Himalayan Small Hydropower Summit

(October 12-13, 2006), Dehradun

ELECTRICAL LOAD SURVEY & LOAD FORECAST
FOR A STAND ALONE SMALL HYDROPOWER STATION

S.N. Singh
Senior Scientific Officer, AHEC
Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee
Roorkee

INTRODUCTION

Energy plays a significant role in the economic and technological advancement of modern
society and plays crucial role in human life standard. In hilly regions energy situation in terms
of availability and demand is very different from that in the urban areas. Large parts of hilly
and remotely located regions remain un-electrified. Laying of transmission lines across such
regions poses a great problem because of long distances of be covered and the existence of
hills, mountains, ridges, valleys etc. The maintenance of these lines is a tough job in view of
frequent occurrence of storms, snow falls, land slides, ice formations etc. for such hilly
isolated regions. Diesel-generating sets are not preferable because of high transportation cost
of fuel for such mountain areas. There is no choice but to turn to decentralized renewable
sources of energy. Amongst the renewable sources, small hydropower (SHP) occupied an
important place. Hydropower potential may be calculated on the basis of available head and
discharge for SHP development. but for deciding the installed capacity of small hydropower
project the electrical load survey and forecast plays an important role.

HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL

Power potential can be calculated with the help of head and discharge available at a particular
small hydropower (SHP) project site to be developed. The power is calculated as:

P = 9.81 ηQH (1)

Where,
Q = design discharge in m3/s
H = design head in m
η = overall efficiency of power conversion system

The installed capacity of the small hydropower project can be decided on the basis of power
obtained as in equation (1). Accordingly civil works (like intake, power channel etc.) and
electro-mechanical work (like turbine, generator etc.) would be carried out. If the generated
power would be fully consumed by consumers living with in 4-10 km radial distance from the
proposed SHP station then the small hydropower project is economically viable and if not
then it is not viable. Therefore generated power evacuation of SHP project is necessary,
therefore starting the civil work as well as E & M works, electrical load survey and load
forecast is necessary before deciding the installed capacity of hydropower project.

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LOAD FACTOR

For the load forecast knowledge of load factor is necessary. The load factor may be daily or
monthly or annually. The annual load factor may be defined as given below.

No. of units actually supplied in a year

Annual load factor =
Maximum no. of units that can be supplied in a year

No. of units actually supplied in a year

=
Maximum power demand x 365 x 24

No. of units actually supplied in a year

=
Maximum power demand x 8760

Here, maximum power demand means the value of the connected peak load and not the
maximum kW installed capacity of the small hydropower station. The installed capacity of the
SHP station should be such that it will be the peak load demand.

ELECTRICAL LOAD SURVEY

For the power evacuation knowledge of power requirement of near by populations are
necessary. This can be achieved by taking the interview of gram pradhans, school teachers
etc. The following factors may be considered during the electrical load survey of nearby
villages up to 4 to 10 km distance from the location of proposed SHP station.

(i) Number of villages.

(ii) No. of houses.
(iii) Population.
(iv) No. of projected connections.
(v) Average energy consumptions.
(vi) Demand for street lighting.
(vii) No. of commercial establishment and energy demand for each establishment.
(viii) No. of schools, health centers and other community services and their energy
demand.
(ix) No. of small industries with energy requirement for each.
(x) Miscellaneous demand.
(xi) Current and projected demand for electrical energy of various types of
consumption.

