White paper: Elevating the

voices of affected people in

climate adaptation
Wendy Chamberlin and Graham A. N. Wright
White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

Table of contents

Executive summary

1 What we know about climate exposure and

vulnerability

People who live in poverty are the most exposed

and the most vulnerable to climate shocks and
stresses

Climate change especially impacts women

Financial services have a role to play, but more

needs to be done

2 What we are learning about climate impact

and vulnerable households

Climate shocks and stresses vary in frequency,

size, and duration and create knock-on effects

Climate impacts have cross-cutting implications

A holistic systems view is required to best

understand the effects on the most vulnerable

Responding to climate shocks and stresses

depends on their type, size, frequency, duration,
and timing

Maladaptation to climate change carries risks

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White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

3 Going beyond single solutions:

Recommendations for a new approach

Do more to understand affected people’s needs,

aspirations, perceptions, and behaviors and
recognize the close interrelationships between
these factors

Take a multisectoral view of climate change

Include women in solution design and

implementation

4 Implications for financial services providers

Barriers to financial inclusion persist

Context matters for solution design

No single financial product or service can

address all needs for climate adaptation and
resilience

The digital revolution could be key, but must be

climate-proof

References

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White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

Executive summary

By 2030, half of the world’s citizens could be exposed to heat, drought, and flood-related climate hazards
that stem from the alarming rise in the earth’s temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels
(Bowcott et al., 2021). Vulnerable populations are especially affected, as climate shocks and stresses impact
where they live and their health, livelihoods, and access to essential services.

Existing research from development sectors, such as financial inclusion, agriculture, health, and food
security, has provided important insights. It sheds light on the role financial services can play to build
the resilience of those most exposed to climate shocks and stresses (Zetterli, 2023; Anderson et al., 2023).
However, while some research has focused on the impact of climate change on vulnerable individuals and
the relevance of financial services in bolstering their resilience, fewer studies have included the actual
perspectives of those directly impacted. This presents a challenge when we consider the role of solutions to
address the challenges these individuals face because of climate shocks and stresses.

When the voices of affected individuals are not heard directly, the complexities of how they experience
events can be misunderstood and oversimplified. Stakeholders may fail to adequately recognize existing
approaches of adaptation and resilience they undertake to respond to climate events. Moreover, the first-,
second-, and third-order effects1 of climate shocks and stresses weave an intricate web around the most
vulnerable populations. In a rush to create targeted “silver bullet” solutions, critical actors from across
sectors may fail to appreciate these higher-order effects.

1
These refer to the initial results of a climate shock or stress and the resultant longer-term effects that may extend and/or be adjacent to the climate
event itself (e.g., flooding causing an increase of water-borne diseases)

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 White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

Figure 1: Customer perspective: Vandana Devi

• Has taken loans through Kisan Credit Card (KCC), a subsidized

loan product for farmers
• Accesses loans from microfinance institutions
• Has taken loans from self help groups SHGs and JEEViKA @ 1-2%
interest per month for farming and building a brick house
• Saves INR 2,000-4,000 (USD 27-54) per month in a bank account
• Takes informal loans from moneylenders in the village @ 3%
interest per month
• Has life insurance
• Husband sends remittances (INR 25,000 (USD 333) per month) to
her bank account from Delhi

Source: Ghosh et al., 2022

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White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

While financial services can play an important role in climate resilience strategies, how well highly vulnerable
populations can use them depends on how effectively services respond to their expressed needs and
individual contexts. This paper combines insights from a review of relevant literature with insights from
focus group discussions and individual interviews of those most impacted by climate shocks and stresses.

Through these insights, it provides a broad look at how financial and nonfinancial products and services can
support their resilience-building efforts. In doing so, it seeks to highlight the challenges that stakeholders
must address to support the climate resilience of affected populations. The paper also examines where and
how financial services can play a role in that journey.

The authors’ experience, built on more than three decades of financial inclusion work, underscores the
importance of listening to and understanding customers’ voices. As they face climate shocks and stresses
head-on, low- and middle-income individuals are adapting and building resilience. Only by listening to their
perspectives and learning from their experiences, can the sector design products they will value and use.

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 White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

1 What we know about

climate exposure and
vulnerability

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White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

People who live in poverty are the most exposed and the most
vulnerable to climate shocks and stresses

Climate change and related hazards (e.g., droughts, floods, heat stress, etc.) affect many
aspects of people’s lives—such as their health, access to food and housing, or their source
of income, such as crops or fish stocks—and many will have to adapt their way of life in
order to deal with these impacts. People who are poor and have few resources with which
to adapt are thus much more seriously negatively affected by climate-related hazards.

– (Birkman et al., 2022)

Poor people face increased vulnerability and exposure2 to climate shocks and stresses, based on the
geography, social norms, and economic opportunities available to them. Their socioeconomic status
leaves them with worse options, for instance, when it comes to where they live, which has implications for
their exposure to climate risks. For instance, poor people are more likely to live in areas prone to flooding,
mudslides, drought, and extreme temperatures simply because those areas are less desirable and, therefore,
cheaper.

The weather is so variable—we do not know what to do. When we expect rain there is
none, and then suddenly there is so much [rain] that all our crops are washed away. This
is getting worse, and we are left helpless.

India, Male, Farmer (rice and wheat) 31-40 (Ghosh et al., 2022)

2
The IPCC defines exposure as being in a geographical area where a climate hazard may occur and vulnerability as the propensity for adverse impact
because of its occurrence. This distinction is important, since people can be exposed but not vulnerable. Being vulnerable however implies being
exposed. (Cardona et al., 2012).

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 White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

Figure 2. Different aspects and dimensions of vulnerability

Source: Birkman et al., 2022

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White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

Similarly, poor people are more likely to work in climate-exposed livelihoods, including agricultural and other
outdoor manual labor activities, that make them susceptible to the negative effects of extreme heat and inclement
weather. Extreme heat can reduce labor productivity due to work interruptions. This can impact workers’ incomes,
especially for those who do manual work outdoors. For example, in Dhaka, “extreme heat and humidity cause
labor productivity-related losses greater than 8% of annual output generated in Dhaka today—and by 2050, this
could increase to 10%” (Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center, 2023).

