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Predicting Future Oceans
This page intentionally left blank
 Predicting Future Oceans
Sustainability of Ocean and Human Systems
Amidst Global Environmental Change

Edited by
Andrés M. Cisneros-Montemayor
Nippon Foundation Nereus Program,
Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries,
The University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, BC, Canada

William W.L. Cheung

Changing Ocean Research Unit & Nippon Foundation Nereus Program,
Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British
Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Yoshitaka Ota
Nippon Foundation Nereus Program, Vancouver, BC, Canada;
School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington,
Seattle, WA, United States
Elsevier
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The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom
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Acquisition Editor: Louisa Munro
Editorial Project Manager: Redding Morse
Production Project Manager: Vijayaraj Purushothaman
Cover Designer: Matthew Limbert
Typeset by MPS Limited, Chennai, India
Contents

List of contributors .......................................................................................... xxi

Preface ...........................................................................................................xxv
Acknowledgments ..........................................................................................xxvii

Section 1 Predicting future oceans ................................................................. 1

Chapter 1: Predicting the future ocean: pathways to global ocean sustainability ........ 3
William W.L. Cheung
1.1 The coupled human
natural marine system ....................................................... 6
1.2 Confidence and uncertainty in “predicting the future ocean”............................. 9
1.3 Adaptation to the changing ocean ..................................................................... 11
1.4 The linkages between the ocean, sustainable development, and policies ........ 12
References................................................................................................................... 13

Section 2 Changing Ocean Systems ............................................................. 17

Chapter 2: Changing ocean systems: A short synthesis ........................................... 19

Charles A. Stock, William W.L. Cheung, Jorge L. Sarmiento
and Elsie M. Sunderland
2.1 Burning fossil fuels and ocean acidification ..................................................... 21
2.2 Warming oceans, melting ice, and changing ocean circulation........................ 22
2.3 Changing ocean productivity baselines ............................................................. 23
2.4 Ocean deoxygenation ......................................................................................... 25
2.5 Changing coastlines and ocean pollution .......................................................... 27
2.6 Prospects for understanding and predicting changing oceans........................... 28
References................................................................................................................... 28

v
vi Contents

Chapter 3: Drivers of fisheries production in complex socioecological systems .......... 35

Chris McOwen, Tom Spencer and Mike Bithell
References................................................................................................................... 38

Chapter 4: Changing seasonality of the sea: past, present, and future..................... 39

Rebecca G. Asch
4.1 Past: a brief history of phenology research in marine ecosystems ................... 40
4.2 Present: phenology as a “fingerprint” of climate change impacts
on marine ecosystems ........................................................................................ 42
4.3 What may the future hold? ................................................................................ 46
References................................................................................................................... 48

Chapter 5: Extreme climatic events in the ocean .................................................... 53

Thomas L. Frölicher
5.1 What drives marine heatwaves? ........................................................................ 54
5.2 The warming oceans .......................................................................................... 55
5.3 Increase in marine heatwaves ............................................................................ 55
5.4 Future changes.................................................................................................... 56
5.5 Impacts ............................................................................................................... 58
5.6 Outlook ............................................................................................................... 58
Acknowledgment ........................................................................................................ 59
References................................................................................................................... 59

Chapter 6: Seafood methylmercury in a changing ocean.......................................... 61

Colin P. Thackray and Elsie M. Sunderland
6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 61
6.2 The steps that lead to methylmercury accumulation in fish ............................. 62
6.3 Fish methylmercury in a changing ocean.......................................................... 63
6.4 Conclusion.......................................................................................................... 67
References................................................................................................................... 67

Chapter 7: Building confidence in projections of future ocean capacity .................... 69

Tyler D. Eddy
7.1 Ocean capacity and ecosystem services ............................................................ 69
7.2 Climate change impacts on ocean capacity....................................................... 70
7.3 The model intercomparison project experience: model ensembles .................. 71
 Contents vii

7.4 Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project:

projecting future ocean capacity ........................................................................ 72
7.5 Socioeconomic drivers of future ocean capacity............................................... 74
7.6 Summary............................................................................................................. 75
References................................................................................................................... 75

Section 3 Changing Marine Ecosystems and Biodiversity ......................... 77

Chapter 8: Marine biodiversity and ecosystem services: the large gloomy

shadow of climate change .................................................................... 79
Didier Gascuel and William W.L. Cheung
8.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 79
8.2 Changing marine ecosystem and biodiversity: seven highlights ...................... 80
8.3 Global impact of climate change on marine ecosystems
and the biodiversity............................................................................................ 81
8.4 Impacts on marine ecosystem services.............................................................. 82
References................................................................................................................... 83

Chapter 9: Current and future biogeography of exploited marine

groups under climate change ................................................................ 87
Gabriel Reygondeau
9.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 87
9.2 Biotic partition of the ocean .............................................................................. 88
9.2.1 Historical background on marine biotic biogeography .............................. 88
9.2.2 Current ocean partition based on species distribution and diversity .......... 89
9.3 Distribution of exploited marine biodiversity ................................................... 91
9.3.1 Historical and current limitations in studying marine diversity patterns .... 91
9.3.2 Global patterns in marine diversity ........................................................... 92
9.4 Effect of climate change on marine species biogeography............................... 95
9.4.1 Climate-driven change in the distribution of marine species ..................... 95
9.4.2 Implication for marine ecosystem services ............................................... 97
References................................................................................................................... 99

Chapter 10: Linking individual performance to population persistence

in a changing world .........................................................................103
Joey R. Bernhardt
10.1 Scaling metabolism from cells to ecosystems............................................... 103
10.2 Temperature constrains the pace of life ........................................................ 104
viii Contents

10.3 Linking individual performance to the dynamics of populations ................. 104

10.4 Integrating evolutionary theory with metabolic scaling theory .................... 105
10.5 Outlook ........................................................................................................... 106
References................................................................................................................. 107

Chapter 11: The Sea Around Us as provider of global fisheries catch and
related marine biodiversity data to the Nereus Program
and civil society...............................................................................111
D. Pauly, M.L.D. Palomares, B. Derrick, G. Tsui, L. Hood and D. Zeller
11.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 111
11.2 Catch reconstructions ..................................................................................... 112
Acknowledgments..................................................................................................... 116
References................................................................................................................. 116

Chapter 12: Changing biomass flows in marine ecosystems: from the past
to the future ...................................................................................121
Hubert du Pontavice
12.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 121
12.2 Development of indicators to analyze biomass flows and trends since
1950 ................................................................................................................ 123
12.3 Temperature effects on biomass flows in marine ecosystems ...................... 124
12.4 A biomass flow model to project the effect of climate change
on production and biomass in the world ocean............................................. 126
12.5 Conclusion...................................................................................................... 126
References................................................................................................................. 127

Chapter 13: The role of cyclical climate oscillations in species distribution

shifts under climate change ..............................................................129
Sarah M. Roberts
References................................................................................................................. 134

Chapter 14: Jellyfishes in a changing ocean .........................................................137

Natasha Henschke
14.1 Review of current knowledge ........................................................................ 137
14.2 Modeling jellyfish populations ...................................................................... 139
14.2.1 Case study: Gulf of Mexico ................................................................ 140
14.2.2 Case study: global trends in jellyfish blooms ...................................... 141
 Contents ix

14.3 Questions, guidance, and directions for future jellyfish research................. 144
14.3.1 Increased observational efforts for polyps and medusae ...................... 144
14.3.2 Managing jellyfish populations through fishing or removal ................ 145
14.3.3 Understanding their trophic role .......................................................... 145
References................................................................................................................. 146

Chapter 15: Understanding variability in marine fisheries: importance

of environmental forcing ..................................................................149
Fernando González Taboada
15.1 Overview ........................................................................................................ 149
15.2 How do fisheries vary in time?...................................................................... 150
15.3 A simple classification ................................................................................... 152
15.4 Environmental drivers of variability in marine fisheries .............................. 156
15.5 Integration....................................................................................................... 157
Acknowledgments..................................................................................................... 159
References................................................................................................................. 159

Chapter 16: Life history of marine fishes and their implications

for the future oceans .......................................................................165
Colleen M. Petrik
16.1 Life history strategies of fishes...................................................................... 165
16.2 Dominance of large predatory fishes............................................................. 167
16.3 Expectations under climate change ............................................................... 169
16.4 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 170
References................................................................................................................. 170

Section 4 Changing Fisheries and Seafood Supply ....................................173

