Chapter-1

Introduction
In any country population is the most
economic factor as it is the objective for which
goods and product and it is the same time also
the keep agents in the production of them.Any
change in the size of population will necessary
leads to new economic problem and requires
social adjustments.
i-Does a large number of children diminish a
family's present well being and future prospects?
ii-Does rapid population growth adversely affect the
overall performance of the economy and its ability
to achieve and sustain general well being?
iii-Does low income, or poverty, contribute to high
fertility?
iv-Is rapid population growth a symptom, rather
than a cause, of low national output and poor
economic performance?
Where debate remains active and at times
quite contentious has to do with whether
causality runs the other way—i.e. does
reduced fertility improve the economic
prospects of families and societies? Here
there is anything but consensus, although, as I
will argue in this paper, there appears to be a
slowly growing convergence of views in favour
of an affirmative answer to this question.
The paper attempts to summarize the present
state of such research and the conclusions
that emerge from it today. My purpose is to try
to identify what policymakers can conclude
from the present state of research and then to
speculate on what might be accomplished
between now and 2050 if policymakers were
to pursue what I take to be the course of
action suggested by the research findings.
Chapter 2
What do we know macro?
Through the nineteenth and the first half of the twentieth
century, intellectuals were roughly divided between the
followers of Malthus and the followers of MarxCrudely
stated, Malthusians believed that high rates of
population growth condemned societies to more or less
permanent states of underdevelopment and that only by
breaking the iron linkage of high fertility to poverty could
real improvements in standards of living be achieved.
Marx, on the other hand, argued that high fertility
was a symptom, not a cause, of poverty and said
that only by bringing about a radical transformation in
the underlying causes of poverty would living
standards rise and birth rates begin to fall.

In the modern era, which is to say since World War

II, there have been three broad stages of economic
thinking on the relationship between rapid population
growth and economic performance.
The second stage, which can be dated from around
1986, was what economist Kelley called the
‘revisionist’ period (Kelley 1986). The emblematic work
of that period was the 1986 US National Research
Council (NRC) publication, ‘Population growth and
economic development: policy questions’.The work of
an expert committee, the 1986 NRC report, concluded
that as one of its authors, Birdsall (1988) put it, ‘rapid
population growth can slow development, but only
under specific circumstances and generally with limited
or weak effects’.
This latest chapter in the ongoing saga of
macroeconomic thinking on population–economic
interactions does not by any means represent a new
consensus. Many economists remain skeptical about
the demographic bonus, or ‘window of opportunity’,
as it is also sometimes known. But as the research
accumulates, more and more policymakers are
paying attention to it and forming their own ideas in
accordance with the findings.
Chapter 3
What do we know micro?
One might expect that economists interested in
examining the impact of fertility on household
income would pay more attention to the
micro-level than to the macro-level, but this is not
the case.Much more research has been
conducted at the macro-level than at the
micro-level, probably because of the greater
Fortunately, in just the last few years, datasets
have become available (or have been discovered
by economists) that permit sophisticated micro
studies of the fertility–poverty relationship (Merrick
2001). One of these is the Indonesian Family Life
Survey, a panel study that covered several years
and that permitted investigators to look at the effect
of changes in desired and actual fertility at one
point in time on subsequent household poverty.
Canning & Schofield (2007) found that over a
three-year period, one birth on average
reduced the likelihood of female labour force
participation by 20 per cent. This decline in
women's contribution to household income, in
turn, reduced expenditure per capita in the
household, pushing a significant number of
families into poverty and preventing the
escape of a significant number from poverty.
‘Family planning as an investment in
development: evaluation of a program's
consequences in Matlab, Bangladesh’, using
data from the famous Matlab family planning
quasi-experiments of 1974–1996 and the
associated surveillance system. Schultz and
Joshi found that in the ‘programme’, villages
and individual households fertility declined by
some 15 per cent more than in the ‘control’
villages.
They then looked at the impact of that decline ‘on a series
of long run family welfare outcomes: women's health,
earnings and household assets, use of preventive health
inputs, and finally the inter-generational effects on the
health and schooling of the woman's children. Within two
decades many of these indicators of the welfare of
women and their children improve significantly in
conjunction with the programme induced decline in fertility
and child mortality. This suggests social returns to this
reproductive health programme in rural South Asia have
many facets beyond fertility reduction, which do not
appear to dissipate over two decades.
If, on the other hand, many of the children very poor
parents are bearing are the result of unintended
pregnancies, the case for public policies to assist
them in having fewer would seem to be stronger.

