Corporates

CREDIT OPINION Heineken N.V.

20 November 2024
Update to credit analysis
Update Summary
Heineken N.V.'s A3 rating reflects the company's conservative financial policy, the flexibility
provided by its stable and strong free cash flow, and its resilience to economic cycles.
The rating remains supported by the company's strong market position as the second-
largest brewer globally, its sound innovation capabilities and the largest in Europe; its solid
portfolio of brands and strong geographical diversification; and the positive fundamentals
RATINGS of the beverage industry, which support long-term profitability growth because of ongoing
Heineken N.V. premiumisation.
Domicile Amsterdam,
Netherlands The contraction in consumer spending following the commodity price inflation since 2022
Long Term Rating A3 and the soft trading conditions in a number of emerging markets are resulting in modest
Type LT Issuer Rating - Dom
Curr volume growth. However, the company's operating profit continues to be supported by its
Outlook Stable improving mix and the pass-through of higher prices in 2023, although higher costs resulted
in somewhat lower operating margins. We expect recovery in operating margin over the next
Please see the ratings section at the end of this report 12-18 months, with financial leverage remaining around 3.0x on a sustained basis (see Exhibit
for more information. The ratings and outlook shown
reflect information as of the publication date. 1).

Heineken's rating is constrained by its exposure to performance volatility in emerging

markets, the low-growth environment in developed markets and its continued appetite for
Contacts bolt-on acquisitions. The company's profitability also remains below that of some of its
Paolo Leschiutta +39.02.9148.1140 peers.
Senior Vice President
[email protected]
Exhibit 1
Nour Ghachem +39.291.481.980 Heineken's leverage metrics will remain at around 3.0x over the next 12-18 months
Ratings Associate Evolution of Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA
[email protected]
Debt / EBITDA Upgrade factor Downgrade factor
Simone Zampa +39.02.9148.1989 6.0x
Associate Managing Director
[email protected]
5.0x

4.0x

3.0x

2.0x

1.0x
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 LTM Jun-24 2024F 2025F

All figures and ratios are based on adjusted financial data and incorporate Moody’s Global Standard Adjustments for Non-
Financial Corporations. Periods are financial year-end unless indicated. LTM = Last 12 months. Moody’s forecasts are Moody’s
opinion and do not represent the views of the issuer.
Sources: Moody's Financial Metrics™ and Moody's Ratings forecasts
 Moody's Ratings Corporates

Credit strengths
» Strong fundamentals of the beverage industry, with ongoing premiumisation supporting profit growth

» Status as the second-largest brewer globally

» Diversified geographical footprint and strong product portfolio

» Strong cash flow generation and conservative financial policy

Credit challenges
» Generally soft consumer spending, which results in temporary weakness in volumes sold

» Low-growth environment in developed markets and exposure to performance volatility in emerging markets

» Financial leverage unlikely to reduce significantly in light of the company's appetite for acquisitions

» Structurally lower profitability than that of some of its peers

Rating outlook
The stable outlook on the rating reflects our expectation that Heineken's profit and cash generation will be resilient to the current soft
operating environment and consumer spending, and that the company will use levers at its disposal to mitigate potential earnings
pressure and keep leverage within its comfort zone. The stable outlook also reflects our expectation that in the event of a large debt-
financed acquisition, the company could temporarily exceed its leverage target, but it will get back to its target within a reasonable
time frame.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade

Upward momentum on the rating is unlikely in light of the company's well-defined financial policy that targets reported net debt/
EBITDA (before exceptional items, interest and amortisation [BEIA] — as defined by the company) of 2.5x. However, over time, upward
rating momentum could develop if Heineken continues to strengthen its business profile and grow its revenue and EBITDA, leading to
improved metrics such as Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA reducing below 2.75x and retained cash flow/net debt increasing towards the
mid-20s in percentage terms.

