https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2021.

p0329
Estimation of Potential Economic Losses Due to Flooding
Considering Variations of Spatial Distribution of Houses and Firms in a City

Paper:

Estimation of Potential Economic Losses Due to

Flooding Considering Variations of
Spatial Distribution of Houses and Firms in a City
Kaito Kotone∗ , Kenji Taniguchi∗∗,† , Koichi Nakamura∗∗∗ , and Yuki Takayama∗∗
∗
Division of Environmental Design, Kanazawa University
Kakuma-Machi, Kanazawa, Ishikawa 920-1192, Japan
∗∗
Faculty of Geosciences and Civil Engineering, Kanazawa University, Ishikawa, Japan
† Corresponding author, E-mail: [email protected]
∗∗∗ Nihonkai Consultant Co., Ltd., Ishikawa, Japan

[Received September 30, 2020; accepted November 30, 2020]

In Japan, flood disasters caused by record-breaking 1. Introduction

heavy rainfall frequently cause significant damages.
It is also great concern that heavy rainfall may in- In recent years, record-breaking heavy rainfalls have
crease and occur more frequently due to global warm- frequently occurred in Japan. In 2019, a super typhoon,
ing. In July 2013, a heavy rainfall event caused record- Hagibis, made landfall in Shizuoka Prefecture and caused
flooding of the Kakehashi River in Ishikawa Prefec- severe damage across a wide area of the eastern part of
ture. In this study, pseudo global warming (PGW) Japan. In 2018, a large linear heavy rainfall system de-
experiments were implemented for the heavy rainfall veloped in the western part of Japan. Not only such
in 1998 and 2013 around the Kakehashi River basin. large-scale heavy rainfall systems, but also a short-time
Based on the results of PGW simulations, rainfall with concentrated heavy rainfalls have caused critical dam-
different return periods were generated. Runoff anal- ages (e.g., the heavy rainfall event in the Toga River in
yses and inundation simulations were carried out by 2008). Frequencies of extreme rainfall events (rainfall >
forcings with multiple return periods, and the results 100 mm/day, 200 mm/day, 50 mm/h, 80 mm/h, etc.) are
were used to estimate the economic losses due to flood reported to have increased in Japan during the 115 years
inundation. Expected values of the economic losses from 1901–2015 [1]. Such heavy rainfalls exceed de-
were calculated using two methods for multiple return sign level rainfalls and have increased inundation dam-
periods. Differences between the two expected values ages. Moreover, due to climate change associated with
indicates the importance of the weighting method for global warming, rainfalls are expected to become large-
the result of each return period. In addition, varia- scale and concentrated for a short period of time, and
tions of spatial distribution of houses and firms in a flood damage will become more serious. In response to
city (i.e., urban structure) were simulated using a com- flood damage caused by unexpected rainfall, the Ministry
putable urban economics (CUE) model for the area of of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan
middle-lower reach of the Kakehashi River basin to (MLIT) announced “Implementation of disaster preven-
examine its impact on economic loss due to flooding. tion and mitigation at a new stage” in January 2015 [2].
In the simulation using the CUE model, a more severe This announcement was presented as a goal to save lives
flood inundation risk and an additional insurance bur- and avoid catastrophic socioeconomic damage. In May
den for general households were added, and possible 2015, the Flood Control Act in Japan was amended, and it
variations of urban structure were estimated around was stipulated that flood control areas should be expanded
the lower part of the Kakehashi River basin. Under and announced to the public, assuming the maximum pos-
the more severe risk condition, relocation proceeded sible rainfall. In the announcement by MLIT, an assumed
from higher risk areas to safer areas, and possible eco- maximum scale rainfall is defined as that with a return
nomic losses decreased in the target area. This result period of 1,000 years or more in the target river basin ac-
indicates that proper recognition of risk can reduce cording to a statistical measure based on past observed
flood damages. On the other hand, there were small rainfall. The return periods of the current design rain-
variations in economic losses under the condition with falls are from about 80 to 200 years for first-class rivers in
the additional flood insurance burden. Japan.
There is a large gap between these two standards and
estimation of intermediate scale rainfall is also important.
Keywords: flood, climate change, inundation simulation, For long periods, prevention of flood damages using flood
flood economic loss, computable urban economics (CUE) control facilities for design rainfalls has been a goal of
model flood management in Japan. However, it is difficult to pre-

Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.3, 2021 329

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Kotone, K. et al.

