Freshwater CERES 2025 Draft Proposal RR
Freshwater CERES 2025 Draft Proposal RR
Amoreira Estuary:
A Socio-Ecological Analysis
Research proposal
Proposal report written by the Freshwater group of the Area Study Portugal part of the
Sustainable Development Minor 2024/2025, Leiden University.
Table of Contents I
Executive Summary 1
1 About us 2
3 Stakeholder Analysis 6
4 Methods 9
4.1 Environmental Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
4.2 Sociological Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
6 Planning 13
Appendix: Extras 14
.1 Resident Perception Survey Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
.2 Municipality Interview Topic List . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
.3 Local Residents Interview Topic List . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Bibliography 19
I
Area Study Portugal
Executive Summary
The Amoreira Estuary is under pressure. This seasonal, coastal brackish water ecosystem,
located at the junction between the Aljezur River and the Atlantic Ocean, is of immense
ecological importance; it connects freshwater to a saltwater system, acts as a biodiversity
haven, and protects the coastline from floods and erosion [1]. Further, its sandy banks and
tranquil waters merge into the Amoreira Beach, making the estuary suitable for kayaking and
paddleboarding, and attracting tourists. But in recent years, water scarcity in the Algarve has
threatened the future of this brackish ecosystem.
Namely, decreased precipitation, increased illegal water extraction, and upstream erosion have
disrupted the connectivity of the Amoreira estuary, segmenting the system in pieces [2]. Now,
instead of harboring transitional waters that slowly flow into the ocean, there is a sediment
barrier that blocks the river from reaching the ocean. As the increasingly sediment-loaded river
meets the sediment carried by the ocean, an insurmountable wall of sediment segregates the
estuary into a series of freshwater, coastal lagoons. The reduced flows of the Aljezur River
cannot overcome the increased sedimentation, hence fracturing a once-stable system. While
the estuary is not permanently blocked, it seems to be nearing an alternative stable state of
blockage in spite of efforts from the municipality; an attempt at dredging in 2022 has not since
been repeated, even though the estuary keeps blocking year after year. And while no broader
consequence has been researched so far, algae blooms, acidification, and dissolved oxygen loss
provide reasons for worry in a segmented system [3] [4].
With this in mind, WaterWise, together with CERES International, seeks to effectively
understand and address the social and environmental pressures in and around the estuary
to envision its future with and despite water stress. We start from the question "How do current
water stress in the Amoreira estuary ecosystem transform its ecological and social dynamics?"
to probe into the system its current environmental conditions and social interconnections.
Through an abiotic factor monitoring, we aim to build on the work from Monteiro et al [5] to
update the estuary ecosystem health and consolidate monitoring baselines; moreover, a series
of interviews with the municipality and residents of Aljezur will elucidate the intricate social
networks entwined in this ecological system. This is for two objectives: 1) providing a holistic
overview of current ecological condition and social importance; and 2) envisioning potential
pathways towards its future conservation.
1
Research Proposal
PART 1
About us
2
Area Study Portugal
PART 2
Since ancient civilisations, estuaries have played a crucial role in human development because,
along with rivers, they served as the sites for founding cities and the beginning of economic
exchange [6]. Therefore, several coastal communities around the world have developed cultural
identities around estuarine activities, highlighting the sociocultural and economic relevance
of estuaries [7]. Estuaries involve a relevant number of economic activities that span from
fisheries, aquaculture, industrial and commercial activities, to tourism and various recreational
activities such as surfing and kayaking [8]. Moreover, estuaries represent crucial hotspots for
biodiversity. They are extremely dynamic habitats and important indicators of the health of
entire ecosystems because they provide essential conditions for a variety of species. The rich
biodiversity in estuaries is driven by complex interactions of several elements, including abiotic
factors, habitat quality, and human activities [9]. Since estuaries are the endpoint of rivers and
often sites of numerous human activities, they are extremely susceptible to the accumulation
of polluting compounds. Growing coastal populations and economic activity have resulted
in a greater amount of sewage sludge, dredged material, and industrial and municipal waste
being dumped into estuaries and oceans, contributing to increasing pollution and impact on
these areas [10] [11]. As a result, estuary systems typically show little resistance to change,
considering that they are highly susceptible to social, economic, and environmental stresses
[1]. The Amoreira Estuary, located in the southern Portuguese region of the Algarve, is no
exception.
Reduced rainfall in the area, and increased water extraction further upstream in the Aljezur
River, together with other human activities, are serious threats to the ecosystem's future [2].
