CODESRIA Bulletin Online, No.

7, March 2022 Page 1

Online Article

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: What does it mean

R
ussia’s invasion of Ukraine system, though fragile, could
marks a decisive end to the still be described as an electoral
post-Cold War security re- Yusuf Bangura democracy in that relatively free
gime that has governed the strained Nyon, Switzerland and competitive elections were
but stable relations between the regularly held. However, within
West and Russia and guaranteed a few years of his rule, Putin
the independence of East Europe- reined in independent political
country’s economy (Gould-Davies
an countries and former Soviet re- organisations, developed the brutal
and Woods 1999; Crotty 2020). In-
publics over the last three decades. tactic of poisoning his key critics,
deed, former Russian foreign min-
The invasion threatens the secu- controlled national television
ister and prime minister, Yevgeny
rity of small nations and reinforces stations and other media, weakened
Primakov, believes that Russia’s
the illiberal turn in world politics the power of the oligarchs who
losses under the IMF were twice
by challenging the body of rights had been empowered by fire sales
as large as those suffered during
and democratic norms that gained of state assets, and concentrated
World War II (Arkangelskaya and
ascendancy in the 1990s. African power in the presidency (McFaul
Shubin 2013).
opinion- and policy-makers should 2021). Supreme political authority
understand what this portends for Many Russians saw the IMF provided the basis for challenging
the continent. loan agreements as an attack on Western hegemony and reclaiming
Russia’s sovereignty (Gould- former Soviet lands.
Russia’s transition from commu-
Davies and Woods 1999) and
nism to capitalism was messy: its Ever since he came to power,
an attempt to turn Russia into a
economy contracted by about 40 Putin has been obsessed with
vassal state of the West. Indeed,
per cent after a shock therapy of recreating the boundaries of the
the loss of the Soviet republics,
price liberalisation and privatisa- Soviet Union as Russian territory.
the deep economic recession, and
tion, inflation skyrocketed, the ru- In 2005, he told the world that
dependence on Western institutions
ble plummeted, and shortages of the collapse of the Soviet Union
for finance profoundly weakened
basic food items became the norm. ‘was the greatest geopolitical
Russia’s status as a global power
While the employment data did catastrophe of the century’ and a
and provoked a conservative and
not show any mass layoffs, about ‘genuine tragedy’ for the Russian
neonationalist turn in domestic
a quarter of the workforce was on people as ‘tens of millions’ of
politics. Russians yearned for a
unpaid or low-paid leave. A third of Russians found themselves outside
strong leader who would reverse
the population fell into poverty and Russian territory (BBC 2005).
the decline and restore the country’s
the social protections developed in His strategic view of the world
position in the comity of nations.
the Soviet era proved insufficient is a throwback to the Concert of
for maintaining basic wellbe- After winning several fairly Europe of the nineteenth century
ing. Boris Yeltsin, the first post- credible elections and stabilising the in which the great powers had
communist president, sought and economy with the help of soaring vested interests and spheres of
Russia was granted membership oil and gas prices, Vladimir Putin, influence, intervened in the internal
of the IMF in 1992 and obtained an ex-KGB official, fit the bill of a affairs of small states and acted
a series of loans with tough condi- new messiah. When Putin assumed collectively to maintain a balance
tionalities that did not improve the power in 2000, Russia’s political of power or security in Europe.
 CODESRIA Bulletin Online, No. 7, March 2022 Page 2

Such a system is antithetical to in 2003 by invading Iraq under million ethnic Russians who reside
the current multilateral norms and the false pretence of looking for in the new ex-Soviet countries.
arrangements that seek to curb weapons of mass destruction. The creation of the Soviet Union
unilateralist behaviour by states. And there have been countless in 1917 was accompanied by
other US interventions in foreign the Russification of non-Russian
The US and its Western allies countries that clearly violated the republics, through a process that
did not only refuse to dismantle rules-based international order, involved the deportation of large
NATO, they proceeded to expand it including the use of lethal drone numbers of disloyal individuals
to include former Soviet republics strikes in Pakistan and Arab from indigenous populations and
and East European countries. countries. In his United States the encouragement of Russians
This was a strategic blunder of of War: A Global History of to migrate and fill gaps in labour
enormous proportions, especially America’s Endless Conflicts, from markets and public administrations.
