called “creative destruction,”1 given that a set of superior tech-
nologies supplants inferior technologies and becomes dominant at their expense. The
lagging sectors fall behind, and their time passes, while the new set of technologies surge
ahead and, according to Schumpeter, spur economic renewal and revitalization.
In the world’s industrial nations, a dynamic growth phase existed after the Second World
War. However, by the start of 1970s, global growth slipped. The post-World War II
boom in advanced industrial nations lost momentum. The need existed for a new set of
advanced technologies.

The Powers of the Mind

Sociologist Daniel Bell has described the shift away from the technologies that dominated
the postwar boom as post-industrialism. In this period, theoretical knowledge formed
the source of innovation, while technically trained professionals became dominant and
technological assessment played a leading role.
The powers of the mind gained ascendance over the brute force of things. Previously,
economic activity was centered on physical labor, natural resources, and capital. Now,
wealth in the form of physical resources is losing ground to wealth in the form of ideas.
An example is the microchip, the key element in the emergence of information technol-
ogy (IT); (see Chapter 9, “Missing the Boat on Mobile Technology: Intel and AMD”),
where material costs constituted just 2 percent of production costs and most of the value
came from the ideas for the design of the microchips. Other examples include medical

11
technologies, genetics, alternative energy, artificial intelligence, material sciences, and
nanotechnology. The main value is not in the materials, but in the ideas. This chapter
briefly discusses the promise of these technologies, whereas the next chapter considers
concrete examples of efforts to commercialize such technologies and the problems they
have encountered.

Information Technology (IT)

The IT revolution has touched nearly every human endeavor. Internet usage has grown
183 percent since 2000 (see Exhibit 1.1). The number of Internet users increased tenfold
from 1999 to 2013. In 2015, around 40 percent of the world’s population had an Internet
connection, and a wireless hotspot existed for each 150 persons.

40.00%

35.00%

30.00%

25.00%

20.00%

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Exhibit 1.1 Growth in Percentage of People in the World Who Regularly Use the Internet
Data source: http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users/

The Internet changes the ways in which people socialize, relate, and do business. It has
created virtual communities, via email, Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, and others. It has
made telecommuting possible. Shopping, entertainment, and education are being done
from people’s homes. Opportunities exist for increased involvement in politics. Online
dating is common. Interactive medicine has become common as well.
Smartphones are ubiquitous. In just one device, they integrate phones, personal data
assistants, MP3 players, cameras, voice recorders, watches, calculators, and other

12 The Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment

functions. Computer use is expanding to many areas in which human intelligence pre-
viously was applied, such as driverless cars and automated medical procedures.
Thanks to enhanced computer power and performance, it has become possible to auto-
mate increasingly complex tasks. Manufacturing efficiencies are being accelerated as
result of computerized controls. Although software that runs computers is not as cre-
ative as human beings, its reliability is greater and less mistake prone, which makes it
preferred for routine tasks. The use of computers is growing as the programs that run
them are becoming better at learning, adapting, and self-correcting.
The full promise of the IT revolution, however, has not yet been tapped. Among the
trends that continue to be important are these:
■ The ongoing digitization of audio, video, and film
■ The spread of fiber optics that carry television, telephone, radio, and computer
signals simultaneously and make rapid communications possible
■ Expansion in the use of optical memory systems, such as disks, film, and barcodes
■ Parallel processing, which permits many computers to be used simultaneously
■ The evolution of chip technologies, which opens up the possibility for even more
accelerated and powerful computers
It is not obvious which firms will take advantage of these opportunities. Their societal
impact is considered in Chapter 6, “Old, Young, and Global Security,” which covers
the role they play in the fight against terror and in Chapter 7, “Rich, Poor, and Global
Inequality,” which portrays the role they play in perpetuating the world’s wealth gaps.
Chapter 2, “Commercialization’s Obstacles,” discusses the case of Xerox, which failed to
exploit technologies it had developed and missed out on the promise of the IT revolu-
tion. There are other examples that could be cited. Kodak, for instance, missed out on the
digital revolution despite accumulating the technical skills to be a part of it. The inability
of established businesses to take advantage of technologies they have mastered and know
are coming is considered in Chapter 2.

Medical Technologies
Medical technology includes the procedures and equipment by which medical care
is delivered. It has affected many medical fields. A prime example is the treatment of
heart disease. Each decade from the 1970s to the present has seen successive treatment
improvements:

Chapter 1 Technological Disruptions 13

 ■ The 1970s introduced cardiac care units, lidocaine for irregular heartbeat, beta-
blockers for lowering blood pressure, clot busters, and coronary artery bypass
surgery.
■ In the 1980s, there was increased use of blood-thinning agents and minimally
invasive surgery.
■ The 1990s saw drugs that were effective in inhibiting the formation of clots,
stents to keep vessels open, and the implantation of defibrillators for irregular
heartbeats.
■ Since then, better tests for diagnosis are available, drug-eluting stents are in com-
mon use, and new drug strategies are centered on cholesterol-lowering statins.

Many doctors have replaced their stethoscopes with inexpensive, hand-held ultrasound
scanners to detect heart problems. In the past, emergency room doctors had trouble
distinguishing between bouts of heart failure and pneumonia. Now they have a blood
test for B-type Natriuretic Peptide (BNP) secreted by a weakened heart muscle, which
enables them to distinguish between these maladies. Although heart disease remains the
leading cause of death in the U.S., overall mortality rates have fallen by almost half.
Another example of advances in technology that have changed outcomes is the treatment
of preterm babies. In the 1950s, little could be done for them. However, by 1990, there
were special ventilators, artificial pulmonary surfactants, and new methods of intensive
care, which helped decrease mortality to a third of 1950s levels.
Surgery, too, has seen tremendous improvements. Advances have been made in surgical
procedures such as angioplasty and in hip and joint replacements. Microwave scalpels
equipped with lasers are replacing metal scalpels. Less invasive laparoscopic techniques
have become common. Devices like MRIs and CT scanners are used commonly today.
Enhanced electronic medical records systems now exist, facilitating the recording and
transfer of information.
For humans with severed bones and defective hearts and lungs, bioelectricity has the
potential to speed healing rates. Nerves, muscles, and glands can be stimulated to pro-
mote, repair, and restore healthy functioning, and the technique can be used as an alter-
native to addictive painkillers.
On the horizon are devices to provide individuals with instant health information and
allow them to continuously monitor their health status. Blood sugar can be checked,
sleep patterns analyzed, and people empowered with the tools to personalize their treat-
ments and behavior on a real-time basis. Despite the advances in technology, their spread
is often halted and takes longer than expected. Chapter 7 discusses the potential for

14 The Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment

finding a cure for Alzheimer’s and reversing aging. The next chapter shows how hard it
is to fully commercialize some of these technologies. Not all innovations are instanta-
neously and fully adopted, as illustrated by the story of cochlear implants.

