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Professional Practice in Earth Sciences

Dilber Uzun Ozsahin

Hüseyin Gökçekuş
Berna Uzun
James LaMoreaux Editors

Application
of Multi-Criteria
Decision Analysis in
Environmental and
Civil Engineering
Professional Practice in Earth Sciences

Series Editor
James W. LaMoreaux, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA
Books in Springer’s Professional Practice in Earth Sciences Series present
state-of-the-art guidelines to be applied in multiple disciplines of the earth system
sciences. The series portfolio contains practical training guidebooks and supporting
material for academic courses, laboratory manuals, work procedures and protocols
for environmental sciences and engineering. Items published in the series are
directed at researchers, students, and anyone interested in the practical application
of science. Books in the series cover the applied components of selected fields in
the earth sciences and enable practitioners to better plan, optimize and interpret their
results. The series is subdivided into the different fields of applied earth system
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protocols and training guidebooks.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11926

Dilber Uzun Ozsahin Hüseyin Gökçekuş
• •

Berna Uzun James LaMoreaux

•

Editors

Application of Multi-Criteria
Decision Analysis
in Environmental and Civil
Engineering

123
Editors
Dilber Uzun Ozsahin Hüseyin Gökçekuş
DESAM Institute Faculty of Civil and Environmental
Near East University Engineering
Nicosia, Turkish Republic of Northern Near East University
Cyprus, Turkey Nicosia, Turkish Republic of Northern
Cyprus, Turkey
Department of Biomedical Engineering
Near East University
James LaMoreaux
Nicosia, Turkish Republic of Northern
P. E. LaMoreaux & Associates, Inc.
Cyprus, Turkey
Tuscaloosa, AL, USA
Medical Diagnostic Imaging Department
College of Health Science
University of Sharjah
Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

Berna Uzun
DESAM Institute
Near East University
Nicosia, Turkish Republic of Northern
Cyprus, Turkey
Department of Mathematics
Near East University
Nicosia, Turkish Republic of Northern
Cyprus, Turkey

ISSN 2364-0073 ISSN 2364-0081 (electronic)

Professional Practice in Earth Sciences
ISBN 978-3-030-64764-3 ISBN 978-3-030-64765-0 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64765-0
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature
Switzerland AG 2021
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether
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The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
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The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
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to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Contents

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Dilber Uzun Ozsahin, Berna Uzun, Aizhan Syidanova,
and Mubarak Taiwo Mustapha
2 Theoretical Aspects of Multi-criteria Decision-Making (MCDM)
Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Berna Uzun, Dilber Uzun Ozsahin, and Basil Duwa
3 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Dilber Uzun Ozsahin, Mennatullah Ahmed, and Berna Uzun
4 The Technique For Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal
Solution (TOPSIS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Berna Uzun, Mustapha Taiwo, Aizhan Syidanova,
and Dilber Uzun Ozsahin
5 ELimination Et Choix Traduisant La REalité (ELECTRE) . . . . . . 31
Berna Uzun, Rwiyereka Angelique Bwiza, and Dilber Uzun Ozsahin
6 Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment
Evaluation (Promethee) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Berna Uzun, Abdullah Almasri, and Dilber Uzun Ozsahin
7 Vlse Criterion Optimization and Compromise Solution
in Serbian (VIKOR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Berna Uzun and Dilber Uzun Ozsahin
8 Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Based Multi Criteria Decision
Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Berna Uzun, Dilber Uzun Ozsahin, and Basil Duwa
9 Predict Future Climate Change Using Artificial Neural
Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Hamit Altıparmak, Ramiz Salama, Hüseyin Gökçekuş,
and Dilber Uzun Ozsahin

v
vi Contents

10 Superior Types of Bamboo as a Construction Material

with MCDM Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Aizhan Syidanova, Huseyin Gokcekus, and Dilber Uzun Ozsahin
11 Ranking of Natural Wastewater Treatment Techniques
by Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Methods . . . . . . . . . . 87
Tagesse Gichamo, Hüseyin Gökçekuş, Dilber Uzun Ozsahin,
Gebre Gelete, and Berna Uzun
12 Evaluating Disinfection Techniques of Water Treatment
Using Multi-criteria Decision-Making Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Gebre Gelete, Hüseyin Gökçekuş, Berna Uzun, Dilber Uzun Ozsahin,
and Tagesse Gichamo
13 Evaluation of the Learning Models Using Multi-criteria Decision
Making Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Gülsüm Aşıksoy, Berna Uzun, and Dilber Uzun Ozsahin
14 The Most Common Factors Effecting Ground Water Quality . . . . . 127
Maram Al Muhisen, Hüseyin Gökçekuş, and Dilber Uzun Ozsahin
15 Selecting the Best Public–Private Partnership Contract
by Using the Fuzzy Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
Maram Almuhisen, Huseyin Gökçekuş, Berna Uzun,
and Dilber Uzun Ozsahin
16 Comparative Analysis for Irrigation Water Application Methods
Using TOPSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
Mukhtar Nuhu Yahya, Ibrahim Muntaqa Tijjani Usman,
Hüseyin Gökçekuş, Dilber Uzun Ozsahin, and Berna Uzun
17 Comparative Analysis of Flexible Pavement Design Methods
Using Fuzzy PROMETHEE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
Ibrahim Khalil Umar, Hüseyin Gökçekuş, and Dilber Uzun Ozsahinş
18 Using Clustering of Panel Data to Examine Housing Demand
of Expatriate Turks and Foreigners: An Application
of k-prototype Algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Özlem Akay, Cahit Çelik, and Gülsen Kıral
19 Evaluation and Optimization of the Treatment Scheme
for the Paint Industry Effluents Using Multi-criteria
Decision Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
Seval Sözen, Seyda Duba, Dilber Uzun Ozsahin, Fidan Aslanova,
Hüseyin Gökçekuş, and Derin Orhon
Chapter 1
Introduction

Dilber Uzun Ozsahin, Berna Uzun, Aizhan Syidanova,

and Mubarak Taiwo Mustapha

Abstract The application of Multi criteria decision making (MCDM) has sprung
many facet of life. Its application in the field of civil engineering and environmental
studies owe to fact that decision-makers in these fields are always in dilemma when
confronted with challenges involving multiple criteria. In civil engineering, decision-
making is critical to the success of any project. Any wrong decision can be detrimental
not only to people’s life but to the cost and quality of time spent on a project.
Civil engineers are usually confronted with alternatives whenever a project is to be
executed. This alternatives include the type, length and strength of a material to
be used or its longevity. Similar alternatives are peculiar to environmental studies.
Climate change has become the most debatable topic since the peak of industrial
revolution. Greenhouse gasses (carbon-dioxide (CO2), water vapor and methane) has
been emitted in an uncontrollable manner resulting in the damage of the protective
ozone layer. This has led to a far reaching consequences such as drought, heat waves,

D. Uzun Ozsahin · B. Uzun (B)

DESAM Institute, Near East University, Nicosia, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Turkey
e-mail: [email protected]
D. Uzun Ozsahin
e-mail: [email protected]
D. Uzun Ozsahin · M. T. Mustapha
Department of Biomedical Engineering, Near East University, Nicosia, Turkish Republic of
Northern Cyprus, Turkey
e-mail: [email protected]
D. Uzun Ozsahin
Medical Diagnostic Imaging Department, College of Health Science, University of Sharjah,
Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
B. Uzun
Department of Mathematics, Near East University, Nicosia, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,
Turkey
A. Syidanova
Department of Architecture, Near East University, Nicosia, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,
Turkey
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 1

D. Uzun Ozsahin et al. (eds.), Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in
Environmental and Civil Engineering, Professional Practice in Earth Sciences,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64765-0_1
2 D. Uzun Ozsahin et al.

shrinking of the glacier ice, bush burning, deforestation etc. To provide a solution to
these, several environmental friendly alternative needs to be consider.

Keywords Multi criteria decision making · Fuzzy logic · Environmental science

Multi-criteria decision-making analysis uses mathematical simulation tool to eval-

uate and compare conflicting alternatives based on multiple criteria. This result in
ranking of alternatives from the most preferred to the least preferred. Asides criteria,
weight and preference function are considered. In this textbook, the most popular
and frequently used MCDM tools will be discussed and used. These are Analytic
Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal
Solution (TOPSIS), Elimination Et Choix Traduisant la Realite (ELECTRE), Prefer-
ence Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) and
Vise Criterion Optimization and Compromise Solution in Serbian (VIKOR). Fuzzy
logic and fuzzy based MCDM will also be elaborated on.
Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) has become a fairly well-known sector
of the Operational Research/Management Science discipline; indeed, in recent years,
numerous other methodologies and paradigms have been created in this area, with
increasing use every day to a rather different type of problem scenarios.
MCDM methods have every chance of providing tools for difficult planning exer-
cises, in terms of structuring values, weighing and choosing other possibilities, and
distributing resources between competing for work styles. These methods still can
take into account in contexts in which a certain number of interested stakeholders
are involved, which in fact has the potential to lead to conflict situations. The use of
MCDM techniques has flourished in every scientific field. Taking into account the
distribution of these layouts and their variants, it is important to have an absolute
awareness of their comparative value and ease of use in all kinds of contexts. As such,
this special issue has a collection of methodological and applied cases that provide
important merit in the field of making Multi-Criteria Decision-Making.
MCDM and MODM (Multi Objective Decision Making) it is two fundamental
techniques of MCDM. The tasks of MCDM differ from the complication of MODM,
which include producing the “leading” alternative by considering mutual concessions
within a set of interacting design limitations. The MCDM method selects some areas
of action if there are several, as a rule, incompatible attributes.
MCDM is an exceptionally famous branch of decision-making. This is
a branch of a joint class of models for the study of operations that find solution of the
troubles of a conclusion in the presence of a number of criteria for making a conclu-
sion. The MCDM alignment urges that choice be made between the conclusions
described by their attributes. It is expected, in fact, that the difficulties of MCDM
have in advance a concrete, limited number of other conclusions. Conclusion of
difficulty MCDM incorporates sorting and ranking.
In the MODM approach, contrary to the MCDM approach, the decision alter-
natives are not given. Instead, MODM provides a mathematical framework for
designing a set of decision alternatives. Each alternative, once identified, is judged by
1 Introduction 3