vent flood damage by the assumed maximum scale rain-

fall using only hardware measures.
Taniguchi and Shibuo [3] calculated the inundation
depth from runoff analysis and flood simulation with var-
ious probable annual rainfall inputs and estimated the ex-
pected inundation depth from the middle to lower reaches
of the Kakehashi River basin in Ishikawa Prefecture.
In this study, reproductive and pseudo global warming
(PGW) simulations are made for the heavy rainfall events
in the basin in 1998 and 2013. The rainfall event in 2013
caused a record flood water level of the Kakehashi River.
Results of numerical weather simulations are expanded to
rainfall with multiple return periods. Using rainfalls of Fig. 1. (a) Target area for the seamless model. Red crosses
multiple return periods, runoff analyses and flood simula- indicate cross sections for levee breach, (b) Kakehashi River
tions are implemented to estimate inundation depths. Us- basin and river network for RRI model.
ing the simulated inundation depth as inputs, economic
losses are then estimated for each return period accord-
ing to the Flood Control Economic Survey Manual (draft) path is 42 km long and the basin area is 271.2 km2 . The
published by MLIT [4]. By using estimated economic city of Komatsu covers most of the basin, but part of the
losses for multiple return periods, expected value of flood Nabetani and Hatcho river basins are also covered by the
economic loss is calculated for the area of the lower Kake- cities of Nomi and Hakusan. In addition, more than 70%
hashi River including Komatsu City, the second largest of the main flow channel and basin area are situated in the
city in Ishikawa Prefecture. mountainous area.
As an urban planning approach, Takagi et al. [5] pre-
dicted flood safety level and land use using the com-
putable urban economics (CUE) model under the con-
3. Method
dition of implementation of flood control measures and
evaluated their effects. Seya et al. [6] discussed flood
3.1. Precipitation for Runoff Analyses
vulnerability assessment using the extended CUE model
and conducted scenario analysis considering the effects In this study, the results of Taniguchi and Shibuo [3]
of global warming. Teramoto et al. [7] evaluated the cost- were used to prepare forcing data for runoff analysis. The
benefit of two types of land use regulation and examined rainfall data used herein are simulation results based on
the applicability of such regulation to reduce flood risk. the rainfall that occurred in September 1998 and the rain-
This study uses the CUE model for the Kakehashi River fall event that occurred in July 2013. Weather Research
basin and simulates variations of spatial distribution of and Forecasting model (WRF) [8] version 3.6.1 was used
houses and firms in a city (i.e., urban structure) with dif- for numerical weather simulations. Initial and boundary
ferent levels of flood risk and additional economic bur- conditions for reproductive simulations were generated
dens in vulnerable areas. Then, impacts of these varia- using NCEP FNL [9] and NOAA OI SST [10]. To esti-
tions on flood economic losses are evaluated. mate possible future heavy rainfalls, a PGW method [11]
Section 2 provides an overview of the target river basin. was applied. To generate PGW conditions as initial and
In Section 3, simulation forcing, models, and calculation boundary conditions for numerical weather simulations,
method of flood economic loss are introduced. Flood eco- results by four global climate models (GCMs) in the
nomic loss and its expected values are discussed in Sec- 5th phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project
tion 4. The impacts of variations in urban structures on (CMIP5 [12]) were used. In the CMIP5 experiment, sev-
flood economic losses are shown in Section 5. Finally, eral greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (representa-
concluding remarks are presented in Section 6. tive concentration pathways: RCPs [12]) were adopted.
To implement PGW simulation, future anomaly between
RCP8.5 and historical experiments were added to NCEP
2. Target Basin FNL. Future anomaly was defined as the difference in
climatological monthly mean value for RCP8.5 and his-
The Kakehashi River is a first-class river flowing torical run. Climatological value for future and cur-
through Ishikawa Prefecture. The river starts at Mt. Suzu- rent climate are calculated as averages of 2090–2100 and
gadake of the Dainichizan mountain range of Mt. Haku- 1990–2000, respectively. For WRF simulations, a two-
san, heads north and enters Nomi, Enuma hills and joins way three-level nesting method was adopted as shown in
several branches (Goutani river, Kasukami river, Fuddaiji Fig. 2. The spatial resolutions of three domains (D01,
river) and enters the plains. After that, the Nabetani, D02, and D03) were 30 km, 10 km, and 2 km, respec-
Hatcho, and Mae rivers join the Kakehashi River. It then tively. An outline of WRF settings is presented in Table 1.
flows into the Sea of Japan. The Kibagata lagoon is the In addition to the PGW method, a simple ensem-
headwater of the Mae River (Fig. 1(a)). The main flow ble simulation technique (the lagged average forecasting

330 Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.3, 2021

 Estimation of Potential Economic Losses Due to Flooding
Considering Variations of Spatial Distribution of Houses and Firms in a City

Table 2. Pairs of the scale factors α and β .

(α , β ) (α , β ) (α , β ) (α , β )
       
1 1 2 1 2 2 1
− , 0, , ,
3 3 3 3 3 3 3
       
1 2 1 1 1 2 2
− , ,− ,1 ,
3 3 3 3 3 3 3
       
1 1 2 1 1
− ,1 ,0 ,− 1, −
3 3 3 3 3
       
1 1 1 2 1
0, , ,0 1,
3 3 3 3 3

Fig. 2. Target domains of the WRF simulations. Green, yel-

low, and red areas indicate D01, D02, and D03, respectively.

Table 1. Outline of WRF settings.

Item Setting
Model version 3.6.1
Spatial resolution 30 km, 10 km, 2 km
Temporal resolution 120 sec, 60 sec, 12 sec
Cloud microphysics Lin ice scheme
Cumulus parameterization Betts-Miller-Janjic
Radiation scheme RRTM scheme
Surface layer scheme RRTM scheme
Land surface model Monin-Obuloc
Mello-Yamada Nakanichi and
Boundary layer model
Niino level 3 scheme
Data assimilation Spectral nudging (only for D01)
Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of two-days total rainfall for the
three selected rainfall events. The white line indicates the
Kakehashi river basin. The unit of the color bar is mm.
(LAF) method [13]) was applied to increase the number
of sample rainfalls. In the LAF method, three base state
vectors X1 , X2 , and X3 for different times were initially
obtained. Then, two difference vectors ΔX2 and ΔX3 were the Kakehashi River basin (indicated by a white line).
generated as the difference between X2 and X1 and be- Two rainfall events have time variation of a centralized
tween X3 and X1 , respectively. Finally, new state vec- peak, and another has backward concentrated time varia-
tors Xn are calculated as follows: tion (Fig. 4).
The selected rainfall was stretched to correspond to
Xn = X1 + α ΔX2 + β ΔX3 , . . . . . . . . (1)
multiple return periods. In the Kakehashi River basin,
where α and β are scale factors for ΔX2 and ΔX3 , respec- 9-hour rainfall is used as a design rainfall for flood
tively. A total of 19 ensemble members were generated prevention planning. Here, the 9-hour rainfalls were
for the reproductive simulation and each PGW simulation. calculated for the period from 500 to 43,000 years.
The pairs of the scale factors are listed in Table 2. From 500 to 3,000 years, the 9-hour rainfalls were esti-
From the results of ensemble PGW simulations, three mated for each 500 years. The rainfalls were then de-
rainfall events with relatively uniform spatial distribution fined with 5 mm intervals for the return period longer
were visually selected to consider impacts of various flood than 3,000 years. Four probability distribution models
patterns. Fig. 3 shows the spatial distribution of the to- were adopted to estimate the target rainfalls: Iwai, lognor-
tal rainfall during two days in the simulation for the se- mal distribution 3 parameter quantile, lognormal distri-
lected three rainfall events. There are areas with small bution 2 parameter (SladeI, L product-moment method),
(< 200 mm) or large (> 320 mm) total rainfall, but spa- and lognormal distribution 2 parameter (SladeI, product-
tial variations of the total rainfall are relatively small in moment method). The average value estimated from the

Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.3, 2021 331

Kotone, K. et al.

(the seamless model [15]) that can consider various flood-

ing factors. The seamless model consists of a one-
dimensional river channel model, a sewer network model,
and a surface flood model. As for the sewerage network
model, since the sewerage data are not available for the
target area, a simple drainage model [16] was constructed
using the specifications of the drainage area and corre-
sponding drainage facilities according to the Komatsu
City drainage plan. The one-dimensional river model
covers 12.4 km from the mouth of the Kakehashi River.
River discharge calculated by the RRI model was given
as a boundary condition to the upstream end of the one-
dimensional river model. Interflow from the five tribu-
taries (Kasukami, Fuddaiji, Nabetani, Hatcho, and Mae
Fig. 4. Temporal variations of the basin mean rainfall in rivers) were given as a lateral boundary condition calcu-
the Kakehashi River for the three selected rainfall events. lated by the RRI model. For the boundary condition at
Results are values stretched to 43,000 years rainfall.
the downstream end of the one-dimensional river model,
the water level was calculated as the average of the ob-
served tidal level at Mikuni and Kanazawa, which are lo-
Table 3. 9-hour rainfall for each return period (mm). cated to the south and north of the mouth of the Kakehashi
River, respectively. Flood flow caused by a levee breach
Return 9-hour Return 9-hour and inland flood are calculated by a two-dimensional un-
period rainfall period rainfall steady flow model. Kibagata lagoon, which is located in
[year] [mm] [year] [mm]
the southern part of the target area, is defined as a flood
500 177.2 7,000 225.0 control basin. Spatial resolution of a one-dimensional
1,000 189.6 9,000 230.2 river model and two-dimensional flow model is 200 m
1,500 197.0 12,000 235.6 and 40 m, respectively.
2,000 202.3 15,500 240.5 For each rainfall with different return period defined
2,500 206.4 20,000 245.3
in Table 3, a simulation without levee breach was imple-
mented to define cross sections where the maximum water
3,000 209.7 26,000 250.3
level exceeds the planned high water level (HWL). Then,
4,000 215.0 33,500 255.2 inundation simulations were made with levee breach at
5,000 220.9 43,000 260.1 these cross sections. Levee breach was not adopted for the
section more than 8.6 km from the river mouth because it
has little effect on the downstream area. In Fig. 1(a), levee
four probability distribution models was defined as tar- breach sites are marked with a cross. Levee breaches oc-
get rainfall for each return period. The estimated rainfalls cur at a time when the water level in the one-dimensional
are reported in Table 3. The assumed maximum scale model exceeds HWL, and the width of levee breach ex-
rainfall for the Kakehashi River estimated by MLIT is tends from the initial width (25 m) to the final width
350 mm/9-hour. The rainfalls in Table 4 are smaller than (100 m) in one hour. It is also assumed that the levee
the estimation by MLIT, but a return period of the maxi- will be destroyed to its base.
mum rainfall by MLIT could be overlong. Therefore, the
MLIT’s estimation was eliminated in this study.
3.3. Estimation of Economic Losses Due to Flood-
3.2. Runoff Analyses and Inundation Simulations ing
For the runoff analysis, the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Economic loss is one of the important indicators to ex-
(RRI) model developed by the Civil Engineering Re- press the flood disaster risk. In this study, economic losses
search Institute and the International Center for Wa- under different conditions are calculated by considering
ter Hazard and Risk Management [14] was used. Hy- the flooding due to rainfall of various return periods as-
droSHEDS, which is a global hydrological data set, was suming climate change. At the same time, impacts of
used to create topographical data for the RRI model. El- variations in urban structure on economic losses due to
evation, slope direction, and cumulative discharge with a flooding are examined. Such losses are calculated in ac-
spatial resolution of 15 seconds were used to create river cordance with the Flood Control Economic Survey Man-
basin data. The spatial resolution of the generated basin ual (draft) published by MLIT [4]. Economic losses are
data is 500 m. The model watershed and river network are calculated for damages to houses, household goods, de-
shown in Fig. 1(b). preciation and inventory of businesses, and crops. The
Flooding and inundation in low-lying areas in the mid- land use classification of the target area (Fig. 5) was deter-
dle and lower reaches of the Kakehashi River were sim- mined using the land use subdivision mesh published by
ulated using an integrated flood and inundation model MLIT. The calculation of economic loss was carried out

332 Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.3, 2021

 Estimation of Potential Economic Losses Due to Flooding
Considering Variations of Spatial Distribution of Houses and Firms in a City

Table 4. Damage rate for houses (RH ).

