Critical And Creative

Thinking
Lecture 1 Introduction to Critical Thinking
IMPORTANT NOTICE

There is substantial evidence from research in cognitive psychology and

neuroscience that distraction can negatively affect learning. Distractions interfere
with one’s ability to process and retain information, leading to decreased focus,
reduced comprehension, and impaired memory consolidation.

For this reason, laptops and tablets are strictly prohibited in this class (unless
otherwise instructed).

If your laptop or tablet is visible you will be marked as having an unauthorized

absence from the class. Each unauthorized absence will reduce your overall grade.
Four or more unauthorized absences mean an automatic grade of 0 for the class.

All slides will be made available on Canvas after the class. If you like to take notes,
you may use pen and paper.
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Two Puzzles

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Puzzle 1
Bad news! You have discovered some strange
symptoms; your tongue is covered in blue spots.
Concerned, you immediately visit your doctor
who tells you that these symptoms are
associated with the rare disease X that afflicts
1 in every 100,000 people.

Worse news: every person with disease X gets

blue spots on their tongue. Worse still: only 5%
of people without disease X get blue spots on
their tongue.

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 Please download and install the
Slido app on all computers you use

How likely is it that you have

disease X?

ⓘ Start presenting to display the poll results on this slide. 5

Annual September
Review 3, 20XX
Puzzle 1
We were told that 1 in 100,000 have
disease X.

So, on average, out of 100,000

people, 1 will have disease X and
99,999 will not.

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Puzzle 1
Everyone with disease X has the
symptom (the blue spots).
So whenever there is 1 person with
disease X, that means 1 person with
blue spots (and 0 without blue spots).

But there is a 5% chance of having

blue spots without disease X.
So out of 99,999 people without
disease X, roughly 5000 will have
blue spots and roughly 94,999 will
not have blue spots.
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Puzzle 1
Consider all 5001 people with blue
spots; only 1 has the disease.

So, if you have blue spots, there is

only a 1 in 5001 chance (around a
0.02% chance) you have the disease.

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Puzzle 2
Each card has a number on one side, and a
color on the other side.

Consider this claim: ‘If a card has an even

number on one side, then the opposite side
is red.’

Which cards do you need to turn over to

determine whether this claim is true?
A B C D

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 Please download and install the
Slido app on all computers you use

Which cards do you need to turn

over to determine whether this
claim is true?

ⓘ Start presenting to display the poll results on this slide. 10

Annual September
Review 3, 20XX
Puzzle 2
The claim is that if a card has an even
number on one side, then the opposite
side is red.

We don’t have to check A, because it is an

odd number.

A B C D

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Puzzle 2
The claim is that if a card has an even
number on one side, then the opposite
side is red.

We do have to check B; it is an even

number. If the other side was not red, the
claim would be false.
A B C D

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Puzzle 2
The claim is that if a card has an even
number on one side, then the opposite
side is red.

We don’t have to check C; the claim

doesn’t say that if one side is odd, then the
opposite side isn’t red.
A B C D

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Puzzle 2
The claim is that if a card has an even
number on one side, then the opposite
side is red.

We do have to check D; if D has an even

number, then it would need to be red for
the claim to be true.
A B C D

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Logical Reasoning
The puzzle is called the Wason Selection task, and was introduced by the
psychologist Peter Cathcart Wason in 1966.

Although the question seems simple, studies have shown that only around
10% of people answer the question correctly.

We have seen that probabilistic reasoning and logical reasoning often go

wrong. But why?

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Dual Process Theory
Research in psychology and cognitive science suggests there are two different
kinds of system or process by which we form beliefs.

System 1: Intuitive Processes

Intuitive processes are fast, automatic, and unconscious. We form beliefs on
the basis of intuitive processes without awareness of how or why we formed
these beliefs. Certain answers seem right to us, though we aren’t sure why.

System 2: Conscious Rule Processes

Conscious rule processes are slow, deliberate, and require effort. We form
beliefs on the basis of explicit lines of reasoning that we are aware of. The
answer we arrive at is the conclusion of these lines of reasoning.
Dual Process Theory
Intuitive processes (system 1) are vital to human life. We often need to think
fast, and rely on our intuitions.

