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ENERGY MANAGEMENT IN HYBRID PV-WIND- BATTERY STORAGE-BASED

MICROGRID USING MONTE CARLO OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUE

Article in JOURNAL OF MECHANICS OF CONTINUA AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES · December 2024

DOI: 10.26782/jmcms.2024.12.00014

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 JOURNAL OF MECHANICS OF CONTINUA AND
MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
www.journalimcms.org

ISSN (Online) : 2454 -7190Cont.&

J. Mech. Vol.-19,Math.
No.-12, December
Sci., Vol.-19,(2024) pp 224
No.-12, - 255 ISSN
December (Print)
(2024) pp 0973-8975
224-255

ENERGY MANAGEMENT IN HYBRID PV-WIND-

BATTERY STORAGE-BASED MICROGRID USING
MONTE CARLO OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUE
Bibhu Prasad Ganthia1, Praveen B. M.2, S. R. Barkunan3
A. V. G. A. Marthanda4, N. M. G. Kumar5, S. Kaliappan6
1
Department of College of Engineering and Technology, Srinivas University,
Mangalore, 574146, India.
2
College of Engineering and Technology, Srinivas University, Mangalore,
574146, India.
3
Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Vel Tech Rangarajan
Dr. Sagunthala R&D Institute of Science and Technology, Chennai
Tamil Nadu, India.
4
Department of EEE, Lakireddy Balireddy College of Engineering Mylavaram
(Permanently Affiliated To JNTU Kakinada), Andhra Pradesh, India.
5
Department of EEE, Mohan Babu University, Sree Vidyanikethan
Engineering college, A Rangam Pet, Tirupathi, Andhra Pradesh India.
6
Assistant Professor, Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering,
Kumaraguru College of Technology, Tamil Nadu, India.
Email: [email protected], [email protected] [email protected],
4
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

Corresponding Author: Bibhu Prasad Ganthia

https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2024.12.00014
(Received: July 25, 2024; Revised: November 17, 2024; Accepted: November 27, 2024)

Abstract
The paper presents an efficient energy management system designed for a
small-scale hybrid microgrid incorporating wind, solar, and battery-based energy
generation systems using three types of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The heart
of the proposed system is the energy management system, which is responsible for
maintaining power balance within the microgrid. The EMS continuously monitors
variations in renewable energy generation and load demand and adjusts the
operation of the energy conversion systems and battery storage to ensure optimal
performance and reliability. The primary objective of the energy management system
is to maintain power balance within the microgrid, even in the face of fluctuations in
renewable energy generation and load demand. This involves dynamically adjusting
the operation of the renewable energy sources and battery storage system to match
the instantaneous power requirements of the microgrid. Overall, the paper presents a

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comprehensive approach to designing and implementing the Monte Carlo technique
to extract maximum energy profit using the hybrid microgrid. By integrating
renewable energy sources with energy storage and advanced control algorithms, the
proposed system aims to enhance the reliability, stability, and sustainability of the
microgrid's power supply.
Keywords: Battery Storage, Energy Management System, Microgrids, Monte Carlo
Optimization, Optimization, Photovoltaic (PV), Uncertainties, Wind Energy.

I. Introduction
A microgrid is a localized energy system that integrates loads and distributed
energy resources (DERs) to function as a unified entity, either connected to the main
utility grid or operating independently. As shown in Fig. 1, a microgrid supports both
grid-connected and islanded operational modes, offering significant flexibility in
energy management. Power electronic converters play a pivotal role in microgrid
systems, enabling the integration of renewable energy sources through two-stage
conversion processes [I]. In the first stage, a DC/DC boost converter connects DC
sources, such as solar photovoltaic (PV) panels and batteries, to a common DC bus.
In the second stage, a grid-side inverter transforms the DC power into alternating
current (AC) for integration with the utility grid. Wind energy systems, in contrast,
are connected directly to the AC bus via rotor-side and grid-side converters, which
are linked through the DC bus. Additionally, energy storage systems, like batteries,
are interfaced with the DC bus using bidirectional converters, allowing energy flow in
both directions [II]. Microgrid modeling and simulation allow for the simultaneous
analysis of electromagnetic transients, dynamic behavior, and steady-state operations.
The development of advanced power electronic converters and control algorithms is
essential for achieving smooth power integration. Controller hardware-in-the-loop
(HIL) testing is widely used to ensure system stability, as it enables physical
controllers to interact with simulated microgrid models and associated power devices
[III]. Microgrids differ fundamentally from traditional centralized grids. First, they
generate energy close to their consumers, representing a localized approach to energy
production. This proximity reduces transmission and distribution losses, which in
centralized grids can range from 8% to 15%, as power is transported over long
distances. Microgrid generators may be located within buildings or use rooftop solar
panels, significantly improving efficiency [IV]. Second, microgrids feature an
islanding capability, allowing them to disconnect from the central grid and operate
independently. This ensures a reliable power supply during outages caused by storms
or other disruptions, maintaining energy access for local users [V]. This dual
functionality of localized power generation and islanding capability positions
microgrids as an innovative solution to the challenges of energy efficiency and
reliability in modern power systems [VI].

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Fig. 1. Microgrid model

Microgrid modeling serves as the foundation for understanding the operational
behavior and dynamic interactions of components within a microgrid [VII]. A
microgrid typically consists of distributed energy resources (DERs) like solar PV,
wind turbines, and energy storage systems, along with loads and control systems.
Modeling focuses on capturing these elements' electrical and mechanical
characteristics, including their interactions with the utility grid or during islanded
operation [VIII]. Key aspects include steady-state analysis, dynamic response, and
transient behavior under various scenarios such as load changes or grid disturbances.
Advanced simulation tools, such as MATLAB/Simulink and PSCAD, are commonly
used to evaluate these factors, enabling engineers to optimize the design and
operation of microgrids [IX]. Microgrid operations involve managing power flow
between DERs, loads, storage systems, and the main grid to ensure stability,
reliability, and efficiency. In grid-connected mode, the microgrid works in tandem
with the central grid, optimizing energy consumption by utilizing locally generated
renewable energy. During islanded operation, the microgrid operates autonomously,
relying on energy storage and local generation to balance supply and demand. Power
electronic converters play a vital role in these operations, facilitating the integration
of renewable sources and ensuring seamless transitions between grid-connected and
islanded modes. Advanced algorithms, such as droop control and predictive models,
are employed to manage voltage, frequency, and load-sharing effectively. Control
systems in modern microgrids are designed to handle diverse operational challenges,
including variability in renewable energy output and fluctuations in load demand.
Primary control ensures local stability by regulating voltage and frequency at the
component level [X]. Secondary control restores any deviations in voltage and
frequency caused by load changes, while tertiary control optimizes overall energy
management and economic dispatch. The integration of machine learning and
artificial intelligence in control strategies has further enhanced the real-time
adaptability of microgrids, enabling predictive maintenance, fault detection, and
improved energy efficiency. As microgrids become more prevalent, the development
of robust control algorithms remains a critical area of focus in ensuring their
scalability and reliability [XI].
II. Photovoltaic Model
A photovoltaic (PV) system converts sunlight into electricity using solar
cells, which are semiconductor devices arranged into panels or modules [XII]. The
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single-diode model is a widely used representation to describe the electrical behavior
of a solar cell [XIII]. This model consists of a current source, representing the light-
generated current (Iph), in parallel with a diode that accounts for the recombination
losses within the cell [XIV]. A series resistance (Rs) models the resistive losses due
to current flow through the contacts and materials, while a shunt resistance (Rsh)
represents leakage current paths across the cell [XV].