how close it satisfies an objective or multiple objectives. In the MODM approach, the
number of potential decision alternatives may be large. Solving a MODM problem
involves selection.
The MODM approach differs from the MCDM approach in that no different
solutions are provided. MODM demonstrates the mathematical basis for developing
other conclusions. Any candidacy, once concrete, is evaluated by how close it meets
the goal or a huge number of goals. In the MODM scenario, the number of probable
other conclusions has the potential to be tremendous. Conclusion MODM difficulties
imply choice.
It is widely recognized that the bulk of the conclusions adopted in the real world
are accepted in an environment in which goals and limits due to their difficulties
are not literally popular, and thus the problem does not have the ability to be liter-
ally defined or literally presented in exact form. Zadeh (1965) proposed using the
concept of fuzzy sets as a modelling tool for difficult systems that have every chance
of being controlled by people, but which are difficult to literally qualify to deal with
high-quality, inaccurate information or even poorly structured conclusion problems
(Bellman and Zadeh 1970).
Fuzzy logic is a section of arithmetic that allows programs on a computer to
simulate the real world, the same world people live in. This is a simple method to
reason with uncertain, diverse and inaccurate data or knowledge. In Boolean logic,
any statement is considered true or false; that is, it contains the true meaning of 1 or 0.
Numerous Booleans impose strict membership requests. Vague large numbers have
more flexible membership requests that allow selective membership in the kit. Every-
thing depends on the degree, and clear reasoning is considered as a limiting case of
indicative thinking. Therefore, Boolean logic is considered a subset of fuzzy logic.
People take part in the analysis of conclusions because the adoption of conclusions
must take into account the subjectivity of a person, and not only apply impartial
probabilistic measures. This prepares the adoption of fuzzy conclusions important.
(Kahraman 2008).
The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)
is a technique that seeks to find the closest possible solution to the positive ideal solu-
tion (PIS) in a multi-criteria decision environment. It has many benefits. It’s easy to
use and organized. It has been used in supply chain management, logistics, construc-
tion, engineering and manufacturing systems, business and marketing successfully
(Balioti et al. 2018).
From the Serbian language, VIsekriterijumska optimizcija i KOmpromisno
Resenje (VIKOR) is a way of finding a compromise ranking created by Serafim
Oprikovic. VIKOR is a method that determines the superior value in comparing two
alternatives for a final set of other actions that must be ranked and selected between the
criteria, and resolves a discrete multicriteria problem with disparate and conflicting
aspects. VIKOR pays more attention to demanding and choosing one of the best from
the set of variables and determines compromise difficulties with conflicting aspects
that can help decision makers to show the final verdict. A compromise conclusion
is the final conclusion among the alternatives, closer to impeccable (Lee and Yang
2017).
4 D. Uzun Ozsahin et al.

The VIKOR and TOPSIS methods are based on distance calculation, but the
compromise conclusion in VIKOR is guided by mutual concessions, while in TOPSIS
the best conclusion is guided by the minimum distance from PIS and the farthest
distance from NIS (negative ideal solution). PIS is considered to be a type that
consists of the best ratings between all considered criteria or attributes. On the other
hand, NIS is considered a candidate that contain the worst ratings between all the
criteria considered (Lee and Yang 2017).
The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed by Saati in 1980. AHP is
an additive weighting method. It has been reviewed and used in many fields, and its
implementation is maintained by several commercially available, user-friendly soft-
ware packages. It is generally difficult for people who accept conclusions to literally
qualify weights of total importance for a set of characteristics at the same time. As
the number of characters’ increases, the best results are obtained when the problem
is transformed into one of a series of matched analogs. AHP formalizes a change
in the difficulty of weighting characteristics into a more manageable problem of
making a series of pairwise comparison between competing characters. AHP summa-
rizes the results of matched analogs in the “matrix of paired comparisons”. For
any pair of attributes, the person accepting the conclusion reveals the outcome
of”How much more important is one species (example) than another.” Any pairwise
comparison urgently asks the person to accept the conclusion to answer the ques-
tion: “How much characteristic A can be more important, than characteristic B, of a
comparatively common goal?” (Kahraman 2008).
ELimination Et Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) is another MCDM
technique. The fundamental concept of the ELECTRE method is how to over-
come with a leading relationship, using paired comparisons between candidates for
any aspect individually. Differences in the two or many choices, significant as Aiĺ Aj,
indicate that the 2 candidates i and j do not mathematically prevail over each other,
the person accepting the conclusion perceives the risk of considering Ai as better than
Aj. A candidacy is considered to be dominant if another candidacy overtakes it, at
least in 1 aspect, and is equated in the remaining aspects. The ELECTRE method of
application is a pairwise comparison of choice based on the degree to which the eval-
uation of alternatives and the authority of preference recognizes or contradict pair
matching with the presence of a predominance between candidates. The decision-
maker has the opportunity to say, in fact, that he/she has a strong, weak or indifferent
predilection, or even has the ability to be unable to express his preference between
the 2 compared candidates (Kahraman 2008).
In comparison to other MCDM methods, PROMETHEE is an efficient technique
that provides more preference functions to decision makers for creating the priority
to alternatives based on each criteria. The advantages of PROMETHEE include
that it is a user-friendly method that can be perfectly applied to real-life problem
structures. Both PROMETHEE I and II as whole enable the ranking of the alternatives
respectively, while still providing simplicity (Ozsahin et al. 2019).
The PROMETHEE II method arranges objects from the best (more precisely, from
the most preferred) to the worst (to the least preferred). To do this, the differences,
Phi = Phi – Phi −, are calculated for each object and then ordered in descending
1 Introduction 5

order. In other words, the ranks of the objects are constructed following the rule:
where largest value of F is set to a rank equal to 1. As a result, each object receives
a rank. The most preferred objects have higher Phi value . In other words, the ranks
can be considered as numbers showing ranking of the objects from best to worst
(Ozsahin et al. 2019).

References

Balioti V, Tzimopoulos C, Evangelides C (2018) Multi-criteria decision making using TOPSIS

method under fuzzy environment. Appl Spillway Select Proc 2(11):637. https://doi.org/10.3390/
proceedings2110637
Bellman RE, Zadeh LA (1970) Decision making in a fuzzy environment. Manag Sci 17:141–164
Kahraman C (2008) Multi-criteria decision making methods and fuzzy sets. Springer Optim Its Appl
Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making pp 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-76813-7_1
Lee PT, Yang Z (2017) Multi-criteria decision making in maritime studies and logistics: applications
and cases. Springer International Publishing, Cham
Ozsahin DU et al (2019) Evaluation and simulation of colon cancer treatment techniques with
fuzzy PROMETHEE. In: 2019 Advances in science and engineering technology international
conferences (ASET) 2019. https://doi.org/10.1109/icaset.2019.8714509
Ozsahin I, Sharif T, Ozsahin DU, Uzun B (2019) Evaluation of solid-state detectors in medical
imaging with fuzzy PROMETHEE. J Instrum 14(01). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-0221/14/01/
c01019
Zadeh LA (1965) Fuzzy sets. Inf Control 8:338–353
Chapter 2
Theoretical Aspects of Multi-criteria
Decision-Making (MCDM) Methods

Berna Uzun, Dilber Uzun Ozsahin, and Basil Duwa

Abstract Multi-criteria decision making is recorded as one among many thriving

disciplines associate to settling thoughts and issues in relation to the multiple features
of the alternatives. Decision is made in daily bases which is part of life. However, it
could be associated to a particular person’s interest. In other words, decision is made
during an intention to either do something or not. These decisions can be considered
on intent on what to eat, wear or purchase or a career to choose as the case may be.
However, this research centers on making a choice on having a specific character of
interest. Many decision making issues have real contradictory objectives in life that
are highly considered. Multi-criteria decision-making is considered among many
fields that allow selection to take place. Material selection is one of the biggest
features to consider in engineering and research. Furthermore, selecting a material
to be used in a research or in decision-making area is a distinctive building technique
that is important in solving selection problems. Technically, choosing a material or
in other times replacing existing material may be as a result of in effectiveness of
the first which can easily be replaced by the later. Multi-criteria decision making in
other terms can be a qualitative and quantitative analysis. It is applicable incredibly in
different areas (fields) of specialization. This work introduces multi-criteria decision

B. Uzun (B) · D. Uzun Ozsahin

DESAM Institute, Near East University, Nicosia, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Turkey
e-mail: [email protected]
D. Uzun Ozsahin
e-mail: [email protected]
B. Uzun
Department of Mathematics, Near East University, Nicosia, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,
Turkey
D. Uzun Ozsahin · B. Duwa
Department of Biomedical Engineering, Near East University, Nicosia, Turkish Republic of
Northern Cyprus, Turkey
D. Uzun Ozsahin
Medical Diagnostic Imaging Department, College of Health Science, University of Sharjah,
Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 7

D. Uzun Ozsahin et al. (eds.), Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in
Environmental and Civil Engineering, Professional Practice in Earth Sciences,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64765-0_2
8 B. Uzun et al.

making approaches in solving and analyzing the problem that tilts towards solving
environmental engineering problems, understanding its strengths and weaknesses
involved.