Thanks to the remarkable series of surveys that

began with the World Fertility Survey in the 1970s
and continues to this day as the Demographic and
Health Surveys programme, we know a great deal
about fertility intentions in a large number of
countries around the world.
Since these estimates are the result of ex-post
surveys of the women who had the pregnancies,
many of whom may have changed their minds about
the ‘wantedness’ of the pregnancies after they
realized they were pregnant, it is quite likely that
estimates of the number of unwanted pregnancies in
fact understate reality. The ever rising numbers of
abortions and of maternal deaths that result from
abortion are additional evidence of the incidence of
unwanted pregnancy around the world.
Chapter 4
POPULATION GROWTH, HIGH FERTILITY
AND THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT
GOALS
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were adopted by
consensus following the United Nations (UN) Millennium
Summit in 2000. They represent seven specific development
goals adopted by the community of nations, as well as an
eighth goal to work in harmonious partnership. The seven
quantitative MDGs and their targets are as follows:
Goal 1: eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Target 1a. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the

proportion of people whose income is less than
one dollar a day.
Target 1b. Achieve full and productive
employment and decent work for all, including
women and young people.
Target 1c. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the
proportion of people who suffer from hunger.
Goal 2: achieve universal primary education

Target 2a. Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere,

boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full
course of primary schooling.

Goal 3: promote gender equality and empower women

Target 3a. Eliminate gender disparity in primary and

secondary education preferably by 2005 and in all
levels of education no later than 2015.
Goal 4: reduce child mortality

Target 4a. Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and

2015, the under-five mortality rate.

Goal 5: improve maternal health

Target 5a. Reduce by three-quarters, between 1990

and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio.
Target 5b. Achieve, by 2015, universal access to
reproductive health.
Figure 1.
Donor allocation of population assistance,
1996–2007. Purple, family planning
services; magenta, basic reproductive
health services; yellow, STD/HIV/AIDS;
blue, basic research. Adapted from
UNFPA/UNAIDS/NIDI. 2006 figures are
preliminary; 2007 are projections
Chapter 5
TRENDS AND PROSPECTS

That is the bad news. The good news is that

poverty has been declining and living
standards have been improving in most of
the world's regions over the past two or
three decades (figure 2).
Figure 2.
(a) Poverty levels over time world
population (per cent).
(b) Poverty levels over time
excluding China. Dark blue, $1 a
day; red, $1.25 a day; green,
$1.45 a day; purple, $2 a day;
light blue, $2.50 a day. Adapted
from World Bank Development
Indicators (2008).
In middle-income countries, the median
poverty line for the developing
world—$2 a day in 2005 prices—is
more relevant. By this standard, the
poverty rate has fallen since 1981 in
Latin America and the Middle East and
North Africa, but not enough to reduce
the total number of poor (figure 3).
Figure 3.
Percentage living on less than $1 per day. Dark
green, East Asia; dark blue, Eastern Europe
and Central Asia; purple, Latin America; red,
Middle East and North Africa; light green,
South Asia; light blue, Sub-Saharan Africa;
black line with filled square, World. Source:
‘How have the world's poorest fared since the
early 1980s?’ by Shaohua Chen and Martin
Ravallion.
Chapter
6 Causes
i)Poverty:
Poverty is to be believed as the major cause of overpopulation.
High mortality rate and lack of educational resources, leads to
high birth rates, resulting in a large population.

