PREDICTORS OF POLITICAL RE-ELECTION

IN LUCENA CITY

Jaela Marie Nuñez

Antonio Miguel G. Palanca

Southern Luzon State University

College of Administration, Business, Hospitality, and Accountancy

2024
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

Title Page i

Table of Contents ii

Chapter I: Introduction

Background of the Study 3

Objectives of the Study 4

Significance of the Study 5

Scope and Limitation 6

Definition of Terms 7

Chapter II: Review of Literature

Theoretical Framework 26

Research Paradigm 29

Hypothesis 30

Chapter III: Methodology

Research Locale 31

Unit of Analysis/Respondents/Treatments 31

Research Design 32

Procedures/ Data Collection 32

Research Instrument 33

Data Analysis 33

Statistical Treatment 34

References Cited 35
 Chapter I

INTRODUCTION

(Vedantu, n.d.) An election is considered the prime pillar of democracy. Not only

for the country but the election can also be conducted in any case where public opinion

matters the most. It is also defined as a decision-making process within a group of people

sharing similar interests. In a democratic country, every person has the right to showcase

his political views. This is called suffrage. However, not all ages are able to exercise it.

According to 1987 Philippine Constitution, suffrage may be exercised by all citizens of

the Philippines not otherwise disqualified by law, who are at least 18 years old, have

resided in the country for at least one year, and in the place, they plan to vote for at least

six months prior to the election, without any literacy, property, or other substantive

requirements being imposed.

Undoubtedly, we can observe that it is a peaceful and efficient method for

selecting political leaders, as citizens cast their votes to choose those aligning with their

views. However, elections also provide an opportunity for citizens to voice their

dissatisfaction and replace undesirable leadership with a better alternative.

After being elected, there is also a term called re-election. It happens when the

incumbents seeking to be elected again in the same position for another term. Re-election

is necessary for assessing and strengthening leadership. Voters scrutinize incumbents'

performance, assessing promises, policies, and accountability. The prospect of re-election

motivates politicians to govern responsibly, address societal challenges, and respond to

constituent needs. It serves as a built-in accountability mechanism, encouraging

continuous improvement and responsiveness to public concerns.

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Furthermore, re-election ensure stability and continuity in governance, crucial for

economic development, social progress, and nation well-being. Leaders' re-election

prevents abrupt shifts, fostering investor confidence, economic growth, and effective

functioning of democratic institutions, thus preventing disruptions and promoting

stability.

In the Philippines, reelection has limitations as stated in the Constitution and other

laws. The President and Vice-President are elected by direct vote for a six-year term, and

the President is not eligible for reelection. No person who has succeeded as President for

more than four years can be qualified for election to the same office at any time. No

Vice-President can serve for more than two successive terms. However, there is no

outright prohibition for a sitting president to run for the lower office. Two past presidents

have run for lower positions: Joseph Estrada, who became mayor Manila, and Gloria

Macapagal Arroyo, who became congresswoman of Pampanga. Additionally, Section 43

of the Local Government Code states that no local elective official can serve more than

three consecutive terms in the same position. This means a local official can run for

reelection twice or serve three terms, occupying the same office for nine consecutive

years. The laws use only the word “consecutive,” this means it allows elected officials to

“rest” after they max out their three terms (for local posts) or two terms (for senatorial),

and then run for the same posts and serve the allowed number of consecutive terms again.

This is the reason why some politicians run for reelection despite of limitation.

In order to assess which variables may lead voters to reelect the incumbents, the

researchers want to study the "Predictors of Political Reelection" via this lens. It is
 3

believed that the outcomes would impact voters, elected officials, and campaigns when it

comes to making decisions about future elections.

Background of the Study

Lucena City is the capital of Quezon Province. It is classified as a highly

urbanized city, and sustains a population of 278,924 as of 2020 census, divided into 33

barangays. Although geographically a part of Quezon Province, it is politically

independent from the latter. In addition, Lucena City is also known as one of the cities

that has incumbent politicians; one example is the father-son tandem, which is the first in

the election history of the city, the provincial capital of Quezon province. Their team also

has the support of two slates of eight councilors, the first in the city’s election history.

The researcher chose this topic so that they could explore political re-elections in Lucena

City. Furthermore, the researcher chose this topic because they wanted to answer the

hanging question: Why? Why do these voters still vote for this incumbent? Is it because

of leadership, human relations, accomplishment of platform, or media influence?

Re-election refers to an incumbent office holder being elected for a further

legislative term. A fundamental element of representative democracy is the ability to

periodically vote in and out representatives through elections. In many democratically

elected legislatures around the world, elected officials are able to serve an unlimited

number of terms in office, and can, therefore, challenge for re-election until they retire or

end up losing an election. (Polyas, Glossary).

According to Hans Gersbach, 2016 “To win, the incumbent has to mobilize all his

forces, including the best-possible performance. Thus, competition would be revived, and

there would be a better chance to re-elect only those office-holders who have performed
 4

well. As the best vote-share of past elections cannot be under matched, competition

would be guaranteed even if an incumbent remains in office for several office terms – in

need of every single vote he can get, he could never afford to perform less well.”

In fact, there are a lot of factors that influence the voters why they still vote for

the same politician. The study of predictors of political re-election delves into

understanding the factors that contribute to the success of incumbent politicians seeking

re-election. So, researchers will analyze a range of variables including leadership, human

relations, platform achievement and media influence. Furthermore, the researcher aims to

To assess the significant difference between the respondents’ profile and their perception

towards predictors of political re-election. Additionally, the researchers chose this study

to Create an infographic based of the result of the study and present it to elected officials,

Comelec and to the people of Lucena City.