Chapter 17: Fisheries and seafood security under changing oceans ........................175
Elsie M. Sunderland, Hing Man Chan and William W.L. Cheung
17.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 175
17.2 Fisheries management .................................................................................... 176
17.3 Fisheries and food supply .............................................................................. 177
17.4 Fisheries, food security, and safety ............................................................... 178
17.5 Summary......................................................................................................... 179
References................................................................................................................. 179
x Contents

Chapter 18: Projecting economics of fishing and fishing effort dynamics

in the 21st century under climate change .........................................181
Vicky W.Y. Lam
18.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 181
18.1.1 Existing economic models projecting fisheries catch and
economic impact under climate change ............................................... 182
18.1.2 Incorporating effort dynamics into the model...................................... 185
18.1.3 Potential socioeconomic impacts ......................................................... 186
References................................................................................................................. 190

Chapter 19: Integrating environmental information into stock assessment

models for fisheries management .....................................................193
Kisei R. Tanaka
19.1 The role of stock assessment models in fisheries management.................... 193
19.2 Equilibrium paradigm assumptions under changing climate ........................ 195
19.3 Incorporating environmental variability into stock assessment models ....... 196
19.4 Case study of American lobster in the Gulf of Maine.................................. 198
19.5 Conclusion...................................................................................................... 201
Acknowledgments..................................................................................................... 202
References................................................................................................................. 202

Chapter 20: Climate change adaptation and spatial fisheries management ............207
Rebecca Selden and Malin Pinsky
20.1 Past, present, and future shifts in species distributions and catch
potential .......................................................................................................... 207
20.2 Impacts on fishing communities .................................................................... 209
20.3 Challenges for spatial fisheries management ................................................ 210
20.4 Tools for climate-ready management in the context of shifting
species distributions ....................................................................................... 211
References................................................................................................................. 213

Chapter 21: Adapting tourist seafood consumption practices in Pacific Islands

to climate change ............................................................................215
Colette C.C. Wabnitz
21.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 215
21.2 Case study: Palau ........................................................................................... 218
 Contents xi

21.3 Tourism and sustainable seafood ................................................................... 221

21.4 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 222
Acknowledgments..................................................................................................... 222
References................................................................................................................. 223

Chapter 22: Mariculture: perception and prospects under climate change .............227
Muhammed A. Oyinlola
22.1 Background..................................................................................................... 227
22.2 Aquaculture definitions .................................................................................. 228
22.3 Aquaculture farming systems and practice.................................................... 229
22.3.1 Extensive aquaculture system............................................................ 229
22.3.2 Intensive aquaculture system ............................................................. 230
22.3.3 Semi-intensive aquaculture system .................................................... 230
22.3.4 Open aquaculture system .................................................................. 230
22.3.5 Closed aquaculture systems............................................................... 231
22.3.6 Semiclosed aquaculture systems........................................................ 231
22.3.7 Integrated aquaculture systems .......................................................... 231
22.3.8 Capture-based aquaculture ................................................................ 231
22.3.9 Closed life cycle aquaculture or hatchery-based aquaculture............. 232
22.3.10 Production based on the aquatic environment ................................... 232
22.4 Mariculture, environmental sustainability, and food security....................... 233
22.5 Mariculture, climate change, and future seafood supply .............................. 234
22.6 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 235
References................................................................................................................. 236

Chapter 23: The big picture: future global seafood markets .................................241
Oai Li Chen
23.1 Fish is a necessity food item.......................................................................... 241
23.2 Current global seafood markets ..................................................................... 242
23.3 Future global seafood markets ....................................................................... 244
23.4 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 247
References................................................................................................................. 247

Chapter 24: Climate change, contaminants, and country food: collaborating

with communities to promote food security in the Arctic ....................249
Tiff-Annie Kenny
24.1 Seafood, food security, and public health ..................................................... 249
xii Contents

24.2 Changing Arctic communities ....................................................................... 251

24.2.1 Food systems and food security .......................................................... 252
24.3 Climate change and country foods ................................................................ 253
24.3.1 Changing Arctic marine environments and ecosystems....................... 253
24.3.2 Inuit subsistence harvest ..................................................................... 254
24.4 Contaminants and country foods ................................................................... 255
24.4.1 Human health risks of contaminants ................................................... 256
24.5 Collaborating with communities to improve food security .......................... 257
References................................................................................................................. 258

Section 5 Changing Social World of the Oceans .......................................265

Chapter 25: The changing social world of the oceans ...........................................267

Larry B. Crowder and Wilf Swartz
Reference .................................................................................................................. 269

Chapter 26: The impact of environmental change on small-scale fishing

communities: moving beyond adaptive capacity to community
response .........................................................................................271
William K. Oestreich, Timothy H. Frawley, Elizabeth J. Mansfield,
Kristen M. Green, Stephanie J. Green, Josheena Naggea,
Jennifer C. Selgrath, Shannon S. Swanson, Jose Urteaga,
Timothy D. White and Larry B. Crowder
26.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 271
26.2 Resilience and adaptive capacity: theory and limitations ............................. 272
26.3 An analytical framework for community response and mediating factors... 274
26.3.1 Climate-driven stressors ...................................................................... 275
26.3.2 Mediating factors ................................................................................ 275
26.3.3 Response framework—adapt, react, or cope ....................................... 278
26.3.4 Dampen or amplify? ........................................................................... 278
26.3.5 Example framework application ......................................................... 279
26.4 Conclusions .................................................................................................... 280
References................................................................................................................. 280

Chapter 27: The future of mangrove fishing communities .....................................283

Rachel Seary
27.1 An introduction to mangrove fishing issues.................................................. 283
 Contents xiii

27.2 How do human impacts threaten mangrove fishing?.................................... 285

27.3 Will future climate change influence mangrove fishery productivity? ........ 287
27.4 What social and political factors will influence continued mangrove
fishing by communities? ................................................................................ 289
27.5 Conclusions .................................................................................................... 290
References................................................................................................................. 290

Chapter 28: Ocean policy on the water—incorporating fishers’ perspectives

and values ......................................................................................295
Julia G. Mason
28.1 The value of values ........................................................................................ 295
28.2 Approaches to participatory research ............................................................ 297
28.2.1 Start with trust .................................................................................... 297
28.2.2 Listen.................................................................................................. 299
28.2.3 Integrate and iterate ............................................................................ 300
28.3 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 300
References................................................................................................................. 300

Chapter 29: Integration of traditional knowledge in policy for climate

adaptation, displacement and migration in the Pacific .......................305
Marjo Vierros and Yoshitaka Ota
29.1 Traditional knowledge in ocean and climate change policy......................... 305
29.2 Traditional knowledge under a changing climate ......................................... 307
29.2.1 Traditional knowledge in climate change adaptation and
mitigation ........................................................................................... 307
29.2.2 Traditional knowledge in displacement and migration ........................ 309
29.3 Traditional knowledge as cultural identity and in policy ............................. 312
References................................................................................................................. 314

Chapter 30: Coastal indigenous peoples in global ocean governance ......................317

Andre´s M. Cisneros-Montemayor and Yoshitaka Ota
30.1 Indigenous peoples within global oceans ...................................................... 317
30.2 Appropriate use of global data....................................................................... 320
30.3 Including Indigenous voices in ocean policies.............................................. 321
Acknowledgments ............................................................................................ 322
References................................................................................................................. 322
xiv Contents

Chapter 31: The relevance of human rights to socially responsible seafood ............325
Lydia C.L. Teh, Richard Caddell, Edward H. Allison, John N. Kittinger,
Katrina Nakamura and Yoshitaka Ota
31.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 325
31.2 The human rights landscape of socially responsible seafood ....................... 326
31.2.1 Principles of socially responsible seafood ........................................... 326
31.2.2 Social concerns in the seafood supply chain ....................................... 327
31.3 Challenges and opportunities in applying human rights to implement
socially responsible seafood........................................................................... 328
31.4 Conclusion...................................................................................................... 331
References................................................................................................................. 331

Chapter 32: The emergence of corporate social responsibility in the global

seafood industry: potentials and limitations ......................................335
Wilf Swartz
32.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 335
32.2 Rise of private governance in seafood industry ............................................ 336
32.3 Voluntary certification standards and corporate social responsibility .......... 337
32.4 Discussion....................................................................................................... 340
32.5 Conclusion...................................................................................................... 341
References................................................................................................................. 342

Section 6 Governance and Well-Being in Changing Oceans ....................345

Chapter 33: The opportunities of changing ocean governance for sustainability......347

Henrik Österblom
33.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 347
33.2 Ocean governance—what does it look like? ................................................. 348
33.3 Is it fair? ......................................................................................................... 350
33.4 Are there shortcuts? ....................................................................................... 351
33.5 The role of science in ocean governance ...................................................... 352
References................................................................................................................. 353

