MD Power of Trading
MD Power of Trading
1. Forexfactory.com
Go to Calendar, then go to top right corner (Filter) and select your
country for news.
3. Marketwatch.com
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Now we know when the news occurs, and the types of news we should be
interested in. What happens during the news events, is that the traders
throughout the world are waiting for the numbers, especially banks, fund
managers and all the big players. If the report comes out negatively or the
Fed Chairman is about to cut interest rates, then the market will move big
and becomes confused and in disarray, and to trade in this market
environment would be insanity. No one knows which way the market will
move and how fast, or how far. Therefore, it is advisable to stay away
from the market at these times.
IMPORTANT: Do not trade the market during news events! You will
lose money very fast, and it is an unnecessary risk.
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1. Buy at each HL when it comes after HH and Black Candle Must be
at HL to the upside , In side or above Green large Trigger lines.
Exception: Can buy at each HL when it comes after LH, but the
Black Candle must be at the HL to the upside . Buy as low as
possible at the low of the Blue Bar. This is the first sign that the trend
may change to the upside .
2. Sell at each LH when it comes after LL and the Black Candle Must
be at LH to the downside , In side or below Magenta Large
Trigger lines. Exception: Can sell at LH when it comes after HL,
but the Black Candle must be at the LH to the downside . Sell as
high as possible at the top of the Red Bar. This is the first sign that
the trend may change to the downside .
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NASDAQ, S&P-500, DOW & Russell-2000
Following values show how they are related to each other:
NASDAQ
a) One Lot = $500
b) One Pip = $5 (Percentage in Price)
c) One Point = 4 Pips
d) One Point = $20
Russell-2000
a) One Lot = $500
b) One Pip = $5
c) One Point = 10 Pips
d) One Point = $50
Commission Charges:
One-lot commission charges for either BUYING/SELLING, or
SELLING/BUYING is between $4.00 and $6.00.
Trading Hours:
Night Sessions (NS) Timings: 12:00am to 09:30am
Day Sessions (DS) Timings: 09:30am to 04:15pm
Night Session Low (NSL)
Night Session High (NSH)
High and Low between 12:00am to 09:30am
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Ground Rules:
Discipline:
Before starting to trade, keep yourself fresh. Read the news and when in
doubt, stay out of the market. Cut your losses as quickly as possible.
Winners always recognize when they were wrong and act right away.
Losers try to rationalize and tend to forget what they really wanted. Learn
from your mistakes and have faith in what you have learned. Traders who
have the discipline and patience to strictly follow the rules of trading, can
increase their chances of success even in a very competitive market.
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Focus:
Focus on the charts and don’t guess. Have confidence in your ability
to act. Take full responsibility for your own trades. Understand and
analyze how market works.
Patience:
Have self-control and study the psychology of trading. Learn how to
deal with your emotions. You may win some and may lose some
trades, but stay in the game. The next trades could be the big ones
that will make up for all those small losses for you.
Avoid fear of losing or entering into the market. Do not become
greedy, once you have reached to profit target, exit/close the trade.
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Pivot Points Formulae:
a) Resistance 3 (R3) = High + 2 (PP – Low)
b) Resistance 2 (R2) = PP + (High – Low)
c) Resistance 1 (R1) = (2 x PP) – Low
d) Pivot Point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
e) Support 1 (S1) = (2 x PP) – High
f) Support 2 (S2) = PP – (High – Low)
g) Support 3 (S3) = Low – 2 (High – PP)
How to Apply;
By having the previous day’s High, Low & Close, you can end up with 7
points i.e. 3 resistance levels, 3 support levels and the actual pivot point.
If market opens above the pivot point, then base for the day is for long
trades as long as the price remains above the pivot point. If market opens
below the pivot point, then base for the day is for short trades as long as
the market remains below the pivot point. The three most important pivot
points are R1, S1 and the actual pivot point, and most of the time market
will remain in this area.
The general idea behind the pivot points is to look for reversal or break of
R1 or S1. By the time market reaches R2, R3 or S2, S3 the market will be
already being overbought or oversold, and these level should be used for
exits rather than entries. A perfect setup would be for market to open
above the pivot level and then stall slightly at R1 and then go on to R2.
You would enter on a break of R1 with the target of R2 and if the market
is really strong, close half at R2 and R3, with reminder (NO BUYING AT
R3 AREA) as well as in the opposite direction.
