India Equity Institutional Research II Q4FY25E Earnings Preview II 21st Mar 2025 Page 1

Banking

Q4 FY25E Banking Earnings

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RESEARCH ANALYST
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21 March 2025
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 India Equity Institutional Research II Q4FY25E Earnings Preview II 21st Mar 2025 Page 2

Banking
Growth moderation amid cautious lending; Asset quality to remain under focus
COVERAGE STOCKS MARKET DATA
Target Close 1M (%) YTD (%)
Coverage Rating CMP Upside
(INR)
Nifty 23,191 1.7 (2.3)
Axis Bank Ltd BUY 1,054 1,283 21.7%
Sensex 76,348 1.4 (2.9)
Bandhan Bank Ltd ACCUMULATE 142 164 15.5%
Nifty Bank 50,063 2.2 (2.0)
HDFC Bank Ltd BUY 1,769 1,934 9.3%
USD / INR 86.321 (0.3) 0.8
ICICI Bank Ltd BUY 1,322 1,500 13.5%

IndusInd Bank Ltd HOLD 684 687 0.4%

Kotak Mahindra Bank

ACCUMULATE 2,036 2,164 6.3%
Ltd

State Bank of India Ltd BUY 750 915 22.0%

Note: TP and recommendation have been retained from previous update reports; we will review it post detailed Q4FY25E results
analysis and conference call of the said companies. Source: Bloomberg, NSE; Data as of 20th March 2025
SECTOR OVERVIEW

 We anticipate industry credit growth to moderate to ~11.0% by end of FY25E, marking a

sharp decline from 20.2% in FY24. This slowdown is largely attributed to a deceleration in
unsecured loan expansion and persistent stress in the Microfinance (MFI) segment,
which has prompted a more cautious lending approach across the sector.
 The tightening risk appetite among lenders and higher delinquencies in unsecured retail
and MFI loans have led to stricter underwriting norms and cautious lending strategies.
As a result, the industry is likely to witness a more measured credit expansion, shifting
focus toward secured lending and risk-adjusted portfolio growth.
 However, the pace of credit growth in FY26E will be influenced by economic recovery,
asset quality trends, and banks' ability to strengthen deposit mobilization strategies.
 As of February 21, 2025, credit and deposit growth have continued to decelerate
compared to Q3FY25, yet credit offtake remains ahead of deposit growth. The credit
offtake reached INR 179.9 Tn, reflecting an 11.0% YoY increase, a deceleration from last
year’s 12.0% growth rate (excluding HDFCB merger impact). This slowdown can be
attributed to a) a higher base effect from the previous year, b) RBI's regulatory
measures aimed at curbing excess liquidity and managing systemic risks, c) market
concerns over an elevated credit-to-deposit ratio, prompting banks to adopt a more
cautious lending approach.
 Credit card spending in January 2025 grew 10.8% YoY to INR 1.84 Tn, though there was a
marginal sequential decline, reflecting a moderation in discretionary spending. On a per-
card spend basis, industry-wide spending averaged INR 16,910, marking a modest 1.1%
YoY growth.
 While credit card spending and issuances continue to expand, the YoY decline in per-
card spending for major issuers and slower net additions indicate a potential
moderation in growth momentum. The industry's near-term trajectory will depend on
discretionary spending patterns, macroeconomic conditions, and competitive pricing
strategies among issuers.

RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Dipak Saha, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5408 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
 India Equity Institutional Research II Q4FY25E Earnings Preview II 21st Mar 2025 Page 3

Banking

 The MSME credit segment is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory in Q4FY25E,
supported by strong credit demand from smaller businesses and policy initiatives promoting
financial inclusion.
 On the liability side, as of February 21, 2025, total banking sector deposits reached INR 222.8 Tn,
reflecting a 10.3% YoY growth, slightly lower than the 10.6% growth recorded last year (excluding
merger impact). Sequentially, deposits declined marginally by 0.2% due to ongoing challenges in
deposit mobilization despite banks’ intensified efforts to strengthen their liability franchises.
 We expect the credit book to grow by 10.5% YoY (+3.8% QoQ) as of March 31, 2024, while deposits
will grow by 12.4% YoY (+7.1% QoQ) for our coverage universe.
 Net Interest Margins (NIMs) in the banking sector are expected to remain largely stable or see a
slight decline in Q4FY25E, influenced by shifts in loan mix, funding costs, and competitive pricing
dynamics. Banks with a diversified loan book and strong liability franchises are likely to maintain
stable margins, supported by repricing benefits in their corporate and retail loan portfolios.
However, banks with a higher concentration in high-yielding portfolios, such as unsecured retail
and MFI loans, may experience some margin compression, as growth in these segments has slowed
amid rising delinquencies and cautious lending policies.
 We expect Net Interest Income (NII) to grow by 7.2% YoY and 4.3% QoQ for our coverage. NIMs will
continue to see a contraction QoQ in the range of 0-15 bps QoQ on the back of a shift in the loan
portfolio mix.
 The banking sector’s asset quality remains largely stable on the back of healthy recoveries,
proactive provisioning, and a well-diversified loan mix. However, IndusInd Bank (IIB) and Bandhan
Bank will continue to face asset quality challenges, particularly in MFI portfolios.
Valuation
 The banking sector outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with a shift towards measured credit
expansion amid tighter underwriting in riskier segments.
 Asset quality risks persist, particularly in personal loans and microfinance, warranting a cautious
stance. However, the sector remains resilient, supported by strong capital buffers and a shift
toward secured lending, ensuring long-term stability.
 Banks are currently trading at 1.7x P/BV for FY27E, significantly below their five-year average
industry P/B multiple of 2.8x. This valuation discount reflects concerns around margin compression,
elevated credit costs, and moderation in credit growth.
 ICICI Bank and SBIN remain our preferred picks, given their strong resilience to macroeconomic
challenges. Both banks demonstrate robust business momentum, stable asset quality, and
superior return ratios, positioning them well for outperformance in a challenging environment.

Nifty Bank P/B and 5 Yr Average

3.5 3.2

3.0 2.7

2.5
2.0 1.6
1.5
1.0
Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-23 Sep-23 Mar-24 Sep-24 Mar-25

P/B (x) Median (2.7x) Min (1.6x) Max (3.2x)

Source: NSE

RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Dipak Saha, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5408 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
 India Equity Institutional Research II Q4FY25E Earnings Preview II 21st Mar 2025 Page 4

Banking

Credit offtake for the industry remains range bound over the last 6 months with marginal
decline in February 2025
200 178.7 179.9 25.0%
171.3 175.9
180 164.3 168.8
160 20.0%
136.8
140 118.9 20.2%
120 108.5 15.0%
17.3%
100 15.0%
80 13.0% 10.0%
11.3% 11.4% 11.0%
60 9.6%
40 5.0%
20 5.6%
0 0.0%

Q3FY25
Q1FY25
FY22

FY23

FY24

Q2FY25

Jan-25
FY21

Feb-25
Industry Credit (INR in Tn) YoY Growth

Source: RBI fortnight data

Deposit growth still witnessing slower pace despite a strong push from the banks in FY25E
250 16.0%
14.0%
200
13.5% 12.0%

150 11.4% 11.1% 11.6% 11.5% 10.0%

10.3% 10.3%
9.6% 8.0%
8.9%
100 6.0%
4.0%
50
204.8
180.4

220.7

222.8
164.7

212.9

215.2

221.3
151.1

2.0%
0 0.0%
Q1FY25

Q3FY25
FY22

FY23
FY21

FY24

Q2FY25

Jan-25

Feb-25

Industry Deposit (INR in Tn) YoY Growth

Source: RBI fortnight data

Coverage stock returns 1 Yr (%)

