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2
Two Degrees
The Earth's temperature has been rising. To limit catastrophic outcomes, the international scientific
community has set a challenging goal of no more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) average
temperature rise. Economists agree we will save trillions of dollars by acting early. But how do we act
successfully? And what's the backup plan if we fall short?
Setting politics aside, Two Degrees reviews the current science and explains how we can set practical
steps to reduce the extent of warming and to adapt to the inevitable changes, all while improving the bottom
line, beautifying our communities, and improving human health. The book is a practical guide intended for a
broad audience of those who occupy and shape our built environment. The authors provide a clear framework
for communities, policy makers, planners, designers, developers, builders, and operators to help manage the
impacts and capture the opportunities of our changing climate.
Two Degrees is divided into three sections—Fundamentals, Mitigation, and Adaptation—covering a
diverse array of topics ranging from climate-positive communities and low-carbon buildings to the
psychology of choice and the cost of a low-carbon economy. After a foreword by Amory Lovins, more than
10 contributing authors share knowledge based on direct experience in all aspects of built environment
practice. This book clarifies the misconceptions, provides new and unique insights, and shows how a better
approach to the built environment can increase resilience and positively shape our future.
Alisdair McGregor is a Principal of Arup and Arup Fellow, based in San Francisco. Cole Roberts is an
Associate Principal of Arup, based in San Francisco. Fiona Cousins is a Principal of Arup, based in New
York.
3
Two Degrees
The Built Environment
and Our Changing Climate
4
First published 2013 by Routledge
Published 2015 by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
© 2013 selection and editorial material, Alisdair McGregor, Cole Roberts and Fiona Cousins; individual chapters, the contributors
The right of Alisdair McGregor, Cole Roberts and Fiona Cousins to be identified as authors of the editorial material, and of the individual
authors as authors of their contributions, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act
1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other
means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without
permission in writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation
without intent to infringe.
Every effort has been made to contact and acknowledge copyright owners, but the authors and publisher would be pleased to have any errors or
omissions brought to their attention so that corrections may be published at a later printing.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
5
Contents
Part 1
Fundamentals
Part 2
Mitigation Strategies
6
Alisdair McGregor
11 How We Choose: Evaluating Strategies and Trade-offs
Guideline Chapter
Cole Roberts
12 Can We Afford a Low-Carbon Economy?
Position Chapter
Simon Roberts
13 Corporate Leadership
Review Chapter
Alisdair McGregor
14 The Walmart Story
Guideline Chapter
Alisdair McGregor
Part 3
Adaptation Strategies
Glossary
Index
7
Figures and tables
FIGURES
1.1 Global average land and sea surface temperature from direct thermometer measurements since 1850
1.2 The Earth's radiation balance
1.3 The greenhouse effect
1.4 Variations in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 since the start of the industrial revolution
5.2 The stabilization triangle from Pacala and Socolow, 2004, adapted for 2012
6.1 The approach to net zero energy
6.2 Decision path for natural ventilation
6.3 The approach to net zero carbon
7.1 Site and source energy
7.2 Example building
7.3 Heat transfers through building envelope
7.4 The effect of glazing percentage on energy use
7.5 Comparison of energy use for residential, commercial, and garage space in the example building
7.6 Distribution of energy use by end use
7.7 Wind and buoyancy ventilation
8
7.8 Natural ventilation examples
7.9 Different air-based and water-based systems for providing heating and cooling
7.10 The effect of ice storage on peak electrical load
7.11 Energy recovery devices
7.12 Comparison of energy use with implementation of different mechanical system strategies
7.13 The effect of adding two 6-kilowatt turbines and covering the roofs of the building with photovoltaics, in terms of carbon
8.1 The productive value of suburban development is low despite the relative renewable energy potential
8.2 The integration pyramid—relationship of scale to cooperation, interdependency, and synergy
8.3 Carbon approach diagram for NZCCs and NPCCs
8.4 Lifetime carbon emissions of a sample building
8.5 Coincident heating and cooling energy recovery at Stanford University
8.6 The optimal scale of energy, water, and waste systems can vary due to many factors, not least of which is scale