Fig. 2. Single diode model

In Fig. 2, the single-diode model simplifies the complexity of solar cell operation,
making it easier to predict system behavior and optimize design parameters. The
diode’s characteristics are critical for determining the cell's voltage-current (V−I)
relationship, which directly influences the power output. By analyzing the equivalent
circuit, engineers can calculate the maximum power point (MPP) and design
maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithms to enhance system efficiency.
Additionally, the model helps in understanding how Rs and Rsh impact the fill factor,
overall efficiency, and performance under real-world operating conditions. This
understanding is pivotal for optimizing PV system integration into larger energy
systems, such as microgrids or standalone setups.:
V+I×Rs V+I×Rs
I = Ilg − Ios [exp {q × A×K×T
}− 1]− Rsh
(1)

Where,
1 1
T −
Ios = Ior × ( )3 × [exp {q × Ego × Tr T}] (2)
Tr A×K

Ilg = {Iscr + Ki × (T−25)}× lambda (3)

The characteristic equation depends upon the connection of the solar module. That is
total no. of cells connected in series and parallel. Current variation in the solar
module due to shunt resistance is less and due to the series resistance is more [XVII].
V Rs Np
+I× V× +I×Rs
I = Np + Ilg × Ios × [ exp {q × Ns Np
A×K×T
}−1]− Ns
Rsh
(4)

When the photon of light drops on a solar cell, it delivers the free electrons from the
upper layer of the cell [XVIII]. By applying the formula of threshold energy, we can
get the appropriate intensity of light. A photovoltaic (PV) system works by
converting sunlight into electrical energy using solar cells made of semiconductor
materials like silicon. When sunlight strikes the solar cell, photons in the light excite

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electrons in the semiconductor material, creating an electron-hole pair. This process
generates a direct current (DC) flow as the electrons are driven towards the negative
terminal and the holes towards the positive terminal of the cell, forming an electric
circuit. The generated current is proportional to the intensity of sunlight, while the
voltage depends on the material properties and the operating temperature of the cell.
A typical PV system includes solar panels, a DC-DC converter, and an inverter. The
solar panels generate DC electricity, which is then optimized using a DC-DC
converter to maintain the maximum power point (MPP). This ensures the system
operates efficiently under varying sunlight and temperature conditions. The inverter
converts the DC electricity into alternating current (AC) for compatibility with
household appliances and the utility grid. Energy storage systems, such as batteries,
can be integrated to store excess energy for use during low sunlight periods, ensuring
continuous energy availability. By combining these components, PV systems provide
a sustainable and efficient solution for harnessing solar energy [XIX].
III. Wind Turbine Model
A Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS) is a technology used to convert
wind energy into electrical energy shown below in figure no. 3. It typically consists of
several components working together to harness the power of the wind and produce
electricity. Aerodynamically designed blades mounted on a rotor hub. Rotor blades
capture the kinetic energy of the wind and convert it into rotational mechanical
energy. The rotor hub is the central component to which the rotor blades are attached.
It transfers the rotational energy from the blades to the rotor shaft. A long, sturdy
rotor shaft is connected to the rotor hub. As the rotor blades rotate, they transfer
mechanical energy to the rotor shaft. In some designs, a gearbox may be included to
increase the rotational speed of the rotor shaft, optimizing it for the generator's
requirements [XX]. The generator converts the mechanical energy from the rotor
shaft into electrical energy. Different types of generators can be used, including
synchronous, asynchronous, and doubly-fed induction generators (DFIG). Yaw
mechanism that rotates the entire turbine nacelle to align the rotor blades with the
direction of the wind. This ensures optimal energy capture. The tower provides
support for the entire wind turbine structure, raising it to an optimal height above the
ground to capture higher wind speeds [XXI]. The control system monitors various
parameters such as wind speed, rotor speed, power output, and grid conditions. It
adjusts the pitch angle of the blades, controls the yaw mechanism, and manages the
electrical output of the generator to optimize energy production and ensure safe
operation. In grid-connected systems, the electrical energy generated by the wind
turbine is converted to a form suitable for grid integration. This may involve power
electronics such as inverters or rectifiers. The foundation provides stability and
support for the entire wind turbine structure, anchoring it securely to the ground or
seabed [XXII].

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Fig. 3. Wind Energy Conversion System

A Wind Energy Conversion System is a complex engineering system that harnesses
the natural power of the wind to produce clean, renewable electricity. It plays a
crucial role in the transition to a more sustainable energy future [XXIII]. A Doubly-
Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) is a type of wind turbine generator that uses a wound
rotor induction generator system. The rotor assembly consists of the rotor shaft and
the rotor windings. The rotor windings are connected to the grid via slip rings and
brushes, allowing for bidirectional power flow between the rotor and the grid. The
stator assembly consists of the stator windings, which are fixed and typically
connected directly to the grid. When the rotor is excited with a three-phase AC
current, it induces a rotating magnetic field in the stator windings, which generates
electrical power. The converter system is a crucial component of the DFIG [XXIV]. It
consists of two power converters: the rotor-side converter (RSC) and the grid-side
converter (GSC). The RSC controls the rotor current and allows for variable speed
operation of the turbine, while the GSC controls the power flow between the stator
and the grid. The pitch control system is responsible for adjusting the pitch angle of
the turbine blades to optimize power production and protect the turbine during high
wind speeds. It typically consists of hydraulic or electric actuators that adjust the
angle of the blades based on input from sensors monitoring wind speed and turbine
performance [XXV]. The yaw control system is responsible for orienting the turbine
rotor into the wind to maximize power production. It typically consists of yaw motors
and controllers that adjust the orientation of the entire turbine nacelle in response to
changes in wind direction. The control system of a DFIG-based wind turbine is
responsible for monitoring various parameters such as wind speed, rotor speed, grid
voltage, and grid frequency. It uses this information to regulate the operation of the
turbine, including the pitch angle of the blades and the power output of the
converters, to optimize energy production and ensure stable grid integration. This
model outlines the key components and systems of a DFIG-based wind turbine,
highlighting its ability to achieve variable speed operation and provide grid support
through power electronics control. Using the fixed blade angle method, the angle of
the turbine blades is fixed. This means that the blades cannot adjust their orientation
to the wind. As a result, the turbine operates optimally at a specific wind speed range,
and beyond that range, the fixed blades act as a natural speed limiter, preventing the
turbine from spinning too fast and potentially causing damage. Active stall control
involves intentionally stalling the turbine blades by adjusting their angle during high