7.2% 22.3% 22.2% 14.9% 0.7% 1.8%

-21.6% -53.9%
HDFCB

ICICIBC

SBIN

IIB
BANNIFTY

KMB

Bandhan
AXSB

Source: NSE

RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Dipak Saha, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5408 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
 India Equity Institutional Research II Q4FY25E Earnings Preview II 21st Mar 2025 Page 5

Banking
Exhibit 1: Quarterly result expectation for companies under coverage
Q4FY25E (INR in Mn) Outperform Base Underperform View
HDFCB
• We expect Net Interest Income (NII) to grow by 14.8%
YoY/ 8.9% QoQ, despite muted credit growth,
NII 340,531 333,854 327,177 supported by a reduction in excess borrowings. The
bank’s focus on optimizing its liability mix and
rationalizing high-cost borrowings is likely to provide a
key boost to margins, even as overall loan growth
remains moderate.
PPOP 295,747 281,664 267,581
• HDFC Bank is expected to witness a continued
moderation in loan growth, with a 4.5% YoY and 3.1%
QoQ increase, as the bank prioritizes managing its
credit-to-deposit (CD) ratio.
PAT 194,122 184,878 175,634
• In our base case scenario, we anticipate PPOP to
decline by 3.8% YoY, primarily due to the high base
effect from elevated non-interest income in the
previous year. However, on a sequential basis, we
Advances 26,486,139 25,966,803 25,447,467 expect PPOP to grow by 12.7% QoQ, supported by
improving core operating metrics.
• In the base case scenario, net profit is expected to
grow by 12.0% YoY/ 10.5% QoQ. However, we note a
Deposits 27,941,850 27,393,970 26,846,091 potential deviation of +/- 5.0%, driven by factors such
as non-interest income volatility, and changes in
provisioning levels.
ICICIBC
• ICICI Bank’s loan book is expected to grow 13.5% YoY /
NII 213,054 208,877 204,699 2.3% QoQ, with broad-based expansion across all
segments. Deposit growth is projected at 13.6% YoY /
5.5% QoQ, primarily driven by term deposits.
PPOP 176,525 173,064 169,603
• In our base case scenario, PPOP is expected to grow
by 15.1% YoY, supported by steady operating income
growth and improved cost efficiencies. The cost-to-
PAT 122,623 120,218 117,814
income ratio is likely to decline to 38.6% (vs. 39.2% in
Q4FY24), resulting from better operating leverage and
disciplined expense management.
Advances 13,714,066 13,445,163 13,176,259
• In an outperform scenario, ICICBC is expected to see
PAT growth of 14.5% YoY, driven by its operating
Deposits 16,364,779 16,043,901 15,723,023 performance.

AXSB
• In our base case scenario, we expect NII to grow by
NII 139,805 137,064 134,323 4.7% YoY, supported by 8.0% YoY growth in advances.
However, deposit growth is projected at 6.4% YoY /
3.8% QoQ, primarily led by healthy traction in time
deposits. The credit-to-deposit ratio is expected to
PPOP 115,982 112,604 109,226 remain largely stable for the quarter.
• We expect Net Interest Margins (NIMs) to remain
stable during the quarter, as funding cost pressures
PAT 72,259 68,818 65,377
are unlikely to escalate further.
• We expect AXSB's profitability to decline by 3.5% YoY
(+9.2% QoQ) in the base scenario, on account of higher
Advances 1,063,158 1,042,312 1,021,465
provisions in the unsecured portfolio. Meanwhile, the
cost-to-income ratio is projected to improve slightly to
46.4% in Q4FY25E, compared to 46.9% in Q4FY24,
Deposits 1,160,165 1,137,417 1,114,668 reflecting tighter cost management amid stable
funding conditions.
RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Dipak Saha, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5408 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
 India Equity Institutional Research II Q4FY25E Earnings Preview II 21st Mar 2025 Page 6