as Putin wanted Russia to join the Columbus to the Islamic State One of the most glaring examples of
alliance but was told that he had (2020), David Vine observes that Russification was the displacement
to apply like any state seeking the US ‘has been at war or has of the German population in
membership (Rankin 2021). Hubris invaded other countries almost Kaliningrad (which does not even
or triumphalism clouded Western every year since its independence’. share a border with Russia but is
strategic policy-making. Many wedged between Lithuania, Poland
bought the dubious and self-serving Liberal values have also eroded and the Baltic Sea) and the massive
idea of the end of history—that in the US, where there was an at- migration of Russians into the
markets and democracy would now tempt in January 2021 to prevent a region after Germany’s defeat in the
determine how states are governed, transfer of power to the winner of Second World War. Joseph Stalin
and that the US would be the only the presidential election, and laws occupied, demanded and was given
superpower and would do as it are being passed in Republican- the right to annex Königsberg (the
pleased in policing the world. This controlled state legislatures to limit previous name of Kaliningrad) by
posture fuelled Putin’s suspicion black participation in the electoral the Allied Powers as compensation
that the West still regarded Russia process and overturn election re- for the mass suffering Russians
as an enemy and was not serious sults. Putin’s anti-liberalism is, had been subjected to by Nazi
about world peace. In the logic of however, visceral or an article of Germany. Winston Churchill, the
realpolitik and national security, faith and serves as an instrument British prime minister, supported
the borders of states, especially for resurrecting Russian power. In the expulsion (ethnic cleansing) of
those of great powers, should be this regard, Russia has emerged as Germans from Königsberg. In his
free of antagonistic military forces. a leading actor in disinformation, words, ‘expulsion is the method
It is highly unlikely that Estonia cyberattacks and tampering with which, in so far as we have been able
and Latvia, which share a common the electoral processes of Western to see, will be the most satisfactory
border with Russia, would have and other democracies. Russia’s and lasting. There will be no
been allowed to join NATO if hacking of Hilary Clinton’s and mixture of populations to cause
Russia had regained its confidence the Democratic National Com- endless trouble’ (Sukhankin 2018:
and was governed by a resolute mittee’s emails, and its collusion 41). In 1945, there were only 5,000
and calculating leader like Putin. with Wikileaks to influence the Russians and more than 100,000
Matters were not helped when 2018 elections in favour of Donald Germans in Königsberg; by 1948
NATO signalled that it would Trump, another leader with an au- about 400,000 Soviets had moved
consider Ukraine’s membership of thoritarian mindset’, is instructive. into the region. There are now only
the alliance. It is clear from Putin’s pronounce- 1,600 Germans or about 0.4 per
ments that he is unhappy with the cent of the population; Russians
There are two key planks in post-Cold War security arrange-
Putin’s strategy to revive Russia’s currently account for 87 per cent of
ments and the global rules-based the population (Wikipediaa).
power. The first is his challenge liberal order, which he believes
of liberal values and the rules- shackle his quest for global power. After the collapse of the Soviet
based multilateral system. It must Union, Ukraine had the largest
be stressed that the attack on The second plank of Putin’s strategy number of ethnic Russians (about
liberalism is not just a Russian is to claw back lost territories 8,300,000, or 17.2 per cent of the
problem. The US and its allies along Russia’s border. The vehicle population), followed by Kazakhstan
ignored UN rules and procedures for realising this strategy is the 25
 CODESRIA Bulletin Online, No. 7, March 2022 Page 3

(3,600,000, or 20.2 per cent of the which Putin regards as a spiritual try on Russia’s southern border,
population), Belarus (785,000) and cultural home for Russians and Mongolia, relies on Russia to coun-
and Uzbekistan (750,000). How- which, as we have seen, hosts the ter Chinese threats to its territory.
