3.3 Decision Making Techniques
3.3 Decision Making Techniques
Page 1 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Sales forecasts can be used to identify trends in product sales which can then be compared with the
market as a whole
Method Explanation
Moving Averages
A series of averages calculated from successive segments of a series of
data
These averages smooth data so that trends may be more easily identified
Extrapolation
The prediction of future sales from past data
Extrapolation can often be done simply by extending a line of best fit
Correlation
Where there is a link between two variables there is a correlation
Correlations may be positive or negative
Page 2 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
The moving total is calculated by adding together sales figures for a specified number of periods
E.g. A three-month moving total is calculated by adding the first three months, followed by the
second three months, and the third three months etc.
The centred average is calculated by dividing the moving total by the specified number of periods
E.g. A three-month centred average is calculated by dividing the three month moving total by
three
Page 3 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Worked example
Your notes
RJ Inflatables is a manufacturer of novelty celebration balloons. Its monthly sales from January to July
are shown in Table A.
Rachel Jameson, the managing director, is concerned that sales are declining but is struggling to
identify a trend with the sales data she has available. Rachel’s financial administrator has suggested
using a moving average so that she can forecast future sales with greater accuracy.
Table A
Page 4 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Calculate a three-month moving average using RJ Inflatables January to July sales data. (6)
Step 1 - Calculate a three-month moving total of sales for each group of three months: Your notes
Step 2 - Calculate the three-month centred average for each group of three months
Page 5 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Your notes
When plotted on the same graph the 3-month centred average provides a smoother curve which
makes extrapolation of the data for forecasting relatively straightforward
Page 6 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Your notes
Page 7 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
An example of a scatter graph showing the number of sales managers employed by a business and the
volume of Items sold
Types of correlation
A correlation exists where there is a relationship or connection between two variables
A positive correlation means as one variable increases, so does the other variable
A line of best fit that slopes upwards can be identified
A negative correlation means as one variable increases, the other variable decreases
A line of best fit that slopes downwards can be identified
No correlation means there is no connection between the two variables
Page 8 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Your notes
Correlation does not always indicate a relationship or causation between two sets of variables so
businesses need to conduct research to establish whether a relationship exists as well as the
strength of that relationship
Where a line of best fit can be identified and when causation is determined, a business can
extrapolate the data to make predictions around changes to either of the variables
E.g. extrapolation the line of best fit in the example below, the business could predict that
employing seven sales managers would be result in likely sales of 46 units
Extrapolation assumes that what has happened in the past will be the same as what will happen in the
future
Page 9 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Your notes
An example of a scatter graph with a line of best fit showing the number of sales managers employed by
a business and the volume of items sold
Exam Tip
When drawing a line of best fit you should try to include as many data points above the line as below
the line.
Watch out for outlying data - if there is more than one outlier above the line, adjust your line of best fit
upwards. Similarly, if there is more than one outlier below the line, adjust your line of best fit
downwards. Just one outlier should not influence your line of best fit.
Page 10 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Page 11 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Examples of external factors that may influence the accuracy of the sales forecast
Your notes
In many cases the sales forecast can provide little more than an estimate of future performance
As long as it is approximately accurate businesses can use the sales forecast to plan resources
such as staff, finance and production and to produce budgets
Page 12 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Before an investment can be appraised key data will need to be collected, including
Sales forecasts
Fixed and variable costs data
Pricing information
Borrowing costs
The collection and analysis of this data is likely to take some time
It requires significant experience to interpret the data appropriately before the investment
appraisal can take place
Page 13 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Initial Outlay
= Years / Months
Net Cash Flow per Period
Worked example
1. Simple Payback Calculation
Gomez Carpets is considering an investment in a new storage facility at a cost of £200,000. It
expects additional net cash flow of £30,000 per year as a result of the investment.