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R3 ________________________________
R2 ________________________________
R1 ________________________________
S2 ________________________________
S3 ________________________________
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Most Common Mistakes Traders Make & Should be Avoided:
a) Letting Your Losses Mount
b) Failure to Implement Stop-Loss Orders
c) Not Having a Trading Plan or Sticking to Only One Plan
d) Averaging Down or Up to Redeem a Losing Position
e) Excessive Leverage
f) Trading Too Frequently
g) Following the Herd
h) Not Doing Your Homework
i) Trading Multiple Markets
j) Overconfidence or Excessive Pride
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Critical Time Zones:
There are 14 time periods we need to be concerned with. Let’s go through
them from the open of the market:
1. The Open - 9:30am – 9:50am (EST) - Red Zone:
This is the most dangerous time period for most except the
experienced day-traders. The first 20 or 30 minutes can be very
profitable but is the most dangerous time for novice speculators.
Volatility creates the largest profits and also increases your risk
substantially. It takes about 20 minutes for the market to settle down.
However please note that there is no time zone, which is risk free.
Pay close attention to any news or Fed reports before and after the
market opens. You would do well not to trade during this time period
unless you practice, practice and practice. The red zone does not
mean down or up, it means to be extra careful.
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3. Now is the time - 10:10am – 10:25am (EST) - Green Zone:
This is the time to really focus on what the market is trying to tell
you. This can be one of the safest times to trade, coming off from a
pullback or a reverse or maybe just continuing in the same direction.
Keep your eye on the Dow and NASDAQ here. Look for the market
to move in the opposite direction of the open. The green zone is a
little more predictable and if prices move higher at the open it often
reverses during ten o’clock and continues down during this time
period. This presents a low-risk trade to the up side, so go with the
flow, and wait for the turn. The green zone does not mean up or
down, it is just one of the safest time frames to trade.
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6. Time Out 11:15am – 2:15pm (EST) - Red Zone:
This period is when midday doldrums occur. As you approach 12:00
o’clock, if the trend is moving down it may just move up and vice
versa. Many experienced traders call this the 12:00 o’clock hop or
flop. It’s lunch hour for most traders on the floor, and volume falls
off and it may form a channel or just move sideways during this time
period. Inconsistencies follow through and the locals scalp the
market and eat you for lunch. You are advised not to trade during the
doldrums period. Only the most experienced should venture a trade
during this period. Pay attention to the next time period because it
lies in the red zone. Remember the red zone does not mean up or
down, it means to be extra careful. Especially during the doldrums
when most losses occur.
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9. Time to catch the train - 3:00pm – 3:10pm EST a yellow zone.
After the bond market closes, they move the market, so look for a
reversal or spikes. It’s not uncommon to have news or reports around
this time. If it does reverse here, look for the turn, and try to catch
the train going north or south; it could be significant, but use caution,
be on your toes here. If you don’t buy the ticket you can’t catch the
train. Remember the yellow zone is time for the market to stall,
pullback, or reverse.
10. Time, and time again - 3:10pm – 3:25pm (EST) - Green Zone:
The market starts to calm down between two significant reversal
times periods, so give it your best shot. If the trend is up, trade with
the trend and vice versa. Use a safe strategy not a power trade.
Remember the green zone does not mean up or down; just one of the
safest time frames to trade.
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13. Time to settle down - 3:40 – 3:45 EST a yellow zone.
It’s time for that last reverse as brokers, speculators, market makers,
and specialists are settling trades for the day. It moves the market in
funny ways; so you just go with the flow. If you see what the market
is trying to do, look for the strategy to take advantage of it.
Remember the yellow zone is time for the market to stall, pullback,
or reverse.
14. Where did the time go - 3:45 – 4:00 EST a green zone.
This time period reminds us of the 12 o’clock hop or flop. If the
market was moving down in the afternoon session, you can look for
a hop, mainly caused by speculators covering their short positions,
and vice versa if the market was moving to the up side. Don’t try to
stay in the market in the last few minutes. Do not get caught in having
trade move to an overnight position; you may get a margin call.
Remember the green zone does not mean up or down.
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Important Note: Never trade between lunches times i.e.
11:15am to 2:15pm (EST)
Red Zones
09:30am - 09:50am
11:15am - 02:15pm
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Software
Table of Contents
1. Areas
a) Pivot Points.......................................................................................
b) Outer Band and Mid-band…............................................................
c) Trigger Lines….............................................................................
d) Value Area……………………………………………………...
3. Bar Patterns
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1. Areas
a) Pivot Points - This is a well-known method used by big traders
and market makers throughout the world. This system has been
around for a long time, and still in use today. Pivot Points are used
to calculate intraday Support and Resistance levels. The areas are
calculated from the previous day’s high, low, and close.
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b) Midband and Outer Bands (T-Bands) - These areas act as
Support and Resistance for exits, as well as areas for entries.
Especially Upper and Lower bands act as overbought and oversold
areas. The Midband change colors automatically after the
conformation of supply and demand.