Before [cyclone] Aila, around 800-880 kg of grain and rice would be grown per bigha [1
bigha = 1,600 square yards]. Now due to the changes in the salinity, we are only able
to grow around 520-600 kg per bigha. Leafy vegetables do not grow well anymore. Due
to that, I now harvest a variety of fish and grow a variety of different variants of crops
and hybrid grains on our land.​

Bangladesh, Male, Farmer, 31-40

While poor people experience greater climate exposure, they are also more vulnerable to the effects of climate
shocks and stresses since they tend to have fewer resources, weaker prevention and coping mechanisms,
and lower access to external support. “Vulnerability [to climate change] is higher in locations with poverty
governance challenges and limited access to basic services and resources, violent conflict and high levels of
climate-sensitive livelihoods” (IPCC, 2023).

The immediate and long-term repercussions of climate shocks and stresses drive up the prices of basic
commodities and induce health risks brought about by waterborne disease and extreme weather. Such
price rises occur particularly in areas with weak infrastructure and sanitation, where poor people are more
likely to live—and impact livelihoods via reduced income-earning potential (Kabundi, et al., 2022).

The losses associated with climate shocks and stresses, therefore “affect poor people far more because their
livelihoods depend on fewer assets, their consumption is closer to subsistence levels, they cannot rely on
savings to smooth the impacts, their health and education are at greater risk, and they may need more time
to recover and reconstruct their livelihoods” (Hallegatte et al. 2017).

I would say all the loans I got were wasted. The money we borrowed and used for work this
year was wasted. However, we are still alive. But we did not achieve anything. What we lost
this year is more than one million [Nigerian naira ≈ USD 1,250 at the time]. It is even more
than that. We were dumbfounded at the amount we lost this year concerning cassava. It is
difficult to talk about it.

Nigeria, Female, Farmer 51-60

A way to assess the cumulative impact climate shocks and stresses have on poor people is to look at how
they affect their livelihood capital and what that means for their vulnerability. This view shows that the
impact extends beyond just financial risk and has broader implications. As discussed further in the section

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 White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

on “A holistic systems view is required to best understand the effects on the most vulnerable”, a systems view
is required to best understand the effects on the most vulnerable. The interplay between all five livelihood
capitals is key to understanding poor households’ resilience and ability to adapt.

An example of how this can be assessed is by looking at the five livelihood assets in Figure 3. This view
helps peel back the above-described layers of impact from climate shocks and stresses that vulnerable
populations experience.

Figure 3: The effects of climate shocks and stresses, using the five livelihood assets

Source: Chamberlin, W. et al., 2024

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White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

Climate change especially impacts women

A gender focus on climate change is critical to understanding the barriers women face as they build
resilience in the face of climate-related challenges. Overall, women experience higher exposure and greater
vulnerability. They may have fewer tools and strategies to cope with climate-related risks (Notta and Zetterli,
2023). These disproportionate gender effects occur not because women “are inherently more at risk, but
because of the intersection [of climatic shocks and stresses] with other social and economic inequalities,
such as land ownership rights or patriarchal power structures” (2X Climate Finance Taskforce, 2021). Social
norms affect roles and responsibilities in the household and the communities, influence the types of jobs
women can access, and impact how they use adaptation strategies in response to climate risks (Njuki, 2021).

Figure 4. Illustrative examples of how women face higher exposure and greater vulnerability to climate hazards yet have fewer
tools and strategies to manage them, including access to relevant financial products and services.

Source: Notta and Zetterli 2023

When it comes to building economic resilience for women, rural livelihoods are a significant source of
income, as agriculture is the primary activity of 79% of economically active women in low-income countries
(Quisumbing et al., 2014). Women are involved in all aspects of agricultural production. This includes paid
and unpaid labor that involves processing, distribution, and a range of other non-farm activities in rural
economies (Anderson et al., 2023).

Since the agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changes in heat, rainfall, and other weather
patterns, this means climate change disproportionately impacts women’s livelihoods. At the same time,
this means women play a critical role in adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate shocks and
stresses on agricultural production and food security. However, they often have fewer options for livelihood
diversification outside of agriculture, often due to gender norms. (Hernandez et al., 2018; Katz, 2020).

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 White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

I lost the amount due to the wasted cassava. Of course, we have to cover the expenses
for planting the cassava. The laborers for cassava may charge up to twelve thousand
[Nigerian naira ≈ USD 15 at that time], for a big plot. The money we spent on planting the
cassava is huge. Our money went to waste because we did not even recover the expenses
we incurred while planting the cassava.

Nigeria, Female, Farmer, 31-40

Lost productivity from heat stress at work, particularly in developing countries, is expected to reach a
staggering USD 4.2 trillion per year by 2030 (Future Earth, 2019). Women bear the brunt of this climate stress,
too. Extreme heat impacts women disproportionately due to a combination of biological factors and social
norms. Estimates show that 27,000 women die each year on average due to heat-related excess mortality
(Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation, 2023). In India, this is projected to more than double to 73,500 by 2050 (Arsht-
Rockefeller Foundation, 2023).

Pregnant and lactating mothers are extremely vulnerable to high temperatures. Exposure to prolonged
periods of elevated temperatures is linked to adverse pregnancy outcomes, including stillbirth, congenital
birth defects, and preterm deliveries (Baharav et al., 2023). Extreme heat also leads to women losing 19%
of their paid working hours. Yet, for women in India, more than two-thirds of all heat-related productivity
losses are from unpaid domestic labor. Extreme heat causes women to work longer to do the same tasks—
women have to work as much as 90 minutes extra per day on average doing paid and unpaid work.

In the summer, I have to take several breaks to drink water. I also need to cover my head
with a cloth due to social norms. I cannot remove the cloth around men I do not know.
Sometimes, I have to take leave because the heat impacts my health. But I cannot do
much about it, as this is the nature of my work.

