NATIONAL LAW UNIVERSITY ODISHA, CUTTACK
A PROJECT WORK ON POLITICAL SCIENCE
UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF:
Prof. Ms. Shubhanginee Singh
SUBMITTED BY:
Akula Sai Saketh (23/BALLB/012)
Anshika Pal (23/BALLB/017)
B.A. L.L.B | SEMESTER 2
BATCH 2023-28
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. ACKNOWLEDGMENT …………………………………………………………………3
2. INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………..4
3. UNDERSTANDING 2004 DEFEAT…………………………………………………….4
4. IMPACT ON 2014 & 2019 ELECTION………………………………………………..4
5. WELFARE SCHEME & PRO POOR CAMPAIGN………………………………….5
6. IMPACT ON 2024 ELECTIONS……………………………………………………….6
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We would like to extend our heartfelt gratitude towards respected Vice-Chancellor, and our
political science teacher, Ms Shubhanginee Singh for giving us this opportunity to undertake
this project. We would also like to thank our friends and acquaintances who provided us with
unwavering support to complete this project. The contribution of our parents is to be
recognized, as they inspired us to strive for excellence and kept our zeal to strive for success
and to finish our project, despite our challenges. The researchers also acknowledge the IT
Department of NLUO, for providing us the Wi-Fi facility which helped us to get the
information for the research project. We also thank our esteemed institution, National Law
University Odisha for providing us the access for the required resources and articles that were
required to construct this project.
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INTRODUCTION
During the first term of Bhartiya Janata Party in the year 2014, a leader from opposition,
Rahul Gandhi, made a critical claim in the parliament against PM Narendra Modi that
became a critical part of BJP’s agenda the next term. He claimed BJP to be ‘Party for elite’,
‘Party for rich’. In the political arena of India, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) faced criticism
from opposition leader Rahul Gandhi in 2014, branding it as the "Party for elite" and "Party
for rich." This accusation prompted BJP to adopt a welfare-centric approach, learning from
its defeat in the 2004 elections. Implementing various schemes aimed at addressing the needs
of the poor, BJP saw electoral success in 2019. However, as the 2024 elections approach,
doubts arise regarding the fulfilment of promises made through these schemes. Failure to
meet expectations may lead to BJP being labelled a "failed promisor," akin to its defeat in
2004. In this is paper we are going to analyse the welfare scheme implemented by BJP with
reference to media reports and understand the impact on the 2024 election, drawing parallels
to 2004’s defeat.
UNDERSTANDING 2004 DEFEAT
BJP, in the 2004 campaign, focused on the national issues such as peace in Jammu and
Kashmir, building infrastructure, bettering foreign policy, etc that would truly better the lives
of poor, who are a majority in this country and to an extent overlooked the impact a good
promise of welfare scheme could do1. This idea, spread with the name ‘Shining India’.
Congress on the other side introduced schemes such as MGNREGA, and farm loan waiver
that actually made people believe in Congress. The issue of food security was also
completely neglected in the campaign, where failure to use the surplus food stock was
heavily discussed and criticised leading BJP to practically beg Muslims for votes that further
dented their image among Hindus.
IMPACT OF SAME ON 2014 & 2019 ELECTIONS
1
See https://www.rediff.com/news/2004/jun/08arvind.htm
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BJP in its 2014 manifesto2 talked about building strategies to counter the unemployment rate
by encouraging labour intensive sectors, setting up prize stabilizing fund to tackle price rise,
advocated
idea of e governance for tackling corruption and also talked about bridging gaps in public
service. Pondering upon 2019 manifesto3, doubling the farmers income, focusing on human
resource development indicators to good extent by focusing on the welfare of poor,
improving health care services, Development of MSMEs, etc have been promised. Not
undermining the promises around Hindutva, nationalism and recurring topic, the shift of
focus to human resource development can be clearly seen in 2019 manifesto and welfare
scheme that BJP government brought at the end of their first term have significant helped in
wooing the poor. To mention, 2019 manifesto has been very comprehensive, addressing
every demography. Major factors that has helped BJP in winning are its focus on improving
Credibility crisis, decentralisation of tax and governance and promise to improve centre state
relations and many other.
WELFARE SCHEME & PRO POOR CAMPAIGN OF
CONGRESS
During the midpoint and latter stages of its first term, the government strategically introduced
welfare schemes like Ujjwala, Ayushman Bharat, and Jal Shakti, aimed at addressing the
needs of the impoverished sections of society. This concerted effort served to create a
perception among the populace that the government was actively tackling the challenges
faced by the poor. These initiatives were effectively woven into the broader narrative of
nationalism and Hindutva, which resonated strongly with a significant segment of the
electorate. Additionally, by portraying these schemes as the personal endeavours of Prime
Minister Modi, the government successfully enhanced his image as a supreme leader. This
tactic, consistent with BJP's established practice of projecting its leaders as decisive figures,
further bolstered public confidence in Modi's leadership and contributed to the party's
electoral success.
