Greater China Technology Team

SMIC (0981.HK)
Rating Neutral
Target Price/ Target price period/ Upside/downside to target price 25.70/ 12 Month/ -5.5%
M&A probability (1 = high, 3 = low) 3
Market Cap (US$ mn) (price as of Oct 8, 2024): 34,102
Current shares outstanding (mn): 7,954
Currency: US$
Current Publication Date: 6-Oct-24
Previous Publication Date: 12-Aug-24

Team Contacts:
Primary Analyst
Allen Chang, [email protected], +852 2978 2930 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng, [email protected], +852 2978 1681 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Special Disclosure

Pursuant to Executive Order 13959, the United States has imposed sanctions
restrictions on certain Chinese companies that generally prohibit U.S.
persons from investing in securities issued by such companies. This research
report is not, and should not be construed as, an inducement to transact in
any securities in contravention of U.S. sanctions laws.
Month/ -5.5%
H-Share Valuation
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(US$mn) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E
Technology migration 28nm 14nm 12nm
Revenue 3,360 3,116 3,907 5,443 7,273 6,322 8,016 10,102 12,001 14,003 15,785 17,540
YoY -7% 25% 39% 34% -13% 27% 26% 19% 17% 13% 11%
GM 22.2% 20.6% 23.6% 30.8% 38.0% 19.3% 17.0% 17.8% 19.8% 20.3% 22.1% 23.1%
Gross profit 747 642 921 1,676 2,762 1,218 1,362 1,793 2,375 2,849 3,483 4,058
Opex 732 594 609 283 926 860 910 1,037 1,164 1,281 1,421 1,592
YoY 3% -53% 227% -7% 6% 14% 12% 10% 11% 12%
Opex ratio 21.8% 19.1% 15.6% 5.2% 12.7% 13.6% 11.3% 10.3% 9.7% 9.1% 9.0% 9.1%
Operating profit 15 49 312 1,393 1,836 358 452 756 1,211 1,568 2,062 2,466
Non-op 77 133 425 448 378 830 389 393 411 411 411 411
Pre-tax profit 92 182 737 1,840 2,214 1,187 841 1,150 1,622 1,979 2,472 2,876
Tax benefit (expense) -14 -23 -68 -65 -16 -63 -84 -126 -178 -218 -272 -316
Minority -57 -76 -46 73 380 222 30 90 121 164 221 299
Net profit 134 235 716 1,702 1,818 903 727 933 1,322 1,597 1,979 2,261
EPS (US$) 0.03 0.05 0.11 0.22 0.23 0.11 0.09 0.12 0.17 0.20 0.25 0.28
YoY Growth 72% 131% 101% 7% -50% -20% 28% 42% 21% 24% 14%

2025 EPS (USD) 0.12 A 17.5

26-27 avg earnings grow 31% B 22.8

USDCNY 7.30
CNYHKD 1.07
2025 EPS (HKD) 0.92
2025E Target P/E 28.00
Target price 25.70

A-H premium 273%

A share TP (Rmb) 64.5
SMIC (0981.HK) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
In USD millions 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026 2026 2027 2027 2027 2027 2028 2028 2028 2028
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24E 4Q24E 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E 1Q26E 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 1Q28E 2Q28E 3Q28E 4Q28E

Income statements 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24E 4Q24E 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E 1Q26E 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 1Q28E 2Q28E 3Q28E 4Q28E
23% 25% 26% 26% 23% 25% 26% 26% 23% 25% 26% 26%
Total sales/revenues 2,236 2,914 3,101 3,360 3,116 3,907 5,443 7,273 6,322 8,016 10,102 12,001 14,003 15,785 1,842 1,903 1,907 1,621 1,462 1,560 1,621 1,678 1,750 1,901 2,167 2,198 2,239 2,406 2,719 2,738 2,737 2,879 3,216 3,169 3,221 3,501 3,641 3,641 3,631 3,946 4,104 4,104
yoy % / qoq % 14% 30% 6% 8% (7%) 25% 39% 34% (13%) 27% 26% 19% 17% 13% 17% 3% 0% (15%) (10%) 7% 4% 3.6% 4% 9% 14% 1% 2% 7% 13% 1% (0%) 5% 12% (1%) 2% 9% 4% - (0%) 9% 4% -

COGS (1,554) (2,064) (2,360) (2,613) (2,473) (2,986) (3,767) (4,512) (5,104) (6,654) (8,309) (9,625) (11,155) (12,302) (1,092) (1,153) (1,165) (1,103) (1,158) (1,244) (1,299) (1,403) (1,510) (1,636) (1,748) (1,759) (1,907) (2,017) (2,180) (2,205) (2,244) (2,341) (2,520) (2,520) (2,566) (2,789) (2,900) (2,900) (2,829) (3,075) (3,198) (3,198)
Others - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total COGS (1,554) (2,064) (2,360) (2,613) (2,473) (2,986) (3,767) (4,512) (5,104) (6,654) (8,309) (9,625) (11,155) (12,302) (1,092) (1,153) (1,165) (1,103) (1,158) (1,244) (1,299) (1,403) (1,510) (1,636) (1,748) (1,759) (1,907) (2,017) (2,180) (2,205) (2,244) (2,341) (2,520) (2,520) (2,566) (2,789) (2,900) (2,900) (2,829) (3,075) (3,198) (3,198)

Gross profit 683 850 741 747 642 921 1,676 2,762 1,218 1,362 1,793 2,375 2,849 3,483 750 750 742 519 305 317 322 275 240 265 418 438 332 389 540 533 493 538 696 649 655 712 741 741 801 871 906 906
yoy % 41% 24% (13%) 1% (14%) 43% 82% 65% (56%) 12% 32% 32% 20% 22% 200% 85% 59% (6%) (59%) (58%) (57%) (47%) (21%) (16%) 30% 59% 39% 47% 29% 22% 48% 38% 29% 22% 33% 32% 6% 14% 22% 22% 22% 22%
Gross margin % 30.5% 29.2% 23.9% 22.2% 20.6% 23.6% 30.8% 38.0% 19.3% 17.0% 17.8% 19.8% 20.3% 22.1% 40.7% 39.4% 38.9% 32.0% 20.8% 20.3% 19.8% 16.4% 13.7% 13.9% 19.3% 19.9% 14.8% 16.2% 19.8% 19.5% 18.0% 18.7% 21.6% 20.5% 20.3% 20.3% 20.3% 20.3% 22.1% 22.1% 22.1% 22.1%

Operating expense
SG&A (223) (192) (189) (155) 21 68 356 (193) (153) (170) (253) (314) - - (49) (24) (81) (39) (54) (59) (61) 21 (49) 3 (55) (68) (38) (85) (58) (72) (51) (103) (73) (88) - - - - - - - -
Selling expenses (42) (35) (36) (30) (27) (29) (28) (34) (36) (38) (39) (41) - - (9) (9) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9) (9) (9) (10) (10) (10) (9) (10) (10) (10) (10) (10) (11) (10)
General & admin expenses (213) (157) (198) (201) (255) (266) (276) (494) (482) (559) (590) (649) - - (95) (119) (153) (127) (100) (106) (128) (148) (116) (161) (135) (148) (123) (169) (142) (156) (135) (186) (156) (172)
Other expenses 32 0 45 76 302 364 659 335 366 427 376 376 - - 55 105 79 96 54 57 76 179 76 173 89 89 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94
R&D (237) (318) (427) (577) (614) (677) (639) (733) (707) (739) (784) (850) - - (165) (187) (183) (197) (168) (178) (173) (189) (188) (181) (181) (189) (199) (192) (192) (200) (216) (208) (209) (218)
Total operating expense (461) (510) (616) (732) (594) (609) (283) (926) (860) (910) (1,037) (1,164) (1,281) (1,421) (214) (211) (264) (236) (221) (237) (234) (168) (237) (178) (237) (257) (237) (277) (250) (272) (267) (311) (281) (305) (295) (320) (333) (333) (327) (355) (370) (370)
EBITDA 746 1,069 1,096 1,063 1,177 1,625 3,262 4,107 3,025 3,673 4,620 5,735 8,367 9,572 1,070 1,097 1,054 887 715 736 767 807 748 884 1,003 1,037 1,001 1,064 1,273 1,282 1,297 1,338 1,566 1,534 1,924 2,092 2,175 2,175 2,201 2,393 2,489 2,489
yoy % 10% 43% 3% (3%) 11% 38% 101% 26% (26%) 21% 26% 24% 46% 14% 97% 10% 33% (4%) (33%) (33%) (27%) (9%) 5% 20% 31% 29% 34% 20% 27% 24% 30% 26% 23% 20% 48% 56% 39% 42% 14% 14% 14% 14%
EBITDA margin % 33.3% 36.7% 35.4% 31.6% 37.8% 41.6% 59.9% 56.5% 47.9% 45.8% 45.7% 47.8% 59.8% 60.6% 58.1% 57.6% 55.3% 54.7% 48.9% 47.2% 47.3% 48.1% 42.7% 46.5% 46.3% 47.2% 44.7% 44.2% 46.8% 46.8% 47.4% 46.5% 48.7% 48.4% 59.8% 59.8% 59.8% 59.8% 60.6% 60.6% 60.6% 60.6%
22%
Depreciation (473) (673) (906) (995) (1,096) (1,283) (1,840) (2,242) (2,638) (3,192) (3,835) (4,494) (6,770) (7,481) (526) (550) (569) (597) (624) (649) (672) (693) (738) (790) (815) (849) (899) (944) (977) (1,014) (1,064) (1,103) (1,144) (1,183) (1,557) (1,692) (1,760) (1,760) (1,721) (1,870) (1,945) (1,945)
Amortization (51) (57) (65) (54) (32) (29) (29) (29) (29) (29) (29) (29) (29) (29) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (7) (8) (8) (7) (7) (8) (8)
EBIT (operating profit) 222 339 125 15 49 312 1,393 1,836 358 452 756 1,211 1,568 2,062 536 539 478 282 83 80 87 107 2 87 182 181 95 112 289 260 226 227 415 344 361 392 408 408 474 515 536 536
yoy % 70% 53% (63%) (88%) 234% 538% 346% 32% (81%) 26% 67% 60% 29% 31% 330% 0% 54% (33%) (84%) (85%) (82%) (62%) (97%) 9% 108% 69% 3,835% 29% 59% 44% 138% 103% 43% 32% 60% 73% (2%) 19% 31% 31% 31% 31%
EBIT margin % 9.9% 11.6% 4.0% 0.4% 1.6% 8.0% 25.6% 25.2% 5.7% 5.6% 7.5% 10.1% 11.2% 13.1% 29.1% 28.3% 25.1% 17.4% 5.7% 5.1% 5.4% 6.4% 0.1% 4.6% 8.4% 8.2% 4.2% 4.7% 10.6% 9.5% 8.2% 7.9% 12.9% 10.8% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 13.1% 13.1% 13.1% 13.1%

Interest income 5 11 27 64 139 171 223 349 737 559 322 340 212 284 52 75 102 121 179 193 188 177 164 142 140 113 80 80 80 80 85 85 85 85 49 53 55 55 65 71 74 74
Interest expense (12) (23) (44) (32) (63) (73) (110) (126) (209) (194) (128) (138) (148) (148) (28) (26) (31) (39) (44) (48) (54) (63) (67) (72) (49) (7) (32) (32) (32) (32) (34) (34) (34) (34) (34) (37) (38) (38) (34) (37) (38) (38)
Net interest (7) (12) (17) 32 76 98 113 224 527 365 193 203 64 136 23 48 71 81 135 144 134 114 97 70 91 106 48 48 48 48 51 51 51 51 15 16 17 17 31 34 35 35
Disposal of assets (pre-tax) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Exchange gain (loss) (26) (2) (13) (8) 9 90 1 7 11 9 - - - - 6 7 4 (11) 2 (5) 7 7 4 5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Net investment - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Others income (loss) 42 (16) 33 54 48 238 333 148 291 15 200 208 346 275 8 42 32 66 55 276 (60) 19 (30) 24 10 10 50 50 50 50 52 52 52 52 80 87 90 90 63 69 71 71
Non-operating income/(loss) 9 (29) 3 77 133 425 448 378 830 389 393 411 411 411 38 97 107 137 193 416 80 141 72 100 101 116 98 98 98 98 103 103 103 103 94 103 107 107 94 103 107 107
Pre-tax profit (income before tax) 231 310 128 92 182 737 1,840 2,214 1,187 841 1,150 1,622 1,979 2,472 574 636 585 419 276 496 168 248 74 187 283 297 193 210 387 359 328 330 517 446 455 495 515 515 569 618 643 643
yoy % 67% 34% (59%) (29%) 99% 305% 150% 20% (46%) (29%) 37% 41% 22% 25% 306% (6%) 51% (34%) (52%) (22%) (71%) (41%) (73%) (62%) 69% 20% 159% 13% 37% 21% 70% 57% 33% 24% 39% 50% (1%) 15% 25% 25% 25% 25%