These factors are increasingly impacting the Aljezur River's connection to the Atlantic Ocean,
limiting the ecosystem's efficient and healthy functioning. Currently, the Aljezur River displays
extremely insufficient water flows and pressures, which are unable to overcome the growing
sedimentation, effectively creating a blockage that prevents the connection between the river and
the Ocean. In our online meeting with Dr. Astrid Blum on December 1st 2024 she mentioned
that to this day, the estuary displays two very distinct areas: a dry sediment base that completes
the beach, and an increasingly less saline, lentic coastal lagoon. The Amoreira Estuary is
now facing concrete threats such as acidification, soil erosion and algae blooms that might
permanently impact the functioning of the ecosystem [3] [4] [11].
WaterWise builds on this understanding of the current social and environmental interlinkages
embodied through the estuary to render a holistic understanding of its current state and reveal
fruitful pathways towards its future. We start by identifying water stress as the underlying
issue for the future of the system, threatening not only the connectivity of the estuary, but the
region of the Algarve altogether [1] [2]. Thus, tracing the estuary's segmentation to broader
socio-environmental problems is pivotal; increased illegal water extraction and erosion are both
productive and reflective of current water shortages in the Algarve. How, then, to imagine an
Amoreira estuary amidst water stress? Together with CERES International we aim to shed
light on this novel issue, necessitating thorough analysis of the estuary's present conditions and
future possibilities.
4
Area Study Portugal
For this purpose, we aim to interlink multidisciplinary methods to shed light on two key aspects:
1. A holistic overview of the current ecological condition and social importance of the
Amoreira Estuary.
We intend to build on the work of Monteiro et al. [5] to provide updated measurements of
water quality and the shape of the estuary in order to establish a comparative perspective of the
ecosystem health. This will be complemented by semi-structured interviews with government
officials and a survey diffused to the residents of Algarve, conveying the diversity of perspectives
and needs held by different stakeholders around this ecological system and interrogating outlooks
towards the future of the estuary; in our vision, perspectives towards the future not only reveal
present values and perspectives but also guide transformative change and serve as a valuable
source of input for effective policy. As a whole, we will provide an overarching overview that
combines social and ecological trends in and around the estuary with the aim of elucidating
future pathways for that nourish human and non-human lifeforms and allow the estuary to
thrive with and despite the water stress.
With the following goal in mind, we prompt the following research question:
How do current water stress in the Amoreira estuary ecosystem transform its
ecological and social dynamics?
• Environmental Analysis:
– What is the current water quality across multiple measurement sites in the Amoreira
Estuary?
• Social Analysis:
– How is the municipality planning to intervene in the future of the estuary system?
– What is the perception of residents on the present and future of the estuary?
5
Research Proposal
PART 3
Stakeholder Analysis
Understanding the perspectives of the multiplicity of stakeholders around the conservation of the
estuary is pivotal for devising a prognosis of its current problems and strategic long-term visions.
Below, an overview of the most influential stakeholders is provided. They are color-coded
with green standing for public authorities, blue for civic society, and turquoise for scientific
organizations and NGOs.
6
Area Study Portugal
PART 4
Methods
As the estuary is likely to have suffered geographical shifts over the course of the year, it is
important that we first assess its current shape and determine additional sampling spots. We
will focus on doing this as soon as we reach the location. There are several technical options for
the task, but two that stand out are: Polar heart rate monitor (with accurate GPS function)
and Avenza maps. We will determine the best solution in the field. Once the geolocation data
is acquired, we use GIS mapping to create the contour of the estuary, and we layer our own
findings on top of the previous map in order to determine the changes. This allows for a clear
visual representation of over-time shifts in the geography of the estuary. If we determine the
major differences, we will proceed to adding new sampling sites or removing them if necessary.
Only then can we proceed with the measurement of abiotic factors.
9
Research Proposal
Following the previous research, five indicators of water quality will be measured: pH, tem-
perature, salinity, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen (DO). The latter will unfortunately not be
replicable, as previous assessments were not possible. These measurements are commonly used
in research that focuses on water quality [12], [13]. We will use the Hach HQd portable meter in
order to get the necessary data and create a comprehensive dataset with all variables of interest.
We plan to do three to five measurements per sampling site, depending on the conditions that
we find upon arrival. The data will then be compared against the existing measurement, and
conclusions about temporal changes in water quality will be drawn. The final results will also
be mapped using ArcGIS, thus providing a simple visual representation of variations across the
estuary.