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c) Trigger Lines – There are two sets of Trigger Lines, large and
small. The Large Trigger Lines represent 3 things. the overall trend
of the market, cross up in GREEN trending up, cross down in
MAGENTA trending down, They Provide information about the
power and strength of the trend when they are wide and having a gap.
And they also provide Support and Resistance areas that you will be
able to pick your transactions.
Represent 3 things
Conclusion
Angle and separation.
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Small Trigger Lines represent the immediate expected direction or trend
of the market and are used as one of entry and exit indicators.
1. STRENGTH & MOMENTUM – When the price bars are
pulling away from the Trigger Lines that spread apart from each other
shows strength and momentum of the market.
2. LOSS OF MOMENTUM / WEAKENING TREND - When
the price action is inside the Trigger Lines, which stop to spread apart
shows, the loss of momentum or an indication of the market to slow
down. This is the first sign that trend is weakening.
3. POTENTIAL FOR THE TREND TO CHANGE - When the
price action is below or above the Trigger Lines, begins to show the
potential to roll, cross, change color and reverse its direction when the
price closes on the opposite side.
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2. Super MACD BB Lines
Developed by Gerald Appel in late seventies, the “Moving Average
Convergence/Divergence” MACD or Mac-D are the most commonly used
indicators that offer insight into the market’s strength or weakness. It is
used to spot changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration
of a trend in Market prices. MACD Lines provide information about the
current market, and its expected outcome for the near future. It is an
invaluable tool.
The concept behind MACD is that it calculates the difference between a
26-day and a 12-day “Exponential Moving Average” or EMA and a line
is plotted against a straight line commonly known as zero line. When their
difference is zero, the plotted line touches zero line, and when the
difference is positive, the plotted line is above the zero line and vice versa.
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MACD BB Lines
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The basic MACD trading rule is to SELL when Red Dots falls below the
Blue line. Similarly, a BUY signal occurs when Green Dots rise above the
Red line. It is more beneficial to Buy/Sell when the MACD goes
Above/Below the Zero Line.
b) MACD Strength - When MACD BB dots move outside of the
BB Lines, it indicates that the market has a lot of momentum.
Generally, it continues in the same direction. If in a position, this
helps to remain patient to maximize the profits. If waiting to enter
into a new position, this helps to stay away from getting in the market
too early.
Bearish Strength
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Bullish Strength
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c) MACD BB Trend - When the MACD BBs cross the upper
Bollinger Band, the MACD trend is up. When the MACD BBs cross
the lower Bollinger Band, the MACD trend is down.
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d) Bollinger Bands Acting as Support and Resistance - This
is expected after a strong move in the MACD BB Lines, and it is
followed by a Retracement to the opposite Bollinger Band. It will
seem as though the BBs are sliding along the Bollinger Bands. RED
line act as Resistance and BLUE line act as Support.
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Bollinger Band act as Support
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e) Zero Line Rejection (ZLR) - A Zero Line Rejection occurs when
MACD BB lines reach the Zero line and begin to turn. At this point, the
trend continues. If the MACD BB Lines cross the Zero Line, then trend
changes.
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Zero Line Rejection to the Upside
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f) Divergence Between Highs and Lows – An indication that an end
to the current trend may be near occurs when the MACD diverges from
the symbol. Divergence shows the potential that the trend of the market
may change. A simple way to indicate this is when Small Triggers change
colors in the trend.
Five basics of divergence and the expected outcome for the key areas:
1. Bearish Divergence occurs when there are higher prices and lower
MACDs from previous high. Reversal is expected but resistance may
hold. In other words, Bearish Divergence occurs when the MACD is
making new lows while prices fail to reach new lows.
2. The market is TRENDING UP when there are higher prices and
higher MACDs. No reversal is expected but resistance may break.
3. Bullish Divergence occurs when there are lower prices and higher
MACDs from previous low. Reversal is expected but support may hold.
In other words, Bullish Divergence occurs when the MACD is making
new high while prices fail to reach new high.
4. The market is TRENDING DOWN when there are lower prices and
lower MACDs. No reversal is expected but support may break.
5. When closing past a Divergence high or low, it shows the trend may
continue. Both of these divergences are most significant when they occur
at relatively overbought/oversold levels.
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When the MACDs and the Price go in opposite directions, they create a
Divergence between the two, if at an area it is expected to hold. With
Bullish Divergence at an area of support, the area has the potential to hold.
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With Bearish Divergence at an area of Resistance, the area has the
potential to hold.
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h) Super Divergence - This occurs when there is a normal
divergence, but at the same time the MACDs do not break the
opposite Bollinger Band. Super Divergence may only be
considered at key areas. The higher the time frame, the larger is
the reversal.