Income taxes benefit (expense) (9) 7 (2) (14) (23) (68) (65) (16) (63) (84) (126) (178) (218) (272) (5) (7) (10) 6 (9) (32) (11) (11) (11) (15) (28) (30) (21) (23) (43) (39) (36) (36) (57) (49) (50) (54) (57) (57) (63) (68) (71) (71)
Minority interest (31) (60) (53) (57) (76) (46) 73 380 222 30 90 121 164 221 122 115 104 40 36 61 62 63 (8) 8 16 16 22 22 22 22 30 30 30 30 38 41 43 43 51 55 58 58
Preferred dividends - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Extraordinary gain/(loss) - - - -
Net income 253 377 180 134 235 716 1,702 1,818 903 727 933 1,322 1,597 1,979 447 514 471 386 231 403 94 175 72 165 239 252 149 165 322 297 262 263 430 367 367 399 415 415 455 495 515 515
yoy % 66% 49% (52%) (25%) 75% 205% 138% 7% (50%) (19%) 28% 42% 21% 24% 181% (25%) 47% (28%) (48%) (22%) (80%) (55%) (69%) (59%) 154% 44% 108% 0% 35% 18% 75% 60% 33% 24% 40% 52% (3%) 13% 24% 24% 24% 24%
Net margin % 11.3% 12.9% 5.8% 4.0% 7.5% 18.3% 31.3% 25.0% 14.3% 9.1% 9.2% 11.0% 11.4% 12.5% 24.3% 27.0% 24.7% 23.8% 15.8% 25.8% 5.8% 10.4% 4.1% 8.7% 11.0% 11.5% 6.7% 6.8% 11.9% 10.8% 9.6% 9.1% 13.4% 11.6% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5%
- - -
EPS - basic 0.06 0.09 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.11 0.22 0.23 0.11 0.09 0.12 0.17 0.20 0.25 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
EPS - fully diluted 0.06 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.10 0.21 0.23 0.11 0.09 0.12 0.17 0.20 0.25 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

Common dividends declared - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Dividends per share - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Weighted avg. adj. shares outstanding 4,207 4,226 4,604 4,967 5,052 6,677 7,900 7,907 7,926 7,953 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,904 7,905 7,907 7,915 7,913 7,924 7,932 7,946 7,947 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954
Fully diluted shares outstanding (mn) 4,326 4,564 5,032 5,026 5,679 7,371 7,934 7,935 7,955 7,976 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,945 7,935 7,923 7,939 7,941 7,957 7,959 7,968 7,963 7,977 7,977 7,977 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954
Period end shares outstanding (mn) 4,207 4,251 4,914 5,040 5,055 7,700 7,904 7,915 7,946 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,904 7,905 7,907 7,915 7,913 7,924 7,932 7,946 7,947 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954

Margin and growth analysis 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24E 4Q24E 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E 1Q26E 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 1Q28E 2Q28E 3Q28E 4Q28E

Margins
OPEX/sales 20.6% 17.5% 19.9% 21.8% 19.1% 15.6% 5.2% 12.7% 13.6% 11.3% 10.3% 9.7% 9.1% 9.0% 11.6% 11.1% 13.9% 14.6% 15.1% 15.2% 14.5% 10.0% 13.6% 9.4% 10.9% 11.7% 10.6% 11.5% 9.2% 9.9% 9.8% 10.8% 8.7% 9.6% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
Selling expenses 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% - - 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% - - - - - - - -
General & admin expenses 9.5% 5.4% 6.4% 6.0% 8.2% 6.8% 5.1% 6.8% 7.6% 7.0% 5.8% 5.4% - - 5.1% 6.3% 8.0% 7.9% 6.8% 6.8% 7.9% 8.8% 6.6% 8.4% 6.2% 6.7% 5.5% 7.0% 5.2% 5.7% 4.9% 6.5% 4.9% 5.4% - - - - - - - -
R&D 10.6% 10.9% 13.8% 17.2% 19.7% 17.3% 11.7% 10.1% 11.2% 9.2% 7.8% 7.1% - - 9.0% 9.9% 9.6% 12.2% 11.5% 11.4% 10.7% 11.3% 10.7% 9.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.9% 8.0% 7.1% 7.3% 7.9% 7.2% 6.5% 6.9% - - - - - - - -
Gross margin 30.5% 29.2% 23.9% 22.2% 20.6% 23.6% 30.8% 38.0% 19.3% 17.0% 17.8% 19.8% 20.3% 22.1% 40.7% 39.4% 38.9% 32.0% 20.8% 20.3% 19.8% 16.4% 13.7% 13.9% 19.3% 19.9% 14.8% 16.2% 19.8% 19.5% 18.0% 18.7% 21.6% 20.5% 20.3% 20.3% 20.3% 20.3% 22.1% 22.1% 22.1% 22.1%
EBITDA margin 33.3% 36.7% 35.4% 31.6% 37.8% 41.6% 59.9% 56.5% 47.9% 45.8% 45.7% 47.8% 59.8% 60.6% 58.1% 57.6% 55.3% 54.7% 48.9% 47.2% 47.3% 48.1% 42.7% 46.5% 46.3% 47.2% 44.7% 44.2% 46.8% 46.8% 47.4% 46.5% 48.7% 48.4% 59.8% 59.8% 59.8% 59.8% 60.6% 60.6% 60.6% 60.6%
EBIT margin 9.9% 11.6% 4.0% 0.4% 1.6% 8.0% 25.6% 25.2% 5.7% 5.6% 7.5% 10.1% 11.2% 13.1% 29.1% 28.3% 25.1% 17.4% 5.7% 5.1% 5.4% 6.4% 0.1% 4.6% 8.4% 8.2% 4.2% 4.7% 10.6% 9.5% 8.2% 7.9% 12.9% 10.8% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 13.1% 13.1% 13.1% 13.1%
Pre-tax margin 10.3% 10.6% 4.1% 2.7% 5.9% 18.9% 33.8% 30.4% 18.8% 10.5% 11.4% 13.5% 14.1% 15.7% 31.2% 33.4% 30.7% 25.9% 18.9% 31.8% 10.4% 14.8% 4.3% 9.8% 13.1% 13.5% 8.6% 8.7% 14.2% 13.1% 12.0% 11.5% 16.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 15.7% 15.7% 15.7% 15.7%
Tax rate (as a % of EBT excluding asso 3.7% (2.1%) 1.4% 15.8% 12.8% 9.3% 3.5% 0.7% 5.3% 9.9% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% (1.5%) 3.2% 6.4% 6.8% 4.3% 14.6% 7.9% 10.0% 10.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Net margins 11.3% 12.9% 5.8% 4.0% 7.5% 18.3% 31.3% 25.0% 14.3% 9.1% 9.2% 11.0% 11.4% 12.5% 24.3% 27.0% 24.7% 23.8% 15.8% 25.8% 5.8% 10.4% 4.1% 8.7% 11.0% 11.5% 6.7% 6.8% 11.9% 10.8% 9.6% 9.1% 13.4% 11.6% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5%

Sequential growth
Revenue 13.5% 30.3% 6.4% 8.3% (7.3%) 25.4% 39.3% 33.6% (13.1%) 26.8% 26.0% 18.8% 16.7% 12.7% 16.6% 3.3% 0.2% (15.0%) (9.8%) 6.7% 3.9% 3.6% 4.3% 8.6% 14.0% 1.4% 1.9% 7.5% 13.0% 0.7% (0.0%) 5.2% 11.7% (1.5%) 1.6% 8.7% 4.0% - (0.3%) 8.7% 4.0% -
Operating profit 70.5% 52.8% (63.2%) (88.3%) 234.1% 537.8% 346.4% 31.8% (80.5%) 26.3% 67.3% 60.1% 29.5% 31.5% 27.6% 0.6% (11.4%) (40.9%) (70.5%) (4.2%) 9.5% 22.8% (97.8%) 3,521.8% 108.3% (0.4%) (47.6%) 18.4% 157.9% (9.9%) (13.4%) 0.7% 82.4% (17.1%) 4.9% 8.7% 4.0% - 16.3% 8.7% 4.0% -
Pretax profit 67.2% 34.2% (58.6%) (28.5%) 98.8% 304.6% 149.6% 20.3% (46.4%) (29.2%) 36.7% 41.0% 22.0% 24.9% (9.1%) 10.8% (8.1%) (28.3%) (34.2%) 79.7% (66.1%) 47.8% (70.0%) 151.3% 51.3% 5.0% (35.0%) 9.0% 84.1% (7.4%) (8.5%) 0.5% 56.8% (13.7%) 2.0% 8.7% 4.0% - 10.5% 8.7% 4.0% -
Net profit 65.7% 48.6% (52.3%) (25.4%) 75.1% 204.9% 137.8% 6.8% (50.4%) (19.4%) 28.4% 41.6% 20.8% 23.9% (16.2%) 15.0% (8.5%) (18.1%) (40.1%) 74.3% (76.7%) 85.9% (58.9%) 129.2% 45.3% 5.3% (40.7%) 10.4% 95.6% (7.9%) (11.8%) 0.6% 63.3% (14.7%) 0.1% 8.7% 4.0% - 9.6% 8.7% 4.0% -
EPS 33.2% 48.0% (56.2%) (30.8%) 72.1% 130.7% 101.0% 6.7% (50.5%) (19.7%) 28.3% 41.6% 20.8% 23.9% (16.2%) 15.0% (8.5%) (18.2%) (40.0%) 74.0% (76.7%) 85.5% (58.9%) 129.0% 45.3% 5.3% (40.7%) 10.4% 95.6% (7.9%) (11.8%) 0.6% 63.3% (14.7%) 0.1% 8.7% 4.0% - 9.6% 8.7% 4.0% -
EPS YoY (for quarterly) 180.8% (25.3%) 46.4% (27.9%) (48.4%) (21.9%) (80.1%) (54.9%) (69.1%) (59.3%) 153.7% 44.0% 107.8% 0.2% 34.8% 17.9% 75.3% 59.7% 33.4% 23.6% 40.3% 51.7% (3.4%) 13.2% 23.9% 23.9% 23.9% 23.9%
Other income statement assumptions

Operating expenses
Selling expenses % of QoQ sales growth
General & admin expenses % of QoQ sales growth
R&D % of yoy sales growth

Interest income calculation:

Previous cash balance 603 1,005 2,126 1,838 1,786 2,239 9,827 8,582 6,933 6,215 4,287 4,256 4,814 6,448
Interest income as a % of cash 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 3.5% 7.8% 7.6% 2.3% 4.1% 10.6% 9.0% 7.5% 8.0% 4.4% 4.4%
Previous Cash + Financial assets at amortised cost 1,786 2,239 11,465 10,347 10,958 7,268 4,340 3,309 2,867 4,501
Interest rate including financial assets 7.8% 7.6% 1.9% 3.4% 6.7% 7.7% 7.4% 10.3% 7.4% 6.3%
Interest income including financial assets

