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Effects of Climate Change on Birds 1st Edition Anders
Pape Møller Digital Instant Download
Author(s): Anders Pape Møller, Wolfgang Fiedler, Peter Berthold 8eds.)
ISBN(s): 9780199569748, 0199569746
Edition: 1
File Details: PDF, 3.97 MB
Year: 2010
Language: english
Effects of Climate Change on Birds
This page intentionally left blank
Effects of Climate
Change on Birds
EDITED BY

Anders Pape Møller

Université Paris-Sud XI, France
and
Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Norway

Wolfgang Fiedler
Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Germany

and

Peter Berthold
Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Germany

1
3
Great Clarendon Street, Oxford ox2 6dp
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Data available
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Effects of climate change on birds / edited by Anders Pape Møller, Wolfgang Fiedler, and Peter Berthold.
p. cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 978-0-19-956975-5 — ISBN 978-0-19-956974-8
1. Birds—Climatic factors. 2. Birds—Ecology. 3. Birds—Conservation.
I. Møller, A. P. (Anders Pape) II. Fiedler, Wolfgang. III. Berthold, P. (Peter), 1939–
QL698.95.E34 2010
598.172'2—dc22 2010019283

Typeset by SPI Publisher Services, Pondicherry, India

Printed in Great Britain
on acid-free paper by
CPI Antony Rowe Chippenham, Wiltshire

ISBN 978–0–19–956974–8 (Hbk.)

978–0–19–956975–5 (Pbk.)

1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2
 Preface

This volume on the biological consequences of cli- We would like to thank I. Sherman and H. Eaton
mate change in a particular class of animals, the from Oxford University Press for their help and sup-
birds, grew out of a long-term interest in the conse- port. Many of the authors of chapters in this volume
quences of changing environmental conditions for acted as reviewers providing constructive ways of
all living beings. Since the seminal paper published improving the book. Many other experts also contrib-
by one of us (Peter Berthold) in 1991, this field has uted, among these M. Frederiksen, P. Gienapp, M. D.
grown tremendously in importance. The number of Jennions, S. Jenouvrier, H. Kokko, O. Gordo,
papers dealing with climate change and birds is now S. Morand, J. Nichols, T. Pärt, D. Rubolini, C. Teplitsky,
more than 2800, and the total number of papers in D. Thieltges, P. Tryjanowski, C. C. Wilmers, N. Yoccoz,
this field exceeds 68,000. No single person can thus and B. Zuckerberg. We gratefully acknowledge their
attempt to cover this rapidly expanding area. Hence, help. All errors remain our responsibility.
we have opted for an edited volume that brings APM would like to thank the CNRS and the
together world experts to review the current level of Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters for
knowledge, while simultaneously listing alternative support while editing this book.
hypotheses and weak points in current research. We Anders Pape Møller, Wolfgang Fiedler, and Peter
strongly believe that this is the way forward. Berthold, November 2009

v
 Editorial Acknowledgements

Anders Pape Møller – I would like to thank the CNRS and the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters
for support while editing this book.
Wolfgang Fiedler – I would like to thank the Max Planck Society for support while editing this book.
Peter Berthold – I would like to thank the Max Planck Society for support while editing this book.
Contents

List of contributors ix

Section 1 Introduction

1 Introduction 3
Anders Pape Møller, Wolfgang Fiedler, and Peter Berthold

Section 2 Climate

2 Climate change 9
James W. Hurell and Kevin E. Trenberth

Section 3 Methods for studying climate change effects

3 Long-term time series of ornithological data 33

Anders Pape Møller and Wolfgang Fiedler

4 Capture–mark–recapture models 39
Vladimir Grosbois and Olivier Gimenez

5 Using animal models to infer and predict the evolutionary

consequences of climate change 47
Erik Postma
6 Time-series analyses 57
Jan Lindström and Mads C. Forchhammer

7 Population analyses 67
Bernt-Erik Sæther and Steinar Engen

8 Habitat suitability modelling 77

Wilfried Thuiller and Tamara Münkemüller

Section 4 Biological consequences of climate change

9 Changes in migration 89
Esa Lehikoinen and Tim H. Sparks

10 Effects of climate change on timing of breeding and

reproductive success in birds 113
Peter O. Dunn and David W. Winkler

vii
viii CONTENTS

11 Food availability, mistiming, and climatic change 129

Christiaan Both

12 Genetic perspectives on the evolutionary consequences

of climate change in birds 149
Ben C. Sheldon

13 Sexual selection and climate change 169

Claire N. Spottiswoode and Nicola Saino

14 Population consequences of climate change 191

Bernt-Erik Sæther and Steinar Engen

15 Host–parasite interactions and climate change 213

Santiago Merino and Anders Pape Møller

16 Predator–prey interactions and climate change 227

Vincent Bretagnolle and Hanneke Gillis

17 Range margins, climate change, and ecology 249

Jon E. Brommer and Anders Pape Møller

18 Bird communities and climate change 275

Lluís Brotons and Frédéric Jiguet

19 Conservation consequences of climate change for birds 295

Abraham J. Miller-Rushing, Richard B. Primack, and Cagan H. Sekercioglu

20 Conclusions 311
Anders Pape Møller, Wolfgang Fiedler, and Peter Berthold

Index 315
 Contributors

Peter Berthold, Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Hanneke Gillis, Centre d’Etudes Biologiques de Chizé,
Vogelwarte Radolfzell, Schlossallee 2, D-78315 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique,
Radolfzell, Germany F-79360 Beauvoir sur Niort, France
[email protected] [email protected]
Christiaan Both, Animal Ecology Group, Centre for Olivier Gimenez, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et
Ecological and Evolutionary Studies, University of Evolutive, campus CNRS, UMR 5175, 1919 Route de
Groningen, PO Box 14, NL-9750 AA Haren, Mende, F-34293 Montpellier Cédex 5, France
The Netherlands [email protected]
[email protected] Vladimir Grosbois, CIRAD, UR AGIRs- Animal et
Vincent Bretagnolle, Centre d’Etudes Biologiques de Gestion Intégrée des Risques, TA C 22/E Campus
Chizé, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, International Baillarguet, F-34398 Montpellier Cedex
F-79360 Beauvoir sur Niort, France 5, France
[email protected] [email protected]
Jon E. Brommer, Bird Ecology Unit, Department of James W. Hurrell, National Center for Atmospheric
Biological and Environmental Sciences, PO Box 65 Research, Climate Analysis Section, P.O. Box 3000,
(Viikinkaari 1), FIN–00014 University of Helsinki, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
Finland [email protected]
[email protected] Frédéric Jiguet, Museum National d’Histoire Naturel,
Lluís Brotons, Àrea de Biodiversitat, Centre TecnolÒgic CNRS, UPMC, UMR 5173, Centre de la Recherche de
Forestal de Catalunya, Ctra. St Llorenc km 2, E-25280 la Biologie des Populations des Oiseaux, CP 51, 55
Solsona, Catalonia, Spain Rue Buffon, F-75005 Paris, France
[email protected] [email protected]
Peter O. Dunn, Department of Biological Sciences, Esa Lehikoinen, Department of Biology, University of
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, P.O. Box 413, Turku, FIN-20014 Turku, Finland
Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA [email protected]
[email protected] Jan Lindström, Graham Kerr Building, Division of
Steinar Engen, Centre for Conservation Biology, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian Biomedical and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow,
University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
Trondheim, Norway [email protected]
[email protected] Santiago Merino, Museo Nacional de Ciencias
Wolfgang Fiedler, Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones
Vogelwarte Radolfzell, Schlossallee 2, D-78315 Científicas, José Gutiérrez Abascal 2, E-28006
Radolfzell, Germany Madrid, Spain
[email protected] [email protected]
Mads C. Forchhammer, Department of Arctic Abraham J. Miller-Rushing, USA National Phenology
Environment, Natural Environment Research Institute, Network, 1955 E 6th St, Tucson, AZ 85719, USA, and
Aarhus University, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark The Wildlife Society, Bethesda, MD, USA
[email protected] [email protected]
X C O N T R I B U TO R S

Anders Pape Møller, Laboratoire Ecologie, Systematique Cagan H. Sekercioglu, Department of Biological
et Evolution, UMR 8079 CNRS-Université Paris-Sud Sciences, Centre for Conservation Biology, Stanford
XI-AgroParisTech, Batiment 362 Université Paris-Sud University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
XI, F-91405 Orsay Cedex, France, and Centre for [email protected]
Advanced Study, Norwegian Academy of Science Ben C. Sheldon, Edward Grey Institute, Department of
and Letters, Drammensveien 78, N-0271 Oslo, Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road,
Norway Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
[email protected] [email protected]
Tamara Münkemüller, Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, Tim H. Sparks, Institute of Zoology, Poznań University
UMR-CNRS 5553, Université J. Fourier, BP 53, of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego HC, PL-60-625
F-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France Poznań, Poland
[email protected] [email protected]
Erik Postma, Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Claire N. Spottiswoode, Department of Zoology,
Environmental Studies, University of Zürich, University of Cambridge, Downing Street,
Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8055 Zürich, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
Switzerland, and Netherlands Institute of Ecology [email protected]
(NIOO-KNAW), Centre for Terrestrial Ecology, P.O. Wilfried Thuiller, Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine,
Box 40, NL-6666 ZG Heteren, The Netherlands UMR-CNRS 5553, Université J. Fourier, BP 53,
[email protected] F-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France
Richard B. Primack, Department of Biology, Boston [email protected]
University, 5 Cummington Street, Boston, MA 02215, Kevin E. Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric
USA Research, Climate Analysis Section, PO Box 3000,
[email protected] Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
Nicola Saino, Dipartimento di Biologia, Università degli [email protected]
Studi di Milano, via Celoria 26, I-20133 Milano, Italy David. W. Winkler, Museum of Vertebrates,
[email protected] Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA,
Bernt-Erik Sæther, Centre for Conservation Biology, and Department of Ecology and
Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University,
Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
[email protected] [email protected]
SECTION 1
Introduction
This page intentionally left blank
 CHAPTER 1

Introduction
Anders Pape Møller, Wolfgang Fielder, and Peter Berthold

No other field in evolutionary biology and ecology from agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, which are
has gained so much public attention in recent years the other big anthropogenic environmental factors.
as research on the consequences of climate change All these findings indicate that the time of simple
for plants and animals. Besides satisfying curiosity correlations between temperature and a biological
of people about the future, decision makers request trait will soon be gone. To make progress in under-
forecasts and advice on how to adapt strategies in standing underlying mechanisms in this complex
conservation, agriculture, forestry, health care, eco- framework, we need suitable model species that
nomics, and many other areas. Scenarios for and show variable and observable reactions and adap-
observed patterns of climate change for the biolo- tations to environmental change, and model sys-
gist often constitute fundamental changes in the tems that are easy to study and are already
environment of free-living organisms. A central connected to a profound base of knowledge about
question in evolution concerns adaptation of organ- basic biology.
isms to their environment: What can be more chal- Birds are highly mobile and easy to observe. They
lenging than studying the reactions and adaptations are relatively easy to recognize, and their occur-
of plants and animals when their environment rence and habits are the interest and focus of mil-
changes? lions of passionate birdwatchers or just interested
Temperature is currently changing at a dramatic laymen. It is not surprising that changes in abun-
rate, and it will change even more during the com- dance or behaviour of birds presumably resulting
ing century. While climate change scenarios ini- from climate change are among the best docu-
tially were uncertain, and a number of different mented changes reported in the animal world.
possible outcomes were presented by the IPCC Furthermore, our knowledge about the biology of
(2007a,b), recent assessments suggest that changes birds is probably better than that of any other class
deteriorate with current trends following worst- of animals. Finally, an amazing array of novel
case scenarios rather than many possible scenarios technologies and approaches in many different
that were originally considered possible or even fields—from tracking devices through large-scale
likely (IPCC, 2001). Climate change models predict monitoring schemes and the development of large
that while certain areas will be subject to increasing databases to advances in molecular genetics and the
temperatures, others will experience decreasing availability of powerful statistics—provides scien-
temperatures, and changes in precipitation will tists with useful tools and possibilities for perform-
cause a much greater impact than changes in tem- ing comprehensive and integrative research on the
perature in yet other regions. Overall, the patterns effects of climate change and thereby evolutionary
of climatic change are and will be complex. biology in general.
Furthermore, climate change is not acting on its In this book we assess our current knowledge
own but is likely to interact with effects resulting basis of already observed changes, and the causes

3
4 E F F E C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E O N B I R D S

and consequences of such climatic change for Christiaan Both reviews the literature on mistiming
migratory and resident birds in terms of behaviour, of reproduction relative to phenology of prey, pred-
physiology, genetics, ecology, and evolution, i.e. ators, and organisms at other trophic levels. Ben
covering all levels of ecological and evolutionary Sheldon reviews the as yet meagre evidence of
analysis. Furthermore, we emphasize ways in which micro-evolutionary response to climate change in
these important questions can be documented and Chapter 12. Claire Spottiswoode and Nicola Saino
investigated in years to come. assess to what extent climate change has affected
Our current knowledge of the consequences of cli- arrival date of males and females differently, and
mate change is mainly biased towards a few well- whether climate directly affects mate choice and
studied species and sites in the temperate zone. competition for mates in Chapter 13. Bernt-Erik
Clearly, we cannot generalize the effects of climate Sæther and Steinar Engen review the population
change (or any other subject) beyond the basis for our consequences of climate change in Chapter 14. In
knowledge in research, neither spatially nor tempo- Chapter 15, Santiago Merino and Anders Møller
rally. This fact should not be used for inaction or lack analyse data on changing impact of parasites on
of research effort, but should rather constitute yet their avian hosts. Vincent Bretagnolle and Hanneke
another reason for conducting even more research. Gillis provide an extensive overview of predator–
This book consists of three parts. In the first part, prey interactions in relation to climate change in
James Hurrell and Kevin Trenberth present a gen- Chapter 16. In Chapter 17, Jon Brommer and Anders
eral introduction to climate and climate change Møller analyse change in distribution ranges in
(Chapter 2). In the second part, six chapters outline response to changing climatic conditions. Lluís
the databases and the methods that can be used to Brotons and Frédéric Jiguet review effects of climate
study effects of climate change. In Chapter 3, Anders change on communities of birds in Chapter 18.
Møller and Wolfgang Fiedler provide a general Finally, in Chapter 19, Richard Primack, Abraham
overview of the biological databases suitable for Miller-Rushing, and Cagan Sekercioglu evaluate
studying the effects of climate change. In Chapter 4, the conservation consequences of climate change,
Vladimir Grosbois and Olivier Gimenez provide an but also propose ways to remediate such effects.
overview of capture–mark–recapture analyses for The concluding chapter, Chapter 20, contains a
estimating climate change effects on demographic broad overview of open major questions and ways
traits and other parameters. In Chapter 5, Erik to address these issues.
Postma presents the software used for estimating The synthesis approach of this volume to climate
quantitative genetic parameters for studying envi- change and its effects on birds should help inter-
ronmental and micro-evolutionary effects. In ested amateurs, students, and professional scien-
Chapter 6, Jan Lindström and Mads Forchammer tists to approach this area of research with the best
review time series analysis as a tool for investigat- possible tools, and also to envision and identify
ing climate change effects. In Chapter 7, Bernt-Erik areas where further research is particularly required.
Sæther and Steinar Engen provide an overview of Some of the chapters are short and based on rela-
population ecological methods. Finally, in Chapter tively little knowledge, while others are long and
8, Wilfried Thuiller and Tamara Münkemüller well researched. These differences reflect differ-
present habitat suitability models used for predict- ences in our current knowledge base, but we expect
ing range changes in response to climate. such unevenness in research to be rectified during
The third and largest part of the book consists of the next decade.
11 chapters that review our current knowledge of No other field of scientific inquiry into the bio-
different aspects of avian biology in relation to logical sciences is currently of greater significance
climate change. In Chapter 9, Esa Lehikoinen and than an understanding of the consequences of cli-
Tim Sparks review information on climate change mate change for all living beings, including humans.
effects on bird migration. Peter Dunn and David We strongly believe that both amateurs and profes-
Winkler assess evidence on climate effects on laying sional scientists can contribute to a better under-
date and other life history traits. In Chapter 11, standing of these consequences through detailed
 INTRODUCTION 5

study of free-living organisms. Birds are particu- 1.1 References

larly likely to contribute disproportionately to this
IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001. Cambridge University
knowledge base because virtually hundreds of
Press, Cambridge.
thousands of amateurs and professionals have cre-
IPCC (2007a) The physical science basis. In S. Solomon
ated and maintained the long-term databases that
et al., eds, Climate Change 2007. Cambridge University
form the basis on which any scientific knowledge Press, Cambridge.
rests. We hope that this book will help to educate IPCC (2007b) Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In
and inspire the next generation of ornithologists to M.L. Parry et al., eds, Climate Change 2007. Cambridge
continue this work. University Press, Cambridge.
This page intentionally left blank
SECTION 2
Climate
This page intentionally left blank
 CHAPTER 2

Climate change
James W. Hurrell1 and Kevin E. Trenberth

planning of many organizations and governments.