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wind speeds. By changing the angle of attack of the blades, the lift force generated by
the wind is reduced, effectively limiting the turbine's power output. Active stall
systems typically include mechanisms to adjust the blade angle dynamically in
response to changes in wind speed. Pitch control involves adjusting the angle of the
turbine blades in real time to optimize their efficiency and control the turbine's power
output. When wind speeds exceed a certain threshold, the pitch angle of the blades is
adjusted to reduce their surface area exposed to the wind, thereby limiting the amount
of power generated by the turbine. Pitch control systems use sensors to monitor wind
conditions and adjust the blade angle accordingly. These methods are essential for
ensuring the safe and efficient operation of wind turbines across a wide range of wind
speeds. By controlling the power output of the turbine, they help to maximize energy
production while minimizing the risk of damage to the turbine components. Each
method has its advantages and is suitable for different turbine designs and operating
conditions [XXVI]. Standalone systems are designed to operate independently of the
electrical grid. They are commonly used in remote areas where grid connection is not
available or feasible. Since standalone systems don't have the grid as a backup, they
often incorporate energy storage solutions such as batteries or pumped hydro storage
to store excess energy generated during periods of high wind for use during periods of
low wind. Standalone systems must be carefully sized to match the energy demand of
the connected loads. Energy management and load-shedding strategies may be
employed to ensure that energy supply meets demand. Standalone systems require
sophisticated control systems to manage energy production, storage, and distribution
efficiently [XXVII]. These systems must adapt to varying wind conditions and load
demands to ensure a reliable power supply. Grid-integrated systems are connected to
the electrical grid, allowing them to export surplus energy to the grid and import
energy when needed. They are commonly deployed in areas with existing grid
infrastructure. Grid-integrated systems can provide ancillary services to the grid, such
as frequency regulation and voltage support. This helps enhance grid stability and
reliability. In many jurisdictions, grid-integrated systems can take advantage of net
metering policies, allowing them to offset their electricity bills by exporting excess
energy to the grid. Grid-integrated systems must comply with local grid codes and
standards to ensure safe and reliable operation. This may involve implementing grid-
connection protection systems and meeting specific requirements for voltage and
frequency regulation. Both standalone and grid-integrated wind energy conversion
systems play important roles in the transition to renewable energy. Standalone
systems provide energy access in remote areas, while grid-integrated systems
contribute to grid stability and help decarbonize the electricity sector. The choice
between the two depends on factors such as location, energy demand, grid
availability, and regulatory framework [XXVIII].
IV. Battery Storage System
Battery storage systems play a crucial role in microgrids, enhancing their
flexibility, resilience, and efficiency. Battery storage systems store excess energy
generated by renewable sources, such as solar panels and wind turbines, during
periods of low demand or high generation. This stored energy can then be discharged
when demand exceeds generation, ensuring a stable and reliable power supply within
the microgrid. Battery storage systems allow for load shifting by storing surplus
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energy during off-peak periods and discharging it during peak demand times. This
helps to reduce electricity costs by avoiding expensive peak-hour rates and
optimizing energy usage within the microgrid [XXIX]. In grid-connected microgrids,
battery storage systems can provide ancillary services to the central grid, such as
frequency regulation, voltage support, and grid stabilization. By injecting or
absorbing power as needed, battery systems help to maintain grid stability and
reliability. Battery storage systems enable microgrids to operate independently from
the central grid during outages or emergencies. In islanded mode, batteries serve as a
backup power source, ensuring uninterrupted electricity supply to critical loads within
the microgrid. It facilitates the integration of variable renewable energy sources, such
as solar and wind, into the microgrid. By smoothing out fluctuations in generation
and providing firming capacity, batteries help stabilize the grid and maximize the
utilization of renewable energy resources. It can be used for peak shaving, reducing
peak demand charges by discharging stored energy during periods of high electricity
consumption. This can result in significant cost savings for microgrid operators and
end-users. They integrated into the microgrid's control and optimization algorithms,
allowing for dynamic management of energy flows and resources. Advanced control
strategies optimize battery operation based on factors such as electricity prices,
demand patterns, and renewable energy availability. Overall, battery storage systems
are essential components of microgrids, enabling them to efficiently manage energy
supply and demand, enhance grid stability, and support the integration of renewable
energy sources. As battery technology continues to advance, the role of energy
storage in microgrids is expected to grow, further contributing to the transition
towards a more sustainable and resilient energy system. The battery energy storage
systems (BESS) are crucial components in managing the power balance within
microgrids, especially when integrating variable renewable energy sources like solar
and wind. These systems store excess energy during times of surplus generation and
discharge it when demand exceeds supply, helping to stabilize the grid and ensure a
reliable power supply. NiCd batteries are known for their durability and reliability.
They have a long cycle life and perform well in extreme temperatures. However, they
are less energy-dense compared to other battery types and have environmental
concerns due to their cadmium content. NiMH batteries offer higher energy density
and improved environmental friendliness compared to NiCd batteries. They have a
good cycle life and are commonly used in consumer electronics and hybrid electric
vehicles. Lead acid batteries are one of the oldest and most established battery
technologies. They are cost-effective and have a relatively long cycle life. However,
they are bulky, heavy, and have lower energy density compared to other battery types.
Li-ion batteries are widely used in BESS due to their high energy density, efficiency,
and relatively long cycle life. They are lightweight and have a fast charge/discharge
rate, making them suitable for various applications, including grid-scale energy
storage. Li-poly batteries are a type of Li-ion battery with a polymer electrolyte. They
offer similar advantages to Li-ion batteries, including high energy density and
lightweight design. However, they are less common in large-scale energy storage
applications. Sodium sulfur batteries operate at high temperatures and are suitable for
grid-scale energy storage applications. They have high energy density and long cycle
life but require careful thermal management. Sodium nickel chloride batteries, also
known as Zebra batteries, operate at high temperatures and offer high energy density
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and long cycle life. They are used in grid-scale energy storage and electric vehicle
applications. Zinc-air batteries utilize zinc and oxygen from the air as reactants,
making them lightweight and cost-effective. They have potential for grid-scale energy
storage but are still in the early stages of commercialization. Each battery type has its
advantages and disadvantages, and the choice depends on factors such as cost, energy
density, cycle life, operating conditions, and specific application requirements. As
technology advances and economies of scale improve battery energy storage systems
are expected to play an increasingly important role in enabling the transition to a
more sustainable and resilient energy system [XXX].