Chapter 34: Climate change vulnerability and ocean governance ...........................357

Robert Blasiak
34.1 A growing storm ............................................................................................ 357
 Contents xv

34.2 Hotspots of vulnerability in an ocean under climate change........................ 358

34.3 Resilience and vulnerability at the local level .............................................. 359
34.4 Potential mechanisms to promote sustainable ocean and coastal
management.................................................................................................... 361
Acknowledgments..................................................................................................... 362
References................................................................................................................. 362

Chapter 35: The last commons: (re)constructing an ocean future..........................365

Katherine Seto and Brooke Campbell
35.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 365
35.2 “The largest single enclosure in history”: a changing ocean regime ........... 366
35.3 Sustainable efficiency or inequitable dispossession: tracing
the legacies of neoliberal enclosure............................................................... 368
35.3.1 The rise of individual transferable quotas and privatization
of a public good.................................................................................. 369
35.3.2 Marine protected areas: the social cost of enclosing the ocean
to save it ............................................................................................. 371
35.4 Choosing a future ocean ................................................................................ 372
References................................................................................................................. 373

Chapter 36: New actors, new possibilities, new challenges—nonstate actor

participation in global fisheries governance .......................................377
Matilda Tove Petersson
36.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 377
36.2 Literature review ............................................................................................ 378
36.3 Nonstate actor participation in global fisheries governance: patterns,
conditions, and implications .......................................................................... 380
36.4 Conclusions .................................................................................................... 382
References................................................................................................................. 383

Chapter 37: Exploring the knowns and unknowns of international fishery

conflicts..........................................................................................387
Jessica Spijkers
37.1 The anatomy of international fishery conflict ............................................... 388
37.1.1 Historical instances of international fishery conflicts .......................... 388
37.1.2 Accelerating drivers of conflict........................................................... 388
37.2 Learning from the environmental security literature .................................... 389
37.3 Maritime threats and regional instability....................................................... 391
xvi Contents

Acknowledgments..................................................................................................... 392
References................................................................................................................. 392

Chapter 38: A Blue Economy: equitable, sustainable, and viable development

in the world’s oceans .......................................................................395
Andre´s M. Cisneros-Montemayor
38.1 Background..................................................................................................... 395
38.2 Definitions and discourses of a Blue Economy ............................................ 396
38.3 Sectors of a Blue Economy ........................................................................... 397
38.4 Implementing a Blue Economy ..................................................................... 400
38.5 Conclusion...................................................................................................... 402
Acknowledgments ............................................................................................ 402
References................................................................................................................. 402

Chapter 39: Can aspirations lead us to the oceans we want? ................................405

Gerald G. Singh
39.1 The future we want. . . but we do not always get what we want.................. 405
39.2 Policies of wishful thinking ........................................................................... 408
39.2.1 The naturalistic fallacy ....................................................................... 408
39.2.2 The moralistic fallacy ......................................................................... 411
39.3 Aspirations with strategic plans ..................................................................... 412
References................................................................................................................. 415

Section 7 Ocean Governance Beyond Boundaries .....................................417

Chapter 40: Ocean governance beyond boundaries: origins, trends, and

current challenges ...........................................................................419
Erik J. Molenaar
References................................................................................................................. 423

Chapter 41: Incorporating the dynamic and connected nature of the open
ocean into governance of marine biodiversity beyond national
jurisdiction .....................................................................................425
Daniel C. Dunn, Guillermo Ortuño Crespo and Patrick N. Halpin
41.1 This planet is open ocean............................................................................... 425
41.2 Ecological connectivity .................................................................................. 427
 Contents xvii

41.2.1 Oceanographic connectivity ................................................................ 427

41.2.2 Migratory connectivity........................................................................ 428
41.3 Governance of highly connected, dynamic, open ocean ecosystems ........... 429
41.3.1 Area-based management tools ............................................................ 430
41.3.2 Environmental impact assessments ..................................................... 431
41.3.3 Technology transfer and capacity building ......................................... 432
41.4 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 433
References................................................................................................................. 433

Chapter 42: Legitimacy has risks and benefits for effective international
marine management ........................................................................437
Lisa Maria Dellmuth
42.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 437
42.2 Defining legitimacy as beliefs ....................................................................... 438
42.3 The legitimacy of international marine institutions ...................................... 439
42.3.1 Research design .................................................................................. 439
42.3.2 Key findings ....................................................................................... 441
42.4 The benefits and risks of legitimacy: a research agenda for
sustainability scholars .................................................................................... 444
Acknowledgment ...................................................................................................... 445
References................................................................................................................. 445
Appendix................................................................................................................... 448
Appendix A: Completion rates ......................................................................... 448
Appendix B: Question wording presented to experts in international
marine governance institutions in the order they appear in the questionnaire ......... 449
Appendix C: Scale reliability checks ................................................................ 450

Chapter 43: Verifying and improving states’ compliance with their international
fisheries law obligations ..................................................................453
Sole`ne A. Guggisberg
43.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 453
43.2 Flag state: voluntary guidelines for performance review.............................. 455
43.3 Coastal state: discretion of states................................................................... 457
43.4 Cooperation through regional fisheries management organizations:
widespread performance reviews................................................................... 458
43.5 Port state: an integrated mechanism under development.............................. 459
43.6 Conclusion: ways forward.............................................................................. 460
References................................................................................................................. 462
xviii Contents

Chapter 44: Understanding potential impacts of subsidies disciplines

and small-scale fisheries ..................................................................465
U. Rashid Sumaila
44.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 465
44.2 Distinguishing between small-scale and large-scale fisheries ...................... 466
44.3 Share of fisheries catch, revenues, and subsidies to small-scale
fisheries........................................................................................................... 469
44.4 Implications of using a common definition or relying on national
definitions of small-scale fishing for the purpose of subsidy
disciplines ....................................................................................................... 471
44.5 Conclusion...................................................................................................... 473
References................................................................................................................. 474

Chapter 45: The trouble with tunas: international fisheries science and policy
in an uncertain future .....................................................................475
Andre Boustany
References................................................................................................................. 480

Chapter 46: The road to implementing an ecosystem-based approach

to high seas fisheries management ...................................................483
Guillermo Ortuño Crespo
46.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 483
46.1.1 Expansion of marine fisheries ............................................................. 485
46.2 The ecological impacts of fisheries in the open ocean ................................. 486
46.3 Jurisdictional frameworks underpinning high seas ecosystem-based
fisheries management..................................................................................... 487
46.4 Existing ecosystem-based fisheries management tools and gaps ................. 489
46.5 The future of an ecosystem approach to fisheries in the high seas .............. 490
References................................................................................................................. 491

Chapter 47: Ocean pollution and warming oceans: toward ocean solutions
and natural marine bioremediation ..................................................495
Juan Jose´ Alava
47.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 495
47.2 Ocean pollutants and climate change ............................................................ 498
 Contents xix

47.3 Ocean solutions and natural marine bioremediation ..................................... 501

47.3.1 Ocean solutions for chemical pollution ............................................... 501
47.3.2 Ocean solutions for plastic pollution ................................................... 502
47.3.3 Climate change ocean solutions .......................................................... 504
47.3.4 On the pursuit of natural marine bioremediation................................. 506
47.4 Discussion....................................................................................................... 510
Acknowledgments..................................................................................................... 511
References................................................................................................................. 511

Chapter 48: Beyond prediction—radical ocean futures—a science fiction

prototyping approach to imagining the future oceans.........................519
Andrew Merrie
48.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 519
48.2 Science fiction—practical, structured blending of science
with imagination, storytelling, and speculation............................................. 521
48.3 The method of science fiction prototyping ................................................... 521
48.4 Radical ocean futures—scientifically valid scenarios................................... 523
48.5 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 525
References................................................................................................................. 525

Section 8 Conclusion .....................................................................................529

Chapter 49: In conclusion: Sustainable and equitable relationships

between ocean and society ...............................................................531
Yoshitaka Ota
49.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 531
49.2 Climate change impacts ................................................................................. 532
49.3 Links to human society .................................................................................. 534
49.4 Values and relationships of oceans................................................................ 535
49.5 Predicting our future oceans .......................................................................... 537
Reference .................................................................................................................. 538

Index ............................................................................................................ 539