But they can also lead us astray. Following intuitive processes

unreflectively often makes people reason incorrectly, as we saw in our two
puzzles.

In critical thinking, we learn conscious rule process (system 2)

techniques, so we don’t reason incorrectly about important topics.
Dual Process Theory

Intuitively, square A and B look like

they are different shades of grey.

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Dual Process Theory

But if we reason more consciously, we

discover they are the same.

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Belief

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Belief
To believe something is to think it is true.

There are different kinds of reasons to believe claims. Some are

pragmatic. For instance, believing you will recover from a disease
can actually help your recovery.

However, the epistemic aim of belief is truth. (‘Epistemic’ means

having to do with knowledge.) We ought (epistemically) to believe
something only if it is likely to be true.

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The Causes of Belief
Many things cause people to hold beliefs, but they can be separated
into two kinds: evidential causes and non-evidential causes.

Definition: Evidence for a claim p is any consideration that makes p

more likely to be true.

The only epistemically good reasons for belief are evidential. If we

want true beliefs, we should base our beliefs on evidence and not
non-evidential causes.

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The Causes of Belief
Emotions can sometimes be evidence for a claim. For example, a
feeling of guilt may be evidence that you have done something wrong
(if your feelings of guilt are not pathological).

Sometimes however, emotional causes of belief are non-evidential:

• We are more likely to believe people we like or feel loyal to.
• If we want something to be true, we are more likely to believe it. If we don’t
want something to be true, we are less likely to believe it. (wishful thinking)
• If the truth of a claim is important to your sense of self or group identity, you
are more likely to believe it.

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The Causes of Belief
In addition, human information processing is often biased. Psychologists and
cognitive scientists have studied a number of cognitive biases, including:

• Social projection: tendency to judge others as similar to oneself

• False consensus: overestimation of the extent to which one’s opinions, beliefs,
etc., are shared
• Bias blind spot: being convinced that mainly others succumb to biased
information processing
• Self-serving bias: attributing one’s failures externally but one’s successes
internally
• In-group bias: seeing one’s own group in a more favorable light than other
groups

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The Causes of Belief
Perhaps the most fundamental cognitive bias is confirmation bias.
Individuals tend to:

• Look for evidence that supports what they already believe (and neglect to look
for information and evidence that disconfirms what they already believe)
• Notice evidence that supports what they already believe (and fail to notice
evidence that disconfirms what they already believe)
• Give more weight to evidence that supports what they already believe (and
give less weight to evidence that disconfirms what they already to believe).

It is relatively easy to notice other people exhibiting confirmation bias. But,

importantly, confirmation bias affects all of us: including you!

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The Causes of Belief
There are many reasons to care about truth and evidence (and so to try to
believe things only for evidential reasons).

If you care about achieving your goals, you ought to want true beliefs about
those goals. For example, if you care about being healthy, you ought to want
true beliefs about what makes you healthy.

Recognizing the difference between evidential and non-evidential causes of

belief is a way to protect yourself from manipulation (for example from
manipulative individuals or institutions that want you to believe certain
things).

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The Causes of Belief
Training in correct conscious rule processes (system 2) is a necessary part of
avoiding cognitive biases and other misleading heuristics (i.e. typically
unconscious reasoning methods).

As the course progresses we will learn a number of different conscious rule

processes that help us to reason in clearer and less biased ways. This will
help us to identify and accurately assess evidence.

Later in this lecture we will introduce two fundamental conscious rule

techniques: converting arguments into standard form, and producing
argument maps.

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Activity
The goal of advertising is to convince people to
buy products by convincing them to believe
certain claims.
• What are the main differences between
advert 1 and advert 2?
• What are the causes of belief given by advert
1? Are they evidential or non-evidential (or
both)?
• What are the causes of belief given by advert
2? Are they evidential or non-evidential (or
both)?

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Activity
The goal of advertising is to convince people to
buy products by convincing them to believe
certain claims.
• What are the main differences between
advert 1 and advert 2?
• What are the causes of belief given by advert
1? Are they evidential or non-evidential (or
both)?
• What are the causes of belief given by advert
2? Are they evidential or non-evidential (or
both)?