Objectives of the Study

The purpose of this paper is to explore the elements that influence voters to

political re-election and highlight their importance in determining electoral results in

Lucena City.

Specifically, the objectives are as follows:

1. To determine the demographic profile of the respondents in Lucena City, in terms

of:

1.1 Age

1.2 Gender

1.3 Barangay

1.4 Educational Attainment

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1.5 Income Status

2. To assess the predictors as the key to re-election based on the perceptions of

voters in Lucena City such as:

1.1 Leadership

1.2 Human Relations

1.3 Accomplishments of Platform

1.4 Media Influence

3. To assess the significant difference between the respondents’ profile and their

perception towards predictors of political re-election.

4. Create an infographic based of the result of the study and present it to elected

officials, Comelec and to the people of Lucena City.

Significance of the Study

The study will provide a research-based information on the predictors to political

re-election and highlight their importance in determining electoral results. The study aims

to gather data from barangays in Lucena City. More specifically, the result of this study

will be relevant to the following:

Elected Officials. They will benefit from this study by being more

knowledgeable about predictors of reelection and to act in accordance with the outcome,

in order to increase one's chances of winning the re-election in the future.

COMELEC/ Commission on Election. The result of the study will help the

COMELEC to give information about predictors of political reelection and use those

things as their basis during creation of information campaign for the upcoming election.
 6

Registered voters. This study will help the voters to become inform by

providing the result of the study through infographics about predictors of political

reelection. This may serve as their foundation for determining what characteristics they

will observe in the next election.

The Bachelor of Public Administration. The outcome of the study will help the

program in conducting extension programs and proposals that foster awareness among

Public Administration students about assessment systems and projects adopted by our

government to improve public service of local government units.

Future researchers. Any further researchers who are interested in expanding on

the data provided by this study will also find it beneficial. It is also an instrument that

they can use to look up related studies.

Scope and Limitations

This study is going to focus on the predictors of political re-election and highlight

their importance in determining electoral results in Lucena City, to evaluate the results

and determine which of the following variables meet the voters’ criteria to predict

political re-elections.

In order to gather more trustworthy data from the locals, this study suggests

researching the whole of Lucena City, Quezon Province. However, there are some

limitations. Due to their distance, a few of the barangays in Lucena City, Quezon

Province, are challenging to get to. Because certain parts of the municipality need a lot of

time to access, the researcher might not be able to collect data. As a result, using reliable

information, the researcher will investigate barangays in Lucena City. The study attempts
 7

to assess which of the variables will be the predictors of political re-election based on the

results' findings.

Definition of Terms

For better understanding of the study, the following terms are defined in the

context of this research;

Accomplishments of Platform it indicates specifically what the elected officials has

been done or achieved during his/her term. It also shows that the politicians keep to their

promises especially what was delivered during election campaigns.

Human Relation is the ability to interact in a healthy manner with others and build

strong relationships.

Leadership pertains to individual or a group of people to influence and guide followers

or members of an organization, society or team.

Media Influence refers to the power and impact that various forms of media, such as

newspapers, magazines, and radio, have on shaping public opinion and attitudes

towards certain events or issues. It encompasses the ability of media outlets to sway

public perception through the dissemination of information or propaganda.

Political re-election is the process by which an incumbent officeholder seeks to be

elected again to their current position. This typically involves campaigning to secure

votes from constituents or members of an electoral body, with the goal of continuing their

term in office for an additional period as allowed by law or regulations.

8
 Chapter II

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

Presented in this chapter are foreign and local literatures and studies gathered

from online journal resources used by the researchers who was seeking of this paper as a

guide in order to have a more accurate study. This related literature will help the

researchers have a better understanding and a wider perspective on the topic gathered.

Additionally, it involves the theoretical framework needed to comprehend the study.

Political Re-election

Michelle Abad (2021), According to Justice Secretary Menardo Guevarra, stated

in Rappler report, reelection in our laws means election to the same office in. In addition,

the 1987 Constitution and the Local Government Code set the number of consecutive

terms an elected official can serve in the same position. The President and Vice-President

are elected by direct vote for a six-year term, and the President is not eligible for

reelection. No person who has succeeded as President for more than four years can be

qualified for election to the same office at any time. No Vice-President can serve for

more than two successive terms. However, there is no outright prohibition for a sitting

president to run for the lower office. Two past presidents have run for lower positions:

Joseph Estrada, who became mayor Manila, and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who became

congresswoman of Pampanga. Additionally, Section 43 of the Local Government Code

states that no local elective official can serve more than three consecutive terms in the

same position. This means a local official can run for reelection twice or serve three

terms, occupying the same office for nine consecutive years.

 9

Another, according to Boggild (2016) Politicians' desire for reelection motivates them

to be responsive to voters' policy preferences. In the traditional view, voters choose between

candidates based on their delivery of favorable outcomes such as ideologically appealing

policies or a prospering economy. However, research in psychology shows that, in addition to

outcomes, people care about procedural fairness and, particularly, impartial decision-makers

who make decisions without personal motives and interests. This, I argue, confronts

politicians with a delicate task: politicians must present voters with favorable policy outcomes

but without appearing as if they pursue these policies based on a personal, vote-maximizing

motive for reelection. He added, Competitive elections are the foundation of every

representative democracy. Elections allow citizens to hold political elites accountable and

motivate politicians to compete for votes and strive for reelection by catering to the needs

and wishes of the electorate.

Also, Aubert, C. & Ding, H. (2022). Allowing elected politicians to run for a

second mandate is an incentive mechanism: It should push them to serve voters’ needs in

order to be reelected.