This page intentionally left blank
List of contributors

Juan José Alava Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, BC, Canada; Fundación Ecuatoriana para el Estudio de Mamı́feros Marinos (FEMM),
Guayaquil, Ecuador
Edward H. Allison Nippon Foundation Nereus Program, School of Marine and Environmental
Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; CGIAR Research Program on FISH,
WorldFish, Bayan Lepas, Malaysia
Rebecca G. Asch Department of Biology, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, United States
Joey R. Bernhardt Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, BC, Canada
Mike Bithell Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Robert Blasiak Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Andre Boustany Principal Investigator, Fisheries, Monterey Bay Aquarium, CA, United Sates;
Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, NC, United States
Richard Caddell School of Law and Politics, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom
Brooke Campbell Australia National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (ANCORS),
University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
Hing Man Chan Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
Oai Li Chen Nippon Foundation Nereus Program, University of British Columbia, Vancouver,
BC, Canada; Changing Ocean Research Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC,
Canada
William W.L. Cheung Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, BC, Canada; Changing Ocean Research Unit, The University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, BC, Canada
Andrés M. Cisneros-Montemayor Nippon Foundation Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans
and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Guillermo Ortuño Crespo Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Beaufort, NC,
United States
Larry B. Crowder Edward F. Ricketts Provostial Professor of Marine Ecology and Conservation
at Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, CA, United states
Lisa Maria Dellmuth Department of Economic History and International Relations, Stockholm
University, Stockholm, Sweden
B. Derrick Sea Around Us, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, BC, Canada

xxi
xxii List of contributors

Hubert du Pontavice Ecology and Ecosystems Health, Agrocampus Ouest, Rennes, France and
Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British
Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Daniel C. Dunn Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Beaufort, NC, United
States; Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Earth and Environmental
Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Tyler D. Eddy Institute for Marine & Coastal Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia,
SC, United States; Fisheries & Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP)
Timothy H. Frawley Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, United
States
Thomas L. Frölicher Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern,
Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern,
Switzerland
Didier Gascuel Agrocampus Ouest, Ecology and Ecosystem Health Research Unit, Rennes, France
Kristen M. Green School of Earth, Energy, and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University,
Stanford, CA, United States
Stephanie J. Green Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, United
States; Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, United States;
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
Solène A. Guggisberg Netherlands Institute for the Law of the Sea (NILOS), Utrecht University,
Utrecht, The Netherlands; Nippon Foundation Nereus Program, University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, BC, Canada
Patrick N. Halpin Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Beaufort, NC, United
States
Natasha Henschke Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British
Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
L. Hood Sea Around Us—Indian Ocean, School of Biological Sciences, University of Western
Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia
Tiff-Annie Kenny Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
John N. Kittinger Center for Oceans, Conservation International, Honolulu, HI, United States;
Center for Biodiversity Outcomes, Life Sciences Center, Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of
Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; Conservation International,
Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science, Arlington, VA, United States
Vicky W.Y. Lam Nippon Foundation Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unit,
Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Elizabeth J. Mansfield Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, United
States
Julia G. Mason Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, United States
Chris McOwen UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC),
Cambridge, United Kingdom
Andrew Merrie Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Erik J. Molenaar Netherlands Institute for the Law of the Sea, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The
Netherlands; UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
 List of contributors xxiii

Josheena Naggea School of Earth, Energy, and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University,
Stanford, CA, United States
Katrina Nakamura The Sustainability Incubator, Honolulu, HI, United States
William K. Oestreich Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, United
States
Henrik Österblom Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Yoshitaka Ota Nippon Foundation Nereus Program, School of Marine and Environmental Affairs,
University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Muhammed A. Oyinlola Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries,
The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
M.L.D. Palomares Sea Around Us, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British
Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
D. Pauly Sea Around Us, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, BC, Canada
Matilda Tove Petersson Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Colleen M. Petrik Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University,
Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station,
TX, United States
Malin Pinsky Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick,
NJ, United States
U. Rashid Sumaila Fisheries Economics Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries,
The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; UBC School of Public Policy and
Global Affairs, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Gabriel Reygondeau Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries,
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Sarah M. Roberts Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
Jorge L. Sarmiento Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ,
United States
Rachel Seary Cambridge Coastal Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of
Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre,
Cambridge, United Kingdom
Rebecca Selden Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick,
NJ, United States
Jennifer C. Selgrath Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, United
States
Katherine Seto Australia National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (ANCORS),
University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
Gerald G. Singh Nippon Foundation Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries,
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Tom Spencer Cambridge Coastal Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of
Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Jessica Spijkers Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; ARC
for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
xxiv List of contributors