Factors that could lead to a downgrade

Downward rating pressure could arise if Heineken is unable to maintain its financial profile as a result of a deterioration in its operating
performance, significant debt-funded acquisitions or a change in its financial policy. Quantitatively, Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA
sustained well above 3.25x and retained cash flow/net debt below 18%, both for a prolonged period, could lead to downward pressure
on the rating. The rating could tolerate a temporary deviation in quantitative metrics in case of a large debt-funded acquisition.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the issuer/deal page on https://ratings.moodys.com for the
most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 20 November 2024 Heineken N.V.: Update to credit analysis

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Key indicators
Exhibit 2
Heineken N.V.
(in € billions) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 LTM Jun-24 2024F 2025F
Revenue 24.0 19.7 21.9 28.7 30.4 30.7 30.4 30.5
EBITDA Margin % 23.9% 18.0% 24.0% 22.0% 18.8% 19.5% 20.9% 21.0%
EBITA Margin % 17.7% 10.1% 17.1% 16.6% 13.1% 13.4% 14.1% 14.2%
FCF / Debt 4.6% 2.9% 8.9% 6.7% 0.4% 7.3% 3.7% 5.6%
RCF / Net Debt 19.3% 14.4% 21.0% 26.4% 20.4% 22.0% 25.9% 26.2%
Debt / EBITDA 3.2x 5.4x 3.3x 2.7x 3.3x 3.2x 2.9x 2.8x
EBITA / Interest Expense 7.3x 3.7x 7.7x 9.5x 5.9x 5.6x 7.1x 7.7x
EBIT / Interest Expense 6.6x 3.0x 6.7x 8.6x 5.3x 5.1x 5.6x 6.1x
All figures and ratios are based on adjusted financial data and incorporate Moody’s Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations. Periods are financial year-end unless
indicated. LTM = Last 12 months. Moody’s forecasts are Moody’s opinion and do not represent the views of the issuer.
Sources: Moody's Financial Metrics™ and Moody's Ratings forecasts

Profile
Headquartered in Amsterdam, Heineken N.V. is the world's second-largest brewer by revenue, with total consolidated net revenue
(BEIA) of €30.3 billion in 2023 (€28.7 billion in 2022) and a company-reported operating profit (BEIA) of €4.4 billion (€4.5 billion in
2022). Its net revenue BEIA was €22.5 billion for the nine months that ended September 2024. Heineken is Europe's largest distributor
of beer, with its brand name present in more than 190 countries worldwide. The company brewed 243 million hectolitres of beer in
2023 and 180 million hectolitres in the nine months that ended September 2024, and distributes more than 350 brands.

Controlled by the Heineken family through Heineken Holding N.V., Heineken is a publicly listed company, with a market capitalisation
of around €42.5 billion as of the beginning of November 2024. Since May 2023, FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., which previously indirectly
owned 14.76% of Heineken, sold all its ownership in Heineken, and as of September 2024, about 49.995% of Heineken was owned by
public shareholders.

Detailed credit considerations

Soft consumer spending is straining Heineken's volumes; premiumisation and benefits from higher prices are supporting
profit
The higher prices that followed the spike in commodity prices in 2022 and 2023, and the general slowdown in macroeconomic growth,
particularly in a number of important emerging markets, are resulting in softer volumes for Heineken, with beer volumes sold down
4.7% organically in 2023 and recovering only gradually, up 1.6%, over the nine months to September 2024.

Despite this, operating profit grew organically by 1.7% in 2023 and by 12.5% over the six months to June 2024, demonstrating the
company's ability to pass on higher prices and to focus on cost savings through its EverGreen strategy and a gradual recovery in
premiumisation. In this respect, volume of premium beer and Heineken brand in particular grew by 5.1% and 9.2% respectively, during
the first half of 2024. Reported operating profit growth (down 4.3% in June 2024), however, was affected by a number of one-off items
including a large impairment of the Chinese assets and adverse foreign-exchange movements.

We expect pressure on volumes to ease over the next 12-18 months as consumers get used to the general higher cost of living,
while the higher prices passed on by Heineken — together with some softening in some input costs and additional savings from its
productivity savings programme — will allow operating profit to recover next year. The beverage industry usually remains stable even
during economic crises, while its long-term fundamentals remain solid with increasing consumption and ongoing premiumisation.
Consumer product companies are generally able to pass to consumers higher costs or offset those with cost-efficiency or cost-
reduction measures, such as decreased spending for advertising and promotion, if necessary. In addition, input cost hedges delay the
strain on profit from rising costs, thereby allowing greater flexibility to negotiate with key customers.