Genetics
Genetic technology refers to efforts to understand gene expression, take advantage of
genetic variation, and modify and transfer genes. Passed from one generation to another
and found in all living organisms, genes are the coded instructions that organisms use to
make proteins, which are the structures of all living things and which perform the func-
tions that make life possible.
The genetic code of living organisms has been mapped for ongoing gene restructur-
ing and remodeling. Genomics and molecular biology are laying the foundation for
many advances. The integrated use of genetic diagnostics and treatment can help guide
therapy. For example, diabetics who have problems making and secreting insulin can be
distinguished from diabetics who react poorly to insulin and can be given custom treat-
ments. Identifying genes and their functions can lead to the more efficient breeding of
plants and animals, such as marker-assisted breeding, as the identification of desirable
trait markers in genes speeds the selection process.
As scientists map the genome, they can discover and isolate disease-causing genes and
identify treatments for inherited diseases like Alzheimer’s and muscular dystrophy. It
also gives them the ability to both predict diseases and create the treatments to fight
them.
The genetic code also can be mapped to improve existing crops and create new ones. Sci-
entists have developed seeds that resist pests and increase the nutrient content of foods,
making them better for human and animal consumption. There are nearly 50,000 genes
in a grain of rice. With this knowledge, scientists are trying to alter the nature of the rice
so that it will be less sensitive to drought and disease. Using their knowledge of genetics,
they can breed insects that attack the rice’s main predators. Genetic technology has the
promise to better feed the world’s population.
Agricultural biotechnology may also be used to find ways to convert plant material into
energy. Scientists are working on biogenetic material that can consume carbon dioxide.
However, genetic technology is also controversial, and in some quarters it is met with
stiff resistance that has slowed the pace of adoption. The case of Monsanto discussed in
the next chapter illustrates this point. The dangers of technology and the ways societies
and companies have evolved to manage these dangers are the main topic of Chapters 4
and 5.

Chapter 1 Technological Disruptions 15

Alternative Energy
Energy efficiency exists along with renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and bio-
mass. By themselves and in combination with fuel cells, energy storage, geothermal
energy, and nuclear energy, these renewal energy sources provide alternatives to fossil
fuels like oil, coal, and natural gas. They address concerns spurred by fossil fuel use, such
as the buildup of climate-changing gases in the atmosphere, the depletion of fossil fuel
supply, and the vulnerability of nations that use fossil fuels because of security issues.2
There have been many advances in energy efficiency. Better software and computing
technologies have improved the monitoring and control of energy use. LED lighting,
which requires less energy use and is longer lasting than conventional incandescent and
fluorescent lighting, has been developed. Superconductors carry and transfer electricity
more efficiently and with fewer losses. They make it possible to build magnetic levita-
tion trains and faster computer circuits that run on less energy, as well as more energy
efficient advanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines.
Wind and solar power have become far less expensive than they once were. In many parts
of the world, their costs are equal to, or lower than, other forms of electricity generation.
Solar energy cells have been long available in pocket calculators and remote power appli-
cations. Though solar made up less than one percent of the electricity market in 2015, the
International Energy Agency has projected it will be the world’s most important source
of energy by 2050.3
Lithium-ion batteries are current leaders in energy storage and are used across many
applications from laptops to mobile phones to electric vehicles. With mass production,
their price is likely to keep declining. Even with these advances, there have been struggles
to commercialize alternative energy. In the next chapter, the effort to make energy-effi-
cient, low-priced electric vehicles widely available is discussed, and Chapter 8 is devoted
to the commercialization of renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies.

Artificial Intelligence, Material Sciences, and

Nanotechnology
Working in tandem with the technologies previously mentioned are artificial intelli-
gence, material sciences, and nanotechnology. Artificial intelligence has moved into
many areas where human intelligence formerly was applied. Robots, now found in facto-
ries and homes alike, rely on a form of artificial intelligence and perform many complex,
nonrepetitive tasks that humans once carried out.

16 The Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment

In the material sciences, new materials are being constructed molecule by molecule and
atom by atom using supercomputers in their design. These materials are lighter, stron-
ger, and more resistant to heat than older materials. Many have found their way into
automobiles, trucks, airplanes, and ships and made them more energy efficient. Automo-
biles use high-tech ceramics that are resistant to corrosion, wear, and high temperatures
and make the engines leaner running. Lightweight and noncorrosive fiber-reinforced
composites, which are stronger than steel, are found in buildings, bridges, and aircraft.
New polymers are being created that will be used in products from garbage bags to tanks,
from ball bearings and batteries to running shoes. Tailor-made enzymes for industrial
use also are being produced that can assist in converting plant material into fuel. Nano-
technology holds out the promise for additional new materials (see Exhibit 1.2).

Exhibit 1.2 Applications of Nano-Technology

Information Technology Advanced Chemicals
Photolithography, electronics, and opto-electronics Catalysts
Quantum computing and telecommunications Membranes and filtration
Medical Coatings and paints
Detection, analysis, and discovery Abrasives and lubricants
Drug delivery Composites and structural materials
Prosthetics antimicrobial Aerospace and Defense
Antiviral and antifungal agents Weapons
Alternative Energy and Automotive Surveillance
Fuel cells Smart uniforms
Solar power Life support
Rechargeable batteries (charged in under a minute)
Power transmission
Lighting and other forms of energy savings
Structural materials and coatings
Sensors
Displays
Catalytic converters and filters
Fuel
Electro-mechanical systems

Chapter 1 Technological Disruptions 17

The Challenge of Commercialization
The technologies described have great promise. Already they are causing disruption. The
next wave of innovation is giving birth to a post-industrial society that is less dependent
on materials and force of things and more dependent on ideas. Futurist Magazine annu-
ally makes forecasts4 about what is likely to take place next. Its forecasts have included
innovations in IT (a more intelligent cloud), medical technology (handheld breathalyzers
to diagnose disease), genetic technology (designer genes), alternative energy (cars that
produce, rather than consume, power), and artificial intelligence (robot caregivers). The
commercial appeal of these technologies surely is high, but they must overcome obstacles
to their commercialization. The slow and arduous path of their commercialization is the
subject of the next chapter.

Endnotes
1. Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. New York: Kessinger
Publishing, LLC, 2010.
2. Alfred Marcus, Innovations in Sustainability: Fuel and Food. Cambridge, UK:
Cambridge University Press, 2015.
3. International Energy Agency, “How solar energy could be the largest source of
electricity by mid-century.” International Energy Agency. Sept. 29, 2014. http://
www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2014/september/how-solar-
energy-could-be-the-largest-source-of-electricity-by-mid-century.html.
4. “Forecasts from The Futurist Magazine,” World Future Society, 2015, Web. http://
www.wfs.org/Forecasts_From_The_Futurist_Magazine.

18 The Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment

 Index

A agricultural biotechnology
Monsanto, 24-27
ABC, 236
competition from DuPont, 27
abundance. See global sustainability
environmentalists’ criticisms, 26-27
Acer
government restrictions, 26
acquisition of Gateway, 176-177
opposition, 25
decline of PC industry, 170
promised progress, 26
efforts at revitalization, 183-185
rapid U.S. market penetration,
free cloud computing service, 185 25-26
IoT (Internet of Things), 185 sustainability as corporate goal, 25
notebooks, 183 overview, 15
smartphones, 183-184 AI (artificial intelligence), 3, 16
financial performance (2015), 168-172 aircraft protection, 108
overview, 167-168 all-metal hip replacement design, 74-75
Achronix, 162 Altera, 162
Acumen Fund, 124 alternative energy, 3
Aducanumab, 92 cleaner energy
Advanced Bionics, 24 biofuels, 143-145
Advanced Technology Investment building energy, 136-138
Company, 158
energy storage, 142-143
aging, reversing, 93-95
industrial and commercial energy,
Bimagrumab, 95 138
Calico research venture, 95 progress and challenges, 135-136
Metformin, 44 solar power, 138-140
NAD (nicotinamide adenine wind power, 140-142
dinucleotide), 93-94
rapamycin, 94-95