India, Female, Informal sector worker, 31-40

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White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

Figure 5. Experiencing extreme heat first hand – Hema’s perspectives

Source: (MSC, 2024)

Women also face higher vulnerability to many indirect knock-on effects from climate change, which
include an increased risk of gender-based violence and even higher mortality (Soliman et al., 2022; de la
O Campos and Garner 2014; Sorensen et al., 2018; Fatema et al., 2019; Sida, 2021). In places where women
are responsible for agriculture, when harvests are threatened or wiped out altogether, violence can ensue—
often from within a woman’s own family (Cwienk, 2020). Increased drought and desertification can increase
the distances women must go to fetch water, which exacerbates their risk of sexual assault (Cwienk, 2020;
Castañeda et al., 2020).

A recent UN Women report based on research in four Pacific Island countries also found that people
searched online “more frequently for terms relating to gender-based violence during times of crisis.” This
included “searches for phrases such as ‘abuse sexually,’ ‘beating wife,’ and ‘rape,’ in the local languages
when people were displaced by natural disasters, or threatened by extreme weather, or confined to their
homes by curfews or lockdowns.” (Kaul and Duerto Valero, 2023).

Girls are more likely to be forced into child marriage in areas with the rising effects of climate change
and related environmental crises (UNFPA ESARO, 2022). “Extreme weather events driven by climate
change increase a girl’s risk, with every 10% deviation in rainfall connected to around a 1% increase in
the prevalence of child marriage” (UNICEF, 2023). According to Niaz Asadullah, an economist at Monash
University in Malaysia, young girls in Bangladesh have been forced to marry in the aftermath of extreme
floods because “it means one less mouth to feed” (Rodrigues, 2022). Subsequent impacts of child marriage
include increased sexual violence, early motherhood and anemia among mothers, child malnutrition, and
mental stress. Dealing with these impacts remains difficult because climate shocks and stresses worsen
health risks for women and complicate the subsequent care they receive.

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 White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

Women and girls also face disproportionate healthcare-related risks because of climate shocks and stresses.
Their increased exposure exacerbates the likelihood of climate-induced illnesses, for instance, those caused
by extreme heat and vector-borne illnesses. Additionally, increased salinity in coastal waterways causes an
increase in urinary tract infections and negatively impacts fertility. After a disaster, women and girls are often
less able to access necessary healthcare, which increases their health risks and decreases their chances for
recovery (Yashwant, 2023).

When it comes to decision-making in response to climate events, women may face constraints or are
compelled to make choices that negatively impact their path to resilience (see Figure 6). For example, when
agricultural approaches require adaptation, women often lack the full authority to make farming decisions
on their household’s behalf. Social and cultural norms may also preclude them from accessing resources that
support livelihood adaptation (Mwakanyamale et al., 2021; de la O Campos and Garner, 2014). For women,
the decision-making process extends beyond asset management into household needs management. Case
studies from Lesotho and Nigeria, for example, showed that when resources were constrained, women
decreased food consumption more than men did, even while pregnant.

Figure 6. Understanding the link between gender norms and women’s behaviors

Source: Koning et al., 2021

Financial services have a role to play, but more needs to be done

Both informal and formal financial services play a critical role in the resilience-building and adaptive strategies
adopted by those vulnerable to climate change (Zetterli, 2023). Access to financial services helps vulnerable
communities improve resilience to climate change as it allows them to diversify their livelihoods, insure
against risk, and make investments that improve their adaptive capabilities. For example, microfinance
institutions (MFIs) have been shown to play a significant role in building poor people’s resilience in Ethiopia,
Mali, and Myanmar. These MFIs provide increased outreach to the unbanked through savings, loans, and, in
some instances, microinsurance (Haworth et al., 2016). Some examples of the products and service delivery
approaches that play a role include:

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White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

Savings provide a crucial cushion and allow households to weather storms and floods (Wright, 1999). Formal
savings can help avoid negative coping strategies, such as sale of assets or reduced food consumption
(Anderson et al., 2023). Households can also use savings as collateral for different types of credit.

It was the money I saved through savings contributions [to savings groups] that I used to
help my goats in the year 2021. It was also those monies that I made from selling goats in
2020. I sold many of my goats, the matured ones, during the Christmas season of 2020. I
did not spend all the money I made from the sales of those goats. I saved a lot of money in
the bank in addition to the money I got from savings group contributions. So, during the
hot season, I used this money to help myself, and also the goats, by buying things that I
used to protect them and feeds that I used to take care of them so that they would be able
to survive those times.

Nigeria, Female, Farmer, 31-40

Credit can enable people to invest in assets or technologies that reduce their climate risk. It is often vital for
people to rebuild livelihoods, replace productive assets, and repair housing (Fenton et al. 2017). A growing
range of digital financial services, such as PAYGO for asset acquisition (Waldron et al., 2018) and payments
and credit services embedded in value chains (Mattern and Ramirez, 2017), provide important opportunities
for communities affected by climate change.

Yet climate change amplifies risk for lenders, particularly in agriculture. A judicious mix of support will need
to be in place to reduce risk for the retail lenders that serve affected people. This support includes financing
from reformed multilateral development banks, increased international development assistance (IDA) (The
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, 2023), and the adaptation and loss and damage funds affluent nations
have promised (United Nations Environment Programme, 2022).

Insurance provides cover and compensation for livelihoods and assets lost to climate events. Weather index
insurance against events that cause loss is expected to provide a better alternative to traditional agricultural
insurance in lower-income countries (Pandey and Sharma, 2020). The R4 Rural Resilience Initiative in
Ethiopia is one of the most successful examples of weather index insurance programs (United Nations
Environment Programme, 2023) that targets rainfed smallholder farmers. Evidence from the study suggests
that the program benefited vulnerable groups, particularly female farmers:

Relative to participating male-headed households, female-headed households have

increased their investments at a higher rate, taken out more loans, decreased the amount
of land they sharecropped, increased their investments in hired labour, and increased
their total planted land in response to insurance

(Haworth et al., 2016).