Heineken's presence in emerging markets leads to higher-than-average growth in both volume and sales, driven by the growing
consumption of premium products, and supported by favourable demographics and increasing disposable income. However, the
presence in emerging markets, including Nigeria, Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil and South Africa, exposes the company to more volatile
market conditions and less predictable regulatory environments. In addition, weak emerging market currencies can have a negative
translational impact on Heineken's earnings.

3 20 November 2024 Heineken N.V.: Update to credit analysis

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However, the company benefits from a more stable but lower-growth environment in developed markets. Competition in these regions
is strong, which, combined with low inflation, offers modest potential for price increases, outside of the current commodity price
inflation.

Leading brewing company, with broad geographical diversification

With net revenue (BEIA) of €30.3 billion (or $32.8 billion) in 2023, Heineken is the second-largest brewery in the world, as shown in
Exhibit 3. Heineken is far behind the market leader, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI, A3 stable), but is more than twice as large as
the third- and fourth-largest companies, Carlsberg Breweries A/S (Baa1 stable) and Molson Coors Beverage Company (Baa1 stable).
Exhibit 3 Exhibit 4
Heineken is the second-largest brewer globally, after ABI Heineken has the second-largest global market share, after ABI
2023 revenue 2023 market share by total volume
60%
ABI (A3, Sta)
50%
Heineken (A3, Sta)
40%

Market Share
Carlsberg (Baa1, Sta) 30%

Molson Coors (Baa1, 20%

Sta)
10%
Thai Bev (Baa3, Sta)
0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 ABI Heineken Carlsberg Molson Coors Thai Bev Other
(A3, Sta) (A3, Sta) (Baa1, Sta) (Baa1, Sta) (Baa3, Sta)
$ billions

Source: Euromonitor
Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Heineken is the largest brewer in Europe, and the second largest in Africa, Eastern Europe and Latin America (although a distant second
after ABI in Latin America). Over the years, the group has expanded into developing markets, and it currently has a wider geographical
scope than most of its competitors (see Exhibit 5). However, the company has some concentration in Europe, with 39.3% of its 2023
net revenue (BEIA) coming from that market.

Exhibit 5
Heineken has a wider geographical scope than that of most of its competitors
2023 revenue split by region
Western Europe The Americas Asia Pacific Africa, Middle East and Eastern Europe
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Heineken (A3, Sta) Carlsberg (Baa1, Sta) ABI (A3, Sta)

The regions presented above differ from the companies' definition and have been simplified for comparative purposes. For Heineken, Western Europe is all of Europe, excluding Russia. The
Americas includes North, South and Middle America for ABI. Europe includes EMEA for ABI.
Source: Company information

Strong product portfolio, with significant contribution from the premium segment and growing contribution from low and
no alcohol products
Heineken benefits from a solid portfolio of beer brands. The company's strong international brands in the premium segment include
its best-selling brand Heineken®, which is complemented by Amstel, Sol, Tiger, Birra Moretti, Edelweiss and Desperados. We
also recognise the sound innovation capabilities of the company with growing presence in non-traditional beer segments. Along
with premium beers, its portfolio includes local/international craft brands (Lagunitas, Affligem and Mort Subite), ciders (Bulmer,

4 20 November 2024 Heineken N.V.: Update to credit analysis

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Strongbow, Old Mout, Stassen and Orchard), and a range of low- or zero-alcohol products (which include Heineken 0.0). According to
Euromonitor, excluding Chinese beer companies, Heineken has two brands in the top 15 global brands in terms of volumes sold and has
the largest non-alcoholic brand by volume.

Although results since 2020 are not fully comparable with those of prior years because of the coronavirus pandemic-induced
disruptions and the additional volatility caused by the spike in commodity prices, Heineken's profitability remains below that of ABI.
The gap is mainly because of structural differences in certain markets, especially in Europe, where local characteristics and particular
distribution arrangements can result in a difference in profitability. ABI's superior margins reflect its dominant positions in the US (the
world's largest and most profitable beer market) and the Americas, which allow for superior returns because of indirect distribution
systems, and through pricing power and economies of scale.