251
 electric cars, 27-32 global antitrust litigation, 157
1990’s failures, 29 graphics and other products, 157
advantages, 28 memory, 152-153
affordability, 30-31 microprocessors, 153
battery subsidies, 29-30 speed and price wars, 154-155
hybrid successes, 29 sub-zero segment, 153-154
range limitations, 28 mobile revolution, 149-151
Tesla and Panasonic, 30 computer company finances (2015),
overview, 16 151
Alzheimer’s, treatments for, 91-92 income, revenue, and market cap in
computer industry (2015), 150
Amazon, 50, 217
revenue growth in computer
bookselling market
industry (2015), 151
digital devices, 202
overview, 149
leisure time choices, 201
search for new markets, 158-164
reading habits, 201
ARM architecture, 159
sales trends, 200-201
field-programmable gate array
financial performance of major book- (FPGA) chips, 162
sellers (2015), 189
gaming, 159-160
fluid identity of, 195-196
Internet of Things (IoT), 162-163
history of, 191-194
mobile losses, 160
Kindle, 196
mobile market, 159
profit from cloud-based services,
new leadership at AMD, 160-161
197-198
risks, 164
relationship with publishers, 193-194,
202-205 smart glasses and augmented reality,
163-164
Big Five publishers, 203
terminology, 165
conflicts, 204-205
American Academy of Otolaryngology-
wholesalers, 203
Head and Neck Surgery, 22
AMD, mobile technology and
Ameritrade, 219
battles between Intel and AMD,
Amoco, 59
152-158
amorphous silicon, 139
AMD Hammer technology, 156-157
Amyris, 144
branching out by Intel, 155-156
“animal spirits,” 37
divesting manufacturing, 158
antitrust litigation (AMD), 157

252 Index
AOL-Time Warner merger, 237 relationship with publishers, 202-205
AppAssure Software, 181 Big Five publishers, 203
Apple, 179, 222 wholesalers, 203
applying scenario logic to technology sinking profits, 195
commercialization, 45 split of, 198-200
Aquion Energy, 142 college division, 199-200
ARM architecture, 159 Nook, 198-199
ARM Holdings, 150 superstore concept, 189-191
artificial intelligence, 3, 16 BarnesAndNoble.com website, 194
ASR (Articular Surface Replacement) Barrett, Craig, 155
system. See hip replacements (Johnson
Basis, 93
& Johnson)
Basis Science, 163
assessment of risk, 63
batteries, 142-143
assumption of risk, 78
electric car batteries
ATI Technologies, 157
battery subsidies, 29-30
augmented reality, 163-164
Panasonic, 30
Ayerst Laboratories, 94
flow batteries, 142-143
Graphene Energy, 143
B lead-acid batteries, 142
B. Dalton, 189 lithium-ion batteries, 16, 142
Babbage, Charles, 40 nickel-based aqueous batteries, 142
Baker & Taylor, 203 nickel-cadmium batteries, 142
Bapineuzumab, 91 nickel-metal hydride batteries, 142
Barnes & Noble sodium-nickel-chloride batteries, 142
bookselling market vanadium flow batteries, 142
digital devices, 202 zinc-bromide flow batteries, 142
leisure time choices, 201 Bayer Crop-Science, 124
reading habits, 201 Baysean judgement, 41
sales trends, 200-201 Bell, Daniel, 2, 11
financial performance of major book- Bertelsmann, 204
sellers (2015), 189 Best Buy
focus on books, 194-195 Best Buy Mobile, 217
history of, 189-191 Best Buy Video Sharing, 217

Index 253
 comeback plans, 220-222 Bloom Energy, 138
cost savings and product innovation, BNP (B-type Natriuretic Peptide), test
221-222 for, 14
improving e-commerce platform, Boeing, 49
220-221 Boire, Ron, 199
reverse showrooming, 221 bookselling
shipping from stores, 220 Amazon
evolution of, 210-214 fluid identity of, 195-196
1983-1989, 211 history of, 191-194
1990-2001, 211-212 Kindle, 196
2002-2007, 212-214 profit from cloud-based services,
aftermath of financial meltdown, 197-198
214 third-party selling, 193-194
financial performance (2015), 209 Barnes & Noble
new challenges, 217-218 focus on books, 194-195
competition in consumer electronics, history of, 189-191
217
sinking profits, 195
online, 217-218
split of, 198-200
showrooming, 218
superstore concept, 189-191
between-country gaps (wealth
financial performance of major book-
distribution), 113-115
sellers (2015), 189
Bewkes, Jeff, 240, 243
market factors
Bezos, Jeff, 191, 205
digital devices, 202
Bhopal, India accident. See Union Car-
leisure time choices, 201
bide plant explosion (Bhopal, India)
reading habits, 201
Big Five publishers, 203
sales trends, 200-201
Bimagrumab, 95
publishers, 202-205
bioelectricity, 14
Big Five publishers, 203
biofuels, 143-145
spat with Amazon, 204-205
Biogen, 92
wholesalers, 203
biometrics, 107
Borders, 190-191, 195
Biostem, 22
bottom of income pyramid, technology
Blackstone Group, 182
at, 121-126
Blockbuster, 233
benefits and challenges, 121-122
blocking plague in brain, 91-92
energy, 125-126

254 Index
 health services, 124 battery subsidies, 29-30
nutrition and crop protection, 124-125 hybrid successes, 29
potable water, 123-124 range limitations, 28
telecommunications, 122-123 Tesla and Panasonic, 30
BP (British Petroleum), 125 Carville, James, 106
Deepwater Horizon oil spill, 59-61 Case, Steve, 237, 239
branching out by Intel, 155-156 “a category of one” (Charles Schwab),
British Petroleum. See BP (British 215-216
Petroleum) CBS, 204, 233, 239
Brown, Peter, 120 CDC (Centers for Disease Control and
Bryant, Bear, 240 Prevention), 123
B-type Natriuretic Peptide (BNP), test Cdte (cadmium tullride), 139
for, 14 Celeron processor, 153
Build Your Own Cloud (Acer), 185 central processing units (CPUs), 165
building energy, 136-138 Centrino, 156
Business Environmental Leadership Charles Schwab
Council, 59 competition among discount brokers,
218-219
C enhancement of Internet platform,
222-224
cable companies. See entertainment
ranking the platforms, 223
companies
robo-advisor, 223-224
cable TV, abandonment by younger
viewers, 243-245 evolution of, 214-217
cadmium tullride (Cdte), 139 affluent of the future, 216
Calico research venture, 95 “a category of one”, 215-216
Capital Cities, merger with Disney, discounting, 214-215
235-236 following customers, 216-217
Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy high net worth clients, 215
(Schumpeter), 1 financial performance (2015), 209-210
Carlson Companies, 220 Chen, Jason, 168
cars, electric, 27-32 Chiesi Pharmaceuticals, 92
1990’s failures, 29 chip technologies, 13
advantages, 28 Chromebook (Acer), 183
affordability, 30-31 CIA post-9/11 scenarios, 99-101