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Arguments and
Evidence

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Arguments
In critical thinking, an argument is not a verbal fight.

Definition: an argument is a set of statements consisting of one or more premises and a

conclusion.

The conclusion of an argument is the statement the argument is intended to establish (as
true, or probably true).

The premises of an argument are the statements offered as evidence for the conclusion.

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Arguments
Here is an example of an argument:

Minh will take the Critical Thinking course. He needs to take either Critical Thinking or Logic to
fulfil his VinCore requirements, and he won’t take Logic.

Notice that arguments are different from explanations. Imagine someone explained:

I’m taking Critical Thinking. I need to take Critical Thinking or Logic to fulfil my VinCore
requirements, and I don’t plan to take Logic.

In an argument, premises are presented as evidence for a conclusion. In the explanation, it

is assumed that the claim ‘I’m taking Critical Thinking’ is true. The other claims aren’t
presented as evidence that this is true, but as an explanation of why it is true.

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Arguments: Standard Form
In critical thinking, it is helpful to present (and think about) arguments in standard form.

An argument in standard form has numbered premises P1, P2, etc. followed by the
conclusion labelled ‘C’. For example:

P1) Minh needs to take either Critical Thinking or Logic.

P2) Minh will not take Logic.
C) Minh will take Critical Thinking

Making arguments explicit in standard form is an important first step to evaluating

arguments. We can know if an argument is strong or weak only if we understand clearly
what its premises and conclusion are.

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Arguments: Argument Maps
It can also be helpful to present an argument as an argument map, showing how evidence
‘flows’ from the premises to the conclusion. For example:

Minh will take Critical

Thinking
(CONCLUSION)

Minh needs to take Minh will not take logic.

either critical thinking or (PREMISE)
logic. (PREMISE)

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Arguments
Here is another example of an argument:

Minh will take the Critical Thinking course. He likes debating people, his friends are taking the
course, and he’s good at analytical thinking.

Again, we can see the structure of the argument more explicitly in standard form:

P1) Minh likes debating people.

P2) Minh’s friends are taking the Critical Thinking course.
P3) Minh is good at analytical thinking.
C) Minh will take the Critical Thinking course.

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Arguments
Or as an argument map:

Minh will take Critical

Thinking
(CONCLUSION)

Minh likes debating Minh’s friends are taking Minh is good at

people (PREMISE) Critical Thinking analytical thinking
(PREMISE) (PREMISE)

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Argument Maps
Notice that these argument maps have a different structure.

This argument map links two premises This argument map shows that each
and shows that together they provide premise individually provides some
support/evidence for the conclusion. support/evidence for the conclusion.

Minh will take

Minh will take Critical Thinking
Critical Thinking (CONCLUSION)
(CONCLUSION)

Minh needs to take Minh will not take

either critical logic. (PREMISE) Minh likes debating Minh’s friends are Minh is good at
thinking or logic. people (PREMISE) taking Critical analytical thinking
(PREMISE) Thinking (PREMISE)
(PREMISE)
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Argument Maps
Notice that these argument maps have a different structure.

Arguments of this form have a linked- Arguments of this form have an

premise structure. independent-premise structure.

(CONCLUSION)

(CONCLUSION)

(PREMISE) (PREMISE)
(PREMISE) (PREMISE) (PREMISE)

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Argument Maps
The difference between linked-premise structure and independent-premise structure
arguments is important.

For example, if one premise in a linked-premise argument is false, the argument is undercut: the
premises do not provide evidence for the conclusion.

But if one premise in an independent-premise argument is false, the argument is weakened, but
not completely undercut: the remaining premises still provide some evidence for the
conclusion.
(CONCLUSION)
(CONCLUSION)

(PREMISE) (PREMISE)
(PREMISE) (PREMISE) (PREMISE)

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Activity
On your table you have been given some
examples of short arguments for claims.

Convert the arguments into standard form,

or argument maps, then place them in
order from the most to the least
convincing.

Be prepared to explain your reasoning

back to the class.

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