Journal of Informatics Education and Research

ISSN: 1526-4726
Vol 4 Issue 2 (2024)

Brics New Currency: An Investigation of Trade Dynamics to De-Dollarizing

Intra-Brics Trade with the Reference of Indian Bilateral Trade Contracts
Ravindra Kumar
Ph.D Research Scholar, Department of Management Sciences, Mahatma Gandhi Central University Bihar,
[email protected]
Orcid Id : https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5496-9007

Pavnesh Kumar
Professor, Department of Management Sciences, Mahatma Gandhi Central University Bihar,
[email protected]

Om Prakash Verma
Ph.D Research Scholar, Department of Commerce, Govt. V.Y.T PG. Autonomous College, Hemchand Yadav
University , Durg, Chhattisgarh,
Orcid Id : https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4306-1001

ABSTRACT
This article analyzes the current systematic barriers to currency swaps and trade finance using the national
currencies of the BRICS (also known as "de-dollarization"). We had suggests a quick, staged fix to bridge these gaps
and lower the risk of trade among the BRICS countries. The findings indicate that: 1) Russia is increasingly choosing
the Euro as its preferred arrangement currency within BRICS, indicating a disconnect between the goals of BRICS's
de-dollarization and the settlement currency choice of Russian traders; 2) the Contingency Reserve Arrangement of
the New Development Bank contains systemic barriers that prohibit direct currency swaps between BRICS Nations;
and 3) although financial technology applications and settlement and payment systems are being integrated, there are
no efforts being made to fundamentally address the systematic economic variables impeding national settlement use.
Keywords: BRICS Nations, Intra trade, Currency swap, De-dollarization, Foreign exchange, Bilateral trade
contracts

INTRODUCTION
In order to obtain greater control over transactions and avoid currency exchange losses, the BRICS countries are in favor
of creating a Multilateral Clearing Union as an approach of accomplishing their long-standing goal of de-dollarizing their trade
contracts and reserves. The Multilateral Clearing Union implemented the Contingency Reserve Arrangement. Nevertheless, it fell
short of its original objective due to its IMF linkage requirements and limited scope, which is an indication of confidence among
BRICS member states. Furthermore, several kinds of systemic barriers—which are covered in greater detail in the paragraph that
follows—obstruct the wider use of the BRICS countries' native currencies in trade finance.
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
The BRICS New Development Bank released its strategy document. An extended road map for the direction of the
BRICS nations' economic cooperation is provided by the significance of BRICS in the global economy and the International
Partnership for Development. The strategic analysis argues that reforming the current Western institutions would not be
helpful to the BRICS countries very soon. Because of this, it emphasizes the importance of creating a new Multilateral
Clearing Union (MCU), which will serve as a currency swap pool among the BRICS and handle issues related to
trade finance, financial crisis aversion, balance-of-payments, and the overall restoration of sovereignty through de-
dollarizing BRICS trade (NDB, 2017). This objective was again restated in the 2017 BRICS Xiamen Summit
declaration. Concurrent with the Xiamen meeting, the R5+ (Ruble, Rand, Rupee, Renminbi, Real) currency project
was unveiled, incorporating the currencies of BRICS+ nations as well. Its goal was to promote national currency use
for long-term projects, investments, the creation of a single payment card and settlement/payment systems, as well
as collaboration in moving the currencies of the BRICS+ countries closer to reserve currency status (Lissovolik,
2017).
The BRICS nations established the $100 billion Contingency Reserve Arrangement (CRA),that ultimately

