Asean E Sports (Growth of E Sports in Asean) 20231107
Asean E Sports (Growth of E Sports in Asean) 20231107
Sector outlook
Federation and currently Garena is the only sizeable Asean publisher among the roster of top titles
COO of Nasdaq-listed q Garena is the only sizeable publisher in Asean currently, with c.70% of revenue by our
Global Star Acquisition estimate coming from its hit title Free Fire (and Free Fire Max) and the balance largely
Inc., will be talking about from Tencent titles the company customises for Asean as well as some smaller self-
developed titles.
his journey, opportunities
q While Free Fire is arguably among the best in class in the action (Battle Royale) genre,
and challenges in the the pipeline of new titles from Garena is amorphous.
space. He has over 20 q Garena accounts for c.6% of our SEA Ltd target price of US$145, at a 14x FY25CL PE,
years of diverse a c.20% discount to the gaming developer universe.
experience having worked
Mobile gamers in Asean-6
for MNCs, being a co-
founder and entrepreneur
in businesses and having
served in investment
committees of VC and PE
CLSA and CL Securities Taiwan Co., Ltd. (“CLST”) do and seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As such,
investors should be aware that there may be conflicts of interest which could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider
this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions. For important disclosures please refer to page 18.
Growth of E-sports in Asean Asean E-sports
Figure 1 Figure 2
Figure 3 Figure 4
Mobile game downloads in Asean by mobile device Mobile game revenue in Asean by mobile device
By genre, lifestyle & puzzle games are the mainstream games. Adult gamers,
potentially given their family and workplace responsibilities, generally appear to
prefer to play hypercasual games. Such games are defined by their simplicity (both
gameplay and user interface), infinite looped mechanics (think of the never-ending
stages of Candy Crush, or the run-till-you-lose Temple Run) and can often be played
while multitasking. Other popular hypercasual game titles that comes to mind
include the likes of Angry Birds, Pokemon GO and Subway Surfers, and most of such
games would also fall under the lifestyle & puzzle genre.
We think that the gamer base in Asean should grow 4%-5% annually after
normalisation, and third-party forecasts suggest the same. The mobile gamer
population across Asean is at c.20% penetration of the total population, mostly in
urban populations where the adoption is expectedly much higher.
Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, FactSet and CapitalIQ - and profit from our evalu@tor proprietary database at clsa.com
Figure 5
Figure 6
In our view, a catalyst for this is the resumption of physical E-Sports tournaments
and events promoting various leading titles. In addition to being the home of
numerous E-Sports tournaments such as Dota’s The International and the Free Fire
World Series, the region is among the first globally to recognise E-Sports as a
medal-sporting event with its debut at the 18 th Asian Games in Jakarta-Palembang
in 2018 as well as the 2019 Asean Games.
Figure 7
E-sports now has its own Video games featured at the SEA Games
SEA Games since 2019 Video game title Platform Genre Publisher in SEA
Attack Online 2 PC First-person shooter Wicked Interactive
Crossfire PC First-person shooter Smilegate
Dota 2 PC Online battle arena Valve
FIFA Online 4 PC Sports Nexon, Tencent, Garena
Starcraft II PC Real-time strategy Blizzard Entertainment
Garena Free Fire Mobile Battle royale Garena
Third-person shooter
Hearthstone PC Card game Blizzard Entertainment
League of Legends PC Online battle arena Riot Games
League of Legends: Wild Rift Mobile Online battle arena Riot Games
PUBG Mobile Mobile Battle royale Level Infinite (Tencent)
Third-person shooter
Arena of Valor Mobile Online battle arena Garena
Mobile Legends: Bang Mobile Online battle arena Moonton
Tekken 7 Console Fighting game Bandai Namco
Valorant PC First-person shooter Riot Games
Source: CLSA, SEA Games
Figure 8
The interaction between Due to the nature of game streaming, it is increasingly playing a critical role in the
streaming platforms and growth of E-Sports in the region. As the E-Sports industry grows, streaming
game publishers is creating platforms benefit from more users who want to view the E-Sports gameplay. In turn,
a cycle of growth
game developers/publishers are increasingly tapping on streamers as a marketing
strategy, which benefits the growth of the video streaming sector, resulting in a
virtuous cycle of growth.
Figure 9 Figure 10
Revenue and user base of game streaming industry in Southeast Asia ARPU of game streaming industry in Southeast Asia
According to Statista, mobile gamers have grown to represent c.18% of the total
Asean-6 population in 2022, up from c.14% in 2018, and is estimated to grow at
5% Cagr over the next five years. Similarly, Newzoo reports that over 82% of
Asean’s urban online population are gamers and mobile gaming leads by a
significant margin over PC and console. Specifically, 80% of the urban population
plays games on mobile devices, 69% on PC and 57% on consoles.