Fig 4. Energy density and power density for various rechargeable batteries

Figure 4 illustrates the relationship between energy density and power density for
various rechargeable battery technologies. A clear overview of the differences
between Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) and Nickel-Metal Hydride (NiMH) battery
technologies, as well as their suitability for use in photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy
systems [XXXI]. NiMH batteries offer improvements over NiCd technology,
particularly in terms of energy density and environmental impact. The use of a metal
hydride anode eliminates the environmental concerns associated with cadmium,
making NiMH batteries more environmentally friendly. These batteries have a
negligible memory effect compared to NiCd batteries. Memory effect refers to the
phenomenon where a battery gradually loses its capacity to hold a charge if it is
repeatedly recharged before being fully discharged. While NiMH batteries offer
higher energy density and improved environmental performance, they may have
limitations in delivering high peak power and may have a higher self-discharge rate
compared to NiCd batteries. Additionally, NiMH batteries may be more susceptible
to damage from overcharging. Currently, NiMH batteries may be more expensive
than NiCd batteries [XXXII]. However, it is expected that the cost of NiMH batteries
will decrease significantly in the future, particularly with advancements in technology
and increased adoption in applications such as electric vehicles. NiMH batteries are
expected to see increased adoption, particularly in applications where environmental
concerns and energy density are important factors. Development programs targeting
large-scale applications, such as electric vehicles, are likely to drive down the cost of

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NiMH batteries and make them more competitive with other battery technologies.
The transition from NiCd to NiMH batteries represents a step forward in battery
technology, offering improved performance and environmental sustainability. As
technology continues to advance and economies of scale improve, NiMH batteries are
expected to play an increasingly important role in various energy storage applications,
including those in PV and wind energy systems. Below a battery model in Simulink
involves defining the behavior of the battery, such as its charge and discharge
characteristics, and implementing it using appropriate blocks. Here below is the
MATLAB code presented to create a basic battery model in Simulink:
% Define battery parameters
battery_capacity = 100; % Battery capacity (Ah)
battery_voltage = 12; % Nominal battery voltage (V)
% Create Simulink model
model = 'battery_model';
open_system(new_system(model));
% Add input signals
add_block('simulink/Sources/Step', [model '/Charging
Current']);
add_block('simulink/Sources/Step', [model '/Discharging
Current']);
add_line(model, 'Charging Current/1', 'Battery Model/1');
add_line(model, 'Discharging Current/1', 'Battery Model/2');
% Add battery model
add_block('simulink/Continuous/Integrator', [model '/Battery
Model']);
set_param([model '/Battery Model'], 'InitialCondition',
'battery_capacity');
% Add battery discharge resistor
add_block('simulink/Commonly Used Blocks/Resistor', [model
'/Discharge Resistor']);
set_param([model '/Discharge Resistor'], 'Resistance',
num2str(battery_voltage));
% Connect blocks
add_line(model, 'Battery Model/1', 'Discharge Resistor/1');
% Set simulation parameters
set_param(model, 'StopTime', '10');
% Run simulation
sim(model);
% Plot results
plot(ans.time, ans.battery_model);
xlabel('Time (s)');
ylabel('Battery Charge (Ah)');
title('Battery Model Simulation');
The MATLAB battery model is illustrated in Figure below 5. The codes generated
above represents the input to the microgrid from BESS.
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Fig. 5. Simulink Battery Model

V. State of Charge of Battery System
The State of Charge (SoC) of a battery in a microgrid represents the amount
of energy stored in the battery relative to its total capacity [XXXIII]. It is often
expressed as a percentage, ranging from 0% (fully discharged) to 100% (fully
charged). The SoC of a battery can be mathematically expressed using the following
formula:
SoC = EstoredEtotal × 100% SoC = EtotalEstored × 100% (1)
Where:
• SoC is the State of Charge of the battery (in percentage).
• Estored is the energy stored in the battery (in watt-hours or kilowatt-hours).
• Etotal is the total energy capacity of the battery (in watt-hours or kilowatt-
hours).
Alternatively, if you have the battery's current and voltage information, you can use
the following formula to calculate SoC:
SoC = ∫{I(t)⋅V(t) dt / C} ×100% (2)
Where:
• I(t) is the battery current at time tt (in amperes).
• V(t) is the battery voltage at time tt (in volts).
• C is the rated capacity of the battery (in ampere-hours).
This formula integrates the product of current and voltage over time to calculate the
total energy transferred into or out of the battery, relative to its rated capacity. Both of
these expressions provide a mathematical representation of the State of Charge of a
battery in a microgrid. Below is the MATLAB code, demonstrating how to calculate
and update the State of Charge (SoC) of a battery in a microgrid simulation:
% Define battery parameters
battery_capacity = 100; % Battery capacity in kWh
initial_soc = 0.5; % Initial state of charge (SoC)
charge_efficiency = 0.95; % Charging efficiency
discharge_efficiency = 0.90; % Discharging efficiency
% Define simulation parameters
time_steps = 24; % Number of time steps
load_demand = [10 20 30 25 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
95 100 95 90 85 80 75 70]; % Load demand profile in kW

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% Initialize SoC array
soc = zeros(1, time_steps);
soc(1) = initial_soc;
% Simulate battery operation over time steps
for t = 2:time_steps
% Calculate net power flow (load demand - renewable
generation)
net_power = load_demand(t) - renewable_generation(t);
% Calculate charging or discharging power based on net
power flow
if net_power > 0
% Discharging: decrease SoC
discharged_energy = net_power / discharge_efficiency; %
Energy discharged from battery
soc(t) = soc(t-1) - (discharged_energy /
battery_capacity);
elseif net_power < 0
% Charging: increase SoC
charged_energy = -net_power * charge_efficiency; %
Energy charged into battery
soc(t) = soc(t-1) + (charged_energy /
battery_capacity);
else
% No net power flow, SoC remains unchanged
soc(t) = soc(t-1);
end

% Ensure SoC stays within 0-1 range

soc(t) = max(min(soc(t), 1), 0);
end

% Plot SoC over time

time = 1:time_steps;
plot(time, soc, 'LineWidth', 2);
xlabel('Time Step');
ylabel('State of Charge (SoC)');
title('Battery SoC Over Time');
grid on;
In microgrid design, the parameters of the battery, such as capacity, initial SoC,
charging efficiency, and discharging efficiency can be calculated from the above code
which is utilized in this research. To simulate the operation of the battery over a series
of time steps, where the load demand varies the SoC accordingly operated within the
valid range of 0 to 1.
VI. Monte Carlo simulation
Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful technique used in microgrids for
analyzing uncertainties and evaluating system performance under various operating
conditions. Microgrid systems are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including
renewable energy generation variability, load fluctuations, equipment failures, and

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market price fluctuations. Monte Carlo simulation can be used to model these
uncertainties by generating random samples from probability distributions
representing uncertain parameters such as solar irradiance, wind speed, load demand,
and equipment reliability. By simulating multiple scenarios with different
combinations of parameter values, Monte Carlo simulation provides insights into the
range of possible outcomes and the associated probabilities. This simulation
technique can assess the reliability of microgrid systems by simulating the occurrence
of equipment failures and other disruptive events. By considering the probability of
failure for each component (e.g., generators, inverters, batteries), Monte Carlo
simulation can estimate the probability of system downtime or degraded performance
over a given time period. This information helps microgrid operators make informed
decisions about system design, maintenance scheduling, and contingency planning to
enhance reliability. It can be integrated with optimization and control algorithms to
optimize microgrid operation under uncertainty. By repeatedly simulating different
operating strategies and evaluating their performance across multiple scenarios,
Monte Carlo optimization algorithms can identify robust control strategies that
minimize operating costs, maximize renewable energy integration, and ensure system
stability under uncertain conditions. It is used for financial analysis of microgrid
projects, considering uncertainties in factors such as energy prices, equipment costs,
and government incentives.