Index 255
Cialdini, Robert, 137 multiple developmental paths, 22
CIGS (copper indium gallium selenide), new entrants to industry, 24
139 private firms’ failure to cooperate, 22
Circuit City, 214 professional endorsements, 22-23
CIS (copper indium selenide), 139 safety and efficacy concerns, 23-24
Cisco, 181 withdrawal of original companies, 24
classic tort law, 78 Cochlear Limited, 24
cleaner energy, 135-145 cognitive limits
biofuels, 143-145 experts’ cognitive limits, 64
building energy, 136-138 individual cognitive limits, 64
energy storage, 142-143 organizations’ cognitive limits, 64-65
industrial and commercial energy, 138 Cohen, Stephen, 107
progress and challenges, 135-136 Coleman, Ed, 176
solar power, 138-140 college division of Barnes & Noble,
wind power, 140-142 199-200
Clerity Solutions, 181 The Columbia History of the World
clock rate, 165 (Garrity), 194
cloud-based services Columbia Pictures, 233
Acer, 185 combating terror, 106-108
Amazon, 197-198 aircraft protection, 108
CNN, 242 biometrics, 107
Coca-Cola Bottling Co., 80 explosives-detection technology, 108
cochlear implants network-centric operations, 107
auxiliary services, 24 nonlethal weapons, 107-108
barriers to commercialization, 20-21 Palantir Technologies, 106-107
breakthroughs in other disciplines, 21 Comcast, 229, 234
championing of, 22 comeback plans
costs, 23 Acer, 183-185
early research, 21 free cloud computing service, 185
FDA approval, 23 IOT (Internet of Things), 185
lack of enthusiasm from user notebooks, 183
community, 23 smartphones, 183-184

256 Index
 Best Buy, 220-222 private firms’ failure to cooperate,
cost savings and product innovation, 22
221-222 professional endorsements, 22-23
improving e-commerce platform, safety and efficacy concerns, 23-24
220-221 withdrawal of original companies,
reverse showrooming, 221 24
shipping from stores, 220 electric cars, 27-32
Dell, 177-183 advantages of, 28
becoming a private company, affordability, 30-31
182-183 battery subsidies, 29-30
enterprise market and acquisitions, hybrid successes, 29
181-182
1990’s failures, 29
profit margins and revenue growth
range limitations, 28
changes for major computer
vendors, 179-180 Tesla and Panasonic, 30
revenue and employees of major weak plug-in sales, 29
computer vendors, 177-179 Monsanto case study, 24-27
comedies, 44 competition from DuPont, 27
The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A environmentalists’ criticisms, 26-27
Venture in Social Forecasting (Bell), 2 government restrictions, 26
commercial energy efficiency, 138 opposition, 25
commercialization, 19 promised progress, 26
challenge of, 18 rapid U.S. market penetration,
cochlear implants, 20-24 25-26
auxiliary services, 24 sustainability as corporate goal, 25
barriers to commercialization, 20-21 obstacles to
breakthroughs in other disciplines, inclination to undertake safe
21 projects, 36
championing of, 22 insufficient project management,
costs, 23 35-36
early research, 21 market needs, 36-37
FDA approval, 23 uncertain government support,
34-35
lack of enthusiasm from user
community, 23 persistence and determination, 37
multiple developmental paths, 22 setbacks, 33-34
new entrants to industry, 24 Xerox case study, 19-20, 32-33

Index 257
committing with fallbacks, 49-50 copper indium selenide (CIS), 139
commoditization Coskata, 144
Acer case study cost of cochlear implants, 23
Acer’s acquisition of Gateway, Cowherd, Colin, 242
176-177 CPU clock speed, 165
decline in PC industry, 170 CPUs (central processing units), 165
efforts at revitalization, 183-185 Credant Technologies, 181
financial performance for 2015, criminal charges against Merck, 73
168-172
crop protection, 124-125
overview, 167-168
crystalline silicon (c-Si) cells, 139
Dell case study
c-Si (thick-film crystalline silicon) cells,
decline in PC industry, 170 139
financial performance 2009-2013, Cycle of Fear post-9/11 scenario, 99-101
168-172
history and growth of, 170-171
D
mass customization and direct
model, 171-173 dangerous technologies, managing. See
overview, 167-168 also liability law
plans for recovery, 177-183 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, 59-61
resignation of Michael Dell, 174-176 overview, 55
sales and operating margins for Dell problems in managing inherently
and Gateway, 1994-1999, 173-174 dangerous technologies, 61-66
Compellent, 181 basics of risk assessment, 63
competition complexity, 61-62
among discount brokers, 218-219 experts’ cognitive limits, 64
in consumer electronics, 217 individual cognitive limits, 64
complexity, dangerous technologies inferences from animal studies to
and, 61-62 humans, 65-66
Composyt, 163 organizations’ cognitive limits,
64-65
computer power and performance, 13
quantifying value of human life, 65
Conoco, 27
tight coupling, 61-62
consumer electronics, competition in,
217. See also Best Buy Union Carbide plant explosion
(Bhopal, India), 55-58
copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS),
139 Daniels, Mitch, 59

258 Index
Davos post-9/11 scenario, 99-101 declining fertility, 88-89
Day, George, 43 economic impact, 90-91
DC Comics, 234 percentage of world population,
declining fertility, 88-89 87-88
Deepwater Horizon oil spill, 59-61 reversing aging, 93-95
delaying until clarity emerges, 49 technology to assist elderly, 91
delegators, 215 treatments for Alzheimer’s, 91-92
Dell overview, 87
decline of PC industry, 170 technology to combat terror, 106-108
financial performance (2015), 168-172 aircraft protection, 108
history and growth of, 170-171 biometrics, 107
mass customization and direct model, explosives-detection technology, 108
171-173 network-centric operations, 107
overview, 167-168 nonlethal weapons, 107-108
plans for recovery, 177-183 Palantir Technologies, 106-107
becoming a private company, young people, 96-108
182-183 diminishing youth bulges, 102-106
enterprise market and acquisitions, hope and disillusion, 96-97
181-182
meaningful work, 97-99
profit margins and revenue growth
post-9/11 scenarios, 99-101
changes for major computer
vendors, 179-180 DePuy, 73, 74
revenue and employees of major determination, commercialization and,
computer vendors, 177-179 37
resignation of Michael Dell, 174-176 digital devices, bookselling industry
and, 202
sales and operating margins for Dell
and Gateway, 1994-1999, 173-174 diminishing youth bulges, 102-106
Dell, Michael direct model (Dell), 171-173
founding of Dell, 167, 170 direct random access memory (DRAM),
165
plans for Dell’s recovery, 177-183
discount brokers, competition among,
resignation from Dell, 174-176
218-219. See also Charles Schwab
Delphi method, 40
discounting by Charles Schwab, 214-215
demographic transition, challenges of
Disney
elderly
ABC, 236

Index 259
 cable’s abandonment by young economic impact of elderly, 90-91
viewers, 244-245 Edison, Thomas, 40
Disney-Capital Cities merger, 235-236 8-through-64-bit architectures, 165
dominance and financial performance, Einstein, Albert, 40
241-243
Eisner, Michael, 235
cable channels, 241-242
Ekdahl, Andrew, 75
financial performance (2015), 241
Elan, 91
studios, 242-243
elderly
Iger era, 237
declining fertility, 88-89
Internet initiatives, 243-244
economic impact, 90-91
mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures,
percentage of world population, 87-88
232-235
reversing aging, 93-95
overview, 229-230
Bimagrumab, 95
vertical integration, 230
Calico research venture, 95
Disney, Roy, 236, 237
Metformin, 44
disruptions. See technological
disruptions NAD (nicotinamide adenine
dinucleotide), 93-94
distribution of wealth. See wealth
distribution rapamycin, 94-95
divesting manufacturing (AMD), 158 technology to assist elderly, 91
divestures by entertainment companies, treatments for Alzheimer’s, 91-92
232-235 electric cars, 27-32
DRAM (dynamic random access advantages, 28
memory), 152-153, 165 affordability, 30-31
DreamWorks, 237 battery subsidies, 29-30
DuPont, 27, 124 hybrid successes, 29
dynamic glass, 138 1990’s failures, 29
dynamic random access memory range limitations, 28
(DRAM), 152-153 Tesla and Panasonic, 30
Elgin, Suzette Haden, 194
E Eli Lilly, 92
E*Trade, 223 Elysium Health, 93-94
eASIC, 138 eMachines, 176
economic growth, technological changes Emerging Markets strategy (hedge
and, 1 funds), 118