Heineken's profitability suffered significantly as a result of the pandemic because of its greater reliance than peers on the on-trade
channel. It also recovered quickly in 2021 and is now close to the pre-pandemic level, and we expect further, although limited,
improvement over the next 12-18 months.
Exhibit 6 Exhibit 7
Heineken's leverage recovered in 2022 and is at the better end of Heineken's EBITA margin was hit the most, but recovered quickly
the range among peers and is back in line with that of most of its competitors
Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA EBITA margin
Thai Bev (Baa3) Carlsberg (Baa1) Molson Coors (Baa1) Thai Bev (Baa3) Carlsberg (Baa1) Molson Coors (Baa1)
Heineken (A3) ABI (A3) Kirin (Baa1)
Heineken (A3) ABI (A3) Kirin (Baa1)
6x 35%

5x 30%

25%
4x
20%
3x
15%
2x
10%

1x 5%

0x 0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods are financial year-end unless indicated. Thai Bev's financial year ends on 30 Periods are financial year-end unless indicated. Thai Bev's financial year ends on 30
September. September.
Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™ Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Credit metrics within boundaries allowed by the rating; strong cash generation and prudent financial policy compensate for
acquisition appetite
We expect Heineken's key credit metrics to improve slightly over the next 12-18 months, remaining supportive of the current rating.
Following the steep deterioration in 2020, Heineken's credit metrics recovered significantly in 2021, and surpassed the pre-pandemic
level in 2022. Credit metrics deteriorated moderately in 2023 due to a combination of significant investments in both marketing and
acquisitions, and pressure on profit because of weaker selling volumes and higher input costs. As of June 2024, key ratios improved
compared with December 2023, and we expect some further strengthening into next year. Overall, we expect key credit metrics to
remain in line with the level required to maintain the current rating. The company's Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA was 3.2x as
of the 12 months that ended June 2024, and we expect this to reduce below 3.0x by next year.

The rating is also supported by the company's strong cash generation and prudent financial policy. In this respect, the company's
commitment to maintaining its long-term target of net debt/EBITDA (BEIA) below 2.5x is credit positive. The ratio was 2.4x as of June
2024. The company's net debt/EBITDA (BEIA) of 2.5x equates to around 3.1x-3.2x on a Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA basis;
however, the difference largely depends on the company's cash balance.

Heineken's continued appetite for acquisitions may reduce any significant improvements in its credit metrics, although we expect
it to engage mainly in small bolt-on acquisitions without disrupting its leverage target on a permanent basis. Most recently, in early
2023, the company closed an agreement with Distell, Namibia Breweries Limited (NBL) and Ohlthaver & List Group of Companies
(O&L) to integrate their respective operations in Southern Africa into a new company. Along with its existing assets, Heineken invested
€1.2 billion in exchange for 65% of the new company. With the transaction, the company consolidated its number two position and

5 20 November 2024 Heineken N.V.: Update to credit analysis

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improved its control on the distribution activity in the South African beer market, and gained number one position in the Namibian
beer market; both markets have strong growth potential. However, the transaction will result in greater exposure to potential foreign-
currency volatility.

Exhibit 8
Leverage to improve slightly over the next 12-18 months, remaining around 2.8x-3.0x
Evolution of Heineken's cash flow and leverage
Cash Flow from Operations (left axis) Capex (left axis) Dividends (left axis)
Free Cash Flow (left axis) Debt / EBITDA (right axis) Net Debt / EBITDA (right axis)
6,000 6x

5,000 5x

4,000 4x
€ millions

3,000 3x

2,000 2x

1,000 1x

0 0x
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 LTM Jun-24 2024F 2025F
Free cash flow before M&A.
All figures and ratios are based on adjusted financial data and incorporate Moody’s Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations. Periods are financial year-end unless
indicated. LTM = Last 12 months. Moody’s forecasts are Moody’s opinion and do not represent the views of the issuer.
Sources: Moody's Financial Metrics™ and Moody's Ratings forecasts

ESG considerations
Heineken N.V.'s ESG credit impact score is CIS-2

Exhibit 9
ESG credit impact score

Source: Moody's Ratings

CIS-2 – Heineken’s ESG Credit Impact Score reflects our assessment that ESG attributes overall have no impact on the rating.
Moderate environmental and social risks exist in relation to water management and customer relations. However, the company's
sound governance - especially in terms of financial strategy and risk management – despite its concentrated ownership represents an
important mitigant.