Calculate the Payback period for the investment. (3)
Step 1 - Divide the initial outlay by the additional expected net cash flow
£ 200,000
= 6 . 67 years (1 mark)
£ 30,000
Step 2 - Convert the outcome to years and months
6 years
0.67 years = 8.04 months (1 mark)
Payback period = 6 years and 8 months (3 marks for the correct answer)
Page 14 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Worked example
Your notes
2. Payback calculation for varying cash flow over time
Hammer and Son provides a household repairs service that has recently employed a new
handywoman who requires her own van. The new van will be purchased for £32,000
The net cash flows are expected to vary over the five years following its purchase and are shown in the
table below.
Step 1 - Identify the final year where the cumulative cash flow is negative
In this case the cumulative cash flow figure is -£2,000 at the end of Year 3
This is the remaining amount (outlay) outstanding. (1 mark)
Step 2 - Calculate the monthly net cash flow for the next year
£3,000 ÷ 12 (months) = £250 (1 mark)
Step 3 - Divide the remaining outlay outstanding by the monthly net cash flow
£2000 ÷ £250 = 8 months (1 mark)
Page 15 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Benefits Drawbacks
It is particularly useful for businesses where the Payback only considers the total length of time
cash flow management is vital to recover an investment
Businesses can identify the point at which an Neither the timing nor the future value of cash
investment is paid back and contributing inflows is considered
positively to cash flow
It may encourage a short-termism approach
It is also useful where new technology is
introduced regularly Potentially lucrative investments may be
dismissed as they take longer to pay back than
Businesses purchasing equipment can calculate alternatives
whether an investment ‘pays back’ before an
upgrade is available
Page 16 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
The outcome of the formula is expressed as a percentage which makes it easy to compare different
investment options
Worked example
Creative Frames, a small artwork framing business, is considering an investment of £40,000 in new
machinery. Megan, the business owner, believes that total cash inflows over a 6-year period will be
£140,000 and total cash outflows will be £92,000.
Calculate the Average Rate of Return of the proposed investment. (4 marks)
Step 1 - Calculate the total profit over the lifetime of the investment
Total cash inflows - Total cash outflows = Total profit
£140,000 - £92,000 = £48,000 (1 mark)
Step 2 - Divide the total profit by the number of years of the investment project to find the average
annual profit
£48,000 ÷ 6 year = £8,000 (1 mark)
Page 17 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
The Advantages & Disadvantages of Using the Average Rate of Return (ARR)
Your notes
Advantages Disadvantages
It considers all of the net cash flows As it depends on an average of cash flows it
generated by an investment over time ignores the timing of those cash flows
It is easy to understand and compare the The opportunity cost of the investment is ignored
percentage returns with each other as values are nether expressed in real terms nor
adjustments made for the impact of interest rates
and time
Page 18 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
To calculate the Net Present Value of an investment the value of all future net cash flows in today’s
terms need to be calculated first - and then discounted using a table
The cost of the initial investment is deducted from the total of the discounted net cash flows
If future net cash flows minus the initial investment is positive, then the investment is likely to
be worthwhile
If the sum of future net cash flows minus the initial investment is negative, then the investment
is unlikely to be worthwhile
Discounted cash flows are calculated using discount tables which allow future cash flows to be
expressed in today’s terms
Page 19 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Worked example
Your notes
Brownsea Sightseeing Tours Ltd is considering purchasing a new pleasure craft at a cost of £325,000.
It expects the investment to achieve the following net cash flows over five years of operation
Using the 10% discount factor calculate the NPV of the leisure craft investment. (4 marks)
Step 1 - Calculate the discounted cash flow for each year by multiplying the net cash flow by the
discount factor
Page 20 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Your notes
(2 marks)
Step 2 - Add together the discounted cash flow values for each year, including Year 0 £325,000 +
£100,100 + £74,400 £56,250 + £44,200 + £37,200
= (12,550)
The Net present Value of the investment is -£12,550. This suggests that the investment in the new
pleasure craft is not financially worthwhile. (1 mark)
Advantages Disadvantages
Page 21 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Businesses may choose different discount One of the primary challenges of using the NPV
tables (20%, 10%, 5% etc) to adjust the level of method is accurately forecasting future cash
risk involved in a project allowing a range of flows Your notes
scenarios to be considered
Selecting an appropriate discount rate can be
challenging, and even small changes in the
discount rate can significantly impact the
calculated NPV
Exam Tip
A common error made by students is the assumption that discounted cash flow takes into account the
effects of inflation on investment decisions. To account for inflation, the discount rate used in the NPV
calculation should be adjusted to reflect the expected inflation rate.