260 Index
energy. See also batteries overview, 229-230
cleaner energy, 3, 135-145 streaming services, 244-245
biofuels, 143-145 Time Warner
building energy, 136-138 AOL-Time Warner merger, 237
energy storage, 142-143 cable holdings, 241-242
industrial and commercial energy, financial performance (2015), 241
138 HBO, 240
progress and challenges, 135-136 vertical integration, 231-232
solar power, 138-140 environmentalists’ criticisms of
wind power, 140-142 Monsanto, 26-27
energy storage, 142-143 Equity Market Neutral strategy (hedge
fossil fuels, 130-135 funds), 118
hydraulic fracking, 132-133 e-readers, 202
offshore recovery, 134-135 ESPN, 230, 240, 242
oil price declines, 130-132 ethanol, 143-145
tar sands, 133-134 Ethicon, 73
nuclear power, 129 Event-Driven strategy (hedge funds),
118
technology to benefit the poor,
125-126 everolimus, 95
Energy Policy Act, 35 evolution
entertainment companies of Amazon, 191-194
cable’s abandonment by young of Barnes & Noble, 189-191
viewers, 244-245 of Best Buy, 210-214
Disney 1983-1989, 211
ABC, 236 1990-2001, 211-212
Disney-Capital Cities merger, 2002-2007, 212-214
235-236 aftermath of financial meltdown,
dominance and financial 214
performance, 241-243 of Charles Schwab, 214-217
financial performance (2015), 241 affluent of the future, 216
Iger era, 237 “a category of one,” 215-216
vertical integration, 230 discounting, 214-215
Internet initiatives, 243-244 following customers, 216-217
mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures, high net worth clients, 215
232-235
of Dell, 170-171

Index 261
expert opinion fossil fuels, 130-135
managing uncertainty with, 41 hydraulic fracking, 132-133
uncertainty and, 40-41 offshore recovery, 134-135
experts’ cognitive limits, dangerous oil price declines, 130-132
technologies and, 64 tar sands, 133-134
explosion at Union Carbide plant FPGA (field-programmable gate array)
(Bhopal, India), 55-58 chips, 162
explosives-detection technology, 108 fracking, 132-133
Eyefluence, 163 From the Earth to the Moon, 240
Fujitsu, 152-153, 156
F
Fabricant, Daniel, 94 G
fallbacks, committing with, 49-50 Gale Technologies, 181
fault-based liability, movement away gallium nitride (GaN), 138
from, 80
gambling on most probable outcome,
FDA 47-48
approval of cochlear implants, 23 game theory, 32-33
investigation of Johnson & Johnson gaming market, 159-160
hip replacements, 75
GaN (gallium nitride), 138
Vioxx warning, 71
Garrity, John, 194
FedEx, 50
Gateway
fertility rates, 88-89
Acer’s acquisition of, 176-177
fiber optics, 13
sales and operating margins for Dell
field-programmable gate array (FPGA) and Gateway, 1994-1999, 173-174
chips, 162
GE Healthcare, 124
Fitzgerald, Garret, 70
Geek Squad, 213
five-forces-plus model, 42
General Motors, 27, 29
Fixed Income Arbitrage strategy (hedge
genetic technology, 15
funds), 118
Monsanto case study, 24-27
flash memory, 165
competition from DuPont, 27
flow batteries, 142-143
environmentalists’ criticisms, 26-27
Fortune, 232
government restrictions, 26
opposition, 25

262 Index
 promised progress, 26 Global Macro strategy (hedge funds),
rapid U.S. market penetration, 118
25-26 global security, demography and
sustainability as corporate goal, 25 elderly
genetics, 2 declining fertility, 88-89
genome, mapping of, 15 economic impact, 90-91
The Gentle Art of Verbal Self-Defense percentage of world population,
(Elgin), 194 87-88
Gettings, Nathan, 107 reversing aging, 93-95
Gevo, 144 technology to assist elderly, 91
Gini index, 112 treatments for Alzheimer’s, 91-92
glass, dynamic, 138 overview, 87
global antitrust litigation (AMD), 157 technology to combat terror, 106-108
Global Climate Coalition, 59 aircraft protection, 108
global inequality biometrics, 107
within-country gaps, 112 explosives-detection technology, 108
between-country gaps, 112-113 network-centric operations, 107
overview, 111 nonlethal weapons, 107-108
rise of neoliberalism, 115-116 Palantir Technologies, 106-107
technology at bottom of income young people, 96-108
pyramid, 121-126 diminishing youth bulges, 102-106
benefits and challenges, 121-122 hope and disillusion, 96-97
critiques, 125-126 meaningful work, 97-99
energy, 125 post-9/11 scenarios, 99-101
health services, 124 global sustainability
nutrition and crop protection, cleaner energy, 135-145
124-125
biofuels, 143-145
potable water, 123-124
building energy, 136-138
telecommunications, 122-123
energy storage, 142-143
technology at top of income pyramid,
industrial and commercial energy,
117-121
138
hedge funds, 118-121
progress and challenges, 135-136
sophisticated models, 117
solar power, 138-140
U.S. wealth gap, 113-115
wind power, 140-142

Index 263
 fossil fuels, 130-135 hedging uncertainty
hydraulic fracking, 132-133 committing with fallbacks, 49-50
offshore recovery, 134-135 delaying until clarity emerges, 49
oil price declines, 130-132 expert opinion, 40-41
tar sands, 133-134 industry analysis, 42
Monsanto, 25 overview, 39
overview, 129-130 robust strategies, 48-49
GlobalFoundries, 158 scenarios, 42-46
Gold, Stanley, 237 applying scenario logic to technology
government support, commercializa- commercialization, 45
tion and, 34-35 gambling on most probable
Graham, David, 72 outcome, 47-48
Grameen, 122-123 narrative details, 44
Graphene Energy, 143 romances, tragedies, and comedies,
44
Grassley, Charles, 72
strategic adjustments, 46
Guarente, Leonard, 93
surprises, 43
taking notice of periphery, 43-44
H
shaping the future, 50
Hachette, 204 trends, 40
Halliburton, 60 high net worth clients of Charles
Hammer technology (AMD), 156-157 Schwab, 215
Hand, Learned, 79 hip replacements (Johnson & Johnson),
Hanks, Tom, 240 73-77
HarperCollins, 204 acquisition of DePuy, 74
HBO, 240 all-metal replacement design, 74-75
HBO NOW, 243 FDA investigations, 75
health services, technology to benefit lawsuits against Johnson & Johnson,
the poor, 124 76
heart disease, treatments for, 13-14 prior reputation of Johnson &
Johnson, 74
hedge funds, 118-121
reimbursement plan, 76-77
Renaissance Technologies (RenTech),
120-121 voluntary recall, 75-76
standards for qualified purchasers, 119
trading strategies, 118