Charles A. Stock NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Elsie M. Sunderland Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public
Health, Boston, MA, United States; Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied
Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
Shannon S. Swanson School of Earth, Energy, and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University,
Stanford, CA, United States
Wilf Swartz Nippon Foundation Nereus Program, Institute for Oceans and Fisheries, University of
British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Fernando González Taboada Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University,
Princeton, NJ, United States
Kisei R. Tanaka Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program,
Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Lydia C.L. Teh Nippon Foundation Nereus Program, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Institute for the
Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Colin P. Thackray Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences,
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
G. Tsui Sea Around Us, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, BC, Canada
Jose Urteaga School of Earth, Energy, and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford,
CA, United States
Marjo Vierros Nippon Foundation Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, AERL,
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Colette C.C. Wabnitz Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, BC, Canada
Timothy D. White Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, United States
D. Zeller Sea Around Us—Indian Ocean, School of Biological Sciences, University of Western
Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia
 Another Random Document on
Scribd Without Any Related Topics
and reasonable, being nothing more than the salutation with which a
man enters the house of his friend, or his more ceremonious act of
deference in entering that of a stranger or a superior. In times and
seasons where courtesy has not given way to hurry, or a selfish
dread of unnecessary exertion, the opening form is maintained with
a certain amplitude, and the substance of the letter is not reached in
the first lines, which gently induce the reader to proceed. Afterwards
these forms are felt to involve an inconvenient sacrifice of time, and
are ruthlessly docked.
In justice to modern poverty in forms it is fair to take into
consideration the simple truth, so easily overlooked, that we have to
write thirty letters where our ancestors wrote one; but the principle
of sacrifice in courtesy always remains essentially the same; and if of
our more precious and more occupied time we consecrate a smaller
portion to forms, it is still essential that there should be no
appearance of a desire to escape from the kind of obligation which
we acknowledge.
The most essentially modern element of courtesy in letter-writing is
the promptitude of our replies. This promptitude was not only
unknown to our remote ancestors, but even to our immediate
predecessors. They would postpone answering a letter for days or
weeks, in the pure spirit of procrastination, when they already
possessed all the materials necessary for the answer. Such a habit
would try our patience very severely, but our fathers seem to have
considered it a part of their dignity to move slowly in
correspondence. This temper even yet survives in official
correspondence between sovereigns, who still notify to each other
their domestic events long after the publication of them in the
newspapers.
A prompt answer equally serves the purpose of the sender and the
receiver. It is a great economy of time to answer promptly, because
the receiver of the letter is so much gratified by the promptitude
itself that he readily pardons brevity in consideration of it. An
extremely short but prompt letter, that would look curt without its
promptitude, is more polite than a much longer one written a few
days later.
Prompt correspondents save all the time that others waste in
excuses. I remember an author and editor whose system imposed
upon him the tax of perpetual apologizing. He always postponed
writing until the delay had put his correspondent out of temper, so
that when at last he did write, which somehow happened ultimately,
the first page was entirely occupied with apologies for his delay, as
he felt that the necessity had arisen for soothing the ruffled feelings
of his friend. It never occurred to him that the same amount of pen
work which these apologies cost him would, if given earlier, have
sufficed for a complete answer. A letter-writer of this sort must
naturally be a bad man of business, and this gentleman was so,
though he had excellent qualities of another order.
I remember receiving a most extraordinary answer from a
correspondent of this stamp. I wrote to him about a matter which
was causing me some anxiety, and did not receive an answer for
several weeks. At last the reply came, with the strange excuse that
as he knew I had guests in my house he had delayed writing from a
belief that I should not be able to attend to anything until after their
departure. If such were always the effect of entertaining friends,
what incalculable perturbation would be caused by hospitality in all
private and public affairs!
The reader may, perhaps, have met with a collection of letters called
the “Plumpton Correspondence,” which was published by the
Camden Society in 1839. I have always been interested in this for
family reasons, and also because the manuscript volume was found
in the neighborhood where I lived in youth;[27] but it does not
require any blood connection with the now extinct house of
Plumpton of Plumpton to take an interest in a collection of letters
which gives so clear an insight into the epistolary customs of
England in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. The first peculiarity
that strikes the modern reader is the extreme care of almost all the
writers, even when near relations, to avoid a curt and dry style,
destitute of the ambages which were in those days esteemed an
essential part of politeness. The only exception is a plain,
straightforward gentleman, William Gascoyne, who heads his letters,
“To my Uncle Plumpton be these delivered,” or “To my Uncle
Plumpton this letter be delivered in hast.” He begins, “Uncle
Plumpton, I recommend me unto you,” and finishes, “Your nephew,”
simply, or still more laconically, “Your.” Such plainness is strikingly
rare. The rule was, to be deliberately perfect in all epistolary
observances, however near the relationship. Not that the forms used
were hard forms, entirely fixed by usage and devoid of personal
feeling and individuality. They appear to have been more flexible and
living than our own, as they were more frequently varied according
to the taste and sentiment of the writers. Sometimes, of course,
they were perfunctory, but often they have an original and very
graceful turn. One letter, which I will quote at length, contains
curious evidence of the courtesy and discourtesy of those days. The
forms used in the letter itself are perfect, but the writer complains
that other letters have not been answered.
In the reign of Henry VII. Sir Robert Plumpton had a daughter,
Dorothy, who was in the household of Lady Darcy (probably as a
sort of maid of honor to her ladyship), but was not quite pleased
with her position, and wanted to go home to Plumpton. She had
written to her father several times, but had received no answer, so
she now writes again to him in these terms. The date of the letter is
not fully given, as the year is wanting; but her parents were married
in 1477, and her father died in 1523, at the age of seventy, after a
life of strange vicissitudes. The reader will observe two leading
characteristics in this letter,—that it is as courteous as if the writer
were not related to the receiver, and as affectionate as if no forms
had been observed. As was the custom in those days, the young
lady gives her parents their titles of worldly honor, but she always
adds to them the most affectionate filial expressions:
To the right worshipfull and my most entyerly beloved, good, kind
father, Sir Robart Plompton, knyght, lying at Plompton in
 Yorkshire, be thes delivered in hast.
Ryght worshipfull father, in the most humble manner that I can I
recommend me to you, and to my lady my mother, and to all my
brethren and sistren, whom I besech almyghtie God to mayntayne
and preserve in prosperus health and encrese of worship, entyerly
requiering you of your daly blessing; letting you wyt that I send to
you mesuage, be Wryghame of Knarsbrugh, of my mynd, and how
that he should desire you in my name to send for me to come home
to you, and as yet I had no answere agane, the which desire my
lady hath gotten knowledg. Wherefore, she is to me more better
lady than ever she was before, insomuch that she hath promysed
me hir good ladyship as long as ever she shall lyve; and if she or ye
can fynd athing meyter for me in this parties or any other, she will
helpe to promoote me to the uttermost of her puyssaunce.
Wherefore, I humbly besech you to be so good and kind father unto
me as to let me know your pleasure, how that ye will have me
ordred, as shortly as it shall like you. And wryt to my lady, thanking
hir good ladyship of hir so loving and tender kyndnesse shewed unto
me, beseching hir ladyship of good contynewance thereof. And
therefore I besech you to send a servant of yours to my lady and to
me, and show now by your fatherly kyndnesse that I am your child;
for I have sent you dyverse messuages and wryttings, and I had
never answere againe. Wherefore yt is thought in this parties, by
those persones that list better to say ill than good, that ye have litle
favor unto me; the which error ye may now quench yf yt will like you
to be so good and kynd father unto me. Also I besech you to send
me a fine hatt and some good cloth to make me some kevercheffes.
And thus I besech Jesu to have you in his blessed keeping to his
pleasure, and your harts desire and comforth. Wryten at the Hirste,
the xviii day of Maye.
By your loving daughter,
Dorythe Plompton.
It may be worth while, for the sake of contrast, and that we may the
better perceive the lost fragrance of the antique courtesy, to put the
substance of this letter into the style of the present day. A modern
young lady would probably write as follows:—
Hirst, May 18.
Dear Papa,—Lady Darcy has found out that I want to leave her, but
she has kindly promised to do what she can to find something else
for me. I wish you would say what you think, and it would be as
well, perhaps, if you would be so good as to drop a line to her
ladyship to thank her. I have written to you several times, but got no
answer, so people here say that you don’t care very much for me.
Would you please send me a handsome bonnet and some
