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Introduction to Robust Estimation and
Hypothesis Testing
Introduction to Robust
Estimation and Hypothesis
Testing
Fifth Edition
Rand R. Wilcox
Professor of Psychology
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, California, United States
Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier
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Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the Publisher (other than as may be
noted herein).
Notices
Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience broaden our understanding,
changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical treatment may become necessary.
Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any
information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they should be
mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.
To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury
and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of
any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.
ISBN: 978-0-12-820098-8
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Contents
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Contents
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Contents
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Contents
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Contents
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Contents
11.10.4
R Functions regpre, regpreCV, corREG.best.DO, and
PcorREG.best.DO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 759
11.10.5 Inferences About Which Predictors Are Best. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 762
11.10.6 R Functions regIVcom, regIVcommcp, logIVcom, ts2str, and
sm2strv7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 767
11.11 Marginal Longitudinal Data Analysis: Comments on Comparing Groups . . 768
11.11.1 R Functions long2g, longreg, longreg.plot, and xyplot. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770
11.12 Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 771
Chapter 12: ANCOVA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 773
12.1 Methods Based on Specific Design Points and a Linear Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . 775
12.1.1 Method S1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 776
12.1.2 Method S2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 776
12.1.3 Linear Contrasts for a One-Way or Higher Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 779
12.1.4 Dealing With Two or More Covariates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 780
12.1.5 R Functions ancJN, ancJNmp, ancJNmpcp, anclin, reg2plot,
reg2g.p2plot, and ancJN.LC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 781
12.2 Methods When There Is Curvature and a Single Covariate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 784
12.2.1 Method Y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 784
12.2.2 Method BB: Bootstrap Bagging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 787
12.2.3 Method UB . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 788
12.2.4 Method TAP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 789
12.2.5 Method G . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 790
12.2.6 A Method Based on Grids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 792
12.2.7 R Functions ancova, anc.ES.sum, anc.grid, anc.grid.bin,
anc.grid.cat, ancovaWMW, ancpb, rplot2g, runmean2g, lplot2g,
ancdifplot, ancboot, ancbbpb, qhdsm2g, ancovaUB, ancovaUB.pv,
ancdet, ancmg1, and ancGLOB . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 792
12.3 Dealing With Two or More Covariates When There Is Curvature . . . . . . . . . . . 802
12.3.1 Method MC1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 802
12.3.2 Method MC2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 803
12.3.3 Methods MC3 and MC4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 805
12.3.4 R Functions ancovamp, ancovampG, ancmppb, ancmg, ancov2COV,
ancdes, ancdet2C, ancdetM4, and ancM.COV.ES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 807
12.4 Some Global Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 815
12.4.1 Method TG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 815
12.4.2 R Functions ancsm and Qancsm. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 818
12.5 Methods for Dependent Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 819
12.5.1 Methods Based on a Linear Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 819
12.5.2 R Functions Dancts and Dancols . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820
xxii
Contents
12.5.3
Dealing With Curvature: Methods DY, DUB, and DTAP and
a Method Based on Grids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 821
12.5.4 R Functions Dancova, Dancova.ES.sum, Dancovapb, DancovaUB,
Dancdet, Dancovamp, Danc.grid, and ancDEP.MULC.ES . . . . . . . . . . 822
12.6 Exercises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 825
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 827
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 885
xxiii
Preface
There are many new and improved methods in this 5th edition. The R package written for
this book provides a crude indication of how much has been added. When the 4th edition was
published, it contained a little over 1200 R functions. With this 5th edition, there are now over
1700 R functions.
All of the chapters have been updated. For the first three chapters the changes deal with soft-
ware issues and some technical issues. Major changes begin in Chapter 4. One of the major
additions has to do with measuring effect size. Coverage of this topic has been expanded con-
siderably. For example, Chapter 5 now describes six robust measures of effect size when
comparing two independent groups. Confidence intervals for all six are returned by the R
function ES.summary.CI. Each provides a different perspective on how the groups compare.
When there is little or no difference between the groups, all six tend to give very similar re-
sults. But when the groups differ substantially there is a possibility that measures of effect
size can differ substantially. In effect, multiple measures of effect size can help provide a
deeper and more nuanced understanding of data, as illustrated in Section 5.3.5. Easy-to-use
R functions have been added for measuring effect size when dealing with multiple groups.
There have been advances even at the most basic level. Consider, for example, the goal of
computing a confidence interval for the probability of success when dealing with a binomial
distribution. There are now clearer guidelines on when it is advantageous to use the Schilling–
Doi method versus the Agresti–Coull method. When comparing two independent binomial
distributions, more recent results point to using a method derived by Kulinskaya et al. (2010).
A related issue is computing a confidence interval for the probability of success given the
value of a covariate. It is known that when this is done via a logistic regression model, a slight
departure from this model can yield inaccurate results. A method for dealing with this concern
is covered in Chapter 11.
New functions related to regression have been added that include robust methods for dealing
with multicollinearity and robust analogs of the lasso method. The coverage of classification
(machine learning) methods has been expanded. Included is a function making it a simple
matter to compare the false positive and false negative rates of a collection of techniques.
xxv
Preface
There are new results on comparing measures of association as well as measures of varia-
tion. New techniques related to ANOVA-type methods are covered in Chapters 7 and 8 and
new ANCOVA techniques are covered in Chapter 12. A variety of new plots have been added
as well.
As was the case in previous editions, this book focuses on the practical aspects of modern,
robust statistical methods. The increased accuracy and power of modern methods, versus con-
ventional approaches to ANOVA and regression, is remarkable. Through a combination of
theoretical developments, improved and more flexible statistical methods, and the power of
the computer, it is now possible to address problems with standard methods that seemed in-
surmountable only a few years ago.
Consider classic, routinely taught and used methods for comparing groups based on means. A
basic issue is how well these methods perform when dealing with heteroscedasticity and non-
normal distributions. Based on a vast body of literature published over the last 60 years, the
situation can be briefly summarized as follows. When comparing groups that have identical
distributions, classic methods work well in terms of controlling the Type I error probability.
When distributions differ, they might continue to perform well, but under general conditions
they can yield inaccurate confidence intervals and have relatively poor power. Even a small
departure from a normal distribution can destroy power and yield measures of effect size, sug-
gesting a small effect when in fact for the bulk of the population there is a large effect. The
result is that important differences between groups are often missed, and the magnitude of
the difference is poorly characterized. Put another way, groups probably differ when null hy-
potheses are rejected with standard methods, but in many situations, standard methods are the
least likely to find a difference, and they offer a poor summary of how groups differ and the
magnitude of the difference. A related concern is that the population mean and variance are
not robust, roughly meaning that an arbitrarily small change in a distribution can have an in-
ordinate impact on their values. In particular, under arbitrarily small shifts from normality,
their values can be substantially altered and potentially misleading. For example, a small shift
toward a heavy-tailed distribution, roughly meaning a distribution that tends to generate out-
liers, can inflate the variance, resulting in low power. Thus, even with arbitrarily large sample
sizes, the sample mean and variance might provide an unsatisfactory summary of the data.
When dealing with regression, the situation is even worse. That is, there are even more ways
in which analyses, based on conventional assumptions, can be misleading. The very founda-
tion of standard regression methods, namely estimation via the least squares principle, leads
to practical problems, as do violations of other standard assumptions. For example, if the error
term in the standard linear model has a normal distribution, but is heteroscedastic, the least
squares estimator can be highly inefficient, and the conventional confidence interval for the
xxvi
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