Keywords Decision making · Multi criteria decision making process · Multi

criteria decision-making techniques

2.1 Introduction to Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

Analysis

Knowledge on multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) can predate to the existence

of man. Analytical reasoning and approach is a feature possess by both humans and
animals. This, distinctive analytical knowledge gives an individual the potentials
to rationally perceive a problem and solves it critically with intelligence. However,
MCDM is known since the existence of man without proper documentation and
reference.
A renowned American polymath and scientist, Benjamin Franklin (1706–1790),
analysed critically on his logical and intellectual perception of using two sides
of opinions, contradicting them (Zionts 1979). In other words, Benjamin Franklin
argued on and against an opinion, then analyzed them both with a powerful demon-
stration. He analyzed arguments that are of similar importance, writing them on a
paper. After he made an equal balance, it was observed that one side has tremen-
dous supportive argument remaining, which he considered as his decision. Benjamin
Franklin design of knowledge earned him a heroic place in drafting of the U.S decla-
ration of Independence and the constitution and other logical negotiation such as that
of treaty of Paris.
In a similar work to Benjamin Franklin, Kuhn and Tucker in 1951 defined the
MCDM problem using the nonlinear programming condition to optimize the MCDA
problems while considering the criteria simultaneously (Charnes and Cooper 1961).
Other scientists such as Charnes, Cooper and Fergusson in 1955 established a brand-
name tagged “Goal Programming” which was later published in 1961 by Cooper and
Charnes, respectively (Charnes et al. 1978). Their work, attracted numerous writers
and scientists because of the relevance of the work across different fields. These
fields include operations research and management sciences. Many researchers and
publishers became interested in Cooper and Charnes and contributed immensely to
their work, among which include Stan Zionts and Bruno Contini. These individuals
mutually worked with cooper to develop and publish a model in 1968, known as the
“Multi-Criteria Negotiating Model”.
Zionts one of the researchers continued his worked in relation to his previous
work at Brussels, European Institute for Advanced Studies in Management and met
another fellow named Jyrki Wallenius in 1973. These duos worked amicably using
the “goal programming” and developed a “Zionts Wallanius” communicating proce-
dures to solve many linear programming lapses. Subsequently the duos were also
2 Theoretical Aspects of Multi-criteria Decision-Making … 9

joined by another researcher named Pekka Korhonen in 1070. These individuals

worked tremendously in putting decision supportive methods used for interaction
solving mathematical programming problems. Their method of work attracted many
researchers globally. This brought some researchers into limelight; these individuals
include Carlos Romera, James Ignizio and Sang Moon Lee as major contributors in
goal programming.
In 1959 Ron Howard collaborated with Kimball G. E in 1959 to write an article
on the “Sequential Decision Processes”. However, the term “Decision Analysis” was
considered used first by him in the mid 1960s.
Another historical event is that of Ralph Keeney and Raiffa Howard in 1976 co-
authored and published a book that was incredibly important in the Multi Attribute
Value Theory establishment. This work is regarded as a standard work that can be
of a great reference for generations with regard to the study multi-criteria decision
making (MCDM). Subsequently, ELECTRE was developed in Europe by Bernard
Roy and others in the mid 1960s, respectively. This idea was to construct a great
network of preferences to establish methods that are outstanding. The late Amos
Tuersky and Daniel Kahneman worked on behavioral decision theory, which earned
Nobel prize in Economics in the year 2002.

2.1.1 Multi-criteria Decision-Making Meetings

Numerous dialogue was met that led to an organized meeting in 1975 by Zionts
and in 1977 by Buffalo in Jouy-en-Josas, with other relating researchers such as
Fandel Gunter, Tumas Gal, Stan Zionts, Andzej Wierzbicki and Jaap Spronk. These
individuals attended a meeting in Konigswinter, Germany related in 1979 that led to
founding of Special Interest Group (SIG) on MCDM. This gave Zionts a portfolio
of becoming the group leader. These individuals considered some reputable confer-
ence, recorded in France, New York and Jouy-en-Josas with interesting packages
(founding) attached to them, respectively.
In 1980, J. Morse organized a MCDM conference recorded in Dalaware as the
fourth conference recorded and the P. Hansen organized the fifth conference in Mons
Belgium in 1982. These meetings were held in different locations around the globe
every two years. Yacov Haimes organized the sixth meeting in 1984 in Cleveland
Ohio while Y. Sawaragi and H. nakayama organized the seventh conference in 1986
in Japan. A. G Lockett and G. Islei organized the eighth conference in 1988 in
Manchester, United Kingdom.
The ninth International conference was organized in 1990 by Ambrose
Goicoechea in Fairfax, Virginia. The tenth conference was organized by Gwo-
Hshiung and P.L. Yu in 1992 in Taiwa, Taipei province which was hugely assisted
by the Taiwanese government; these recorded high profiling individuals such as the
Russian Billionaire Boris Berezovsky in attendance. The eleventh conference was
in Coimbra (Portugal) in 1994 organized by J. Climaco, while in 1995 the twelfth
10 B. Uzun et al.

conference was organized by G. Fandel and T. Gal in Hagen, Germany. The thir-
teenth conference was organized in Cape Town (South Africa) in 1997 by T. Stewart
while the fourteenth conference, organized by Y.Y Haimes in 1998 in Charlottesvile
(U.S.A).
The fifteenth conference was organized in Ankara, Turkey in 2000 by M. Kksalan.
This was subsequently followed by the sixteenth conference in 2002, organized
by M. Luptacik and R. Vetchera in Semmering (Austria) which was followed by
the seventeenth conference organized by W. Wedley in 2004 in British Columbia,
Canada. The eighteenth conference was organized in Chania (Greece) in 2006 by
C. Zopounidis and followed by the Nineteenth conference organized by M. Ehrgott
in 2008 in Auckland (New Zealand). The twentieth conference was organized by Y.
Shi and S. Wang in June 2009 in Chengdu (China).
These conferences were active and are well organized. This moves simultaneously
to the 25th conference that was organized in 2019 in Istanbul, Turkey, which will
be followed, subsequently by the June 2021 conference scheduled to take place in
Portsmouth, UK.

2.2 The Main Definitions

This study presents an elaborate knowledge on the MCDM, this part also, explains
every term introduced in this book of decision analysis involved.
Multiple (Multi):
As the name implies, multiple, is perceived to be diverse in its look. This in other
words means is when things are numerous in terms, many or tremendously big.
Criteria:
Etiologically, criteria can be affiliated to criterion in its plural form. This term is
perceived to be a form of character or feature possess by an object. This may extend
to give a perfect description of anything.
Decision:
Derived from a latin word, means “to cut off”. In other words, it is an act of decision
that is essential in “cutting off” of anything. Choices are made by individuals or
groups about almost everything. It is a mind resolution to accept or reject after
tremendous analysis to consider.
Analysis:
This is process of breaking any difficult topic or matter into its smaller forms for
a simple and clear understanding. In other words, it can be perceived as a detailed
knowledge to examine elements or structure of anything.
2 Theoretical Aspects of Multi-criteria Decision-Making … 11

Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM):

This is a field that deals with decision that hugely involves a better or an outstanding
choice from different replicates of ideas based on criteria or attributes that may not
be clear to the observer.
Decision Analysis:
Another important aspect of learning is the decision analysis; this in other terms can
be a systematic and qualitative visualized approach that tends to evaluate important
choices perceived by the decision maker. This can be used by groups and individuals
that tend to make decisions about investment, business decisions strategy and even
risk management.
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA):
MCDA involves solving decision problems systematically. It is considered to be
theoretical in its approach using diverse choices. Decision making is considered a
field that relates to other fields effectively. An instance, is having an intention of
purchasing a vehicle; most importantly the buyer decides on the vehicles efficiency,
what to consider when buying the vehicle. However, similar comparable characters
evolve whenever an individual decides to buy, eat or even travel.
There are two main important facts that grease our potentials in achieving our
goals as individuals. These include;
1. Decision models or theories can be used to assist other individuals, societies
or groups to understand the power of decisions and principles attached to any
decision taken.
2. Decision models are used to design blue print on any decision to take as a plan
for a successful work.
MCDA is regarded as one among many types of analysis that is considered to
possess advantageous character towards broad spectrum importance. Choice to do
anything is one of human character which extends to solving major problems faced
by human when making decisions in all facets of life; career or not. Many alternatives
can be evaluated when taking a decision; however, this can be difficult times which
may not be satisfactory. In other words, decision makers are engaged to logically
employ their knowledge into rationale analysis. This alternatively brings MCDA into
limelight used as an appropriate tool by experts to inform, analyze, clarify and justify
decisions to be certified with success. This process was used in 1979 applying the
Stanley Zionts publication (If not A Rom, Numeral, Then What?) which he tried to
persuade his readers to use the method. This method was subsequently adopted in
other journals of International Society of MCDM.
12 B. Uzun et al.

2.3 Important Process to Follow

MCDM has essential steps to consider. The analytical decisions highly considered
include the following;
STEP 1 Defining The Problem:

This is one of the most important steps to consider when making a decision. Without
identifying the problem, the whole system becomes vague. Furthermore, in any case,
the essential importance to note is to understand a problem before finding the solution.
In many cases people tend to take decisions without understanding them. This could
relatively affect the whole decision without solution.
STEP 2 Determination of the Goal:

This process is done after problem is identified with a defined objective to propose
the decision making. The goal of any decision making is guided by the end result.
In other words, if there is no clear goal for the MCDM, then the result may be
affected. For instance, when an individual intends to purchase an object, the person
may consider an affordable yet qualitative product, which is regarded here as the
objective.
STEP 3 Specify Criteria:

Another important thing to consider is selection of the right criteria in MCDA. This
is considered as an attribute that guides an individual in getting the right objective.
The criteria selected determine the success of our objectives. However, it is important
to consider meaningful criteria when setting an objective. This will enable a better
comparison among the options at hand. Criteria make the objective to have meaning.
It can be expressed when we compare two individuals. For instance, a person buys a
mobile phone and another person buys fruits. These individuals clearly have the same
objective even when they bought different items. Their objectives were to buy cheap
and qualitative objects. Also, their criteria here are obviously different because they
have two different subjects bought. For the individuals that bought fruit, the criteria
attached to the purchase of fruit might be quality and durability while the other
individual that purchased mobile phone might be quality and its capacity such as
camera quality or its version.
STEP 4 Determining the Avaliable Alternatives:

Lists of options are important to design after the criteria are extracted. In other
words, getting the right criteria does not complete our determined objective of getting
something done, it also enables progressive work. Drawing a list of options will
enable our criteria to make more sense for a proper analysis. Another perspective is
when we have items that share the same function and quantity but have different cost
and quality. This can be seen when applying universities. Sometimes, individuals
2 Theoretical Aspects of Multi-criteria Decision-Making … 13

tend to consider ranking, accommodation and teaching factors as options to consider

before applying. Having a designed criteria assist to match our drawn criteria.
STEP 5 Analyzing the Alternatives:
After getting the relative options in line with our objectives, it is now important to
evaluate our options simultaneously. This will assist us to consider consequences
associated with our options. The result obtained can assist our logical conclusion on
each evaluation. It is however advisable to always consider option looking critically
into our objectives so as to have a potential gain with less risks involved.
STEP 6 Calculations:

This step introduces us to the use of data collected as mentioned to calculate and
select the best score to consider. This step enables us to obtain result by selecting
and picking the product of score for each criterion, getting the weight and then sum
the scores together. We obtain the final score when we add all the scores together
choosing the option with the best scores.
STEP 7 Reporting the Results:

This process tends to document every detailed desirable results obtained from the
previous options. This process assists in preserving all this as a document for future
use.