264 Index
history ideas, power of
of Amazon, 191-194 alternative energy, 16
of Barnes & Noble, 189-191 artificial intelligence, 16
of Best Buy, 210-214 genetic technology, 15
1983-1989, 211 IT (information technology), 12-13
1990-2001, 211-212 material sciences, 16-17
2002-2007, 212-214 medical technologies, 13-15
aftermath of financial meltdown, nanotechnology, 16-17
214 IEA (International Energy Agency),
of Charles Schwab, 214-217 Iger, Robert, 237, 243
affluent of the future, 216 IISC (Indian Institute of Science), 125
“a category of one”, 215-216 inclination to undertake safe projects,
discounting, 214-215 36
following customers, 216-217 income distribution. See wealth
high net worth clients, 215 distribution
of Dell, 170-171 Indian Institute of Science (IISC), 125
of technological changes, 1 individual cognitive limits, dangerous
technologies and, 64
Hitachi, 152
industrial and commercial energy, 138
HLI Lifecare LifeSpring, 124
industry analysis, managing uncertainty
Honda, 27, 29
with, 42
House, William, 22
inferences from animal studies to
HP, 181 humans, 65-66
Hubbert, M. King, 130 information revolution, 2
Hulu, 237 information technology (IT), 12-13
human life, value of, 65 Ingram, 203
Huseby, Michael, 198, 199 innovation
Husk Power Systems, 125 theoretical knowledge as source of
hydraulic fracking, 132-133 innovation, 11-12
Hyundai, 152 waves of, 1
Inouye, Wayne, 176
I Institutional Intelligent Portfolios
(Charles Schwab), 223-224
IBM, 97
Icahn, Carl, 182, 239

Index 265
Intel, mobile technology and Internet platform (Charles Schwab),
battles between Intel and AMD, 222-224
152-158 ranking the platforms, 223
AMD Hammer technology, 156-157 robo-advisor, 223-224
branching out by Intel, 155-156 Internet use, 12
divesting manufacturing, 158 IoT (Internet of Things), 162-163, 185
global antitrust litigation, 157 iPad, 179
graphics and other products, 157 IT (information technology), 12-13
memory, 152-153
microprocessors, 153 J
speed and price wars, 154-155
J&J. See Johnson & Johnson (J&J)
sub-zero segment, 153-154
Jobs, Steve, 20, 156
mobile revolution, 149-151
Johnson & Johnson (J&J), 49
computer company finances (2015),
Bapineuzumab, 91
151
hip replacement components, 73-77
income, revenue, and market cap in
computer industry (2015), 150 acquisition of DePuy, 74
revenue growth in computer all-metal replacement design, 74-75
industry (2015), 151 FDA investigations, 75
overview, 149 lawsuits against Johnson & Johnson,
search for new markets, 158-164 76
ARM architecture, 159 prior reputation of Johnson & John-
son, 74
field-programmable gate array
(FPGA) chips, 162 reimbursement plan, 76-77
gaming, 159-160 voluntary recall, 75-76
Internet of Things (IoT), 162-163 Joly, Hubert, 220
mobile, 159 The Junction Boys, 240
mobile losses, 160
risks, 164 K
smart glasses and augmented reality, KACE Networks, 181
163-164
Kandel, Eric, 94
terminology, 165
Karp, Alex, 107
International Energy Agency (IEA),
Karplus, Martin, 94
Internet of Things (IoT), 162-163, 185
Katzenbert, Jeffrey, 235, 237

266 Index
Kindle, 196 LED lights, 137
Kior, 143-144 LEED (Leadership in Energy &
Kiva robots, 97 Environmental Design) program, 137
Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byer, 191 leisure time choices, bookselling
industry and, 201
Knight, Bobby, 240
Lemoptix, 163
Kodak, 13, 49
Lenovo, 169
Kondratiev, Nikolai, 1
leveraged buyout (LBO), 182
Krzanich, Brian, 160
Levin, Jerry, 237
Kyoto Protocol, 35
LG Chem, 29
liability law, 69
L
assumption of risk, 78
law, liability law, 69 classic tort law, 78
assumption of risk, 78 evolution of, 77
classic tort law, 78 Johnson & Johnson hip replacement
evolution of, 77 case study, 73-77
Johnson & Johnson hip replacement acquisition of DePuy, 74
case study, 73-77 all-metal replacement design, 74-75
movement away from fault-based FDA investigations, 75
system, 80
lawsuits against Johnson & Johnson,
overview, 77 76
punitive action, 78 prior reputation of Johnson &
recent refinements in, 81 Johnson, 74
strict liability, 79-80 reimbursement plan, 76-77
Vioxx case study, 69-73 voluntary recall, 75-76
lawsuits movement away from fault-based
against Johnson & Johnson, 76 system, 80
MacPherson v. Buick Motor Co., 79 overview, 77
against Merck, 72-73 punitive action, 78
United States v. Carroll Towing Co., recent refinements in, 81
79 strict liability, 79-80
LBO (leveraged buyout), 182 Vioxx case study, 69-73
lead-acid batteries, 142 communication failures, 71
Leaf, 30 criminal charges against Merck, 73
criticism of Vioxx, 72

Index 267
 development of Vioxx, 70 overview, 39
early warnings, 70-71 scenarios, 42-46
FDA’s required warning, 71 trends, 40
lawsuits against Merck, 72-73 market needs, commercialization and,
reputation of Merck prior to Vioxx, 36-37
70 Marvel Entertainment, 234
voluntary recall, 72 Mascoma, 144
life expectancy, 88 mass customization (Dell), 171-173
LinkedIn, 50 material sciences, 3, 16-17
Liquid Leap wristband (Acer), 185 McAfee, 158
lithium-ion batteries, 16, 142 McNeill, 73
The Long Wave Cycle (Kondratiev), 1 Medallion Fund, 120-121
Lonsdale, Joe, 107 MED-E, 24
Lucas film, 234 medical technologies, 2, 13-15
Lynch, William, 198 Alzheimer’s, treatments for, 91-92
cochlear implants, 20-24
M auxiliary services, 24
barriers to commercialization, 20-21
Macmillan, 204
breakthroughs in other disciplines,
MacPherson v. Buick Motor Co., 79
21
Magnolia Design Centers, 222
championing of, 22
Maker Studios, 234
costs, 23
Malthus, Thomas, 1
early research, 21
managing
FDA approval, 23
danger. See also liability law
lack of enthusiasm from user
Deepwater Horizon oil spill, 59-61 community, 23
overview, 55 multiple developmental paths, 22
problems in managing inherently new entrants to industry, 24
dangerous technologies, 61-66
private firms’ failure to cooperate,
Union Carbide plant explosion 22
(Bhopal, India), 55-58
professional endorsements, 22-23
uncertainty
safety and efficacy concerns, 23-24
expert opinion, 40-41
withdrawal of original companies,
industry analysis, 42 24

268 Index
 hip replacements (Johnson & Mercer, Bob, 120
Johnson), 73-77 Merck
acquisition of DePuy, 74 treatments for Alzheimer’s, 92
all-metal replacement design, 74-75 Vioxx case study, 66, 69-73
FDA investigations, 75 communication failures, 71
lawsuits against Johnson & Johnson, criminal charges against Merck, 73
76
criticism of, 72
prior reputation of Johnson &
development of, 70
Johnson, 74
early warnings, 70-71
reimbursement plan, 76-77
FDA’s required warning, 71
voluntary recall, 75-76
lawsuits against Merck, 72-73
reversing aging, 93-95
reputation of Merck prior to Vioxx,
Bimagrumab, 95
70
Calico research venture, 95
voluntary recall, 72
Metformin, 44
mergers in entertainment industry,
NAD (nicotinamide adenine 232-235
dinucleotide), 93-94
Metformin, 44
rapamycin, 94-95
methyl isocyanate (MIC), 56. See also
Vioxx, 66, 69-73 explosion at Union Carbide plant
communication failures, 71 (Bhopal, India)
criminal charges against Merck, 73 Meyer, Dirk, 158
criticism of Vioxx, 72 Meyerson, Morton, 170
development of Vioxx, 70 microprocessors, 153, 165. See also
early warnings, 70-71 mobile technology
FDA’s required warning, 71 Microsemi, 162
lawsuits against Merck, 72-73 Microsoft, 222
reputation of Merck prior to Vioxx, Mill, John Stuart, 1
70 mind, power of. See ideas, power of
voluntary recall, 72 Mitsubishi, 152
memory mobile revolution, 149-151
battles between Intel and AMD, computer company finances (2015),
152-153 151
DRAM (dynamic random access income, revenue, and market cap in
memory), 165 computer industry (2015), 150
flash memory, 165 revenue growth in computer industry
(2015), 151