Inundation depth
Ground slope Above floor
Below floor
–50 cm 50–99 cm 100–199 cm 200–299 cm 300 cm–
Group A 0.032 0.092 0.119 0.266 0.580 0.834
Group B 0.044 0.126 0.176 0.343 0.647 0.870
Group C 0.050 0.144 0.205 0.382 0.681 0.888
(Ground slope) Group A: –1/1000, Group B: 1/1000–1/500, Group C: 1/500–

Table 4, the elevation and slope mesh data in 2009 pub-

lished by MLIT are used. For the unit value of house
for each prefecture, the evaluation value of Ishikawa Pre-
fecture in 2003 from the Flood Control Economic Survey
Manual (draft) is used.

3.3.2. Economic Loss of Household Goods

To estimate the economic loss of household goods
(LHH ), the asset value of household goods is calculated
for each calculation mesh by multiplying the number
of households (NH ) and the household goods evaluation
value per household (EHH ). Then, the damage rate (RHH )
for each inundation depth (Table 5) is multiplied by the
asset amount of household goods to obtain LHH . The pro-
Fig. 5. Land use around Kakehashi River basin. cedure is expressed by the following formula.
LHH = NH × EHH × RHH . . . . . . . . . (3)
based on the assumption that damage to houses, house- For NH in the target area, the total number of popula-
hold goods, and depreciation and inventory of business es- tion and the total number of households in 2015 published
tablishments would occur in residential/urban areas, and by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Af-
crop damage would occur in agricultural land. It was as- fairs and Communications in Japan is used. In addition,
sumed that inundation on the floor occurs when the inun- for EHH , the evaluation value in 2003 published in the
dation depth is 45 cm or more, and soil accumulation in Flood Control Economic Survey Manual (draft) is used.
houses is not considered. The calculation methods of each
damage amount are described below. 3.3.3. Economic Loss of Depreciation and Inventory
Assets for Business Establishments
3.3.1. Economic Loss of Houses Economic loss of depreciation and inventory asset for
The amount of house assets is calculated by multiply- business establishments is calculated for each industrial
ing the floor area by the evaluation value per 1 m2 . Then, category. Depreciation and inventory assets for each cal-
the economic loss of a house is calculated by multiplying culation mesh is calculated by multiplying the number of
the amount of house assets by the damage rate accord- employees and the unit depreciable and assessment value
ing to the inundation depth (Table 4) for each calculation per employee (1,000 JPY/person) for each industry classi-
mesh of the two-dimensional flood model in the seamless fication. Then, economic loss is estimated by multiplying
model. The amount of economic loss to the house is cal- the damage rate (Table 6) and depreciation and inventory
culated as follows: assets. For the i-th industrial category, the economic loss
is estimated as follows:
LH = AH × EH × RH , . . . . . . . . . . (2)
LD,i = NE,i × ED,i × RD , . . . . . . . . . (4)
where LH , AH , EH , and RH are economic loss of the house
(JPY), floor area in the target mesh (m2 ), the unit value of where LD,i , NE,i , and ED,i are economic loss of depreci-
house for each prefecture (1,000 JPY/m2 ), and the dam- ation and inventory assets (JPY), number of employees,
age ratio of house for each inundation depth, respectively. and the unit depreciable and assessment value per em-
For AH , the total floor area of the building in 2010 accord- ployee for i-th industrial category, respectively. RD is
ing to the Japan Construction Information Center is used. the damage ratio for depreciation and inventory assets.
The spatial resolution of the total floor area data is 100 m. The industrial categories covered herein are mining, con-
For the ground slope data, which is used to estimate RH in struction, manufacturing, electric supply, gas supply, heat

Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.3, 2021 333

Kotone, K. et al.

Table 5. Damage rate for household goods (RHH ).

Inundation depth
Above floor
Below floor
–50 cm 50–99 cm 100–199 cm 200–299 cm 300 cm–
0.021 0.145 0.326 0.508 0.928 0.991

Table 6. Damage rate for depreciation and inventory asset (RD ).

Inundation depth
Asset Above floor
Below floor
–50 cm 50–99 cm 100–199 cm 200–299 cm 300 cm–
Depreciation 0.099 0.232 0.453 0.789 0.966 0.995
Inventory 0.056 0.128 0.267 0.586 0.897 0.982

Table 7. Damage rate for agricultural products (RR , RF ).

Inundation depth
Inundation depth –0.5 m 0.5–0.99 m 1.0 m–
Inundation days 1–2 3–4 5–6 7– 1–2 3–4 5–6 7– 1–2 3–4 5–6 7–
Paddy (RR) 21 30 36 50 24 44 50 71 37 54 64 74
Fields (RF) 27 42 54 67 35 48 67 74 51 67 81 91

supply, water supply, transportation, communications, lated as follows:

wholesale, retail, finance, insurance, real estate, and ser-
LR = AI ×YR × ER × RR , . . . . . . . . . (5)
vice business.
For NE,i in the target area, the number of employees in LF = AI ×YT × ET × RF , . . . . . . . . . (6)
2015 published by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry
where LR , AI , YR , ER , and RR are economic loss of rice
of Internal Affairs and Communications in Japan is used.
paddy (JPY), inundation area (km2 ), rice yield per unit
For ED,i , the values in 2003 published in the Flood Control
area (t/km2 ), unit evaluation value of rice (1,000 JPY/t),
Economic Survey Manual (draft) is used.
and damage rate of the rice paddy, respectively. LF , YT ,
ET , and RF are economic loss of field (JPY), tomato
3.3.4. Economic Loss of Agricultural Products yield per unit area (t/km2 ), unit evaluation value of
tomato (1,000 JPY/t), and damage rate of the field, re-
The economic loss of agricultural products is calculated
spectively.
based on Machida et al. [17]. For rice paddies, the dam-
Average annual yield and the unit evaluation value of
age amount is calculated by multiplying the rice yield per
Ishikawa Prefecture in 2003 was used for estimation. This
unit area by the unit evaluation value of rice and the in-
information is published in the Flood Control Economic
undation area. Then, the damage ratio calculated by inun-
Survey Manual (draft).
dation depth and inundation days is multiplied to estimate
the economic loss of rice paddy. The damage ratios for
agricultural products calculated by inundation depth and
3.4. Simulation of Urban Structure Using CUE
inundation days are reported in Table 7. In calculation of
the damage ratio, inundation days was set to one because Model
the simulated flood inundation was resolved in about one Variations of the urban structure around the lower reach
day in this study. of the Kakehashi River basin were simulated using CUE
Economic loss of fields for other agricultural crops is model.
calculated based on tomatoes because the average value Fujita and Ogawa [18] developed an urban spatial
of the major agricultural products is close to that of toma- equilibrium model considering interactions between firms
toes. As with rice paddies, the economic loss is calculated and households and explain the endogenous formation
by multiplying the yield per unit area by the unit evalua- of polycentric urban spatial structures. Nakamura and
tion value of tomatoes and the inundation area. Then, the Takayama [19] developed a CUE model based on Fujita
damage ratio (Table 7) is multiplied to estimate the eco- and Ogawa [18] to examine the stability of spatial equi-
nomic loss of fields. libria and clarified that polycentric urban structures can
Economic losses for rice paddies and fields are calcu- emerge. In the current study, the CUE model by

334 Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.3, 2021

 Estimation of Potential Economic Losses Due to Flooding
Considering Variations of Spatial Distribution of Houses and Firms in a City

Nakamura and Takayama [19] was used to simulate the ferent cross sections, and three patterns of rainfall shown
urban structures. in Figs. 3 and 4. Based on the composite of the maxi-
In this study, a city consists of discrete locations mum inundation depth, the economic losses due to flood-
ing were calculated by the method described in the previ-
J = {1, 2, . . ., I}. . . . . . . . . . . . . (7)
ous section for each return period (Fig. 7).
Each location a ∈ J is endowed with Aa , units of a The economic losses in the case of a return period of
fixed supply of land, and the distance between the lo- 1,000 years was the shallowest in all cases because the
cations a and b is dab . There are households and firms inundation depth was the shallowest, and most of eco-
in a city. The total number of households in the city nomic losses are less than 100,000 yen. The meshes in
is N, and the number of households residing in location which the economic loss is less than 100,000 yen are
a and working at location i, “households ai,” is denoted farmland, and the damage is mainly due to crop dam-
as nai . The total number of households residing at loca- age. The total damage is about 7.2 billion yen in the
tion a is Na = ∑i∈J nai . The number of firms in location i case of 1,000 years rainfall. According to MLIT, in the
is Mi = ∑a∈J nai Each firm requires sF units of land and case of Typhoon No.10, which caused disasters in a wide
one unit of labor to operate. The profit of a firm choosing area around Iwate Prefecture in 2016, the economic losses
location i is given by in Iwate Prefecture and Hokkaido were 168 billion yen
and 165 billion yen, respectively. In addition, the eco-
πi = α F Fi (M
M ) + ηi − wi − ri sF , . . . . . . (8) nomic loss of the Kinugawa heavy rainfall event in 2015
where α F Fi (M
M ) + ηi is the level of production, Fi (MM) = was 159 billion yen. Since the Kakehashi River is one of
Ai −1 ∑ j∈J exp(−τ di j )M j /A j represents production exter- the smallest first-class rivers in Japan and the target area
nalities, ηi denotes the production fundamentals, wi is in this study is relatively small, the order of the estimated
wage, and ri is land rent in location i. The functional economic loss seems appropriate. In the case of a re-
form of Fi (M
M ) reflects the assumption that firms produce turn period of 2,000 years, the economic loss in the entire
more goods when they are close to other firms. Each basin was larger than that in the case of 1,000 years, and
household consumes sH units of land inelastically for res- the maximum damage amount per mesh was also large. In
idential purposes. The utility uai of a household ai is addition to meshes with damages of 100,000 yen or less,
uai = wi − sH ra − tdai + ηa where t is the commuting cost meshes with damages of 10,000,000 yen or less are in-
for a unit distance and ηa denotes residential amenities. creasing. Economic losses expand across a wider area as
With regard to utility maximization, profit maximiza- the return period becomes longer. On the other hand, the
tion, and market clearing, the utility is expressed as economic loss in each mesh hardly changes even when
the return period become longer. As shown in Fig. 6, the
uai (n) = α F Fi (M
M ) + ηa + ηi − tdai longer the return period, the larger the inundation depth
sH Na + sF Ma sH Ni + sF Mi tends to be. However, because variations of damage rate
−2β sH − 2 β sF . (9) according to inundation depth are not so large for agricul-
Aa Ai
tural products (Table 7), once crops have already been lost
The spatial equilibrium condition is as follows: with smaller flood, additional losses are small even if the
  inundation depth increases. On the other hand, for gen-
exp θ uai (n)
nai =  N. . . . . . . (10) eral households and business establishments, the damage
Aa ∑ ∑ exp θ uai (n) rate significantly changes depending on the inundation
a∈I i∈I
depth (Tables 4, 5, and 6); hence, the amount of damage
Here, θ is a scale parameter. in the mesh increases as the inundation depth increases
Parameters in the CUE model were estimated using the with longer return period. Since there are many areas of
method in Ahlfeldt et al. [20]. In the estimation of param- farmland around the Kakehashi River, the increase of eco-
eters, existence of inundation and inundation depth are in- nomic loss due to the increase of inundation depth is not
troduced to consider variations of inundation conditions. so large.
At the same time, an additional burden of insurance pre-
mium depending on inundation depth is also introduced 4.2. Expected Value of Economic Losses Due to
in the CUE model.
Flooding
The expected value of economic loss due to flooding
4. Estimated Economic Losses from Flooding is calculated by two methods using the economic loss
amount for each return period obtained in the previous
4.1. Economic Losses Caused by Rainfall of Multi- section. The two calculation methods and results are
ple Return Periods shown below.