Fig. 6. Flow diagram of the Monte Carlo simulation in microgrids

By simulating the financial performance of the microgrid over its lifetime under
various market conditions, Monte Carlo simulation helps investors and project
developers assess the risks and returns associated with different investment options
and financing structures. It allows for the analysis of "what-if" scenarios to evaluate
the impact of different factors on microgrid performance. For example, scenarios can
be created to assess the effects of changes in renewable energy penetration levels,
energy storage capacities, or demand response participation rates on key performance
indicators such as energy costs, emissions, and system reliability. Overall, Monte
Carlo simulation is a versatile tool that enables comprehensive analysis and decision-
making in microgrid planning, operation, and management by accounting for
uncertainties and evaluating system performance under realistic conditions. These
Monte Carlo simulation techniques shown below in Figure No. 6 are widely used in
power systems and microgrid energy management systems (EMS) for scenario
generation. They enable the exploration of a wide range of possible scenarios,
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considering uncertainties in input variables such as demand, renewable generation,
and equipment failures. The generated scenarios can then be utilized in stochastic
optimization algorithms to optimize microgrid operation under uncertainty, ensuring
robust and reliable performance. Below is a MATLAB code presented for performing
a Monte Carlo simulation for a microgrid with photovoltaic (PV), wind, and battery
energy storage system (BESS). This generates random samples for PV generation,
wind generation, and battery state of charge (SoC) based on specified distributions.
Then, it simulates the operation of the microgrid for each sample and collects the
results for analysis.
% Define parameters
num_samples = 1000; % Number of Monte Carlo samples
% PV parameters
mean_pv_generation = 200; % Mean PV generation in kW
std_pv_generation = 50; % Standard deviation of PV generation
in kW
% Wind parameters
mean_wind_generation = 150; % Mean wind generation in kW
std_wind_generation = 30; % Standard deviation of wind
generation in kW
% BESS parameters
initial_soc = 0.5; % Initial state of charge
max_soc = 1; % Maximum state of charge
min_soc = 0; % Minimum state of charge
bess_efficiency = 0.9; % Efficiency of the battery system
% Initialize arrays to store results
total_demand = zeros(num_samples, 1);
total_generation = zeros(num_samples, 1);
total_import = zeros(num_samples, 1);
total_export = zeros(num_samples, 1);
total_battery_charge = zeros(num_samples, 1);
total_battery_discharge = zeros(num_samples, 1);
% Perform Monte Carlo simulation
for i = 1:num_samples
% Generate random samples for PV generation, wind
generation, and battery SoC
pv_generation = normrnd(mean_pv_generation,
std_pv_generation);
wind_generation = normrnd(mean_wind_generation,
std_wind_generation);
battery_soc = initial_soc;
% Simulate microgrid operation for the current sample
total_generation(i) = pv_generation + wind_generation;
total_demand(i) = % Your demand calculation function here
% Determine surplus/deficit power
surplus_power = total_generation(i) - total_demand(i);

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% Battery operation
if surplus_power > 0
% Charge battery
if battery_soc < max_soc
% Calculate available battery charging capacity
available_charging_capacity = min(surplus_power,
(max_soc - battery_soc) / bess_efficiency);
total_battery_charge(i) =
available_charging_capacity * bess_efficiency;
battery_soc = min(battery_soc +
available_charging_capacity, max_soc);
end
elseif surplus_power < 0
% Discharge battery
if battery_soc > min_soc
% Calculate required battery discharge
required_discharge = min(-surplus_power *
bess_efficiency, battery_soc - min_soc);
total_battery_discharge(i) = required_discharge;
battery_soc = max(battery_soc - required_discharge,
min_soc);
end
end
% Calculate import/export power
if surplus_power > 0
total_export(i) = surplus_power;
elseif surplus_power < 0
total_import(i) = -surplus_power;
end
end
% Analyze results (e.g., calculate mean, standard deviation,
etc.)
mean_demand = mean(total_demand);
mean_generation = mean(total_generation);
mean_import = mean(total_import);
mean_export = mean(total_export);
mean_battery_charge = mean(total_battery_charge);
mean_battery_discharge = mean(total_battery_discharge);
% Display results
disp(['Mean Total Demand: ', num2str(mean_demand), ' kW']);
disp(['Mean Total Generation: ', num2str(mean_generation), '
kW']);
disp(['Mean Total Import: ', num2str(mean_import), ' kW']);
disp(['Mean Total Export: ', num2str(mean_export), ' kW']);
disp(['Mean Battery Charge: ', num2str(mean_battery_charge), '
kW']);
disp(['Mean Battery Discharge: ',
num2str(mean_battery_discharge), ' kW']);
This technique operates on three stages. First stage is power output forecast using
artificial neural network. In this stage involves predicting the power output of a
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system using artificial neural networks (ANNs). ANNs are a type of machine learning
algorithm inspired by the biological neural networks of animal brains. They're
particularly useful for pattern recognition and prediction tasks, making them well-
suited for forecasting power output based on historical data and other relevant factors.
The second stage is Misclassification Correction. This stage likely deals with refining
the accuracy of the forecasts generated by the ANN. Misclassifications could refer to
inaccuracies or errors in the predicted power output. This could involve using
additional algorithms or techniques to correct any misclassifications and improve the
overall reliability of the forecasts. The third stage is Battery Storage Operations. This
stage involves managing the operation of battery storage systems based on the
forecasts generated in the first stage. Battery storage is crucial for storing excess
energy generated during periods of high output and supplying energy during times of
low output or high demand. Optimizing the operation of battery storage systems can
help balance supply and demand, increase system resilience, and reduce overall
energy costs. In figure no. 7 shown below represents the flowchart for the Monte
Carlo simulation.

