Opinion
Paper
34/2022 07/04/2022
Luis A. Hernández-García*
The grey zone: a conceptual
approach from the Armed Forces
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The grey zone: a conceptual approach from the Armed Forces
Abstract:
The current international system is characterized, among other features, by the
combination of an extreme competition between actors, with a great interdependence,
especially economic, of their relations. In this context, parties involved in international
disputes only rarely resort to open armed conflict as a means of resolving their disputes.
The aforementioned interdependence, together with the low tolerance of today's societies
with armed conflicts and especially with own casualties in armed conflicts, makes certain
actors resort to coercion to cause harm to their adversaries, leaving aside the use of lethal
force, though far beyond the principle of good faith (bona fide) which should prevail in the
legitimate international competition. To achieve this, they use hybrid strategies which,
with military deterrence as a backdrop, consist of multidimensional and integrated actions
in unconventional areas of confrontation such as economic, cyber, legal, demographic,
diplomatic and, above all, informative, to mention only some of the most relevant.
Keywords:
Grey zone, Armed Forces, hybrid strategies.
HERNÁNDEZ-GARCÍA, Luis A. The grey zone: a conceptual approach from the Armed
Forces. Opinion Paper IEEE 34/2022.
https://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_opinion/2022/DIEEEO34_2022_LUISHER_Zona_EN
G.pdf and/or link bie3 (accessed on the web day/month/year)
*NOTE: The ideas contained in the Opinion Papers shall be responsibility of their authors,
without necessarily reflecting the thinking of the IEEE or the Ministry of Defense.
Opinion Paper 34/2022 1
The grey zone: a conceptual approach from the Armed Forces
Luis A. Hernández-García
Introduction
"War", "threat", "hybrid strategy" and "grey zone" are terms that have been in common
use for some years now in specialised strategic geopolitical terminology, including in
official national or international security and defence organisations' documentation.
In recent times, they have been incorporated relatively frequently into publications and
reflections of a more informative nature, aimed at the general public, always to refer to a
type of international conflict that combines the action of conventional armed forces with
other aggressions beyond those attributable to legitimate competition, in non-
conventional spheres, such as the economic, cybernetic, legal, demographic, diplomatic
and, above all, informational to mention some of the most relevant.
To a certain extent like that of times past, saving technological and global interrelationship
distances, today’s geopolitics is plagued by this type of confrontation, which we venture
to describe as hybrid or grey, guided by our own intuition, in clear reference to the mixed
nature of the ways and means employed when settling disputes.
Apart from their generic nature, all of them have differentiating characteristics and
circumstances that mean that no two grey zone or hybrid conflicts are identical, leading
to each case having to be dealt with by following an ad hoc strategy.
Although its roots go back many years to the end of the last century, and especially to
March 2014, the current conflict in Ukraine is proof of this. Economic sanctions, intense
diplomatic negotiations, social mobilisation, forced migration flows, cyber-attacks,
propaganda, disinformation, challenges to sovereignty, fait accompli policies and threats
of nuclear escalation are intermingled in this confrontation with demonstrations of force,
large-scale manoeuvres and, since 24 February, the massive use of artillery and the
territorial advance of Russian military forces, currently engaged in open combat with the
Ukrainian defence forces.
However, the existing literature on "hybridity", including specialised literature, often leads
to confusion when the terms mentioned at the beginning of this text are used
interchangeably. It does so in a way that is not always accurate, without delimiting the
scope of the terms, which refer to largely overlapping concepts and with such a wide
range of connotations that any action of international aggression is indistinctly described
as hybrid or grey zone.
Opinion Paper 34/2022 2
The grey zone: a conceptual approach from the Armed Forces
Luis A. Hernández-García
The lack of clear and distinctive definitions of the categories of "hybrid" and "grey zone",
added to the disproportionate breadth of their conceptual scope for those who use them,
render them useless for practical purposes as they are imprecise and unwieldy. This
makes it very difficult to operationalise them, which is essential to evolve from the abstract
to the tangible, and makes it practically impossible to manage them for planning or
organisational purposes, should it be necessary.
Furthermore, given the multidimensional nature of these conflicts, which transcend the
mere confrontation of conventional military forces (often absent beyond the dissuasive
effect of their mere possession), it seems advisable to try to define the role reserved for
the military instrument as one of a state's available instruments to confront the grey zone,
since it is clear that there is no grey zone without armed forces, either as a key element
of dissuasion or as support for the civilian element (Baqués, 2021)1.