handkerchiefs? Best love to mamma and all at home.
Your affectionate daughter,
Dorothy Plumpton.
This, I think, is not an unfair specimen of a modern letter.[28] The
expressions of worship, of humble respect, have disappeared, and so
far it may be thought that there is improvement, yet that respect
was not incompatible with tender feeling; on the contrary, it was
closely associated with it, and expressions of sentiment have lost
strength and vitality along with expressions of respect. Tenderness
may be sometimes shown in modern letters, but it is rare; and when
it occurs it is generally accompanied by a degree of familiarity which
our ancestors would have considered in bad taste. Dorothy
Plumpton’s own letter is far richer in the expression of tender feeling
than any modern letter of the courteous and ceremonious kind, or
than any of those pale and commonplace communications from
which deep respect and strong affection are almost equally
excluded. Please observe, moreover, that the young lady had reason
to be dissatisfied with her father for his neglect, which does not in
the least diminish the filial courtesy of her style, but she chides him
in the sweetest fashion,—“Show now by your fatherly kindness that I
am your child.” Could anything be prettier than that, though the
reproach contained in it is really one of some severity?
Dorothy’s father, Sir Robert, puts the following superscription on a
letter to his wife, “To my entyrely and right hartily beloved wife,
Dame Agnes Plumpton, be this Letter delivered.” He begins his letter
thus, “My deare hart, in my most hartily wyse, I recommend mee
unto you;” and he ends tenderly, “By your owne lover, Robert
Plumpton, Kt.” She, on the contrary, though a faithful and brave
wife, doing her best for her husband in a time of great trial, and
enjoying his full confidence, begins her letters, “Right worshipful Sir,”
and ends simply, “By your wife, Dame Agnes Plumpton.” She is so
much absorbed by business that her expressions of feeling are rare
and brief. “Sir, I am in good health, and all your children prays for
your daly blessing. And all your servants is in good health and prays
diligently for your good speed in your matters.”
The generally courteous tone of the letters of those days may be
judged of by the following example. The reader will observe how
small a space is occupied with the substance of the letter in
comparison with the expressions of pure courtesy, and how simply
and handsomely regret for the trespass is expressed:—
To his worshipful Cosin, Sir Robart Plompton, Kt.
Right reverend and worshipful Cosin, I commend me unto you as
hertyly as I can, evermore desiring to heare of your welfare, the
which I besech Jesu to continew to his pleasure, and your herts
desire. Cosin, please you witt that I am enformed, that a poor man
somtyme belonging to mee, called Umfrey Bell, hath trespased to a
servant of youres, which I am sory for. Wherefore, Cosin, I desire
and hartily pray you to take upp the matter into your own hands for
my sake, and rewle him as it please you; and therein you wil do, as I
may do that may be plesur to you, and my contry, the which I
shalbe redy too, by the grace of God, who preserve you.
By your own kynsman,
Robart Warcopp, of Warcoppe.
The reader has no doubt by this time enough of these old letters,
which are not likely to possess much charm for him unless, like the
present writer, he is rather of an antiquarian turn.[29]
The quotations are enough to show some of the forms used in
correspondence by our forefathers, forms that were right in their
own day, when the state of society was more ceremonious and
deferential, but no one would propose to revive them. We may,
however, still value and cultivate the beautifully courteous spirit that
our ancestors possessed and express it in our own modern ways.
I have already observed that the essentially modern form of
courtesy is the rapidity of our replies. This, at least, is a virtue that
we can resolutely cultivate and maintain. In some countries it is
pushed so far that telegrams are very frequently sent when there is
no need to employ the telegraph. The Arabs of Algeria are extremely
fond of telegraphing for its own sake: the notion of its rapidity
pleases and amuses them; they like to wield a power so wonderful.
It is said that the Americans constantly employ the telegraph on very
trivial occasions, and the habit is increasing in England and France.
The secret desire of the present age is to find a plausible excuse for
excessive brevity in correspondence, and this is supplied by the
comparative costliness of telegraphing. It is a comfort that it allows
you to send a single word. I have heard of a letter from a son to a
father consisting of the Latin word Ibo, and of a still briefer one from
the father to the son confined entirely to the imperative I. These
miracles of brevity are only possible in letters between the most
intimate friends or relations, but in telegraphy they are common.
It is very difficult for courtesy to survive this modern passion for
brevity, and we see it more and more openly cast aside. All the long
phrases of politeness have been abandoned in English
correspondence for a generation, except in formal letters to official
or very dignified personages; and the little that remains is reduced
to a mere shred of courteous or affectionate expression. We have
not, it is true, the detestable habit of abridging words, as our
ancestors often did, but we cut our phrases short, and sometimes
even words of courtesy are abridged in an unbecoming manner. Men
will write Dr. Sir for Dear Sir. If I am dear enough to these
correspondents for their sentiments of affection to be worth uttering
at all, why should they be so chary of expressing them that they
omit two letters from the very word which is intended to affect my
feelings?
“If I be dear, if I be dear,”
as the poet says, why should my correspondent begrudge me the
four letters of so brief an adjective?
The long French and Italian forms of ceremony at the close of letters
are felt to be burdensome in the present day, and are gradually
giving place to briefer ones; but it is the very length of them, and
the time and trouble they cost to write, that make them so
courteous, and no brief form can ever be an effective substitute in
that respect.
I was once placed in the rather embarrassing position of having
suddenly to send telegrams in my own name, containing a request,
to two high foreign authorities in a corps where punctilious
ceremony is very strictly observed. My solution of the difficulty was
to write two full ceremonious letters, with all the formal expressions
unabridged, and then have these letters telegraphed in extenso. This
was the only possible solution, as an ordinary telegram would have
been entirely out of the question. It being rather expensive to
telegraph a very formal letter, the cost added to the appearance of
deference, so I had the curious but very real advantage on my side
that I made a telegram seem even more deferential than a letter.
The convenience of the letter-writer is consulted in inverse ratio to
the appearances of courtesy. In the matter of sealing, for example,
that seems so slight and indifferent a concern, a question of
ceremony and courtesy is involved. The old-fashioned custom of a
large seal with the sender’s arms or cipher added to the importance
of the contents both by strictly guarding the privacy of the
communication and by the dignified assertion of the writer’s rank.
Besides this, the time that it costs to take a proper impression of a
seal shows the absence of hurry and the disposition to sacrifice
which are a part of all noble courtesy; whilst the act of rapidly licking
the gum on the inside of an envelope and then giving it a thump
with your fist to make it stick is neither dignified nor elegant. There
were certain beautiful associations with the act of sealing. There was
the taper that had to be lighted, and that had its own little
candlestick of chased or gilded silver, or delicately painted porcelain;
there was the polished and graven stone of the seal, itself more or
less precious, and enhanced in value by an art of high antiquity and
noble associations, and this graven signet-stone was set in massive
gold. The act of sealing was deliberate, to secure a fair impression,
and as the wax caught flame and melted it disengaged a delicate
perfume. These little things may be laughed at by a generation of
practical men of business who know the value of every second, but
they had their importance, and have it still, amongst those who
possess any delicacy of perception.[30] The reader will remember the
sealing of Nelson’s letter to the Crown Prince of Denmark during the
battle of Copenhagen. “A wafer was given him,” says Southey, “but
he ordered a candle to be brought from the cockpit, and sealed the
letter with wax, affixing a larger seal than he ordinarily used. ‘This,’
said he, ‘is no time to appear hurried and informal.’” The story is
usually told as a striking example of Nelson’s coolness in a time of
intense excitement, but it might be told with equal effect as a proof
of his knowledge of mankind and of the trifles which have a
powerful effect on human intercourse. The preference of wax to a
wafer, and especially the deliberate choice of a larger seal as more
ceremonious and important, are clear evidence of diplomatic skill. No
doubt, too, the impression of Nelson’s arms was very careful and
clear.
In writing to French Ministers of State it is a traditional custom to
employ a certain paper called “papier ministre,” which is very much
larger than that sent to ordinary mortals. Paper is by no means a
matter of indifference. It is the material costume under which we
present ourselves to persons removed from us by distance; and as a
man pays a call in handsome clothes as a sign of respect to others,
and also of self-respect, so he sends a piece of handsome paper to
be the bearer of his salutation. Besides, a letter is in itself a gift,
though a small one, and however trifling a gift may be it must never
be shabby. The English understand this art of choosing good-looking
letter-paper, and are remarkable for using it of a thickness rare in
other nations. French love of elegance has led to charming
inventions of tint and texture, particularly in delicate gray tints, and
these papers are now often decorated with embossed initials of
heraldic devices on a large scale, but that is carrying prettiness too
far. The common American habit of writing letters on ruled paper is
not to be recommended, as the ruling reminds us of copy-books and
account-books, and has a mechanical appearance that greatly
detracts from what ought to be the purely personal air of an
autograph.
Modern love of despatch has led to the invention of the post-card,
which, from our present point of view, that of courtesy, deserves
unhesitating condemnation. To use a post-card is as much as to say