Furthermore, By Andrea Pedrazzani and Pinto, (2015) In rational choice accounts,

individual politicians are typically assumed to seek election – or re-election in case they

already hold a legislative seat – as this enhances their ability to pursue offices or policies.

Politicians will thus spend time and effort doing what they believe voters will reward in

the next election. Vote-seeking strategies are sought after within a set of political

institutions, which create opportunities and constraints on individual behaviour and shape

the incentives faced by would-be legislators. Regime type, electoral rules, methods for

selecting candidates and the hierarchies of elective offices can be treated as independent
 10

variables, as they are expected to have an impact on the traits of candidates and the

choice of their behavioral repertoire.

In fact, Nichols, L. (2020). Incumbent senators typically have the advantage in

states that lean towards their party, and they may rely on name recognition and approval

ratings to win re-election. Greta Thunberg (2016) agrees by saying that, incumbents

benefit greatly from name recognition and positive media coverage. Incumbents usually

enjoy a name recognition advantage over their challengers. When this is the case, the

challenger has to spend considerable money—which they probably don’t have—trying to

build up name recognition in the state or district. Any incumbent who manages to stay

out of scandal is virtually guaranteed positive coverage in the local media. This is

especially true of local television coverage, which tends to focus on staged events at

which the incumbent appears at events such as a local conference on aging, a local pro-

am golf tournament, or a construction ground-breaking for which the incumbent helped

secure the funds. Rarely does local media focus on how incumbents vote on key issues

and how those votes affect real people.

Moreover, Benjamin Disraele (2020), being a current elected official running for

re-election significantly boosts one's prospects. In the 2018 midterms, 90.5% of

incumbent Senate and House members who sought re-election emerged victorious.

Similarly, in 2020, many incumbents easily won re-election, often by wider margins than

their party's presidential candidate. Incumbents enjoy several key advantages. They tend

to have higher name recognition among voters and can highlight past accomplishments,

such as securing federal funding and jobs for their state or district. Many also serve on

influential congressional committees that shape policies relevant to their region.

 11

Furthermore, they can emphasize their experience and dedication to public service. In the

2018 midterms, several incumbent Democrats, like Joe Donnelly of Indiana, and one

Republican, Dean Heller of Nevada, lost their re-election bids. These losses were partly

due to perceived vulnerability of their seats, leading to substantial external funding

pouring into their opponents' campaigns. Obama's reelection in 2012 stood out as an

anomaly, winning by a narrower margin compared to his initial term.

Leadership

According to article “What is Leadership?” by McKinsey Blog, (2022)

Leadership is a set of behaviors used to help people align their collective direction, to

execute strategic plans. Leadership is about guiding and impacting outcomes, enabling

groups of people to work together to accomplish what they couldn’t do working

individually. In this sense, leadership is something you do, not something you are. Some

people in formal leadership positions are poor leaders, and many people exercising

leadership have no formal authority. It is their actions, not their words, that inspire trust

and energy. Furthermore, Leadership styles are classifications of how a person behaves

while directing, motivating, guiding, and managing groups of people. There are many

leadership styles. Some of the most widely discussed include: authoritarian (autocratic),

participative (democratic), delegative (laissez-faire), transformational, transactional, and

situational. Great leaders can inspire political movements and social change. They can

also motivate others to perform, create, and innovate. As you start to consider some of the

people who you think of as great leaders, you can immediately see that there are often

vast differences in how each person leads. “How to Lead: 6 Leadership Styles and

Frameworks” By Kendra Cherry MSEd,

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Additionally, Candidate characteristics play a significant role in influencing

voting decisions. Voters often assess various personal attributes, qualifications, and

characteristics of candidates when making their electoral choices. These factors can shape

voters’ perceptions, attitudes, and preferences, ultimately influencing their decision to

support a particular candidate. One important characteristic that voters consider is the

candidate’s experience and qualifications. Voters tend to evaluate candidates based on

their educational background, professional accomplishments, and prior political

experience. Candidates with a track record of relevant achievements or expertise in areas

of importance to voters may be perceived as more competent and capable of effectively

fulfilling the responsibilities of the position they seek (Nai and Maier 2016). It is

important to note that the relative importance of candidate characteristics can vary across

different electoral contexts, cultural factors, and voter demographics. Additionally, the

salience of candidate attributes may differ depending on the specific office being sought

(e.g., presidential, legislative, or local positions). Understanding the significance of

candidate characteristics in voting decisions provides insights into leadership style.

“Factors Influencing Voting Decision: A Comprehensive Literature Review” (Kulachai

et.al, 2023)

In fact, the study of the researchers has stated that effective leadership is a

significant component in bridging the political gap (Cleavenger & Munyon, 2013) It is

said that effective leadership is essential not because people agree but because they

disagree so frequently (Hood 2018). The drive for effective leadership is the individual

attributes of leaders and followers (Madanchian et al., 2017). Furthermore, it was

emphasized that even in unique circumstances, countries could move past conflict and
 13

end polarization rather than entrusting exclusive responsibility to political leaders: the job

must begin with everyone (Brooks, 2019). Leadership Styles refers to a leader's behavior

when directing, motivating, and managing others. It also determines how they strategist

and implement plans while accounting for stakeholders' expectations and their team's

well-being (Becker, 2021). Situational Leadership II is the most recent form of the

Situational Leadership Model (Thompson & GIaso, & 2015). In the SLII, leadership style

is defined as the shape of behavior used by leaders; this shape of actions goes into two

essential classes characterized by Situational Leadership Model II as Directive and

Supportive Behaviors (Al-Khamaiseh et al., 2020). Leaders have used a variety of

practices to meet a person's developmental needs on a specific objective and assignment,

where the leaders make concrete goals and intend to watch and monitor performance as

well as give instructions (Meier, 2016). “Leadership styles as predictors of leadership

effectiveness among Filipino youth leadership” (Lusung et.al,2023)

Furthermore, there is an article “Revisiting Duterte’s leadership style” (P.Y.