The concept note "The role of the SAF in the grey zone" (NCZG)
Through the Joint Concept Development Centre (JDC) of the Force Development Division
(DIVDEF) of EMACON, the Defence Staff has just published the concept note 2 for official
use "The Role of the Armed Forces (FAS) in the Grey Zone" (NCZG), which combines a
conceptual approach to what is understood by the grey zone and the possibilities offered
by military capabilities as an instrument of power in the hands of the State to confront
scenarios of this nature.
The work reflected in the NCZG has been developed by a group of civilian and military
subject matter experts, coordinated for five months by the CCDC, following the
methodology of concept development and experimentation (CD&E). The project has
opted for a collaborative and iterative approach, considering both the most relevant open
source literature and the official documents and results of military seminars in recent
years, both nationally and internationally.
1 BAQUÉS, Josep. De las guerras híbridas a la zona gris: la metamorfosis de los conflictos en el siglo XXI. UNED,
Madrid, 2021, pp. 165-170.
2 A concept note is a "forward-looking reflection document, smaller than a concept, which investigates reference
elements with a view to further conceptual development. Their timeliness will normally stem from changes in the
operational environment, possibilities of improving capabilities with new technologies, organisational changes, new
procedures, or other causes" (JEMAD. Communicated Instruction 10/21, "Joint Concepts Instruction". November
2021).
Opinion Paper 34/2022 3
The grey zone: a conceptual approach from the Armed Forces
Luis A. Hernández-García
The starting point for the NCZG is the definition of the term found in PDC-01 (A) 3, which
refers to the "grey zone" as "the area of the conflict spectrum where actions outside the
principle of good faith between states (bona fide) predominate which, while significantly
disturbing the peace, do not cross the thresholds that would permit or require an armed
response".
With regard to the terminology itself, the concept note takes advantage of the
interchangeability observed in the common use of the term "grey zone” and "war", "threat”
and "hybrid strategy" to attempt to clarify what is meant by each of them.
Thus, taking as a reference the spectrum of conflict, which evolves from a situation of
peace to that of war or armed conflict to return to peace through post-conflict, the grey
zone is understood as a space on this spectrum which, despite being characterised by
extreme competition beyond the principle of good faith (bona fide), is located in what is
commonly understood as peace, including post-conflict, and always without crossing the
threshold of casus belli, which would provoke open military combat.
As a matter of semantics, hybrid warfare, by contrast, falls within the spectrum
traditionally occupied by war or armed conflict beyond the casus belli, whatever its nature.
Indeed, returning to the topicality of the conflict in Ukraine, some authors argue that
Russia includes a significant role for conventional confrontation in its conception and
execution of hybrid warfare (Clark, 2020)0) 4.
The establishment of a grey zone usually has revisionist objectives on the aggressor side,
i.e., they seek a reordering of the regional or international geopolitical status quo because
they consider it to be unfair or unfavourable to their interests. To achieve these objectives,
a non-lethal means will initially be employed, while the aim to cause damage, destabilise
or set up a scenario in which to exploit a strategic advantage over the adversary remains.
Once achieved, aggression will, at least initially, remain in this grey zone mode as an end
in itself.
On other occasions, however, when objectives cannot be achieved without resorting to
the overt use of military force, the grey zone is used as a prelude to war, whether hybrid
or conventional. Turning to the Ukraine conflict today, the international community has
3MINISTRY OF DEFENCE. PDC-01(A). Doctrina para el empleo de las FAS. 2018.
4CLARK, Mason. Russian Hybrid Warfare, Military Learning and the Future of War Series. Institute for the Study of
War (ISW), Washington DC, September 2020.
Opinion Paper 34/2022 4
The grey zone: a conceptual approach from the Armed Forces
Luis A. Hernández-García
witnessed the evolution of the conflict from a grey zone scenario to one that also includes
armed conflict.
"As far as the war in Ukraine is concerned, neither the United States nor European
countries, including Spain, are acting as neutrals, but as non-belligerents. In other
words, political and military support for Ukraine's legitimate defence inevitably
means reciprocating to the escalation in the grey zone initiated by Moscow. While
the dyad of conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not a grey area but a war
(black), the dyad between Russia and Western countries has shifted from 'light
grey' (disinformation campaigns, political interference, light cyber-attacks, etc.) to
a darker grey5.
Once open military confrontation has ceased, it seems appropriate to consider a more
than likely return to the region of the dynamics of confrontation in the grey zone.