2.1 Introduction
Global warming does not imply, however, that future
Global climate change is significantly altering the changes in weather and climate will be uniform
structure and functioning of many ecosystems and, around the globe. The land, for instance, is warming
consequently, temporal and spatial patterns of pop- faster than the oceans, consistent with its smaller
ulation and species abundance (e.g. Stenseth et al., heat capacity. Moreover, uncertainties remain regard-
2005; Rosenzweig et al., 2008). Significant advances ing how climate will change at regional and local
in the scientific understanding of climate change scales where the signal of natural variability is large,
now make it clear that there has been a change in especially over the next several decades (Hawkins
climate that goes beyond the range of natural vari- and Sutton, 2009). Regional differences in land and
ability. As stated in the Fourth Assessment Report ocean temperatures arise, for instance, from natural
(AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate variability such as El Niño Southern Oscillation
Change (IPCC), the warming of the climate system (ENSO) events. Natural variability can result from
is ‘unequivocal’ and it is ‘very likely due to human purely internal atmospheric processes as well as
activities’. The culprit is the astonishing rate at from interactions among the different components of
which greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are the climate system, such as those between the atmos-
increasing in the atmosphere, mostly through the phere and ocean, or the atmosphere and land.
burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use, such El Niño events produce very strong warming
as those associated with agriculture and deforesta- of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean,
tion. GHGs are relatively transparent to incoming while the ocean cools over portions of the subtrop-
solar radiation while they absorb and reemit outgo- ics and the tropical western Pacific. Over the
ing infrared radiation. The result is that more energy Atlantic, average basin-wide warming is imposed
stays in the global climate system, not only raising on top of strong, natural variability on multi-dec-
temperature but also producing many other direct adal time scales, called the Atlantic multi-decadal
and indirect changes in the climate system. oscillation (AMO). The level of natural variability,
The indisputable evidence of anthropogenic cli- in contrast, is relatively small over the tropical
mate change, and the knowledge that global climate Indian Ocean, where surface warming has been
change will continue well into the future under any steady and large over recent decades. Importantly,
plausible emission scenario, is now a factor in the these differences in regional rates of sea surface

1
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, find-
ings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily
reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

9
10 E F F E C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E O N B I R D S

temperature (SST) change perturb the atmospheric climate. The physical evidence and the impacts on the
circulation and shift storm tracks, so that some land environment and society, as documented in the AR4
regions become warmer and drier, while other (IPCC, 2007a,b), provide the main basis and reference
regions cool as they become wetter. It is clear, there- for the chapter, although the material is updated
fore, that on the regional scales on which most plan- where appropriate.
ning decisions are made and impacts felt, future
warming will not be smooth. Instead, it will be
2.2 Human and natural drivers
strongly modulated by natural climate variations,
of climate change
and especially those driven by the slowly varying
oceans on a time scale of decades. This non-uni- The AR4 of IPCC (2007a) concluded that most of the
formity of change highlights the challenges of observed global temperature increase of the past 50
regional climate change that has considerable spa- years (Figure 2.1) is ‘very likely’2 due to human
tial structure and temporal variability. activity, while anthropogenic forcing has ‘likely’
It is the purpose of this chapter to review observed contributed to changes in wind patterns, affecting
changes in climate, with a focus on changes in surface extratropical storm tracks and regional temperature
climate and on the atmospheric circulation, including patterns in both the Northern and the Southern
variations in major modes of climate variability. Hemispheres (NH and SH). These conclusions are
However, the next section will first describe how nat- based on studies that assess the causes of climate
ural and anthropogenic drivers of climate change are change, taking into account all possible agents of
assessed using climate models. The chapter concludes climate change (forcings), both natural and from
with a brief summary of future-projected changes in human activities.

0.6
60

0.4
Temperature anomaly (°C)

30
CO2 anomaly (ppmv)
0.2

0 0

–0.2
–30

–0.4 Temperature
CO2
–60
–0.6
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year

Figure 2.1 Estimated changes in annual global mean surface temperatures (°C, bars) and CO2 concentrations (thick black line) over the past 149 years
relative to 1961–1990 average values. Carbon dioxide concentrations since 1957 are from direct measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, while earlier
estimates are derived from ice core records. The scale for CO2 concentrations is in parts per million (ppm) by volume, relative to a mean of 333.7 ppm, while
the temperature anomalies are relative to a mean of 14°C. Updated from Trenberth (1997); see also Hurrell (2002) and Karl and Trenberth (2003).

2
The IPCC AR4 defines the term ‘very likely’ as the likelihood of a result exceeding 90%, and the term ‘likely’ as exceed-
ing 66%.
 C L I M AT E C H A N G E 11

Note that forcings are external to the climate sys- aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere, mainly
tem and may arise, for instance, from changes in the through the injection of sulphur dioxide (SO2) from
sun or from changes in atmospheric composition power stations and through biomass burning. A
associated with explosive volcanic eruptions. These direct effect of sulphate aerosols is the reflection of a
phenomena occur naturally. Human activities that fraction of solar radiation back to space, which tends
generate heat or change the atmospheric composi- to cool the Earth’s surface. Other aerosols (like soot)
tion are also external to the climate system but do directly absorb solar radiation, leading to local heat-
not occur naturally. In contrast, many feedbacks ing of the atmosphere, and some absorb and emit
occur through interactions among the components infrared radiation. A further influence of aerosols is
of the climate system: the atmosphere, ocean, land, that many act as nuclei on which cloud droplets con-
and cryosphere. Some amplify the original changes, dense, affecting the number and size of droplets in a
producing a positive feedback, while others dimin- cloud and hence altering the reflection and absorp-
ish them, giving a negative feedback. Feedbacks tion of solar radiation by the cloud and the lifetime of
considerably complicate the climate system, and the cloud (Stevens and Feingold, 2009). The precise
the physical processes involved are depicted in cli- nature of aerosol/cloud interactions and how they
mate models. Radiative forcing is a measure of the interact with the water cycle remains a major uncer-
influence that a factor has in altering the balance of tainty in our understanding of climate processes.
incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth– Because man-made aerosols are mostly introduced
atmosphere system and is an index of the impor- near the Earth’s surface, they are washed out of the
tance of the factor as a potential climate change atmosphere by rain in typically a few days. They
mechanism. Positive forcing tends to warm the sur- thus remain mostly concentrated near their sources
face while negative forcing tends to cool it. and affect climate with a very strong regional pat-
The capability of climate models to simulate the tern, usually producing cooling.
past climate is comprehensively assessed by IPCC. In contrast, GHGs such as CO2 and CH4 have life-
Given good replications of the past, the forcings can times of decades or much longer. As a result, they are
be inserted one by one to disassemble their effects globally mixed and concentrations build up over time.
and allow attribution of the observed climate GHG concentrations in the atmosphere have increased
change to different forcings. Climate models there- markedly as a result of human activities since 1750,
fore are a key tool to evaluate the role of various and they are now higher than at any time in at least
forcings in producing the observed changes in tem- the last 650,000 years. It took at least 10,000 years from
perature and other climate variables. the end of the last ice age (18,000 years ago) for levels
The best climate models encapsulate the current of CO2 to increase 100 parts per million (ppm) by vol-
understanding of the physical processes involved ume to 280 ppm, but that same increase has occurred
in the climate system, the interactions, and the per- over only the past 150 years to current values in excess
formance of the system as a whole. Uncertainties of 385 ppm (Figure 2.1). About half of that increase has
arise, however, from shortcomings in the under- occurred over the last 35 years, owing mainly to com-
standing and how to best represent complex proc- bustion of fossil fuels and changes in land use. The
esses in models. Yet, in spite of these uncertainties, CO2 concentration growth rate was larger during the
today’s best climate models are able to reproduce last decade than it has been since the beginning of con-
the climate of the past century, and simulations of tinuous direct measurements in the late 1950s. In the
the evolution of global surface temperature over the absence of controls, future projections are that the rate
past millennium are consistent with paleoclimate of increase in CO2 amount may accelerate, and con-
reconstructions (IPCC, 2007a). centrations could double from pre-industrial values
As a result, climate modellers are able to test the within the next 50–100 years.
role of various forcings in producing observed Methane is the second most important anthropo-
changes in climate. Human activities increase GHGs, genic GHG. Predominantly because of agriculture
such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous and fossil fuel use, the global atmospheric concen-
oxide (N2O) and other traces gases. They also increase tration of CH4 has increased from a pre-industrial
12 E F F E C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E O N B I R D S

value of 715 part per billion (ppb) by volume to which dominates the total net anthropogenic forc-
1774 ppb in 2005, although growth rates have ing (+1.6 W/m2). The total net anthropogenic forc-
declined since the early 1990s, consistent with total ing includes contributions from aerosols (a negative
emissions (natural and anthropogenic sources) forcing) and several other sources, such as tropo-
being nearly constant over this period. Global N2O spheric ozone and halocarbons.
concentrations have also increased significantly Climate model simulations that account for such
from pre-industrial values. Together, the combined changes in forcings have now reliably shown that
radiative forcing from these three GHGs is +2.3 global surface warming of recent decades is a
Watts per square metre (W/m2), relative to 1750, response to the increased concentrations of GHGs

Europe
Temperature anomaly (ºC)

1.0
North America
Temperature anomaly (ºC)

0.5

1.0 0.0 Asia

Temperature anomaly (ºC)

0.5 1.0
1900 1950 2000
Year
0.0 0.5
Africa
Temperature anomaly (ºC)

1900 1950 2000 0.0

Year 1.0
1900 1950 2000
0.5 Year
South America
Temperature anomaly (ºC)

0.0 Australia
Temperature anomaly (ºC)

1.0
1900 1950 2000 1.0
0.5 Year
0.5
0.0

0.0
1900 1950 2000
Year
1900 1950 2000
Year

Global Global land Global ocean

Temperature anomaly (ºC)

Temperature anomaly (ºC)

Temperature anomaly (ºC)

1.0 1.0 1.0

0.5 0.5 0.5

0.0 0.0 0.0

1900 1950 2000 1900 1950 2000 1900 1950 2000

Year Year Year

Models using only natural forcings Observations

Models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings

Figure 2.2 Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperature with results simulated by climate models using natural
and anthropogenic forcings. Decadal averages of observations are shown for 1906–2005 (black line) plotted against the centre of the decade and relative to
the corresponding average for 1901–1950. Lines are dashed where spatial coverage is less than 50%. Dark shaded bands show the 5–95% range for 19
simulations from five climate models using only the natural forcings due to solar activity and volcanoes. Light shaded bands show the 5–95% range for 58
simulations from 14 climate models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings. The figure is taken from the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I Summary for Policymakers (IPCC, 2007a). See Plate 1.
 C L I M AT E C H A N G E 13

and sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. When the than was available to the TAR. No climate model
models are run without these forcing changes, the that has used natural forcing only has reproduced
remaining natural forcings and intrinsic natural vari- either the observed global mean warming trend or
ability fail to capture the almost linear increase in the continental mean warming trends. Attribution
global surface temperatures over the past 40 years or of temperature change on smaller than continental
so, but when the anthropogenic forcings are included, scales and over time scales of less than 50 years or
the models simulate the observed global tempera- so is more difficult because of the much larger sig-
ture record with impressive fidelity (Figure 2.2). nal of natural variability on smaller space and time
Changes in solar irradiance since 1750 are estimated scales (Hawkins and Sutton, 2009).
to have caused a radiative forcing of +0.12 W/m2,
mainly in the first part of the 20th century. Prior to
1979, when direct observations of the sun from space 2.3 Observed changes in surface climate
began, changes in solar irradiance are more uncer-
2.3.1 Temperature
tain, but direct measurements show that the sun has
not caused warming since 1979. Moreover, the mod- The globe is warming dramatically compared with
els indicate that volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols natural historical rates of change (IPCC, 2007a). Global
have offset some of the additional warming that surface temperatures today are more than 0.75°C
would have resulted from observed increases in warmer than at the beginning of the 20th century, and
GHG concentrations alone. For instance, since about rates of temperature rise are greatest in recent decades
2000 the sunspot cycle went from a maximum to a (Figure 2.1). Over the last 50 years, the rate of warm-
minimum and a very quiet sun, decreasing total solar ing is nearly double that of the 100-year trend, and 12
irradiance by 0.1%. This has contributed a slight cool- of the 14 warmest years in the global surface tempera-
ing component to the planet, perhaps offsetting ture record have occurred since 1995. The period since
about 10–15% of the recent warming. 2001 is ~0.2°C warmer than the 1991–2000 decade.
A significant advancement since the Third Global land regions have warmed the most (0.7°C)
Assessment Report (TAR) of IPCC in 2001 is that a since 1979, with the greatest warming in the boreal
larger number of simulations available from a winter and spring months over the NH continents.
broader range of models allows for a more definitive There is a very high degree of confidence in the
evaluation of the role of various forcings in produc- global surface temperature values and the change
ing not only changes in global average temperature estimates presented in Figure 2.1. The maximum
but also changes in continental and ocean basin-scale difference, for instance, among three independent
temperatures. The patterns of warming over each estimates of global surface temperature change
continent except Antarctica and each ocean basin since 1979 is 0.01°C/decade. Spatial coverage has
over the past 50 years are only simulated by models improved, and daily temperature data for an
that include anthropogenic forcing (Figure 2.2). increasing number of land stations have also become
Attribution studies have also demonstrated that available, allowing more detailed assessments of
many of the observed changes in indicators of cli- extremes, as well as potential urban influences on
mate extremes consistent with warming, including both large-scale temperature averages and micro-
the annual number of frost days, warm and cold climate. It is well documented, for instance, that
days, and warm and cold nights, have likely occurred urban heat island effects are real, but very local, and
as a result of increased anthropogenic forcing. In they have been accounted for in the analyses: the
other words, many of the recently observed changes urban heat island influence on continental, hemi-
in climate are now being simulated in models. spheric, and global average trends is at least an
The ability of coupled climate models to simulate order of magnitude smaller than decadal and longer
the temperature evolution on continental scales, time-scale trends, as cities make up less than 0.5%
and the detection of anthropogenic effects on each of global land areas (see Schneider et al., 2009).
continent except Antarctica, provides even stronger There is no urban heat bias in the SST record.
evidence of human influence on the global climate Over the global oceans, surface temperatures have
14 E F F E C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E O N B I R D S