6 20 November 2024 Heineken N.V.: Update to credit analysis

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Exhibit 10
ESG issuer profile scores

Source: Moody's Ratings

Environmental
E-3. Environmental risks are in line with other beer manufacturers mainly reflecting the industry's exposure to water management,
waste and pollution and its reliance on natural capital in relation to the production of key ingredients for its products. While raw
materials typically represent a modest component of its cost structure, alcoholic beverage producers rely on the availability of water
and specific ingredients, some of which might be difficult to substitute. These risks are somewhat mitigated by the company's product
and geographic diversification, its wide production footprint and its efforts with regard to water stewardship and sustainability. We
view physical climate risk and carbon transition risks as low for the industry.

Social
S-4. Like many other alcoholic beverage companies, Heineken’s social Issuer Profile Score primarily reflects the exposure to potential
adverse regulatory changes and the brand reputation risks and exposure to responsible marketing and distribution related to the sale of
alcoholic beverage. While the alcohol concentration is significantly lower by volume in beer than in spirits, and Heineken is increasing
its revenues from no-Alcohol or low-alcohol product which accounted for 6% of its 2022 volume, brewers are exposed to alcohol-
related risks. This is partially mitigated by very clear labeling and disclosure about the risks of excessive consumption of alcoholic
products, the focus on appropriate marketing and on responsible drinking. Social risks also include exposures to demographics and
societal trends, although alcoholic beverage volume declines are offset by ongoing premiumization and product innovation. These risks
are balanced by neutral to low risks to health and safety, human capital and responsible production.

Governance
G-2. Heineken's governance risks encompass its conservative financial policies, overall sound governance practices and its experienced
management team with good credibility and a long track record, which compensate for its concentrated ownership. Heineken's
conservative financial policy and track record at maintaining its leverage target support a score of 1 for Financial Strategy and Risk
Management. Despite being publicly traded, Heineken’s governance is influenced by the fact that the company is controlled by the
Heineken family (50.005% of the Heineken N.V. issued shares is owned by Heineken Holding N.V., which is 53.171% owned by L’Arche
Green N.V. in which The Heineken family holds 88.98%). The family ownership has so far proved supportive of a conservative financial
policy.

Liquidity analysis
Heineken's strong liquidity is underpinned by its cash balance of €1.8 billion as of June 2024 (excluding restricted cash as part of this
is sitting in some emerging markets where cash repatriation might be more difficult, although this proportion is fairly small) and a
sizeable committed revolving credit facility of €3.5 billion (fully undrawn as of June 2024), which matures in May 2029 (with extension
options till 2030) and does not contain financial covenants.

These sources, together with our expectation of stable cash generation from operations, more than cover the company's debt
maturities of around €4.7 billion over the 12 months ending June 2025 (which, however, include mainly short-term facilities that
are normally rolled over). We note that the company issued a €900 million 12-year bond in June 2024 to prefinance some of the
upcoming maturities. Heineken's business is characterised by elements of seasonality, typical of beer companies with a large presence
in the Northern Hemisphere, although the company has mitigated such seasonality now through increased exposure to Mexico and
Africa/Asia, which have different seasonal patterns through the year. A degree of inventory buildup before the summer and a larger
portion of the dividend payment in the first half of the year drive seasonality in cash generation.

7 20 November 2024 Heineken N.V.: Update to credit analysis

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Exhibit 11
Heineken has a well-spread debt maturity profile
Long-term debt maturity profile as of September 2024
3,649
3,600
3,200
2,800
2,400
€ millions

2,000 1,679 1,600 1,550

1,600
1,100 1,028 1,031
1,200 930
750
800 500
460
400
0
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 > 2034

Data represents bond maturity profile, which comprises most of the company's long-term debt, except for short-term debt including bank overdraft and commercial paper utilisation.
Sources: Company's annual report and website, and FactSet

8 20 November 2024 Heineken N.V.: Update to credit analysis

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Methodology and scorecard

The scorecard-indicated outcome, according to our Alcoholic Beverages methodology is in line with the actual rating assigned to
Heineken based on its forward-looking financial ratios. The outcome reflects a mix of strong business considerations and solid financial
policy that balance the company's somewhat weaker financial ratios for the rating category, particularly operating margin.

Exhibit 12
Rating factors
Heineken N.V.