ever, Latvia (487,250, or 25.2 per largest number of Russia’s dias-
cent of the population) and Es- pora. The pattern for annexation The two-plank strategy of disdain
tonia (322,700, or 24.2 per cent) is clear: ethnic Russians complain for the liberal rules-based world
have higher percentages of ethnic about discrimination and declare order and the annexation of ex-
Russians than all other countries independence in their localities, Soviet republics is underpinned
(Wikipediab). Relations between the Russian army is sent in to de- by a policy of reducing Russia’s
ethnic Russians and host nations fend them, the Russian Parliament economic dependence on the West
are often tense as the latter seek recognises the breakaway territo- in order to be able to withstand
to undo historical injustices. I ob- ries, and Putin formalises the pro- sanctions. The Economist (2022)
served in 2004 the deep animosity cess by incorporating the territories reckons that Russia has reduced
between Latvians and ethnic Rus- into Russia. The popular uprising its debt to just 20 per cent of GDP,
sians when I organised an UN- in 2014 against the Ukrainian pres- built formidable reserves of USD
RISD conference in Riga, the capi- ident, Viktor Yanukovych (who 620 billion and created a ‘fortress
tal (with the UNDP office in Latvia was critical of Ukraine’s applica- economy’. The extent to which
acting as hosts), to discuss the find- tion to join the EU), his removal such measures will insulate the
ings of our multi-country research from office and subsequent exile to Russian economy, and the appetite
project on Ethnic Inequalities and Moscow may have been a turning of its nomenklatura and oligarchs
Governance of the Public Sector. point for Putin. for Western goods and services,
The current Latvian deputy prime from the current raft of Western
minister and defence minister, Ar- The first invasion of Ukraine was sanctions remains to be seen.
tis Pabriks, who was a researcher in 2014 in Crimea, where ethnic
Russians account for 65 per cent of Implications for Africa
at the time, conducted the Latvian
study. Memories of the 60,000 or the population. The failure of the Russia’s mission to upend the
more Latvians deported to Sibe- Western powers to draw a line on liberal rules-based multilateral
ria by Soviet leaders just after the Crimea emboldened Putin to mount order suggests a lack of confidence
Second World War were still fresh a second invasion of the country. in its ability to use those rules to
among Latvians, who also disliked Again, as in the first invasion, eth- catch up with the West. Playing
the fact that Russians constituted nic Russians complained about rogue is the weapon of great powers
the majority population in their maltreatment, they seized Donetsk in decline. In this regard, Russia’s
capital city. Russians, on the other and Luhansk in the Donbas region, behaviour contrasts sharply with
hand, complained about language where they constitute a majority, the that of China, a rising economic
laws and tough citizenship rules Russian military rendered support, and technological powerhouse,
that made it difficult for Russians Russia’s Parliament recognised which seeks to use—not disrupt—
to obtain citizenship under the their autonomy and Putin sent in the the existing global arrangements to
new government. military for a full invasion, which, challenge Western hegemony and
this time, may involve the annexa- attain its goal of superpower status.
Putin has used the agitation of eth- tion of the entire country. Russia’s Russia is not even among the top ten
nic Russians for equal treatment as strategy for the countries bordering largest economies in the world: its
a basis for invading the new terri- its southern border, which are less GDP of USD 1.4 trillion is dwarfed
tories. The forerunner to the inva- antagonistic, involves the creation by those of the US (about USD
sion of Ukraine was Russia’s inter- of a regional alliance (the Collec- 20 trillion) and China (USD 14
vention in the conflict in 2008 in tive Security Treaty Organisa- trillion). Russia’s GDP equals that
Abhkazia and South Ossetia, in tion) of Russia, Armenia, Belarus, of Brazil but lags behind India and
Georgia, in which Russia supported Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajik- even the Republic of Korea, with
and later recognised the two break- istan, and turning these countries a population of only 50 million.