2
See https://www.bjp.org/manifesto2019
3
See https://www.bjp.org/bjp-manifesto-2014
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The effectiveness of these promises remained largely untested due to prevailing conditions
during their implementation. However, as economic challenges mounted, exacerbated by
unchecked inflation since 2014 and the stark realities exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic,
confidence in the current government among the poor dwindled. This erosion of trust mirrors
the fate of the Congress party in 2014, despite its pro-poor stance. The failure to adequately
address economic woes and healthcare deficiencies has led many to question the
government's ability to truly uplift the disadvantaged segments of society.
To understand to ground realities of the functioning of these schemes, I would like to refer to
the CAG report on performance audit of Ayushman Bharat. The report highlights that nearly
7.5 lakh beneficiaries are linking to an invalid number, 9999999999. It also said that more
than 4000 registrations are made on single Aadar number4. This data clearly shows the
efficiency in implementing the scheme. Similar thing can also be observed in Ujjwala
Yojana, where government promised LPG connection with 1600 for initial refills
and love to encourage poor to switch to gas from traditional method of using cow dung or
wood, which helps in bettering women’s health and reduces deforestation. Minister of
petroleum said that more than 9
lakh have not refilled the cylinder who were allotted a cylinder under this scheme, pointing at
the inability of government to achieve the aim and how inefficient the scheme in itself was 5.
The proliferation of schemes without proper assessment of their efficiency, as highlighted by
a report of The Wire6, could indeed undermine the credibility of Modi's government. The
perception of unfulfilled promises and ineffective policies, coupled with instances like the
Aadhaar seeding issue affecting MGNREGA workers where nearly 12% of the active
workers have lost their job, may erode support among the poor and potentially sway their
votes towards the Congress or other alternatives.
Congress has been very active this matters, where Rahul Gandhi as a public leader has been
actively touring India under the name ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’, talking to people on the grassroot,
understanding their issue, giving them confidence that they will be heard7. One shouldn’t
forget the impact a leader can have on people by directly meeting them and talking to them.
4
See https://www.thequint.com/fit/key-takeaways-from-cag-report-on-ayushman-bharat-pradhan-mantri-jan-
arogya-yojana
5
See https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/energy/ujjwala-over-9-million-beneficiaries-did-not-refill-
cylinder-last-year-centre-admits-84130
6
See https://thewire.in/government/modis-drifting-flagship-schemes-and-failed-guarantees
7
See https://www.youtube.com/@rahulgandhi
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This could play as a major hurdle for BJP as Congress has been successfully, at least to some
extent, in attracting the poor. The active advocacy of scheme NYAY y can also work of their
betterment as it promises as direct transfer of 72,000 every year to the bank accounts of
individuals of BPL, based on two reports by government.
IMPACT ON THE 2024 ELECTIONS
Economic distress, inflation coupled with failed promises will dent the vote bank of the BJP
vis-a-vis poor. Recent defeat in Karnataka also points the same. Although state elections have
less effect on General election, something that one can’t overlook that BJP was in power for
last 2 terms with significant majority. The narrative of Hindutva can only take you so far. A
clear reason has been the inability of government to manage hardships during the economic
distress that effected rural regions, in particular and more than any other regions. Economic
distress in a the country has influence of affecting the ruling party and has been seen in the
past as change in the political power was more evident during the economic Distress and
inflation8. To tackle this issue, BJP has announced a subsidy on LPG cylinders of 200 as a
gift for Raksha Bandhan and also promised to provide 10lakh new connections under Ujjwala
for free9. This come as a surprise of a
party that has been actively criticising the practice of announcing freebies around the election
times, which they term as Revdi. This move clearly shows the panic of loosing vote bank of
the poor.
The abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir and the inauguration of the Ram
Mandir in Ayodhya have had profound implications on the political landscape of India,
particularly in terms of bolstering the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) appeal to voters. These
landmark decisions symbolize a decisive shift towards the promotion of nationalism and
Hindutva ideology, key pillars of BJP's political agenda. The scrapping of Article 370, which
granted special autonomous status to Jammu and Kashmir, was hailed by many as a bold
assertion of national sovereignty and integration. Similarly, the construction of the Ram
Mandir fulfilled a longstanding promise to the Hindu electorate, reinforcing BJP's
commitment to Hindutva principles. These actions have resonated deeply with a significant
portion of the electorate, solidifying BJP's image as a champion of Hindu rights and national
unity. As such, the enduring impact of these events is expected to continue playing in favor of
8
See https://www.livemint.com/news/india/have-politicians-lost-the-fear-of-inflation-11609915355781.html
9
See https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/bjp-course-corrects-reduces-cooking-gas-price-before-
key-state-polls-8915132/
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BJP in the upcoming general election, further strengthening its appeal among voters who
prioritize nationalist and Hindutva agendas.
Carnegie10, in one of its articles, said that Modi has a high public approval to an extant that he
is most popular and approved leader according to Morning Consult report. ‘Mood of the
nation’ a poll by India today also indicated that Modi’s image is intact within the public,
working in favour of the Supreme leader narrative.
Although, BJP might Experience a dent in the vote share from poor there is a high probability
that BJP is going to win the next general election. The question that comes out is will BJP
achieve the targets of becoming biggest single majority party or not?
10
See https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/12/07/decoding-india-s-2024-election-contest-pub-91178