Deligiro, 2022) saying that Former President Duterte received both praise and contempt

from the Filipinos. Some argued that he was unfit to run a country despite his career as a

Davao City mayor. On the other hand, those who saw progress in Davao believed that

Duterte can develop the entire country to be as disciplined and advanced as Davao.

Duterte recognized him as a strongman. Human rights experts and organizations were

quick to condemn the ‘War on Drugs’ by deeming it as a tragic waste of human life. It

can also be an interpretation of Duterte’s leadership style, where many commented to be

ill-prepared, especially since the scope and limitations of running a nation are different

from a city. Years later, Duterte continued to demonstrate his leadership style governed
 14

by firm decisions and aggressiveness to assert his domination in crises and situations. As

many people know, the incumbent president doesn’t mince his words when asked about

his opinion. He doesn’t shy away from cussing or challenging personalities like Pope

Francis I and former USA president Barack Obama. Duterte also drops truth bombs on

several government agencies and institutions in the country, which almost always

surprises the public.

Moreover, according to research article “Managing the Legacy of Long-Term

Leaders: The Curious Evolution of Leadership Styles in the German Chancellery”

(Ludger Helms, 2023) we consider leadership style to largely flow from, and reflect, a

leader’s personality. While certain skills can be developed and improved, by gaining

experience or training, the overall style reflecting the deep-seated personality traits of a

leader is much less likely to change. It has been shown to be largely stable even when

actors take on different institutional positions or roles (see Cuhadar et al. Citation2017).

However, it is important to note that the key dependent variable of this inquiry is not

leadership style as such, but the nature of the succession to a long-term leader and its

aftermath, which is strongly shaped by outgoing and incoming leaders’ styles.

Human Relations

In the Philippines, elections are the most eagerly awaited events. It is scheduled to

allow us to have a say in governing bodies. Since we can't all be in government, we select

the best candidate. between us. In fact, it is thought that the election serves as the main

means of deciding who has Political control over both national and local government.

According to “Factors Influencing Voting Decision: A Comprehensive Literature

Review” by Waiphot Kulachai, (2023) The relationship between human and voting
 15

decisions is a complex and multifaceted topic that has been studied extensively by

political scientists and sociologists. While there is no single consensus on the precise

nature of this relationship, research suggests that human relation can have a significant

influence on voting patterns. In addition, Recent studies have been probing the

connection between EI and political engagement, uncovering intriguing connections.

Emotions can offer shortcuts or heuristics that influence how individuals evaluate

political stimuli. For instance, a voter might feel fear when considering certain policies,

leading them to oppose those policies even if a logical evaluation might suggest

otherwise. Simultaneously, cognitive processes can also influence how one interprets and

responds to emotional experiences, shaping the direction and intensity of political

attitudes. Human relations refer to the ability to interact in a healthy manner with others

and build strong relationships. From the perspective of managers in a company, it

involves the process of creating systems and communication channels to enable group

employee relationships as well as strong one-on-one relationships Voting is considered to

be an individual decision determined by individual characteristics such as moral

priorities, beliefs, expectations and values.

The present research focuses on the role of values. Values are related to a wide

spectrum of human behaviour the present study assesses how values relate to political

behaviour, and more specifically, to voting behavior.

Moreover “The re-election of corrupt mayors: context, relational leadership and

level of corruption” Trosi & Alfano, (2022) This study examines why citizens re-elect

corrupt mayors, adopting a conceptual framework that considers two mitigating factors in

punishing corrupt leaders: first, a strong relationship between the mayor and the citizens;
 16

second, a low level of corruption that may be considered negligible by the citizens. Both

factors are contingent on local contexts. Thus, the study investigates in clustered local

contexts, the impact of variables related to the mayor-citizen (taking account of the

duration of the political career, party membership and trasformismo/ party-switching) and

the level of corruption on mayoral re-election. The results shows that the relationship

between the mayor and the citizens is a mitigating factor that works homogeneously

across contexts, albeit based on different factors. With regard to low levels of corruption

as a mitigating factor, evidence of this is found only in medium and highly developed

communities. The theoretical and policy implications are examined.

According to “Electrocal choices and basic values of Russian” Tatarko &

Mironava (2017) The current study is unique in two ways. First, the present study is the

first to explore a possible connection between the basic values of Russians and their

political choices. What basic 4values motivated people to vote for the current president,

the leader of the communist party or a representative of the right-wing opposition?

Second, this study is the first to apply Schwartz’s refined theory of basic human values

(which includes 19 rather than 10 values) to research on political behaviour. Basic human

values Individual basic values include the basic principles and beliefs one holds regarding

what is desirable and important. Values guide behaviour across situations, including

political behaviour.

As the current study only considers individual behaviour (voting), it utilizes the

theory of individual values. Every individual holds many values, each with its own

importance for that person. Individuals differ in the importance they give to the same

values. The existence and strength of the relations between values and political behaviour
 17

have already been addressed in previous research, with a clear link between basic human

values and political choices. The existence of this link was proven in different cultural

contexts and in different political systems These papers suggest that people express their

most important values through their political choices; people’s values influence their

political choices in addition, these studies consider the psychological mechanisms

through which individual values influence political behaviour. First, basic values lead to

the formation of certain political values within an individual, which directly impact their

political behavior Second, values, being abstract principles, reflect human needs. As

such, these needs motivate people to make particular political choices which they believe

will ensure the satisfaction of those needs. These assumptions form the basis for the first

hypothesis of the study.