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Payments: Digital payments systems have enabled rapid movement of financial resources to affected areas,
including through personal remittances (Sharma, 2021). Many countries, including Bangladesh, Ethiopia,
Kenya, Madagascar, and Niger, have used government social safety net payments as a mechanism to help
vulnerable people cope with climate change’s impacts, such as food insecurity, droughts, and cyclones
(World Bank, 2020). This highlights the importance of effective and inclusive digital payments systems to
send money to affected communities, ideally before rapid onset events.

Besides formal financial services, community-based and informal financial services have been useful in
building poor people’s climate resilience. Such services include village savings and loan associations (VSLAs) and
rotating savings and credit associations (ROSCAs). For instance, in Tanzania, small farmers formed ROSCAs to
diversify their livelihoods and adapt to climate change’s effects. Group members reported that their family and
general status improved after they took up beekeeping as a climate-adaptive livelihood (Danny et al., 2022).

We live in a very remote area, which is heavily affected by cyclones. If a person falls sick,
we need to travel 30 km and cross a river to visit a doctor. So, we are always cautious
about such disasters, and we never know when we might need money. We always try
to save something from our income, even if it is very difficult, and save it in the samiti
[MFI or NGO offering microloans]; we also take loans from the samiti to keep as savings
because we never know when such a disaster might occur. We spend those savings first
when such things happen.

Bangladesh, Male, Farmer, 41-50

Yet many remain unable to access and use the financial services they need to respond to climate change.
1.4 billion individuals remain excluded from the formal financial system, and most of them live in highly
climate-vulnerable conditions. Furthermore, almost none of the financial services for low- and moderate-
income people have been designed for climate change and few providers have prioritized offerings for
adaptation and resilience (Zetterli, 2023).

The availability and applicability of financial services for women, in particular, remains a challenge to be
addressed. Women have less access to formal financial services. Only 20% of women in low-income countries
own accounts at financial institutions compared to 28% of men (Notta and Zetterli, 2023). The barriers to
accessing and using digital financial services persist, especially for women (Wright, 2017). “Rural women tend
to have lower levels of literacy and numeracy and earn less income than rural men, making mobile phones,
airtime, and data less accessible and affordable. These factors, along with cultural norms that limit women’s
privacy and mobility, also constrain their ability to use fully digital services.” (Anderson et al., 2023)

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2
What we are learning
about climate impact
and vulnerable
households

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Climate risks are unpredictable in their timing, duration, frequency, severity, and even in their impacts. As a result,
we can highlight some critical lessons, as they have implications for how solutions are designed and implemented.

Climate shocks and stresses vary in frequency, size, and duration and
create knock-on effects

We have experienced drought before, but now it is happening almost every year. I do not
know how we are going to survive the coming winter.

– (Onta and Resurreccion, 2011)

As climate change increases the frequency and severity of climate shocks and stresses, the cycle of once-
predictable events becomes unpredictable. Vulnerable people are left with little time to prepare for climate-
related events—let alone cope with, recover from, and adapt to them (see Figure 7 for examples).

Figure 7. Impact of cyclones on rice farmer livelihoods in southwest Bangladesh

Source: Decodis, MSC, 2024

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The problem is that the farm did not get the rain when it was supposed to. When the rain
came, it was too much.

Nigeria, Female, Farmer, 41-50

Slow-onset stress changes, such as desertification, soil salination, and variable weather, affect households
in ways that differ greatly from sudden-shock events, such as cyclones and floods. The former, by definition,
are incremental and less dramatic. Since changes are insidious, communities often struggle to identify the
actual impacts of these types of events. However, as people learn to recognize their effects, they typically
have more time to respond to them—and often do so by further diversifying income sources.

Rapid onset events, by contrast, carry clear and immediate impacts and often do not permit similar
household responses. As these events hit with greater frequency and ferocity, many households find their
established coping responses increasingly challenged. Some rapid onset events also exacerbate slow onset
changes. For example, cyclone-induced tidal surges often accelerate the salination of soil resulting from the
rise in sea level.

Research by CGAP, MSC, and Decodis in Bangladesh, India, and Nigeria sought to understand the perspectives
of people affected by climate change. It highlights how varying frequencies, sizes, durations, and sequences
of climate events can bring about extremely different effects. Localized flooding can have marginal—
and possibly even beneficial—effects on households, as it deposits fertile topsoil on agricultural land. In
contrast, the severe long-term flooding that occurred in Pakistan and Nigeria in 2022 significantly disrupted
livelihoods, markets, education, and health services. Similarly, farmers can often manage one-off drought
occurrences, whereas repeated droughts that persist across several growing seasons can be devastating and
impoverish them in the long term. Often, the combination of multiple shocks amplifies the impact: In both
Nigeria and India, farmers were hit with drought in a single growing season, followed by intense rainfall and
then drought again. This type of sequential extreme debilitates farmers’ ability to plan, plant, and tend to
crops and ensure healthy livestock (see Figure 8).

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Figure 8. Combinations of severe weather patterns within a single cropping season reduce income

Source: Decodis, MSC, 2024

Alongside variations in duration and onset, the effects of climate change occur at levels that lead to
first-, second-, and third-order effects. Between 2018 and 2019, for example, a lengthy drought period in
northern Kenya weakened livestock herds, which made it difficult for pastoralists to find grazing areas
and profit from livestock sales. The second- and third-order effects of the drought included social unrest,
weakened livestock, and an outbreak of a parasitic disease that caused a number of deaths in pastoralist
communities (Okeyo, 2019).

Such secondary and tertiary knock-on effects can be seen as a result of other types of climate-induced shocks
and stresses. For example, floods with a high impact on urban populations can cause health problems,
such as skin and intestinal disease, bronchitis, and chronic cough—especially among children under five
(Hallegatte et al., 2017; Winsemius et al., 2018).

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Climate impacts have cross-cutting implications

Climate change has impacts and implications on several crucial aspects of the lives of poor people, including
livelihoods, health, and social equality.