warmed 0.35°C since 1979, and the warming is glaciers, which drain ice from the interior, and melt-
strongly evident at all latitudes over each of the ing of Greenland and West Antarctica has increased
ocean basins. Moreover, the warming is evident at after about 2000. Critical changes (not well meas-
depth as well, indicating that the ocean is absorbing ured) are occurring in the ocean and ice shelves that
most of the heat being added to the climate system. buttress the flow of glaciers into the ocean. Glaciers
The largest short-term fluctuations in global mean and ice caps respond not only to temperature but
temperatures come from El Niño and La Niña also to changes in precipitation, and both winter
events. Heat stored in the ocean is released during accumulation and summer melting have increased
an El Niño, and this contributes to increases in glo- over the last half century in association with tem-
bal temperatures. From late 2007 to the first part of perature increases. In some regions, moderately
2009, lower temperatures occurred in association increased accumulation observed in recent decades
with the large 2007–2008 La Niña event, followed is consistent with changes in atmospheric circula-
by a weaker La Niña in 2008–2009. The highest glo- tion and associated increases in winter precipitation
bal mean SSTs recorded in the instrumental record (e.g. southwestern Norway, parts of coastal Alaska,
occurred in the middle of 2009 as a substantial El Patagonia, and the South Island of New Zealand)
Niño developed. even though increased ablation has led to marked
declines in mass balances in Alaska and Patagonia.
Tropical glacier changes are synchronous with those
2.3.2 Sea level
at higher latitudes, and all have shown declines in
The ocean warming causes sea water to expand and recent decades. Decreases in glaciers and ice caps
thus contributes to sea level rise. Melting of glaciers contributed to sea level rise by 0.05 cm per year
on land as well as ice caps and ice sheets also from 1961 to 2003, and 0.08 cm per year from 1993 to
contributes. Instrumental measurements of sea level 2003. Taken together, shrinkage of the ice sheets of
indicate that the global average has increased Greenland and Antarctica contributed 0.04 cm per
approximately 17 cm over the last century, and the year to sea level rise over 1993–2003. Since then evi-
increase has been 0.18 cm per year since 1961. The dence suggests increased melting of both Greenland
rate has been even faster recently (about 0.31 cm per and Antarctica, whereby they contribute (about
year from 1993 thorough mid-2009), when truly glo- equally) about 0.1 cm per year to sea level rise.
bal values have been measured from altimeters in Snow cover has decreased in many NH regions,
space. Prior to 2004, about 60% of global sea level particularly in the spring season, and this is consist-
rise is from ocean warming and expansion, while ent with greater increases in spring than autumn
40% was from melting land ice adding to the ocean surface temperatures in middle latitude regions.
volume. Since 2004 melting ice sheets have contrib- Sea ice extents have decreased in the Arctic, particu-
uted more. The observation of consistent global sea larly in the spring and summer seasons (7.4%/dec-
level rise over several decades, and also an increas- ade decrease from 1978 to 2005), and this is consistent
ing rate of sea level rise in the last decade or so, is with the fact that the average annual Arctic temper-
probably the single best metric of the cumulative ature has increased at almost twice the global aver-
global warming experienced to date. A consequence age rate, although changes in winds are also a major
is an increasing risk of coral bleaching and coastal factor. The AR4 included data only to 2005, when
storm surge flooding. sea ice extents were at record low values, which was
also the warmest year since records began in 1850
for the Arctic north of 65°N. This record was
2.3.3 Snow cover, sea and land ice
smashed in 2007 when Arctic sea ice dropped to
The observed increases in surface temperature are over 20% below the 2005 value. There have also
consistent with nearly worldwide reductions in gla- been decreases in sea ice thickness. With an unprec-
cier and small ice cap mass and extent in the 20th edented amount of first year ice in the Arctic that is
century. In addition, flow speed has recently very vulnerable to melting, 2008 ranks slightly
increased for some Greenland and Antarctic outlet higher in terms of sea ice extent than 2007, and 2009
 C L I M AT E C H A N G E 15

ranks third, but still lower than 2005. The total peak strong multi-decadal variability is observed and com-
summer time decrease in Arctic sea ice is about 40% plicates detection of long-term trends in tropical
of the 1970s’ values. Temperatures at the top of the cyclone activity. It has been estimated that heavy rains
permafrost layer in the Arctic have increased since in tropical storms and hurricanes have increased by
the 1980s (up to 3°C locally), and the maximum area 6–8% as a result of higher SSTs and more water vapour
covered by seasonally frozen ground has decreased in the atmosphere (Trenberth, 2007).
by about 7% in the NH since 1900, with an even
greater decrease (15%) in the boreal spring. There
2.3.5 Precipitation and drought
has been a reduction of about 2 weeks in the annual
duration of northern lake and river ice cover. Changes are also occurring in the amount, intensity,
In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice did not frequency, and type of precipitation in ways that are
exhibit any significant trend from the end of the also consistent with a warming planet. These aspects
1970s through to 2006, which is consistent with the of precipitation generally exhibit large natural vari-
lack of trend in surface temperature south of 65°S ability compared to temperature, making it harder
over that period. However, along the Antarctic to detect trends in the observational record. A key
Peninsula where significant warming has been ingredient in changes in character of precipitation is
observed, progressive break up of ice shelves the observed increase in water vapour and thus the
occurred beginning in the late 1980s, culminating in supply of atmospheric moisture to all storms,
the break up of the Larsen-B ice shelf in 2002. increasing the intensity of precipitation events.
Antarctic conditions are uniquely influenced by the Widespread increases in heavy precipitation events
ozone hole, which alters the atmospheric circula- and risk of flooding have been observed, even in
tion over the southern regions. places where total amounts have decreased. Hence,
the frequency of heavy rain events has increased in
most places but so too has episodic heavy snowfall
2.3.4 Extremes
events that are thus associated with warming.
For changes in mean temperature, there is likely to Long-term (1900–2005) trends have been observed
be an amplified change in extremes. Extreme events, in total precipitation amounts over many large
such as heat waves, are exceedingly important to regions. Significantly increased precipitation has
both natural systems and human systems and been observed in eastern parts of North and South
infrastructure. People and ecosystems are adapted to America, northern Europe, and northern and cen-
a range of natural weather variations, but it is the tral Asia. Drying has been observed in the Sahel, the
extremes of weather and climate that exceed toler- Mediterranean, southern Africa, and parts of south-
ances. Widespread changes in temperature extremes ern Asia. Precipitation is highly variable spatially
have been observed over the last 50 years. In particu- and temporally. Robust long-term trends have not
lar, the number of heat waves globally has increased, been observed for other large regions. The pattern
and there have been widespread increases in the of precipitation change is one of increases generally
numbers of warm nights. Cold days, cold nights, and at higher northern latitudes (because as the atmos-
days with frost have become rarer. Such changes phere warms it holds more moisture) and drying in
greatly affect the range of animals, including birds. the tropics and subtropics over land. Basin-scale
Satellite records suggest a global trend towards changes in ocean salinity provide further evidence
more intense and longer-lasting tropical cyclones of changes in the Earth’s water cycle, with freshen-
(including hurricanes and typhoons) since about 1970, ing at high latitudes and increased salinity in the
correlated with observed warming of tropical SSTs. subtropics.
There is no clear trend in the annual number of tropi- More intense and longer droughts have been
cal cyclones globally, although a substantial increase observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particu-
has occurred in the North Atlantic after 1994. There larly in the tropics and subtropics. Increased drying
are concerns about the quality of tropical cyclone data, due to higher temperatures and decreased precipita-
particularly before the satellite era. Furthermore, tion have contributed to these changes, with the latter
16 E F F E C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E O N B I R D S

being the dominant factor. The regions where Winter SLP (1981–2009) – (1951–1980)
droughts have occurred are determined largely by
changes in SST, especially in the tropics (such as dur- 180
ing El Niño), through changes in the atmospheric cir- 150W 150E
culation and precipitation. In the western USA,
diminishing snow pack and subsequent summer soil
120W 120E
moisture reductions have also been a factor. In
Australia and Europe, direct links to warming have
been inferred through the extreme nature of high tem-
peratures and heat waves accompanying drought. 90W 90E
In summary, there are an increasing number of
many independent surface observations that give
a consistent picture of a warming world. Such
60W 60E
multiple lines of evidence, the physical consistency
among them, and the consistency of findings among
multiple, independent analyses form the basis for 30W 30E
the iconic phrase from IPCC (2007a) that the ‘warm- 0
ing of the climate system is unequivocal’. (hPa)
–3.5 –3 –2.5 –2 –1.5 –1 –0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

Figure 2.3 Boreal winter (December–March) average Northern

2.4 Observed changes in atmospheric Hemisphere sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies (hPa) since 1981 expressed
circulation as departures from the 1951–1980 average values. The SLP data are from
Trenberth and Paolino (1980). See Plate 2.
2.4.1 Sea level pressure
Much of the warming that has contributed to the over middle latitudes since the late 1970s. The long-
global temperature increases of recent decades term significance of the SH SLP change is more dif-
(Figure 2.1) has occurred during boreal winter and ficult to establish, however, given the greater
spring over the continents of the NH. This pattern paucity of historical data over the southern ocean
of warming is strongly related to decade-long and Antarctica.
changes in natural patterns of the atmospheric and
oceanic circulation. The changes in boreal winter
2.4.2 Winds and storm tracks
circulation are reflected by lower-than-average sea
level pressure (SLP) over the middle and high lati- Because air flows counterclockwise around low
tudes of the North Pacific and North Atlantic pressure and clockwise around high pressure in the
Oceans, as well as over much of the Arctic, and NH, westerly flow across the middle latitudes of the
higher-than-average SLP over the subtropical Atlantic and Pacific sectors occurs throughout the
Atlantic (Figure 2.3). year. The vigour of the flow is related to the north–
Over the North Pacific, the changes in SLP corre- south (meridional) pressure gradient, so the surface
spond to an intensification of the Aleutian low- winds are strongest during winter when they aver-
pressure system, while over the North Atlantic the age more than 5 m/s from the eastern USA across
changes correspond to intensified low- and high- the Atlantic onto northern Europe as well as across
pressure centres near Iceland and the Azores, the entire Pacific. These middle latitude westerly
respectively. These northern oceanic pressure sys- winds extend throughout the troposphere and reach
tems are semi-permanent features of the winter their maximum (up to more than 40 m/s in the
atmospheric circulation (e.g. Hurrell and Deser, mean) at a height of about 12 km. This ‘jet stream’
2009). Over the SH, similar changes have been roughly coincides with the path of storms travelling
observed during austral summer, with surface across the northern oceans onto the continents.
pressures lowering over the Antarctic and rising These storm tracks play a critical role in both weather
 C L I M AT E C H A N G E 17

and climate, as they are associated with much of the regional characteristics that identify the most
precipitation and severe weather in middle latitudes conspicuous patterns emerge. Understanding the
and they transport large amounts of heat, moisture, nature of teleconnections and changes in their
and momentum towards the poles. behaviour is central to understanding regional cli-
Several studies, assessed by IPCC (2007a), indi- mate variability and change, as well as impacts on
cate that there has been a poleward shift in the mean humans and ecosystems.
latitude of extratropical cyclones, and that cyclones The analysis of teleconnections has typically
have become fewer and more intense, over the last employed a linear perspective, which assumes a
half of the 20th century. For instance, the change basic spatial pattern with varying amplitude and
towards a deeper polar vortex and Icelandic Low in mirror image positive and negative polarities. In
boreal winter (Figure 2.3) has been accompanied by contrast, non-linear interpretations identify pre-
intensification and poleward displacement of the ferred climate anomalies as recurrent states of a spe-
Atlantic jet and associated enhancement of the cific polarity. Climate change may result through
Atlantic storm track activity. Analogous changes changes from one quasi-stationary state to another,
have also been found over the North Pacific and in as a preference for one polarity of a pattern, or
the SH. through a change in the nature or number of states.
There are, however, significant uncertainties, Arguably the most prominent teleconnections
with some studies suggesting that storm track activ- over the NH are the North Atlantic Oscillation
ity during the last part of the 20th century may not (NAO) and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pat-
be more intense than the activity prior to the 1950s. terns, and their spatial structures are revealed most
Station pressure data over the Atlantic–European simply through one-point correlation maps (Figure
sector (where records are long and consistent) show 2.4). In the SH, wave structures do not emerge as
a decline of storminess from high levels during the readily owing to the dominance of more zonally
late 19th century to a minimum around 1960 and symmetric variability (the so-called southern annu-
then a quite rapid increase to a maximum around lar mode, or SAM, see Section 2.5.6). Although tel-
1990, followed again by a slight decline. Changes in econnections are best defined over a grid, simple
storm tracks, however, are complex and are related indices based on a few key station locations remain
to spatial shifts and strength changes in leading pat- attractive, as the series can often be carried back in
terns of climate variability (next section). time long before complete gridded fields were avail-
able. The disadvantage of such station-based indi-
ces is increased noise from the reduced spatial
2.5 Observed changes in patterns sampling. For instance, Hurrell et al. (2003) found
of circulation variability that the residence time of the NAO in its positive
phase in the early 20th century was not as great as
2.5.1 Teleconnections
indicated by the positive NAO index for that
A consequence of the transient behaviour of atmos- period.
pheric planetary-scale waves is that anomalies in Many teleconnections have been identified, but
climate on seasonal time scales typically occur combinations of only a small number of patterns
over large geographic regions. Some regions may can account for much of the interannual variability
be cooler than average, while at the same time, in the circulation and surface climate. Quadrelli and
thousands of kilometres away, warmer conditions Wallace (2004) found that many patterns of NH
prevail. These simultaneous variations in climate, interannual variability can be reconstructed as lin-
often of opposite sign, over distant parts of the ear combinations of the first two empirical orthogo-
globe are commonly referred to as ‘teleconnec- nal functions (EOFs) of SLP. Trenberth et al. (2005)
tions’ in the meteorological literature. Though analysed global atmospheric mass and found four
their precise nature and shape vary to some extent key rotated EOF patterns: the two annular modes
according to the statistical methodology and the (SAM and the northern annular mode, or NAM), a
data set employed in the analysis, consistent global ENSO-related pattern, and a fourth closely
18 E F F E C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E O N B I R D S

DJF 500 hPa 45°N, 165°W only the predominant teleconnection patterns
180 are documented.
150W .4 150E
–.2.2
.6 2.5.2 ENSO

.2
120W 120E
.4 .2 Fluctuations in tropical Pacific SSTs are related to
–.4

.2 the occurrence of El Niño, during which the equato-

rial surface waters warm considerably from the
90W 90E
–.2

International Date Line (IDL) to the west coast of

.2 –.