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ISSN: 1526-4726
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gave rise to the newly formed Multilateral Clearing Union of the New Development Bank, to boost the number of
settlements in national currency and serve as a pool for currency converting in upcoming time. To ease short-term
tensions between a nation's current and capital accounts on balances of payments (BoP), the CRA created two currency
swap instruments: a liquidity instrument to close existing gaps in the BoP and a preventive tool to prevent future gaps in
the BoP. A country could only access 30% of the share funding for capital (the "de-linked portion") under certain
conditions; the remaining 70% of available funds required an on-track contract with the IMF.
Curiously, a swap transaction was defined as follows: "the central bank of the Asking for Party trades US
dollars (USD) from the central bank of the Providing Party as a substitute for the Asking for Party Currency, and
buying back the Asking for Party Currency in exchange for USD at an afterward date" (Biziwick et al., 2015, p. 316),
rather than having a direct currency swap mechanisms as stated in the MCU procedure report.
CRA took its cues from the ASEAN+3 Chiang Mai currencies swap selections which had been more or less limited
in scope, relied heavily on contractual arrangements rather than a real capital pool, and involved the IMF because of moral
hazard and a lack of financial observation capabilities. For example, the CMI/CMIM paradigm was largely criticized for
being wholly ineffective and for not contributing to the 2008 financial crisis. It fears that by implementing this structure,
the CRA is condemning themselves to a similar fate.
The main complaints with the CMI/CMIM structure seem to have been its large size, its IMF connection, and
the lack of an immediate response facility? According to Biziwick et al. (2015), p. 318, it seems challenging to
combine the objective of serving as a counterbalance of the IMF with the IMF relationship. Because of this, the
BRICS NDB's limited size (which represents the minimum amount of paid-in capital allocated to BRICS' New
Development Bank), promissory model of the CRA, and IMF linking (as demonstrated by the Chiang Mai currency
swap initiative) are all products of a fundamental lack of trust among BRICS member countries regarding their ability
to track and control their own trade and growth.
The dollar-denominated trade and the IMF's conditionality’s, the BRICS countries have inadvertently taken
on the precedence of the hegemony, at least in the CRA. "Developing macroeconomic analytical capacity and
modalities for a rapid crisis response facility" would be the steps required in order to break off ties with the IMF, and
maintaining the status quo is not necessary (Biziwick et al., 2015, p. 320). An internal credit monitoring system must
be implemented alongside swap instruments in national currencies as part of a concerted reform of the CRA that aims
to restore public confidence in the agency and lay the foundation for total autonomy on the IMF and dollar-
denominated transactions. In order to support CRA reform, Karataev et al. identified two main, fundamental barriers
that must be eliminated in addition to intra-BRICS currency swaps to the implementation of national currencies to
finance trade in the BRICS.
RESEARCH GAPS FOR DE-RISKING TRADE;
Karataev et al. proposed a multi-tier circular structure that would complement and coordinate BRICS trade
settlement efforts between national and intra-BRICS financial institutions, thereby creating a dependable system for
implementation a new local global currencies. These were the steps that made up the component steps: 1. Developing
and utilizing hedging mechanisms in BRICS currency pairs to lower risk management expenses; 2.Extending swap
agreements and reducing liquidity risk; 3. Encouraging currency trade while reducing transaction costs; 4. Reinvesting
excess trade income in local bond markets; 5. Growing the regional currency bond market in accordance with trade and
development objectives; and 6. Expanding bond markets and overseeing BRICS policy concerning the utilization of
these instruments to currency internationalization goals (Karataev et al., 2017, p. 111). As said earlier, steps 4-6
initiated the journey; these crucial safety measures, known as the CRA, are meant to satisfy step 3's needs.
To complete stages 1, 2, and 3, though, a few actions need to be taken. Specifically, Karataev et al. proposed three
crucial exchange mechanisms that should be developed to reduce transaction costs and mitigate the risk associated with
using national currencies in intra-BRICS trade agreements. This will help them overcome the barriers to the major first
three phases that are described and mentioned in this regard as cite above. These are the followings:
1. The BRICS banks' foreign exchange market, where businesses should be able to buy or sell a currency fast and
without incurring extra fees to settle in appropriate BRICS currency. This presupposes a large number of players
in highly developed, liquid foreign currency and interbank markets, as well as markets for transferable
financial instruments (Karataev et al., 2017, p. 18).