2.4 The strength of the usage of the MCDA

MCDA gives us various processes that are advantageous when compared to other
decision-making tools that are not affiliated to any specific criteria, these include the
following:
• It is not vague
• It can be adopted for different scenario simply
• It is rational
• It can be applied in various area
• MCDA assist in making decision
• Data combination could ease the decision maker work
Many theories can be applied to this study which can also be summarized showing
their advantages.
“Data Envelopment Analysis” (DEA) has the advantage of analyzing numerous
input and output with considering and measuring the efficiency togerher (Charnes
et al. 1978). In other words, DEA is applicable to many fields such as, economics,
medicine, software engineering, road safety, utilities, computer technology, agricul-
ture and solving many business problems. DEA is considerably favorable in resolving
problems giving a precise output.
14 B. Uzun et al.

One important, simple and easy method to be considered is the TOPSIS method
(Yahya et al. 2020). This is applicable to fields such as technology, transport and
economics (Behzadian et al. 2012). However, it can be difficult to weight the
importance levels of the criteria.
Another important method is the ELECTRE method. This method is useful
because of its ability to accept anything vague into account (Konidari and Mavradis
2007) and applicable to many fields such as transport and water management. It also
has disadvantage of its ability to process its end products, which may not be able to
be read in simply. This is a difficult process to explain in simple terms.
The PROMETHEE technique is one method that is perceived to be an easy tech-
nique that won’t need proportionate criteria in assumption (Ozsahin et al. 2018). It is
also applicable to many disciplines such as environment, energy, water management,
agriculture, education, business, finance and healthcare (Behzadian et al. 2010).
A similar to the PROMETHEE method, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is
also a technique based on pairwise comparison without demanding the exact data.
Its ranking structure can also be adjusted to measure different problems involved.
This method is also applicable to many fields such as public policy, political strategy,
and planning and resource management (Lai 1995). Thus, it has its disadvantages
attached such as the interdependence that exists between the options and criteria.
The “Simple Additive Weighting” (SAW) is another method that has the capacity
to adapt amid criteria, its perception in making decisions. This method spreads across
different fields of study such as in business, finance and water management (Podvezko
2011). However, the method needs significant work to prepare considerate data before
it is executed.
The VIKOR method is an MCDA technique that resolves decision-making prob-
lems that seem to contradict other problems. In this method, the person making
the decision tends to seek the best solution that is ideal to defined criteria while
considering the minimum regret (Yu 1973). The method is applicable to engineering.
The Fuzzy Logic Or Fuzzy Set Theory method involves using vague inputs or
insufficient data (Zadeh 1965). It extends its application to different fields such as in
engineering, economics, social, environmental and business problems involved. One
of its disadvantages is that it cannot be developed easily. It needs the experts opinion.
Its hybrid application with the other MCDA techniques gives the best solution of the
alternatives while the vague data arise.

References

Behzadian M, Kazemzadeh RB, Albadvi A, Aghdasi M (2010) PROMETHEE: a comprehensive

literature review on methodologies and applications. Eur J Oper Res
Behzadian M, Otaghsara S, Yazdani M, Ignatius J (2012) A state-of-the-art survey of TOPSIS
applications. Expert Syst Appl 39(17):13051–13069
Charnes A, Cooper WW (1961) Management models and industrial applications of linear
programming. Wiley, New York
2 Theoretical Aspects of Multi-criteria Decision-Making … 15

Charnes A, Cooper WW, Rhodes E (1978) Measuring the efficiency of decision making units. EJOR
2:429–444
Konidari P, Mavrakis D (2007) A multi-criteria evaluation method for climate change mitigation
policy instruments. Energy Policy 35(12):6235–6257
Lai S (1995) Preference-based interpretation of AHP. Int J Manage Sci 23(4):453–462
Ozsahin I, Uzun B, Isa NA, Mok GSP, Uzun Ozsahin D (2018) Comparative analysis of the common
scintillation crystals used in nuclear medicine imaging devices. In: 2018 IEEE nuclear science
symposium and medical imaging conference proceedings (NSS/MIC), Sydney, Australia, 2018,
pp 1–4. http://doi.org/10.1109/NSSMIC.2018.8824485
Podvezko V (2011) The comparative analysis of MCDA methods SAW and COPRAS. Inzinerine-
Ekonomika-Eng Econ 22(2):134–146
Yahya M, Gökçekuş H, Ozsahin D, Uzun B (2020) Evaluation of wastewater treatment technologies
using TOPSIS. Desalin Water Treat 177:416–422. https://doi.org/10.5004/dwt.2020.25172
Yu PL (1973) A class of solutions for group decision problems. Manage Sci 19(8):936–946
Zadeh L (1965) Fuzzy sets. Inf Control 8(3):338–353
Zionts S (1979) MCDM—if not a roman numeral, then what?. Interfaces 9(4):94–101. https://www.
mcdmsociety.org
Chapter 3
Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Dilber Uzun Ozsahin, Mennatullah Ahmed, and Berna Uzun

Abstract This study provides a comprehensive explanation about one of the impor-
tant multi-criteria decision-making technique entitled Analytical Hierarchy Process
(AHP). This chapter will include a summary of the steps required to carry out the
mathematical computation of AHP for problems with both consistency and inconsis-
tency in the decision-maker’s preferences. Hierarchy design, prioritization, criteria
weights, and consistency are all extensively taken into consideration. Further elabo-
rations regarding the different applications of the AHP process will also be discussed,
including various fields such as business-related decision making and decision theory
in the field of medicine. The limitations imposed by the analytical hierarchy process
are also discussed.

Keywords Analytical Hierarchy Process · Criteria Weights · Consistency Index ·

Prioritization · Pair-wise Comparison · Ratio Scales · Eigen Vectors · Eigen Value

D. Uzun Ozsahin · B. Uzun (B)

DESAM Institute, Near East University, Nicosia, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Turkey
e-mail: [email protected]
D. Uzun Ozsahin
e-mail: [email protected]
D. Uzun Ozsahin · M. Ahmed
Department of Biomedical Engineering, Near East University, Nicosia, Turkish Republic of
Northern Cyprus, Turkey
B. Uzun
Department of Mathematics, Near East University, Nicosia, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,
Turkey
D. Uzun Ozsahin
Medical Diagnostic Imaging Department, College of Health Science, University of Sharjah,
Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 17

D. Uzun Ozsahin et al. (eds.), Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in
Environmental and Civil Engineering, Professional Practice in Earth Sciences,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64765-0_3
18 D. Uzun Ozsahin et al.

3.1 Introduction

Ultimately, everyone is considered as a decision maker as we are all faced with

infinite choices on a daily basis and our decisions are made as result of a certain
decision-making process whether it be consciously or unconsciously. We accumulate
a certain degree of knowledge to help us reach our decisions. It is instinctive to
attempt to gather as much data as possible to reach a sound decision. However, not
all the data is valuable for the comprehension and development of judgments and can
instead sometimes cause complications and confusion. In some instances, it has been
demonstrated that knowing more does not necessarily lead to a better understanding.
To fundamentally comprehend a problem, it is necessary to determine the purpose of
the decision as well as the objectives and aims as the main factors that are the most
influential in choosing between different options. To identify the optimal alternative,
prioritization is a key notion in the process (Saaty 2008).
Decision making is a multi-disciplinary process that is a crucial aspect of different
processes in many different fields. Thus, attempts have been made for many years to
find an automated set of rules based on which decisions can be simplified and clearly
made. Using logic, psychology and mathematical computation decision making tech-
niques have been developed and applied in a variety of fields to help automate
the process and give consistency to final decisions made by large corporations and
systems.
The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a multi-criteria decision making tech-
nique developed by Saaty (1990) in the 1970s and has been continually advanced
and improved upon since then (Saaty 1980). This technique uses a hierarchy frame-
work or levels and then uses pair-wise comparisons to eliminate alternative options;
this method is solely based on the comparison of two alternative elements based on
a common property. In this way, complex problems can be unravelled and a clear
decision can then be made.
To generalize, the analytical hierarchy process is a widely inclusive system used
to mathematically compute quantitative and qualitative criteria to help allude to the
most appropriate and ideal solution. It is a simple but extremely powerful tool for
subjective problems regarding prioritization and selection and is therefore widely
applied in multiple fields and organizations. For example, businesses can apply AHP
for strategic planning, equipment choices, customer selection and project manage-
ment, while technological industries can also implement AHP for innovations with
several solutions AHP can also be implemented in government, healthcare and even
personal decisions such as college choices, property purchases or even when it comes
to purchasing a new car or mobile phone. This system can take a subjective problem
and give precise discrete nominal quantification values of priorities in a way that is
efficient and reliable.
The analytical hierarchy process has been described based on seven foundations
(Saaty 2001). The first of these is the derivation of ratio scales from reciprocal
pair wise comparisons. These ratio scales represent proportionality and are a crucial
component for synthesizing priorities in decision theory. Another main aspect of AHP
3 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) 19