This effect is said to be so widespread that the United Nations

has predicted that the 48 poorest countries of the world
contribute to the largest population growth. They estimate that
the combined population of these countries is expected to be
1.7 billion in 2050 from 850 million in 2010.
ii)Child labour:

This is as painful to sound that child labour is used very

continuously and extensively in many countries of the
world. The United Nations Children’s Fund or UNICEF
has provided a rough ideas that approximately 150
million children are currently working as child labour in
different types of workstations.
As a result, children of two of the family can be seen as a
source of income by poor families. In addition,
children who start working too young lose the
educational opportunities they are provided with.
iii)Poor contraceptive use:

Though the use of contraceptives is quite

common in many developed countries, poor
planning on the part of both the partners can
lead to unexpected pregnancies. The data
showed that 76% of women aged 16 to 49 in
Great Britain used at least one type of
contraceptive, leaving a quarter open for
unexpected pregnancies.
 Chapter 7
Conclusion
In tracing the recent history of theory and
research on the connection between demography
and economics, we find a new consensus is
emerging; that reductions in fertility and declining
ratios of dependent to working age populations
provide a window of opportunity for economic
development and poverty reduction.
These recent historical experiences hold important
lessons for Africa, development's last major frontier.
By drawing on these examples, as well as Africa's
own success stories, and by recognizing the link
between demography and economic development,
African leaders and policymakers can devise
integrated economic development strategies that
give a prominent role to population policies that
include strong reproductive health and family
planning programmes.
 Chapter 8
Reference
i-Birdsall N.1988Economic approaches to population
growth and development. In Handbook of development
economics (eds Chenery H. B., Srinivasan T. N.), pp.
478–536 Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier
Publications [Google Scholar]
ii-Birdsall N., Kelley A. C., Sinding S. W.2001Why
population matters: demographic change, economic
growth, and poverty in the developing world Oxford, UK:
Oxford University Press [Google Scholar]
iii-Bloom D. E., Canning D. E.2006Booms, busts and
echoes: how the biggest demographic upheaval in history
is affecting global development. Finan. Dev. 43, 8–13
[Google Scholar]
iv-Canning D. E., Schofield H.2007The effect of fertility
on female labor supply and household poverty in
Indonesia Boston, MA: Harvard School of Public Health
[Google Scholar]
v-Coale A. J., Hoover E. M.1958Population growth and
economic development in low income countries
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press [Google
Scholar]
Chapter 9
Annexure
sAn annexure is an addition to something, often to a
document.
When used generally to simply mean something added,
annexure is interchangeable with
annex. Annexure is more commonly used in the U.K. and
India, where it often specifically
refers to an addition to an o cial document.
Example: The annexure to her dissertation includes the
most recent data.
 Questionnaire
1-What is the causes of unemployment?
a)economic recession
b)increase birth rate
c) increasing technology
d) illiteracy
2-if you are unemployed what you want to
do?
a)business
b)job
3-Unemployed increases Suicide rate?
a)Agree
b)disagree
4-Umployment effect to poor mental
health? a)Agree
b) disagree
5-Do cooperatives play an important role in
the socio-economic development of your
country?
a)Yes
b)No
6-Disguised unemployment exists primarily in the
________ sector in our country?
a)Defence
b)Agriculture
c)Manufacturing
d)None of the above
7-The meaning of disguised unemployment is?
a)Zero marginal productivity of labour
b)Zero total productivity of labour
c)Zero average productivity of labour
d)None of the above
8-Which of the following scenarios explain economic
development?
a)Improvement in the distribution system
b)Improvement in the technology
c)Improvement in the production
d)All of the above
9-Which of the following is not an indicator of an
economically developed nation?
a)High levels of literacy
b)Low death rate
c)High per capita income
d) high proportion of labour in the primary sector
10-The main characteristic of an
underdeveloped economy is that it has a?
a)State of deprivation among large proportions
of the population
b)High per capita income
c)A large proportion of the about force is in the
tertiary sector
d)None of the above