Fig. 7. Flowchart for Monte Carlo simulation

Table 1: Monte Carlo simulation parameters
Iterations 20
Days of Simulation 30
SoC of BESS (Starting) 75%
Electricity bill from the grid to the 1.5 Rs/KWh
firm
Penalty 0.5 Rs/KWh
Electricity bill from the firm to the Odisha Rs 1 50 3
grid (Applicable 20/kW/month 51 200 4.8
from 1st 201 400 5.8
April 2022) 401 above 6.2

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Monte Carlo simulation model for a microgrid with photovoltaic (PV), wind, and
battery energy storage systems (BESS) in MATLAB Simulink:
% Define parameters and uncertainty distributions
num_iterations = 100; % Number of Monte Carlo iterations
mean_pv_generation = 200; % Mean PV generation in kW
std_pv_generation = 50; % Standard deviation of PV generation
in kW
mean_wind_generation = 150; % Mean wind generation in kW
std_wind_generation = 30; % Standard deviation of wind
generation in kW
initial_soc = 0.5; % Initial battery state of charge
bess_efficiency = 0.9; % Battery efficiency

% Loop for Monte Carlo simulation

for i = 1:num_iterations
% Sample values from uncertainty distributions
pv_generation = normrnd(mean_pv_generation,
std_pv_generation);
wind_generation = normrnd(mean_wind_generation,
std_wind_generation);

% Simulate microgrid model in Simulink with sampled values

simOut = sim('MicrogridModel', 'StopTime', '24'); %
Simulate for 24 hours

% Collect and analyze simulation results

% Example: Calculate total energy generated
total_pv_energy(i) =
sum(simOut.logsout.getElement('pv_power').Values.Data);
total_wind_energy(i) =
sum(simOut.logsout.getElement('wind_power').Values.Data);
total_battery_energy(i) =
sum(simOut.logsout.getElement('battery_power').Values.Data);
total_import_energy(i) =
sum(simOut.logsout.getElement('grid_import_power').Values.Data)
;
total_export_energy(i) =
sum(simOut.logsout.getElement('grid_export_power').Values.Data)
;
end

% Analyze results (e.g., calculate mean, standard deviation)

mean_total_pv_energy = mean(total_pv_energy);
mean_total_wind_energy = mean(total_wind_energy);
mean_total_battery_energy = mean(total_battery_energy);
mean_total_import_energy = mean(total_import_energy);

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mean_total_export_energy = mean(total_export_energy);
% Display results
disp(['Mean Total PV Energy: ', num2str(mean_total_pv_energy),
' kWh']);
disp(['Mean Total Wind Energy: ',
num2str(mean_total_wind_energy), ' kWh']);
disp(['Mean Total Battery Energy: ',
num2str(mean_total_battery_energy), ' kWh']);
disp(['Mean Total Import Energy: ',
num2str(mean_total_import_energy), ' kWh']);
disp(['Mean Total Export Energy: ',
num2str(mean_total_export_energy), ' kWh']);

VII. MATLAB Simulink Model

The model you described is a common approach to battery modeling and
simulation, particularly in the context of dynamic systems analysis using software
tools like MATLAB/Simulink. Current capacity refers to the maximum amount of
current that a battery can deliver under specified conditions. It is an important
parameter in battery modeling as it influences the battery's performance and
determines its ability to supply power to a load. SOC represents the amount of charge
remaining in the battery relative to its full capacity. It is typically expressed as a
percentage, with 100% SOC indicating a fully charged battery and 0% SOC
indicating a fully discharged battery. SOC is a key parameter in battery management
systems, as it provides information about the available energy in the battery and helps
optimize charging and discharging strategies. Temperature affects the performance
and lifespan of batteries. High temperatures can accelerate chemical reactions within
the battery, leading to increased self-discharge rates and reduced capacity.
Conversely, low temperatures can decrease battery efficiency and capacity.
Temperature monitoring and control are essential for optimizing battery performance
and ensuring safe operation. The battery model consists of a controllable voltage
source (representing the battery's electromotive force) in series with a resistance
(representing internal resistance losses). This simple equivalent circuit model captures
the dynamic behavior of the battery during the charging and discharging processes.
MATLAB/Simulink provides a versatile platform for modeling and simulating
dynamic systems, including battery systems. The battery model described can be
implemented using Simulink blocks to simulate the behavior of the battery under
different operating conditions and load profiles. This allows engineers to analyze the
performance of the battery, optimize control strategies, and design battery
management systems. Battery modeling and simulation play a crucial role in the
design, optimization, and control of battery systems for various applications,
including renewable energy integration, electric vehicles, and grid-scale energy
storage. The model described provides a simplified yet effective representation of
battery behavior, allowing engineers to gain insights into battery performance and
improve system efficiency and reliability. Creating a battery model in Simulink
involves defining the behavior of the battery, such as its charge and discharge

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characteristics, and implementing it using appropriate blocks. Here in below the
MATLAB code presented to create a basic battery model in Simulink:
% Define battery parameters
battery_capacity = 100; % Battery capacity (Ah)
battery_voltage = 12; % Nominal battery voltage (V)

% Create Simulink model

model = 'battery_model';
open_system(new_system(model));

% Add input signals

add_block('simulink/Sources/Step', [model '/Charging
Current']);
add_block('simulink/Sources/Step', [model '/Discharging
Current']);
add_line(model, 'Charging Current/1', 'Battery Model/1');
add_line(model, 'Discharging Current/1', 'Battery Model/2');

% Add battery model

add_block('simulink/Continuous/Integrator', [model '/Battery
Model']);
set_param([model '/Battery Model'], 'InitialCondition',
'battery_capacity');

% Add battery discharge resistor

add_block('simulink/Commonly Used Blocks/Resistor', [model
'/Discharge Resistor']);
set_param([model '/Discharge Resistor'], 'Resistance',
num2str(battery_voltage));

% Connect blocks
add_line(model, 'Battery Model/1', 'Discharge Resistor/1');

% Set simulation parameters

set_param(model, 'StopTime', '10');

% Run simulation
sim(model);

% Plot results
plot(ans.time, ans.battery_model);
xlabel('Time (s)');
ylabel('Battery Charge (Ah)');
title('Battery Model Simulation');

The MATLAB battery model illustrated in figure below 8. The codes generated
above represents the input to the microgrid from BESS.

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Fig. 8. Simulink Battery Model

The MATLAB model for a photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy system with battery
energy storage (BESS) is designed by integrating the models for each component and
developing control algorithms to manage energy flow within the system. Below, the
code structure and key components of a microgrid are presented.
• Define System Parameters: Define parameters such as PV panel
specifications (area, efficiency), wind turbine specifications (rated power,
rotor diameter), battery specifications (capacity, efficiency), load profiles,
and environmental conditions (solar irradiance, wind speed).
% Define system parameters
PV_area = ...; % Area of PV panels (m^2)
PV_efficiency = ...; % Efficiency of PV panels
Wind_turbine_rating = ...; % Rated power of wind turbine (kW)
Wind_turbine_diameter = ...; % Rotor diameter of wind turbine
(m)
Battery_capacity = ...; % Capacity of battery (kWh)

• Model Photovoltaic (PV) System: Implement a model to simulate the power

output of the PV system based on solar irradiance and temperature.
% PV model
solar_irradiance = ...; % Solar irradiance (W/m^2)
temperature = ...; % Temperature (°C)
PV_power_output = PV_area * PV_efficiency * solar_irradiance;