Impacts on livelihoods
People who live in poverty often directly depend on natural resources—either as primary or supplementary
sources of food, fodder, building materials, and fuel (Nyong, 2005). Climate-induced changes can dramatically
affect livelihoods in developing countries in terms of crop yields, ecosystem boundaries, and ranges of
species. Poor people often depend heavily on climate-sensitive sectors, such as fisheries and agriculture,
and have limited capacity to anticipate and respond to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change.

Figure 9. Cyclones, storm surges, flooding, and salinity upend the physical and financial health of the affected rice farming
communities

Source: Decodis, MSC, 2024

Climate impacts on livelihoods range from primary impacts, such as loss of agricultural areas devastated by
climatic events, to secondary impacts, such as loss of topsoil, increasing soil salinity, and loss of agricultural
yields due to rising temperatures (Nelson et al., 2009). The fisheries sector is subject to adverse impacts as
well, with Bangladesh, Belize, China, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Egypt, Honduras, the Lao People’s Democratic
Republic, Nigeria, and Uganda found to be particularly vulnerable (Barange et al., 2018).

Short-term climate change impacts on aquaculture may include loss of production and increased risk of
diseases, parasites, and harmful algal blooms. Long-term impacts can include reduced availability of wild
seed—a consequence that arises from the destruction of suitable breeding waters and migration.

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Floods come every year. But this year, the situation is worse. My house is badly affected
by this year’s flood, and many rice paddies got washed away.

Bangladesh, Female, Migrant who has now moved to Dhaka, 31-40

Impacts on health
Climate change can also present various challenges to a population’s health. The greatest harm continues
to be seen where exposure and susceptibility are high, often in countries that have themselves contributed
the least to climate change (Haines and Ebi, 2017).

Figure 10: Impact of climate change on human health

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2022

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Climate-sensitive health risks are wide-ranging. They include injury and death from extreme events, such
as heatwaves, storms, and floods; infectious diseases, such as food-, water-, and vector-borne illnesses;
and food and water insecurity. Poor air quality due to increasing wildfire incidents has become a factor
in associated health impacts including respiratory diseases. Kovats et al. (2003) note the various impacts
climate change implications have on health. Table 1 (below) has been adapted from the paper.

Table 1. Projected health impacts of climate change

Source: Adapted from Kovats, K., L., Ebi and B. Menne. 2003. Methods of Assessing Human Health Vulnerability and Public Health
Adaptation to Climate Change. Geneva: World Health Organization. www.who.dk/document/E81923.pdf

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Climate change is expected to lead to a rise in vector-borne diseases. Environmental factors, such as land use
and climate change-related impacts on ecosystems, can create suitable vector habitats that lead to their rise
(Watts et al., 2019). Multiple factors also contribute to the incidence of climate-sensitive infectious diseases,
such as malaria, dengue fever, Lyme disease, West Nile virus, and diarrheal diseases.

Impacts on social equality

Climate change is on a trajectory to exacerbate social inequality (Islam and Winkel, 2017). Empirical evidence
suggests grave impacts on already vulnerable populations (IPCC, 2022). In Southeast Asia, where increasingly
unpredictable monsoon rainfall and drought have made farming more difficult, the World Bank points to the
more than 8 million people who have moved toward the Middle East, Europe, and North America (World
Bank, 2018).

Climate change has wrecked everything. Our people live in other towns and cities like
refugees. All I wanted was to grow old with my children and their children. But now they
are gone, and I do not think they will ever return.

– (Randall, 2024)

People undertake climate change-induced migration for various reasons, which include the pursuit of better
economic opportunities. Migration can lead to future conflict. Previous work (Hsiang et al., 2013) showed a
correlation between climate disasters and conflict, but recent evidence (Ide et al., 2020) shows that these
disasters preceded it. This suggests a causal link: An increase in natural disasters due to global warming can
be a “threat multiplier” for armed violence (Schlanger, 2014).

Yes, I had to migrate for income. For almost 1-1.5 years, I had to rent a place outside and
look for other work. No crops have grown on my land for over two years. What else can I
say about living in poverty? It is like this.

Bangladesh, Male, Farmer, 31-40

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A holistic systems view is required to best understand the effects on

the most vulnerable
While the effects of climate shocks and stresses often have the most pronounced impact on the most
vulnerable, they also affect the enabling environment of critical resources that support the resilience of
these people. For example, when a climate shock or stress occurs, the coping mechanisms and resilience of
poor people do not depend on their personal financial and other resources alone. Their coping mechanisms
and resilience also rely heavily on community-level resources alongside market-level resources, such
as suppliers, trading centers, and healthcare providers, and state or national-level resources, such as
government agencies and safety nets, among others.

If a large-scale climate event occurs, it affects the individual and also affects these other critical parts of a
system. Therefore, it is important to take a systems view of the impact of these events. Doing so also helps us
understand the impact on other sources of resilience, such as neighbors, savings groups, financial institutions,
agricultural off-takers, or health clinics. A systems view also uncovers the subsequent consequences of the
individual’s ability to respond to the needs of those most exposed. At a high level, a systems view includes
the following layers:

• Micro level: The individual’s and household’s most immediate source of resilience is their innate and
accumulated capabilities and resources.

• Meso level: The household’s resilience depends on employers, suppliers, or economic markets, as well
as on providers of healthcare and other key services.

• Macro level: In many contexts, a substantial source of resilience is seen at the national level. It includes
government agencies, policies, regulations, safety nets, and social programs. It also includes the
functioning and stability of the macro economy.

Climate shocks and stresses may impact these levels in consistent or distinct ways by, in turn, impacting
the resilience of the most vulnerable. Failure to understand how a large-scale climate event is protracted
and compounded by the lingering effects of adjacent shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can threaten
a system’s stability as a whole. This can lead to a shortsighted perspective or limited understanding of how
systems can respond to support the short- and long-term needs of the most vulnerable.