Interest expense calculation:

Average debt 1,352 2,220 3,169 3,370 3,247 4,294 5,624 6,857 8,769 9,701 9,851 10,601 11,351 11,351
Interest charges (12) (23) (44) (32) (63) (73) (110) (126) (209) (194) (128) (138) (148) (148)
Total interest charges (as a % of avg. 0.9% 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 2.0% 1.7% 2.0% 1.8% 2.4% 2.0% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%

Investment income from associates and JVs

Long-term investment under equity met - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
As a % of interest in associates 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Financial assets at amortised cost - - 1,639 1,766 4,026 1,053 53 (947) (1,947) (1,947) (1,947)

Balance sheet 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E

Cash and equivalents 1,005 2,126 1,838 1,786 2,239 9,827 8,582 6,933 6,215 4,287 4,256 4,814 6,448 7,296
Net receivables 357 490 407 410 474 446 1,215 1,303 1,170 1,465 1,856 1,958 2,109 2,130
Inventory/stocks 387 464 623 593 629 799 1,194 1,911 2,736 2,733 2,958 3,108 3,615 3,665
Other current assets 840 604 1,301 3,360 3,533 4,100 4,227 6,487 3,514 2,514 1,514 514 514 514
Current assets 2,590 3,684 4,169 6,150 6,874 15,171 15,218 16,634 13,635 11,000 10,583 10,394 12,686 13,605

Gross PP&E/Fixed assets 11,335 13,751 15,372 16,557 18,632 24,296 28,259 35,095 42,823 50,890 59,602 68,837 78,612 88,340
Less accumulated depreciation (7,431) (8,064) (8,849) (9,779) (10,874) (12,158) (13,998) (16,240) (18,878) (22,069) (25,904) (30,398) (37,168) (44,649)
Net PP&E/Fixed assets 3,904 5,687 6,523 6,778 7,757 12,138 14,261 18,856 23,945 28,820 33,698 38,438 41,444 43,691
Gross intangibles 391 450 484 452 458 472 487 495 512 572 632 692 752 812
Accumulated amortization (167) (201) (264) (329) (361) (390) (420) (449) (479) (508) (537) (567) (596) (625)
Net intangibles 224 249 220 123 97 82 68 45 34 64 95 126 156 187
Total investments 199 254 790 1,151 1,166 3,268 5,826 7,683 9,418 9,418 9,418 9,418 9,418 9,418
Other long-term assets 198 241 216 223 543 662 739 590 755 755 755 755 755 755
Total assets 7,115 10,115 11,918 14,424 16,438 31,321 36,111 43,808 47,787 50,058 54,549 59,132 64,460 67,656

Accounts payable 885 781 838 823 1,034 1,649 1,830 3,022 3,728 4,002 5,650 5,532 7,426 6,864
Short-term debt and current portion of 506 687 441 1,247 849 1,240 789 1,268 1,216 1,516 1,516 1,516 1,516 1,516
Other current liabilities 376 513 628 789 1,322 984 1,834 2,735 2,657 2,657 2,657 2,657 2,657 2,657
Current liabilities 1,767 1,981 1,907 2,859 3,205 3,873 4,454 7,025 7,602 8,176 9,823 9,705 11,600 11,038

Long-term debt 909 2,338 2,872 2,179 2,218 4,280 4,938 6,718 8,335 8,335 8,335 9,835 9,835 9,835
Other long-term liabilities/creditors 249 393 418 462 817 1,486 1,282 1,103 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005
Total long-term liabilities 1,158 2,731 3,290 2,642 3,035 5,766 6,219 7,821 9,340 9,340 9,340 10,840 10,840 10,840
Total liabilities 2,925 4,712 5,197 5,501 6,240 9,639 10,673 14,846 16,942 17,516 19,164 20,545 22,440 21,878

Preferred shares - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Common stock (+APIC) 4,921 4,968 4,847 5,013 5,032 13,543 13,868 13,900 14,117 14,117 14,117 14,117 14,117 14,117
Treasury stock - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit (1,287) (911) 187 331 637 1,332 3,281 5,250 5,680 6,408 7,341 8,663 10,260 12,240
Other common equity 97 94 199 673 564 299 - - 319 319 319 319 319 319
Total common equity 3,730 4,151 5,233 6,018 6,233 15,175 17,150 19,150 20,116 20,843 21,777 23,099 24,696 26,675
Minority interest (balance sheet) 460 1,253 1,488 2,906 3,965 6,507 8,288 9,811 10,730 11,699 13,609 15,488 17,324 19,103
Total shareholders funds/equity 4,190 5,403 6,721 8,924 10,198 21,682 25,438 28,961 30,846 32,542 35,386 38,587 42,020 45,778
Total liabilities and equity 7,115 10,115 11,918 14,424 16,438 31,321 36,111 43,808 47,787 50,058 54,549 59,132 64,460 67,656

Balance sheet assumptions and other calculations

Net receivable days 60 53 53 44 52 43 56 63 71 60 60 58 53 49

Inventory days 83 75 84 85 90 87 97 126 166 150 125 115 110 108
Net payable days 180 147 125 116 137 164 169 196 241 212 212 212 212 212
Cash conversion cycle (37) (19) 12 13 5 (34) (16) (7) (4) (2) (27) (39) (49) (55)
Book value per share 0.89 0.98 1.06 1.19 1.23 1.97 2.17 2.42 2.53 2.62 2.74 2.90 3.10 3.35
Net working capital 823 1,703 2,262 3,290 3,669 11,299 10,764 9,609 6,034 2,825 760 689 1,086 2,566
Net debt 410 899 1,475 1,640 829 (4,306) (2,855) 1,054 3,336 5,564 5,595 6,537 4,903 4,055
Net debt (bbg) 127 868 798 1,640
Dividend calculation:
Net income 253 377 180 134 235 716 1,702 1,818 903 727 933 1,322 1,597 1,979
Cash dividend payout - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Stock dividend payout

Cash flow statements 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E

Income pre-preferred share dividend 253 377 180 134 235 716 1,702 1,818 903 727 933 1,322 1,597 1,979
Minority interest add-back 31 60 53 57 76 46 (73) (380) (222) (30) (90) (121) (164) (221)
Depreciation and amortization add-bac 524 730 971 1,048 1,128 1,313 1,869 2,271 2,667 3,221 3,864 4,524 6,799 7,510
Net income from associates and jointly c - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Net loss/(gain) on asset sales - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
(Increase)/decrease in working capita 194 (313) (19) 12 111 472 (983) 387 14 (19) 1,033 (371) 1,236 (632)
Accounts receivable 25 (132) 83 (3) (64) 28 (769) (87) 133 (295) (390) (102) (151) (21)
Inventory (71) (77) (158) 30 (36) (170) (395) (718) (824) 3 (224) (150) (508) (49)
Accounts payable 240 (104) 57 (14) 211 614 182 1,191 706 274 1,648 (118) 1,894 (562)
Other operating cash flow items (333) 124 (105) (452) (530) (886) 497 1,252 (3) - - - - -
Cash flow from operations 669 977 1,081 799 1,019 1,660 3,012 5,348 3,358 3,899 5,741 5,354 9,469 8,636

Purchase of PP&E (CAPEX) (1,231) (2,757) (2,287) (1,808) (2,029) (5,733) (4,516) (6,351) (7,466) (8,067) (8,712) (9,235) (9,775) (9,728)
Acquisitions (161) (88) (468) (427) (19) (119) (185) (101)
Divestitures 1 6 1 9 163 70
Other investment cash flow items 601 396 92 (971) (52) (1,290) (1,954) (3,940) 1,258 940 940 940 (60) (60)
Cash flow from investing (790) (2,443) (2,662) (3,197) (1,938) (7,071) (6,655) (10,392) (6,208) (7,127) (7,772) (8,295) (9,835) (9,788)

Dividends (common and preferred) paid - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Share repurchase/issue (change In co 518 18 343 169 7 7,514 - (32) (217) - - -
Increase/(decrease) in short-term debt 344 181 (246) 806 (397) 391 (451) 479 (52) 300
Increase/(decrease) in long-term debt (218) 1,429 534 (693) 39 2,062 658 1,781 1,616 1,500
Increase/(decrease) in preferred share - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Change in minority interest 101 792 236 1,417 1,059 2,543 1,781 1,523 918 1,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
Other financing cash flow items (207) 195 405 677 681 195 369 (137) 319 - - - - -
Cash flow from financing 537 2,615 1,272 2,377 1,388 12,704 2,357 3,614 2,466 1,300 2,000 3,500 2,000 2,000

Effect of foreign exchange rate chan (15) (28) 22 (31) (9) 294 (220) (335)
Other adjustment 0 (8) 41 -
Total cash flow 402 1,121 (288) (52) 452 7,588 (1,245) (1,649) (718) (1,928) (32) 559 1,633 848

Cash flow assumptions

Capex 1,231 2,757 2,287 1,808 2,029 5,733 4,516 6,351 7,466 8,067 8,712 9,235 9,775 9,728
YoY % 12% 183% -21% 41% 18% 8% 8% 6%
Calculation of depreciation
Depreciation 473 673 906 995 1,096 1,283 1,840 2,242 2,638 3,192 3,835 4,494 6,770 7,481
Net PPE + Capex 4,226 6,661 7,975 8,332 8,807 13,490 16,654 20,611 26,321 32,012 37,532 42,933 48,214 51,172
Depreciable years 8.9 9.9 8.8 8.4 8.0 10.5 9.1 9.2 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.6 7.1 6.8
Depreciation to net PP&E 12% 12% 14% 15% 14% 11% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 12% 16% 17%

Calculation of amortization
Amortization 51 57 65 54 32 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Net intantigibles 208 224 249 220 123 97 82 68 45 34 64 95 126 156
Depreciable years 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.5 1.1 2.2 3.2 4.3 5.3

Calculation of capex:
Capex as a % of revenue 55.0% 94.6% 73.8% 53.8% 65.1% 146.7% 83.0% 87.3% 118.1% 100.6% 86.2% 77.0% 69.8% 61.6%

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

Asset turnover (RHS) 0.35 0.34 0.28 0.26 0.20 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.24
Leverage (RHS) 1.93 2.19 2.35 2.34 2.52 2.23 2.09 2.20 2.33 2.39 2.45 2.53 2.59 2.57
Net margin 11.3% 12.9% 5.8% 4.0% 7.5% 18.3% 31.3% 25.0% 14.3% 9.1% 9.2% 11.0% 11.4% 12.5%
ROE 7.6% 9.6% 3.8% 2.4% 3.8% 6.7% 10.5% 10.0% 4.6% 3.6% 4.4% 5.9% 6.7% 7.7%