South America. The atmospheric phenomenon tied

2

to El Niño is termed the Southern Oscillation, which

60W 60E is a global-scale standing wave in atmospheric mass
(thus evident in SLP), involving exchanges of air
30W –.2 30E between Eastern and Western Hemispheres centred
0 in tropical and subtropical latitudes (Figure 2.5).
DJF 500 hPa 65°N, 30°W The oscillation is characterized by the inverse varia-
180
150W –.2 150E tions in SLP at Darwin (12.4°S, 130.9°E) in northern
Australia and Tahiti (17.5°S, 149.6°W) in the south
Pacific: annual mean pressures at these two stations
120W 120E
are correlated at –0.8. A simple index of the SO is,
therefore, often defined by the Tahiti minus Darwin
.2
–.2

SLP anomalies, normalized by the long-term mean

–.2

90W 90E and standard deviation of the mean SLP difference,

–.4

.4

or simply by the negative of the Darwin record

(Figure 2.5 and Table 2.1). During an El Niño event,
60W 60E the SLP tends to be higher than usual at Darwin and
–.
6

lower than usual at Tahiti. Negative values of the

SO index (SOI), therefore, are typically associated
30W 30E
0 with warmer-than-average SSTs in the near equato-
rial Pacific, while positive values of the index are
Figure 2.4 One-point correlation maps of 500 hPa geopotential heights typically associated with colder-than-average SSTs.
for boreal winter (December–February, DJF) over 1958–2006. In the top While changes in near equatorial Pacific SSTs can
panel, the reference point is 45°N, 165°W, corresponding to the primary
occur without a swing in the SO, El Niño (EN) and
centre of action of the Pacific–North American pattern. In the lower panel,
the North Atlantic Oscillation pattern is illustrated based on a reference
the SO are linked so closely that the term ENSO is
point of 65°N, 30°W. Negative correlation coefficients are dashed, the used to describe the atmosphere–ocean interactions
contour increment is 0.2 and the zero contour has been excluded. Adapted over the tropical Pacific. Warm ENSO events, there-
from Hurrell and Deser (2009). fore, are those in which both a negative SO extreme
and an El Niño occur together.
related to the North Pacific index (NPI) and the During the warm phase of ENSO, the warming of
Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), which in turn is the waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific
closely related to ENSO and the PNA pattern. shifts the location of the heaviest tropical rainfall
Teleconnection patterns tend to be most promi- eastward towards or beyond the IDL from its clima-
nent in winter (especially in the NH), when the tological position centred over Indonesia and the far
mean circulation is strongest. The strength of tel- western Pacific. This shift in rainfall alters the heat-
econnections and the way they influence surface ing patterns that force large-scale waves in the atmos-
climate also vary over long time scales, and these phere. The waves in the airflow determine the
aspects are exceedingly important for under- preferred location of the extratropical storm tracks.
standing regional climate change. In the following Consequently, changes from one phase of the SO to
 –0.9 –0.6 –0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 –0.9 –0.6 –0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9
3

Standard deviations
1

–1

–2

–3
1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010
–0.9 –0.6 –0.3 0 0.3 0.6 0.9 Year

Figure 2.5 Correlations with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) (Table 2.1) for annual (May–April) means for sea level pressures (SLP; top left) and surface temperature (top right) for 1958–2004, and
estimates of global precipitation for 1979–2003 (bottom left), updated from Trenberth and Caron (2000) and IPCC (2007a). The Darwin-based SOI, in normalized units of standard deviation, from 1866 to
2009 (lower right) features monthly values with an 11-point low-pass filter, which effectively removes fluctuations with periods of less than 8 months. The smooth black curve shows decadal variations. Red
values indicate positive SLP anomalies at Darwin and thus El Niño conditions. See Plate 3.
20 E F F E C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E O N B I R D S

another have a profound impact on regional temper- ENSO and are apt to be enhanced with global
atures (Figure 2.5). Most warm phase ENSO winters, warming. For example, the modest 2002–2003 El
for example, are mild over western Canada and parts Niño was associated with a drought in Australia,
of the northern USA and are cool over the southern made much worse by record-breaking heat. A strong
USA, although the regional details vary considerably La Niña event took place in 2007–2008, contributing
from one event to another. to 2008 being the coolest year since the turn of the
Although the SO has a typical period of 2–7 years, 21st century, and was followed by a weak La Niña
the strength of the oscillation has varied considera- in 2008–2009. However, the transition to El Niño by
bly over the instrumental period of record. There June 2009 has led to the highest global SST anomaly
were strong variations from the 1880s to the 1920s in July 2009, exceeding the previous record in 1998.
and after about 1950, but weaker variations in Thus, whether or not observed changes in ENSO
between (with the exception of the major 1939–1941 behaviour are physically linked to global climate
event). A remarkable feature of the SOI is the dec- change is a research question of great importance.
adal and longer-term variations in recent years,
which is lacking from earlier periods. In particular,
2.5.3 Extratropical Pacific
a pronounced change towards more negative val-
ues, and thus warmer tropical Pacific conditions, is In the middle troposphere, the warm phase ENSO
evident since the mid-1970s, including a shift to pattern is typically associated with higher-than-
generally above-normal SSTs in the eastern and normal pressure near Hawaii and over the north-
central equatorial Pacific and a tendency towards western USA and western Canada, while pressures
more prolonged and stronger El Niño events. are typically lower than normal over the central
ENSO events involve large exchanges of heat North Pacific and the southeast USA, i.e. a positive
between the ocean and atmosphere and affect glo- PNA teleconnection pattern (Figure 2.4). The differ-
bal mean temperatures. The 1997–1998 event was ence in normalized height anomalies from these
the largest on record in terms of SST anomalies, and four centres forms the most commonly used time-
the global mean temperature in 1998 was the high- varying index of the PNA (Table 2.1). Variations in
est on record. Extremes of the hydrological cycle the PNA pattern represent changes in the north–
such as floods and droughts are common with south migration of the large-scale PNA air masses,

Table 2.1 Indices of circulation variability.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The Tahiti minus Darwin SLP anomalies, normalized by the long-term mean and standard deviation of the mean SLP
difference, or alternatively by the negative of the Darwin SLP record (www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/soi.html)
Pacific—North American pattern (PNA) Index. The mean of normalized 500 hPa height anomalies at 20°N, 160°W and 55°N,115°W minus those at
45°N, 165°W and 30°N, 85°W (www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/month_pna_index2.shtml)
North Pacific Index (NPI). The average SLP anomaly over the Gulf of Alaska (30°N–65°N, 160°E–140°W; www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/indices.html)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index. The amplitude of the pattern defined by the leading EOF of annual mean SST in the Pacific basin north of
20°N (http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest)
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) Index. The low-pass filtered time series of annual mean SST anomalies averaged over the North Atlantic
(0–60°N, 0–80°W; www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/AMO.html)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. The difference of normalized winter (December–March) SLP anomalies between Lisbon, Portugal and
Stykkisholmur, Iceland, or alternatively the amplitude of the leading EOF of mean SLP over the North Atlantic (20–80°N, 90°W−40°E; www.cgd.ucar.edu/
cas/jhurrell/indices.html)
Northern Annular Mode (NAM) Index. The amplitude of the pattern defined by the leading EOF of winter monthly mean NH SLP anomalies poleward of
20°N (www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/indices.html)
Southern Annular Mode (SAM) Index. The difference in average SLP between SH middle and high latitudes (usually 45°S and 65°S) from gridded or station
data (www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/gjma/sam.html), or alternatively the amplitude of the leading EOF of monthly mean SH 850 hPa height poleward of 20°S
 C L I M AT E C H A N G E 21

storm tracks and their associated weather, affecting also associated with SST fluctuations in the tropical
precipitation in western North America and the fre- Indian and Pacific Oceans (e.g. Deser et al., 2004).
quency of Alaskan blocking events and associated Very similar time-scale fluctuations in SST and
cold air outbreaks over the western USA in winter. atmospheric and ocean circulations are present
On interannual time scales, the association between across the whole Pacific basin, and these variations
PNA and ENSO variations reflects mainly the are known as the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation
dynamical teleconnection to higher latitudes forced (IPO). The PDO/IPO has been described as a long-
by deep convection in the tropics. lived El Niño-like pattern of Indo-Pacific climate
At the surface, the signature of the PNA is mostly variability or as a low-frequency residual of ENSO
confined to the North Pacific, where SLP tends to be variability on multi-decadal time scales. Phase
lower than normal during ENSO. Moreover, decadal changes of the PDO/IPO are associated with pro-
to inter-decadal variability in the atmospheric circu- nounced changes in temperature and rainfall pat-
lation is especially prominent in the North Pacific terns across North and South America, Asia and
(e.g. Trenberth and Hurrell, 1994) where fluctuations Australia. Furthermore, ENSO teleconnections on
in the strength of the wintertime Aleutian low-pres- interannual time scales around the Pacific basin are
sure system, indicated by the NPI (Table 2.1), co- significantly modified by the PDO/IPO.
vary with North Pacific SST in what has been termed
the ‘Pacific Decadal Oscillation’ or PDO. The NPI
2.5.4 Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation
(Figure 2.6) reveals extended periods of predomi-
nantly high values indicative of a weakened circula- Over the Atlantic sector, in contrast to the tropical
tion (1900–1924 and 1947–1976) and predominantly Pacific, decadal variability has large amplitude rela-
low values indicative of strengthened circulation tive to interannual variability, especially over the
(1925–1946 and 1977–2005). The well-known North Atlantic (e.g. Knight et al., 2005). The Atlantic
decrease in pressure from 1976 to 1977 is analogous decadal variability has been termed the ‘Atlantic
to transitions that occurred from 1946 to 1947 and multi-decadal oscillation’ or AMO (Figure 2.7;
from 1924 to 1925, and these earlier changes were Table 2.1). North Atlantic SSTs show a 65–75-year

2
Standard deviation

–1

–2

–3
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year

Figure 2.6 Time series of the North Pacific index (Table 2.1) reflecting the strength of the winter Aleutian low-pressure system, with positive (negative)
values indicative of a weak (strong) Aleutian Low. The smooth black curve shows decadal variations. Values were updated and extended to earlier decades
from Trenberth and Hurrell (1994).
22 E F F E C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E O N B I R D S

Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation

0.6

0.4

0.2
index

0.0

–0.2

–0.4
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year

Figure 2.7 Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation as defined in Table 2.1. Updated from Trenberth and Shea (2006).

variation (0.4°C range), with a warm phase during

2.5.5 North Atlantic Oscillation
1930–1960 and cool phases during 1905–1925 and
1970–1990. The cycle appears to have returned to One of the most prominent teleconnection patterns
a warm phase beginning in the mid-1990s, and is the NAO, which refers to changes in the atmos-
tropical Atlantic SSTs were at record high levels in pheric SLP difference between the Arctic and the
2005. Trenberth and Shea (2006) formed a revised subtropical Atlantic (Figures 2.4 and 2.8). Although
AMO index, subtracting the global mean SST from it is the only teleconnection pattern evident through-
the North Atlantic SST. The revised index is about out the year in the NH, the climate anomalies asso-
0.35°C lower than that in Figure 2.7 after 2000, high- ciated with the NAO are largest during the boreal
lighting the fact that most of the recent warming winter months, when the atmosphere is dynami-
is global in scale. Instrumental records are not long cally the most active.
enough to determine whether AMO variability A time series of nearly 150 years of wintertime
has a well-defined period rather than a simpler NAO variability, the spatial pattern of the oscilla-
character, such as ‘red noise’. The robustness of the tion, and NAO impacts on winter surface tempera-
signal has therefore been addressed using paleocli- ture and precipitation are shown in Figure 2.8.
mate records, and similar fluctuations have been Most modern NAO indices are derived either from
documented through the last four centuries (e.g. the simple difference in surface pressure anoma-
Delworth and Mann, 2000). lies between various northern and southern loca-
The slow changes in Atlantic SSTs have affected tions or from the principal component time series
regional climate trends over parts of North America of the leading (usually regional) EOF of SLP
and Europe, hemispheric temperature anomalies, (Hurrell and Deser, 2009). A commonly used index
sea ice concentration in the Greenland Sea, and hur- (Figure 2.8; Table 2.1) is based on the differences in
ricane activity in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean normalized SLP anomalies between Lisbon,
(e.g. Webster et al., 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 2006). Portugal, and Stykkisholmur, Iceland. This NAO
In addition, tropical Atlantic SST anomalies have index correlates with the NAM index (Table 2.1) at
contributed to rainfall anomalies over the Caribbean 0.85, which emphasizes that the NAO and NAM
and the Nordeste region of Brazil, and severe multi- reflect essentially the same mode of tropospheric
year droughts over parts of Africa, including the variability.
Sahel (e.g. Hoerling et al., 2006). Tropical Atlantic As reviewed in detail by Hurrell et al. (2003),
SST variations are also a factor in producing drought the NAO exerts a dominant influence on winter
conditions over portions of North America, although surface temperatures across much of the NH, and
tropical Pacific SST variations appear to play a more on storminess and precipitation over Europe and
dominant role (e.g. Seager et al., 2008). North Africa (Figure 2.8). When the NAO index is
 C L I M AT E C H A N G E 23

180 180

1
2
0

0
–4 5

4
90W 90E 90W 90E

3
–4
4

0 SLP 0 Sfc T
–12 –10 –8 –6 –4 –2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 –6 –5 –4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
180

NAO DJFM
4
–2

2
2

90W 90E 0

–2
–2

–4
2
–2 –6
–6
1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010
4
Year

0 Precip
–12 –10 –8 –6 –4 –2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Figure 2.8 Changes in winter (December–March) surface pressure, temperature and precipitation corresponding to a unit deviation of the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) index over 1900–2009. Top left: Mean sea level pressure (0.1 hPa). Top right: Land surface air and SST (0.1°C; contour increment 0.2°C):
regions of insufficient data (e.g. over much of the Arctic) are not contoured. Bottom left: Precipitation for 1979–2009 based on global estimates (0.1 mm/
day; contour interval 0.6 mm/day). Bottom right: Station-based index of winter NAO (Table 2.1). The heavy solid line represents the index smoothed to
remove fluctuations with periods less than 4 years. The indicated year corresponds to the January of the winter season (e.g. 1990 is the winter of
1989/1990). Adapted and updated from Hurrell et al. (2003) and IPCC (2007a). SLP, sea level pressure; Sfc T, surface temperature; Precip, precipitation;
NAO, North Atlantic Oscillation;DJFM, December, January, February, March. See Plate 4.
24 E F F E C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E O N B I R D S

positive, enhanced westerly flow across the North 2.5.6 Southern annular mode
Atlantic in winter moves warm moist maritime
The principal mode of variability of the atmospheric
air over much of Europe and far downstream,
circulation in the SH is known as the SAM. It is
while stronger northerly winds over Greenland
essentially a zonally symmetric structure associated
and northeastern Canada carry cold air south-
with synchronous pressure or height anomalies
ward and decrease land temperatures and SST
of opposite sign in middle and high latitudes, and
over the northwest Atlantic. Temperature varia-
therefore reflects changes in the main belt of subpo-
tions over North Africa and the Middle East (cool-
lar westerly winds. Enhanced southern ocean west-
ing) and the southeastern USA (warming),
erlies occur in the positive phase of the SAM. The
associated with the stronger clockwise flow
SAM contributes a significant proportion of SH
around the subtropical Atlantic high-pressure
mid-latitude circulation variability on many time
centre, are also notable.
scales. Trenberth et al. (2005) showed that the SAM
Positive NAO index winters are also associ-
is the leading mode in an EOF analysis of monthly
ated with a northeastward shift in the Atlantic
mean global atmospheric mass, accounting for
storm activity, with enhanced activity from
around 10% of total global variance.
Newfoundland into northern Europe and a mod-
As with the NAO/NAM, the structure and vari-
est decrease to the south. Positive NAO index
ability of the SAM result mainly from the internal
winters are also typified by more intense and fre-
dynamics of the atmosphere, and the SAM is an
quent storms in the vicinity of Iceland and the
expression of storm track and jet stream variability.
Norwegian Sea. The correlation between the NAO
The SAM index (Figure 2.9; Table 2.1) reveals a gen-
index and cyclone activity is highly negative in
eral increase beginning in the 1960s consistent with
eastern Canada and positive in western Canada.
a strengthening of the circumpolar vortex and
The upward trend towards more positive NAO
intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. The
index winters from the mid-1960s to the mid-1990s
trend in the SAM has contributed to Antarctic tem-
was associated with increased wave heights over
perature trends, specifically a strong summer warm-
the northeast Atlantic and decreased wave heights
ing in the Peninsula region and little change or
south of 40°N.
cooling over much of the rest of the continent.
The NAO modulates the transport and conver-
The positive SAM is also associated with low
gence of atmospheric moisture and the distribu-
pressure west of the Peninsula, leading to increased
tion of precipitation. More precipitation than
poleward flow, warming, and reduced sea ice in the
normal falls from Iceland through Scandinavia
region. The positive trend in the SAM has led to
during high NAO index winters, while the reverse
more cyclones in the circumpolar trough and hence
occurs over much of central and southern Europe,
a greater contribution to Antarctic precipitation
the Mediterranean, parts of the Middle East, the
from these near-coastal systems. The SAM also
Canadian Arctic, and much of Greenland (Figure
affects spatial patterns of precipitation variability in
2.8). As far eastward as Turkey, river runoff is sig-
Antarctica and southern South America. Further
nificantly correlated with NAO variability. There
aspects of the SAM, including its impacts, are sum-
are also significant NAO effects on ocean heat
marized in IPCC (2007a).
content, sea ice, ocean currents, and ocean heat
transport, as well as very significant impacts on
many aspects of the north Atlantic/European
2.6 Projected future climate change
biosphere (e.g. IPCC, 2007b). A thorough review
of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to cli- The ability of climate models to simulate the past
mate variability associated with the NAO is also climate record gives us increased confidence in
provided by Mysterud et al. (2003), while Durant their ability to simulate the future. We can now
et al. (2004) review the impact of the NAO on look back at projections from earlier IPCC assess-
North Atlantic marine birds (see also Kanuscak ments and see that the observed rate of global
et al., 2004). warming since 1990 (about 0.2°C/decade) is
 180