• Model Wind Turbine: Develop a model to simulate the power output of the
wind turbine based on wind speed and turbine characteristics.
% Wind turbine model
wind_speed = ...; % Wind speed (m/s)

if wind_speed >= cut_in_speed && wind_speed <= rated_speed

Wind_power_output = 0.5 * air_density * pi *
Wind_turbine_diameter^2 * wind_speed^3; % Wind power output (W)
elseif wind_speed > rated_speed && wind_speed <= cut_out_speed
Wind_power_output = Wind_turbine_rating; % Rated power
output (W)
else
Wind_power_output = 0; % No power output
end

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• Model Battery Energy Storage System (BESS): Implement a model to
simulate the charging and discharging behavior of the battery based on
energy flow and battery characteristics.
% Battery model
battery_charge = ...; % Battery charge status (kWh)

if battery_charge < Battery_capacity && excess_power > 0

battery_charge = min(battery_charge + excess_power *
efficiency_charge, Battery_capacity); % Charge battery
elseif battery_charge > 0 && load_demand > 0
battery_discharge = min(load_demand, battery_charge *
efficiency_discharge); % Discharge battery
battery_charge = max(battery_charge - battery_discharge,
0); % Update battery charge
end
• Control Algorithms: Develop control algorithms to manage
energy flow within the system, prioritize energy sources,
and optimize battery usage.
% Control algorithm
if PV_power_output >= load_demand
excess_power = PV_power_output - load_demand; % Excess
power from PV
% Battery charge/discharge control
elseif Wind_power_output >= load_demand
excess_power = Wind_power_output - load_demand; % Excess
power from wind turbine
% Battery charge/discharge control
else
% Insufficient power from renewable sources, rely on
battery or grid
end
• Simulation and Analysis: Simulate the behavior of the PV-wind-BESS system over
time and analyze performance metrics such as energy generation, battery state of
charge, and system efficiency.
% Simulation loop
for t = 1:num_time_steps
% Update environmental conditions (solar irradiance, wind
speed)
% Update load demand
% Run control algorithms
% Update battery charge status
% Calculate energy generation from PV and wind
% Calculate total power output and energy balance
% Store simulation results
end

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This is a simplified outline of the code structure for designing a MATLAB model for
a PV-wind-BESS system. Creating a MATLAB Simulink model for a PV-Wind-
BESS (Battery Energy Storage System) system involves integrating the components
of each energy source (PV and wind), the battery storage system, and the associated
control algorithms. To construct a MATLAB Simulink model for a PV-Wind-BESS
model, the following parameters and characteristics of each component in the system
are taken into consideration. Based on the provided description, here are the
parameters and their corresponding values for the microgrid system:
Table 2: Microgrid Specification
PV Rated power: 20 kW
Daily use per day: 82.25 kWh
Wind Installed power: 5 kW
Daily use per day: 45.32 kWh
BESS Usable energy: 60 kWh
Nominal power: 20 kW
Microgrid System Frequency (𝑓𝐻𝑆): 50 Hz
Minimum BESS State of Charge (𝑆𝑂𝐶𝐿𝑜𝑤): 10%
Simulation Time (𝑡𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑝): 60 s
Maximum BESS State of Charge (𝑆𝑂𝐶𝐿𝑜𝑤): 90%
Main BESS: yes
Load Installed load: 15 kW
Daily power demand: 127.57 kWh

These parameters define the characteristics and constraints of the microgrid system,
including the power ratings of the generators and storage devices, operating
frequencies, voltage levels, and battery state of charge limits. They are essential for
modeling and simulating the behavior of the microgrid under various operating
conditions. Figure 9 shown below illustrates the MATLAB Simulink Model of PV-
Wind-BESS Model.

Fig. 9. MATLAB Simulink Model of PV-Wind-BESS Model

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VIII. Simulation Results and Analysis
The three types of Monte Carlo simulation techniques, namely sequential,
non-sequential, and pseudo-sequential are implemented in the microgrid to predict
maximum energy efficient management from PV-Wind and BESS-based microgrid.

Fig. 10. Operation results of sequential Monte Carlo simulation: (a) Extracted Power
from Microgrid; (b) Transfer of Power from Grid to Firm; and (c) SoC of BESS

Fig. 11. Operation results of non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation: (a) Extracted
Power from Microgrid; (b) Transfer of Power from Grid to Firm; and (c) SoC of
BESS

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Fig. 12. Operation results of pseudo sequential Monte Carlo simulation: (a) Extracted
Power from Microgrid; (b) Transfer of Power from Grid to Firm; and (c) SoC of BESS

Fig. 13. DC bus voltage

Fig. 14. Hybrid system frequency

Fig. 15. Photovoltaic system output

Fig. 16. Power analysis of battery energy storage system

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Fig. 17. Total generation of hybrid microgrid

Fig. 18. Battery SOC (%)

Fig. 19. Comparison of DC bus voltages using various control techniques

Fig. 20. Comparison of frequency stabilization using various control techniques

Fig. 21. Comparison of state of charge (SOC)

Microgrid numerical result analysis using MATLAB:

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% Define the stages and variables
stages = {'Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation', 'Non-Sequential
Monte Carlo Simulation', 'Pseudo Sequential Monte Carlo
Simulation'};
variables = {'Electricity purchased (kWh)', 'Electricity sold
(kWh)', 'Net profit (₹)', 'Battery Charging Ah'};
% Data for each variable and stage
data = [
% Electricity purchased (kWh)
0.00 235.45 0.00 16.20 35.20 17.13;
0.00 221.30 0.00 33.45 54.60 29.35;
0.00 216.20 0.00 33.40 52.55 42.975;
% Electricity sold (kWh)
11.50 123.65 36.35 82.25 86.55 68.38;
0.52 139.25 21.25 40.65 50.25 37.38;
0.41 134.45 26.24 43.20 80.10 49.85;
% Net profit (₹)
11.50 -111.80 36.35 66.05 51.35 51.25;
0.52 -82.05 21.25 7.20 -4.35 8.03;
0.41 81.75 26.24 9.80 27.55 6.88;
% Battery Charging Ah
450.10 998.09 490.12 570.35 652.75 571.07;
450.10 998.09 494.12 570.15 656.85 573.71;
450.10 998.09 492.14 570.04 650.16 570.78
];
% Display the data
disp('MATLAB code for generating Microgrid Variables:');
for i = 1:size(variables, 2)
disp(['%% ' variables{i}]);
for j = 1:size(stages, 2)
disp([stages{j} ' = [' num2str(data((i-1)*size(stages,
2)+j, :)) '];']);
end
disp(' ');
end

Table 3: Output results using various Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques

Microgrid Stages Minimum Maximum 1st 2nd 3rd Average
Variables Quarter Quarter Quarter
Electricity Sequential 0.00 235.45 0.00 16.20 35.20 17.13
purchased Monte
(kWh) Carlo
Simulation
Non- 0.00 221.30 0.00 33.45 54.60 29.35
Sequential
Monte
Carlo
Simulation
Pseudo 0.00 216.20 0.00 33.40 52.55 42.975
Sequential
Monte