Recent study shows “Political Para-Social Relationship as a Predictor of Voting

Preferences in the Israeli 2019 Elections” Tsfati et.al (2021) Political Para-Social

Relationships and Other Views of Electoral Politics Naturally, people tend to develop

political para-social relationship with politicians they like, that is, with politicians toward

which they feel an overall general sympathy. The concept of PPSR is thus expected to be

correlated with, but distinct from, general feelings of sympathy toward the candidates

(typically operationalized in the literature as candidate thermometer ratings). However,

whereas liking is a generic and undertheorized construct which can be used toward

inanimate objects as well as people, PPSR brings to the study of electoral politics a rich

intellectual tradition from mass communication research that highlights the relational

nature of feelings toward political figures. PPSR provides a narrower and more precise

definition of how voters feel toward candidates than liking and thus offers a better
 18

understanding of these feelings. Yes, they tend to like them but more importantly, they

feel as if they have a connection to them, they understand them and are understood by

them, and they share a common history and interest.

The notion of PPSR (e.g., Gabriel et al., 2018) suggests that over and above

voting because one agrees with or identifies with a political party or ideological platform,

people may vote because they feel personally connected to a candidate and develop an

imaginary relationship with him or her. We thus suggest that using PPSR, rather than

liking, is a more fruitful tool to understand and explore the relationships of voters to

candidates.

A para-social approach to how voters perceive political leaders should be viewed

as an accompaniment to more traditional work on citizens’ perceptions of candidate traits

(Hardy, 2017; Laustsen & Bor, 2017; Warner & Banwart, 2016), that are well-known as

predictors of voting intentions. Building on a social identity-based approach to politics,

the combination of understanding, empathy, and responsiveness speaks to the degree to

which a given political leader is seen as being part of a citizen’s group. A fellow group

member better understands a given voter’s needs, empathizes with his/her lot in life, and

is seen as being more responsive to that voter’s concerns (i.e., friends help friends). The

study of political para-social relationships should be viewed as offering a direct

assessment of the goodwill dimension of citizens’ perceptions of their political leaders. It

can be seen as a measure of how good a candidate is as a “Drinking Buddy,” a metaphor

suggesting that voters favor a candidate they consider to be assertive, responsive, and

authentic for voters, the relationship between voters and politicians they do not know in

person had always been para-social by definition, although early in the 20th century most
 19

voters cast their ballots on the basis of ideology and identity, and less on the basis of a

personal connection.

The Impact of Candidates’ Political Connections on Voters' Expressed support in

Pakistan, Callen and khan (2015) This study took place in the context of the 2015 local

government elections in the rural Sargodha district in Punjab, Pakistan, the most

populous province in the country. Approximately 50% of voters in focus groups in this

study were undecided about whom to vote for weeks before the election.

In this setting, local candidates who have strong connections with higher-level politicians

inspire greater confidence among voters—a factor that may influence their choices in

local elections. In Sargodha, participants in focus groups for this study demonstrated high

knowledge of a local candidate’s connections, and nearly three-fourths of focus groups

declared political connections as an extremely important reason to support a local

candidate. In addition, a majority of focus group members expressed a deep concern for

services that went beyond the jurisdiction of local union councils and nearly 50 percent

revealed that they would be willing to support an opposition or independent candidate in

the election if they were well-connected and willing to use their connections to deliver

services locally.

Accomplishments of Platform

According to (Heberlig, E. S., et. al 2017), It seems straightforward that political

advancement would be based on politicians’ accomplishments in office. Voters should

want to reward politicians who have demonstrated their competence in office. Apart from

the effects of the economy and war on presidential campaigns, there has been little direct

examination of whether, and if so how, specific performance in office is related to

 20

politicians’ career decisions. Part of the reason for this dearth of research is that voters

are generally thought to have very little knowledge, beyond party identification and name

recognition, about most politicians. This is particularly true for local offices which

typically do not focus on divisive issues that draw intense media coverage and typically

do not involve substantial campaign spending.

Additionally, the personal integrity and trustworthiness of candidates are also

influential factors. Voters value honesty, ethical conduct, and transparency in their

elected representatives. Candidates who are perceived as trustworthy and credible are

more likely to garner support from voters who prioritize these qualities. Candidates with

a track record of relevant achievements or expertise in areas of importance to voters may

be perceived as more competent and capable of effectively fulfilling the responsibilities

of the position they seek. (Kulachai et al., 2023)

For instance, incumbent who absence professionalism or integrity are going to be

voted out, while skillful and ethical incumbents will be maintained. As cited by (Samuels,

2020), The people of Tajikistan have voted overwhelmingly to allow their authoritarian

president to rule indefinitely. Voter Nazir Saidzoda told AFP: “Rahmon brought us

peace, he ended the war, and he should rule the country for as long as he has the strength

to.”

As well as, Perillo wrote in a Facebook post, thanking his constituents for

reelecting him. He said, "Maybe it's because I'm a WWII veteran, or an 'old guy'

(hopefully not), or maybe it's because you read my flyer highlighting our

accomplishments over the last 4 years. My hope, however, is that it's because you see that
 21

I care about our town and the people who live in it above anything else." Article wrote by

Page, S. (2021, November 3)

Furthermore, Good economic prospects are found to positively affect reelection

and mayors of municipalities with relatively high expenditures on investments are more

likely to be reelected. We also provide weak evidence that a larger fiscal autonomy is

likely to increase political turnover. (Sarpietro, 2014). As well as, in the study of (De

Paula Kopp, 2017) the idea that elevated levels of expenditures on government

advertising might increase the probability of reelection falls in line with well-established

theories on the political economy of elections. Incumbents deploy resources strategically

in terms of the type and timing of government investments to maximize the probability of

reelection. Classic examples of incumbent tactics include monetary or infrastructure

expansion prior to elections. Investments in public hospitals, schools, or roads just before

elections is commonplace in Brazil.