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There is divergence at support, but at the same time the MACD BBs
do not violate the opposite Bollinger Band. Super divergence may
only be considered at key areas.
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i) Retracement Divergence – At key areas, compare the swings
between the price and the MACDs. Retracement Divergence is
defined as, less than a 38% retracement in the MACDs, and at least
50% retracement in price. This Divergence is showing that the area
is anticipated to hold.
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WPI Strength
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3. Bar Patterns
a) Reversal Bar Pattern:
These are the simple rules to recognize a reversal bar pattern.
1. When looking for a Reversal Bar, price must make a higher high or
lower low than the previous bar and close better then prior bar.
a) Higher high and close lower (black dot) for a short pattern.
b) Lower low and close higher (white dot) for a long pattern.
2. The next bar must close better than the prior bar.
a) Close lower (black dot) for a short pattern.
b) Close higher (white dot) for a long pattern.
3. The third bar does not exceed the reversal bar and closes better then
reversal bar. 3 black dots for a short pattern and 3 white dots for a long
pattern.
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Trading Rules
1. Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a
new low. There’s always a crowd that missed the first boat.
2. Buy at support. Sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and
they are all just waiting to jump in the pool.
3. Don’t chase momentum if you can’t find the exit. Assume the market
will reverse the minute you get in. If it’s a long way to the door, you are
in big trouble.
5. Trade with the TICK and never against it. Don’t try to be a hero. Go
with the money flow.
6. Sell the second high, and buy the second low. After sharp pullbacks,
the first test of any high or low always runs into resistance. Look for the
break on the third or fourth try.
9. Price has a memory. Know what did the price do the last time it hit
a certain level.
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10. Trend never turns on a dime. Reversals build slowly after the first
sharp dip.
11. Always find buyers and the first sharp rise always find sellers.
12. Bottoms take longer to form than tops. Greed acts more quickly
than fear and causes market to drop from their own weight.
13. Beat the crowd in and out the door. You have to take their money
before they take yours.
4. Trade for a profit. So how do we enter the market at just the right
time and capture the big moves we see on our charts?
5. Here are some rules for effective trade execution. Try these out the
Next time you’re getting ready to pull the trigger.
6. Seek favorable conditions for trade entry. Or stay out of the market
until they appear. Bad execution ruins a perfect setup.
7. Watch the tape before you trade. Look for evidence to confirm your
opinion, time, crowd and trend must support the reversal, breakout or
fade you’re expecting to happen.
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8. Choose to execute or to stand aside. Staying out of the market is an
aggressive way to trade. All opportunities carry risk, and even perfect
setup lead to very bad positions.
9. Filter the trade through your personal plan. Ditch it if it doesn’t meet
your risk tolerance.
10. Stay on the sidelines and wait for the opportunity to develop.
There is a perfect moment you’re trying to trade.
11. Decide how long you want to be in the market before you
execute. Don’t day trade an investment or invest in a swing trade.
12. Take positions with the market flow, & not against it. It’s more fun
to surf the waves than to get eaten by the sharks.
13. Stand apart from the crowd. Its emotions often signal opportunity
in the opposite direction. Profit rarely and follows the herd.
14. Maintain an open mind and let the market show its hand before you
trade it.
15. Keep your hands off the keyboard until you’re ready to act. Don’t
trust your fingers until they move faster than your brain, but still hit the
right notes.
16. Stand aside when confusion reigns and the crowd lacks direction.
17. Lower your position size until you show a track record. Work
methodically through each analysis, and never be in a hurry.
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19. Step in front of the crowd on pullbacks and stand behind them on
breakouts. Be ready to move against them when conditions favor a
reversal.
20. Find the breaking point where the crowd give up or show
exuberance. Then execute the trade just before they do.
21. Use market orders to get on fast when you can watch the market.
22. Place limit orders when you have a life outside of the markets.
23. Buy at each HL when it comes after HH and Black Candle Must be
at HL to the upside . Exception: Can buy at each HL when it
comes after LH, but the Black Candle must be at the HL to the upside
. Buy as low as possible at the low of the Blue Bar. This is the first
sign that the trend may change to the upside .
24. Sell at each LH when it comes after LL and the Black Candle Must
be at LH to the downside . Exception: Can sell at each LH when
it comes after HL, but the Black Candle must be at the LH to the
downside . Sell as high as possible at the top of the Red Bar. This
is the first sign that the trend may change to the downside .
25. Never buy at LL except when it reaches at the expected low of the
day and black candle and the trend is to the upside.
26. Never sell at HH except it reaches at the expected high of the day
and black candle and the trend is to the downside.
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