S
20

S
45
90E 90W

850hPa m
0

–14 –10 –6 –2 2 6 10 14
180
S
60

S
75

90E 90W

Sfc T
0

–1.8 –1.4 –1 –0.6 –0.2 0.2 0.6 1 1.4 1.8

4
SAM index (season)

–2

–4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Figure 2.9 Bottom: Seasonal values of the southern annular mode (SAM) index (Table 2.1; updated from Marshall, 2003). The smooth black curve shows
decadal variations. Top: The SAM geopotential height pattern as a regression based on the SAM time series for seasonal anomalies at 850 hPa (see also
Thompson and Wallace, 2000). Middle: The regression of changes in surface temperature (°C) over the 23-year period (1982–2004) corresponding to a unit
change in the SAM index, plotted south of 60°S. Values exceeding about 0.4°C in magnitude are significant at the 1% significance level. Adapted from IPCC
(2007a). Sfc T, surface temperature. See Plate 5.
26 E F F E C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E O N B I R D S

within the projected range (0.15–0.30°C/decade). • Decadal-average warming over each inhabited
Moreover, the attribution of the recent climate continent by 2030 is insensitive to the emission sce-
change to increased concentrations of GHGs in nario; moreover, the temperature change is very
the atmosphere has direct implications for the likely to exceed the model generated natural tem-
future. Because of the long lifetime of CO2 and the perature variability by at least a factor of two.
slow equilibration of the oceans, there is a sub- • By the middle of the 21st century the choice of
stantial future commitment to further global cli- scenario becomes more important for the magni-
mate change even in the absence of further tude of surface warming, and by the end of the
emission of GHGs into the atmosphere. Several of 21st century there are clear consequences for
the coupled model experiments performed for the which scenario is followed. The best estimate of
IPCC AR4 explored the concept of climate change the global surface temperature change from today
commitment. For instance, if concentrations of to the end of the century is +1.8°C (with a likely
GHGs were held constant at year 2000 levels range of +1.1°C to +2.9°C) for the low emission
(implying a very large reduction in emissions), a scenario (B1, corresponding to a CO2 equivalent
further warming trend would occur over the next concentration of 600 ppm by 2100) and +4.0°C
20 years at a rate of about 0.1°C/decade, with a (+2.4°C to +6.4°C) for the highest emission sce-
smaller warming rate continuing after that. Such nario (A1F1, corresponding to 1550 ppm).
committed climate change is due to (1) the long • Geographical patterns of warming show greatest
lifetime of CO2 and other GHGs and (2) the long temperature increases at high northern latitudes
time it takes for warmth to penetrate into the and over land, with less warming over the southern
oceans. Under the aforementioned scenario, the oceans and North Atlantic, as has been observed in
associated sea level rise commitment is much recent decades. In spite of a slowdown of the merid-
longer term, due to the effects of thermal expan- ional overturning circulation and changes in the
sion on sea level. Water has the physical property Gulf Stream in the ocean across models, there is still
of expanding as it heats up, therefore, as the warming over the North Atlantic and Europe due
warming penetrates deeper into the ocean, an to the overwhelming effects of the increased con-
ever-increasing volume of water expands and centrations of GHGs.
contributes to ongoing sea level rise. Since it • Snow cover is projected to contract. Widespread
would take centuries for the entire volume of the increases in thaw depth are projected over most
ocean to warm in response to the effects of GHGs permafrost regions.
already in the air, sea level rise would continue for • Sea ice coverage is projected to shrink. Large
centuries. Further glacial melt is also likely. parts of the Arctic Ocean are expected to no longer
The 16 climate modelling groups (from 11 coun- have year-round ice cover by the middle of the 21st
tries) contributing to the AR4 produced the most century. In AR4 the results were more suggestive of
extensive internationally coordinated climate such changes by the end of the 21st century, but
change analysis ever performed. In total, 23 global recent changes and new model results suggest that
coupled climate models were used to perform sim- late-summer sea ice could disappear almost com-
ulations of the 20th century climate, three scenarios pletely in just a few decades.
of the 21st century (based on low-, medium-, and • It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and
high-emission scenarios), and three idealized stabi- heavy precipitation events will continue to become
lization experiments. Some of the major results more frequent. Models also project a 50–100%
include: decline in the frequency of cold air outbreaks in
most regions of the winter NH. Related decreases in
• Over the next two decades, all models produce frost days contribute to longer growing seasons.
similar warming trends in global surface tempera- • Projections of sea level rise by the end of the cen-
tures, regardless of the scenario. The rate of the pro- tury are similar to previous estimates, ranging from
jected warming is near 0.2°C/decade, or about 30 to 40 cm, but do not include possible ice sheet
twice that of the ‘commitment’ runs. collapse.
 C L I M AT E C H A N G E 27

• About 60–70% of the projected sea level rise is include the complex processes involved with mod-
due to thermal expansion of sea water. There is less elling the carbon cycle, this feedback is positive
certainty of the future contributions from other (adding to more warming) in all models so far con-
sources. For instance, the projections include a con- sidered. The addition of carbon cycle feedbacks
tribution due to increased ice flow from Greenland therefore increases the fraction of anthropogenic
and Antarctica at the rates observed over the past emissions that remain in the atmosphere, thereby
decade, but how these flow rates might change in giving higher values on the warm end of the uncer-
the future is not known. tainty ranges.
• Increases in the amount of precipitation are very
likely in high latitudes, while decreases are likely in
2.7 Conclusions
most subtropical land regions, continuing recent
trends. The consequences of the physical changes in climate
• SLP is projected to increase over the subtropics are addressed extensively in IPCC (2007b).
and middle latitudes, and decrease over high lati- Considerable evidence suggests that recent warm-
tudes associated with annular mode changes ing is strongly affecting terrestrial biological sys-
(NAM/NAO and SAM). Consequently, storm tems, including earlier timing of spring events, such
tracks are projected to move poleward, with conse- as leaf-unfolding, bird migration, and egg-laying,
quent changes in wind, precipitation, and tempera- and poleward and upward shifts in ranges in plant
ture patterns outside the tropics, continuing the and animal species. Moreover, the resilience of many
pattern of observed trends over the last few ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by
decades. an unprecedented combination of climate change,
• Most models warm the central and eastern equa- associated disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought,
torial Pacific more than the western equatorial wildfire, insects, and ocean acidification), and other
Pacific, with a corresponding mean eastward shift human effects such as land use and change, pollu-
in precipitation. ENSO interannual variability is tion, and over-exploitation of resources.
projected to continue in all models, but with large An unmistakable sign of climate change, for
inter-model differences. instance, is the extremely large clusters of dead
pine trees from the southern Rockies into vast parts
The climate models assessed in the AR4 have bet- of Canada and Alaska. Forest managers through-
ter and more complete representations of many out the North American west have called the die-
physical processes, but as our knowledge of the dif- backs ‘catastrophic’ and ‘unprecedented’. The area
ferent components of the climate system and their affected is 50 times larger than the area affected by
interactions increases, so does the complexity of cli- forest fire with an economic impact nearly five
mate models. Historical changes in land use and times as great (Logan et al., 2003). The trees are suc-
changes in the distribution of continental water due cumbing to the relentless attack of the mountain
to dams and irrigation, for instance, need to be con- pine beetle. Warming temperatures have not only
sidered. Future projected land cover changes due to removed the natural line of defence against such
human land uses are also likely to significantly infestations, namely sufficiently cold temperatures
affect climate, especially locally, and these effects in winter, but they are speeding up the life cycle of
are only just now being included in climate the beetle. In contiguous USA, for example, warmer
models. summer temperatures are enabling the beetle to
One of the major advances in climate modelling produce two generations in a year, when previ-
in recent years has been the introduction of coupled ously they reproduced once a year (Berg et al.,
climate-carbon models. Climate change is expected 2006).
to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to Global warming promotes increases in both
act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence drought through drying (evaporation) and temper-
provide a feedback to climate change. Although ature. With atmospheric temperature increases the
only relatively few global coupled climate models water holding capacity goes up at 7%/°C, and has
28 E F F E C T S O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E O N B I R D S

the effect of drawing moisture out of plants and aggressively to reduce carbon emissions and
soils. In many places, even as rains have become dependency on fossil fuels, creating instead a sus-
heavier (more intense), so too have dry spells tainable and clean energy future. Mitigation actions
become longer. A consequence of more intense but taken now mainly have benefits 50 years and
less frequent precipitation events is that what were beyond because of the huge inertia in the climate
once 500-year flood events are now more like 30- or system, therefore society will have to adapt to cli-
50-year events. After a certain point where the mate change, including its many adverse effects on
ground is dry and plants have reached wilting human health and ecosystems, even if actions are
point, all of the heat goes into raising temperature taken to reduce the magnitude and rate of climate
and creating heat waves, and then wild fire risk change. The projected rate of change far exceeds
goes up substantially. ‘Dry lightning’ can then be anything seen in nature in the past 10,000 years and
disastrous, especially in areas where trees are dam- is therefore apt to be disruptive in many ways.
aged, for example by bark beetles. The risk of wild
fire does not necessarily translate into a wild fire if
care has been taken in managing the risk by build- 2.8 References
ing wild fire breaks, cutting down on litter, and
removing diseased and dead trees and vegetation Berg, E.E., Henry, J.D., Fastie, C.L., et al. (2006) Spruce bee-
near buildings. tle outbreaks on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, and
For humans, autonomous adaptation occurs to Kluane National Park and Reserve, Yukon Territory:
relationship to summer temperatures and regional dif-
changing conditions to some degree. Climate
ferences in disturbance regimes. Forest Ecology and
change effects occur amidst increases in life expect-
Management 227, 219–232.
ancy in most places and are thus hard to sort out. Delworth, T.L. and Mann, M.E. (2000) Observed and sim-
Direct effects are nonetheless evident from changes ulated multidecadal variability in the Northern
in heat, cold, storms (including hurricanes and tor- Hemisphere. Climate Dynamics 16, 661–676.
nadoes), drought, and wild fires. The drought- Deser, C., Phillips, A.S., and Hurrell, J.W. (2004) Pacific
related heat wave in Europe in summer 2003, for interdecadal climate variability: linkages between the
instance, killed as many as 55,000 people. On the tropics and the north Pacific during boreal winter since
other hand, fewer cold waves reduce mortality. Safe 1900. Journal of Climate 17, 3109–3124.
drinking water is jeopardized by more intense rains Durant, J.M., Stenseth, N.C., Anker-Nilssen, T., et al. (2004)
and runoff, which can lead to contamination and Marine birds and climate fluctuation in the North
Atlantic. In N.C. Stenseth, G. Ottersen, J.W. Hurrell, and
increased microbial loading. Hence, water-borne
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diseases have been observed to increase. Also
The North Atlantic, pp. 95–105. Oxford University Press,
drought and observed earlier snow melt and runoff Oxford.
jeopardize water supplies, especially in summer. Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2009) The potential to narrow
Changes in temperatures, humidity, and precipi- uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bulletin of
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ease, and have increased risk of certain problems in Hoerling, M.P., Hurrell, J.W., Eischeid, J., and Phillips, A.
plants, animals, and humans. Air quality is chang- (2006) Detection and attribution of 20th century
ing from pollution, and ground level ozone and Northern and Southern African rainfall change. Journal
particulate matter are increasing in most regions, of Climate 19, 3989–4008.
with increased hospital admissions for respiratory Hurrell, J.W. (2002) Recent atmospheric circulation changes
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disease. Particular human health problems have
Hurrell, J.W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M.
occurred with spread of West Nile virus, which
(2003) An overview of the North Atlantic oscillation.
requires warmer temperatures to survive. Similarly, In J.W. Hurrell, Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, and M. Visbeck,
Lyme disease, borne by ticks, is associated with eds, The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance
temperature and precipitation (Chapter 15). and Environmental Impact. Geophysics Monographs,
The reality of anthropogenic climate change can vol. 134, pp. 1–35. American Geophysical Union,
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 C L I M AT E C H A N G E 29