Continuing with the terminological question, a hybrid strategy is the multidimensional and
integrated planning of different instruments of power (political, economic, diplomatic,
military, legal, cognitive, etc.) that an international actor employs to attack an adversary,
directly or through proxy agents, for coercive purposes.
The actor who supports the application of such strategies as the aggrieved party
considers them from their perspective as a hybrid threat. Hybrid strategies and thus hybrid
threats exist across the entire spectrum of conflict, both in peacetime (grey zone) and war
(hybrid warfare).
Hybrid strategies are formed by bringing together actions of the most varied nature,
ranging from the twisted application of laws and manipulating their execution, to covert
operations, sabotage, economic boycotts, cyber-attacks, the promotion of illicit trafficking,
disinformation, social unrest, terrorist actions, espionage, demonstrations of military
force, etc., a long list whose limits are dictated solely by the aggressor's creative and
innovative capacity.
Figure 1 shows the outline of what is considered a grey zone in relation to hybrid warfare,
in addition to the notions of hybrid threat and hybrid strategy.
5 JORDÁN, Javier. “Una oscura “zona gris”, Global Strategy, 7 March 2022. Available at: https://global-
strategy.org/una-oscura-zona-gris/ [see: 14 March 2022].
Opinion Paper 34/2022 5
The grey zone: a conceptual approach from the Armed Forces
Luis A. Hernández-García
Figure 1. The grey zone in the context of the conflict spectrum
Characteristics and elements of the grey zone
Having established the conceptual nuance of the different terms, the intrinsic
characteristics of a grey zone must be described since the second source of confusion
generated by some geopolitical analyses is to consider any aggressive action of a non-
military nature on the international stage as an indicator that there is a conflict of this type
between two international actors.
Thus, it is first necessary to highlight the long-term confrontational nature of any
generation of a grey zone by an aggressor power. This will consist of the sustained
application over time of strategies of a hybrid nature, which include a variety of actions
aimed, as has been said, at revisionism, although on occasions they may merely be of
acts of sustained destabilisation or of taking advantage of the situation at a later date.
These strategies, often unthinkable until they are implemented, are frequently innovative,
difficult to detect and difficult to monitor. Hybrid strategies materialise in various spheres
of international relations, using the most varied instruments of power, although the
military, due to its coercive effect, the informative, due to the relevance of the narratives
and their assimilation by different audiences, and the economic, due to the high impact
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The grey zone: a conceptual approach from the Armed Forces
Luis A. Hernández-García
on society and its daily way of life, will always be present in their design. This
multidimensional and integrated character makes them a key element for the generation
of synergies, optimising the effects, means and efforts of the aggressor.
Likewise, on many occasions, identification and, above all, legal attribution of authorship
is practically impossible, as channels such as cyberspace or techniques like
disinformation are used to carry them out. All this, together with the diffuse nature of the
respective tolerance thresholds of the parties involved, means that ambiguity
predominates in this type of scenario.
In this way, whether due to the difficulty of detecting the aggression, its small size or the
ambiguity generated, the aggressor will normally try to avoid forceful reactions from the
aggrieved party by manipulating his response threshold, taking advantage of the situation
to progressively increase their strategic advantage.
It can therefore be affirmed that the hybrid strategies that occur in this type of scenario
are applied gradually by the aggressor, as the grey zone is not homogeneous in its
intensity or in the effects sought but depends on the moment, and the escalation typical
of any conflict also takes place there.
Thus, on certain occasions, the aggressor will focus more on setting the scene, using
propaganda or disinformation for example, in an attempt to progressively gain a strategic
advantage over the adversary to increase the efficiency of subsequent interventions. In
others, the aggressor will actively interfere, even in a limited way, in the political, social
or economic life of his adversary, using intrusive actions aimed at coercion, attrition or
degradation. At the highest level of escalation intensity, it will be resolutely committed to
regular acts of destabilisation, if possible from anonymity, and may generate critical
episodes of confrontation.
The civilian population is another characteristic element of conflicts in the grey zone, its
role having evolved from that of previous conflicts. Societies have gone from being mere
patient subjects in conventional conflicts to becoming the preferred object of influence,
thereby adopting a new role. This is none other than that of being used as a "space" for
operations, insofar as the cognitive influence exercised by the aggressor uses ordinary
people, through the manipulation of perceptions and wills, to convert them into a vector
of attack for the adversary or, at the very least, into necessary accomplices for the
achievement of their objectives.