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Carlo
Simulation
Electricity Sequential 11.50 123.65 36.35 82.25 86.55 68.38
sold Monte
(kWh) Carlo
Simulation
Non- 0.52 139.25 21.25 40.65 50.25 37.38
Sequential
Monte
Carlo
Simulation
Pseudo 0.41 134.45 26.24 43.20 80.10 49.85
Sequential
Monte
Carlo
Simulation
Net profit Sequential 11.50 -111.80 36.35 66.05 51.35 51.25
(₹) Monte
Carlo
Simulation
Non- 0.52 -82.05 21.25 7.20 -4.35 8.03
Sequential
Monte
Carlo
Simulation
Pseudo 0.41 81.75 26.24 9.80 27.55 6.88
Sequential
Monte
Carlo
Simulation
Battery Sequential 450.10 998.09 490.12 570.35 652.75 571.07
Charging Monte
Ah Carlo
Simulation
Non- 450.10 998.09 494.12 570.15 656.85 573.71
Sequential
Monte
Carlo
Simulation
Pseudo 450.10 998.09 492.14 570.04 650.16 570.78
Sequential
Monte
Carlo
Simulation

This study presents comparative outcomes of Monte Carlo simulation techniques

applied to microgrid operations, analyzing key variables including electricity
transactions, profitability, and battery capacity. Three simulation methods Sequential
Monte Carlo, Non-Sequential Monte Carlo, and Pseudo Sequential Monte Carlo are
evaluated. These findings provide insights into the variability and central tendencies

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of microgrid performance under different simulation approaches, aiding in strategic
decision-making for sustainable energy management and economic viability. Table
no. 5 compares the outcomes of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), Non-Sequential
Monte Carlo (NSMC), and Pseudo Sequential Monte Carlo (PSMC) simulations
across several key metrics in a hybrid PV-Wind-Battery storage microgrid. The key
findings of this study reveal that for electricity purchased (kWh), the Sequential
Monte Carlo Simulation (SMCS) showed a minimum of 0.00, a maximum of 235.45,
with quartile values at 0.00, 16.20, and 35.20, and an average of 17.13; the Non-
Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (NSMCS) displayed a range of 0.00 to 221.30,
quartiles at 0.00, 33.45, and 54.60, and an average of 29.35; the Pseudo Sequential
Monte Carlo Simulation (PSMCS) indicated a range of 0.00 to 216.20, quartiles at
0.00, 33.40, and 52.55, with an average of 42.975. For electricity sold (kWh), SMCS
recorded a minimum of 11.50, maximum of 123.65, with quartile values at 36.35,
82.25, and 86.55, and an average of 68.38; NSMCS showed a range of 0.52 to
139.25, quartiles at 21.25, 40.65, and 50.25, and an average of 37.38; PSMCS
recorded a range of 0.41 to 134.45, quartiles at 26.24, 43.20, and 80.10, and an
average of 49.85. For net profit (₹), SMCS had a range from 11.50 to -111.80, with
quartiles at 36.35, 66.05, and 51.35, and an average of 51.25; NSMCS recorded a
range from 0.52 to -82.05, quartiles at 21.25, 7.20, and -4.35, with an average of 8.03;
PSMCS showed a range from 0.41 to 81.75, quartiles at 26.24, 9.80, and 27.55, and
an average of 6.88. For battery charging (Ah), SMCS showed a range from 450.10 to
998.09, quartiles at 490.12, 570.35, and 652.75, with an average of 571.07; NSMCS
recorded a range from 450.10 to 998.09, quartiles at 494.12, 570.15, and 656.85, and
an average of 573.71; PSMCS displayed a range from 450.10 to 998.09, quartiles at
492.14, 570.04, and 650.16, with an average of 570.78. The application of various
Monte Carlo simulation techniques provides a comprehensive understanding of
microgrid performance under different scenarios. Each technique offers unique
insights into the variability and stability of the microgrid variables, aiding in the
optimization of energy management systems. The results highlight significant
differences in the output variables, emphasizing the importance of choosing
appropriate simulation methods for accurate performance assessment. Based on the
average net profit results, the research microgrid system demonstrates profitability,
especially when employing the Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation technique. The
other two methods yield slightly lower but still positive average net profits,
suggesting overall profitability across a range of simulation scenarios.
IX. Conclusion
The research describes the development of a robust and reliable
frequency/voltage stabilization and energy management system for a hybrid
microgrid. The study aims to address key issues related to control and management,
including fast reference tracking and convergence, high global stability, zero
overshoot, and efficient utilization of available resources. This is achieved through
the implementation of nonlinear adaptive dynamic programming, a technique that
iteratively updates control information without requiring prior identification of the
system's dynamic response. This study employs Monte Carlo simulation techniques to
optimize energy management in a hybrid PV-Wind-Battery storage microgrid.
Results across Sequential Monte Carlo, Non-Sequential Monte Carlo, and Pseudo
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 J. Mech. Cont.& Math. Sci., Vol.-19, No.-12, December (2024) pp 224-255
Sequential Monte Carlo simulations reveal significant variations in key metrics.
Based on the average net profit values, the research microgrid system appears to be
profitable, particularly when using the Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation technique.
The other two techniques show lower but still positive average net profits, indicating
that the system is generally profitable under various simulation scenarios. These
findings underscore the efficacy of Monte Carlo optimization in enhancing microgrid
performance, providing insights crucial for sustainable energy management and
decision-making in renewable energy systems. Additionally, the optimization of load
requirements by renewable resources is explored, eliminating the need for external
energy management systems. Convergence analysis demonstrates the system's ability
to track reference values even with fluctuations in load, ensuring overall system
stability. The robust response of the system helps maintain system frequency and DC
voltages at desired levels, with deviations remaining within acceptable ranges.
Comparative analysis with existing techniques confirms that the proposed system
successfully achieves its objectives for the efficient operation of the hybrid microgrid.
Overall, the study presents a comprehensive solution to enhance stability, efficiency,
and reliability in microgrid management through innovative control and management
strategies.
VI. Acknowledgements
The author heartfelt gratitude to Dr. Praveen B. M., Director, College of
Engineering and Technology, Srinivas University, Mangalore, for his invaluable
guidance and support; Dr. S. R. Barkunan, Associate Professor, Vel Tech Rangarajan
Dr. Sagunthala R&D Institute of Science & Technology, Chennai, for his insightful
suggestions; Dr. A.V.G.A. Marthanda, Associate Professor, Lakireddy Balireddy
College of Engineering, Mylavaram, Andhra Pradesh, for his constant
encouragement; Dr. NMG Kumar, Assistant Professor, Mohan Babu University, Sree
Vidyanikethan Engineering College, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh, for his constructive
feedback; and Dr. S. Kaliappan, Assistant Professor, Kumaraguru College of
Technology, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, for his critical review. Special thanks to the
Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of College of Engineering and Technology, Srinivas
University, Mangalore, for leading the research with exceptional dedication. Their
collective efforts have significantly enriched this work.

Conflicts of interest
All authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

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