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Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
Light came slowly into the world, coming not so much from the east
as from some vague, general nowhere—a light that did not grow
brighter but only increased in quantity. A northwest snow squall was
blowing across the sedgy marshes and the dunes, “seeming
nowhere to alight” in the enormous landscape, and whirling off to
the sullen, iron-green, and icy sea. As I watched, half-a-dozen gulls
came sailing over from the marsh. These birds like foul weather and
have a way of flying out over along the breakers a few minutes after
the edge of a cloud has hidden the sun, and there is a strange,
ominous sense of storm in this great natural scene.
The snow skirted along the beach, the wind suffering it no rest; I
saw little whirlpools of it driving down the sand into the onrush of
the breakers, it gathered in the footprints of the coast guard patrols,
building up on their leeward side and patterning them in white on
the empty beach. The very snow in the air had a character of its
own, for it was the snow of the outer Cape and the North Atlantic,
snow icy and crystalline, and sweeping across the dunes and moors
rather than down upon them. Chancing to look to the north, I saw
Nauset Light still turning and gleaming, and as I watched, it
suddenly sank to a storm-smothered and distant glow and stopped.
By the almanac, the sun had risen. So began the worst winter on the
Cape for close upon fifty years, a winter marked by great storms and
tides, six wrecks, and the loss of many lives.
The sun, this December morning, has come to the end of his
southern journey, he climbs the whitish sky to the south over the
white fury of the Orleans shoals, and takes on a silvery quality from
the pallor of the sky. On such a morning went ancient peoples to
their hills, and cried to the pale god to return to their woods and
fields; perhaps the vanished Nausets danced a ceremonial dance on
those inland moors, and the same northwest wind carried the
measured drumming to these dunes. A morning to go out upon the
dunes and study the work of winter. Between the cold blue of the
sea and the levels of the marshes, the long wall of the dunes lies
blanched to a whiter pallor than the surrounding landscape, for there
is no russet and but little gold in dune grass when it dies. That
intricacy of green, full-fleshed life, which billowed like wild wheat in
the summer’s southwest wind, has thinned away now to a sparse
world of separate heads, each one holding, as in a fist, a clump of
whitish and mildewed wires.
The sand moves beneath. This shrinking of summer’s vegetation,
this uncovering of the body of the dune, has permitted the winter
gales to reach the sand, and all up and down the great wall, on the
tops of the dunes, the surface sand is moving. The direction of this
movement varies, of course, with the direction of the wind, but in
general the movement is toward the sea, for the prevailing winter
winds are northwesterly. In some places the blown and creeping
sand has covered the grass so deeply that only the very tips of the
withered spikes rise out of it; in other places, on the landward rims
of the dunes, the wind has blown the sand entirely away from the
plant and left a withered tangle of roots and stalks sprawling in the
wind. Here and there, in the dead, whitish grass, one encounters a
stray tiny spotlet of snow, relic of a storm a fortnight past. Such
spots linger here for inexplicable weeks and have an air of things
disregarded and forgotten.
I have written of the movement of sand on the surface of the
dune, yet the very essence of the work of winter here is the
quieting, the enchainment of the mass of the sand. The sun no
longer being hot enough to dry it, moisture lies on it and within it, it
loses its fluidity, it takes on weight and definition. Footprints which
the summer would erase in a quarter of an hour remain in well-
sheltered places for days and even weeks. There is a winter change
of colour, as well. The warm golden quality vanishes and is replaced
by a tone of cold silver-grey, which makes no flashing answer to the
sun.
 The Winter Beach
Animal life has disappeared into the chill air, the heavy, lifeless
sand. On the surface, nothing remains of the insect world. That
multiplicity of insect tracks, those fantastic ribbons which
grasshoppers, promenading flies, spiders, and beetles printed on the
dunes as they went about their hungry and mysterious purposes,
have come to an end in this world and left it all the poorer. Those
trillions of unaccountable lives, those crawling, buzzing, intense
presences which nature created to fulfil some unknown purpose or
perhaps simply to satisfy a whim for a certain sound or a moment of
exquisite colour, where are they now, in this vast world, silent save
for the sombre thunder of the surf and the rumble of wind in the
porches of the ears? As I muse here, it occurs to me that we are not
sufficiently grateful for the great symphony of natural sound which
insects add to the natural scene; indeed, we take it so much as a
matter of course that it does not stir our fully conscious attention.
But all those little fiddles in the grass, all those cricket pipes, those
delicate flutes, are they not lovely beyond words when heard in
midsummer on a moonlight night? I like, too, the movement they
give to a landscape with their rushes, their strange comings and
goings, and their hoverings with the sun’s brilliance reflected in their
wings. Here, and at this especial moment, there is no trace or
vestige of the summer’s insect world, yet one feels them here, the
trillion, trillion tiny eggs in grass and marsh and sand, all faithfully
spun from the vibrant flesh of innumerable mothers, all faithfully
sealed and hidden away, all waiting for the rush of this earth
through space and the resurgence of the sun.
I find no more paths of little paws and claw-tipped feet, each one
with its own rhythm, its own mechanics of walking and running. The
skunks, who linger till the last chilled grasshopper has been pounced
on and eaten, are now lying torpid in their dark snuggles
underground, their heartbeat stilled to a ghost of its summer self.
They do not, apparently, make themselves burrows on the dunes,
perhaps because a wise instinct warns them that a burrow in these
open sands might collapse about them as they slept. November finds
them travelling up the dunes to the firm soil of the mainland moors.
The hill nearest the dunes is full of their winter parlours. Twice
during the winter I saw a wildcat of domestic stock hunting along
the edge of the marsh, and marked how savagery had completely
altered the creature’s gait, for it slunk along, belly close to the grass,
like a panther. A large brown cat with long fur and a wild and
extraordinarily foolish face. I imagined it was out hunting the marsh
larks who feed in the stubble of the salt-hay fields. Another time, I
saw the hoofs of a deer in the sand, but of this deer and its
adventures in the frozen marsh I shall speak later.
At Orleans, an otter, a rare animal here, has been seen, the man
who saw it taking it for a seal until it came out of the breakers and
ran along the sand. Every now and then, from the windows of the
Fo’castle, I catch sight of a seal’s black head swimming about close
inshore. In summer, seals are rarely seen on this part of the great
outer beach—I myself have never seen one—but in winter they
come along the breakers reconnoitring in search of food. They have
a trick of swimming unperceived under a flock of sea ducks, seizing
one of the unwary birds from underneath, and then disappearing
with their mouths full of flesh and frantic feathers. A confusion
follows; the survivors leap from the water with wildly beating wings,
they scatter, wheel, and gather again, and presently nature has
erased every sign of the struggle, and the sea rolls on as before.
There has been a strange tragedy to the north; one of those
dread elemental things that happen in an elemental world. The other
evening my friend Bill Eldredge, of Nauset, told me that there had
been a disaster that same morning off the Race. Two fishermen who
had left Provincetown in a big, thirty-foot motor dory were seen from
the beach to be having trouble of some kind; the dory had then
drifted into a tide rip churned up with surf, and capsized and
drowned her crew. A few nights later, Bill came south again, and I
stood for a moment talking to him on the beach at the foot of the
Fo’castle dune. A lovely night of great winter stars and a quiet sea.
“You remember those two fishermen I was telling you about?” said
Bill. “They’ve found them both now. One of them had a son at Wood
End Station, and when he was coming back from his patrol last night
he saw his father’s body on the beach.”

II
On the night of Saturday, January 1st, it was almost pitch dark
along the coast. In the murk, the eye of Nauset Light had a reddish
tinge, and, turning, revealed a world shaped like a disk and pressed
between a great darkness of earth and a low, black floor of cloud.
The wind was on shore and blowing strong. Some time after
midnight, a surfman from Cahoons Hollow Coast Guard Station,
patrolling south, discovered a schooner in the surf, with the seas
breaking over her, and the crew hollering in the rigging. I write
“hollering” here without shame, for “hallooing,” or whatever the
proper spelling of the verb may be, simply would not tell the story,
or convey the sound heard in the night. After holding up a red signal
flare to tell the men on the wreck that they had been seen, the
surfman hurried on to Cahoons and gave the alarm. The crew of the
station, under command of Captain Henry Daniels, then dragged
their cart of life-saving apparatus down the beach through a surf
running to the bank, and took off every single man safely in the
breeches buoy. The prompt and gallant rescue had been no easy
task, with the tide thus running high and the seas breaking over the
schooner.
I had my first view of her the next afternoon. She turned out to be
the two-masted, motor-auxiliary fishing schooner A. Roger Hickey,
Boston-bound from the fishing grounds. Her compass had been at
fault, they said. When I caught sight of her from the top of a path
descending the great earth cliff of the Cape, the vessel lay on the
open sand a mile up the beach to the north, a typical Boston
fisherman with a red bottom and a black hull. A vessel, I judged,
something over a hundred feet long. The whole vast view was really
a picture of singular and moving beauty; it would be hard to forget,
I think, that immense and jade-green ocean under a fine sky, the
great, sepia-brown beach with its overhanging haze of faintest
violet, the bright ship so forlorn, and the tiny black figures moving
round and about it. The beach had already begun to break up its
prize. Along it, on my way to the ship, I saw splintered wood, an
undamaged hatch cover painted white, and several bunches of
water-logged manila tags with a fish merchant’s name printed on
them in large black letters.
Presently there came walking toward me three ladies of Wellfleet,
good, pleasant New England housewives, each one with a large
haddock under her arm rolled up in a sheet of newspaper, the three
dead-eyed haddock heads protruding as from paper collars, the
three fish tails visible behind. Apparently the fish which the Hickey
had on board when she struck were being given away.
Arriving at the wreck, I found that her rudder had already carried
away, and that her timbers were badly wrenched, and her seams
opened. The ship’s dog, who had been thrillingly rescued in his
master’s arms, sat shivering on the beach, a most inoffensive and
unromantic brown dog with what looked like an appalling case of
mange. A handful of visitors, men and boys in workaday clothes and
rubber boots, were wandering round the vessel, their boot prints
making a chain about her on the beach, and other men were busy
puttering round the steeply tilted deck. Finding Captain Henry
Daniels of Cahoons aboard, an old friend of years’ standing, I heard
that the crew of the Hickey, two or three excepted, had already
returned to Boston by train, and that the vessel was so badly
damaged that she was to be stripped as soon as possible of all gear
worth saving, and abandoned.
Midships, a discussion was going on round the open mouth of one
of the fish holds. The Hickey’s catch was still there, a mass of big
greyish fish bodies, haddocks with staring eyes, cod with chin
whiskers, flounders, and huge lemon soles. The discussion
concerned the possibility of the fish having had a bath in fuel oil
when the seas washed into the Hickey at high tide. No one took
serious alarm, and the fish, handed out to all comers by a member
of the crew, proved excellent eating.
So they stripped the A. Roger Hickey, took out her engine and
such gear as they could, and then someone set fire to the hulk. By
the end of the winter, there was not even a splinter of this vessel on
the beach. She was the third wreck, and there were others to come.
As the winter closed in upon the beach, I began to look forward to
days when I might see what took place there during icy weather, but
such opportunities proved even rarer than I had expected. Thrust
forth as it is into the outer Atlantic, the Cape has a climate of island
quality and island moderation. Low temperatures may occur, but the
thermometer almost never falls as low as it does on the inner
Massachusetts coast, nor do “spells” of cold weather “hang on” for
any length of time. Storms which are snowstorms on the continental
mainland turn to rainstorms on the Cape, and such snowstorms as
do arrive form but a crust upon these Eastham moors. Two days
after the storm the snow has thinned to great decorative patches on
the slopes of sedgy hills; in another day only fragments, drifts, and
stray islets remain. There is even a difference of temperature
between the mainland moors of Eastham and the dunes. It is
warmer on the bar. On a casual winter day I have noted a difference
of eight degrees.
The work of cold weather—I mean weather when the temperature
sinks toward zero—is thus to be observed only on occasion along
this beach. When it comes, it comes all at once, creates a new world
overnight, and vanishes overnight. The agency that brings it is the
northwest wind sweeping down on us across Massachusetts Bay
from the forests and frozen lakes of northern Canada. I remember
one of the nights of its coming, a Thursday night early in January
with great winter clouds moving out to sea, opening and closing
over the cold stars, the wind on the beach so icy that I found myself,
when I first went out into it, breathing it in little reluctant breaths.
The next day was as cold and desolate a day as I have ever seen
upon the beach. The ocean was purple-black, rough, and covered
with sombre whitecaps; the morning light was pewter dull, and over
earth and sea and the lonely sands hung a pall of purple-leaden
cloud full of vast, tormented motion as it crossed the Cape on its
way to the Atlantic. Looking off to sea, as I walked down my dune to
go exploring, I saw a solitary freighter hugging the coast for shelter
from the northwest wind; she was plunging heavily in the great seas
and flinging up tons of spray with each plunge, and her bow and her
forward deck were already thick with ice. Gulls flew along the iron-
black and sombre breakers of the ebb, their white plumage chalky in
that impure and arctic light. The wind was a thing to search the
marrow of one’s bones.
Two beaches had formed in the icy night, best seen and studied at
low tide. The upper beach occupied the width between the dunes
and the line of the night’s high tide; the lower beach sloped from
this high-tide mark to the open sea. The upper beach and the dunes
were frozen hard. The frozen sand was delightful to walk upon, for
the tiny congealed grains afforded a safe, sustaining footing, and the
surface, though solid, had the resiliency of thick, unvarnished
linoleum on a good floor. It was an odd, an unnatural experience, to
hit one’s foot on a ridge of frozen sand. Fragments of wreckage
imbedded in the sand, wreaths of imbedded seaweed—all these
were as immovable as so many rocks. At the very foot of the largest
of the dunes, I found a male surf scoter or skunk coot frozen stiff. A
few solid kicks dislodged it, and I picked it up, but could find no
wound. The lower beach, that is to say the width that had been
covered by the tide during the night, was frozen solid at its junction
with the upper beach, but the fine slope down to the breakers,
though frozen firm, was not frozen through and through. Along the
edge of the breakers, it was not frozen at all.
Between these two beaches, one above, one below, one frozen
solid, the other crusted over, there ran a kind of frontier some eight
or ten feet wide, a no-man’s-land of conflicting natural forces. At the
height of the night tide, the seething foam rims of the sliding surf,
flung by the ocean into the face of the night cold, had frozen on the
sloping beach in layers of salt ice which preserved all the curves and
foamy ridges of the captured edge of the sea. The brim of a high
tide, that very spirit of energy and motion, lay there motionless on a
beach itself deprived of motion; the scalloped edges, the little curls
of foam, the long, reaching, rushing tongues, all these were to be
seen enchanted into that ocean ice which is so much like a kind of
snow. At its upper edge this image of the surf brim was but a glaze
of ice on the beach; at its lower edge it was twelve to fifteen inches
in height and fell off sheer, like an ice cake, to the beach below. And
north and south it ran, mile upon icy mile, as far as the eye could
see.
The subsequent history of this ice is not without interest. After
two days of bitter cold the wind changed in the night, and that
night’s tide quietly removed every vestige of the ice cakes from the
beach. The swathe on which the ice had lain, however, remained
half visible, for there water and sand had mingled and frozen deep.
Presently the upper beach thawed, the cold crumbling drily out of
the sand, and the lower beach, which had yielded its frozen surface
to each succeeding tide and frozen again during the ebb, remained
as the last tide left it. Between the two beaches, the width of buried
ice lingered for a fortnight, resisting sun and whole days of winter
rain. It had a way of coming suddenly to an end, and of beginning
as suddenly again; sand drifted over it, the tide edge seeped
through to it, the moving beach, forever adjusting itself to complex
forces, burst it open, yet it lingered on. For all of us who used the
beach, this buried width of ice became a secret road. The coast
guards knew it well and followed along it in the night. As I set down
these words, I think of the times I have come to a blind end and
prodded the sand with my beach staff in search of that secret
footing. Little by little the sun and the tides wore down its
resistance, and so it disappeared, and our searching feet knew it no
more.
The great marsh was another desolation on that same overcast
and icy day. Salt ice had formed in wide rims along the edges of the
great level islands, the shallower channels had frozen over, and the
deeper ones were strewn with ice cakes sailing and turning about in
the currents of the tides. The scene had taken on a certain winter
unity, for the ice had bound the channels and the islands together
into one wide and wintry plain.
On the next morning—it was sunny then, but still freezing cold—I
chanced to go out for a moment to look at the marsh. About a mile
and a half away, in one of the open channels, was a dark something
which looked like a large, unfamiliar bird. A stray goose, perhaps?
Taking my glass, I found the dark object to be the head of a deer
swimming down the channel, and, even as I looked, there came to
my ears the distant barking of dogs. A pair of marauding curs, out
hunting on their own, had found a deer somewhere and driven the
creature down the dunes and into the icy creeks. Down the channel
it swam, and presently turned aside and climbed out on the marsh
island just behind the Fo’castle. The animal was a young doe. I
thought then, and I still believe, that this doe and the unseen
creature whose delicate hoofprints I often found near the Fo’castle
were one and the same. It lived, I believe, in the pines on the
northern shore of the marsh and came down to the dunes at earliest
dawn. But to return to its adventures: All afternoon I watched it
standing on the island far out in the marsh, the tall, dead sea grass
rising about its russet body; when night came, it was still there, a
tiny spot of forlorn mammalian life in that frozen scene. Was it too
terrified to return? That night a tide of unusual height was due
which would submerge the islands under at least two feet of water
and floating ice. Would the doe swim ashore under cover of
darkness? I went out at midnight into my solitary world and saw the
ice-covered marsh gleaming palely under a sky of brilliant stars, but
could see nothing of the island of the doe save a ghostliness of salt
ice along the nearer rim.
 The first thing I did, on waking the next morning, was to search
the island with my glass. The doe was still there.
I have often paused to wonder how that delicate and lovely
creature endured so cruel a night, how she survived the slow rise of
the icy tide about her poor legs, and the northwest gale that
blustered about her all night long in that starlit loneliness of crunchy
marsh mud and the murmur of the tides. The morning lengthened,
the sun rose higher on the marsh, and presently the tide began to
rise again. I watched it rising toward the refugee, and wondered if
she could survive a second immersion. Just a little before noon,
perhaps as the water was flooding round her feet, she came down to
the edge of her island, and plunged into the channel. The creek was
full of ice mush and of ice floes moving at a good speed; the doe
was weak, the ice cakes bore down upon her, striking her heavily;
she seemed confused, hesitated, swam here, swam there, stood still,
and was struck cruelly by a floe which seemed to pass over her, yet
on she swam, bewildered, but resolute for life. I had almost given up
hope for her, when rescue came unexpectedly. My friend Bill
Eldredge, it appeared, while on watch in the station tower the day
before had chanced to see the beginning of the story, and on the
second morning had noticed the doe still standing in the marshes.
All the Nauset crew had taken an interest. Catching sight of the poor
creature fighting for life in the drift, three of the men put off in a
skiff, poled the ice away with their oars, and shepherded the doe
ashore. “When she reached dry land, she couldn’t rise, she was so
weak, and fell down again and again. But finally she stood up and
stayed up, and walked off into the pines.”