away territories from Georgia. into puppet states. This allowed Despite a few pockets of excellence
Despite the very small number of Russia to send troops to oil-rich and an educated workforce,
ethnic Russians in those territories, Kazakhstan in January 2022 to Russia is also outmatched in the
residents there now carry Russian put down anti-government pro- technological field: it spends just
passports. The big prize is Ukraine, tests. The other non-Soviet coun- 1 per cent of its GDP on research
 CODESRIA Bulletin Online, No. 7, March 2022 Page 4

and development; its corporations sion of Sweden and Switzerland Big powers have historically carved
conduct little or no research; and to fully participate in the Western out areas that they regard as spheres
the country as a whole trails China, sanctions makes them vulnerable of influence. The Monroe Doctrine,
the US, Japan, Korea, Germany to Russian retaliation if they re- for instance, informed the foreign
and India in patent applications. Its main outside the military alliance. policy of the US for much of the
technological strength is in near- nineteenth and twentieth centuries.
space exploration, rocket engines The doctrine of spheres of Under this doctrine, the US viewed
and military hardware; however, influence undermines the efforts by European powers to
research suggests that there have security of small nations influence or control countries in the
been hardly any spillovers from The invasion and unfolding Americas as a threat to US security.
such sectors into the civil sphere geopolitical crisis have serious In exchange, the US agreed to not
(Sanghi and Yusuf 2018). implications for Africa. Three interfere in the affairs of Europe
stand out in bold relief. The first is and its colonies. When, in 1962,
While Russia is an economic dwarf, Nikita Khrushchev, the Soviet
it ranks second to the US in the the danger of reinstitutionalising
the doctrine of spheres of influence leader, decided to station nuclear
global firepower index, or military weapons on Cuban soil, just 145
capability (Armstrong 2022) and in the governance of the world
system. Putin regards the territories kilometres (90 miles) off the coast
has the largest number of nuclear of the US, John Kennedy saw it
warheads in the world—6,257 to of the former Soviet republics as
‘historical Russian land’, which as an act of war and threatened
the US’s 5,500 and China’s 350 to take them out by blockading
(World Population Review 2022). suggests that Russia has the right to
take them back or intervene in them Cuba. Khrushchev caved in and
This asymmetry between military Kennedy agreed to not invade
power and economic and tech- to get the leaders of those countries
to submit to Russian demands. Cuba. As imperial powers, the
nological prowess may explain foreign policies of France, the UK
Putin’s infatuation with military Putin’s address to the world on the
day of the invasion is telling. In and Portugal have also been driven
might and willingness to use it to by notions of spheres of influence.
assert Russia’s status as a global that long and rambling speech, he
asserted that ‘The problem is that Britain struggled to maintain
power. The wide-ranging sanc- control of its ex-colonies after it
tions recently imposed on Russia in territories adjacent to Russia,
which I have noted is our historical agreed to give them independence;
suggest that the West is willing to it created the Sterling Area and
stand up to Russia by isolating it land, a hostile anti-Russia is taking
shape’1 This statement suggests Commonwealth system to defend
from vital areas of global finance, the waning international role of the
trade, investment, technology, en- that Latvia, Estonia, Belarus,
Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan and pound sterling. Under this system,
tertainment and travel. The scale it tried to compel the newly
of the sanctions is unprecedented. Kazakhstan belong to, and will
always be contested by, Russia. independent countries to retain the
We may well be witnessing the colonial currency boards instead
return of the Iron Curtain, which Part of Putin’s problem of seeing
ex-Soviet republics as Russian of creating central banks, maintain
may plunge Europe into protracted their reserves in the UK treasury,
instability as Russia fights back territory is that the Russian empire
was the only empire in Europe tie their currencies to sterling and
to break free from isolation. It is pursue extremely restrictive fiscal
highly unlikely now that Ukraine that survived the First World War.
The Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian policies (spending only what they
will be admitted into NATO. How- earned as foreign exchange) in
ever, the invasion has given NATO and German empires all collapsed
in 1918 and a host of new nations exchange for the UK directing its
a new lease of life and produced an investments, trade and aid flows
outcome that Putin wanted to pre- were born. The Russian empire was
simply transformed into the Union towards them (Bangura 1983).
vent: NATO troops and potential And through the franc zone, France
instability on Russia’s western bor- of Soviet Socialist Republics when
the Bolsheviks took power in 1917. continues to exercise considerable
der. Neutral Western countries like control over the monetary policies
Sweden, Finland, Ireland and even However, the fact that the ex-Soviet
republics have enjoyed only three of the Francophone African
Switzerland may abandon their countries and regards those
longstanding policy of neutrality decades of independence doesn’t
mean they should lose it against countries as part of its sphere of
and seek NATO membership for influence. It intervenes regularly
protection. Remarkably, the deci- their will.
in those countries to change or
 CODESRIA Bulletin Online, No. 7, March 2022 Page 5

prop up regimes; for example, military forces’. If Putin’s blatant in varying degrees by Western
it currently has 3,500 troops in attempt to relegitimise the doctrine powers. Russia served instead
Mali under the guise of fighting of spheres of influence is allowed as an inspiration to forces across
Islamist militants. Even during the to stand, what will stop the former Africa that were interested in
Ebola crisis, Western assistance to European imperial powers from transformative social change, even
the three West African countries affirming their right to intervene though in Ethiopia, Mozambique
affected by the virus (Sierra Leone, regularly in Africa, and even and Angola, where attempts were
Liberia and Guinea) followed a recolonise a few countries, by made to implement the Soviet
spheres-of-influence logic, with arguing that they created those model of development, it turned
the UK heavily involved in Sierra countries in Berlin in the nineteenth out to be a disaster.
Leone, the US in Liberia and century?
France in Guinea (Abdullah and A beleaguered, authoritarian,
Rashid 2017). How a beleaguered Russia economically weak, rent-seeking
is likely to behave in Africa capitalistic Russia that has been
The doctrine of spheres of influence stripped of its aspirational ideology
has no place in the UN charter The second issue is how a will be different. The current
or international law. Indeed, the beleaguered Russia is likely to Russia will be highly transactional,
raison d’être of the UN (and its behave in Africa. If the West’s aggressive and opportunistic.
antecedent, the League of Nations) sanctions bite and Russia finds Russia’s recent attempts to
was to outlaw the quest for spheres itself excluded from much of the revive its flagging relations with
of influence in world politics. European social, economic and African countries are instructive.
The fundamental principles of the political space, it is likely to become Given its weak economy, it will
UN are the prohibition of force more paranoid and confrontational not be a strong competitor in
in settling disputes unless when and would aggressively seek productive investments, trade
sanctioned by the Security Council allies in non-Western regions, and aid compared to China, the
or for self defence; acceptance of including in Africa. Africa’s open, EU and the US. Russia’s exports
the sovereignty, territorial integrity fragmented, underdeveloped and to Africa amounted to a mere
and equality of all member nations; contested policy space makes it USD 13 billion in 2019, and its
and respect for freedom and a strong candidate for enhanced foreign direct investment was
human rights. These principles Russian intervention, big power estimated to be less than 1 per
seek to outlaw war in the conduct politics and the creation of spheres cent of Africa’s total FDI stock
of international relations. Despite of influence. Russia’s engagement in 2017 (Irwin-Hunt 2020). This
their violation in many instances, with Africa will be substantially is a pittance compared to China’s
they remain important for small different from Soviet engagement FDI stock of USD 110 billion in
states that do not have the resources with it during the Cold War. Africa (Yu 2021) and China’s
to confront strong nations. Indeed, During the Soviet era, Russia had USD 250 billion trade with Africa.
resistance to the doctrine of a progressive, anti-Western or Russian companies in Africa have
spheres of influence and military anti-imperialist policy: it stood in largely focused on the extractive
alliances informed the decision by solidarity with African countries sector—such as diamonds, nickel,
developing countries to form the in fighting European colonial manganese, oil and gas—as well
Non-Aligned Movement during domination and the obnoxious as nuclear energy, where they have
the Cold War. Most developing racist regime of apartheid South a comparative advantage. Even
countries still regard these Africa. It provided technical, though Russia is rich in mineral
principles as sacrosanct. It is not educational and financial aid as resources, it lost many of those
surprising that the overwhelming well as military assistance to resources to the new states after the
majority of developing countries many countries. And it did not dissolution of the Soviet Union.