Index 269
mobile technology Model S (Tesla), 30-31
battles between Intel and AMD, models
152-158 five-forces-plus model, 42
AMD Hammer technology, 156-157 trading models, 117
branching out by Intel, 155-156 Monsanto, 15, 24-27
divesting manufacturing, 158 competition from DuPont, 27
global antitrust litigation, 157 environmentalists’ criticisms, 26-27
graphics and other products, 157 government restrictions, 26
memory, 152-153 opposition, 25
microprocessors, 153 promised progress, 26
speed and price wars, 154-155 rapid U.S. market penetration, 25-26
sub-zero segment, 153-154 sustainability as corporate goal, 25
mobile revolution, 149-151 Moore, Gordon, 153
computer company finances (2015), Moore’s Law, 153
151
Murdoch, Rupert, 204, 229
income, revenue, and market cap in
Musicland Group, 212
computer industry (2015), 150
revenue growth in computer
industry (2015), 151 N
overview, 149 NAD (nicotinamide adenine
search for new markets, 158-164 dinucleotide), 93-94
ARM architecture, 159 Nanotechnology, 3, 16-17
field-programmable gate array Napster, 217
(FPGA) chips, 162 narrative details, 44
gaming, 159-160 National Semiconductor, 153
Internet of Things (IoT), 162-163 NBC, 233
mobile, 159 NBCUniversal, 229, 234, 237
mobile losses, 160 NEC, 152, 153
new leadership at AMD, 160-161 neoliberalism, rise of, 115-116
risks, 164 Nest, 137
smart glasses and augmented reality, Netronome, 162
163-164
terminology, 165

270 Index
network-centric operations, 107 Office of Health Technology Assess-
Neurelec, 24 ment (OHTA), 23
New Caliphate post-9/11 scenario, offshore oil production, 134-135
99-101 OHTA (Office of Health Technology
New Deal policies, 116 Assessment), 23
News Corp, 229, 233, 234 oil. See fossil fuels
nickel-based aqueous batteries, 142 oil spills. See Deepwater Horizon oil
spill
nickel-cadmium batteries, 142
Oki, 152
nickel-metal hydride batteries, 142
Olbermann, Keith, 242
Nickelodeon, 242
online competition, Best Buy and,
nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide
217-218
(NAD), 93-94
Only the Paranoid Survive (Grove), 152
nonlethal weapons, 107-108
Opower, 137
Nook, 198-200
Opteron, 156-157
notebooks (Acer), 183
optical memory systems, 13
Noyce, Robert, 153
Orcam, 163
nuclear power, 129
organizations’ cognitive limits,
Nucleus, 22
dangerous technologies and, 64-65
Nurotron, 24
Otellini, Paul, 158, 160
nutrition, 124-125
NVidia, 161
P
O P&G (Proctor & Gamble), 123
Pacific Kitchen and Homes, 222
obstacles to commercialization. See also
Packard Bell, 176
commercialization
Palantir Technologies, 106-107
inclination to undertake safe projects,
36 Palo Alto Research Center (PARC), 19
insufficient project management, Panasonic, 30-32
35-36 parallel processing, 13
market needs, 36-37 Paramount, 233
uncertain government support, 34-35 PARC (Palo Alto Research Center), 19
Parsons, Dick, 237-240
Pax Americana post-9/11 scenario,
99-101

Index 271
Pearson, 204 organizations’ cognitive limits, 64-65
Penguin Random House, 204 quantifying value of human life, 65
Pentium clones, 153 tight coupling, 61-62
Pentium processors, 153 Proctor & Gamble (P&G), 123
periphery, taking notice of, 43-44 Product Value Lab (Acer), 176
Perot Systems, 181 production tax credit (PTC), 35
Perrow, Charles, 61 professional endorsements of cochlear
persistence, commercialization and, 37 implants, 22-23
Pfizer, 91 project management, commercializa-
tion and, 35-36
photovoltaics (PVs), 138-140
PTC (production tax credit), 35
Pinnacle Hip Replacement System. See
hip replacements (Johnson & Johnson) Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act
(PURPA), 35
Pittman, Robert, 237
publishers, 202-205
Pixar, 234-235, 237
Big Five publishers, 203
plague in brain, blocking, 91-92
spat with Amazon, 204-205
plans for recovery. See comeback plans
wholesalers, 203
Playmakers, 240
punitive action, 78
Porter, Michael, 42
PURPA (Public Utility Regulatory
post-9/11 scenarios, 99-101
Policies Act), 35
post-industrialism, 11-12
PVs (photovoltaics), 138-140
potable water, 123-124
powers of the mind. See ideas, power of
preterm babies, treatment of, 14
Q
price wars, Intel and AMD, 154-155 In-Q-Tel, 106
Prius, 29 quantifying value of human life, 65
probable outcome, gambling on, 47-48 Quantum Investment Fund, 118
problems in managing inherently
dangerous technologies, 61-66 R
basics of risk assessment, 63
Rand Corporation, 40
complexity, 61-62
ranking discount broker platforms, 223
experts’ cognitive limits, 64
rapamycin, 94-95
individual cognitive limits, 64
Read, Rory, 159, 160
inferences from animal studies to
humans, 65-66 reading habits, 201

272 Index
RealNetworks, 217 robust strategies, 48-49
recalls Rodman, Dennis, 240
Johnson & Johnson hip components, Rollins, Kevin, 174
75-76 romances, 44
Vioxx, 72 Ruiz, Hector, 152
Recon Instruments, 163
recovery plans. See comeback plans S
Redstone, Sumner, 239
safe projects, commercialization and, 36
reimbursement plan (J&J), 76-77
sales trends (bookselling), 200-201
Renaissance Technologies (RenTech),
120-121 Samsung, 152, 222
RenTech (Renaissance Technologies), Sanders, Jerry, 153
120-121 SanDisk, 217
reversing aging, 93-95 scarcity. See global sustainability
Bimagrumab, 95 scenarios
Calico research venture, 95 energy future scenarios, 130
Metformin, 44 managing uncertainty with, 42-46
NAD (nicotinamide adenine applying scenario logic to technology
dinucleotide), 93-94 commercialization, 45
rapamycin, 94-95 committing with fallbacks, 49-50
Rhapsody, 217 delaying until clarity emerges, 49
Ricardo, David, 1 narrative details, 44
Rice, Condoleezza, 106 robust strategies, 48-49
Riggio, Leonard, 189 romances, tragedies, and comedies,
Riggio, Steve, 195 44
rise of neoliberalism, 115-116 shaping the future, 50
risks strategic adjustments, 46
assessment of, 63 surprises, 43
assumption of, 78 taking notice of periphery, 43-44
Intel and AMD market risks, 164 post-9/11 scenarios, 99-101
Roadster, 30 Schoemaker, Paul, 43
Robertson, Julian, 118 Schumpeter, Joseph, 1
robo-advisor (Charles Schwab), 223-224 Scottrade, 219, 223