Fig. 3.1 Hierarchy

framework

is the psychological origin of the scale used to make said comparisons, which leads
to the third pillar which is the inconsistency also denoted as the sensitivity to changes
in judgements. Prioritization is then developed giving rise to an eigenvector that can
be integrated in the AHP general feedback structure, hence reducing the mathemat-
ical method to a one-dimensional normalized ratio scale allowing a unit-less scale
measurement. This methodology can be then marked on the basis of whether or not
the ranking is preserved or reversal is allowed. Finally, implementing mathematical
methodologies into group decision making to generate individual opinions or judge-
ments is crucial to enable the fabrication of a fundamental group decision that would
be compatible with individual predispositions.
There are several steps involved in AHP; when given a complex problem, the first
step is to construct the hierarchy framework, also known as a feedback network. This
hierarchy will have three levels: level one being the goals, level two being the different
criteria and finally, level three being the different alternative options as shown in
Fig. 3.1. The decision-making process is then initiated by systematically comparing
elements two at a time, and giving numerical weight values using scale ratios to each
element based on either actual data or subjective opinion. This is where inconsistency
can be possible, thus leading to the need to calculate the consistency index, which is a
numerical value representing variance or inconsistency. The weights are then used to
make a pairwise comparison matrix which is then used to calculate criteria weights.
The mathematical computations involved in the AHP are categorized as eigenvector
calculations where the Eigen value corresponds to each criteria weight. Depending
on the context of the problem being solved, the same could then be applied to sub-
criteria if they are present. In this way, we can compare criteria with differing scales,
i.e. price and size.
While the analytical hierarchy process is widely applicable to various types of
problems that vary in terms of their degrees of complexity, this method is most effi-
ciently applied in more complicated problems that have a large number of objectives
or criteria that may include sub-divisions within them (sub-criteria). As such, for
more complex problems, it is harder to compare all the objectives to one another and
it can be significantly error prone if not approached in a systematic and consistent
manner. To resolve this problem, the AHP can be applied to complicated issues such
as the prediction of the future of higher education, design choices for a national
transport system and even recruitment options in the workplace. In addition to this,
AHP provides the decision-maker with quantified measurements of compatibility
that can then be utilized to analyse the problem manually (Lee et al. 2007).
20 D. Uzun Ozsahin et al.

In this chapter, we will dissect the mathematical computation of AHP with two
simplified examples to help clarify the methodology. The Eigenvalue method is used
is used for decision makers that have consistency in their preferences. Consistency
is a pivotal concept in AHP as it determines the method to be used. In the case of an
inconsistent decision maker, the Eigenvalue method is inapplicable and so the quan-
tification is made through a matrix solution (2). The identification of inconsistency
as opposed to consistency in decision making will also be extensively discussed.
For example, how can we tell if the decision maker is consistent with their pref-
erences? This will be discussed thoroughly and elaborated with worked examples
giving relevance to the distributive and ideal modes of AHP (Saaty 2001).

3.2 Mathematical Computation of AHP

As previously mentioned, the first step in AHP is setting clear objectives and goals.
The different criteria are considered along with their sub-criteria and are combined
with the alternatives to form the hierarchy tree network. Then, the different qualities
of each alternative, the criteria, are assessed in a pairwise comparison with respect
to the set objectives to derive their priority as a numerical value using a ratio. The
ratio scale or scale of relative importance developed by Saaty (1987) ranges from
1–9, where 1 denotes equal importance and 9 denotes extreme importance, as illus-
trated in Table 3.1 (Taherdoost 2020). This numerical value is denoted as the criteria
weights. These weights are then put into matrix form and mathematical steps are
carried out to evaluate the alternative weights and consistency ratios. Therefore, we
initially have an input as actual measurements of subjective opinions and our end
result will be the ratio scales, which will be in Eigenvector form (denoted as ω),

Table 3.1 Ratio scale of relative importance (Saaty 1987)

Importance Definition Explanation
1 Similarly important Both of the components have the same
commitment within the objective
3 Moderately important One component has a normal advantage
compared to the other element
5 Strong important Having a compelling favouring of one
component compared to the other
7 Very solid and demonstrated importance One element is escalation favoured and
has upper control in practice, compared
to the other present components
9 Extreme importance One component is advocated in
comparison with the other, this is based
on the intensity of the demonstrated
evidence and facts
2, 4, 6, 8 Inter-values
3 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) 21

as well as the consistency index, which will be in Eigenvalue form (denoted as λ).
The mathematical methodology used here is based on the Eigenvalue problem. The
Eigenvector of alternative weights as well as the consistency index is then utilized
to rank the alternatives, thus clarifying the optimal alternative.
When faced with a choice between x number of choices, one can apply the AHP
method to select the optimal choice. To do this, the decision maker must first design
the hierarchy model. This requires an assessment of the problem at hand by cate-
gorizing the alternatives together, the criteria and finally, setting a goal. They are
then put into a hierarchy network similar to that shown in Fig. 3.1. Secondly, the
decision-maker will use pairwise comparisons to compare each choice with the others
using the ratio scale of relative importance illustrated in Table 3.1. These comparison
values will be used to construct the pairwise comparison matrix A.
 
A = ai j

This matrix will have the following characteristics:

• Square matrix with dimensions of x ×x, where x represents the number of choices
(criteria)
• Leading diagonal input elements will all hold a value of 1.
• Positive matrix; meaning all elements will be greater than 0, non-negative.

aij > 0 for i, j = 1, . . . , n

• Reciprocal matrix; meaning adjacent inputs will be the reciprocal values of each
other.

1
ai j = for i, j = 1, . . . , n
a ji

Consistency in judgments is a mandatory concept in AHP that will be thoroughly

discussed in this chapter. To generalize, it legitimizes the applicability of the AHP
method depending on how consistent the decision-maker is when applying his/her
personally motivated preference in judgements. If the following holds true, then the
decision maker is said to be consistent:

aik = a∗ij akj for i, j, k = 1, . . . , n

In AHP, inconsistency is expected and accounted for. This is because the numerical
values are derived from the decision maker’s preference or individual opinions. In
real life, these values can be inconsistent and therefore these inconsistencies must
be accounted for. To summarize, below is a step-by-step simplified overview of
22 D. Uzun Ozsahin et al.

the methodology followed by several simple examples that will be used to further
reinforce a more developed understanding (Saaty 2008).
1. The decision maker must define the problem and determine the kind of data they
will make the judgments on.
2. The hierarchy is structured and designed, designating the top level as the defined
goal, the second level as the broader interpretation of the determined objectives,
intermediate levels as the sub-criteria to be assessed and finally, the lowest level
will be composed of the different alternative options.
3. Using the ratio scale of relative importance developed by Saaty 1987 (Table 1.1), a
pairwise comparison matrix is constructed where all the elements are comparative
judgements made by the decision maker.
4. The pairwise matrix is normalized, and the criteria weights are derived as the
average of each row in the matrix.
5. Using the derived criteria weights, we can find the Eigen vector (ω) by calculating
the weight sum value for each criterion.
6. The Eigen value (λ) is then found such that Aω = λω
7. Finally, the consistency index is calculated to legitimize the reliability of the
decision maker’s judgments.

3.3 Theoretical Apprehension of Consistency

The concept of consistency is one of the essential step of the analytical hierarchy
process. In principle, the consistency ratio is calculated as the reliability of the prefer-
ential judgments in comparison to a large number of randomly generated judgments.
Realistically, inconsistency is inevitable as it is non-avoidable, primarily because
the foundation of decision making is based on the personal preference of the deci-
sion maker and it is inevitable that inconsistency will occur in the preference of the
decision maker. In other words, the input of the AHP system is based on personal
preference and therefore highly prone to human error (Dyer and Forman 1991). The
question at hand is the degree of the consistency and whether or not it satisfies the
predetermined standard values (Mu and Pereyra-Rojas 2017).
To quantify the level of consistency in the problem at hand, the consistency ratio
is derived as the ratio of the consistency index to the random index. The consistency
index represents the consistency of the pairwise matrix of the given problem. On the
other hand, the random index matrix is a representation of the average consistency
ratio of 500 randomly generated pairwise matrices. These values are predetermined
and constant; they are singularly dependent on the dimensions (n) of the problem at
hand. The calculated values are illustrated in Table 3.2. Based on the previous work
of Saaty regarding the complexities of the concept of consistency in the analytical
hierarchy process, the consistency ratio is defined as CR where CR = CI/RI (Saaty
2012). He also eluded that the standard CR value is 0.1, meaning that if the consis-
tency ratio is calculated to be equivalent to or less than the standard 0.1 value, then the
problem is acceptably denoted as consistent and the analysis process is legitimized.
3 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) 23

Table 3.2 Corresponding

Matrix dimensions (n) Random Index value (RI)
random index values for
different matrix dimensions 1 0.0
2 0.00
3 0.58
4 0.90
5 1.12
6 1.24
7 1.32
8 1.41
9 1.45
10 1.49

Otherwise, if the consistency ratio is found to be greater than the standard value of 0.1,
then the problem is insufficiently consistent and requires re-evaluation. In the case
where the problem is denoted as inconsistent, the decision-makers must re-assess the
preferential reasoning and identify the source of the variance or inconsistencies to
then rectify and refine them so that consistency holds true for the problem at hand.
Notice that as the number of criteria increases or as the matrix dimension gets
larger, a subsequent incremental effect is imposed onto the corresponding index
value as well. This indicates that as the problem becomes more complex, meaning
it encompasses a greater number of criteria and sub-criteria (dimensions), then the
possibility of inconsistencies in judgments also increases. Relating this ideology to
logic helps enhance the fundamental understanding of the concept. In this sense, if
we increase the instances where the decision-maker has to provide an input based on
personal preference, i.e. criteria, then a higher chance of variations will be induced.
The work done by Saaty proved that for the consistency problem, the pairwise
matrix is reciprocal and positive and holds a maximum Eigen value equivalent to the
dimensions of the comparison matrix (n). In other words:

λmax = n

In addition to this, he introduced the consistency index as a measure of consistency

and this is found using the formula,

λmax − n
C.I =
n−1

where n is the dimension of the reciprocal positive comparison matrix and λ max
represents the maximum Eigen value, which in the ideal case (no inconsistencies)
would hold the identical value n (dimension of the matrix). The closer the maximum
Eigen value is to the dimension of the matrix, the more the consistency index
decreases, and the consistency ratio decreases accordingly.
24 D. Uzun Ozsahin et al.