Banking
Exhibit 1: Quarterly result expectation for companies under coverage
Q4FY25E (INR in Mn) Outperform Base Underperform View
IIB
• IIB is expected to witness moderation in credit
growth, primarily due to a slowdown in its MFI
NII 54,326 53,260 52,195 portfolio, amid rising stress in the segment. Credit
growth is expected at 10.4% YoY, while deposits are
expected to grow by 10.1% YoY, though some
outflows may occur due to negative sentiment
surrounding recent news flow.
PPOP 22,237 21,589 20,942 • We expect Net Interest Income (NII) to remain
relatively flat, declining 0.9% YoY while growing 1.9%
QoQ. The muted growth is attributed to moderation
in credit expansion and higher borrowing costs,
driven by the issuance of certificates of deposit at
PAT 992 944 897 elevated rates.
• We expect net profit to decline significantly by 96.0%
YoY and 93.3% QoQ, primarily due to the one-time
adjustment related to the derivative accounting
discrepancy.
Advances 3,867,048 3,791,224 3,715,399
• The bank recently disclosed a derivative accounting
discrepancy, impacting 2.35% (~INR 15.0-16.0 Bn) of its
net worth as of December 31, 2024. The financial
impact will be reflected in Q4FY25E P&L, affecting
interest income and swap costs, while the general
Deposits 4,361,204 4,234,179 4,107,153 reserve remains unaffected.

SBIN
• We expect NII to grow by 3.3% YoY and 3.8% QoQ,
supported by 13.0% YoY growth in advances, with
NII 438,974 430,367 421,760 sustained traction in the corporate loan portfolio. The
bank's loan growth remains healthy, driven by strong
credit demand in the corporate segment, while retail
and SME segments continue to provide steady
PPOP 282,703 269,241 255,779 support. On the liability side, deposit growth is
projected at 10.9% YoY, with the CASA ratio expected
at 39.3%.
• In our base case scenario, PPOP is expected to grow
PAT 190,777 181,693 172,608 by 14.3% QoQ, driven by the normalization of
employee expenses, which had previously weighed
on operating efficiency. SBIN’s ability to maintain
operating efficiency amid evolving margin dynamics
will be key in driving profitability in the coming
Advances 42,691,968 41,854,871 41,017,773
quarters.
• In our base case scenario, we forecast net profit to
decline by 12.2% YoY (+7.6% QoQ), primarily due to
Deposits 55,608,346 54,517,987 53,427,627 higher credit costs compared to Q4FY24 and the
absence of provision reversals that had previously
supported earnings especially in Q3FY25.

RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Dipak Saha, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5408 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
 India Equity Institutional Research II Q4FY25E Earnings Preview II 21st Mar 2025 Page 7

Banking
Exhibit 1: Quarterly result expectation for companies under coverage
Q4FY25E (INR in Mn) Outperform Base Underperform View
BANDHAN
• In our base case scenario, we anticipate net interest
income (NII) to remain flat on a YoY basis, with a
NII 29,180 28,608 28,036 modest 1.1% QoQ increase. The muted growth
trajectory is primarily driven by elevated cost of funds
and a deceleration in the high-yielding loan book,
which is weighing on overall margin expansion.
PPOP 19,487 18,559 17,631
• Bandhan Bank is expected to report credit growth of
13.5% YoY / 7.9% QoQ, supported by healthy expansion
in non-EEB segments, reflecting diversification in its
loan portfolio, while the EEB (Emerging
PAT 8,529 8,123 7,717 Entrepreneurs Business) portfolio remains a drag.
• In our base case scenario, we expect net profit to
exhibit a strong recovery trend, benefiting from a low
base effect from the previous year, which was
Advances 1,402,401 1,374,902 1,347,404
impacted by elevated provisions. While margin
pressures persist due to higher funding costs, the
anticipated moderation in provisioning expenses is
likely to provide a significant tailwind to earnings
Deposits 1,544,547 1,514,262 1,483,977 growth.