III
I have now to tell of the great northeast storm of February 19th
and 20th. They say here that it was the worst gale known on the
outer Cape since the Portland went down with all hands on that
terrible November night in ’98.
 It began after midnight on a Friday night, and the barometer gave
but little warning of its coming. That Friday afternoon I had walked
up the beach to Nauset Station, found Bill Eldredge on watch in the
tower, and asked him to wake me up when he went by at midnight.
“Never mind if you don’t see a light,” I said. “Come in anyway and
wake me up. I may go down the beach with you.” I often made the
patrols with the men at the station, for I liked to walk the beach by
night.
Shortly after midnight, Bill came to the door, but I did not get up
and dress to go down the beach with him, for I was rather tired from
piling up a mass of driftwood, so I sat up in bed and talked to him
by the dying light of my fire. On bitter nights, I used to put a big log
on in the hope that it might flicker and smoulder till morning, but on
average nights, I let the fire die down to a bed of ashes, for I am a
light sleeper, and the little play of flames on the hearth kept me
awake. Living in outer nature keeps the senses keen, and living
alone stirs in them a certain watchfulness.
The coast guardsman stood against the brick fireplace, his elbow
propped for a moment on the shelf; I scarce could see his blue-clad
figure in the gloom. “It’s blowing up,” he said. “I think we are going
to have a northeaster.” I apologized for not getting up, pleaded
weariness, and, after a little talk, Bill said that he must be going, and
returned to the beach. I saw him use his flashlight a moment as he
plunged down the dune.
I woke in the morning to the dry rattle of sleet on my eastern
windows and the howling of wind. A northeaster laden with sleet
was bearing down on the Cape from off a furious ocean, an ebbing
sea fought with a gale blowing directly on the coast; the lonely
desolation of the beach was a thousand times more desolate in that
white storm pouring down from a dark sky. The sleet fell as a heavy
rain falls when it is blown about by the wind. I built up my fire,
dressed, and went out, shielding my face from the sleet by pulling
my head down into the collar of my coat. I brought in basket after
basket of firewood, till the corner of the room resembled a
woodshed. Then I folded up the bedclothes, threw my New Mexican
blanket over the couch, lighted the oil stove, and prepared
breakfast. An apple, oatmeal porridge, toast made at the fireplace, a
boiled egg, and coffee.
Sleet and more of it, rushes of it, attacks of it, screaming descents
of it; I heard it on the roof, on the sides of the house, on the
windowpanes. Within, my fire fought against the cold, tormented
light. I wondered about a small fishing boat, a thirty-foot “flounder
dragger” that had anchored two miles or so off the Fo’castle the
evening before. I looked for her with my glass, but could not see
into the storm.
Streaming over the dunes, the storm howled on west over the
moors. The islands of the marsh were brownish black, the channels
leaden and whipped up by the wind; and along the shores of the
desolate islands, channel waves broke angrily, chidingly, tossing up
heavy ringlets of lifeless white. A scene of incredible desolation and
cold. All day long I kept to my house, building up the fire and
keeping watch from the windows; now and then I went out to see
that all was well with the Fo’castle and its foundations, and to
glimpse what I could, through the sleet, of the storm on the sea. For
a mile or so offshore the North Atlantic was a convulsion of
elemental fury whipped by the sleety wind, the great parallels of the
breakers tumbling all together and mingling in one seething and
immense confusion, the sound of this mile of surf being an endless
booming roar, a seethe, and a dread grinding, all intertwined with
the high scream of the wind. The rush of the inmost breakers up the
beach was a thing of violence and blind will. Darkness coming early,
I closed my shutters on the uproar of the outer world, all save one
shutter on the landward side.
With the coming of night the storm increased; the wind reaching a
velocity of seventy to eighty miles an hour. It was at this time, I am
told, that friends on the mainland began to be worried about me,
many of them looking for my light. My lamp, a simple kerosene affair
with a white china shade, stood on a table before the unshuttered
window facing the land. An old friend said he would see it or think
that he saw it for a half minute or so, and then it would vanish for
hours into the darkness of the gale. It was singularly peaceful in the
little house. Presently, the tide, which had ebbed a little during the
afternoon, turned and began to come in. All afternoon long the surf
had thundered high upon the beach, the ebb tide backed up against
the wind. With the turn of the tide came fury unbelievable. The
great rhythm of its waters now at one with the rhythm of the wind,
the ocean rose out of the night to attack the ancient rivalry of earth,
hurling breaker after thundering breaker against the long bulwark of
the sands. The Fo’castle, being low and strongly built, stood solid as
a rock, but its walls thrummed in the gale. I could feel the vibration
in the bricks of the chimney, and the dune beneath the house
trembled incessantly with the onslaught of the surf.
 The Bank After a Storm
Where were my friends at Nauset Station, thought I, in this
furious night. Who was on his way north, with seven miles of night
and sleet to battle through before he returned to the shelter of the
station and the warmth of that kitchen stove which is kept polished
to a brilliance beyond all stoves? It was Bill, as a matter of fact, and
because of the surf on the beach he was using the path which runs
along the top of the cliff close by its brim, a path exposed to the full
violence of the gale. As I mused thus, troubled about my friends,
there came a knock at my open window, and then steps outside and
a knock at the door. Letting my visitor in was easy enough, but to
close the door after him was another matter. Closing the door
against the force of the gale was like trying to close it upon
something material; it was exactly as if I were pressing the door
against a bulging mass of felt. My visitor was Albert Robbins, first
man south from Nauset, a big powerful youngster and a fine lad; he
was covered with sleet and sand, sand and sleet in his hair, in his
eyebrows, in the corners of his eyes, in his ears, behind his ears, in
the corners of his mouth, in his nostrils even. And a cheerful,
determined grin!
“Wanted to see if you were still here,” he said humorously, rooting
sand out of his eyes with a knuckle. I busied myself getting him a
cup of steaming coffee.
“Any news? Anyone in trouble?” I asked.
“Yes, there’s a coast guard patrol boat off the Highland;
something’s the matter with her engine. She’s anchored off there,
and they’ve sent two destroyers out from Boston to get her.”
“When did you hear that?”
“This afternoon.”
“Didn’t hear anything else?”
“No, the wires blew down, and we can’t get beyond Cahoons.”
“Think they’ve got any chance if the destroyers haven’t got to
them?”
“Gosh, I hope so,” he said; and then, after a pause, “but it don’t
look like it.” And then, “So long,” and into the storm again.
I did not go to bed, for I wanted to be ready for any eventuality.
As the hour of flood tide neared, I dressed as warmly as I could,
turned down my lamp, and went out upon the dunes.
An invisible moon, two days past the full, had risen behind the
rushing floor of cloud, and some of its wan light fell on the tortured
earth and the torment of the sea. The air was full of sleet, hissing
with a strange, terrible, insistent sound on the dead grass, and sand
was being whirled up into the air. Being struck on the face by this
sand and sleet was like being lashed by a tiny, pin-point whip. I have
never looked on such a tide. It had crossed the beach, climbed the
five-foot wall of the dune levels that run between the great mounds,
and was hurling wreckage fifty and sixty feet into the starved white
beach grass; the marsh was an immense flooded bay, and the “cuts”
between the dunes and the marsh rivers of breakers. A hundred
yards to the north of me was such a river; to the south, the surf was
attempting to flank the dune, an attempt which did not succeed.
Between these two onslaughts, no longer looking down upon the
sea, but directly into it and just over it, the Fo’castle stood like a
house built out into the surf on a mound of sand. A third of a mile or
so to the north I chanced to see rather a strange thing. The dune
bank there was washing away and caving in under the onslaught of
the seas, and presently there crumbled out the blackened skeleton
of an ancient wreck which the dunes had buried long ago. As the
tide rose this ghost floated and lifted itself free, and then washed
south close along the dunes. There was something inconceivably
spectral in the sight of this dead hulk thus stirring from its grave and
yielding its bones again to the fury of the gale.
As I walked in the night I wondered about the birds who live here
in the marsh. That great population of gulls, ducks, and geese and
their rivals and allies—where were they all crouching, where were
they hidden in that wild hour?
All Sunday morning there was sleet—more sleet fell in this storm
than the Cape had seen in a generation—and then, about the middle
of the afternoon, the wind died down, leaving a wild sea behind.
Going to Nauset Station, I had news of the disaster at the Highland.
The destroyers, in spite of a splendid battle, had been unable to
reach the disabled patrol boat, and the luckless ship had gone to
pieces. It is thought that she dragged onto the outer bar. Nine men
had perished. Two bodies came ashore next day; their watches had
stopped at five o’clock, so we knew that the vessel had weathered
the night and gone to pieces in the morning. What a night they must
have had, poor souls!
 There was wreckage everywhere, great logs, tree stumps,
fragments of ships, planking, splintered beams, boards, rough
timber, and, by itself in the surf, the enormous rudder of the Hickey,
splintered sternpost and all. The day after the storm, people came
down from Eastham in farm wagons and Fords, looked at the sea for
a while, talked over the storm with whoever happened to be
standing by, paid a call on the coast guards, and then went casually
to work piling up the best of the timber. I saw Bill Eldredge in one of
the cuts sorting out planks to be used in building a henhouse. Gulls
were milling over the surf and spume—the greatest numbers
gathering where the surf was most discoloured—and gulls were
flying back and forth between the breakers and the marsh. From
their point of view, perhaps, nothing had happened.
 Chapter V
WINTER VISITORS