Factors other than the cost of investment and the return on investment are not considered
Business finances and availability of external finance to fund the investment
The overall corporate objectives
Potential for positive public relations or meeting social responsibilities
Page 22 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Using decision trees provides several key advantages to the decision making process
Constructing a decision tree diagram may reveal options that haven't previously been considered
Managers are forced to consider the risks associated with their choice, ahead of implementation
The quantitative approach requires deep research to be carried out
Page 23 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Your notes
A simple decision tree based on a choice of whether to invest in opening a new store or expand its
website
Points where decisions need to be made are represented by squares
Square A represents the fact that a choice is required on opening a new store or expanding the
website
Points where there are different outcomes are represented by circles called nodes
Circles B and C represent points at which the different options have a range of outcomes -
success or failure
Page 24 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
The monetary value of each decision is based on the expected profit or loss of the outcome
If opening a new store is successful a £420,000 profit is expected
If opening a new store is unsuccessful a £24,000 loss is expected
If expanding the website is successful a £480,000 profit is expected
If expanding the website is unsuccessful a £32,000 loss is expected
To calculate the expected monetary value of a decision, the following formula is used
(Expected value of success x Probability) + (Expected value of failure x Probability)
Using the example above the expected value of opening a new store is
(£420,000 x 0.7) + (-£24,000 x 0.3)
= £294,000 + -£7,200
= £286,800
Using the example above the expected value of expanding the website is
(£480,000 x 0.6) + (-£32,000 x 0.4)
= £288,000 + -£12,800
= £275,200
As the expected value of opening a new store is higher at £286,800, than that of expanding the
website at £275,200, based purely on financial terms the business should choose the option to open a
new store
Page 25 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Worked example
Your notes
Caramelac is a lactose-free chocolate product manufactured by a large multinational confectionery
business. In recent years increased competition from other well-known brands has started to impact
on sales of the product and managers are determined to maintain Caramelac’s market share.
Market research has shown that the business has two options:
a) Redevelop the product
b) Create a new advertising campaign
The expected outcomes and the probabilities of success and failure are shown in the decision tree
below
Page 26 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Calculate the expected values of each option and decide, on financial grounds, which option the Your notes
Caramelac's brand managers should choose. 6 marks)
Page 27 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Worked example
Your notes
In some cases the decision tree diagram provides expected revenues rather than profit or loss
for the range of outcomes
In these diagrams the costs related to each outcome are also provided
To calculate the expected value of each outcome costs must be deducted from expected
revenues
A decision tree based on a decision whether to launch a new product or improve an existing
product
To calculate the expected monetary value of a decision where revenues and costs are included in
the diagram
(Expected value of success x Probability) + ( Expected value of failure x Probability) -
Cost
Page 28 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
As the expected value of launching a new product is marginally higher at £10,400 than that of
improving the existing product at £10,300, the business should choose the option to launch a new
product
In this case the decision tree has demonstrated that there is little between the two options and
the business should look at other factors that may inform their decision
Exam Tip
Expected values are not the same thing as profit or revenues generated by a choice. In the above
example, launching a new product is expected to either generate a positive revenue figure of
£520,000 or generate a negative revenue figure of £54,000. It is never forecast that a revenue figure
of £200,300 will be achieved. This is purely a figure used in making the choice between this option and
the alternative and does not represent the actual amount of revenue that is expected to be achieved.