to your correspondent, “In order to save for myself a very little
money and a very little time, I will expose the subject of our
correspondence to the eyes of any clerk, postman, or servant, who
feels the slightest curiosity about it; and I take this small piece of
card, of which I am allowed to use one side only, in order to relieve
myself from the obligation, and spare myself the trouble, of writing a
letter.” To make the convenience absolutely perfect, it is customary
in England to omit the opening and concluding salutations on post-
cards, so that they are the ne plus ultra, I will not say of positive
rudeness, but of that negative rudeness which is not exactly the
opposite of courtesy, but its absence. Here again, however, comes
the modern principle; and promptitude and frequency of
communication may be accepted as a compensation for the sacrifice
of formality. It may be argued, and with reason, that when a man of
our own day sends a post-card his ancestors would have been still
more laconic, for they would have sent nothing at all, and that there
are a thousand circumstances in which a post-card may be written
when it is not possible to write a letter. A husband on his travels has
a supply of such cards in a pocket-book. With these, and his pencil,
he writes a line once or twice a day in train or steamboat, or at table
between two dishes, or on the windy platform of a railway station, or
in the street when he sees a letter-box. He sends fifty such
communications where his father would have written three letters,
and his grandfather one slowly composed and slowly travelling
epistle.
Many modern correspondents appreciate the convenience of the
post-card, but their conscience, as that of well-bred people, cannot
get over the fault of its publicity. For these the stationers have
devised several different substitutes. There is the French plan of
what is called “Un Mot à la Poste,” a piece of paper with a single
fold, gummed round the other three edges, and perforated like
postage-stamps for the facility of the opener.[31] There is the
miniature sheet of paper that you have not to fold, and there is the
card that you enclose in an envelope, and that prepares the reader
for a very brief communication. Here, again, is a very curious
illustration of the sacrificial nature of courtesy. A card is sent; why a
card? Why not a piece of paper of the same size which would hold
as many words? The answer is that a card is handsomer and more
costly, and from its stiffness a little easier to take out of the
envelope, and pleasanter to hold whilst reading, so that a small
sacrifice is made to the pleasure and convenience of the receiver,
which is the essence of courtesy in letter-writing. All this brief
correspondence is the offspring of the electric telegraph. Our
forefathers were not used to it, and would have regarded it as an
offence. Even at the present date (1884) it is not quite safe to write
in our brief modern way to persons who came to maturity before the
electric telegraph was in use.
There is a wide distinction between brevity and hurry; in fact,
brevity, if of the intelligent kind, is the best preservative against
hurry. Some men write short letters, but are very careful to observe
all the forms; and they have the great advantage that the apparent
importance of the formal expressions is enhanced by the shortness
of the letter itself. This is the case in Robert Warcopp’s letter to Sir
Robert Plumpton.
When hurry really exists, and it is impossible to avoid the
appearance of it, as when a letter cannot be brief, yet must be
written at utmost speed, the proper course is to apologize for hurry
at the beginning and not at the end of the letter. The reader is then
propitiated at once, and excuses the slovenly penmanship and style.
It is remarkable that legibility of handwriting should never have been
considered as among the essentials of courtesy in correspondence.
It is obviously for the convenience of the reader that a letter should
be easily read; but here another consideration intervenes. To write
very legibly is the accomplishment of clerks and writing-masters,
who are usually poor men, and, as such, do not hold a high social
position. Aristocratic pride has always had it for a principle to
disdain, for itself, the accomplishments of professional men; and
therefore a careless scrawl is more aristocratic than a clean
handwriting, if the scrawl is of a fashionable kind. Perhaps the
historic origin of this feeling may be the scorn of the ignorant
mediæval baron for writing of all kinds as beneath the attention of a
warrior. In a cultured age there may be a reason of a higher order. It
may be supposed that attention to mechanical excellence is
incompatible with the action of the intellect; and people are
curiously ready to imagine incompatibilities where they do not really
exist. As a matter of fact, some men of eminent intellectual gifts
write with as exquisite a clearness in the formation of their letters as
in the elucidation of their ideas. It is easily forgotten, too, that the
same person may use different kinds of handwriting, according to
circumstances, like the gentleman whose best hand some people
could read, whose middling hand the writer himself could read, and
whose worst neither he nor any other human being could decipher.
Legouvé, in his exquisite way, tells a charming story of how he
astonished a little girl by excelling her in calligraphy. His scribble is
all but illegible, and she was laughing at it one day, when he boldly
challenged her to a trial. Both sat down and formed their letters with
great patience, as in a writing class, and it turned out, to the girl’s
amazement, that the scribbling Academician had by far the more
copperplate-like hand of the two. He then explained that his bad
writing was simply the result of speed. Frenchmen provokingly
reserve their very worst and most illegible writing for the signature.
You are able to read the letter but not the signature, and if there is
not some other means of ascertaining the writer’s name you are
utterly at fault.
The old habit of crossing letters, now happily abandoned, was a
direct breach of real, though not of what in former days were
conventional, good manners. To cross a letter is as much as to say,
“In order to spare myself the cost of another sheet of paper or an
extra stamp, I am quite willing to inflict upon you, my reader, the
trouble of disengaging one set of lines from another.” Very
economical people in the past generation saved an occasional penny
in another way at the cost of the reader’s eyes. They diluted their
ink with water, till the recipient of the letter cried, “Prithee, why so
pale?”
The modern type-writing machine has the advantage of making all
words equally legible; but the receiver of the printed letter is likely to
feel on opening it a slight yet perceptible shock of the kind always
caused by a want of consideration. The letter so printed is
undoubtedly easier to read than all but the very clearest manuscript,
and so far it may be considered a politeness to use the instrument;
but unluckily it is impersonal, so that the performer on the
instrument seems far removed from the receiver of the letter and
not in that direct communication with him which would be apparent
in an autograph. The effect on the mind is almost like that of a
printed circular, or at least of a letter which has been dictated to a
short-hand writer.
The dictation of letters is allowable in business, because men of
business have to use the utmost attainable despatch, and (like the
use of the lead pencil) it is permitted to invalids, but with these
exceptions it is sure to produce a feeling of distance almost
resembling discourtesy. In the first place, a dictated letter is not
strictly private, its contents being already known to the amanuensis;
and besides this it is felt that the reason for dictating letters is the
composer’s convenience, which he ought not to consult so obviously.
If he dictates to a short-hand writer he is evidently chary of his
valuable time, whereas courtesy always at least seems willing to
sacrifice time to others. These remarks, I repeat, have no reference
to business correspondence, which has its own code of good
manners.
The most irritating letters to receive are those which, under a great
show of courtesy, with many phrases and many kind inquiries about
your health and that of your household, and even with some news
adapted to your taste, contain some short sentence which betrays
the fact that the whole letter was written with a manifestly selfish
purpose. The proper answer to such letters is a brief business
answer to the one essential sentence that revealed the writer’s
object, not taking any notice whatever of the froth of courteous
verbiage.
Is it a part of necessary good breeding to answer letters at all? Are
we really, in the nature of things, under the obligation to take a
piece of paper and write phrases and sentences thereupon because
it has pleased somebody at a distance to spend his time in that
manner?
This requires consideration; there can be no general rule. It seems
to me that people commit the error of transferring the subject from
the region of oral conversation to the region of written intercourse.
If a man asked me the way in the street it would be rudeness on my
part not to answer him, because the answer is easily given and costs
no appreciable time, but in written correspondence the case is
essentially different. I am burdened with work; every hour, every
minute of my day is apportioned to some definite duty or necessary
rest, and three strangers make use of the post to ask me questions.
To answer them I must make references; however brief the letters
may be they will take time,—altogether the three will consume an
hour. Have these correspondents any right to expect me to work an
hour for them? Would a cabman drive them about the streets of
London during an hour for nothing? Would a waterman pull them an
hour on the Thames for nothing? Would a shoe-black brush their
boots and trousers an hour for nothing? And why am I to serve
these men gratuitously and be called an ill-bred, discourteous person
if I tacitly decline to be their servant? We owe sacrifices—occasional
sacrifices—of this kind to friends and relations, and we can afford
them to a few, but we are under no obligation to answer everybody.
Those whom we do answer may be thankful for a word on a post-
card in Gladstone’s brief but sufficient fashion. I am very much of
the opinion of Rudolphe in Ponsard’s “L’Honneur et l’Argent.” A friend
asks him what he does about letters:—
Rudolphe. Je les mets
Soigneusement en poche et ne réponds jamais.
Premier Ami. Oh! vous raillez.
Rudolphe. Non pas. Je ne puis pas admettre
Qu’un importun m’oblige à répondre à sa lettre,
Et, parcequ’il lui plaît de noircir du papier
Me condamne moi-même à ce fâcheux métier.
 ESSAY XXIII.
LETTERS OF FRIENDSHIP.