References

Dyer R, Forman E (1991) An analytic approach to marketing decisions. Prentice-Hall International,

London
Lee M, Wang H, Wang H (2007) A method of performance evaluation by using the analytic network
process and balanced score car. In: 2007 International conference on convergence information
technology (ICCIT 2007), Gyeongju, pp 235–240. https://doi.org/10.1109/iccit.2007.216
Mu E, Pereyra-Rojas M (2017) Practical decision making. Springer International Publishing, Cham
Saaty T (1980) In: The analytic heirarchy process, McGraw-Hill
Saaty R (1987) The analytic hierarchy process—what it is and how it is used. Mathematical
Modelling 9(3-5):161–176
Saaty T (1990) In: The analytical heirarchy process: planning proprity setting resource allocation
Saaty T (2001) In: The seven pillars of the analytical hierarchy process. Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA,
University of Pittsburgh
Saaty T (2008) Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. Int J Serv Sci 1(1):83
Saaty T (2012) Decison making for leaders: the analytical heirarchy process for decisons in a
complex world. RWS Publications, Third Revised Edition, Pittsburgh
Taherdoost H (2020) Decision making using the analytical heirarchy process (ahp); a step by step
approach. Int J Econom Manage Syst IARS 2:244–246
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Powers around, he was as tipsy as a tinker. He'd bin at my black-
strap, an' I wish you could 'a' seen him. He didn't know where he
was at, or where he wanted to be at, an' he was jolly, an' friendly,
an' see-sawed roun' me, an' rolled an' swaggered till I tho't I'd die
laughin'. My pain went like las' year's snow, an' I walked after that
b'ar till he was out o' sight. Just like a drunken man he was, makin'
for home, an' in the midst of all his foolery havin' an idea of where
he'd oughter go. I'd 'a' given a good deal to see Mrs. B'ar's face
when he arrove. An' didn't those other fellers give it to me for not
shootin' him! I said I couldn't take a mean advantage of his
sitooation."
'Tilda Jane's face was composed now, and with a faint smile she
reverted to the subject of the deer. "Don't you feel bad when you're
killin' them, an' they looks at you with their big eyes?"

"Look here, leetle gal, don't you talk no more 'bout them, or you'll
hev me as mush-hearted as you be," said Lucas, getting up and
going to the window. "At present I ain't got no feelin' about deer
excep' that what's in the woods is ours. You jus' stand up an' try
your feet. It's goin' to snow, an' I'd like to git you out o' here. Did
you ever try to teeter along on snow-shoes?"
"No, sir," she said, getting up and walking across the room.

Lucas was anxiously surveying the sky. "'Pears like it was goin' to
snow any minute. The las' thaw took the heft of it off the ground—
you'd 'a' never got in this fur if it hadn't—an' we're bound to hev
another big fall. It ain't fur to the road, an' I guess you an' Zebedee
better start. Lemme see you walk, sissy."
'Tilda Jane tottered back to her seat.
 "It's a smart trot home," observed Zebedee. "D'ye think she could
foot it?"

"Pop, it's snowin' now," said Joe, who had taken his father's place
at the window.
With almost incredible rapidity there had been a change in the
weather. A small and sullen cloud had hidden the dreamy, thoughtful
sun, and out of the cloud came wheeling, choking gusts, bearing
bewildered snowflakes up and down, hither and thither, before
allowing them to alight turbulently upon the quiet earth.

"That's quick," muttered Lucas, philosophically. "We'll hev to put

off opinions till it's over," and he again sat down by the fire. The
wind tore around the small cabin, furiously seeking an entrance, but
finding none. Outside at least he could have his will, and his
vengeance fell upon the sturdy young firs and spruces, who at his
fierce word of command threw off their burdens of snow, and bent
and swayed before his wrath as wildly as the most graceful
hardwood saplings. The older trees bent more reluctantly. They had
seen many winters, many storms, yet occasionally a groan burst
from them as the raging breath of the wind monster blew around
some decaying giant and hurled him to the ground.

'Tilda Jane pictured the scene without, and cowered closer to the
fire. Gippie was on her lap, Poacher beside her, and this man with
his two boys, who at present personified her best friends in the
world, were safe and warm in their shelter.

Her dark face cleared, and in dreamy content she listened to the
string of hunting stories reeled off by the two boys, who, without
addressing her directly, were evidently stimulated by the knowledge
that here was an interested, appreciative, and "brand new" listener.
 CHAPTER XI.
A SUDDEN RESOLUTION.

The storm did not abate. All day long it raged around the cabin,
and the four prisoners talked, ate, and drank without grumbling at
their captivity. When bedtime approached, Lucas addressed 'Tilda
Jane in an apologetic manner. "Ye see we ain't used to havin' leetle
gals, an' I'm afeard we can't make you very comfy, as my ole woman
says, but we'll do the best we kin. This room's all we've got, but I'm
goin' to try to make it two. See here," and rising, he went to one of
the rough bunks built against the wall opposite the fire; "I'm a-goin'
to drape ye off a place for yourself and dog," and, hanging a blanket
on a hook by the fireplace, he called loudly for a nail to drive in the
logs across the corner.

The two boys, who were playing cards at the table, jumped up,
and presently 'Tilda Jane had a snug corner to herself. Lucas had
dragged out one of the fragrant fir beds from one of the bunks. The
rustling of the evergreen inside reminded her of her narrow straw
bed at the orphanage, and drawing the blanket over her, she nestled
down and patiently waited for her friends to seek their equally
fragrant couches. She was very sleepy, but she must not drop off
until she had said her prayers. It never occurred to her to repeat
them to herself. She must get up and say them aloud, and upon her
knees.
 After some time there was silence outside her screen, except for
the heavy breathing of the sleepers, and the slow, deliberate
crackling of the fire over the fresh wood heaped upon it by Lucas.

She crept quietly from her bed and knelt down. "Dear Father in
heaven, I thank thee for saving my life. I might 'a' been dead at this
minute if thou hadst not sent that good dog to find me. Please make
me a better girl for being saved. I'll take good care o' that old man if
thou wilt let me find him. Bless the red-haired man that owns this
cabin. I guess he is a good man, Lord, but if he kills deer, wilt thou
not lay on his heart a coal from thy altar? If he was a deer, he would
not like to be killed. Bless him, dear Father in heaven, an' his two
boys, an' bless me an' Gippie an' Poacher an' keep us safe for
evermore,—an' bless the lady-boards, an' the matron, an' all the
little orphans, an' let them find good homes an' get out o' the
'sylum,—Lord, I will write them a letter as soon as I get settled, an'
confess what is wickedness, an' what ain't. I don't want to be a bad
little girl. I want to live straight, an' go to heaven when I die, but I'm
sorry I had to begin in a 'sylum. It ain't a place for children what
likes animiles. For Jesus' sake, Amen."
With a relieved sigh, 'Tilda Jane crept back to bed and went to
sleep, quite unaware that her petition had awakened Lucas, who
slept as lightly as a cat. She had waked him, and now he could not
go to sleep. For a long time he lay motionless in his bunk, then softly
getting up, he seated himself on one of the boxes before the fire,
and let his head sink on his hands.

Years ago he had had a deeply religious mother. One who would
rise at dead of night and pray earnestly for her children. 'Tilda Jane's
childish prayer had brought back this mother from her grave. What a
good woman she had been! The dying wind, sobbing and sighing
without, called to mind the camp-meetings that he used to attend
when he was a boy. Churches were few and far between, and it was
the event of the year for the scattered religious people to gather
together under the pines for out-of-door services. He could hear the
women singing now,—the weird sound of their voices floated down
the chimney. Surely he was among them again,—that good, religious
crowd.
He shook himself, muttered an impatient exclamation, and went
back to bed. No, they were mostly dead, his mother was in heaven,
and he was a hard, impenitent man. But his children—something
ought to be done about them. This little girl had stirred these old
memories—Zebedee and Joe must quit this life, and, with a snarl of
determination on his brow, he turned over and fell into a profound
and resolved slumber.
Early the next morning 'Tilda Jane heard some one stirring quietly
about the cabin. She peeped from behind the screen, and found that
it was the father of the boys. He was making coffee, and taking
dishes from a shelf to set them on the small table. He was also
frying meat.

'Tilda Jane did not like to venture out until the boys had made
their toilet, which they presently did by springing from their beds,
drawing on their boots, and smoothing their thick locks with a piece
of comb that reposed on a small shelf near a broken looking-glass.
When they had finished, she piped through the screen, "Will you
please gimme a lend o' the comb?"
 It was politely handed to her, and in a short time she made her
appearance.

"Ho—deer's meat!" said Joe, sniffing joyfully. "Where'd you get it,
pop?"
"Found half a carcass leanin' agin the door this mornin'," he said,
briefly.
"Some o' the boys must 'a' left it on their way out," remarked
Zebedee. "Hard blow to travel in. Gimme some, pop."

Lucas had settled himself at the table, and was eating with every
appearance of enjoyment.
"Nop," he said, pausing, and speaking with his mouth full. "That
thar is for you an' the leetle gal."
The boys stared at him in undisguised astonishment.
"Fall to," he said, inexorably, "eat your bacon and beans, an' be
thankful you've got 'em. There's many an empty stummick in the
woods this mornin'."
Joe, who was readier of speech than his brother, found his tongue
first. "Ain't you goin' to give us any fresh meat, pop?"

"No, sir-r-r."
"You ain't got loony in the night, pop?"

"Y' don't calklate to eat half a carcass y'rself, do ye?" said

Zebedee, with a feeble attempt at a joke.
"Nop—what I don't eat, I'll lug off in the woods."
 "He's loony," said Joe, with resignation, and serving himself with
bacon.
'Tilda Jane was silently eating bread and beans, and to her Lucas
addressed himself. "Leetle gal, the storm's a-goin' to conclude
accordin' to my reckonin'. Kin you foot it out on snow-shoes this
mornin' to the nearest house, do you s'pose?"
"Yes, sir," she said, quietly.

"An' you two boys will keep her comp'ny," said Lucas, turning to
his sons. "I'm a-goin' to march on to Morse's camp."
There was a howl of dismay from Joe. "You give me your word
Zebedee was to go."
"An' I give you my word now that you're to go," said his father,
sternly. "In an hour I'll make tracks. You two wait till the last flake's
settled, then take the leetle gal an' git her out safe an' sound to
William Mercer's. Ask him to hitch up an' take her over to Nicatoos
station, an' I'll settle with him. Then you skedaddle for home, git out
your books, an' to-morrer go to school."