Page 29 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Page 30 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
It allows managers to identify the relationships between the activities involved and to work out the
most efficient way of completing the project
Resources such as raw materials and components can be ordered or hired at precisely the right
time they are needed
Working capital may be managed efficiently
Where delays occur managers can identify the implications for the project’s completion and
redirect resources if required
Page 31 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Element Description
Node A node is a circle that represents a point in time where an activity is started or
finished
The node is split into three sections
The left half of the circle is the activity number
The top right section shows the earliest start time (EST) that an activity can begin
based on the completion of the previous activity
The bottom right section shows the latest finish time (LFT) by which the previous
activity must be completed
Page 32 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Your notes
Page 33 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
The EST for each activity is placed in the top right of each node
Node 1 is the starting point of the project and where both Activity A and Activity B begin
Activity A and Activity B are independent processes
Activity A has a duration of 2 days and its earliest start time (EST) is 0 days
Activity B has a duration of 3 days and its EST is also 0 days
Activity C and Activity D both begin at Node 2 and are dependent upon the completion of Activity
A but are independent from each other
Activity C has a duration of 3 days and its EST is 2 days
Activity D has a duration of 5 days and its EST is also 2 days
Activity E begins at Node 3
Activity E has a duration of 4 days and its EST is 3 days
Activity F begins at Node 4
Activity F has a duration of 2 days and its EST is 5 days
Page 34 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
An example of a simple network diagram showing Earliest Start Times and Latest Finish Times
Working backwards from Node 7 it is now possible to calculate the Latest Finish Time for each activity
by subtracting the duration of each task
The LFT for each activity is placed in the bottom right of each node
Node 7 is the end point of the project which has a latest finish time of 10 days
Activity H has a duration of 3 days
The LFT in Node 6 is 7 days (10 days - 3 days)
Activity G has a duration of 1 day
The LFT in Node 5 is 9 days (10 days - 1 day)
Activity F has a duration of 2 days
The LFT in Node 4 is 8 days (10 days - 2 days)
Activity E has a duration of 4 days
The LFT in Node 3 is 3 days (7 days - 4 days)
Page 35 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Page 36 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
An example of a simple network diagram showing float nodes (4 and 5) and a critical node (6)
The total float refers specifically to spare time that is available so that the overall project completion is
not delayed
Page 37 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
LFT for the activity - Duration of the activity - EST for the activity Your notes
Using the diagram above the following total float times can be calculated for Activities A to H
A 4 2 0 2
B 3 3 0 0
C 8 3 2 3
D 9 5 2 2
E 7 4 3 0
F 10 2 5 3
G 10 1 7 2
H 10 3 7 0
Page 38 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Worked example
The network diagram below shows the activities involved in a new promotional campaign for a small Your notes
fashion accessories business as well as the time (in weeks) it is expected that each activity will take to
complete.
Calculate
a) The earliest start times and latest finish times for each node. (4 marks)
b) The total float time for activity G. (3 marks)
Step 1 - Calculate the Earliest Start Times (EST)
Node 1 EST = 0
Node 2 EST = 0 + 3 = 3 but 0 + 4 = 4 so 4
Node 3 EST = 4 + 5 = 9
Node 4 EST = 4 + 2 = 6
Node 5 EST = 9 + 3 = 12
Node 6 EST = 6 + 4 = 10
Node 7 EST = 4 + 6 = 10
Page 39 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Your notes
Step 2 - Calculate the Latest Finish Times (LFT)
Node 8 = 15
Node 7 = 15 - 5 = 10
Node 6 = 15 - 4 = 11
Node 5 =15 - 2 = 13
Node 4 =11 - 4 = 7
Node 3 =13 - 3 = 10
Node 2 = 10 - 6 = 4
Node 1 = 4 - 4 = 0
Page 40 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers
Head to www.savemyexams.com for more awesome resources
Very lengthy or complex projects involve a very Specialist network planning software may be
large number of activities that have numerous required
dependencies Layers of supervision may be required to
manage different groups of activities within the
project
Network analysis often relies on estimates and Significant research is required prior to the
forecasts completion of network analysis
Close and honest working relationships with
suppliers are essential
Network analysis does not guarantee the Project managers will need to be highly skilled
success of a project and will need experience of working with
complicated plans
Resources may not prove to be as flexible as Employees may require additional training in
hoped when managers identify float periods order to transfer to critical tasks
Machinery and other capital resources may
require adaptation
Page 41 of 41
© 2015-2024 Save My Exams, Ltd. · Revision Notes, Topic Questions, Past Papers