(111) voted for the UN General associate itself with kleptocratic It is believed that importing raw
Assembly resolution that ‘deplores and bloody military regimes like materials from Africa is cheaper
in the strongest terms the aggression those of Idi Amin of Uganda, Jean- than extracting them from Russia’s
by the Russian Federation against Bédel Bokassa of Central African remote regions that hold the bulk
Ukraine’, and called on Russia Republic, Mobutu Sese Seko of of its resources (Arkhangelskaya
to ‘immediately, completely and Zaire or Samuel Doe of Liberia, and Shubin 2013).
unconditionally withdraw all of its which were nurtured or supported
 CODESRIA Bulletin Online, No. 7, March 2022 Page 6

Increased Russian involvement with most North African countries, of the continent in the 1990s. There
in Africa’s extractive sector, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana, Zambia has been a serious democratic
which has a history of corruption, and Rwanda to sign nuclear energy regression as incumbents in many
bad deals and illicit transfers, is deals, and has committed to provide countries change their constitutions
unlikely to be different from the 80 per cent of the funds to build to extend their rule, governing
West’s, and recently China’s, Egypt’s first nuclear power plant parties capture state institutions,
pillage of the continent’s resources for a whopping USD 25 billion harass opposition parties and
and impoverishment of its people. (Chimbelu 2019). However, Russia restrict the rights of citizens, and
In Honest Account 2017, Global has a poor record in large-scale elections are rigged to prevent
Justice Now (2017) reported that, infrastructure projects. Despite a transfer of power. By 2020,
in 2015, Africa as a whole was a Nigeria sinking more than USD 10 term limits had been modified or
net creditor to the rest of the world billion into the Ajaokuta iron and eliminated in 16 African countries
(largely Western countries) by steel project, the Russian company, (Siegle and Cook 2020), and in a
USD 41.4 billion. In other words, TyazhPromExport, contracted to list of controversial elections in the
more resources (USD 203 billion— build the plant in 1976 failed to world, 50 are African (Wikipediac).
through tax avoidance, debt produce any steel before the project Such setbacks in democratisation,
payments and resource extraction) was abandoned in 1994. The failure security challenges and failure to
were taken out of the continent than of the Ajaokuta steel project was a improve the lives of citizens have
flowed in (USD 161.6 billion— huge blow to Nigeria’s quest for encouraged the military to make
through loans, remittances and industrialisation. Nuclear reactors a comeback in African politics
aid). The Thabo Mbeki-led African are expensive, capital-intensive, (Ibrahim 2022). Military coups
Union-Economic Commission take years to build, and have high have occurred in Mali, Burkina
for Africa’s (2005) own report maintenance and safety costs. Faso, Guinea, Sudan and Chad in
estimated that USD 50 billion left African countries should be wary of the last two years. While Western
Africa as illicit financial flows incurring unsustainable debts and powers have been opportunistic in
every year. And War on Want permanent dependence on Russia advancing the democracy agenda
(2016) reported that about 100, to run and maintain reactors. It is in Africa (punishing countries
mostly British, companies listed not surprising that South Africa they dislike while giving a pass to
on the London Stock Exchange cancelled its agreement with Russia others until there is a breakdown
controlled more than USD 1 trillion for a second nuclear plant in 2017, of order), they have joined African
worth of resources in just five citing cost, after an environmental regional organisations, which have
commodities—oil, gold, diamonds, group successfully challenged failed to hold flawed democracies
coal and platinum—and a quarter the government in court. Surely, to account, to oppose the return of
of those companies are registered there must be cheaper and safer military rule on the continent.