Nevertheless, according to (Heberlig, E. S., et. al 2017) if politicians are

interested in seeking other (higher) offices—and we generally assume that they are—we

would expect that have accomplishments to tout to voters would be a core part of the

decision to run. At the least, an ambitious politician would want to time his or her

decision to run based in part of have recent accomplishments to include in his or her

message to voters. Only fighting crime successfully increased the probability that mayors

win reelection and none of the accomplishments are related to whether they succeed in

their quest for higher office. This is likely due to the fact that election outcomes are

dependent on more than one candidate’s resume. Elections depend on the opponent’s

experience and accomplishments, the national economy and political environment, and
 22

voter’s willingness to consider qualifications other than party identification and name

recognition. It is also likely that accomplishments that are seen as unique to big-city

environments do not resonate with voters outside the city. So having a record of short-

term accomplishment increases the probability that the mayor will decide that the time is

now to run, but it is apparently not sufficient to outweigh all the other elements of the

choice that voters consider.

Media Influence

As stated by (Kulachai et al., 2023), Individuals who consume media aligned with

their own political beliefs may be more likely to have their views reinforced, while

exposure to diverse media sources can lead to a more balanced and nuanced

understanding of political issues. Moreover, media coverage of political campaigns,

debates, and candidate performances can influence individuals’ perceptions and

evaluations of candidates (Basil et al. 2018). Factors such as personal beliefs, social

networks, and other information sources also interact with media and have an influence

on voting behavior. In summary, media influence significantly shapes voting decisions.

Media exposure can shape individuals’ attitudes, knowledge, and perceptions of political

candidates and issues, potentially influencing their voting preferences and evaluations of

candidates.

In addition, according to (Gil de Zúñiga, Weeks, & Ardèvol-Abreu, 2017), the

utilization of social media outlets for political news and information is relatively new, as

popular social media platforms have garnered widespread popularity and increased

exponentially within the past decade (Clement, 2019). The main platforms Americans use

political communication are Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and Instagram. Although

 23

people still seek out news on television, in newspapers, and on radio, the prevalence of

the internet and social media increases the likelihood of users being indirectly exposed to

news, whether that was their intention or not.

Furthermore, in the study of Wolton, Stephane (2019) turning to the unbiased

media environment, the news provider, like the voter, seeks to maximize the likelihood

that a moderate incumbent is reelected and an extreme incumbent replaced. The outlet

thus truthfully discloses all of its information. The voter is perfectly informed about the

incumbent’s type and effectively screens politicians. As a result, an unbiased news

provider is optimal for selection.

In fact, based on the study of (Perse & Lambe, 2016), some politicians, who use

the media for reelection and to gain support for their political goals, seem to accept

without question a view of strong media impact. During the 1980s, for example, Jesse

Helms, a powerful Republican Senator from North Carolina, was interested in taking over

CBS so that he could shape its news coverage (presumably to eliminate a liberal bias as

well as to promote a more conservative agenda). During the 1992 Presidential campaign,

Vice President Dan Quayle attempted to bring the issue of “family values” to the media

and public agenda. One of his strategies was to show how the media legitimize unwed

motherhood by depicting respected professional women, like the fictional television

character Murphy Brown, becoming pregnant outside of marriage. The 1996 Republican

candidate, Robert Dole, decried the violence in films (with Arnold Schwarzenegger

standing at his side) and congratulated producers of films that promote wholesome

values, such as Independence Day’s celebration of patriotism. In 2000, the Federal

Communications Commission (FCC) investigated complaints that the U.S. Office of

 24

National Drug Control Policy offered television networks advertising in exchange for

embedding anti-drug messages in television programming.

Furthermore, according to Rappler reporter (Macaraeg & Hapal, 2023) during the

2022 presidential election, data show that Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos Jr. and Leni

Robredo dominate election-related conversations on Facebook, Twitter, and TikTok.

Unlike in the surveys, the race appears to be tighter on social media. Robredo slightly

leads over Marcos in terms of total mentions on Facebook and Twitter, while Marcos

dominates TikTok. Rappler and Manila-based data consultancy Nerve scanned Facebook

for public posts from accounts, consisting of pages and groups, that contained terms

specific to the presidential candidates of the 2022 elections – including their names,

campaign taglines, and the name of their respective supporter groups. The same was done

on TikTok. The scan was done from February to March 2022. Graphika, a US-based

independent social analytics firm, conducted a similar scan on Twitter to capture the

Philippine election landscape on the platform. Its scope is from February 20 until March

22, 2022.