Index 273
Seagram, 233 Sinclair, David, 93
search for new markets, Intel and AMD, Sirtris Pharmaceuticals, 93
158-164 smart glasses, 163-164
ARM architecture, 159 smartphones, 12-13
field-programmable gate array Acer, 183-184
(FPGA) chips, 162
overview. See also mobile technology
gaming, 159-160
Smith, Adam, 1
Internet of Things (IoT), 162-163
sodium-nickel-chloride batteries, 142
mobile, 159
Solae, 124
mobile losses, 160
solanezumab, 92
new leadership at AMD, 160-161
solar power, 16, 138-140
risks, 164
solar thermal (ST) energy, 138-140
smart glasses and augmented reality,
Solyndra, 140
163-164
SonicWall, 181
A Season on the Brink, 240
Sony, 47, 233
Second Restatement of Torts, 80
The Sopranos, 240
SecureWorks, 181
Soros, George, 118
security. See global security,
demography and Sound of Music, 211
Sehgal, Suren, 94 Southwest Airlines, 50
self-directed investors, 215 SparkNotes, 194
senior citizens. See elderly split of Barnes & Noble, 198-200
setbacks to commercialization, 33-34 college division, 199-200
Sevin, 56 Nook, 198-200
Sex and the City, 240 Sports Illustrated, 232
shaping the future, 50 Spotify, 50
Shell, 42 Spring Networks, 137
Shih, Stan, 176, 185 ST (solar thermal) energy, 138-140
shipping from stores (Best Buy), 220 Steinhardt, Michael, 118
showrooming, 218, 221 Storz, 22
Silver Lake Partners, 182 strategic adjustments, 46
Simmons, Bill, 242 streaming services, 244-245
Simon & Schuster, 204 Streptomyces hygroscopicus, 94
Simons, Jim, 120 strict liability, 79-80
Su, Lisa, 160

274 Index
sub-zero segment, 153-154 taxes, impact on distribution of U.S.
Südhof, Thomas, 94 income, 113-114
superstore concept (Barnes & Noble), TBS, 242
189-191 TD Ameritrade, 223
surgical procedures, 14 TD Waterhouse, 219
surprises, uncertainty and, 43 technological disruptions
sustainability alternative energy, 16
cleaner energy, 135-145 artificial intelligence, 16
biofuels, 143-145 explained, 11
building energy, 136-138 genetic technology, 15
energy storage, 142-143 importance of, 1
industrial and commercial energy, material sciences, 16-17
138 medical technologies, 13-15
progress and challenges, 135-136 nanotechnology, 16-17
solar power, 138-140 theoretical knowledge as source of
wind power, 140-142 innovation, 11-12
fossil fuels, 130-135 waves of innovation, 1
hydraulic fracking, 132-133 telecommunications technology to
offshore recovery, 134-135 benefit the poor, 122-123
oil price declines, 130-132 Telefonica, 181
tar sands, 133-134 Tenet, George J., 106
Monsanto, 25 terror, combating, 106-108
overview, 129-130 aircraft protection, 108
Sweeny, Anne, 236 biometrics, 107
Symbian, 22 explosives-detection technology, 108
Szostak, Jack, 94 network-centric operations, 107
nonlethal weapons, 107-108
T Palantir Technologies, 106-107
Tesla, 30-32
Tabula, 162
Tetlock, Philip, 40
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), 164
theoretical knowledge as source of
taking notice of periphery, 43-44 innovation, 11-12
tar sands, 133-134 Thiel, Peter, 107
third-party selling by Amazon, 193-194

Index 275
3M, 22 treatments. See medical technologies
tight coupling, 61-62 trends
Time, 234 bookselling sales trends, 200-201
Time Warner uncertainty and, 40
AOL-Time Warner merger, 237 TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor), 164
cable holdings, 241-242 turbines, 140-142
cable’s abandonment by young Turner, Ted, 237
viewers, 244-245 Twentieth Century Fox, 229
financial performance (2015), 241 20th Century Fox studios, 233-234, 237
HBO, 240
Internet initiatives, 243-244 U
mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures,
232-235 Uber, 50
overview, 229-230 uncertainty
vertical integration, 231-232 committing with fallbacks, 49-50
TNT, 242 delaying until clarity emerges, 49
top of income pyramid, technology at, expert opinion, 40-41
117-121 gambling on most probable outcome,
hedge funds, 118-121 47-48
Renaissance Technologies historical analogies, 41
(RenTech), 120-121 industry analysis, 42
standards for qualified purchasers, overview, 39
119 robust strategies, 48-49
trading strategies, 118 scenarios, 42-46
sophisticated trading models, 117 applying scenario logic to technology
Topol, Eric, 71 commercialization, 45
tort law, 78 narrative details, 44
Touchstone, 236 romances, tragedies, and comedies,
Toyota, 27, 29 44
trading models, 117 strategic adjustments, 46
tragedies, 44 surprises, 43
transfers, impact on distribution of U.S. taking notice of periphery, 43-44
income, 113-114 trends, 40
Transocean, 60 uncertain government support,
Transphorm, 138 commercialization and, 34-35

276 Index
Union Carbide case study (Bhopal, W
India), 55-58
Union Carbide plant explosion (Bhopal, Walden Books, 190
India), 55-58 WALK method, 213
United States v. Carroll Towing Co., 79 Walmart, 217
Universal Studios, 233 Washington Post, 11.105
water, potable, 123-124
V waves of innovation, 1
wealth distribution
validators, 215
within-country gaps, 112
value of human life, quantifying, 65
between-country gaps, 112-113
vanadium flow batteries, 142
overview, 111
Verlagsgruppe Georg von Holtzbrinck
group, 204 rise of neoliberalism, 115-116
vertical integration technology at bottom of income
pyramid, 121-126
Disney, 230
benefits and challenges, 121-122
Time Warner, 231-232
energy, 125-126
Via Technologies, 153
health services, 124
Viacom, 229, 233, 239
nutrition and crop protection,
Vioxx, 66, 69-73
124-125
communication failures, 71
potable water, 123-124
criminal charges against Merck, 73
telecommunications, 122-123
criticism of Vioxx, 72
technology at top of income pyramid,
development of Vioxx, 70 117-121
early warnings, 70-71 hedge funds, 118-121
FDA’s required warning, 71 sophisticated models, 117
lawsuits against Merck, 72-73 U.S. wealth gap, 113-115
reputation of Merck prior to Vioxx, 70 weapons, nonlethal, 107-108
voluntary recall, 72 The Weather Channel, 242
Volt, 29 websites, BarnesAndNoble.com, 194
Volta, Alessandro, 21 West, Tony, 73
voluntary recalls. See recalls wholesalers (book industry), 203
Vuzix, 163

Index 277
“willingness to pay” criteria, 65
wind power, 16, 140-142
within-country gaps (wealth
distribution), 112
World Resources Institute (WRI), 123
WRI (World Resources Institute), 123

X
Xeon processor, 154
Xerox, 19-20, 32-33, 35

Y
Yeh, Carolyn, 176
young people, 96-108
abandonment of cable industry,
244-245
diminishing youth bulges, 102-106
hope and disillusion, 96-97
meaningful work, 97-99
post-9/11 scenarios, 99-101
technology to combat terror, 106-108
aircraft protection, 108
biometrics, 107
explosives-detection technology, 108
network-centric operations, 107
nonlethal weapons, 107-108
Palantir Technologies, 106-107
youth bulges, diminishing, 102-106

Z
Zilog, 153
zinc-bromide flow batteries, 142

278 Index