Short-term inv
SMIC (0981.HK)
(US$ m) 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24E 4Q24E 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E 1Q26E 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
Revenue (US$bn) 1,104 1,344 1,415 1,580 1,842 1,903 1,907 1,621 1,462 1,560 1,621 1,678 1,750 1,901 2,167 2,198 2,239 2,406 2,719 2,738 2,737 2,879 3,216 3,169 3,907 5,443 7,273 6,322 8,016 10,102 12,001
Sequential 12% 22% 5% 12% 17% 3% 0% -15% -10% 7% 4% 3.6% 4% 9% 14% 1% 2% 7% 13% 1% 0% 5% 12% -1% 25.4% 39.3% 33.6% -13.1% 26.8% 26.0% 18.8%
YoY 22% 43% 31% 61% 67% 42% 35% 3% -21% -18% -15% 4% 20% 22% 34% 31% 28% 27% 25% 25% 22% 20% 18% 16%
Revenue by serive type
Wafer 91.2% 91.7% 93.9% 89.5% 92.5% 94.1% 92.5% 91.1% 92.1% 90.5% 91.1% 92.9% 93.0% 93% 93% 94% 94% 94% 94% 95% 95% 94% 94% 95%
Mask making, testing, othe 8.8% 8.3% 6.1% 10.5% 7.5% 5.9% 7.5% 8.9% 7.9% 9.5% 8.9% 7.1% 7.0% 7.1% 7.3% 6.0% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.7% 6.0% 5.0% 8% 17% 18% 13% 16% 26% 14%
Wafer revenue 1,007 1,233 1,329 1,414 1,704 1,791 1,764 1,477 1,347 1,412 1,476 1,559 1,628 1,766 2,008 2,067 2,104 2,258 2,545 2,594 2,588 2,715 3,024 3,011 3,475 4,982 6,736 5,794 7,469 9,500 11,339
Mask making, testing, othe 97 112 86 166 138 112 143 144 116 148 144 119 123 135 159 131 135 148 175 144 148 163 192 159 432 461 538 527 547 602 662
Licensing (1Q-2Q18 only) - - - - - - -
Total Capacity (8" equipv.) 1,622 1,685 1,782 1,863 1,947 2,021 2,118 2,142 2,197 2,263 2,387 2,417 2,444 2,511 2,720 3,058 3,139 3,321 3,503 3,584 3,645 3,787 3,949 4,030 5,961 6,951 8,229 9,263 10,733 13,547 15,410
Total shipments (8" equpv. 1,559 1,745 1,720 1,723 1,840 1,887 1,798 1,574 1,252 1,403 1,537 1,675 1,795 2,112 2,175 2,268 2,363 2,513 2,807 2,864 2,934 3,061 3,391 3,387 5,699 6,747 7,098 5,867 8,350 10,548 12,774
Total Utilization (calculated 96% 104% 97% 93% 94% 93% 85% 73% 57% 62% 64% 69% 73% 84% 80% 74% 75% 76% 80% 80% 81% 81% 86% 84% 96% 97% 86% 63% 78% 78% 83%
Blended ASP 646 706 773 821 926 949 981 938 1,076 1,006 961 931 907 836 923 911 890 898 906 905 882 887 892 889 610 738 949 988 894 901 888
Gross Profit 250 405 468 553 750 750 742 519 305 317 322 275 240 265 418 438 332 389 540 533 493 538 696 649 921 1,676 2,762 1,218 1,362 1,793 2,375
GM % 22.7% 30.1% 33.1% 35.0% 40.7% 39.4% 38.9% 32.0% 20.8% 20.3% 19.8% 16.4% 13.7% 13.9% 19.3% 19.9% 14.8% 16.2% 19.8% 19.5% 18.0% 18.7% 21.6% 20.5% 23.6% 30.8% 38.0% 19.3% 17.0% 17.8% 19.8%
Depreciation 280 346 364 392 393 415 413 411 476 527 518 602 631 702 723 754 798 837 866 899 943 977 1,013 1,047 917 1,382 1,633 2,124 2,810 3,400 3,981
Non-depr COGS (Wafer) 496 504 514 506 589 649 638 577 590 600 667 707 783 829 901 903 1,004 1,064 1,177 1,194 1,186 1,237 1,358 1,350 1,732 2,020 2,454 2,564 3,415 4,439 5,131
Non-depr COGS (Others) 78 89 69 129 109 89 113 114 91 117 114 94 96 106 125 103 105 116 136 112 115 127 149 123 337 365 425 416 430 470 513
COGS 854 939 947 1,027 1,092 1,153 1,165 1,103 1,158 1,244 1,299 1,403 1,510 1,636 1,748 1,759 1,907 2,017 2,180 2,205 2,244 2,341 2,520 2,520 2,986 3,767 4,512 5,104 6,654 8,309 9,625
Wafer GP 231 383 451 516 721 727 712 488 280 285 291 250 213 236 384 410 302 356 501 501 459 501 653 613 826 1,580 2,649 1,107 1,244 1,661 2,226
Wafer GM 22.9% 31.0% 33.9% 36.5% 42.3% 40.6% 40.4% 33.1% 20.8% 20.2% 19.7% 16.0% 13.1% 13.4% 19.1% 19.8% 14.4% 15.8% 19.7% 19.3% 17.7% 18.5% 21.6% 20.4% 24% 32% 39% 19% 17% 17% 20%
Others GP 19 22 17 36 29 24 30 30 24 31 30 25 26 29 34 28 30 33 38 32 33 37 43 36 95 96 113 111 118 132 149
others GM 20% 20% 20% 22% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 21.5% 21.5% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 23%