in tax havens. Russia’s quest for green energy alternatives—such as
raw materials may spur enhanced solar, hydro and wind power—to Russia has stepped in to prop
greed and dirty tricks as it tries to nuclear reactors in solving Africa’s up besieged African dictators
compensate for lost opportunities electricity problem. by providing arms and military
in the West. This may aggravate protection. Its state-owned arms
Africa’s resource drain. A beleaguered Russia is also likely export agency, Rosoboronexport,
to be heavily involved in the internal is the largest arms exporter to
Russia is also likely to push politics of African countries. Such Africa, accounting for about 50 per
African countries to transition to intervention will be seen primarily cent of Africa’s arms imports. It is
nuclear energy, where it has a huge through the prism of its conflict the second largest arms exporter in
advantage, citing the continent’s with the West and its need to secure the world after the US. Indeed, the
large deficit in power generation. whatever resources and economic armament sector plays a big role in
About 600 million Africans are opportunities it can get as it tries Russia’s economy as it accounts for
estimated to be without access to to evade sanctions and diversify a large proportion of manufactured
electricity. Nuclear energy was its stuttering economy. Democratic exports (Chatham House 2017).
one of the agenda items in the norms and practices have not Algeria and Egypt are Russia’s
2019 Russia-Africa Summit in fared well in Africa after the wave biggest clients in Africa, but it
Sochi, attended by 42 African of democratisation that ended has recently expanded sales to a
leaders. Russia is in negotiations military and one-party rule in much number of sub-Saharan African
 CODESRIA Bulletin Online, No. 7, March 2022 Page 7

countries, including Nigeria, from the strategic perspective of struggles. Let us be clear: the
Tanzania, Cameroon, Angola countering Russian and Chinese belief that the US had become
and the Central African Republic penetration of the continent. It is the only superpower in town after
(Episkopos 2020). indeed astonishing that although the collapse of the Soviet Union
25 African countries supported the encouraged the West to cloak its
Russia uses its paramilitary or mer- General Assembly resolution that global strategic interests with the
cenary outfit, the Wagner Group, called on Russia to withdraw its ideals of democracy. We may be
which specialises in counterinsur- troops from Ukraine, 17 countries heading back to the stark days of
gency and counterterrorism train- abstained, eight did not vote and authoritarian politics of the pre-
ing as well as use of military hard- one voted against. Russia provides 1990s. It is difficult to believe that
ware, to challenge Western power security through its Wagner Group the West will firm up its already
in Africa and provide security to to many of the states that abstained questionable commitment to
rogue African leaders who want or stayed away, others are under democracy on the continent when
to remain in power and roll back sanctions themselves, and some faced with challenges from Russia
democratic change. In exchange, have bilateral military co-operation and China, which have no interest
Russia receives concessions to agreements with Russia. in democracy.
extract mineral resources, com-
mercial contracts or access to ports It is important to understand that Short term costs of
and airbases (Fasanotti 2022). The Western powers became interested the crisis
Wagner Group is active in the in the global democracy project
Central African Republic, where only after the collapse of the Soviet One final issue that should be
it has been accused of summary Union. For much of its history, the highlighted in discussing the
executions, torture and indiscrimi- West practised democracy at home invasion and how it is likely to
nate targeting of civilian facilities and realpolitik or pragmatism, impact Africa is the short-term
(Parachini and Bauer 2021), Su- as defined by its strategic and effects of the rise in oil, gas and
dan (especially during Omar Al- economic interests, overseas. This wheat prices. Russia is the world’s
Bashir’s regime), Mozambique, meant it could use force to achieve second largest exporter of oil after
Madagascar, Libya, Chad, Mali its objectives without following Saudi Arabia; it is also the fourth
and Burkina Faso. There has been UN rules or international law and largest gas exporter after the US,
a standoff between France and work with all kinds of despots and Qatar and Algeria. And both Russia
Mali, where French troops have corrupt leaders whose interests and Ukraine are major wheat
been unable to beat back Islamist were aligned with its own. Its cosy producers, with Russia ranked
terrorists despite committing 3,500 relations with the despotic regimes third in the world after China and
troops there since 2013. Faced with of the Gulf oil states underscore the India, and Ukraine seventh. Both
pressure from France, its European latter point. Western powers failed Russia and Ukraine account for 30
allies and African regional organi- to sanction or hold to account the per cent of global wheat exports,
sations to organise elections for a Saudi Arabian leadership after the and Ukraine is a major exporter
transition to civil rule, the military Saudi Arabian journalist, Jamal of maize and vegetable oil. South
leader, Assimi Goita, invited the Khashoggi, was butchered by Africa, for instance, imports about
Wagner Group to bolster his secu- Saudi officials at the Saudi embassy 30 per cent of its wheat from
rity and declared the arrogant and in Istanbul in 2018. Britain tried Russia and Ukraine, and Russia
pushy French ambassador persona to use democracy as a tool to is the second largest exporter of
non grata. stagger its exit from its colonies wheat to Nigeria. Supply chains
in the 1950s and part of the 1960s, in commodity production and
We are likely to see an aggravation of while devising new methods of marketing are often disrupted
this kind of big-power competition influence and control, such as during global crises. It is not
in Africa in which Russia and the Sterling Area system and the surprising that the prices of oil, gas,
willing African dictators try to beat Commonwealth—but this was wheat and other grains, which were
back pressure for democratisation only for a brief period. France did already rising in late 2021, have
and the protection of human rights. not bother with the idea of injecting skyrocketed since the invasion.