This time there was a simultaneous howl from the boys, and in
the midst of their distress could be heard faintly articulated the
words, "Pop—books—school!"
Lucas turned to 'Tilda Jane. "Yes, we're poachers, leetle gal, an'
when I ask ye to say nothin' about what ye've seen an' heard here, I
know ye'll keep as mum as we do. I'm a poacher, an' I'm goin' to
hev a hard time to give it up. They used to call me king o' the
poachers, till another feller come along smarter nor I was. Anyway, I
can't give it up yet. It's in my blood now, an' men as ole as I be
don't repent easy. It's when ye're young an' squshy that you
repents. But these two cubs o' mine," and he eyed his boys with
determination, "has got to give up evil ways right off. Ye've got to go
to school, sons, an' learn somethin', an' quit poachin', an' hevin' the
law hangin' over ye all the time."
The boys looked ugly and rebellious, and, perceiving it, he went
on. "Come now, none o' that; when ye're respectable, hard-workin'
men ye'll be ashamed o' your father, an' that'll be my punishment if I
don't get out o' this. An' you needn't kick, 'cause I'll lick ye all to
splinters if I ketches one o' you in the woods this spring. Ye've got to
turn right round."
"I'll turn right round an' come back," said Zebedee, bitterly and
furiously.
Lucas got up, took him by the coat collar, and, without a word, led
him outside the cabin.
A few minutes later they returned—both flushed—Lucas grim and
determined, and Zebedee sulky and conquered.

"Air you also cravin' for an argyment?" asked Lucas, ironically, of

Joe.
"I'm cravin' to lick you," said the boy, bursting out into a wild
raving and swearing at him.
"Swearin' when there is ladies present," said his father, seizing him
by the shoulder, and dragging him the way his brother had gone.

'Tilda Jane stopped eating, and sat miserably with downcast eyes.
She felt dimly that she had made trouble in this family, and brought
additional misfortune upon herself, for what kind of escorts would
these whipped boys be?

Lucas's tussle with Joe was a longer one than the former with
Zebedee had been, and not until after some time did he return. Joe
hung about outside for an hour, then he came in, shaking and
stamping the snow from him, and, as if nothing had happened, sat
down and finished his breakfast.
Lucas, meanwhile, had been making preparations for his long
tramp. 'Tilda Jane watched him with interest as he took a sack, tied
a potato in each corner, and proceeded to fill it with parcels of
provisions.
When at last he sat down, took off his cow-hide moccasins, and
began to tie on soft moose moccasins, fit for snow-shoeing, he
addressed his two boys.
"When parients tell their children things air to be did, they ought
to be did. When the children raves an' tears, they ought to be licked,
an' when the lickin's over, the reasons come. Air you sighin' either o'
ye to see the inside o' State's prison? Air you, Zebedee?"
"No, sir," said the boy, shortly.

"Air you, Joe?"

Joe, with his mouth full of beans, replied that he was not.
"Wal, that's where you'll land if ye don't quit breakin' State's law.
Ye ain't either o' ye as clever as I be, but I've got to try to give it up,
too. I've bin feelin' that ye'd git caught some day, and I've made up
my mind, an' I'll hold it to my dyin' day. I'm goin' to crowd ye out o'
this risky game. If I ketch one o' you after deer agin, I'll give ye up
to the warden myself. I swan I will," and he brought his hand down
energetically on the table. "Now you go home an' go to school with
smart boys an' gals till summer vacation, then ye can tell me what
ye think of it. I'll not pretend I'll let ye out of it if ye don't like it, but
I guess ye will. Ye've bin to school before an' made good progress,
an' I asks yer pardon for takin' ye out."
Zebedee listened in quiet resentfulness, but Joe, who possessed a
more volatile disposition, and who having satisfied his hunger was
comparatively good-natured, remarked, "What'll ye do about
Poacher, pop?"
Lucas's face darkened suddenly, and unhappily.
"Come here, ole boy," he said, and when the dog went to him, he
bowed his head for a minute over him. "We've bin good friends—me
an' you. Many's the trap I've led ye in, an' many a time my heart
would 'a' bin sore if ye'd a bin caught. An' now, 'count o' my
transgression, ye're a wanderin' sheep. Ye'll never git back in the
fold agin unless some good sheep leads ye."
"There's somethin' you can't make over," said Zebedee, briefly.
"He'll chase deer as long as he kin wag a leg."

"Leetle gal," said Lucas, suddenly, "would ye like to hev this dog?"
"To have him—that beauty dog!" 'Tilda Jane gasped, confusedly.
"Oh, sir, you'd never give him away."

"I'd most as soon give a child away," said Lucas, "an' I'd never do
it, if it warn't for his habits. Ye're a-goin' to Ciscasset, which is
somethin' of a place, an' a ways from the woods. An' ye'll pet him
an' kinder cherish him, an' keep him from frettin' an' bein' lonely. My
ole woman don't set much store by dogs, an' when I'm workin' in
the tannery he's off doggin' deer by himself. He's nearly got shot
dead. See those ripples in his back? That's where he's bin grazed.
Poacher, ole boy, you've got to go with this leetle gal, if she'll hev
you."
'Tilda Jane hesitated, stammered, looked into the dog's anxious
face, and the boys' protesting ones, and said at last, "But the ole
man where I'm goin', mebbe he'll breach at my havin' two dogs."
"Prob'bly he will," said Lucas, "but you crowd right up to him.
Folks is queer 'bout dogs. Them as don't like 'em don't want to give
'em standin' room on this airth, but you walk right up to 'em an' say,
'This dog has as good a right to a place on God's footstool as you
hev, an' I'm goin' to see he gits it. If you was more like a dog yerself,
ye'd be more thought of, ye cross-grained, cranky ole skillingsby'—
come you, sons, quit that scowlin'. Do ye know why I'm givin' that
dog to the little gal stid o' you?"
They uttered a brief negative.
"'Cause she knows dog language," said Lucas, dropping his voice
to a whisper, and looking mysteriously over his shoulder, "an' if there
was a deer here, you'd find she knowed deer talk. You, sons, is fond
o' dogs, but not in the style the leetle gal is, or I be. It's a kind o'
smartness at gettin' inside the animal's skin. He don't verily talk. Ye
jist understan' him without talk—leetle gal, what's Poacher sayin'
now?"
"Oh, he don't want to go with me," burst out 'Tilda Jane, with
energy. "He's a sick dog. Look at his eyes an' his droopin' ears. He
don't want you to give him away. He don't want me to take him. Oh,
I can't!" and she buried her face in her hands as if to hide
temptation from her.
"He's got to go," said Lucas, stroking Poacher's head, "an' mind
me, dog," and he put his hand under the dog's jaws and lifted them
so that he could look in his eyes, "no runnin' away from Ciscasset.
Ye stay with that leetle gal. Don't ye come chasin' round here, 'cause
if ye do, I'll turn my back on ye for a runaway, an' ye'll feel worse'n
ye do now when we part on speakin' terms. Say, is it a bargain, ole
feller? Call him, leetle gal."
'Tilda Jane was overawed by Lucas's determined manner, and
dropping her hands she ejaculated feebly, "Here, Poacher, Poacher!"
The dog looked at her, then pressed closer to his master,
whereupon Lucas seized a stick by the fireplace, and struck him
sharply.
Poacher turned his large brown eyes on him in one despairing,
reproachful glance, then with drooping head sauntered across the
room to the boys.

"Call him," said Lucas to 'Tilda Jane. "Speak up as if ye knew he

was your dog."
"Poacher," she said, in a firm voice, "come here. You're mos' as
unhappy as I be—we'll be unhappy together."
The suffering animal moved slowly toward her, and laid his head
on her lap.

There were tears in his eyes, and the little girl groaned as she
wiped them away.
 CHAPTER XII.
FAREWELL TO THE POACHERS.

Lucas was ready to start, and 'Tilda Jane and the boys stood in
the doorway watching him tie on his snow-shoes.
"Now, sons," he said, straightening himself up and drawing on his
woollen mittens, "I'm goin' one way an' you another, but if ye act
contrairy an' pouty to that leetle gal, I'll know it, for she's goin' to
write me, an' if there's any complaint, there'll be such a wallopin' as
these ones this mornin' would be a shadder an' a dream to."
His lecture over, he looked over his shoulder and narrowly
inspected the faces of his two boys. They were reserved, almost
expressionless. It might be a month before he saw them again. He
forgot 'Tilda Jane for an instant, "Sons—ye know yer pop loves ye,
don't ye?"
His tone had suddenly changed, and the two big boys ran to him
as if they still were children. "Pop, can't we come back after we take
her out?" they exclaimed, with backward jerks of their heads toward
'Tilda Jane. Their hands were on his arms, and they were roughly
fondling his shoulders—these two unmannerly cubs of his.
"Sons," he said, in a broken voice, "I ain't been a good father to
ye. I've got to spend the last o' my life in rootin' up the weeds I
sowed the fust part. I don't want you to have such a crop. Now you
go 'long out an' be good sons. Your mother'll be sot up, an' you mind
what she says, an' I'll soon come home. Take good care o' the leetle
gal," and passing his hand, first over one brown head, then over the
other, he tramped away out of view among the snowy spruces.
The boys and 'Tilda Jane went back into the cabin. The two
former sat together by the fire and talked, taking little notice of her.
All their friendliness of the evening before was gone, yet they were
not openly unkind, but simply neglectful. Toward noon the snow
ceased falling, as Lucas had predicted, the sun came out brilliantly,
and they began making preparations for departure.
Zebedee was to wear an old pair of snow-shoes that had been left
in the cabin, and 'Tilda Jane was to put on his new ones. Her
humility and unselfishness slightly thawed the boys' reserve, and
when they at last started, her ridiculous attempts at snow-shoeing
threw them into fits of laughter.
Zebedee carried the infirm Gippie, who otherwise would have sunk
to his neck in the snow, Poacher soberly plunged his way along,
while Joe assisted 'Tilda Jane in keeping her equilibrium. After an
hour's travel, she had become quite expert in the art of taking wide
steps, and no longer needed his helping hand.