Wafer revenue by nodes 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24E 4Q24E 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
8nm 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12/14nm 3.8% 11.5% 13.5% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 15.0% 15.0% 14.1% 13.0% 12.4% 10.4% 9.1% 8.0% 8.7% 8.1% 7.3% 7.2% 6.9% 6.7% 6.0% 6.0% 3% 11% 13% 14% 10% 8% 6%
28nm 3.1% 3.0% 4.7% 5.6% 6.5% 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.4% 9.8% 9.4% 8.5% 9.3% 8.2% 8.0% 8.9% 8.3% 8.0% 8.0% 8.8% 8.5% 8.1% 6% 4% 7% 8% 9% 8% 8%
40/45nm 16.3% 14.9% 13.9% 15.3% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.2% 20.4% 21.4% 17.9% 30.7% 38.0% 39.1% 40.2% 43.6% 43.0% 45.0% 44.9% 47.5% 46.4% 16% 15% 20% 22% 28% 42% 46%
55/65nm 32.8% 29.9% 28.5% 26.8% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 30.3% 28.8% 24.0% 27.0% 26.6% 25.2% 25.1% 24.6% 25.9% 24.8% 25.0% 24.4% 25.8% 31% 29% 32% 31% 27% 25% 25%
90nm 4.1% 3.2% 3.1% 2.5% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.0% 2.9% 1.9% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%
0.11/0.13um 6.0% 5.9% 5.4% 5.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.7% 4.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 5% 6% 4% 3% 4% 3% 2%
0.15/0.18um 30.3% 28.4% 27.9% 28.6% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.7% 17.9% 19.1% 27.1% 15.8% 12.7% 12.5% 11.6% 10.5% 10.3% 10.0% 9.5% 8.8% 8.9% 32% 29% 20% 17% 18% 11% 9%
0.25um/0.35um 3.6% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 3.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Wafer revenue by nodes
8nm - - - - - - - - -
12/14nm 38 142 179 184 221 233 229 192 202 212 209 203 203 184 182 165 183 183 187 187 179 181 181 181 120 543 876 825 734 739 722
28nm 31 37 62 79 111 118 115 96 101 106 109 154 153 150 186 169 168 201 210 208 206 240 256 245 201 210 440 469 659 786 947
40/45nm 164 184 185 216 341 358 353 295 296 311 327 318 348 316 616 785 822 907 1,110 1,116 1,164 1,218 1,438 1,398 542 749 1,347 1,253 2,065 3,955 5,218
55/65nm 330 369 379 379 545 573 564 473 417 438 458 472 468 423 543 549 530 566 627 673 642 679 739 777 1,060 1,456 2,155 1,785 1,983 2,396 2,838
90nm 41 39 41 35 51 52 52 44 47 49 50 47 47 34 46 42 40 40 44 43 42 42 44 44 99 157 200 194 169 168 171
0.11/0.13um 60 73 72 75 60 63 62 52 44 47 51 58 65 124 80 66 69 69 71 71 68 68 70 70 185 280 236 200 334 280 276
0.15/0.18um 305 350 371 404 341 358 353 295 215 226 246 279 311 479 318 261 262 262 266 266 258 258 266 266 1,129 1,430 1,347 967 1,370 1,057 1,049
0.25um/0.35um 36 39 40 41 34 36 35 30 23 24 26 28 32 55 37 31 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 29 138 157 135 101 155 119 116
Total 1,007 1,233 1,329 1,414 1,704 1,791 1,764 1,477 1,347 1,412 1,476 1,559 1,628 1,766 2,008 2,067 2,104 2,258 2,545 2,594 2,588 2,715 3,024 3,011 3,475 4,982 6,736 5,794 7,469 9,500 11,339
8" fab revenue 402 462 482 520 434 457 450 377 283 297 324 365 408 658 435 358 361 361 367 367 355 355 366 366 1,453 1,867 1,718 1,268 1,859 1,456 1,442
12" fab revenue 605 770 847 894 1,269 1,334 1,314 1,100 1,064 1,116 1,153 1,194 1,220 1,108 1,573 1,709 1,743 1,897 2,178 2,227 2,233 2,360 2,658 2,645 2,022 3,116 5,018 4,526 5,610 8,044 9,897
QoQ/YoY
8nm
12/14nm 192% 271% 27% 2% 20% 5% -2% -16% 5% 5% -1% -3% 0% -9% -1% -9% 11% 0% 2% 0% -4% 1% 0% 0% 1460% 353% 61% -6% -11% 1% -2%
28nm 2% 19% 69% 27% 40% 7% -3% -17% 5% 5% 2% 41% 0% -2% 24% -10% -1% 20% 5% -1% -1% 16% 7% -4% 70% 5% 110% 7% 41% 19% 21%
40/45nm 27% 12% 1% 17% 57% 5% -2% -16% 0% 5% 5% -3% 9% -9% 95% 27% 5% 10% 22% 1% 4% 5% 18% -3% 8% 38% 80% -7% 65% 92% 32%
55/65nm 11% 12% 3% 0% 44% 5% -2% -16% -12% 5% 5% 3% -1% -10% 28% 1% -3% 7% 11% 7% -5% 6% 9% 5% 34% 37% 48% -17% 11% 21% 18%
90nm 35% -4% 4% -14% 45% 2% 1% -16% 6% 5% 2% -6% 0% -29% 37% -10% -3% 0% 9% -1% -4% 0% 7% -2% 107% 59% 27% -3% -13% 0% 2%
0.11/0.13um 12% 20% -1% 4% -20% 5% -2% -16% -14% 5% 9% 13% 13% 90% -36% -18% 5% 0% 3% 0% -4% 0% 3% 0% -4% 51% -16% -15% 68% -16% -2%
0.15/0.18um 7% 15% 6% 9% -16% 5% -2% -16% -27% 5% 9% 13% 11% 54% -34% -18% 0% 0% 2% 0% -3% 0% 3% 0% 1% 27% -6% -28% 42% -23% -1%
0.25um/0.35um 4% 9% 1% 3% -17% 5% -2% -16% -22% 5% 10% 7% 13% 76% -33% -18% -3% 0% 0% 0% -3% 0% 2% 0% 15% 13% -14% -25% 53% -23% -2%
Total 15% 22% 8% 6% 20% 5% -2% -16% -9% 5% 5% 6% 4% 9% 14% 3% 2% 7% 13% 2% 0% 5% 11% 0% 20% 43% 35% -14% 29% 27% 19%
8" fab revenue 8% 15% 4% 8% -17% 5% -2% -16% -25% 5% 9% 13% 12% 61% -34% -18% 1% 0% 2% 0% -3% 0% 3% 0% 2% 28% -8% -26% 47% -22% -1%
12" fab revenue 21% 27% 10% 6% 42% 5% -2% -16% -3% 5% 3% 4% 2% -9% 42% 9% 2% 9% 15% 2% 0% 6% 13% -1% 38% 54% 61% -10% 24% 43% 23%
Capciaty by fabs (k 8"/12" WPM) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
SH 8" 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115
SH 12" 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BJ 12" 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52
TJ 8" 93 93 93 93 93 93 99 100 105 109 123 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 93 93 100 126 126 126 126
SZ 8" 66 80 85 92 100 107 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 46 92 113 113 113 113 113
SZ 12" 0 0 0 0 0 8 17 20 26 34 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 - - 20 40 40 40 40
BJ 12" JV 50 53 65 74 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 50 74 83 83 83 83 83
Lfoundry 8" 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - -
SH 12" JV (new) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
BJ 12" JV (Jingcheng) 6 9 12 18 34 49 55 64 73 76 79 85 91 94 9 49 76 94
SH 12" JV (Oriental) 0 0 1 5 20 35 38 47 56 59 62 68 77 80 - 35 59 80
TJ 12" JV (Xiqing) 20 23 32 41 47 50 59 68 74 20 47 74
Total capacity (k 8" equi 541 562 594 621 649 674 706 714 732 754 796 806 815 837 907 1019 1046 1107 1168 1195 1215 1262 1316 1343 521 621 714 806 1,019 1,195 1,343
8" capacity 274 288 294 301 308 315 327 328 333 337 352 355 355 355 355 355 355 355 355 355 355 355 355 355 254 301 328 355 355 355 355
12" capacity 118 121 133 142 151 159 168 171 177 185 197 200 204 214 245 295 307 334 361 373 382 403 427 439 118 142 171 200 295 373 439
Capacity by nodes 92 214 176 149
8nm 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12/14nm (12") 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
28nm (12") 5 5 9 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 18 18 23 23 23 23 27 27 27 27 32 32 32 7 12 13 18 23 27 32
40/45nm (12") 26 27 30 35 40 43 47 48 52 55 66 63 67 67 96 135 147 162 187 188 197 206 228 230 23 35 48 63 135 188 230
55/65nm (12") 63 65 70 72 74 79 83 85 87 91 93 94 94 99 101 113 113 120 122 133 133 140 142 153 65 72 85 94 113 133 153
90nm (12") 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 9 10 10 10 10 10
0.11/0.13um (8") 34 38 38 38 42 46 48 48 48 49 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 30 38 48 51 51 51 51
0.15/0.18um (8") 206 215 220 227 230 232 241 242 247 248 260 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 192 227 242 263 263 263 263
0.25/0/35um (8") 35 35 35 35 37 37 39 39 39 40 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 33 35 39 41 41 41 41
Total (8" equiv.) 541 562 594 621 649 674 706 714 732 754 796 806 815 837 907 1,019 1,046 1,107 1,168 1,195 1,215 1,262 1,316 1,343 521 621 714 806 815 1,046 1,343
Capciaty by fabs (k 8" equiv. WPQ) 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24E 4Q24E 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E 1Q26E 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
SH 8" 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380
SH 12" 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 42 38 38 38 38 38 38
BJ 12" 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,404
TJ 8" 280 280 280 280 280 280 296 300 314 326 370 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 977 1,120 1,156 1,389 1,515 1,515 1,515
SZ 8" 198 240 256 277 300 320 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 579 971 1,301 1,361 1,361 1,361 1,361
SZ 12" (new) 0 0 0 0 0 54 115 135 176 230 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 - - 304 945 1,080 1,080 1,080
BJ 12" JV 338 358 439 500 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 560 1,350 1,634 2,241 2,241 2,241 2,241 2,241
Lfoundry 8" - - - - - - -
SH 12" JV (new) 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 230 405 405 405 405 405 405
BJ 12" JV (Jingcheng) 41 61 81 122 230 331 371 432 493 513 533 574 614 635 - 101 763 1,809 2,356
SH 12" JV (Oriental) 7 34 135 236 257 317 378 398 419 459 520 540 - 412 1,350 1,937
TJ 12" JV (Xiqing) 135 155 216 277 317 338 398 459 500 135 965 1,694
Total 1,622 1,685 1,782 1,863 1,947 2,021 2,118 2,142 2,197 2,263 2,387 2,417 2,444 2,511 2,720 3,058 3,139 3,321 3,503 3,584 3,645 3,787 3,949 4,030 5,961 6,951 8,229 9,263 10,733 13,547 15,410
8" capacity 823 865 881 902 925 945 981 985 999 1011 1055 1064 1064 1064 1064 1064 1064 1064 1064 1064 1064 1064 1064 1064 2,936 3,471 3,837 4,129 4,255 4,255 4,255
12" capacity 799 819 900 961 1,022 1,076 1,137 1,157 1,197 1,251 1,332 1,353 1,380 1,447 1,656 1,994 2,075 2,257 2,439 2,520 2,581 2,723 2,885 2,966 3,025 3,480 4,392 5,134 6,477 9,292 11,155
Capacity by nodes
8nm - - - -
12/14nm (12") 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 230 405 405 405 405 405 405
28nm (12") 33 36 63 78 88 88 88 88 88 93 93 123 123 153 153 153 153 183 183 183 183 213 213 213 255 210 352 397 582 702 822
40/45nm (12") 176 183 201 237 273 292 317 323 353 372 443 423 450 452 651 909 990 1,092 1,259 1,270 1,331 1,393 1,540 1,551 704 797 1,205 1,592 2,462 4,611 5,814
55/65nm (12") 425 440 475 485 500 530 560 575 585 615 625 635 635 671 681 761 761 811 826 896 896 946 961 1,031 1,650 1,825 2,165 2,460 2,748 3,294 3,834
90nm (12") 64 59 60 60 60 65 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 187 243 265 280 280 280 280
0.11/0.13um (8") 101 115 115 115 125 138 143 143 143 148 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 316 446 548 594 608 608 608
0.15/0.18um (8") 617 644 660 681 689 696 722 726 740 745 779 788 788 788 788 788 788 788 788 788 788 788 788 788 2,231 2,602 2,833 3,051 3,151 3,151 3,151
0.25/0/35um (8") 105 106 106 106 111 111 117 117 117 119 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 389 423 456 484 496 496 496
Total 1,622 1,685 1,782 1,863 1,947 2,021 2,118 2,142 2,197 2,263 2,387 2,417 2,444 2,511 2,720 3,058 3,139 3,321 3,503 3,584 3,645 3,787 3,949 4,030 5,961 6,951 8,229 9,263 10,733 13,547 15,410
Utilization
8nm
12/14nm 29% 95% 105% 101% 106% 109% 103% 90% 86% 97% 97% 97% 98% 89% 88% 83% 95% 95% 97% 97% 96% 97% 97% 97% 45% 82% 102% 94% 90% 96% 97%
28nm 101% 105% 92% 89% 90% 92% 86% 75% 72% 77% 80% 88% 89% 70% 87% 82% 84% 84% 88% 87% 89% 89% 95% 91% 89% 95% 86% 80% 82% 86% 91%
40/45nm 105% 105% 86% 81% 111% 109% 95% 81% 69% 73% 66% 68% 71% 64% 87% 82% 82% 82% 87% 86% 89% 89% 95% 91% 97% 93% 98% 68% 78% 84% 91%
55/65nm 105% 103% 85% 78% 110% 109% 101% 86% 69% 74% 77% 80% 81% 69% 87% 82% 82% 82% 89% 88% 87% 87% 93% 91% 96% 92% 101% 75% 80% 85% 90%
90nm 103% 99% 89% 72% 104% 97% 91% 80% 78% 88% 92% 88% 89% 64% 87% 82% 82% 82% 89% 88% 87% 87% 93% 91% 93% 91% 93% 87% 80% 85% 90%
0.11/0.13um 100% 105% 101% 99% 66% 59% 54% 47% 37% 40% 43% 50% 57% 109% 70% 60% 65% 65% 67% 67% 66% 66% 68% 68% 101% 101% 56% 43% 74% 66% 67%
0.15/0.18um 98% 107% 107% 106% 85% 84% 75% 66% 42% 46% 53% 61% 69% 106% 70% 60% 62% 62% 63% 63% 63% 63% 65% 65% 101% 105% 77% 51% 76% 63% 64%
0.25um/0.35um 100% 106% 104% 101% 73% 73% 66% 57% 41% 44% 48% 52% 59% 104% 70% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 61% 61% 105% 103% 67% 46% 73% 60% 61%
8" fab utilization 98% 106% 106% 104% 81% 79% 71% 62% 41% 45% 50% 58% 66% 106% 70% 60% 62% 62% 63% 63% 63% 63% 65% 65% 101% 104% 73% 49% 75% 63% 64%
12" fab utilization 94% 101% 88% 81% 107% 106% 97% 83% 70% 76% 75% 78% 79% 68% 86% 82% 82% 82% 88% 87% 88% 88% 94% 91% 90% 90% 98% 75% 79% 85% 90%
Yield rate
8nm
12/14nm 80% 90% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 68% 94% 98% 99% 99% 99% 99%
28nm 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99%
40/45nm 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 100% 99% 99% 99% 100% 99% 99% 99% 100% 99% 99% 99% 100% 99% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99%
55/65nm 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
90nm 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
0.11/0.13um 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
0.15/0.18um 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
0.25um/0.35um 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 99% 99% 99%
Shipments (k 8" equiv.)
8nm 0 0 0 0 0 - - - -
12/14nm 23 86 104 101 105 108 102 89 86 97 98 97 98 89 88 83 95 95 97 97 96 97 97 97 71 314 405 378 359 385 388
28nm 33 37 57 69 79 80 75 65 63 71 74 107 108 106 132 124 127 152 159 158 161 188 200 192 224 196 299 314 471 596 741
40/45nm 185 192 172 191 300 315 299 261 240 267 288 285 317 287 561 744 803 886 1,085 1,090 1,173 1,227 1,448 1,408 678 740 1,175 1,080 1,909 3,865 5,256
55/65nm 444 450 402 380 546 574 566 493 400 451 481 506 510 461 591 623 620 662 733 787 774 819 891 936 1,578 1,676 2,180 1,838 2,184 2,801 3,420
90nm 66 58 53 43 62 63 64 56 55 62 64 62 62 44 61 57 57 57 62 61 61 61 65 64 174 220 245 242 225 238 250
0.11/0.13um 101 120 115 114 82 82 77 67 53 59 65 76 87 165 106 91 99 99 102 102 100 100 103 103 317 451 308 252 449 400 407
0.15/0.18um 602 688 705 720 585 583 538 477 309 344 408 479 539 830 550 472 487 487 495 495 495 495 511 511 2,251 2,716 2,183 1,539 2,392 1,966 2,013
0.25um/0.35um 104 112 110 107 81 81 77 66 47 53 59 64 73 129 86 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 75 75 405 433 305 223 362 296 299
Total 1,559 1,745 1,720 1,723 1,840 1,887 1,798 1,574 1,252 1,403 1,537 1,675 1,795 2,112 2,175 2,268 2,363 2,513 2,807 2,864 2,934 3,061 3,391 3,387 5,699 6,747 7,098 5,867 8,350 10,548 12,774
ASP (US$, 8" equiv.) 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24E 4Q24E 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
8nm