Western governments may also be democracy into its decolonisation
forced to give up all pretence of The effects of price rises depend
project, and Portugal was chased
promoting democracy in Africa and on whether a country is a net
out of its colonies through armed
may relate with countries primarily exporter or importer. For the big oil
 CODESRIA Bulletin Online, No. 7, March 2022 Page 8

producers, such as Nigeria, Angola, the UN. The isolation of Russia The invasion has done profound
Gabon, Libya, Algeria, Republic of through the West’s punitive damage to Russia’s relations with
Congo, Ghana, Equatorial Guinea sanctions may not only adversely the West, which will be difficult to
and Chad, the price increase in impact Africa through oil, wheat reverse as long as Putin and like-
oil is likely to be a boon as state and other grain price hikes, it may minded people around him are in
revenues will increase, especially also create a Fortress Russia that power. Africa should brace itself
if production is ramped up. Gas will pursue an aggressive policy for the challenging years ahead.
producers like Nigeria, Algeria, in Africa and other weak regions
Egypt, Libya, Angola and in order to gain allies, markets Yusuf Bangura was a Re-
Equatorial Guinea may also take and raw materials and diversify its search Coordinator at the United
advantage of the cancellation of external relations. This is likely to Nations Research Institute for
the Russo-German Nord Stream impact African politics negatively Social Development (UNRISD)
2 oil pipeline if they can invest as equally beleaguered African from 1990-2012. He was the
in the infrastructure for supplying politicians who do not want to give lead author of the UNRISD
gas across the Mediterranean into up power may sign up for Russian flagship report Combating Pov-
Europe (Iyora 2022). However, the protection. In this new dynamic, erty and Inequality: Structural
Change, Social Policy and Poli-
vast majority of African countries Western countries may be forced to
tics (UNRISD 2010) and Series
do not produce oil or, if they abandon their already questionable
Editor of Ethnic Inequalities
do, are net importers. For these support for Africa’s troubled and Governance of the Pub-
countries, the global oil price hike democracy project and engage lic Sector, and Developmental
has translated into a sharp rise in with African countries through the Pathways to Poverty Reduction
the prices of petrol and related prism of their rivalry with Russia. (both Series were published
products as well as increases in by Palgrave Macmillan and
transport fares. A similar problem The insistence of the West on UNRISD). In 2013-14, he taught
can be observed with grain. The maintaining NATO’s open-door international political economy
important wheat producers in Africa policy of admitting any country at Fourah Bay College, Univer-
are South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia, that seeks to join the alliance is sity of Sierra Leone.
Sudan, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, dumb. Putin should withdraw from
Zambia and Nigeria. However, all Ukraine and Ukraine should not be
these countries are net importers. admitted into NATO. The Cold War Note
While the rise in wheat prices arrangements that kept Finland,
1. Address by the President of
may improve the incomes of local which shares a border with Russia,
the Russian Federation, 24
farmers, it may hurt consumers as out of the military alliances of
February 2022.
bread, pasta, noodles, biscuits and NATO and the Warsaw Pact, while
cakes become expensive. allowing the country to thrive as a References
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