KMB
• We expect Net Interest Income (NII) to grow by 6.7%
YoY and 2.4% QoQ, supported by a 15.0% YoY increase
in advances. The bank’s loan growth momentum
NII 75,175 73,701 72,227
remains strong, with a potential acceleration in credit
expansion in the later part of Q4FY25E.
• Following the RBI’s upliftment of restrictions, Kotak
Mahindra Bank has resumed onboarding new
customers and issuing fresh credit cards, which is
PPOP 56,466 54,821 53,177 expected to drive a healthy pickup in retail and
unsecured credit loans.
• Deposits are expected to grow by 14.0% YoY and 8.1%
QoQ, reflecting healthy liability franchise expansion.
However, the CASA ratio is likely to moderate to 42.0%
PAT 36,572 35,507 34,442 (vs. 45.5% in Q4FY24).
• We expect the cost-to-income ratio to rise to 47.5% in
Q4FY25 (vs. 44.8% in Q4FY24), driven by increased
investments in infrastructure and expansion
initiatives to strengthen the bank’s presence.
Advances 4,411,363 4,324,866 4,238,368 • In our base case scenario, we assume higher
provisions on a YoY basis, given the low base of the
previous year. As a result, PAT is expected to decline
by 14.1% YoY, reflecting the impact of elevated
provisioning expenses. However, on a sequential
basis, PAT is expected to grow by 7.4% QoQ.
Deposits 5,220,434 5,118,073 5,015,711

RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Dipak Saha, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5408 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
 India Equity Institutional Research II Q4FY25E Earnings Preview II 21st Mar 2025 Page 8

Banking

Axis Bank 3-Yr PB (x) Bandhan Bank 3-Yr PB(x)

3.3 3.8
Max, 3.2x
3.3
Max, 2.5x
2.5 2.8

2.3
Avg, 2.1x
1.8 Avg, 1.7x
1.8
Min, 1.6x 1.3
1.0 0.8 Min, 1.0x

HDFC Bank 3-Yr PB (x) ICICI Bank 3-Yr PB (x)

4.5 4.0

Max, 3.7x Max, 3.5x

3.5
3.5
Avg, 2.9x 3.0
Avg, 3.0x
2.5
2.5 Min, 2.6x
Min, 2.4x
2.0

1.5 1.5

IndusInd Bank 3-Yr PB(x) Kotak Mahindra Bank 3-Yr PB(x)

2.6 5.5
Max, 4.9x
Max, 2.2x
2.2 4.5

1.8 Avg, 3.4x

3.5
Avg, 1.7x
1.4
2.5
1.0 Min, 2.2x
Min, 1.1x 1.5

SBI 3-Yr PB(x)

2.3
Max, 1.9x

1.8

Avg, 1.5x
1.3
Min, 1.2x

0.8

Source: Bloomberg/ NSE

RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Dipak Saha, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5408 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
 India Equity Institutional Research II Q4FY25E Earnings Preview II 21st Mar 2025 Page 9

Banking
Rating Legend (Expected over a 12-month period)

Our Rating Upside

Buy More than 15%
Accumulate 5% – 15%
Hold 0 – 5%
Reduce -5% – 0
Sell Less than – 5%

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also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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DIPAK Digitally signed by
DIPAK SAHA

SAHA Date: 2025.03.21

Registered Office: 1102, Stock Exchange Tower, Dalal Street, Fort, Mumbai – 400 001.
Phone: 91-22-6633 5000; Fax: 91-22-6633 8060

15:02:54 +05'30'
Corporate Office: 701-702, DLH Plaza, Opp Shoppers Stop, S V Road, Andheri (W), Mumbai 400 058
Phone: 91-22-66535000
Compliance Officer: Varsha Shinde
Email: [email protected]

RESEARCH ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576
Dipak Saha, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5408 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>
www.krchoksey.com
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