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2. Methods for hedging currencies to make a major cost reduction, direct trading within the proposed BRICS
currencies must be encouraged. Since this might potentially reduce risk management expenses, the
establishment and application of hedging techniques in BRICS currency partnerships must be incorporated
within this step (BRICS trading pairs). To provide the necessary liquidity, prominent public banks in the
BRICS countries may participate in currency pairing markets in the early stages (Karataev et al., 2017, p. 110).
3. The BRICS trading of commodities with each other. The creation of an electronic trading platform, such as a
commodity exchange, for the exchange of goods and derivatives of all kinds may be an additional means of
enhancing the use of LCY [local currency] in agreements among the BRICS nations. Using local currency
denominations to set market prices could serve as a middleman in the raw material transaction. When a
significant number of foreign investors trade on the exchange, agreements denominated in local currencies are
going to become international (Karataev et al., 2017, p. 112).
4. The IMF-related section of the Capital Agreement (CRA) must be removed in order to de-dollarize intra-BRICS
commerce, in addition to all these three exchanges mentioned above. If bilateral swap agreements are present
among all BRICS countries, this will enable direct currency exchanges. The existing IMF arrangement has to
be replaced by a counter-party de-risking technique developed within the BRICS countries that serves as a
distinct source of reliability for confirming the eligibility conditions of trade-necessitated impact currency
swaps. As a result, there will be no need for ongoing IMF agreements or the consequent exchange of US
dollars.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The Secondary data sources have been taken for establishing the de-dollarizing intra-BRICStrade in this research
investigation. The International Chamber of Commerce, the IMF, the WTO, the World Bank, BRICS Summits
agreements and the Reserve Bank of India are the sources of the secondary data to analysis the results. GDP log (for
the BRICS countries) is the dependent variable, and GDP is anticipated to be impacted by the independent variable,
trade of oil price log. The U.S. Department of Energy Information Administration, which manages statistical and
analytical tasks, supplied the oil prices. The official website of the United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development provided the genuine GDP figures. US dollars were used to compute all of the prices. The data set
included 28 observations of BRICS Summits every year from 2011 to 2023.
DATA ANALYSIS
The monetary structure of Russia's publicly available to the intra-BRICS trade for transactions settlements can be
used as a representative sample to track the progress made toward de-dollarization from the start of serious de-dollarization
activities in 2017, as shown in Figure 1 below. As of early 2020, 33.2% of Russian exports to the BRICS countries were
valued in US dollars, down from nearly 80% in the first quarter of 2018 (CBR, 2020). As of Q1 2020, only 13% of Russia's
exported goods were received in Rubles, indicating that the Euro has clearly replaced the Dollar as the principal export
settlement currency, even with the significant de-dollarization of Russian exports to the BRICS.
FINANCIAL AND CAPITAL ACCOUNT
When the pandemic first began, large-scale capital withdrawals amid uncertainty about the COVID-19 virus and its
consequences significantly damaged capital markets in the European Monetary Union (EME). But towards the last quarter
of 2020, foreign portfolio investment (FPI) had made a comeback to the BRICS economies, sometimes even exceeding
pre-pandemic levels, see (Table 1). Large portfolio inflows totaling USD 98.1 billion, or USD 63.2 billion more than in
H2 of 2019, were seen in China in 2020. While Russia remained a net lender in global portfolio markets about net outflows
of USD 12.78 billion in Q1: 2021, Brazil and India also saw large FPI inflows in Q4: 2020 that significantly exceeded the
values of the previous year. These fluctuations in capital flows had concurrent effects on exchange rates, with all of the
BRICS currencies decreasing in H1: 2020. The BRICS currencies which witnessed depreciations at the onset of the
pandemic recovered well in the second half of the year.
Table 1: Net Foreign Portfolio Investments (in USD billions)
Q1: Q2: Q3: Q4: Q1: Q2: Q3: Q4: Q1:
2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021

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Brazil 6.43 -7.55 -10.25 -7.85 -24.28 -7.06 -2.01 19.85 1.96
Russia 6.71 8.40 -2.93 0.50 -7.03 -15.87 -3.97 1.58 -12.78
India 11.5 5.2 2.0 8.1 -14.7 1.1 7.7 21.7 8.2
China 19.47 3.58 20.00 14.90 -53.20 42.40 43.90 54.20 3.5
South 1.0 1.9 4.7 1.3 -0.7 -0.6 -4.6 -0.8 -3.1
Africa
Note: Net portfolio investments in this table reflects liabilities less of assets. Source of data : CRA Research Group.
The South African currency Rand, Chinese Yuan, and Indian Rupee all saw q-o-q currency appreciation in Q1 of
2021; the Russian ruble also saw appreciation in 2021.Portfolio flows that have returned may have played a major role in
this recovery. See Table (2), It needs to be seen whether the BRICS currencies would come under fresh pressure in the
future due to COVID-19 pandemic-related fears, unequal vaccination rates, and rising bond yields in AEs. In 2020, Brazil's
inflation rate was kept below the 5.25 percent upper tolerance zone; nevertheless, between March and July of 2021, it
exceeded this limit. Brazil, Russia, and India all had higher rates of core inflation. Because inflation was well under control
in 2020 and 2021, China and South Africa did analyze and have to take appropriate actions in government policies
regarding it.
Table 2: BRICS Nations Average Inflation Rates
Countries July 2019-March 2020 April 2020-June July 2020-June 2021
(Average) 2020(Average) (Average)
Brazil 3.5 2.1 5.0
Russia 3.4 3.1 4.9
India 5.3 6.6 5.9
China 4.0 2.7 0.9
South Africa 4.1 2.4 3.5
Source of Data : CEIC and CRA Research Group