Figure 6 shows a part of the spatial distribution of the 4.2.1. A Method Using Cumulative Probability of Tar-
maximum inundation depth for each return period by in- get Rainfalls
undation simulations. Each result is a composite of the Based on the occurrence frequency of the maximum
maximum inundation depth with levee breach at five dif- 9-hour rainfall in the ensemble numerical meteorologi-

Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.3, 2021 335

Kotone, K. et al.

Fig. 6. Composite of the maximum inundation depth (m) for each return period.

Fig. 7. Flood economic losses (1,000 JPY) for each return period.

cal simulation, which is the basis of runoff analysis and period. Then, the expected value of flood economic loss
inundation simulation, the weight of economic loss is cal- is calculated by adding up the results of all return periods.
culated from the cumulative probability of each 9-hour The cumulative probability and weight W1 for each return
rainfall. The weight is calculated by subtracting the cu- period are reported in Table 8.
mulative probability of each return period from 1.0. The
weight is multiplied by the economic loss for each return

336 Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.3, 2021

 Estimation of Potential Economic Losses Due to Flooding
Considering Variations of Spatial Distribution of Houses and Firms in a City

Table 8. Weights and probabilities used to calculate expected value of economic losses due to flooding.

Return period 9-hour rainfall Cumulative Weight W 1 Probability P i

Weight W 2
[year] [mm] probability ϕ = 1 − ϕ)
(= ×1 0 −4 )
(×
1,000 189.6 0.907 0.0925 90.0 1.0384
1,500 197.0 0.912 0.0681 3.333 0.0385
2,000 202.3 0.946 0.0541 1.667 0.0192
2,500 206.4 0.955 0.0449 1.000 0.0115
3,000 209.7 0.961 0.0382 0.667 0.0077
4,000 215.0 0.971 0.0294 0.883 0.0096
5,500 220.9 0.978 0.0217 0.682 0.0079
7,000 225.5 0.983 0.0170 0.390 0.0045
9,000 230.2 0.987 0.0130 0.317 0.0037
12,000 235.6 0.991 0.0095 0.278 0.0032
15,500 240.5 0.993 0.0070 0.188 0.0022
20,000 245.3 0.995 0.0052 0.145 0.0017
26,500 250.3 0.996 0.0038 0.115 0.0013
33,500 255.2 0.997 0.0027 0.086 0.0010
43,000 260.1 0.998 0.0019 0.066 0.0008

4.2.2. A Method Using Occurrence Probability of Tar- tant, but we focus on the differences of the spatial distri-
get Rainfalls bution of the expected value between the two methods.
In another method, expected value was calculated by When the weight W2 is used, the expected value is less
weight W2 based on interval probability pi . The interval than 5 million yen in most meshes. In addition, there is an
probability pi for the rainfall with the return period of yi area around the central part of the target area (indicated
is defined as the occurrence probability for the interval by a white circle in Fig. 8) where the damage amount is
between yi−1 and yi and calculated as the following equa- about 10 to 50 million yen. On the other hand, when the
tion. weight W1 is used, there are more meshes with a damage
amount of 5 to 10 million yen, and the expected value of
1 1
pi = − . . . . . . . . . . . . . (11) damage amount is decreasing on the left bank of the mid-
yi−1 yi stream part. As seen in Fig. 6, in the area on the left bank
Then, the expected value of the economic loss is esti- of the Kakehashi River, inundation occurred even during
mated with the economic loss of each mesh for each re- rainfall with a smaller return period. In such areas, the
turn period. For the shortest return period in Table 8 (i.e., expected value of the economic loss becomes large when
1,000 years), the interval probability between 100 years, the weight W2 was used. In areas where flooding occurs
which is the target of flood control plan in the Kakehashi only due to rainfall with a long return period, the expected
River basin, and 1,000 years was given. To compare with value tends to be smaller. Therefore, the spatial distribu-
the method using the weight W1 based on the cumulative tion of the expected value becomes inhomogeneous. On
probability (described in Section 4.2.1), the weight W2 the other hand, when the weight W1 is used, the total
was determined by multiplying the interval probability pi amount of damage is smoothed and relatively homoge-
by a constant K so that the total expected value of eco- neous over the entire area compared to the case using W2 ;
nomic loss by the two methods becomes the same value. hence, the spatial difference in the risk of economic loss
within the target area is reduced.
To select areas for implementing additional flood disas-
4.2.3. Comparison of the Expected Values of Eco- ter prevention measures, an evaluation method using W2 ,
nomic Losses Due to Flooding Using the Two which sharpens the difference in risk, may be appropri-
Methods ate. However, as previously mentioned, the effect of rain-
fall with a large return period tends to be underestimated
Figure 8 shows the spatial distribution of the expected when using W2 . To consider risks of rare heavy rainfall
values of the economic loss from flooding calculated by events, the method using W1 seems better. In the future,
the aforementioned methods. In both results, the total it will be essential to make a detailed comparison of such
expected value of flood damage in the target area was methods and to examine how to use them.
approximately 10.7 billion yen. Since the weights W1
and W2 give the contribution rate of each return period
and have little physical or socioeconomic meaning, quan-
titative evaluation of the expected value is not so impor-

Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.3, 2021 337

Kotone, K. et al.

Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of expectation of flood economic

loss. (a) Result based on cumulative probability (W1 ), (b) re-
sult based on occurrence probability (W2 ). Fig. 9. (a) Inundation depth (m) under the condition of
the possible maximum rainfall, (b) variation of numbers of
households (%) under the higher inundation risk estimated
using the CUE model, (c) same as (b) but for companies.
5. Impacts of Variations in Urban Structure on
Economic Losses Due to Flooding
5.1. Variation of Urban Structure Caused by Up-
in the economic loss due to flooding under the different
dated Flood Risk Information and its Impact
urban structure is investigated. Here, the changes in the
on Economic Loss number of households and companies at each area are ex-
To consider the impact of larger flood hazard on urban amined. Specifically, this study focuses on the growth rate
structure, it is assumed that the possible maximum rain- of households and companies at each location.
fall (defined by MLIT) occurs at the same frequency as Figure 9(a) shows the inundation depth at the assumed
the design rainfall in the present climate. Under the con- maximum scale rainfall. The results obtained by the CUE
dition of the possible maximum rainfall, inundation area model are presented in Figs. 9(b) and (c). From this re-
and depth increase and the amenity and productivity in sult, it can be seen that the number of both households
the target area decline. As a result, relocation of residence and companies tends to decrease at the location where
and work location occurs in that area. In this section, the the inundation depth is greater than 3 m. This is be-
variations in urban structure under the different flood risk cause the amenity level and productivity of these areas
is simulated using the CUE model. Then, the variations are relatively lower than those of other areas. In other ar-

338 Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.3, 2021

 Estimation of Potential Economic Losses Due to Flooding
Considering Variations of Spatial Distribution of Houses and Firms in a City

eas with the inundation depth smaller than 3 m, the num-

bers of households or companies increase, and rent will
rise. In such case, households and companies can move
to a location with high convenience (e.g., high amenity
and productivity levels) or lower land rent even if there
is a high risk of inundation. However, the complexity of
the CUE model gives different tendencies in variations of
number of households and companies. In area I, inunda-
tion depth is quite small, and many companies moved to
the area. Then, the rent becomes higher and houses de-
crease in area I. In areas II and IV, the inundation depth is
greater than 3 m, but the variations from the original inun-
dation depth under the present design level are small (re-
sults are not shown), or the inundation risks did not vary
significantly. At the same time, the companies increased
in areas I and III. Then, the number of houses in areas II
and IV increased due to residents commuting to areas I
and III. For area II, lowering the rent caused by relocation
of companies could also accelerate the increase in houses.
Figure 10 shows the difference in economic losses be-
tween the original and the altered urban structures under
the more serious flood condition. Here, results for two dif-
ferent return periods are shown. Positive values indicate
that the flood damage amount increased with the change
of urban structure. The total damage amount in the tar-
get area is decreasing in the results for both return peri-
ods. Results for all return periods revealed that the total
economic loss in the altered urban structure is 14–23%
smaller than that of the original urban structure. The eco-
nomic loss decreases on both sides of the Kakehashi River
in the middle reach (area A in Fig. 10) but increases on the
left bank on the downstream side (area B in Fig. 10). The
region with decreasing economic damage due to flooding
is where the number of houses and companies are decreas-
ing (Fig. 9). On the other hand, the numbers of house-
holds and companies are increasing in the area where the
flood damage amount is increasing, and the economic loss
becomes larger when flooding occurs in such areas.
As shown in Fig. 9, changes in flood disaster risk sug-
gest that companies and households may move to safer
areas, reducing flood damage in the entire basin. How-
ever, if the possibility of inundation at the relocation site Fig. 10. Variations in flood economic loss under the con-
is not zero, the amount of flood damage at the relocation dition of different flood risk (mil. JPY). (a) Result for the
site will increase. In candidate areas of relocation, addi- return period of 2,500 years, (b) result for the return period
tional measures such as enhanced drainage systems and of 33,500 years.
raising residential land would be necessary to reduce the
economic losses even the case of increasing number of
households and companies.
defined as the expected value of the maximum inunda-
tion depth calculated for multiple return periods and the
5.2. Variation of Urban Structure Caused by Ad-
weight of each rainfall (here, W1 in Table 8 was used).
ditional Insurance Burden and its Impact on The insurance premium for each location set by the above
Economic Loss method is as shown in Fig. 11(a).
The flood disaster risk is calculated using results of in- In this study, it is assumed that the flood insurance pre-
undation simulation for multiple return periods, and the miums are paid only by the household. Fig. 11(b) shows
insurance premium is set according to the flood risk for the growth rate of households when only households are
each area. The effect of insurance premiums to guide insured. The number of households has decreased at the
households and companies to locations with low water location where insurance premiums are paid. In addi-
disaster risk is investigated. The insurance premium is tion, the employment place changes because the com-

Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.3, 2021 339

Kotone, K. et al.