DFID’s 1999 sustainable livelihoods framework (DFID, 1999) identifies and uses five micro-level livelihood
assets—human, natural, financial, social, and physical capital. It provides one way to examine the implications
of climate shocks and stresses with a systems view in mind. The framework highlights the importance of
understanding the context. In this case, the context is primarily climate change and the meso and macro
policies and institutions that create the structures and processes within which livelihood strategies must be
established (see Figure 11).

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 White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

Figure 11. DFID’s sustainable livelihoods framework

Source: DFID, 1999

The livelihoods approach puts people at the center of development.... Sustainable

poverty reduction will be achieved only if external support (i.e., support from outside
the household) works with people in a way that is congruent with their current livelihood
strategies, social environments, and ability to adapt. People—rather than the resources
they use or the governments that serve them—are the priority concern.

–DFID, 1999

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Given climate change’s growing impact, the framework and its focus on affected people is particularly
suitable. The five types of capital can enable or obstruct both planned and autonomous adaptation (see
Box 1.).

Box 1. Planned adaptation vs. autonomous adaptation

Locally-led adaptation combines planned and autonomous adaptation

Planned adaptation refers to the proactive strategic measures public agencies or organizations
take based on anticipated changes or risks. Measures are usually the result of policy decisions
and are backed by research, which renders them comprehensive and frequently, but not
always, more reliable. However, measures may be slow, costly, and may not perfectly address
local needs and specific communities or predict future scenarios.

Autonomous adaptation refers to spontaneous changes made by individuals or communities

in response to observed or expected environmental changes. This type of adaptation is quick,
flexible, and allows for solutions tailored to specific local needs. However, they may be short-
sighted, lack the resources for larger systemic issues, and even exacerbate problems if not
carefully managed (see section on “Maladaptation” below).

Successful adaptation typically involves a combination of planned and autonomous actions that
use the strategic direction of planned adaptations with the speed and flexibility of autonomous
adaptations—both informed by the voices of affected people. (Burton et al., 2001)

Now commonly known as “locally-led adaptation,” this approach is increasingly recognized

as the key to successfully responding the climate change in the face of hyper-local challenges.
See the CIFAR Alliance/MSC white paper on locally-led adaptation.

Responding to climate shocks and stresses depends on their type, size,

frequency, duration, and timing

The rain was too heavy. It brought part of the house down—one of the rooms. Now, I am
left with two rooms. It is still under repairs... they used zinc to cover the place for me.
When I have money, I give them to buy one or two bags of cement to work on it.

Nigeria, Female, Farmer, 41-50

As people seek out ways to respond to climate shocks and stresses, they draw upon a variety of resources
to support their efforts to adapt and build resilience. The reason for this is that what people respond to due
to a climate shock or stress will change over time, as shown in the example of rice farmers in Bangladesh in
Figure 12.

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 White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

Figure 12. Impact of and response to climate variability in the Aman rice cultivation cycle

Source: Decodis, MSC, 2024

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The strategies families use vary significantly depending on the nature, magnitude, and timing of each climate
event and whether it appears to be a one-time occurrence, a recurring challenge, or a slow-onset event.
The five types of capital of the household (see Figure 11) play an important role to determine response.
The World Bank presented a stylized characterization of the types of responses to climate events as part of
its Strengthening Financial Resilience in Agriculture: Knowledge Exchange Series (see Figure 13) (Financial
Protection Forum - Managed by World Bank Group, 2022). This view shows us financial services can play a
strong indirect role even when resilience strategies are initially nonfinancial.

Figure 13. Informal risk management mechanisms and market-based solutions

Source: Financial Protection Forum - Managed by World Bank Group, 2022

It took us almost six months to repair our house. We are a poor family. In our family, other
than the children, everyone who was old enough to work migrated to other areas for
income. Some of us worked as laborers in other people’s homes, and some of us worked
on others’ land. Like that, slowly, we made repairs and built small houses.

Bangladesh, Male, Farmer, 21-30

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Maladaptation to climate change carries risks

Those most susceptible to the effects of climate shocks and stresses can find it risky to plan and implement
adaptation strategies, especially if they are based on limited knowledge and viewed through a lens of cultural
and sociological bias. Certain strategies may make a situation worse and trigger “maladaptation”—when “an
adaptation strategy aimed at a group of people makes them more vulnerable to climate change than they
were before” or when “that strategy redistributes vulnerability so that others who were not beneficiaries
of an adaptation strategy instead become more vulnerable to climate change than they were before the
strategy was implemented” (Schipper, 2020).

Besides wasting precious time and resources, maladaptation can make people even more vulnerable to
climate change (Schipper, 2020). As a result, adaptation strategies often fail even when social inertia is
overcome in efforts to adapt to climate change.

Figure 14. Adaptation and maladaptation outcomes over time

Source: Schipper, 2020

The literature on maladaptation highlights the importance of understanding the context to ensure that
adaptation strategies address both the symptoms and the causes of vulnerability. It is also essential to
ensure that communities most vulnerable to climate change are not excluded from planned adaptation
projects and strategies. Since such communities are often marginalized, their voices are rarely heard – hence
the growing emphasis on locally-led adaptation (MSC, 2024).

Maladaptation can occur when program design does not consider contextual insights. For example, a paper
by Fenton et al., 2017 showed how microfinance can facilitate adaptation by enhancing adaptive capacity,
but can also lead to maladaptive outcomes through over-indebtedness. It notes the importance of improved
product design and integration of microfinance into top-down adaptation programs, such as those
undertaken by the public sector. Yet despite this integration, these run the risk of not being able to sufficiently
reach the local level and support household adaption. In another study, as part of an adaptation strategy,
women in Peru were given access to microcredit to start projects. However, the project saw corresponding
increases in domestic violence as some men became jealous of the women’s success (Schipper, 2020).

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Adaptations meant to address climate impact on livelihoods can also have negative consequences. In
northern Ghana, for example, farmers migrated away from rural areas in search of employment that would
provide additional income. However, this shift led to a labor shortage when farming conditions improved.
In other words, not enough people remained in rural areas to ensure a successful harvest (Schipper, 2020).