Figure 1; Percentage of settlement currency for Russian Imports to BRICS

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Source of data: authors calculations

This trend can be explained by the fact that, whereas previously preferring to do business in dollars, Russian
energy exporters now prefer to conduct it in euros (Yagova, 2019). This is due to the fact that if there is any kind of
a devaluation, they will receive more rubles. On the other hand, even with a gradual de-dollarization trend, as of Q1
2020, the bulk of Russian imports from the BRICS countries are still settled in dollars. The Yuan Renminbi is
probably the largest denomination of the "other" currency which is gradually growing in import settlements, since
China and Russia have recently increased the use of the Yuan and Ruble in bilateral trade (Simes, 2020).
Nevertheless, it is important to note that the majority of Russia's inter-BRICS commerce is settled in dollars and
euros rather than rubles or any other BRICS currency. .

Figure -2; Percentage of settlement currency for Russian exports to BRICS

Source of data: authors calculations

This suggests a discrepancy between Russian traders' settlement currency preference and BRICS' de-
dollarization objectives. The Euro has replaced the Dollar as Russia's selected export settlement currency within the
BRICS, but because it continued to be a non-BRICS third-party currency and because EU sanctions against Russia
could be extended soon in light of political developments in 2020 (e.g., disagreements between the EU and Russia
regarding the protests. However, it's crucial to remember that dollars and euros, not rubles or any other BRICS
currency, are used to settle the majority of Russian inter-BRICS trade. This implies a mismatch between the de-
dollarization goals of BRICS and the settlement currency preferences of Russian traders.
Even though the Euro has surpassed the Dollar as Russia's selected export settlement currency within the group
of BRICS Nations, the Euro still carries a similar but smaller risk of being subject to sanctions due to leaders meetings
events of 2020 (such as EU-Russia Belarus, the Navalny incident, etc). BRICS is currently pursuing the following
measures to overcome the remaining barriers to the use of national currencies: creating an internal trade finance
settlement system based on the Russian SPFS alternative to SWIFT (Yahoo Finance, 2019); creating a New
International Payment System (NIPS) by integrating domestic payment systems (Surve, 2018); and looking into the
prerequisites for creating a single BRICS cryptocurrency (CoinTelegraph, 2019a).
Additionally, the president of the NDB (Hancock, 2019) said that while the company has made progress in
adding more local currencies and diversifying its loan denominations, the complete internationalization of BRICS
currencies will require the establishment of mature bond markets in each one of the BRICS countries in order to
effectively compete with Western bond markets. This is in spite of the NDB's stated objective of financing 50% of
projects in the upcoming years. The Xiamen Summit statement and the creation within the BRICS Local Currencies
Bond Fund marked the beginning of this in 2017.