DATA FOR VARIOUS TYPE OF CONSUMERS

Let during the load survey, with in 4 to 10 km radius we found there are eight villages & 400
houses with following data for load forecast of different type of consumers. These data are
collected for a period of ten years after taking interview of local populations, gram pradhans
(village heads), shop-keepers, school teachers etc.
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Domestic
First year : 150 consumers
Average consumption : 30 kWh per month per consumer
Growth rate : (i) 20 new consumers per year
(ii) 5% per annum increase in consumption
Street Lights
First year : 40 street light points
Average consumption : 150 kWh per annum per light point
Growth rate : 5% per annum increase in consumption
Commercial
First year : 15 consumers
Average consumption : 30 kWh per month per consumer
Growth rate : (i) 2 consumer per year
(ii) 5% per annum increase in consumption
Public Institutions
First year : 5 consumers
Average consumption : 100 kWh per month per consumer
Growth rate : 5% per annum increase in consumption
Industry
First year : 4 consumers
Average consumption : 500 kWh per month per industry
Growth rate : 1 consumer per year
Miscellaneous
First year : 10000 kWh per year
Growth rate : 10% per annum increase in consumption
CALCULATION OF VARIOUS TYPE OF CONSUMPTION
The consumptions of various types of consumers are calculated on the basis of above data as
below:
Domestic
I year 150 x 30 x 12 = 54.0 x 103 kWh
II year 170 x 30 x 1.05 x 12 = 64.3 x 103 kWh
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
X year 330 x 30 x 1.45 x 12 = 172.3 x 103 kWh
Street Lights
I year 40 x 150 = 6.0 x 103 kWh
II year 40 x 150 x 1.05 = 6.3 x 103 kWh
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
X year 40 x 150 x 1.45 = 8.70 x 103 kWh
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Commercial
I year 15 x 30 x 12 = 5.4 x 103 kWh
II year 17 x 30 x 1.05 x 12 = 6.4 x 103 kWh
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
X year 33 x 30 x 1.45 x 12 = 17.2 x 103 kWh
Public Institutions
I year 5 x 100 x 12 = 6.0 x 103 kWh
II year 5 x 100 x 1.05 x 12 = 6.3 x 103 kWh
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
X year 5 x 100 x 1.45 x 12 = 8.7 x 103 kWh
Industry
I year 4 x 500 x 12 = 24.0 x 103 kWh
II year 5 x 500 x 12 = 30.0 x 103 kWh
--------------------------------------------------------------------
X year 13 x 500 x 12 = 78.0 x 103 kWh
Miscellaneous
I year 10000 x 1 = 10.0 x 103 kWh
II year 10000 x 1.1 = 11.0 x 103 kWh
--------------------------------------------------------------------
X year 10000 x 1.9 = 19.0 x 103 kWh
CALCULATION FOR MAXIMUM DEMAND
Maximum demand in each year is as below:
Number of units actually supplied in a year
Maximum demand =
Load factor x 8760 (hrs in one year)
116 x 10 3
Maximum demand in I year = = 26.48 kW
0.5 x 8760
137 x 10 3
Maximum demand in II year = = 28.43 kW
0.55 x 8760
---------------------------------------------------------------------
334 x 10 3
Maximum demand in X year = = 50.84 kW
0.75 x 8760
LOAD FORECAST TABLE
Data obtained from 6.0 & 7.0 a load forecast table can be prepared as given in Table 1. In this
table it is assumed that transmission and distribution losses are 10% of the total
consumptions. The load factor is also assumed for each year.

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TABLE 1: LOAD FORECAST OF PROPOSED SHP STATION FOR TEN YEARS

Sl Category of Consumer I yr. x II yr. x III yr. x IV yr. x V yr. x VI yr. x VII yr. x VIII yr. x IX yr. x X yr. x
No 103 kWh 103 kWh 103 kWh 103 kWh 103 kWh 103 kWh 103 kWh 103 kWh 103 kWh 103 kWh
1 Domestic 54.00 64.3 75.2 86.9 99.4 112.5 126.4 140.9 156.2 172.3

2 Street light 6.00 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.20 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.7

3 Commercial 5.4 6.4 7.5 8.7 9.9 11.3 12.6 14.1 15.6 17.2

4 Public institution 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.7

5 Industry 24.0 30.0 36.0 42.0 48.0 54.0 60.0 66.0 72.0 78.0

6 Miscellaneous 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.00 19.0

7 Sub Total (1 to 6) 105.4 124.3 143.9 164.4 185.7 207.8 230.6 254.2 278.6 303.9

8 Transmission & distribution 10.54 12.43 14.39 16.44 18.57 20.78 23.06 25.42 27.86 30.39
losses 10% of at Sl. (7)

9 Energy demand at bus bar 115.94 136.73 158.29 180.84 204.27 228.58 253.66 279.62 306.46 334.29
(7+8)
10 Say 116.0 137.0 158.0 181.0 204.0 229.0 254.0 280.0 306.0 334.0

11 Load factor (Assume) 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75

12 Peak load (max demand in kW) 26.48 28.43 30.06 31.78 33.26 36.81 42.27 43.79 47.20 50.84

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CONCLUSION

It is clear from the load-forecast table that the expected peak load in first year of operation
is 26.48 kW which increases every year. The peak demand at the end of tenth year shall be
about 50 kW. It means if the installed capacity of SHP is 50 kW then it will operate up to
ninth under capacity and from tenth year onward it will operate at is installed capacity. Let
us power potential available at proposed SHP project is more than 50 kW say 200 kW and
we put the installed capacity of 200 kW without doing electrical load survey, then cost of
civil works & E&M works will be more as compared to 50 kW. The SHP project will be
under utilization of more than ten years.

REFERENCES

1. Shri R.V. Shahi Secretary, Ministry of India Govt. of India “India's Strategy to
provide Electricity for all” 15th Conference on Electric Power Supply Industry
(CEPSI 2004) Shangai, China, 18 October 2004.
2. Ikhupuleng Dube “Impact of energy subsidies on energy consumption and supply
in Zimbabwe. Do the urban poor really benefit?” Energy Policy, Volume 31, Issue
15 December 2003, Pages 1635-1645.

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