For example, the intensity of the use of the social media reflects the perceptions

and the feelings of participants. The feeling of lousy treatment became the driving force

to some OFWs in voting for Duterte. Many participants perceived that only Duterte can

usher in desired changes as shown by their multiple sharing of images containing the

battle cry of the Duterte campaign, “Change is Coming.” While there were sharing of

some articles full of facts and figures intended to influence the analytical mind, most of

the campaign materials posted and shared were brief and appealing mainly to the

emotions. Judging from the quantity and the content of materials shared, they are mainly
 25

designed to target on the affective level of voters. This is an effective strategy as

validated by the finding that majority of the participants who admitted that they were

influenced by the images posted on Facebook also believe that the social media is a

determining factor in the campaign. The perception that the social media benefited a

candidate is shared by the supporters of all candidates who believe that the social media

is a determining factor of the result of the campaign. (N. Almarez Dm & D. Malawani,

2016)

Another, Social media platforms like TikTok are increasingly being used for

democratic discourse and the exchange of political campaign techniques. TikTok's

influence extends beyond young people and is spreading to individuals of all ages

(Hidayat, 2021). After watching TikTok videos, voters' voting decisions may be

predicted based on a variety of variables, such as whether the video is educational,

entertaining, or appeals to their emotions. (Baluyut, 2023).

Also stated by (Auter & Fine, 2017). Candidates in competitive races embrace

social media to increase their chances of success in heated contests, but if Senator

Gardner does not recognize his need to engage on social media, his re-election campaign

could prove unsuccessful.

On the other hand, stated by (Kalulu, 2017,) using probit models to analyze 50

elections from 30 African countries, the study finds that corruption does not affect the re-

election chances of incumbent parties in Africa; that voters’ access to information

(media) reduces the re-election chances of incumbent parties in Africa; and that there is

no evidence that information about corruption affects the re-election chances of

 26

incumbent parties. This may mean that African voters do not understand the negative

impact of corruption on their economic wellbeing.

However, according to Wolton, Stephane (2019) this comes at a cost. The

incumbent’s reelection prospects depend on the media report, which reveals his type, not

on his policy choice. A moderate incumbent then implements his preferred policy, which

differs from the voter’s. Hence, an unbiased news provider induces a loss of control. In

contrast to an unbiased outlet, a right-wing news provider would prefer the incumbent to

be reelected; a left-wing outlet the incumbent to be replaced; neither shares the voter’s

electoral objective. This has dramatic consequences for editorials. I show that, even in a

balanced media 2 environment, editorials suffer from presentation biases and can never

be trusted by the voter. The voter, however, is not completely uninformed with biased

news providers. The left-wing outlet always publishes bad news for the incumbent (i.e.,

stories that hurt his electoral chances), while the right-wing outlet shares good news (i.e.,

stories that improve his prospects).

Theoretical framework:

One proposal that offers promising theoretical and applicational solutions is

Newman and Sheth’s voter’s choice behavior model (1985; see also Newman, 1999;

Ver8i8, 1999). According to this model the following seven domains are assumed to

guide voter behavior: (1) Issues and Policies–refers to a list of salient issues and policies,

including economics, foreign, social policies as well as leadership characteristics; (2)

Social Imagery–refers to all relevant segments of the voting population likely to be

supportive of the candidates being studied; (3) Emotional Feelings–represent the voters’

emotional attitude toward the candidates; (4) Candidate Image–refers to the candidate’s
 27

image based on personality traits; (5) Current Events–refers to issues and policies which

develop during the course of the campaign; (6) Personal Events– refers to situations in

the personal life of the candidate; and (7) Epistemic Issues–refers to those aspects of the

candidate that would provide the perceived satisfaction of voters’ curiosity, knowledge,

and exploratory needs. These cognitive domains are presented in Figure 1.

Although the model as simplified by Newman (1999), using only five domains

(Political Issues, Social Imagery, Candidate Personality, Situational Contingency and

Epistemic Value), was employed in testing the voter behavior during the 1996 US

presidential election, the present theoretical and empirical analyses use the broader

approach, including all seven domains of original research by Newman and Sheth (1985).

If the seven cognitive domains are assumed to be distinct and separate, then they can be

incorporated into the discriminant analysis as independent (predictive) variables, with

voting intention being a dependent or predicted variable. However, the question arises

whether the domains are, in fact, distinct and separate. For example, it is well

documented in psychological literature that cognitive and emotional elements should be

treated not as separate, but as interactive vectors (e.g., Cwalina & Falkowski, 2000;

Falkowski & Cwalina, 1999; Singh et al., 1995). Therefore, one can pose a question

regarding possible causal relationships among the set of variables previously treated as

distinct and independent. Replacing the traditional discriminant models with structural

ones that could specify the interrelations among different cognitive domains can provide

the answers to such questions (about structural equation analysis, see Loehlin, 1987).

Asking which element acts on another element is a problem of causal relationship

among elements previously assumed to be distinct and independent variables. This

 28

concerns, in particular, the proper placement in this causal chain of a voter’s emotional

attitudes toward candidates.

Many studies have revealed that one’s emotional attitude toward the candidates or

political parties is a very good predictor of a voter’s decision (e.g., Abelson, Kinder,

Peters & Fiske, 1982; Masterson & Biggers, 1986). For instance, Lott, Lott and Saris

(1993) found that in the 1988 US presidential campaign, a voter’s preference correlated

with his or her feelings to-ward the candidate on the level of r = 0.68 for Bush and r =

0.60 for Dukakis. Singh and his collaborators (1995), analyzing voters’ attitudes just

before the parliamentary elections in Singapore in 1988, by comparing multiple

regressions, obtained a prediction of voters’ intention on the basis of feelings toward the

party and its candidates on the level of R2 =0.36 (p < .0001).