Maladaptation can occur with both planned and autonomous adaptation—and for different reasons. With
planned strategies, maladaptation may result from poor design and a lack of contextual experience or
insights. In autonomous adaption strategies, maladaptation more often occurs due to limited information
that leads to “poor choices, lack of support networks to fall back on, and insufficient capacity to undertake
new employment or follow through with the strategies” (Schipper, 2020).

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3
Going beyond
single solutions:
Recommendations
for a new approach

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White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

More needs to be done, given the complex and unpredictable nature of climate shocks and stresses. Such
efforts should ensure that solutions, including financial solutions, can truly respond to the lived experiences
and needs of those most exposed to these impacts. The following section presents a set of recommendations
relevant to the financial sector and other development sectors that have tried to integrate financial services
as part of their climate response.

Do more to understand affected people’s needs, aspirations,

perceptions, and behaviors and recognize the close interrelationships
between these factors
People’s needs, aspirations, perceptions, and behaviors profoundly affect how they respond to climate
change-driven stresses and shocks, including their willingness and ability to get help from the community and
government agencies. Stakeholders must understand these factors as essential to the design interventions
relevant to vulnerable populations and thus provide real impact.

Solution sets must respond to people’s perceptions about the threat of climate change and their ambitions
around adaptation. Perceptions about climate shocks and stresses and available response or support
options vary by gender, geography, and various other dimensions.

Figure 15. Understanding how customer perception informs paths to adaptation

She may pursue adaptation

through alternative income-
generating opportunities or
other approaches to adaptation
(Van den Broeck and Kilic, 2019)

Her awareness and

understanding of the risks
informs her adaptation needs
(Djoudi and Brockhaus, 2011)

She needs to be aware

of the risks she faces
(Debela et al. 2015)

Source: Authors

Placing the end client (the user) at the center of a business is a widely accepted best practice (Harvard
Business School, 2000) that yields more engaged and loyal customers. Decades of experience have shown
that a client-centric approach in the design and delivery of financial services improves their use and impact
(Wright, 2010; CGAP Customer-Centric Guide 2018). This same approach applies to the delivery of products
and services to address climate change (Giri and Aadil, 2021). A deep understanding of how people think and
behave is essential to design solutions that will help vulnerable communities respond to climate change and

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increase their uptake and use. This insight is critical to mitigate the risks of maladaptation that may arise
from unsuitable design or implementation of the adaptive strategies and solutions offered (Schipper, 2020).

The plans I made toward storms and very sunny weather in the forthcoming year 2023 is
that I bought blocks, cement, and stones that I will use to construct [the shed] where I
rear goats. I will also get zinc roofs, which I will use to cover it so that it will be properly
ventilated. I also searched for where [to put the] shed so that when it is sunny, they will
stay in the shed, which has helped us. That is the way I have prepared for 2023. If I had
more money, I could have planned things differently, but as I don’t have it, this is how I
planned my 2023.

Nigeria, Female, Farmer, 31-40

Figure 16. The four factors that inform effective intervention design

Source: Authors

For example, MSC’s recent research in India’s Bihar state found that smallholder farmers needed ways
to reduce water loss in their rice paddies in the face of growing heat and droughts. While many farmers
recognized and aspired to achieve a positive outcome, others were trapped in inertia, status quo bias, or
mistrust of outsiders, and thus continued practices they had used for generations. Further, while local
agricultural institutes advocated zero-tillage approaches that allowed stalks from previous harvests to
protect the soil, some farmers did not perceive them as relevant and continued traditional practices.

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These farming practices have been in our family for generations—we cannot risk trying
new ideas. We have heard of so many people trying new things and failing. We feel what
we do is what is right for our farms.

India, Male, Farmer, 41-50

A patient and empathetic approach from researchers is imperative to gain a deep and nuanced understanding
of complex factors, such as those faced by farmers in India. The approach also calls for in-depth knowledge
of local languages, communities, and sociocultural norms. Employing methods similar to Robert Chamber’s
acclaimed Participatory Rural Appraisal approach or built upon it will likely suit the intended outcomes.
Such methods intentionally seek to support local individuals to analyze and share their outcomes and plan
their activities (Sontakki et al., 2019), and are core to locally-led adaptation.

Take a multisectoral view of climate change

A multisectoral approach and the development of comprehensive responses are vital, given the diversity
of climate change risks and the complexity and interrelated nature of their impacts. This means when
solutions are undertaken, while any sector can lead them, their design and approach should reflect the
multisectoral implications of climate shocks and stresses. These approaches necessarily involve mitigation,
resilience, and adaptation that require changes to individual, household, and community behaviors and
changes to agricultural, enterprise, health, and transportation practices. Although not revelatory, the idea
of a multisectoral view should be emphasized, given that traditional sectorally-focused development silos
continue to prevail and remain easier to implement yet consequentially ignore the comprehensive impacts
of climate shocks and stresses.

Interdependence between different sectors means that poor health, food insecurity, and
poverty cannot be tackled effectively by addressing one sector in isolation. Influencing
sustainable and positive change means adopting a holistic, multisectoral approach to
development.

–MDG Center, East and Southern Africa, 2007

Effective multisectoral approaches require collaboration between government and nongovernmental

organizations backed by academic research and the private sector. Approaches should involve global,
regional, national, and community initiatives. Each multistakeholder and multisector initiative must provide
equally beneficial solutions built on long-term relationships among partners that share risks and rewards.
Also necessary are the exchange of skills, the convergence of social, human, and financial capital, and a
range of technologies to deliver impactful solutions not bound by traditional development silos (Ekesa et
al., 2023).

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Additionally, NGOs should consider climate from an integrated programming perspective that extends
beyond livelihoods. This is more complex and time-intensive than traditional programming but is important
for the sustainability of any climate adaptation or mitigation effort.

Digital solutions can play an important role to facilitate multisectoral approaches—both as a means of
advocacy to optimize practices and as an enabler of choice and, thereby, efficiency for marketing, logistics,
and financial services. For example, the AgriStack and Digital Farmers’ Service under development in India
will ultimately use farmers’ land location and ownership, cropping patterns, and soil health analysis to
advise on suitable seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides. These services will also enable ag-advisories, market
and logistics information, options for a range of financial services, and government benefits, including
support through direct benefit transfers (see Figure 17).