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The grey zone: a conceptual approach from the Armed Forces
Luis A. Hernández-García
Due to the above, as noted previously, the role played by narratives in this type of conflict
is critical, both those employed by the aggressor for purposes of disinformation, lawfare,
propaganda or mere social agitation, and those generated by the aggrieved party to
counteract the former and increase social resilience, which is so necessary in this type of
scenario.
Another important aspect when studying the grey zone is the actors involved, be they
aggressors, intermediaries or the aggrieved party. The main actors in a grey zone are
usually states, as can be seen from the abundant literature on the subject.
States will carry out their aggression directly or through the conscious or unconscious use
of proxies, which can be third states, non-state actors (ranging from sub-state entities to
terrorist groups or transnational organised crime groups) and even organisations
belonging to civil society and the private sphere with sufficient capacity to act as a vector
or multiplier of the effects of hybrid strategies. The latter category includes, among others,
certain NGOs, companies in strategic sectors, media corporations, diasporas, ethnic
minorities, hacker groups, religious organisations, and political or cultural associations.
When one of these non-state actors possesses competences and instruments in various
spheres of international relations (political, economic, diplomatic, legal, cognitive, etc.),
with military or military-like backing, for the purpose of single-handedly applying hybrid
strategies to a state for revisionist or destabilising purposes, the dispute created can also
come to be seen as part of the phenomenon of grey zone confrontation.
Military capabilities for action in the grey zone
The reaction to grey zone aggression is a reality that must be faced always and without
exception by the attacked party, with the fundamental objective,despite it seeming
contradictory, of avoiding an escalation, either in intensity within the grey zone itself or in
the evolution of the dispute into an open armed conflict, be it conventional or hybrid.
To this end, the attacked party must design its own ad hoc strategy, which will define the
objectives, means and ways of counteracting the aggression not only from a patient
perspective, but also proactively, opting for prevention and a comprehensive approach
that coordinates all state and, where appropriate, international instruments of power
within its reach to deter, detect and respond to the aggression.
Opinion Paper 34/2022 8
The grey zone: a conceptual approach from the Armed Forces
Luis A. Hernández-García
Regardless of the use of all kinds of tools in the most varied fields or instruments of power,
for example economic sanctions, diplomatic negotiation or the elaboration of narratives,
to name but a few, the whole comprehensive approach is based on two essential
elements, in addition to the conventional military one: early detection and social
resilience.
The early detection of hybrid strategies must take the form of a system of indicators and
alerts, integrated at the state and, if necessary, international level, capable of monitoring
indicators other than strictly military ones, placing special emphasis on dimensions such
as the diplomatic, political, social, informational, and economic, etc. Social resilience, as
mentioned above, is about increasing the population's capacity to withstand a wide range
of aggressions from hybrid threats, both physically, including infrastructure, supplies and
living conditions, and mentally, involving security culture, psychological resilience and
accurate information.
With respect to the instrument of military power, its participation in the comprehensive
approach to respond to this type of aggression will always be limited and complementary
to that of the other instruments because it takes place in a situation of peace, while
remaining essential. Thus, the main role of the armed forces is to project an adequate
level of military deterrence which, together with that provided in their respective spheres
by other instruments of state power, controls a potential escalation towards armed
conflict.
In addition, the intrinsic characteristics of the armed forces, their resilience, discipline,
unity and organisational hierarchy, make them particularly well suited to planning and
execution in these scenarios, in which timing and the early stages of detection and
reaction are critical.
Furthermore, the possession of adequate distinctive capabilities in all areas of operation,
including being well equipped technologically and having properly enlisted and trained
recruits, enables the armed forces to contribute to the comprehensive approach of the
state as a whole, and by means of deterrence, in the most varied tasks of detecting and
responding to aggression in the grey zone.
These capabilities include support and advice to civilian authorities on issues related
mainly to public security and emergencies or military cyber defence, which can contribute
to overall state action in the grey zone through its three main capabilities, defence,
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The grey zone: a conceptual approach from the Armed Forces
Luis A. Hernández-García
exploitation and attack.
In close coordination with cyberspace operations, and given their intrinsic characteristics
of non-lethality and the difficulty of detection and consequent attribution they sometimes
have, electromagnetic operations are a tool likely to be commonly used in these
scenarios.
Special operations units, which are usually small in size and highly versatile, can be used
very effectively in this kind of confrontation, as they provide a wide range of response
options, allowing for better management and control of a potential escalation.