"Air we mos' there?" she asked.

"In the span of another hour and a half," said Joe.
The hour and a half went by. They tramped on under the serene
blue of the sky, and in such a solemn stillness that it seemed as if
never a bird nor beast could have inhabited this white wilderness.
Only the voiceless, silent trees were there, clad all in white like
ghosts of departed living things. But at last their winding way
through the wood came to an end, and they stepped out on the old
road. Here were evidences of travel. A few teams had passed by,
and there were snow-shoe tracks alongside those of the sleigh
runners.
The trees also grew more sparsely, and soon gave place to
clearings, then the distant roof of a barn appeared, and finally a
long, thin string of small farmhouses winding down a bleak road
before them.

"Is this your home?" asked 'Tilda Jane, of the boys.

"Nop," answered Joe, "we live off'n that way," and he pointed
down a road to the left. "But we've got to take you here to the
Mercers', pop said."
He drew up before the first in the string of houses,—a poor
enough place, and unspeakably chilling in its deathly whiteness. A
tiny white house, a white barn, a white fence, a white cow in the
yard,—white snow over everything.
"Looks as if they'd all died an' gone to heaven," thought 'Tilda
Jane, with a shiver.
"Hole on," said Joe. "I'll run ahead an' see if the folks is home.
Ain't no smoke cornin' out o' the chimney."
He swung open the gate, hurried in, pounded at the front door,
pounded at the back door, and finally returned. "Guess there mus'
be a funeral or somethin'—all off, anyway. What'll we do, Zeb?"
Zebedee shrugged his shoulders. "S'pose we go nex' door?"
"But them's the Folcutts," objected Joe.
 "S'pose they be."
"Well, you know—"
"Guess they kin drive as well as Mercer's folks."

"What would pop say?"

"It's nearer than the nex' house."
"I'm kind o' tired," said 'Tilda Jane, politely and faintly. "Just drop
me, an' you go back. I'll find some one."
"Nop," said Joe, firmly, "we promised pop."
"Come on," said Zebedee, "let's try the Folcutts."

They went slowly on to the next blot on the landscape,—this one,

a low-roofed, red house with untidy windows, and a feeble, wavering
line of smoke rising from the kitchen chimney.
They all went around to the back door, and, in response to their
knock a slatternly woman appeared.
"What you want, boys?"

"Pop says will you take this gal to Nicatoos station?" asked Joe.
"He'll square up with you when he comes out."
The woman looked 'Tilda Jane all over. "The roads is main heavy."
'Tilda Jane leaned up against the door-post, and the woman
relented. "I guess it won't kill our hoss," she remarked. "Is it the
seven o'clocker you want?"
'Tilda Jane appealed to the boys.

"Yes, m'am," responded Joe, promptly.

 "Needn't start for an hour yit. Come on in, boys."
"I guess we'll be goin' on home," said Zebedee.
Joe, for some reason or other, seemed reluctant to leave 'Tilda
Jane. He carefully lifted Gippie to a resting-place by the kitchen
stove, untied 'Tilda Jane's snow-shoes and strapped them on his
back, stroked Poacher repeatedly, and finally with a hearty "So long,
little gal, let's hear from you," he made her an awkward bob of his
head and ran after his brother, who had reached the road.
'Tilda Jane drew up to the stove, and, while she sat drying her
dress, looked about her. What a dirty kitchen! The log cabin she had
just left was neatness itself compared with this place. Pots and pans
were heaped in a corner of the room, the table was littered with
soiled dishes, the woman herself was unkempt, frowsy, and
dispirited in appearance.
She was also cunning, for, while she seized a broom and stirred
about the accumulation of dust on the floor, she inspected the little
girl with curious, furtive glances.
"You bin stoppin' with the Lucases?" she asked, at last.
She had opened the door, and while she looked one way she
carelessly tried to sweep in another way the pile of rubbish she had
collected.
"Yes, m'am," said 'Tilda Jane, wearily.
"How's Mis' Lucas?"
'Tilda Jane paused to gaze out the open door. Why did not the
woman shut it? And why, when it was so pure and clean without, did
she not feel ashamed to keep so dull and untidy a house? If it were
summer-time, and the ground were brown and green, this dun-
coloured room would not be so bad, but now—the contrast made
her sick.
"How's Mis' Lucas?" repeated her hostess, in a dull voice.
"I don't know," replied 'Tilda Jane.
Mrs. Folcutt poised herself on her broom and with rustic
deliberation weighed the statement just made. Then she said, "She
ain't gone away?"
"I dunno," said 'Tilda Jane, "I never see her in my life."
Here was a puzzle, and Mrs. Folcutt pondered over it in silence,
until the draught of chilly air made her remember to close the door.
"Are we to start soon?" inquired 'Tilda Jane, after a time.
"I ain't a-goin' to take you," said her hostess, unamiably, "it's
Uzziah—Uzziah!" and she went to an open stairway leading from the
kitchen.
"What cher want?" came back, in an impatient tone.
"You're wanted. Passenger for the station."
A boy speedily appeared. 'Tilda Jane was not prepossessed in his
favour as he came lumbering down the staircase, and she was still
less so when he stood before her. He had his mother's sharp face,
lean head, and cunning eyes, and he was so alarmingly dirty that
she found herself wondering whether he had ever touched water to
his face and hands since the winter began.
 "Go hitch up an' take this gal to the station," said his mother, in
feeble command.
He stood scrutinising 'Tilda Jane. "Who fur?"
"Bob Lucas."

"How much'll he gimme?"

"I dunno. He'll pay when he comes out."
"S'pose the warden ketches him?"
"He ain't bin ketched yit."
"He's goin' to—so they say at the post-office."

"I've got fifty cents," said 'Tilda Jane, with dignity. "Here it is," and
she laid it on the table.
The youthful fox snatched at it, and grinned at his mother as he
pocketed it.
"Say—that ain't fair," remarked 'Tilda Jane. "You ain't kerried me
yet."
"She's right," said the more mature fox. "Give it back, Uzzy."

Uzziah unwillingly restored the coin to 'Tilda Jane.

"Now go hitch up," said his mother.
He sidled out of the room and disappeared, and Mrs. Folcutt's
covetous eye wandered over 'Tilda Jane's wearing apparel. "Say,
sissy, that's a pooty fair shawl you took off'n your dog. I always
favour stripes."
 "So do I," replied 'Tilda Jane, and, with a premonition of what was
coming, she turned her head and gazed out the window.
"I guess you might as well square up with us," said the slatternly
woman, seating herself near her caller and speaking in' persuasive
accents, "and then you'll not hev to be beholden to Bob Lucas. It's
jus' as well for a nice little gal like you to hev no dealin's with them
Lucases."

"That shawl ain't mine," said 'Tilda Jane, sharply.

This statement did not seem worth challenging by the woman, for
she went on in the same wheedling voice, "You'll not hev no call for
it on the cars. I kin lend you somethin' for the dog to ride down in.
It's too good for wrappin' him," and she gazed contemptuously at
Gippie.

'Tilda Jane drew in her wandering gaze from the window, and
fixed it desperately on Poacher, who was lying under the stove
winking sadly but amiably at her. Was no one perfect? Lucas hunted
deer, this good dog helped him, his boys were naughty, this woman
was a sloven and a kind of thief, her boy was a rogue, and she
herself—'Tilda Jane was a little runaway girl. "You can have this
tippet," she said, sternly. "That shawl's got to be sent back to where
it comes from."

"Oh, you stole it, did ye?" said the woman, with a sneer. "Well, I
guess we kin hitch up for no thieves," and she got up and moved
deliberately toward the door as if she would recall her son.
'Tilda Jane's nimble fancy ran over possibilities. She had fallen
among sharpers, she must be as sharp as they. Her offensive
manner fell from her. "Look here," she said, bluntly, "I ain't got one
mite o' money but that fifty-cent piece. If your boy'll drive me to
Nicatoos right off, I'll give him that as I said, an' I'll send back the
shawl by him. But if you don't want to do it, speak right up, an' I'll
move on to the next house, and," she continued boldly as she saw
consent on the cunning face, "you've got to give me somethin' to eat
an' drink with it, 'cause I've got two dogs to take care of, an' I don't
want to get to Ciscasset and tumble over from bein' fainty."
Mrs. Folcutt's gray face became illumined by a silly smile. There
was not a shawl like that in the settlement, and bustling to her feet,
she stroked it and felt it with admiring fingers, until admonished by
'Tilda Jane that time was passing, and if she was going to get her
anything to eat she had better be quick about it.
The little girl almost choked over the sloppy tea from the
venerable teapot, the shady bread and butter, and the composite
dish of preserves set before her, yet resolutely shutting her eyes she
ate and drank, and forced Gippie to do the same. Poacher would
touch nothing. "Don't ye know them huntin' dogs eats only once a
day?" said Mrs. Folcutt, contemptuously.
 CHAPTER XIII.
AN ATTEMPTED TRICK.

"How fur are we from Nicatoos?" inquired 'Tilda Jane of her

charioteer one hour later.
"A matter of a mile," he replied, beating his disengaged hand
upon his knees. He was sulky and cold, and 'Tilda Jane averted her
glance from him to his small brown nag, who was trotting along as
cheerfully as if there were a reward at the end of the drive for him.
He was a curious little horse. Surely there never before was one
with such a heavy coat of hair. He looked like a wild animal, and with
gladness of heart she noted his fat sides. The Folcutts might be
mean and untidy, but they certainly were good to this faithful friend,
and her mind went off in puzzled reflection.
She was pursuing the same line of thought of an hour before. No
one was perfect, yet no one was wholly bad. There was good in
everybody and everything. Poacher was a bad dog in some respects,
and she cast a glance at him as he came trotting sleek and
thoughtful behind the sleigh, but what a noble character he was in
other respects! Gippie was a crank, and she pressed closer the small
animal beside her, but he had his good points, and he was certainly
a great comfort to her.
Her heart was much lighter now that she was drawing nearer to
the train that was to take her to Ciscasset, and in raising her little,
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