 29

Figure 1. Model of Voter’s Choice Behavior (Newman & Sheth,

1985:179)

Research Paradigm

INPUT PROCESS OUTPUT

 Research
1. Demographic profile of An Infographics based
instrument
the respondents in Lucena of the result of the study
formulation
City: Age, Gender, about Predictors of
 Gathering of
Barangay, Educational Political Re-election in
survey data
Attainment, Income status Lucena City.
 Tabulation of
result
2. Influence of predictors  Analysis and
in regards to re-election of interpretation of
political leaders in Lucena data
City.  Presentation of
findings and result

Figure 2.. IPO model on the Predictors of Political Reelection in Lucena City.
 30

The figure above shows the input, process, and output. The inputs are the

demographic profiles of the respondents in Lucena City, which are: age, gender,

barangay, educational attainment, and income situation. And the influence of predictors

in regards to the re-election of political figures in Lucena City

The process involves research instrument formulation and the gathering of survey

data from the respondent based on their demographic profile. The assessment of the

respondents will be evaluated through tabulation and analysis. After that, the next step

will be to analyze and interpret the data. Lastly, it is time to present the findings and

results.

The output of this research is an Infographics where the citizens of Lucena will be

able to see a predicted result about the incumbent's possible reelection or not in the

upcoming election in Lucena City. They can use this Infographics as a guide if they are

still confused about whom to vote for, whether they go for a new candidate, or if voters

will stick with the incumbent politician. Also, for the Elected officials to benefit from this

study output by being more knowledgeable about the predictors/ voter’s feedback

concerning to their level of services. And to act in accordance with the outcome, in order

to increase one's chances of winning reelection in the future.

Hypothesis

H O : There is no significant difference between the respondents’ profile and their

perception towards predictors of political re-election.

31
 Chapter III

METHODOLOGY

This chapter presents the method that will be utilized by the researchers in

conducting the study. This includes the research locale, unit of

analysis/respondents/treatments, research design, procedures/ data collection, research

instrument, data analysis and statistical treatment.

Research Locale

The study will be carried out in the City of Lucena. The respondents will answer

some questions in their houses or any comfortable place that they choose. The researchers

also will gather respondents that is residing in different barangays in Lucena City. These

respondents will answer the survey. The researchers chose the place of implementation

because it has the highest number of registered voters in Quezon and it will help the

researchers to gather the needed information easily.

Unit of Analysis/Respondents/Treatments

There shall be one hundred fifty (150) respondents in the study. The respondents

will come from the ten (10) selected barangays out of thirty-three (33) barangays in

Lucena City, Quezon. The respondents will be informed that participation in the study is

entirely voluntary and that they may choose to cease their involvement at any time

without the need to provide any justification. If the respondents did choose to terminate

their participation, they will be made aware that their decision would not damage the

relationship between them and the researchers as well as any benefits that may have been

granted for completing participation was forfeited.

 32

Research Design

This study attempts to quantify quantitative data that can be transpose into

numbers, in a formal, objective, systematic process to obtain information and describe

variables and their relationships. The researchers will formulate a survey questionnaire

that will validate by the randomly chosen residents in Lucena City, Quezon.

Procedures/ Data Collection

In this study, the researchers will seek for literature, books, studies, and website

relating to assessing the predictors to political re-election.

The researchers will provide a devise survey questionnaire and present it to the

research adviser for clarification and approval. After the approval, the researchers will

conduct the study in the chosen location with the permission of research adviser, program

chair, and the respondents in order to gather the data. the researchers will assure their

respondents that all their responses will be treated with the utmost confidentiality. One of

the benefits of using surveys in research is that they allow researchers to gather a large

quantity of data relatively quickly and cheaply. Furthermore, a survey can be

administered as a structured interview or as a self-report measure, and data can be

collected in person, over the phone, or on a computer. Survey questionnaires will be

given to the respective respondents and ask them to answer honestly the questions. Also,

the researchers will tally, analyze, and interpret the data to find out the result of the study.

The researchers are determined to collect information regarding predictors of

political re-election in Lucena City.

 33

Research Instrument

In determining the predictors of political re-election in the City of Lucena, the

researchers will use a survey questionnaire that will be distributed in a face-to-face

manner. The questionnaire will be made from the combined inputs from the introduction

and review of related literature and studies. The survey questionnaire was written in

English for the respondents to easily comprehend the entire content.

The questionnaire will be divided into two (2) parts: the first part pertains to the

demographic profile of the registered voters in Lucena City, Quezon. It consists of the

following (1) Age, (2) Gender, (3) Barangay, (4) Educational Attainment, (5) Income

Status. The second section of the survey questionnaire is composed of the variables that

predicts political re-election such as (1) Leadership, (2) Human Relation, (3)

Accomplishments of Platform, and (4) Media Influence. It is considered the subject and

determining variables in examining the registered voters in the Lucena City, Quezon.

Data Analysis

The designed questionnaire is a 4-point Likert Scale. In order to determine the

Predictors of Political Re-election in Lucena City, the scale can be interpreted as follows:
Scale Range Description Interpretation

4 3.25 – 4.00 Strongly Agree Highly Predict

3 2.50 – 3.24 Agree Predict

2 1.75 – 2.49 Disagree Partially Predict

1 1.00 – 1.74 Strongly Disagree Not Predict

 34

Statistical Treatment

The researchers will be using the following formulas since it is important for

responding to statistical studies in a more formal manner.

Slovin's formula determines the number of respondents, which is then used to

compute the sample size (n) based on the population size (N) and the margin of error (e).

The formula is as follows:

𝑛 = 𝑁/ (1 + 𝑁𝑒2)

Where:

n = sample size

N = population size

e = acceptable margin of error

To select a sample population that accurately represents the total population for

the study, the researcher will use stratified random sampling.

Stratified Random Sampling=Total Sample ¿ ¿ Entire Population x Population of Subgroups ¿

The demographic profile variables of the respondents will be analyzed using the

simple percentage formula:

Where:
p =percentage
f = frequency
N = number of respondents

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