I F the art of writing had been unknown till now, and if the
invention of it were suddenly to burst upon the world as did that
of the telephone, one of the things most generally said in praise of it
would be this. It would be said, “What a gain to friendship, now that
friends can communicate in spite of separation by the very widest
distances!”
Yet we have possessed this means of communication, the fullest and
best of all, from remote antiquity, and we scarcely make any use of
it—certainly not any use at all responding to its capabilities, and as
time goes on, instead of developing those capabilities by practice in
the art of friendly correspondence, we allow them to diminish by
disuse.
The lowering of cost for the transport of letters, instead of making
friendly correspondents numerous, has made them few. The cheap
postage-stamp has increased business correspondence prodigiously,
but it has had a very different effect on that of friendship. Great
numbers of men whose business correspondence is heavy scarcely
write letters of friendship at all. Their minds produce the business
letter as by a second nature, and are otherwise sterile.
As for the facilities afforded by steam communication with distant
countries, they seem to be of little use to friendship, since a
moderate distance soon puts a stop to friendly communication.
Except in cases of strong affection the Straits of Dover are an
effectual though imaginary bar to intercourse of this kind, not to
speak of the great oceans.
The impediment created by a narrow sea is, as I have said,
imaginary, but we may speculate on the reasons for it; and my own
reflections have ended in the somewhat strange conclusion that it
must have something to do with sea-sickness. It must be that
people dislike the idea of writing a letter that will have to cross a
narrow channel of salt-water, because they vaguely and dimly dread
the motion of the vessel. Nobody would consciously avow to himself
such a sympathy with a missive exempt from all human ills, but the
feeling may be unconsciously present. How else are we to account
for the remarkable fact that salt-water breaks friendly
communication by letter? If you go to live anywhere out of your
native island your most intimate friends cease to give any news of
themselves. They do not even send printed announcements of the
marriages and deaths in their families. This does not imply any
cessation of friendly feeling on their part. If you appeared in England
again they would welcome you with the utmost kindness and
hospitality, but they do not like to post anything that will have to
cross the sea. The news-vendors have not the same delicate
imaginative sympathy with the possible sufferings of rag-pulp, so
you get your English journals and find therein, by pure accident, the
marriage of one intimate old friend and the death of another. You
excuse the married man, because he is too much intoxicated with
happiness to be responsible for any omission; and you excuse the
dead man, because he cannot send letters from another world. Still
you think that somebody not preoccupied by bridal joys or impeded
by the last paralysis might have sent you a line directly, were it only
a printed card.
Not only do the writers of letters feel a difficulty in sending their
manuscript across the sea, but people appear to have a sense of
difficulty in correspondence proportionate to the distance the letter
will have to traverse. One would infer that they really experience, by
the power of imagination, a feeling of fatigue in sending a letter on a
long journey. If this is not so, how are we to account for the fact
that the rarity of letters from friends increases in exact proportion to
our remoteness from them? A simple person without correspondence
would naturally imagine that it would be resorted to as a solace for
separation, and that the greater the distance the more the separated
friends would desire to be drawn together occasionally by its means,
but in practice this rarely happens. People will communicate by letter
across a space of a hundred miles when they will not across a
thousand.
The very smallest impediments are of importance when the desire
for intercourse is languid. The cost of postage to colonies and to
countries within the postal union is trifling, but still it is heavier than
the cost of internal postage, and it may be unconsciously felt as an
impediment. Another slight impediment is that the answer to a letter
sent to a great distance cannot arrive next day, so that he who
writes in hope of an answer is like a trader who cannot expect an
immediate return for an investment.
To prevent friendships from dying out entirely through distance, the
French have a custom which seems, but is not, an empty form. On
or about New Year’s Day they send cards to all friends and many
acquaintances, however far away. The useful effects of this custom
are the following:—
1. It acquaints you with the fact that your friend is still alive,—
pleasing information if you care to see him again.
2. It shows you that he has not forgotten you.
3. It gives you his present address.
4. In case of marriage, you receive his wife’s card along with his
own; and if he is dead you receive no card at all, which is at least a
negative intimation.[32]
This custom has also an effect upon written correspondence, as the
printed card affords the opportunity of writing a letter, when, without
the address, the letter might not be written. When the address is
well known the card often suggests the idea of writing.
When warm friends send visiting-cards they often add a few words
of manuscript on the card itself, expressing friendly sentiments and
giving a scrap of brief but welcome news.
Here is a suggestion to a generation that thinks friendly letter-
writing irksome. With a view to the sparing of time and trouble,
which is the great object of modern life (sparing, that is, in order to
waste in other ways), cards might be printed as forms of invitation
are, leaving only a few blanks to be filled up; or there might be a
public signal-book in which the phrases most likely to be useful
might be represented by numbers.
The abandonment of letter-writing between friends is the more to be
regretted that, unless our friends are public persons, we receive no
news of them indirectly; therefore, when we leave their
neighborhood, the separation is of that complete kind which
resembles temporary death. “No word comes from the dead,” and no
word comes from those silent friends. It is a melancholy thought in
leaving a friend of this kind, when you shake hands at the station
and still hear the sound of his voice, that in a few minutes he will be
dead to you for months or years. The separation from a
corresponding friend is shorn of half its sorrows. You know that he
will write, and when he writes it requires little imagination to hear
his voice again.
To write, however, is not all. For correspondence to reach its highest
value, both friends must have the natural gift of friendly letter-
writing, which may be defined as the power of talking on paper in
such a manner as to represent their own minds with perfect fidelity
in their friendly aspect.
This power is not common. A man may be a charming companion,
full of humor and gayety, a well of knowledge, an excellent talker,
yet his correspondence may not reveal the possession of these gifts.
Some men are so constituted that as soon as they take a pen their
faculties freeze. I remember a case of the same congelation in
another art. A certain painter had exuberant humor and mimicry,
with a marked talent for strong effects in talk; in short, he had the
gifts of an actor, and, as Pius VII. called Napoleon I., he was both
commediante and tragediante. Any one who knew him, and did not
know his paintings, would have supposed at once that a man so
gifted must have painted the most animated works; but it so
happened (from some cause in the deepest mysteries of his nature)
that whenever he took up a brush or a pencil his humor, his tragic
power, and his love of telling effects all suddenly left him, and he
was as timid, slow, sober, and generally ineffectual in his painting as
he was full of fire and energy in talk. So it is in writing. That which
ought to be the pouring forth of a man’s nature often liberates only
a part of his nature, and perhaps that part which has least to do
with friendship. Your friend delights you by his ease and affectionate
charm of manner, by the happiness of his expressions, by his wit, by
the extent of his information, all these being qualities that social
intercourse brings out in him as colors are revealed by light. The
same man, in dull solitude at his desk, may write a letter from which
every one of these qualities may be totally absent, and instead of
them he may offer you a piece of perfunctory duty-writing which, as
you see quite plainly, he only wanted to get done with, and in which
you do not find a trace of your friend’s real character. Such
correspondence as that is worth having only so far as it informs you
of your friend’s existence and of his health.
Another and a very different way in which a man may represent
himself unfairly in correspondence, so that his letters are not his real
self, is when he finds that he has some particular talent as a writer,
and unconsciously cultivates that talent when he holds a pen,
whereas his real self has many other qualities that remain
unrepresented. In this way humor may become the dominant quality
in the letters of a correspondent whose conversation is not
dominantly humorous.
Habits of business sometimes produce the effect that the confirmed
business correspondent will write to his friend willingly and promptly
on any matter of business, and will give him excellent advice, and be
glad of the opportunity of rendering him a service, but he will shrink
from the unaccustomed effort of writing any other kind of letter.
There is a strong temptation to blame silent friends and praise good
correspondents; but we do not reflect that letter-writing is a task to
some and a pleasure to others, and that if people may sometimes be
justly blamed for shirking a corvée they can never deserve praise for
indulging in an amusement. There is a particular reason why, when
friendly letter-writing is a task, it is more willingly put off than many
other tasks that appear far heavier and harder. It is either a real
pleasure or a feigned pleasure, and feigned pleasures are the most
wearisome things in life, far more wearisome than acknowledged
work. For in work you have a plain thing to do and you see the end
of it, and there is no need for ambages at the beginning or for a
graceful retiring at the close; but a feigned pleasure has its own
observances that must be gone through whether one has any heart
for them or not. The groom who cleans a rich man’s stable, and
whistles at his work, is happier than the guest at a state dinner who
is trying to look other than what he is,—a wearied victim of feigned
and formal pleasure with a set false smile upon his face. In writing a
business letter you have nothing to affect; but a letter of friendship,
unless you have the real inspiration for it, is a narrative of things you
have no true impulse to narrate, and the expression of feelings
which (even if they be in some degree existent) you do not earnestly
desire to utter.
The sentiment of friendship is in general rather a quiet feeling of
regard than any lively enthusiasm. It may be counted upon for what
it is,—a disposition to receive the friend with a welcome or to render
him an occasional service, but there is not, commonly, enough of it
to be a perennial warm fountain of literary inspiration. Therefore the
worst mistake in dealing with a friend is to reproach him for not
having been cordial and communicative enough. Sometimes this
reproach is made, especially by women, and the immediate effect of
it is to close whatever communicativeness there may be. If the
friend wrote little before being reproached he will write less after.
The true inspiration of the friendly letter is the perfect faith that all
the concerns of the writer will interest his friend. If James, who is
separated by distance from John, thinks that John will not care
about what James has been doing, hoping, suffering, the fount of
friendly correspondence is frozen at its source. James ought to
believe that John loves him enough to care about every little thing
that can affect his happiness, even to the sickness of his old horse or
the accident that happened to his dog when the scullery-maid threw
scalding water out of the kitchen window; then there will be no lack,
and James will babble on innocently through many a page, and
never have to think.
The believer in friendship, he who has the true undoubting faith,
writes with perfect carelessness about great things and small,
avoiding neither serious interests, as a wary man would, nor trivial
ones that might be passed over by a writer avaricious of his time.
William of Orange, in his letters to Bentinck, appears to have been
the model of friendly correspondents; and he was so because his
letters reflected not a part only of his thinking and living, but the
whole of it, as if nothing that concerned him could possibly be
without interest for the man he loved. Familiar as it must be to many
readers, I cannot but quote a passage from Macaulay:
“The descendants of Bentinck still preserve many letters
written by William to their master, and it is not too much
to say that no person who has not studied those letters
can form a correct notion of the Prince’s character. He
whom even his admirers generally accounted the most
frigid and distant of men here forgets all distinctions of
rank, and pours out all his thoughts with the
ingenuousness of a schoolboy. He imparts without reserve
secrets of the highest moment. He explains with perfect
simplicity vast designs affecting all the governments of
Europe. Mingled with his communications on such subjects
are other communications of a very different but perhaps
not of a less interesting kind. All his adventures, all his
 personal feelings, his long runs after enormous stags, his
carousals on St. Hubert’s Day, the growth of his
plantations, the failure of his melons, the state of his stud,
his wish to procure an easy pad-nag for his wife, his
vexation at learning that one of his household, after
ruining a girl of good family, refused to marry her, his fits
of sea-sickness, his coughs, his headaches, his devotional
moods, his gratitude for the Divine protection after a great
escape, his struggles to submit himself to the Divine will
after a disaster, are described with an amiable garrulity
hardly to have been expected from the most discreetly
sedate statesman of his age. Still more remarkable is the
careless effusion of his tenderness, and the brotherly
interest which he takes in his friend’s domestic felicity.”
Friendly letters easily run over from sheet to sheet till they become
ample and voluminous. I received a welcome epistle of twenty pages
recently, and have seen another from a young man to his comrade
which exceeded fifty; but the grandest letter that I ever heard of
was from Gustave Doré to a very old lady whom he liked. He was
travelling in Switzerland, and sent her a letter eighty pages long, full
of lively pen-sketches for her entertainment. Artists often insert
sketches in their letters,—a graceful habit, as it adds to their interest
and value.
The talent for scribbling friendly letters implies some rough literary
power, but may coexist with other literary powers of a totally
different kind, and, as it seems, in perfect independence of them.
There is no apparent connection between the genius in “Childe
Harold,” “Manfred,” “Cain,” and the talent of a lively letter-writer, yet
Byron was the best careless letter-writer in English whose
correspondence has been published and preserved. He said
“dreadful is the exertion of letter-writing,” but by this he must have
meant the first overcoming of indolence to begin the letter, for when
once in motion his pen travelled with consummate naturalness and
ease, and the exertion is not to be perceived. The length and subject
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