10
Area Study Portugal
PART 5
5.1 Deliverables
Through this research, we aim to have an updated dataset with complete measurements of all
the abiotic factors and distribution of species in the estuary. The results of this dataset will be
represented in an ArcGIS story map. The data will be visually represented in tables, figures and
an ArcGIS map that shows the different measurement sites. For the abiotic factors, we want to
make a map that shows spatial variations of concentrations of the different factors. Since we
will be following the methods from the group of students that went last year to Portugal, we
can make an analysis based on the differences that might be found.
Due to time constraints and lack of experience, we will not be looking at the flora and fauna
present in the estuary. For the social deliverables, we plan to make a stakeholder analysis based
on interviews and surveys taken with the different stakeholders. Based on these results we want
to make figures that clearly show people’s opinions on the future of the estuary and highlight
different reasons for which certain answers were given. Again since this has also been done in
the years before we want to compare our results with those of previous years to see if there is a
change in perception of the estuary. The results we acquire during this research can then also
be used again in the future to monitor the estuary and people’s perception of it.
11
Research Proposal
5.2 Impact
The research that we will be doing is in a very dynamic and rapidly changing ecosystem for
which it is important to closely monitor its well-being. Local people are dependent on it since
unfavourable changes to it could result in less tourism and a decrease in biodiversity. By
measuring the estuary we can locate the environmental changes that might occur. Through
interviewing different stakeholders we also create a better understanding of all views that might
regard the estuary. By continuing our research from previous years we also make it possible to
better form decision-making to see if the problem continues to grow or seems stable for now.
With our storymap we hope to be able to provide a good understanding of the estuary and its
current state and hope to be able to help scientists, the municipality and local people in the
future. At last with the social component of our research we hope to get a good understanding
of people’s perception of the estuary which could prove helpful for decision making, but also to
be able to track people’s perception throughout time.
12
Area Study Portugal
PART 6
Planning
The nature of the research project we aim to perform means that we have to elaborate a clear,
cohesive action plan. The time constraint makes it difficult to manage all the sub-tasks, but
we came up with a provisional course of action. We acknowledge that field work is rather
unpredictable and thus we keep this plan adjustable, depending on the conditions we come
across upon our arrival. While several activities can be planned well in advance, some are
entirely dependent on the situation. As a result, for instance we might have to change dates for
water sampling due to weather events. Those situations are unavoidable, but we are confident
that we will be able to work out alternative plans on the spot.
13
Research Proposal
a. Under 18
b. 18-30
c. 31-45
d. 46-60
e. 60+
a. Aljezur or nearby
b. Elsewhere in Portugal
c. Outside of Portugal
a. Often
b. Occasionally
c. Rarely
d. Never
• Q4: What do you primarily associate the Amoreira Estuary with? (Select all
that apply)
a. Very clean
b. Moderately clean
c. Somewhat polluted
d. Very polluted
14
Area Study Portugal
• Q6: What are your main concerns for the Amoreira Estuary? (Select all that
apply)
a. Pollution
b. Overcrowding due to tourism
c. Habitat destruction and biodiversity loss
d. Climate change impact
e. Lack of management by the municipality
f. No concerns
• Q7: What activities do you usually engage in at the estuary? (Select all that
apply)
a. Walking or hiking
b. Swimming
c. Kayaking
d. Surfing
e. Wildlife observation
f. Fishing
g. Relaxing (like sunbathing)
a. Definitely
b. Maybe
c. Not really
a. Very important
b. Somewhat important
c. Neutral
d. Not important
• Q10: Are you aware of the environmental challenges that the Amoreira Estuary
faces?
a. Very aware
b. Somewhat aware
c. Slightly aware
d. Not aware
• Q11: Do you think local communities and visitors are responsible for protecting
and preserving the estuary?
a. Definitely yes
b. Somewhat
15
Research Proposal
c. Not really
d. No
• Q12: Do you think the municipality is responsible for protecting and preserving
the estuary?
a. Definitely yes
b. Somewhat
c. Not really
d. No
• Q13: Is the municipality doing enough to protect and preserve the estuary?
a. Definitely yes
b. Somewhat
c. Not really
d. No
• Q14: What measures do you think are the most needed to ensure better
conditions in the estuary? (Select all that apply)
2. What are the main priorities of the municipality for the Amoreira Estuary in the short
term?
3. What are the main priorities of the municipality for the Amoreira Estuary in the long
term?
4. Are there any ongoing or planned projects for the protection and restoration of the estuary?
5. Does the municipality collaborate with regional or national institutions to manage the
estuary?
16
Area Study Portugal
Environmental Concerns
1. Does the municipality identify environmental concerns for the estuary?
4. What actions is the municipality taking to limit the impact of recreational and tourism
activities on the estuary?
5. Are there initiatives to help mitigate or adapt to challenges imposed by climate change in
the estuary?