Current Moody's 12-18 month forward view

Alcoholic Beverage Industry Grid LTM Jun-24
Factor 1 : Scale (15%) Measure Score Measure Score
a) Revenue ($ billions) 33.2 Aa 32.8 - 33 Aa
Factor 2 : Business Profile (32.5%)
a) Diversification and Exposure to Riskier Markets Aa Aa Aa Aa
b) Category / Brand Strength and Diversification A A A A
c) Global Industry Position A A A A
d) Innovation, Distribution and Infrastructure A A A A
Factor 3 : Profitability (7.5%)
a) EBITA Margin 13.4% B 14.1% - 14.2% B
Factor 4 : Leverage and Coverage (30%)
a) RCF / Net Debt 22.0% Baa 25.9% - 26.2% Baa
b) Debt / EBITDA 3.2x Baa 2.8x - 2.9x Baa
c) EBIT / Interest Expense 5.1x Baa 5.6x - 6.1x Baa
Factor 5 : Financial Policy (15%)
a) Financial Policy A A A A
Rating:
a) Scorecard-Indicated Outcome A3 A3
b) Actual Rating Assigned A3

All figures and ratios are based on adjusted financial data and incorporate Moody’s Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations. LTM = Last 12 months. Moody’s forecasts
are Moody’s opinion and do not represent the views of the issuer.
Sources: Moody's Financial Metrics™ and Moody's Ratings forecasts

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Appendix
Exhibit 13
Peer comparison
Heineken N.V.
Heineken N.V. Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV Kirin Holdings Company, Limited Carlsberg Breweries A/S Molson Coors Beverage Company

A3 Stable A3 Stable Baa1 Stable Baa1 Stable Baa1 Stable

FY FY LTM FY FY LTM FY FY LTM FY FY FY FY FY LTM
(in $ millions) Dec-22 Dec-23 Jun-24 Dec-22 Dec-23 Jun-24 Dec-22 Dec-23 Jun-24 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-22 Dec-23 Jun-24

Revenue 30,268 32,833 33,167 57,786 59,380 59,927 13,063 13,233 13,269 9,561 9,954 10,680 10,701 11,702 11,938
EBITDA 6,651 6,183 6,458 19,716 18,942 19,757 2,342 2,176 2,223 2,232 2,173 2,185 2,031 2,409 2,674
Total Debt 18,023 20,741 20,401 81,430 79,738 79,772 5,026 5,592 5,341 5,429 5,201 6,827 6,745 6,473 7,307
Cash & Cash Equivalents 2,505 2,098 1,928 9,900 10,223 7,296 723 768 696 1,276 1,172 1,983 600 869 1,647
EBITA Margin % 16.6% 13.1% 13.4% 26.5% 24.1% 25.1% 13.9% 12.7% 13.0% 16.7% 16.7% 15.1% 13.9% 15.9% 17.9%
EBIT / Interest Expense 8.6x 5.3x 5.1x 3.8x 3.4x 3.7x 25.2x 24.2x 24.5x 17.3x 18.4x 12.7x 4.9x 6.7x 8.2x
Debt / EBITDA 2.7x 3.3x 3.2x 4.1x 4.2x 4.0x 2.2x 2.6x 2.6x 2.5x 2.4x 3.1x 3.3x 2.7x 2.7x
RCF / Net Debt 26.4% 20.4% 22.0% 16.2% 17.1% 17.0% 28.5% 25.8% 25.5% 26.7% 29.3% 20.6% 23.2% 30.5% 32.1%
FCF / Debt 6.7% 0.4% 7.3% 6.4% 6.3% 7.6% -7.2% 0.0% 4.5% 11.5% 10.9% 6.0% 7.5% 16.2% 13.4%

All figures and ratios are based on adjusted financial data and incorporate Moody’s Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations. LTM = Last 12 months.
Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™

Exhibit 14
Moody's-adjusted debt reconciliation
Heineken N.V.
(in € millions) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 LTM Jun-24

As reported debt 17,052.0 18,196.0 16,873.0 16,377.0 18,238.0 18,497.0

Pensions 1,126.0 886.0 609.0 510.0 538.0 538.0

Non-Standard Adjustments 332.0 - - - - -

Moody's-adjusted debt 18,510.0 19,082.0 17,482.0 16,887.0 18,776.0 19,035.0

All figures and ratios are based on adjusted financial data and incorporate Moody’s Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations. Periods are financial year-end unless
indicated. LTM = Last 12 months.
Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™

Exhibit 15
Moody's-adjusted EBITDA reconciliation
Heineken N.V.
(in € millions) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 LTM Jun-24