Military intelligence can be a key element in contributing to the indispensable system of
integrated state-level warning indicators for early detection of hybrid strategies. It can also
contribute to the analysis of the surrounding circumstances or the intended effects. The
contribution of military intelligence is of particular importance for the security of national
interests abroad in areas of operations where own forces are deployed.
Logistics is another area where the military instrument can provide decisive support
through the use of its capabilities. The deployment, sustainment and redeployment of
material and people in the most varied scenarios will be essential in situations like these
that require efficient and timely mobility.
In particular, existing military infrastructures on national territory and abroad can provide
critical support not only for operations, including logistics, but also as sites for the
provision of basic services to the civilian population or to personnel from other
administrations. In this regard, logistical support is one of the military capabilities that can
most strengthen necessary resilience, not only of the Armed Forces, but of society as a
whole.
The military instrument can also contribute to operations in the cognitive sphere, where
the capacity to elaborate narratives and counter-narratives is essential for the
configuration of scenarios, the legitimisation of one's own actions and the dismantling of
those of the adversary. Military expertise can be very important in analysing the situation
and advising on the necessary overall strategy of the state, and also in matters of military
public affairs or in conducting intelligence or psychological operations, especially at the
operational and tactical levels.
Cooperative security, for its part, will be essential as a contribution to the prevention of
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The grey zone: a conceptual approach from the Armed Forces
Luis A. Hernández-García
grey zone scenarios involving third states that it supports, strengthening their resilience
in the face of radicalisation or the actions of hostile non-state actors, among other
alternatives, by advising local leaders, training personnel and units and providing financial
support for the improvement of security-related capabilities.
For the design of an adequate state approach that can coordinate all these capabilities
for action in the grey zone, the following will be essential: the existence of an adequate
legal framework, both national and international; the possession of a robust and reliable
command, control, telecommunications and digital network (C4) system and
interoperable capabilities between the different instruments of state power; joint planning
oriented towards this type of threat; and intelligence sharing.
The paper also refers to the important role that emerging and disruptive technologies
(EDT) seem likely to play. The exponential technological development of recent times
and what is yet to come in the fields of information technology, biotechnology and new
materials greatly facilitates innovation in modes of confrontation.
Thus, the aggressor can use them to cause confusion and destabilise the economic,
social and political fabric of the attacked societies, especially the more developed ones,
given their technological dependence. In turn, the understanding and use of technology
will be of great use to the aggrieved party in countering, or at least minimising, these
threats.
In this regard, the use of artificial intelligence or big data is set to play an important role
in terms of situation analysis, situational awareness and accelerated decision making,
and will be crucial for future C2 systems, especially in a multi-domain operations
environment. The incorporation of quantum computing will be essential to ensure the
security of communications and information, becoming an indispensable element for
operating in cyberspace.
The possession of outer space-related technologies will also be crucial at a time when
aerospace systems are gaining prominence in international competition in areas such as
communications, geolocation and earth observation.
New materials will lead to more versatile, cheaper, lighter and stronger capabilities, while
advances in and optimisation of human capabilities will open the door to action in as yet
little known areas of operation, such as the cognitive field. Given their precision,
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The grey zone: a conceptual approach from the Armed Forces
Luis A. Hernández-García
intentionality and intrinsically deterrent nature, non-lethal weapons, for their part, seem
set to play an important role in grey zone conflicts.
Conclusions
Grey zone conflicts are still very much alive and well today. In a highly interdependent
international scenario, especially in economic terms, that is technologically advanced and
interconnected from an information and communication point of view, this type of conflict
is a predictable gamble on the part of regional or international revisionist powers, as the
aggressor is capable of achieving strategic objectives similar to those of a war without
bloodshed and at a lower cost in terms of resources and reputation.
States must prepare for grey zone conflicts by adopting a comprehensive approach that
coordinates the action of all instruments of power at their disposal, including the military
instrument. Although with a limited and complementary role to other civilian capabilities,
the military instrument is an essential element both in terms of deterrence and because
of its intrinsic characteristics and the contribution of many of its distinctive capabilities in
support of other state capabilities and social resilience.
EMAD's recent publication of a concept note on "The Role of the SAF in the Grey Zone"
(NCZG) is an important step forward in both the terminological harmonisation of the
specialised geopolitical vocabulary around "hybridity" in the armed forces and the
identification of the military capabilities that can best contribute to the state's
comprehensive approach to dealing with such a conflict.
Luis A. Hernández-García*
Lieutenant Colonel, EMACON/DIVDEF
Opinion Paper 34/2022 12