2. Does the municipality hold public consultations or forums with local communities to
guarantee their participation and feedback in estuary management?
4. Does the municipality believe that the local population is concerned with the conservation
of the estuary?
Finance
1. What funds or resources have been allocated for the Amoreira Estuary management and
conservation?
2. Is the municipality struggling with securing the resources and expertise required to manage
the estuary?
Future
1. Does the municipality have a long-term management strategy plan for the future of the
estuary?
2. What part does the municipality think stakeholders will play in the future of the estuary?
3. How does the municipality see the Amoreira Estuary in 10-15 years?
4. Will the municipality be able to effectively balance economic activities and environmental
protection in the estuary?
6. How can the municipality help guarantee the preservation of the estuary for future
generations?
17
Research Proposal
5. Do you have specific memories or experiences tied to the estuary that are meaningful to
you?
Relevance
1. How often do you visit the estuary?
3. How important is the estuary for the local economy and community in your opinion?
6. Do you think the estuary contributes to the identity and culture of this area?
7. How would you feel if the Amoreira estuary were significantly altered and/or damaged?
Awareness
1. What do you know about the state of the estuary?
6. Do you think enough is being done to protect and preserve the estuary?
Future
1. How important is it to you that the estuary is preserved for future generations?
3. What role does the municipality have in the future of the estuary?
5. Would you support local initiatives to raise awareness and conserve the estuary? (clean-ups,
educational programes, etc.)
18
Area Study Portugal
7. What would you like the estuary to look like in 10-15 years?
8. What are your top priorities for the future of the estuary?
19
Research Proposal
Bibliography
[1] Newton, A., Icely, J., Cristina, S., Brito, A., Cardoso, A. C., Colijn, F., Dalla Riva, S.,
Gertz, F., Hansen, J. W., Holmer, M., et al., “An overview of ecological status, vulnerability
and future perspectives of European large shallow, semi-enclosed coastal systems, lagoons
and transitional waters,” Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, Vol. 140, 2014, pp. 95–122.
[2] for Environment, D.-G., “VIDEO: Portuguese farmers fight drought in region brimming
with tourists,” 9 2024.
[3] Cai, W.-J., Feely, R. A., Testa, J. M., Li, M., Evans, W., Alin, S. R., Xu, Y.-Y., Pelletier,
G., Ahmed, A., Greeley, D. J., et al., “Natural and anthropogenic drivers of acidification in
large estuaries,” Annual Review of Marine Science, Vol. 13, No. 1, 2021, pp. 23–55.
[4] Wurtsbaugh, W. A., Paerl, H. W., and Dodds, W. K., “Nutrients, eutrophication and
harmful algal blooms along the freshwater to marine continuum,” Wiley Interdisciplinary
Reviews: Water , Vol. 6, No. 5, 2019, pp. e1373.
[6] Jung, N. W., Lee, G.-h., Dellapenna, T. M., Jung, Y., Jo, T.-C., Chang, J., and Figueroa,
S. M., “Economic development drives massive global estuarine loss in the Anthropocene,”
Earth’s Future, Vol. 12, No. 4, 2024, pp. e2023EF003691.
[7] DeFur, P. L. and Rader, D. N., “Aquaculture in estuaries: Feast or famine?” Estuaries,
Vol. 18, 1995, pp. 2–9.
[8] Fidélis, T. and Carvalho, T., “Estuary planning and management: the case of Vouga
Estuary (Ria de Aveiro), Portugal,” Journal of Environmental Planning and Management,
Vol. 58, No. 7, 2015, pp. 1173–1195.
[9] Monczak, A., McKinney, B., Mueller, C., and Montie, E. W., “WhatâĂŹs all that racket!
Soundscapes, phenology, and biodiversity in estuaries,” PLoS One, Vol. 15, No. 9, 2020,
pp. e0236874.
[10] Kennish, M. J., “Pollution in estuaries and coastal marine waters,” Journal of Coastal
Research, 1994, pp. 27–49.
[11] Newton, A., Carruthers, T. J., and Icely, J., “The coastal syndromes and hotspots on the
coast,” Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, Vol. 96, 2012, pp. 39–47.
[12] Gorde, S. and Jadhav, M., “Assessment of water quality parameters: a review,” J Eng Res
Appl , Vol. 3, No. 6, 2013, pp. 2029–2035.
[13] Georgescu, P.-L., Moldovanu, S., Iticescu, C., Calmuc, M., Calmuc, V., Topa, C., and
Moraru, L., “Assessing and forecasting water quality in the Danube River by using neural
network approaches,” Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 879, 2023, pp. 162998.
20