12/14nm 1,641 1,641 1,723 1,827 2,101 2,153 2,239 2,150 2,343 2,179 2,136 2,093 2,061 2,061 2,061 1,979 1,920 1,920 1,920 1,920 1,862 1,862 1,862 1,862 1,689 1,728 2,160 2,183 2,042 1,920 1,862
28nm 943 990 1,089 1,154 1,408 1,478 1,537 1,476 1,609 1,496 1,466 1,437 1,415 1,415 1,415 1,359 1,318 1,318 1,318 1,318 1,278 1,278 1,278 1,278 897 1,068 1,474 1,491 1,400 1,318 1,278
40/45nm 886 957 1,071 1,136 1,136 1,136 1,181 1,134 1,236 1,162 1,139 1,116 1,099 1,099 1,099 1,055 1,023 1,023 1,023 1,023 993 993 993 993 800 1,012 1,147 1,160 1,082 1,023 993
55/65nm 744 818 941 998 998 998 998 958 1,044 971 951 932 918 918 918 882 855 855 855 855 830 830 830 830 672 869 989 971 908 855 830
90nm 626 676 777 824 824 824 824 791 862 801 785 770 758 758 758 728 706 706 706 706 685 685 685 685 569 714 816 803 750 706 685
0.11/0.13um 598 604 622 659 725 769 799 775 845 794 778 763 751 751 751 721 700 700 700 700 679 679 679 679 584 621 766 791 745 700 679
0.15/0.18um 506 509 526 562 583 614 656 620 698 657 604 584 577 577 577 554 538 538 538 538 521 521 521 521 502 527 617 628 573 538 521
0.25um/0.35um 348 352 362 384 422 443 459 445 485 456 447 438 432 432 432 414 402 402 402 402 390 390 390 390 342 361 442 455 428 402 390
Blended ASP 646 706 773 821 926 949 981 938 1,076 1,006 961 931 907 836 923 911 890 898 906 905 882 887 892 889 610 738 949 988 894 901 888
ASP QoQ
8nm
12/14nm -1.5% 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% 15.0% 2.5% 4.0% -4.0% 9.0% -7.0% -2.0% -2.0% -1.5% 0.0% 0.0% -4.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 25.0% 1.1% -6.5% -6.0% -3.0%
28nm 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 6.0% 22.0% 5.0% 4.0% -4.0% 9.0% -7.0% -2.0% -2.0% -1.5% 0.0% 0.0% -4.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 19.1% 38.0% 1.2% -6.1% -5.9% -3.0%
40/45nm 6.0% 8.0% 12.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% -4.0% 9.0% -6.0% -2.0% -2.0% -1.5% 0.0% 0.0% -4.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 26.5% 13.4% 1.1% -6.7% -5.4% -3.0%
55/65nm 6.0% 10.0% 15.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -4.0% 9.0% -7.0% -2.0% -2.0% -1.5% 0.0% 0.0% -4.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 29.3% 13.8% -1.8% -6.5% -5.8% -3.0%
90nm 6.0% 8.0% 15.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -4.0% 9.0% -7.0% -2.0% -2.0% -1.5% 0.0% 0.0% -4.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 25.5% 14.3% -1.6% -6.5% -5.9% -3.0%
0.11/0.13um 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% -3.0% 9.0% -6.0% -2.0% -2.0% -1.5% 0.0% 0.0% -4.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 6.3% 23.4% 3.3% -5.8% -6.1% -3.0%
0.15/0.18um -1.0% 0.5% 3.4% 6.8% 3.8% 5.4% 6.8% -5.5% 12.7% -5.9% -8.1% -3.3% -1.1% 0.0% 0.0% -4.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.7% 5.0% 17.2% 1.8% -8.9% -6.1% -3.0%
0.25um/0.35um 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.5% -3.0% 9.0% -6.0% -2.0% -2.0% -1.5% 0.0% 0.0% -4.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% 5.8% 22.3% 2.8% -5.9% -6.1% -3.0%
Blended ASP 4.7% 9.4% 9.4% 6.2% 12.8% 2.5% 3.4% -4.4% 14.7% -6.5% -4.6% -3.1% -2.6% -7.8% 10.4% -1.3% -2.3% 0.9% 0.9% -0.1% -2.6% 0.6% 0.5% -0.3% 6% 21% 29% 4% -9% 1% -1%
ASP (US$, 12equiv.)
12/14nm 3,693 3,693 3,877 4,110 4,726 4,844 5,038 4,837 5,272 4,903 4,805 4,709 4,638 4,638 4,638 4,453 4,319 4,319 4,319 4,319 4,189 4,189 4,189 4,189 3,801 3,887 4,861 4,912 4,595 4,319 4,189
28nm 2,121 2,227 2,449 2,596 3,167 3,326 3,459 3,321 3,619 3,366 3,299 3,233 3,184 3,184 3,184 3,057 2,965 2,965 2,965 2,965 2,876 2,876 2,876 2,876 2,018 2,403 3,316 3,355 3,151 2,965 2,876
40/45nm 1,993 2,153 2,411 2,555 2,555 2,555 2,658 2,551 2,781 2,614 2,562 2,511 2,473 2,473 2,473 2,374 2,303 2,303 2,303 2,303 2,234 2,234 2,234 2,234 1,800 2,277 2,581 2,610 2,434 2,303 2,234
55/65nm 1,674 1,841 2,118 2,245 2,245 2,245 2,245 2,155 2,349 2,185 2,141 2,098 2,067 2,067 2,067 1,984 1,924 1,924 1,924 1,924 1,867 1,867 1,867 1,867 1,512 1,955 2,224 2,185 2,043 1,924 1,867
90nm 1,407 1,520 1,748 1,853 1,853 1,853 1,853 1,779 1,939 1,803 1,767 1,732 1,706 1,706 1,706 1,638 1,588 1,588 1,588 1,588 1,541 1,541 1,541 1,541 1,280 1,606 1,836 1,806 1,688 1,588 1,541
SMIC (0981.HK)
(US$ m) 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24E 4Q24E 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E 1Q26E 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
Wafer GM by nodes 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
8nm
12/14nm -84.8% -5.0% 5.0% 12.0% 18.0% 15.0% 16.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% -4.0% -4.0% -9.0% -9.0% -14.5% -17.9% -22.8% -22.8% -22.4% -22.4% -23.3% -23.1% -23.1% -23.1% -23.2% -1.6% 14.7% -2.0% -12.4% -22.6% -23.1%
28nm 8.8% 22.0% 28.0% 32.0% 42.0% 42.0% 43.0% 37.0% 33.0% 32.0% 32.0% 29.0% 27.0% 27.0% 34.4% 35.3% 31.4% 32.3% 34.4% 34.1% 33.3% 33.7% 35.6% 34.6% 12.0% 25.6% 41.2% 31.2% 31.2% 33.2% 34.4%
40/45nm 29.0% 37.0% 39.0% 41.0% 47.0% 44.0% 43.0% 36.0% 26.0% 25.0% 24.0% 18.5% 16.5% 16.5% 31.1% 32.6% 27.9% 29.1% 32.2% 31.9% 31.1% 31.6% 34.0% 32.9% 29.6% 36.9% 42.7% 23.3% 27.0% 30.5% 32.5%
55/65nm 29.0% 35.0% 38.0% 39.0% 49.0% 47.0% 46.0% 38.5% 27.0% 26.0% 26.0% 19.5% 17.5% 17.5% 31.7% 33.4% 28.9% 30.4% 34.9% 34.4% 31.9% 32.6% 35.7% 34.8% 26.3% 35.5% 45.4% 24.5% 25.7% 32.4% 33.9%
90nm 27.0% 30.0% 35.5% 30.0% 45.2% 42.0% 41.0% 33.5% 29.0% 28.0% 28.0% 18.0% 16.0% 16.0% 40.0% 42.2% 38.9% 40.6% 46.0% 45.3% 42.6% 43.3% 46.9% 45.8% 23.6% 30.7% 40.7% 25.8% 29.0% 42.8% 44.7%
0.11/0.13um 27.0% 38.5% 40.0% 43.0% 43.0% 41.0% 41.0% 34.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.5% 14.3% 12.3% 12.3% -5.4% -16.0% -22.0% -24.5% -24.8% -26.7% -31.9% -34.1% -34.5% -36.6% 26.4% 37.6% 40.0% 16.3% 2.5% -24.5% -34.3%
0.15/0.18um 26.3% 37.3% 40.4% 42.8% 42.8% 43.1% 43.9% 36.1% 15.1% 15.6% 16.5% 15.3% 10.4% 12.5% -8.0% -21.5% -29.9% -33.3% -34.6% -37.4% -43.3% -46.3% -46.8% -49.7% 25.0% 37.3% 41.7% 15.6% 0.8% -33.8% -46.6%
0.25um/0.35um 26.0% 36.0% 38.0% 40.0% 38.0% 38.0% 37.0% 28.0% 14.0% 12.0% 16.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% -15.3% -33.0% -44.9% -49.6% -52.9% -56.8% -65.2% -69.4% -71.8% -75.9% 25.3% 35.2% 35.5% 13.5% -4.6% -51.0% -70.6%
Total GM 22.9% 31.0% 33.9% 36.5% 42.3% 40.6% 40.4% 33.1% 20.8% 20.2% 19.7% 16.0% 13.1% 13.4% 19.1% 19.8% 14.4% 15.8% 19.7% 19.3% 17.7% 18.5% 21.6% 20.4% 23.8% 31.7% 39.3% 19.1% 16.7% 17.5% 19.6%
8" GM 26.4% 37.4% 40.1% 42.6% 42.5% 42.4% 42.9% 35.2% 15.4% 15.6% 16.5% 14.9% 10.7% 12.3% -8.1% -21.4% -29.6% -33.0% -34.2% -36.9% -42.9% -45.9% -46.5% -49.3% 25.2% 37.2% 41.0% 15.6% 0.7% -33.4% -46.2%
12" GM 20.6% 27.2% 30.4% 33.0% 42.3% 40.0% 39.5% 32.3% 22.3% 21.4% 20.7% 16.4% 13.9% 14.0% 26.7% 28.5% 23.5% 25.1% 28.8% 28.6% 27.4% 28.1% 30.9% 30.0% 22.7% 28.4% 38.8% 20.1% 22.0% 26.7% 29.2%
Wafer GP by nodes
8nm 0 0 0 0 - - - -
12/14nm -32 -7 9 22 40 35 37 17 0 0 -8 -8 -18 -17 -26 -29 -42 -42 -42 -42 -42 -42 -42 -42 (28) (8) 129 (16) (91) (167) (167)
28nm 3 8 17 25 47 50 49 36 33 34 35 45 41 41 64 60 53 65 72 71 69 81 91 85 24 54 181 146 206 261 326
40/45nm 48 68 72 89 160 158 152 106 77 78 79 59 57 52 192 256 229 264 357 356 362 385 489 460 161 276 576 292 557 1,206 1,696
55/65nm 96 129 144 148 267 269 260 182 113 114 119 92 82 74 172 183 153 172 219 232 205 222 264 270 279 516 978 437 511 776 961
90nm 11 12 15 11 23 22 22 15 14 14 14 9 8 5 18 18 16 16 20 20 18 18 21 20 23 48 81 50 49 72 77
0.11/0.13um 16 28 29 32 26 26 25 18 8 8 8 8 8 15 -4 -10 -15 -17 -18 -19 -22 -23 -24 -26 49 105 94 33 8 (69) (95)
0.15/0.18um 80 131 150 173 146 154 155 107 32 35 41 43 32 60 -25 -56 -78 -87 -92 -99 -112 -120 -125 -132 283 534 562 151 11 (357) (489)
0.25um/0.35um 9 14 15 16 13 14 13 8 3 3 4 3 3 6 -6 -10 -13 -15 -16 -17 -19 -20 -21 -22 35 55 48 14 (7) (61) (82)
Total 231 383 451 516 721 727 712 488 280 285 291 250 213 236 384 410 302 356 501 501 459 501 653 613 826 1,580 2,649 1,107 1,244 1,661 2,226
GP mix by nodes
8nm 0% 0% 0% 0% - 0% 0% 0% 0%
12/14nm -14% -2% 2% 4% 6% 5% 5% 4% 0% 0% -3% -3% -9% -7% -7% -7% -14% -12% -8% -8% -9% -8% -6% -7% -3% -1% 5% -1% -7% -10% -7%
28nm 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 12% 12% 12% 18% 19% 17% 17% 15% 17% 18% 14% 14% 15% 16% 14% 14% 3% 3% 7% 13% 17% 16% 15%
40/45nm 21% 18% 16% 17% 22% 22% 21% 22% 27% 27% 27% 24% 27% 22% 50% 62% 76% 74% 71% 71% 79% 77% 75% 75% 19% 17% 22% 26% 45% 73% 76%
55/65nm 42% 34% 32% 29% 37% 37% 36% 37% 40% 40% 41% 37% 38% 31% 45% 45% 51% 48% 44% 46% 45% 44% 40% 44% 34% 33% 37% 40% 41% 47% 43%
90nm 5% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5% 5% 5% 3% 4% 2% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5% 4% 4% 3%
0.11/0.13um 7% 7% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 6% -1% -3% -5% -5% -4% -4% -5% -5% -4% -4% 6% 7% 4% 3% 1% -4% -4%
0.15/0.18um 35% 34% 33% 34% 20% 21% 22% 22% 12% 12% 14% 17% 15% 25% -7% -14% -26% -24% -18% -20% -24% -24% -19% -22% 34% 34% 21% 14% 1% -22% -22%
0.25um/0.35um 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% -1% -2% -4% -4% -3% -3% -4% -4% -3% -4% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% -4% -4%
Total
Depreciation
8nm - - - - -
12/14nm 33 39 39 38 37 37 34 32 36 39 36 40 39 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 40 150 141 151 164 167 167
28nm 8 11 18 22 24 24 23 22 25 28 25 39 40 53 47 40 41 47 45 45 47 53 52 52 54 59 92 117 180 179 204
40/45nm 44 55 57 68 74 79 81 81 99 111 121 133 146 155 200 239 265 282 311 315 339 348 376 381 150 224 316 465 740 1,173 1,444
55/65nm 105 132 135 140 135 144 144 145 164 183 171 200 206 230 209 200 204 210 204 222 228 236 235 253 348 512 567 718 845 840 952
90nm 16 18 17 17 16 18 18 18 20 21 19 22 23 24 21 18 19 18 17 17 18 17 17 17 40 68 69 82 87 72 70
0.11/0.13um 9 12 13 14 14 17 17 16 19 21 21 24 25 28 29 31 32 34 35 37 39 40 42 43 31 48 64 85 113 139 163
0.15/0.18um 56 69 73 80 80 84 84 84 98 108 107 125 131 147 151 158 168 177 183 190 200 208 216 223 216 277 331 437 588 718 847
0.25um/0.35um 9 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 17 17 20 21 23 24 25 26 28 29 30 32 33 34 35 38 45 53 69 93 113 133
Total 280 346 364 392 393 415 413 411 476 527 518 602 631 702 723 754 798 837 866 899 943 977 1013 1047 917 1,382 1,633 2,124 2,810 3,400 3,981
Non-depreciation COGS
8nm - - - - - - - - -
12/14nm 38 110 131 123 144 161 158 143 166 173 181 171 181 159 167 152 183 183 187 187 179 181 181 181 108 402 606 691 660 739 723
28nm 20 18 27 31 40 45 43 38 43 44 48 70 72 57 75 69 74 88 93 92 91 106 113 108 122 97 166 206 274 347 418
40/45nm 73 61 55 59 107 121 120 108 120 122 127 126 145 109 225 289 328 361 442 445 464 485 573 557 232 249 456 496 768 1,576 2,079
55/65nm 129 108 100 91 143 160 161 146 140 141 168 180 181 119 162 166 173 184 204 219 209 221 241 253 432 428 610 629 627 780 924
90nm 14 10 9 7 12 12 13 12 14 15 17 17 17 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 35 41 49 62 33 25 25
0.11/0.13um 35 32 30 29 20 20 20 18 18 17 22 25 32 80 55 46 52 52 53 53 51 51 53 53 106 127 78 82 213 210 207
0.15/0.18um 169 151 148 151 115 120 114 105 85 83 99 112 148 273 192 159 172 172 175 175 170 170 175 175 631 619 455 379 771 695 691
0.25um/0.35um 17 14 13 12 8 9 9 8 4 4 5 5 8 27 19 16 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 66 56 34 18 70 67 65
Total 496 504 514 506 589 649 638 577 590 600 667 707 783 829 901 903 1,004 1,064 1,177 1,194 1,186 1,237 1,358 1,350 1,732 2,020 2,454 2,564 3,415 4,439 5,131
Non-depreciation COGS/wafer (US$)
8nm 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
12/14nm 1,620 1,269 1,259 1,226 1,369 1,489 1,545 1,596 1,923 1,780 1,850 1,768 1,847 1,782 1,889 1,832 1,920 1,920 1,920 1,920 1,863 1,863 1,863 1,863 1,519 1,278 1,496 1,827 1,838 1,920 1,863
28nm 612 484 471 457 514 558 575 590 684 627 653 658 665 539 572 554 581 581 581 581 564 564 564 564 548 493 558 655 581 581 564
40/45nm 394 317 322 312 356 385 401 414 500 458 443 443 457 378 401 389 408 408 408 408 396 396 396 396 342 336 388 459 402 408 396
55/65nm 291 240 248 241 261 278 285 296 351 313 348 356 355 258 274 266 279 279 279 279 270 270 270 270 274 255 280 342 287 279 270
90nm 216 171 179 174 190 198 204 212 252 240 266 273 273 96 102 99 104 104 104 104 100 100 100 100 202 187 201 258 148 104 100
0.11/0.13um 346 270 263 257 238 250 258 265 335 295 331 335 367 488 517 501 525 525 525 525 510 510 510 510 334 282 252 325 474 525 510
0.15/0.18um 281 219 210 210 197 206 213 220 276 241 243 233 274 328 348 338 354 354 354 354 343 343 343 343 280 228 208 246 322 354 343
0.25um/0.35um 167 124 118 114 103 110 113 117 90 74 87 78 106 209 221 215 225 225 225 225 218 218 218 218 162 130 110 82 192 225 218
Blended cost/wafer 318 289 299 293 320 344 355 367 471 428 434 422 437 392 414 398 425 423 419 417 404 404 401 399 304 299 346 437 409 421 402
Non-depreciation COGS/wafer QoQ
8nm
12/14nm -9% -22% -1% -3% 12% 9% 4% 3% 20% -7% 4% -4% 4% -3% 6.0% -3.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -15% -16% 17% 22% 1% 4% -3%
28nm -12% -21% -3% -3% 12% 9% 3% 3% 16% -8% 4% 1% 1% -19% 6.0% -3.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% -10% 13% 17% -11% 0% -3%
40/45nm -6% -19% 1% -3% 14% 8% 4% 3% 21% -8% -3% 0% 3% -17% 6.0% -3.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -6% -2% 15% 18% -12% 1% -3%
55/65nm -6% -18% 3% -3% 8% 6% 3% 4% 19% -11% 11% 2% 0% -27% 6.0% -3.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -7% -7% 10% 22% -16% -3% -3%
90nm -5% -21% 5% -3% 9% 4% 3% 4% 19% -5% 11% 3% 0% -65% 6.0% -3.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -8% -8% 7% 29% -43% -30% -3%
0.11/0.13um -10% -22% -3% -2% -7% 5% 3% 3% 26% -12% 12% 1% 10% 33% 6.0% -3.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -5% -16% -11% 29% 46% 11% -3%
0.15/0.18um -13% -22% -4% 0% -6% 5% 3% 4% 25% -13% 1% -4% 17% 20% 6.0% -3.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -8% -19% -9% 18% 31% 10% -3%
0.25um/0.35um -10% -25% -5% -4% -9% 7% 3% 4% -23% -17% 17% -10% 36% 97% 6.0% -3.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -5% -20% -15% -26% 135% 17% -3%
Total -6% -9% 4% -2% 9% 7% 3% 3% 29% -9% 1% -3% 3% -10% 6% -4% 7% 0% -1% -1% -3% 0% -1% 0% -2% -2% 15% 26% -6% 3% -5%