Figure 17. Agristack will be used to develop multiple use cases across public and private sectors through existing databases and
systems.

Source: MSC, 2024, AgriStack – A DPI for farmers and the agriculture ecosystem

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Include women in solution design and implementation

Crucially, women must play an active role in climate adaptation and resilience-building strategies. Solutions
to support women’s approaches to climate adaptation and resilience building should include them in the
design and implementation to understand their distinct needs and aspirations better. Evidence shows
that women may have different priorities to pursue in adaptation, given differences in household financial
decision-making. For example, after a drought in Mali, women sought products to help pay school fees,
whereas men sought products to help them replace lost income (Djoudi and Brockhaus, 2011).

Besides designing solutions, women should also be engaged in their implementation. Communities perform
better during natural disasters when women are involved in leadership roles related to early warning
systems and reconstruction (Sida, 2021). Women are also effective community mobilizers. For example, their
participation in village forestry committees in Nepal improved program implementation results (Ghimire,
2020).

Beyond these types of community and social resilience, farm production and food security can improve in
times of high food prices and price volatility if female farmers can have better access to financial solutions
that consider female asset limitations and risk aversion (de la O Campos et al., 2014). For instance, financial
services that support the purchase of a rainwater harvesting tank can provide a household with easy access
to water for domestic use. Such a measure can eliminate the time-consuming daily task of carrying water,
which typically falls on women and children.

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4 Implications for
financial services
providers

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White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

While vulnerable individuals and households likely rely on several strategies to adapt to climate shocks
and stresses, financial services can play an important role in the solution sets they choose. However, it is
important to note several key lessons:

Barriers to financial inclusion persist

While many see the potential of financial services to support vulnerable people, real barriers impede the
provision of relevant services to bolster climate resilience. In addition, while the most promising solutions
to reach low-income people at scale often rely on a digital financial ecosystem, digital financial solutions in
many countries are still insufficient, inaccessible, unaffordable, or lack resilience to climate risks.

Persistent barriers exist around cash-in and cash-out (CICO) networks in terms of access and liquidity along
with barriers around customer numeracy and literacy—especially for women. Barriers include high delivery
costs, inadequate provider capacity, climate risk modeling issues, high basis risk in insurance products,
and failures to design solutions specifically for women’s needs. These issues will need to be overcome for
financial services to contribute more effectively to climate adaptation and resilience.

Context matters for solution design

Climate shocks and stresses carry different impacts based on geography, type of event, and timeframe. The
financial service needs of vulnerable households also tend to vary considerably before, during, and after
shocks or stresses occur. Financial solution design and delivery must recognize contextual distinctions to
ensure relevant responses – see Figure 18.

As CGAP has pointed out, “Long-term adaptation to water scarcity for a cassava farmer in Northern Nigeria,
for example, is very different from the urgent coping response to a cyclone by an urban market trader in
Dhaka. The strategies each pursues are likely to be very different and require very different things from the
financial sector: One may need a three-year investment loan to build a solar-powered irrigation system,
while the other needs flood insurance, facilitation of inward remittances from family, and short-term working
capital to rebuild damaged inventories after the storm” (Zetterli, 2023).

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 White paper: Elevating the voices of affected people in climate adaptation

Figure 18: Variation in client coping strategies across four countries

Source: (Sebstad and Cohen, 2000)

No single financial product or service can address all needs for climate
adaptation and resilience
An adequate response to a climate event typically involves multiple financial solutions. Parametric rainfall
insurance, for instance, may be considered the most effective financial instrument to help smallholder
farmers cope during a drought. However, credit products that enable ex ante investment in irrigation and
drought-resistant varieties could be even more effective and could even render insurance moot. Similarly,
since agricultural shocks can have a prolonged impact on multiple growing seasons, lending products that
allow rural households to restart their livelihoods quickly and fully may be critical to lowering the ultimate
welfare impact. The most effective solutions may not even involve financial services provision to households
but rather to the market intermediaries and other actors their resilience depends on.

Because of these innovations, the roles women play to address climate change could improve as they gain
better access to formal financial services. For example, they could engage in biodiversity conservation,

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land management, and reforestation (Sida, 2021). Financial services for equipment could also help women
access environmentally friendly technologies, such as better water harvesting and clean cooking facilities—
both relevant to reducing climate change’s impacts in the long run (Ströh de Martinez et al., 2016).

The digital revolution could be key, but must be climate-proof

Innovative business models have made it easier for providers to reach customers, especially women at the
last mile, through a combination of digital data, digital financial services, mobile channels, and platform
approaches with in-person support and expertise. These models also address their mobility, time, and
privacy concerns (Anderson et al., 2023). However, the uptake and usage of these digital tools remain limited.
Only 13% of smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa have registered for any digital service—including
financial services—and only 5% are active (Chandra., R., and Collis, S., 2021).

As the Climate Resilient Agriculture (CRAg) working group of the CIFAR Alliance notes in its whitepaper, “Even
where innovations are ostensibly well engineered for the context, frameworks of understanding, values,
and risk perceptions play a significant role in shaping the diffusion of innovation and hence the adoption
of productivity and resilience enhancing technologies” (CIFAR Alliance Climate Resilient Agriculture (CRAg)
Working Group, 2023). We need to work hard to understand the needs, aspirations, perceptions, and
behaviors that govern the adoption of technologies.

While digital solutions have many advantages, they can also be prone to weather shocks, such as high winds,
flooding, or severe precipitation that damage electricity grids, disrupt telecommunications, and displace
agent networks or other key distribution channels. Digital financial services ecosystems, therefore, must
crucially grow more climate-resilient and adapt to the changing weather conditions.

Figure 19: Evolution of smallholder farming to data-driven agriculture

Source: (Sharma, 2021)

Key lessons, such as these, can help financial service providers design and deliver financial services that
address specific climate-related impacts for vulnerable populations.

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