I
During the winter the world of the dunes and the great beach was
entirely my own, and I lived at the Fo’castle as undisturbed as
Crusoe on his island. Man disappeared from the world of nature in
which I lived almost as if he, too, were a kind of migratory bird. It is
true that I could see the houses of Eastham village on the uplands
across the marsh, and the passing ships and fishing boats, but these
were the works of man rather than man himself. By the middle of
February the sight of an unknown someone walking on the beach
near the Fo’castle would have been a historical event. Should any
ask how I endured this isolation in so wild a place and in the depth
of winter, I can only answer that I enjoyed every moment to the full.
To be able to see and study undisturbed the processes of nature—I
like better the old Biblical phrase “mighty works”—is an opportunity
for which any man might well feel reverent gratitude, and here at
last, in this silence and isolation of winter, a whole region was mine
whose innermost natural life might shape itself to its ancient courses
without the hindrance and interferences of man. No one came to kill,
no one came to explore, no one even came to see. Earth, ocean,
and sky, the triune unity of this coast, pursued each one their vast
and mingled purposes as untroubled by man as a planet on its
course about the sun.
It is not good to be too much alone, even as it is unwise to be
always with and in a crowd, but, solitary as I was, I had few
opportunities for moods or to “lose and neglect the creeping hours
of time.” From the moment that I rose in the morning and threw
open my door looking toward the sea to the moment when the spurt
of a match sounded in the evening quiet of my solitary house, there
was always something to do, something to observe, something to
record, something to study, something to put aside in a corner of the
mind. There was the ocean in all weathers and at all tides, now grey
and lonely and veiled in winter rain, now sun-bright, coldly green,
and marbled with dissolving foam; there was the marsh with its
great congresses, its little companies, its wandering groups, and
little family gatherings of winter birds; there was the glory of the
winter sky rolling out of the ocean over and across the dunes,
constellation by constellation, lonely star by star. To see the night
sky in all its divinity of beauty, the world beneath it should be lovely,
too, else the great picture is split in halves which no mind can ever
really weld into a unity of reverence. I think the nights on which I
felt most alone (if I paused to indulge myself in such an emotion)
were the nights when southeasterly rains were at work in the dark,
immense world outside my door dissolving in rain and fog such ice
and snow as lingered on after a snowfall or a cold spell had become
history. On such southeasterly nights, the fog lay thick on marsh and
ocean, the distant lights of Eastham vanished in a universal dark,
and on the invisible beach below the dune, great breakers born of
fog swell and the wind rolled up the sands with the slow, mournful
pace of stately victims destined to immolation, and toppled over,
each one, in a heavy, awesome roar that faded to silence before a
fellow victim followed on out of the darkness on the sea. Only one
sense impression lingered to remind me of the vanished world of
man, and that the long, long complaints and melancholy bellowings
of vessels feeling their way about miles offshore.
 Dovekies or Little Auks
But I was not entirely alone. My friends the coast guards at
Nauset Station, patrolling the beach every night and in all weathers,
often came in to see how I was faring, to hand me on a letter, or to
tell me the news of the Cape. My pleasure in such visits was very
real, and between half after seven and eight o’clock I always hoped
for a step. When one has not spoken to another human being for
twenty-four hours, a little conversation is pleasant exercise, though
to the speaker the simplest phrases, even the simple idiom, “Come
in,” may take on a quaint air of being breathless and voluble.
Sometimes no one came, and I spent the evening by my fire reading
quietly, going over my notes, and wondering who it was who walked
the beach.
It is not easy to live alone, for man is a gregarious creature;
especially in his youth, powerful instincts offer battle to such a way
of life, and in utter solitude odd things may happen to the mind. I
lived as a solitary, yes, but I made no pretence of acting the
conventional hermit of the pious tract and the Eighteenth Century
romance. With my weekly trips to Orleans to buy fresh bread and
butter, my frequent visits to the Overlook, and my conversations with
the men on night patrol, a mediæval anchorite would have probably
regarded me as a dweller in the market place. It was not this touch
with my fellows, however, which alone sustained me. Dwelling thus
upon the dunes, I lived in the midst of an abundance of natural life
which manifested itself every hour of the day, and from being thus
surrounded, thus enclosed within a great whirl of what one may call
the life force, I felt that I drew a secret and sustaining energy. There
were times, on the threshold of spring, when the force seemed as
real as heat from the sun. A sceptic may smile and ask me to come
to his laboratory and demonstrate; he may talk as he will of the
secret workings of my own isolated and uninfluenced flesh and
blood, but I think that those who have lived in nature, and tried to
open their doors rather than close them on her energies, will
understand well enough what I mean. Life is as much a force in the
universe as electricity or gravitational pull, and the presence of life
sustains life. Individuals may destroy individuals, but the life force
may mingle with the individual life as a billow of fire may mingle for
a moment with a candle flame.
But now I must begin to tell of the birds who are wintering on the
coast, of the exchange of species which takes place here, and of
how all manage to live.
As I walk the beach on a bright and blustery January morning, my
first impression is one of space, beauty, and loneliness. The summer
bird life of the beach has completely disappeared, and at the
moment of which I tell, not a single beach bird or sea bird, not even
a resident gull, is to be seen on the beach along all these empty
miles. I walk, and no terns come swooping down at me out of the
dunes, scolding me for my intrusion on their immense and ancient
privacy; no sandpipers rise at my approach, wheel over the inner
breakers, and settle down again a hundred yards ahead. Summer
residents and autumn migrants of the beach, sandpipers, plovers,
yellow-legs, “knots,” and sanderlings, all have gone south with the
sun and are now to be found anywhere from the Carolinas south to
Patagonia. The familiar sanderlings—it is of Crocethia alba that I
write—lingered surprisingly late; they seemed almost as numerous in
October as in August, there were plenty to be seen in November, but
in December flocks were rare, and by Christmas, there were only a
few strays and cripples left behind.
New Year’s Day, on the deserted beach, I surprised a little flock of
ruddy turnstones, Arenaria interpres morinella, who took wing on my
approach and flew south close along the seaward face of the dunes.
I shall always remember this picture as one of the most beautiful
touches of colour I have ever seen in nature, for the three dominant
colours of this bird—who is a little larger than the semipalmated
sandpiper—are black, white, and glowing chestnut red; and these
colours are interestingly displayed in patches and bold stripes seen
at their best when the bird is flying. The great dunes behind them
and the long vista of the beach were cold silver overlaid with that
faint, loveliest violet which is the overtone colour of the coast.
As I watched these decorative birds flying away ahead of me into
that vast ocean world, I began thinking of how little has ever been
written or said about the loveliness of our North Atlantic birds. There
are plenty of books about them, there are a world of kind people
who cherish and love them as birds, but there is a lack of printed
material and discussion celebrating their qualities of beauty. Such
æsthetic appreciation of our shore birds as we have had seems to
have reached that showy and unfortunate creature, the wood duck,
Aix sponsa, and been permanently overcome. Now, the turnstone is
a lovely little bird, the least tern is another; the king eider is a
magnificent creature, and there are many more whose beauty
deserves comment and attention. A second notion, too, came into
my head as I saw the turnstones fly away—that no one really knows
a bird until he has seen it in flight. Since my year upon the dunes,
spent in a world of magnificent fliers, I have been tempted to
believe that the relation of the living bird with its wings folded to the
living bird in flight is almost that of the living bird to the same bird
stuffed. In certain cases, the difference between the bird on the
wing and the bird at rest is so great that one might be watching two
different creatures. Not only do colours and new arrangements of
colours appear in flight, there is also a revelation of personality.
Study your birds on the ground as you will, but once you have thus
observed them and studied their loveliness, do not be afraid to clap
your hands and send them off into the air. They will take no real
alarm and will soon forgive you. Watch birds flying.
The tide is going out, and the breakers are shallowing to chiding
curls of foam along the edge of the ebb. Gone are the thin-footed,
light-winged peoples, the industrious waders, the busy pickup,
runabout, and scurry-along folk. South, south with the sun, along
bright beaches and across wide bays, south with the sun along the
edge of a continent, with heaven knows what ancient mysteries
stirring in their tiny minds and what ancient instincts waking in their
veins. As I think of the tropical lands to which these birds have
flown, I remember walking one night along a tropical beach in
Central America. It was late at night, no one was about, the warm,
endless, pouring wind shook a sound like rain out of endlessly
agitated palms, and a magnificent full moon sailed through the wind
over an ocean and a surf that might have been a liquid and greener
moonlight. Suddenly, a flock of little birds rose up on the beach from
nowhere, wheeled, fell off a little with the wind, and then
disappeared completely into the turbulent splendour. I wonder now if
you were by any chance Cape Cod sandpipers, little birds!
But now to return to the North Atlantic, the Eastham dunes, and
the exchange of species I mentioned earlier in the chapter. As the
smaller birds have flown south to their tropics, birds from the arctic
north, following the same migrational impulse of the ebbing year,
have moved south along the New England coast, and found in the
open, deserted Cape a region which is to them a Florida. These birds
are the arctic sea ducks, many of them big, heavy, powerful birds, all
of them built to stand icy water and icy weather, all of them
enclosed in a water-tight pack of feathers which is almost a kind of
feather fur. These ducks belong to the subfamily Fuligulinæ, the
people of the outermost waters, but there are still other arctic
visitors, auks, murres, and even guillemots. The region which these
birds prefer is the region south of Cape Cod, where the currents of
warmer water swirl over the great south shoals. I have for
neighbours the three varieties of “scoters,” or more familiarly and
wrongly “coots,” the black-winged coot Oidemia americana, the
white-winged coot Oidemia deglandi, the skunk coot, Oidemia
perspicillata; I have scaups or blue-billed widgeons, Marila marila,
dipper ducks, Charitonetta albeola, old squaws, Harelda hyemalis,
eiders, Somateria dresseri, king eiders, Somateria spectabilis, and
others. It is possible that, before the coming of the white man, the
number of these winter outer-sea birds in the Cape Cod region
exceeded that of the summer birds, but now, alas! the shotgun and
the killer had their fun, the winter peoples have been wasted away,
and some even exterminated. To-day, the summer birds outnumber
their winter kin.
A new danger, moreover, now threatens the birds at sea. An
irreducible residue of crude oil, called by refiners “slop,” remains in
stills after oil distillation, and this is pumped into southbound tankers
and emptied far offshore. This wretched pollution floats over large
areas, and the birds alight in it and get it on their feathers. They
inevitably die. Just how they perish is still something of a question.
Some die of cold, for the gluey oil so mats and swabs the thick arctic
feathering that creases open through it to the skin above the vitals;
others die of hunger as well. Captain George Nickerson of Nauset
tells me that he saw an oil-covered eider trying to dive for food off
Monomoy, and that the bird was unable to plunge. I am glad to be
able to write that the situation is better than it was. Five years ago,
the shores of Monomoy peninsula were strewn with hundreds, even
thousands, of dead sea fowl, for the tankers pumped out slop as
they were passing the shoals—into the very waters, indeed, on
which the birds have lived since time began! To-day oil is more the
chance fate of the unfortunate individual. But let us hope that all
such pollution will presently end.
My beach is empty, but not the ocean beyond. Between the coast
guard station and Nauset Light, a “raft” of skunk coots is spending
the winter. Patches of white on the forehead and the hind neck of
the glossy black head of the male are responsible for this local
name. The birds sit in the ocean, just seaward of the surf—the coast
guardsmen say there is a shallow close by and shellfish—and the
whole raft rises and falls unconcernedly as the swells roll under it.
Sometimes a bird will dive through the oncoming ridge of a breaker
and emerge casually on the other side; sometimes a bird will stand
up in the water, flap its wings, and settle down again unconcernedly.
There are perhaps thirty birds in this flock. In Thoreau’s time, these
rafts of coots formed a flock which was practically continuous the
whole length of the outer Cape, but to-day such rafts, though not at
all rare, are but occasional.
Standing at the door of my house, I watch these winter birds pass
and repass, flying well offshore. Now a company of a hundred or
more old squaws pass, now a tribe of one of the scoter folk; now a
pair of eiders come to rest in the ocean directly in front of the
Fo’castle.
These birds practically never come ashore during the winter. They
eat, sleep, live, and meet together at sea. When you see a sea duck
on the beach, you can be sure something is the matter with him, so
runs a saying of the Cape which I had from Captain Nickerson. The
only way in which I can observe these winter folk is by using a good
glass or by catching a specimen who has got into some kind of
trouble and taken refuge on the beach. All these creatures are at a
great disadvantage when ashore, and have a world of difficulty
trying to launch themselves into the air; they make unwieldy jump
after jump, the auks being practically unable to rise at all upon their
wings. It was thrilling to walk the beach, and catch sight of a bird
sitting solitary on the sands. What might it be? What had led it
ashore? Could I possibly catch it and give it a careful looking over?
The keynote of my strategy lay in the attempt to prevent the birds
from getting back into the water, so between them and the surf I
would rush—for the birds would begin to move down the slope to
the surf the instant they saw or heard or felt me—and I soon
learned that a brisk countercharge was worth all the ruse and the
patient stalking in the world. Then began a furious game of tag, the
alarmed bird skittering all over the beach, being gradually driven by
me toward the dunes, till I manœuvred him into the angle between
the beach and the sandy wall.
My first prisoners were three unhappy little auks, Alle alle, who
had dipped themselves in oil somewhere on their way down from the
arctic—odd little browny-black and white birds about the size of a
pigeon, who stood up on queer little auk feet, faced me, and beat
little bent wings with a penguin look to them; indeed, the bird has
much of an Adelie penguin air. On the Cape, these auks are known
as “pine knots”—a term said to be derived from the creature’s tough
compactness—or as “dovekies.” They have always been “aukies” to
me. At the Fo’castle I gave them a generous corner floored with
newspaper and walled in with boards and a chair. I tried to clean off
what I could of the oil; I gave them what I could find of sea victuals,
but all in vain; they would not eat, and I let them go just as soon as
I saw that I could not possibly help them and that Nature had best
deal with the problem in her own way.

Razor-billed Auk
When they stood up almost perpendicularly and tried to walk
about on their little legs set far aft—they are pygopodes—it was
much as if an acrobat, standing on his head, were trying to patter
about, using the length between his elbow and his finger tips as
feet. These little birds used both wings and feet when trying to
escape me on the beach. They ran and rowed the sand with their
wings; the verb gives the precise motion. Moreover, what had taken
place was beautifully marked upon the tabula rasa of the sand—little
webbed feet running in a close chain, wing tips nicking the sand
once in each stroke. Coming south from their distant arctic, these
little auks do not fly above the ocean as do the more advanced
birds; they “skitter” along just over the surface of the waves and
keep well out to sea, even well out of sight of land.
One aukie I caught at night. I was on the beach walking north to
meet the man coming south from Nauset, and, as I flashed my
searchlight to see who the surfman might be, I saw an aukie coming
toward me, fluttering along the very edge of surf, all sticky and a-
glisten with fuel oil. Strange little fragment of life on the edge of that
mysterious immensity! I picked him up; he struggled and then kept
still, and I carried him back to the Fo’castle. The bird was small
enough to be carried in one hand, and as I held him, his duck feet
rested on my palm and his head and neck emerged from the fork
between my thumb and index finger. At the Fo’castle he opened his
beak, “chattered” with it (there is no word for that motion without
sound), transformed his short neck into a surprisingly long one, and
looked at me with a kind of “all is well but anything may be
expected” expression in his eyes. Every now and then he rather
solemnly winked, showing the delicate tan-coloured feathering on
his lid. I put him in a corner by himself, and when I went to bed he
had given up trying to pick himself free of the oil with his pointed,
sparrowy bill, and was standing in his corner of shadow, facing the
angle of the walls, for all the world like a small boy who has been
naughty at school. The next morning I let him go at his own
insistent request.
I found a razor-billed auk, Alca torda, cornered him, looked him
over while he threatened me with a bill held open and motionless,
and then left him to his own devices. I did the same with a
Brünnich’s murre, and I might have had an eider, too, had I wanted
one, for Alvin Newcomb, surfman No. 1 at Nauset, captured a male
one night while on north patrol. The eider, however, is a huge bird,
and I was not quite prepared to turn the Fo’castle into a kind of
ocean hen yard. So the eider at Nauset, after having most
unconcernedly listened to the station radio for a little while, was
returned that same evening to the North Atlantic. I had one chance
at a rare bird. On the first day of the great northeast storm, as I was
wandering about at noontime through the sleet, I found in the
mouth of a cut the body of a murre. The bird had been dead but a
short time, for it was still limp when I picked it up, and as I held it I
could even feel a faint vanishing warmth in its exhausted flesh. This
bird was the rarer murre, Uria troile troile, he of the sharper beak
whom men have almost erased from the list of living things. It had
apparently died of being caught and battered about for long hours
by the gale. After the storm, I tried to find the creature again, but
the tide and the storm had poured through the cut and swept
everything before them into a confusion of sand and ruin.
These ocean peoples live on such little fish as they can seize; they
pick up shellfish on shallow areas; they eat certain marine growths.
Some have a taste for the local mussel, Mytilus edulis. Unless the
winter is an exceptionally severe one, the birds seem to fare well
enough. Many stay late, and May is usually at hand before the long
lines of scoters fly north again under the command of their
feathered admirals. Such is the history of the migrant seafarers of
the Cape. A word remains to be said about the residents and the
migrants in the marsh.

II
About the middle of December, I began to see that an amusing
game of cross purposes was being played by the sea birds and the
land birds of the region west of the dunes. Food becoming scarce
upon the uplands, crows, bobwhites, and starlings began to take an
interest in the sea and the salt meadows, while gulls took to
exploring the moors and to sitting in the top branches of inland
pines. One wise old gull once discovered that there was good fare to
be had in Mr. Joe Cobb’s chicken yard just off the western rim of the
great marsh, and every morning this sagacious creature would
separate himself from the thousands milling about over the cold
tides and flutter down among the hens. There he would forage
about, picking up grain like a barnyard fowl till he had dulled the
edge of his hunger. I doubt if gulls ever do more. After visiting the
chicken yard regularly for several winters, the bird disappeared one
spring and was never seen again. He had probably lived out the
span of his days.
I pause here to wonder at how little we know of the life span of
wild animals. Only cases of exceptionally long life or short life seem
to attract the attention of man. I can open any good bird book and
find a most careful, a most detailed study of the physical selves and
habits of birds, but of their probable length of life, never a word.
Such material would be exceedingly difficult to secure, and perhaps
the suggestion is folly, but there are times when one wishes that this
neglected side of animal existence might have more attention.
During the summer, I never saw starlings on the marsh, but now
that winter is here they leave the uplands by the coast guard station,
and venture out along the dunes. These flights of exploration are
very rare. I have seen the birds flying over the salt meadows, I have
seen them light on the ridgepole of a gunning camp, but I have
never once encountered them on the outer beach. With crows, it is a
different story. The birds will investigate anything promising, and
during the summer I found crows on the beach on four or five
different occasions, these visits being made, for the most part, early
in the morning.
Chancing to look toward the marsh one warm October afternoon,
I witnessed a battle between two gulls and a young crow for the
possession of some marine titbit the crow had picked up on the
flats; it was a picturesque contest, for the great silvery wings of the
gulls beat down and inclosed the crow till he resembled a junior
demon in some old lithograph of the war in heaven. Eventually one
of the gulls seized on the coveted morsel, flew off a bit, and gulped
it down, leaving the crow and the other gull to “consider” like the
cow in the old song. Winter and necessity now make the crow
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