Opex analysis 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

Operating profit 125 538 310 420 536 539 478 282 83 80 87 107 2 87 182 181 95 112 289 260 226 227 415 344 312 1,393 1,836 358 452 756 1,211
OPM 11.3% 40.0% 21.9% 26.6% 29.1% 28.3% 25.1% 17.4% 5.7% 5.1% 5.4% 6.4% 0.1% 4.6% 8.4% 8.2% 4.2% 4.7% 10.6% 9.5% 8.2% 7.9% 12.9% 10.8% 8.0% 25.6% 25.2% 5.7% 5.6% 7.5% 10.1%
Operating expense 125 (133) 158 133 214 211 264 236 221 237 234 168 237 178 237 257 237 277 250 272 267 311 281 305 609 283 926 860 910 1,037 1,164
R&D 156 143 167 172 165 187 183 197 168 178 173 189 188 181 181 189 199 192 192 200 216 208 209 218 677 639 733 707 739 784 850
Selling 5 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 29 28 34 36 38 39 41
G&A 49 51 72 104 95 119 153 127 100 106 128 148 116 161 135 148 123 169 142 156 135 186 156 172 266 276 494 482 559 590 649
Other opex (income) (85) (333) (89) (152) (55) (105) (79) (96) (54) (57) (76) (179) (76) (173) (89) (89) (94) (94) (94) (94) (94) (94) (94) (94) (364) (659) (335) (366) (427) (376) (376)
Opex YoY -33% -172% 99% -17% 71% -259% 67% 78% 3% 12% -11% -29% 7% -25% 1% 54% 0% 56% 6% 6% 12% 12% 12% 12% 3% -53% 227% -7% 6% 14% 12%
R&D -6% -9% 6% -11% 6% 31% 9% 15% 1% -5% -5% -4% 12% 2% 5% 0% 6% 6% 6% 6% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% -6% 15% -4% 5% 6% 8%
Selling -6% 29% 15% -32% 66% 45% -1% -4% -12% -2% 29% 19% 12% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4% 10% -6% 22% 7% 6% 2% 4%
G&A -34% -14% 26% 37% 94% 133% 113% 22% 6% -11% -16% 16% 17% 51% 5% 0% 6% 6% 6% 6% 10% 10% 10% 10% 4% 4% 79% -2% 16% 5% 10%
Other opex (income) 41% 766% -38% 24% -36% -68% -11% -37% -1% -46% -3% 85% 41% 206% 17% -50% 23% -46% 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 81% -49% 9% 17% -12% 0%
Operating expense as % t 11.4% -9.9% 11.2% 8.4% 11.6% 11.1% 13.9% 14.6% 15.1% 15.2% 14.5% 10.0% 13.6% 9.4% 10.9% 11.7% 10.6% 11.5% 9.2% 9.9% 9.8% 10.8% 8.7% 9.6% 15.6% 5.2% 12.7% 13.6% 11.3% 10.3% 9.7%
R&D 14.2% 10.6% 11.8% 10.9% 9.0% 9.9% 9.6% 12.2% 11.5% 11.4% 10.7% 11.3% 10.7% 9.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.9% 8.0% 7.1% 7.3% 7.9% 7.2% 6.5% 6.9% 17.3% 11.7% 10.1% 11.2% 9.2% 7.8% 7.1%
Selling 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%
G&A 4.4% 3.8% 5.1% 6.6% 5.1% 6.3% 8.0% 7.9% 6.8% 6.8% 7.9% 8.8% 6.6% 8.4% 6.2% 6.7% 5.5% 7.0% 5.2% 5.7% 4.9% 6.5% 4.9% 5.4% 6.8% 5.1% 6.8% 7.6% 7.0% 5.8% 5.4%
Other opx (income) -7.7% -24.8% -6.3% -9.6% -3.0% -5.5% -4.1% -5.9% -3.7% -3.6% -4.7% -10.6% -4.4% -9.1% -4.1% -4.0% -4.2% -3.9% -3.5% -3.4% -3.4% -3.3% -2.9% -3.0% -9.3% -12.1% -4.6% -5.8% -5.3% -3.7% -3.1%
Non-IFRS opex 205 192 237 279 255 299 330 325 267 321 318 252 321 262 326 346 331 371 344 366 361 405 375 399 912 913 1,208 1,158 1,256 1,413 1,540
Government funding 86 81 85 126 45 100 94 49 56 85 85 85 85 85 90 90 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 362 378 289 311 350 380 380
Others -7 243 -6 21 -4 -13 -29 39 -10 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 (59) 251 (7) (13) (4) (4) (4)
Non-IFRS opex as % to s 18.5% 14.3% 16.7% 17.7% 13.8% 15.7% 17.3% 20.0% 18.3% 20.6% 19.6% 15.0% 18.4% 13.8% 15.0% 15.8% 14.8% 15.4% 12.7% 13.4% 13.2% 14.1% 11.7% 12.6% 23.3% 16.8% 16.6% 18.3% 15.7% 14.0% 12.8%
SMIC (0981.HK)
Depreciation schedu 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21
Capex 440 908 190 492 777 1343 2280 1333 534 771 1081
Equipment (7yr) 396 817 171 443 699 1208 2052 1200 481 694 973
Facility (10yr) 44 91 19 49 78 134 228 133 53 77 108
Mix
Equipment (7yr) 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
Facility (10yr) 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