Figure 11
Figure 12
Figure 13
Figure 14
Figure 15
Figure 16
Figure 17
Against this backdrop, Garena developed its hit publication Free Fire, which went
on to become one of the most successful mobile games not just in Asean, but
globally. Other local peers from Garena’s early days, most notably Thailand-based
Asphere Innovations (previously known as Asiasoft, notable for being the
distributor of several online PC games such as MapleStory and Ragnarok Online),
tried the transition towards mobile but was not as successful.
Figure 18
Source: Garena
In addition to Free Fire, other notable mobile games in Garena’s portfolio include
Arena of Valor, Garena’s second largest game after Free Fire, and two new titles that
have come to market recently: Undawn, an open-world zombie survival game, and
Black Clover Mobile, an action role-playing (RPG) mobile title. Admittedly, these
other titles had not been able to replicate the success of Free Fire.
Figure 19 Figure 20
Figure 21 Figure 22
Since then, however, most of these gains has been lost following the pandemic,
with QAU declining to 545m in 2Q23. Despite the surprising increase in QAU in
2Q23, possibly due to the resumption of physical gaming tournaments, we still
maintain our expectation that QAU will likely drift lower by 13%-15% to around
430m levels over coming quarters.
Figure 23
Against other mobile games, Free Fire is the most downloaded title, as well as having
the second highest net revenue YTD in Asean, close behind Mobile Legends. In the
action/strategy genre, Free Fire has the highest monthly active users in the region
at 210mn, double that of the first runner up, Clash of Clans.
Figure 24
Figure 25 Figure 26
Figure 27 Figure 28
Figure 29
Garena’s Free Fire and Average time spent per user per month vs key comps
Mobile Legends are the two
most downloaded games
YTD in the region
Figure 30
Free Fire is the most Top 10 action & strategy games by downloads YTD in Asean
downloaded Action-type
mobile game YTD in
Southeast Asia
Figure 31
It generated the second Top 10 action & strategy games by revenue YTD in Asean
highest revenue YTD in the
same peer group in the
region
Figure 32
It also has the highest MAU Top 10 action & strategy games by latest MAU in Asean
Figure 33
SOTP valuation
Segment Valuation method Base value Multiple Valuation Per ADR
(US$m) (x) (US$bn) (US$)
Garena 25CL PE on adjusted net earnings 388 14.0 5.4 8.3
Shopee 25CL P/Sales 12,554 4.0 50.2 76.5
SeaMoney 27CL P/Sales (disc. back to FY22 at a 13.6% WACC) 3,444 10.0 34.4 52.4
Net cash End-23CL* 5,126 5.1 7.8
Total 95.2 145
Source: CLSA. * - we assume 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 convertible instruments are fully converted. Diluted share count is assumed to be 657m
Figure 34
Figure 35
Source: CLSA
Figure 36
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Companies mentioned
Activision (N-R)
Apple (N-R)
AS (N-R)
Asphere Innovations (N-R)
Bandai Namco (7832 JP - ¥3,251 - O-PF)
BeLive Technology (N-R)
Capcom (9697 JP - ¥5,099 - O-PF)
CD Projekt (N-R)
Century Huatong (N-R)
Electronic Arts (N-R)
Embracer (N-R)
Garena (N-R)
G-Bits (N-R)
Giant Network Group (N-R)
Global Star Acquisition Inc. (N-R)
JOYY Inc (YY US - US$41.70 - BUY)
Kitty Live (N-R)
Koei Tecmo (N-R)
Level Infinite (N-R)
Moonton (N-R)
NCsoft (036570 KS - ₩259,000 - U-PF)
NetEase (NTES US - US$112.72 - BUY)
Netmarble (N-R)
Newzoo (N-R)
Nexon (3659 JP - ¥2,834 - BUY)
NHN Entertainment (N-R)
Nintendo (7974 JP - ¥6,432 - SELL)
Pearl Abyss (N-R)
PerfectWorld (N-R)
Riot Games (N-R)
Sea Limited (SE US - US$44.79 - BUY)
SeaMoney (N-R)
Sensor Tower (N-R)
Shopee (N-R)
Smilegate (N-R)
Square Enix (9684 JP - ¥5,128 - BUY)
Statista (N-R)
Take-Two (N-R)
Tencent (700 HK - HK$312.60 - BUY)
Twitch Interactive (N-R)
Ubisoft (N-R)
Valve (N-R)
Wicked Interactive (N-R)
Wuhu Shunrong (N-R)
YouTube (N-R)
Zynga (N-R)
Important disclosures Asean E-sports
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