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With regard to intra-BRICS financial transfers, the previously mentioned initiatives seek to improve self-
governance. The fundamental problem that restricts the currency's wider use is that they don't address how to
eliminate risks associated with using national currencies in BRICS settlements. This view was reiterated in 2019 by
Russia's Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, who claimed that developing national currency international
settlements was more important than studying cryptocurrency secured by gold (CoinTelegraph, 2019b). Therefore,
in order to expand national currency settlement and overcome the aforementioned market constraints, with the creation
of mutually dependable, de-risked intra-BRICS trade contracts has been a critical intermediate and subsequent stage in the
de-dollarization of inter-BRICS trade finance.
This is taking place in tandem with the establishment of BRICS local bonds, the expansion of BRICS direct
currency exchange lines, the conceptualization and launch of an intra-BRICS crypto currency, and the integration of
BRICS settlement and payment systems.
DE-RISKING TRADE FOR SMART CONTRACTS;
In the mostly dollarized economy, smart contracts are beginning to gain traction in western organizations regarding
trade finance, commodities trading, and currency trading due to its autonomous execution capabilities and capacity to
remove middlemen from third-party legal and contractual bodies. With the use of smart contracts, trade finance
solutions may now reduce costs by up to 35%, do away with the need for one- to two-week settlement processing
timeframes, and eliminate the possibility of human error in the process (Blockdata, 2019).
However, by developing an extensive internal distributed ledger trading and smart contract system that
integrates the principles of trade finance, currency trading, and commodity trading, the BRICS nations can choose to
carve out their own autonomous route free from potential financial weaponization. Instead of overloading Western
(primarily American and European) trade channels with more jurisdictional and authority barriers influenced by the
United States, such as SWIFT, this system can be linked to the new intra-BRICS development and payment
mechanisms that are currently being developed. This is especially relevant in light of the increasing impact of U.S.
regulatory agencies towards the digital currency and alternative payment industries.
Complete BRICS interbank loans for trade finance will be made possible under such a system by a special
commodity exchange that is only available to the BRICS and has its own contract for futures for commodities options
for intra-BRICS buying, in addition to a number of conditional factors like forex options and futures contracts. The
BRICS traders eliminate the chance of participating in risky commodity and currency trading by acting as counter-
parties to all legally binding transactions this builds confidence.
DISCUSSION AND RESULTS
Real-time feed-in of market pricing information before and during contract setup integration with data on
cargo delivery to adjust the timing of order execution; call/put and contract amount caps that are specified by the
BRICS NDB. Smooth integration and communication with intra-BRICS settlement systems, Central Bank,
Commercial Bank, and New Development Bank swap lines. Scalability to boost the volume of transactions
Verification of contract execution by a decentralized oracle method utilizing market data low latency and high volume
contract support. putting money in designated accounts for short term storage via a distributed ledger. Prevent
unauthorized access. not limited in the manner that SWIFT.
The systematic activities that might get involved are as follows:
• Effective trade contracts are set up for execution after a specified time period associated with the delivery of
items (e.g., on the next business day after the projected delivery date) via the highly specialized BRICS trade
finance distribution software.
• For each configuration of BRICS currency pairings provided by the BRICS NDB Bank, traders concurrently using
the relevant dapps, set up commodities futures contracts and preferred for the currency hedging options in accordance
with the cost-of-carry laws and predetermined call/bid margins. They use real-time market data to help them do this.
They have a maturity date that correlates with the trade delivery and are configured as smart contracts.
• Contracts that surpass the credit swap limitations may be bilaterally canceled and settled in a currency other than
the original one. Daily checks are made to the NDB CRA influence pair currency swap connections to ensure that
the swap amounts are adequate for upcoming contacts maturing over the next thirty days.

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• To build confidence and lower risk, no margin trades would be allowed at first. Before settlement, full payment must
be collected. Consequently, the intelligent contract will produce the "worst-case scenario" completion amount three
days prior to the contract completion date, and funds will be sent to designated accounts maintained in the BRICS
centralized ledgers via the new intergovernmental agreement system. This condition can be lifted to allow traditional
trade financing if confidence has been established through a fruitful year-long trial project.
• As soon as the transit of goods is confirmed, the decentralized oracle networks will be updated with market data,
including current direct exchange rates, commodity prices, along with additional real-time rate data. This will enable
the trade settlement's execution amount to be calculated, together with the linked currency option and associated
commodity future, when the contract matures.
• The oracle network will handle contracts and issue the seller's last payment for exporting currency (or, in the case of
imports, for importing money). If the buyer requests one, they will be refunded the difference between the maximum
price in the worst-case situation and the real completion amount. Going forward, small- to medium-sized e-commerce
businesses will have comparable access to the BRICS market since clients have the option to redeem their monies using
integrated P2P payment systems globally or the BRICS coin in the BRICS Nations
CONCLUSION
The Integration Financing system of de-dollarizing intra-BRICStrade found to be the primary barriers to intra-
BRICS commerce becoming less dollarized: 1) Lack of an independent CRA credit monitoring system, which forced
the IMF to dollar-intermediate CRA currency swaps for this reason; 2) currency volatility, leading to it difficult for
traders to convert currencies while exporters utilize the advantages of contracts denominated in euros and dollars in
the case of devaluation; and 3) the absence of a non-Western commodities exchange, which would enable the establishment
of a market for trading energy futures and national currency pricing.
Therefore, a methodical strategies based on the smart contracts were developed in order to remove these obstacles in
BRICS currencies and lower trade risk.Therefore, some of the volatility brought on by fluctuations in exchange rates
will be lessened over time as the exchanges promote currency liquidity among the BRICS nations. Mutual intra-
BRICS investment and NDB loans for infrastructure and sustainable development are two examples of non-trade
BRICS financial flows that can be automated with smart contracts.

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