Fig. 11. (a) Flood insurance premium for each location,

(b) variation of numbers of households (%) with additional
insurance burden estimated using the CUE model, (c) same
as (b) but for companies.
Fig. 12. Variations in flood economic loss (mil. JPY) under
the condition of additional flood insurance burden. (a) Result
for the return period of 2,500 years, (b) result for the return
muting cost changes as the place of residence changes period of 33,500 years.
(Fig. 11(b)). As a result, the number of companies also
decreases at the location where insurance premiums are
set (Fig. 11(c)). However, in some locations where the
decreasing ratio of companies is large, the rent also de- due to flooding increased in almost all meshes. However,
creases, and households increase despite insurance pre- the range of the change in economic loss in each mesh
miums being set. is smaller than the results in Fig. 10 (see the legend of
Figure 12 shows the difference in total economic loss Figs. 10 and 12). As seen in Fig. 11, the number of houses
between the original and the altered urban structure un- decreased due to the burden of insurance premiums in ar-
der the insurance burden imposed on households. Here, eas with a high risk of flooding, such as the Kakehashi
the results for two return periods are shown. The total main river, and the number of companies has increased.
economic loss in the target area increased in both results. The decrease in rent due to the decrease in the number of
For 15 return periods, the total economic loss increased households is considered to be one of the reasons for the
(results are not shown). In addition, the economic loss company relocation, but detailed consideration is needed

340 Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.3, 2021

 Estimation of Potential Economic Losses Due to Flooding
Considering Variations of Spatial Distribution of Houses and Firms in a City

in the future. In addition, in Fig. 12, the mesh with in- Acknowledgements
creasing flood economic loss coincides with the region This study was conducted with the support of the Ministry
where companies are increasing, and it is thought that the of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan, and
concentration of companies is the cause of the increase Hokuriku Regional Management Service Association. The au-
in the economic loss. On the other hand, the change in thors are also grateful to all of the data providers. The NCEP
the number of houses and companies was small when the FNL Operational Global Analysis data are available at the Re-
insurance premium was charged. The effect of the flood search Data Archive at the University Corporation for Atmo-
spheric Research (UCAR). The NOAA OI SST products obtained
insurance was small on relocation from higher risk areas
from NCEP at NOAA. The CMIP5 products are distributed from
to safer areas. In the future, it is necessary to consider several CMIP5 data portals.
effective insurance premiums to promote relocation from
high-risk areas.
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Vol.83, No.6, pp. 2127-2189, 2015. Address:
2-216 Izumihonmachi, Kanazawa, Ishikawa 921-8042, Japan
Brief Career:
2019- Nihonkai Consultant Co., Ltd.
Selected Publications:
• K. Nakamura and Y. Takayama, “Development of an agglomeration
Name: model considering interactions between firm and households,” J. of Japan
Kaito Kotone Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3, Vol.74, No.5, pp. I 555-I 569, 2018
(in Japanese).
Affiliation:
Master Course Student, Division of Environmen-
tal Design, Kanazawa University

Name:
Yuki Takayama

Address: Affiliation:
Kakuma-Machi, Kanazawa, Ishikawa 920-1192, Japan Associate Professor, Institute of Science and En-
Brief Career: gineering, Kanazawa University
2019- Master Course Student, Kanazawa University
Selected Publications:
• K. Kotone and K. Taniguchi,“Evaluation of Economic Loss from
Flooding by Considering Future Depopulation and Variations in Urban
Structure,” J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1, Vol.76, No.2,
Address:
pp. I 517-I 522, 2020 (in Japanese).
Kakuma-machi, Kanazawa, Ishikawa 920-1192, Japan
Academic Societies & Scientific Organizations:
Brief Career:
• Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE)
2005- West Japan Railway Company
2011- Ehime University
2014- Tohoku University
2016- Kanazawa University
Selected Publications:
Name: • Y. Takayama, K. Ikeda and J.-F. Thisse, “Stability and sustainability of
Kenji Taniguchi urban systems under commuting and transportation costs,” Regional
Science and Urban Economics, Vol.84, 103553, 2020.
Affiliation: • Y. Takayama and M. Kuwahara, “Bottleneck congestion and residential
Associate Professor, Faculty of Geosciences and location of heterogeneous commuters,” J. of Urban Economics, Vol.100,
Civil Engineering, Kanazawa University pp. 65-79, 2017.
• Y. Takayama, “Bottleneck congestion and distribution of work start
times: The economics of staggered work hours revisited,” Transportation
Research Part B: Methodological, Vol.81, No.3, pp. 830-847, 2015.
Academic Societies & Scientific Organizations:
• Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE)
Address: • Applied Regional Science Conference (ARSC)
Kakuma-Machi, Kanazawa, Ishikawa 920-1192, Japan
Brief Career:
2005- The University of Tokyo
2008- Kanazawa University
Selected Publications:
• K. Taniguchi, “A Simple Ensemble Simulation Technique for
Assessment of Future Variations in Specific High-Impact Weather Events,”
J. of Geophys. Res: Atmosphere, Vol.123, No.7, pp. 3443-3461, 2018.
• K. Taniguchi and Y. Tajima, “Variations in Extreme Wave Events near a
South Pacific island under Global Warming: Case study of Tropical
Cyclone Tomas,” Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, Article No.8,
doi: 10.1186/s40645-020-0321-y, 2020.
Academic Societies & Scientific Organizations:
• Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE)
• Meteorological Society of Japan (MSJ)
• Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR)
• American Geophysical Union (AGU)

342 Journal of Disaster Research Vol.16 No.3, 2021

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