As reported EBITDA 5,817.0 3,562.0 6,782.0 6,455.0 6,072.0 5,305.0

Pensions (3.0) (7.0) (4.0) 3.0 (2.0) (2.0)

Unusual Items (95.0) - (1,521.0) (147.0) (352.0) 667.0

Moody's-adjusted EBITDA 5,719.0 3,555.0 5,257.0 6,311.0 5,718.0 5,970.0

All figures and ratios are based on adjusted financial data and incorporate Moody’s Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations. Periods are financial year-end unless
indicated. LTM = Last 12 months.
Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™

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Exhibit 16
Overview of select historical and forecast Moody's-adjusted financial data
Heineken N.V.
(in € millions) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 LTM Jun-24 2024F 2025F

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue 23,969 19,715 21,941 28,719 30,362 30,662 30,362 30,514

EBITDA 5,719 3,555 5,257 6,311 5,718 5,970 6,358 6,401
EBIT 3,832 1,610 3,298 4,324 3,601 3,713 3,381 3,409
Interest Expense 576 535 491 501 680 727 603 562
BALANCE SHEET

Cash & Cash Equivalents 1,821 4,000 2,847 2,347 1,899 1,799 2,765 2,369
Total Debt 18,510 19,082 17,482 16,887 18,776 19,035 18,422 17,747
Net Debt 16,689 15,082 14,635 14,540 16,877 17,236 15,657 15,378
CASH FLOW

Funds from Operations (FFO) 4,446 2,978 3,872 4,941 4,774 4,932 5,262 5,328
Cash Flow From Operations (CFO) 4,431 3,290 4,240 4,548 4,484 5,395 4,968 5,384
Capital Expenditures (2,360) (1,921) (1,895) (2,315) (3,067) (2,865) (3,090) (3,090)
Dividends (1,223) (811) (796) (1,099) (1,335) (1,133) (1,200) (1,300)
Retained Cash Flow (RCF) 3,223 2,167 3,076 3,842 3,439 3,799 4,062 4,028
RCF / Debt 17.4% 11.4% 17.6% 22.8% 18.3% 20.0% 22.0% 22.7%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 848 558 1,549 1,134 82 1,397 678 994
FCF / Debt 4.6% 2.9% 8.9% 6.7% 0.4% 7.3% 3.7% 5.6%
PROFITABILITY

% Change in Sales (YoY) 6.6% -17.7% 11.3% 30.9% 5.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.5%
EBIT margin % 16.0% 8.2% 15.0% 15.1% 11.9% 12.1% 11.1% 11.2%
EBITDA margin % 23.9% 18.0% 24.0% 22.0% 18.8% 19.5% 20.9% 21.0%
INTEREST COVERAGE

(FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense 8.7x 6.6x 8.9x 10.9x 8.0x 7.8x 9.7x 10.5x
EBIT / Interest Expense 6.6x 3.0x 6.7x 8.6x 5.3x 5.1x 5.6x 6.1x
EBITDA / Interest Expense 9.9x 6.6x 10.7x 12.6x 8.4x 8.2x 10.5x 11.4x
LEVERAGE

Debt / EBITDA 3.2x 5.4x 3.3x 2.7x 3.3x 3.2x 2.9x 2.8x
Net Debt / EBITDA 2.9x 4.2x 2.8x 2.3x 3.0x 2.9x 2.5x 2.4x

Cash flow from Investing Activities includes capital spending, acquisitions and divestitures. All figures and ratios are based on adjusted financial data and incorporate Moody’s Global
Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations. LTM = Last 12 months. Moody’s forecasts are Moody’s opinion and do not represent the views of the issuer.
Sources: Moody's Financial Metrics™ and Moody's Ratings forecasts

11 20 November 2024 Heineken N.V.: Update to credit analysis

 Moody's Ratings Corporates

Ratings
Exhibit 17
Category Moody's Rating
HEINEKEN N.V.
Outlook Stable
Issuer Rating -Dom Curr A3
Senior Unsecured A3
ST Issuer Rating -Dom Curr P-2
Source: Moody's Ratings

12 20 November 2024 Heineken N.V.: Update to credit analysis

 Moody's Ratings Corporates

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REPORT NUMBER 1428569

13 20 November 2024 Heineken N.V.: Update to credit analysis