Depr calculation
1Q10 0 0 0 0
2Q10 0 0 0 0 0
3Q10 0 0 0 0 0 0
4Q10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1Q11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2Q11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3Q11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4Q11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1Q12 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2Q12 3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3Q12 4 4 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4Q12 3 3 3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1Q13 4 4 4 4 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0
2Q13 7 7 7 7 7 0.5 0 0 0 0 0
3Q13 9 9 9 9 9 9 0.6 1 1 1 1
4Q13 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0.2 0 0 0
1Q14 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0.3 0 0
2Q14 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0.3 0
3Q14 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 0.5
4Q14 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
1Q15 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
2Q15 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
3Q15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
4Q15 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
1Q16 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
2Q16 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32
3Q16 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26
4Q16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
1Q17 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
2Q17 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
3Q17 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
4Q17 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1Q18 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
2Q18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
3Q18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
4Q18 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
1Q19 15.2 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
2Q19 31.5 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
3Q19 6.6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
4Q19 17.0 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
1Q20 26.9 27 27 27 27 27 27
2Q20 46.5 47 47 47 47 47
3Q20 79.0 79 79 79 79
4Q20 46.2 46 46 46
1Q21 18.5 19 19
2Q21 26.7 27
3Q21 37.4
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
1Q26
2Q26
3Q26
4Q26
Total calculated dep 356 385 388 402 425 465 535 578 592 615 645

D&A in CF 278 284 280 286 290 306 351 366 420 462 480
Difference 79 101 108 116 135 159 184 212 173 153 165
78% 74% 72% 71% 68% 66% 66% 63% 71% 75% 74%
Depr in COGS 162 185 201 199 214 211 249 243 280 346 364
% to D&A 58% 65% 72% 69% 74% 69% 71% 66% 67% 75% 76%

Implied capex per wpm (m USD per k, 12'')

12/14nm depreciation analysis

12/14nm capacity (k 0 0 0 3 4 6 9 15 15 15 15
Capacity adds 0 0 3 1 2 3 6 0 0 0
Capex per k wpm 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130
Capex 0 0 390 130 260 390 780 0 0 0

Depr calculation
4Q19 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9
1Q20 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
2Q20 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3
3Q20 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9
4Q20 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9
1Q21 - - -
2Q21 - -
3Q21 -
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
Total calculated depreciation 14 19 28 42 70 70 70 70
Depreciation in COGS 7 9 13 19 29 33 39 39

7/8nm depreciation analysis

7/8nm capacity (k 12” WPM)
Capacity adds
Capex per k wpm
Capex
Depr calculation
4Q22
Total calculated depreciation
Depreciation in COGS
4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24E 4Q24E
2130 869 1672 1822 1987 1259 1732 2135 2341 2235 2252 1707 1873
1917 782 1505 1640 1788 1133 1558 1921 2107 2012 2026 1537 1685
213 87 167 182 199 126 173 213 234 224 225 171 187

90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

0
0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0.5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
8 0.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
8 8 0.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
10 10 10 0.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
17 17 17 17 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 1.4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
32 32 32 32 32 32 2.3 2 2 2 2 2 2
26 26 26 26 26 26 26 1.9 2 2 2 2 2
17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 1.2 1 1 1 1
21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 1.5 2 2 2
22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 1.6 2 2
24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 1.7 2
14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 1.0
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47
79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79
46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
73.8 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74
30.1 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
57.9 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58
63.1 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63
 68.8 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69
43.6 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
60.0 60 60 60 60 60 60
74.0 74 74 74 74 74
81.1 81 81 81 81
77.4 77 77 77
78.0 78 78
59.1 59
64.9

712 734 784 838 891 916 945 994 1,059 1,117 1,174 1,211 1,262

508 534 557 576 604 631 656 679 700 746 797 822 857
203 200 227 262 287 284 289 315 359 371 377 389 405
71% 73% 71% 69% 68% 69% 69% 68% 66% 67% 68% 68% 68%
392 393 415 413 411 476 527 518 602 631 702 723 754
77% 74% 74% 72% 68% 75% 80% 76% 86% 85% 88% 88% 88%

15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3
13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9
27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - -
70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
38 37 37 34 32 36 39 36 40 39 42 42 42

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E 1Q26E 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2017 2018 2019
2414.23 2431.62 1843.92 2022.54 2559.09 2577.52 1954.55 2143.89 2,342 1,808 2,029
2173 2188 1660 1820 2303 2320 1759 1930 -15% -23% 12%
241 243 184 202 256 258 195 214

1
1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
19 1.3 1 1 1 1 1 1
17 17 1.2 1 1 1 1 1
15 15 15 1.1 1 1 1 1
15 15 15 15 1.1 1 1 1
31 31 31 31 31 2.3 2 2
7 7 7 7 7 7 0.5 0
17 17 17 17 17 17 17 1.2
27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47
79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79
46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74
30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58
63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63
 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69
44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74
81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81
77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77
78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78
59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59
65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
83.6 84 84 84 84 84 84 84
84.2 84 84 84 84 84 84
63.9 64 64 64 64 64
70.1 70 70 70 70
88.7 89 89 89
89.3 89 89
67.7 68
74.3 2017 2018 2019
1,333 1,400 1,447 1,503 1,576 1,633 1,693 1,750 1,169 1,314 1,532

906 952 984 1022 1071 1111 1151 1190 971 1,048 1,128
427 448 463 481 504 523 542 560 198 265 404
68% 68% 68% 68% 68% 68% 68% 68% 83% 80% 74%
798 837 866 899 943 977 1013 1047 741 831 747
88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 76% 79% 66%

15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 390

13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9

4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3
13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9
27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 14
42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 7

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E
5,733 4,516 6,351 7,466 8,067 8,712 9,235 9,775 9,728
183% -21% 41% 18% 8% 8% 6% 6% 0%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
2,004 2,563 3,247 3,914 4,764 5,682 6,652

1,313 1,869 2,271 2,667 3,221 3,864 4,524

691 694 976 1,247 1,543 1,818 2,129
66% 73% 70% 68% 68% 68% 68%
917 1,382 1,633 2,124 2,810 3,400 3,981
70% 74% 72% 80% 87% 88% 88%

1,560 0 0 0 0 0

158 279 279 279 279 279

71 150 141 151 164 166
2029E
9,717
0%
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation
Capacity, Utilization, and Wafer Shipments

(8-inch equivalent wafers) Fab code 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
Shanghai Mega Fab (8”) FAB S1 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 94,000
Shanghai 12-inch Fab (12") FAB S2 14,150 18,000 24,750 27,000 31,500
Beijing Mega Fab (12") FAB B1 81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000
Tianjin Fab (8") FAB 7 34,450 34,500 36,000 36,000 37,000
Shenzhen Fab (8”) FAB 15
Shenzhen Fab (12”) FAB 16
Beijing Majority-Owned Fab, North (12") FAB B2, B3
Shanghai Majority-owned Fab, South (12''FAB SN1
Beijing Fab, Jingcheng (12'')
Shanghai Fab, Oriental (12'')
Tianjin Fab, Xiqing (12'')
Avezzano Majority-Owned Fab (8") LF
Total Monthly Capacity 219,600 223,500 231,750 234,000 243,500
Note: Wafers per month at the end of the period in 8” equivalent wafers, calculated on a 30-day basis for comparison purposes

Wafer Shipment 631,776 687,651 653,090 601,602 581,621

Utilization Rate 89.0% 98.5% 88.2% 87.4% 84.2%

Note: Beginning 1Q 2010, capacity utilization rate is based on total equivalent wafers out divided by estimated quarterly capacity.
In prior quarters utilization had been reported based on total wafer out divided by estimated quarterly capacity.
 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
96,000 96,000 96,000 97,000 99,000 100,000 100,000 101,000 106,000
31,500 31,500 31,500 31,500 31,500 31,500 31,500 34,875 45,000
81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000 83,250 83,250 83,250 83,250 83,250
39,000 39,000 39,000 42,000 42,000 43,000 43,000 42,000 45,000
11,000 13,000 19,000 26,000

11,000 13,500 22,500 33,750

247,500 247,500 247,500 251,500 255,750 268,750 284,250 302,625 339,000

648,764 668,811 660,049 692,131 731,730 771,201 820,904 868,309 934,861

94.6% 91.9% 93.0% 99.7% 102.1% 100.5% 100.4% 98.8% 97.9%

terly capacity.
3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
107,000 108,000 110,000 112,000 114,000 109,000 109,000 108,000 106,000
45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 40,500 38,250 38,250 38,250 33,750
87,750 96,750 108,000 112,500 112,500 103,500 103,500 96,750 94,500
45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 47,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 53,000
31,000 31,000 31,000 32,000 32,075 30,000 35,000 35,000 40,300
6,750 6,750 6,750 6,750
34,875 40,500 42,750 51,750 61,875 65,250 65,250 72,000 74,250

40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 42,325 42,325

390,625 406,250 421,750 438,250 447,950 442,750 447,750 449,075 450,875

1,058,504 1,096,011 1,095,761 1,014,158 1,076,039 1,124,821 1,083,630 1,258,336 1315007

97.2% 96.5% 91.8% 85.7% 83.9% 85.8% 88.3% 94.1% 94.7%
4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20
109,000 112,000 115,000 112,000 115,000 115,000 115,000 115,000 115,000
22,500 22,500 18,000 18,000 4,500 4,500 3,150 3,150 3,150
94,500 105,750 112,500 112,500 117,000 117,000 117,000 117,000 117,000
60,000 58,000 57,000 58,000 58,000 63,000 73,000 96,250 93,350
42,000 45,000 50,000 52,000 55,000 55,000 46,000 46,000 46,000
6,750 6,750 6,750 6,750 0
74,250 74,250 81,000 84,600 92,250 112,500 112,500 112,500 112,500
6,750 9,000 13,500 20,250 33,750

42,325 42,325 42,325 0 0 0 0 0 0

451,325 466,575 482,575 443,850 448,500 476,000 480,150 510,150 520,750
27,500 4,150 30,000 10,600

1,217,690 1,089,502 1,284,451 1,315,443 1,339,400 1,406,714 1,435,591 1,440,531 1,415,788

89.9% 89.2% 91.1% 97.0% 98.8% 98.5% 98.6% 97.8% 95.5%
1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22
115,000 115,000 115,000 115,000 115,000 115,000 115,000
3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150
117,000 117,000 117,000 117,000 117,000 117,000 117,000
93,350 93,350 93,350 93,350 93,350 93,350 98,724
66,000 80,000 85,375 92,249 100,124 106,750 113,376
18,000 38,250
112,500 119,250 146,250 166,500 186,750 186,750 186,750
33,750 33,750 33,750 33,750 33,750 33,750 33,750

0 0 0
540,750 561,500 593,875 621,000 649,125 673,750 706,000
20,000 20,750 32,375 27,125 28,125 24,625 32,250

1,558,893 1,745,194 1,719,743 1,723,360 1,840,189 1,886,530 1,797,671

98.7% 100.4% 100.3% 99.4% 100% 97% 92%
4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24
115,000 115,000 115,000 115,000 115,000 115,000
3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150 3,150
117,000 117,000 117,000 117,000 117,000 117,000
99,974 104,724 108,724 123,224 126,224 126,224
113,376 113,376 113,376 113,376 113,376 113,376
45,000 58,500 76,500 90,000 90,000 90,000
186,750 186,750 186,750 186,750 186,750 186,750
33,750 33,750 33,750 33,750 33,750 33,750
13,500 20,250 27,000
2,250

714,000 732,250 754,250 795,750 805,500 814,500

8,000 18,250 22,000 41,500 9,750 9,000

1,574,068 1,251,716 1,403,121 1,536,845 1,675,002 1,794,891

80% 68% 78% 77% 77% 81%
2Q24
115,000
3,150
117,000
126,224
113,376
90,000
186,750
33,750
40,500
11,250

837,000
22,500

2,111,880
85%