8.7 Curitiba bus rapid transit ecodistrict
8.8 Good, better, and best development strategies plotted against increasing population
9.1 Of the eight required Princeton Stabilization Wedges, one is attributed to carbon emissions reductions associated with energy
savings of 25% in buildings
9.2 Average energy use intensity for U.S. commercial and residential buildings over time
9.3 The relative size of embodied carbon emissions and operational carbon emissions over time
9.4 Re-skinning projects such as this one provide the opportunity for replacement of both systems and envelope; renovations on this
scale can be expensive and complex
9.5 Typical life-cycle expenditures for a typical office
9.6 Carbon emissions abatement curve
9.7 Energy use comparison over two years of a project
9.8 UCSF Mount Zion Research Center
9.9 “Take the Stairs!” poster from NYC
9.10 Operable window details at (a) Selly Oak College, Birmingham, UK, and (b) Kroon Hall, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental
Studies
10.1 The Menil Collection, Houston, Texas; the ferro-cement blades are structure, daylight control, return air path, and architecture
10.2 The blades also form the bottom cord of the roof truss
10.3 Integration diagram plotting all the interactions that need to occur to integrate daylight and natural ventilation in a building
10.4 The natural ventilation system through the atria
10.5 Open work space with daylight
10.6 The Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Environment and Energy Building
10.7 A basement area in the core of the building shows the penetration of daylight
11.1 There really is another way
11.2 Maslow's hierarchy, adapted to the built environment
11.3 Items with greater integration impacts should be studied early in a project, while other topics of importance can be detailed later
11.4 The concept of “tunneling through the cost barrier” by eliminating costs systemically
11.5 Cost convergence over time through bottom-up cost checking
11.6 The 80/20 rule expanded to accommodate risk and value, relative toeffort
11.7 To prioritize design options for LCCA, a matrix like this can be used
11.8 Criteria-based mapping
11.9 Stanford Y2E2 building, whole-building LCCA
11.10 The Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return (MARR) is the same as the Return on Investment expectation
11.11 The best investment may not be the one with the quickest payback
12.1 The output volumes of GDP for the three larger sectors of an example economy
12.2 Inputs required by the three larger economic sectors
9
12.3 The expenditure form of GDP, showing final supply of agriculture, utilities, goods, construction, and services, divided between four
types of final demand
12.4 Intermediate or intrasector demand
12.5 Full system schematic showing flows of energy, jobs, goods, construction, and services
12.6 Historical data for the service sector
12.7 The approach of embodied carbon consists of mapping carbon sources onto final consumption and other uses
12.8 Components of final demand for historical data and extrapolated to 2020
14.1 Walmart's pathway to a sustainable business model
14.2 Distribution of annual energy consumption for a typical Walmart Supercenter
14.3 The solar wall at Aurora
14.4 Passive cooling and photovoltaic panels at McKinney Garden Center
14.5 The Duct Sox at Aurora are suspended just above the merchandise
14.6 Inside refrigerated displays, showing the LED lights
14.7 Clerestory photovoltaics at McKinney
14.8 Photovoltaics and the solar wall: renewable energy for both heating and electricity
14.9 CO2 equivalent emissions for the McKinney store, compared to a reference store
10
20.3 Falls Lake, North Carolina, during the 2007-8 drought
20.4 Internally displaced people in the aftermath of Pakistan's 2010 flooding
TABLES
1.1 Analogy between the Earth's climate and a room heated only by the Sun
1.2 The main GHGs in the atmosphere today, with approximate contributions to the elevation of the Earth's surface temperature
1.3 The six SRES marker emissions scenarios
2.1 Emission levels for combustion of natural gas, oil, and coal
2.2 Global warming potential for select GHGs
7.1 Net zero energy buildings consensus definitions
8.1 Net Zero Carbon Community definitions
9.1 Energy and cost savings compared to business as usual
13.1 GE's progress on greenhouse gas reduction
13.2 The spectrum of corporations' responses to climate change
15.1 Understanding disasters and their relationship to risks
19.1 Summary of the most important consequences of flooding in New York, Jakarta, and Rotterdam
19.2 Summary of adaptation measures to reduce impacts from coastal flooding due to climate change in New York, Jakarta, and
Rotterdam
11
Contributors
Alisdair McGregor has over thirty years of experience in the design of buildings for low-energy
performance. He has led design teams for a wide variety of Arup projects including hospitals, research labs,
corporate offices, museums, and civic facilities, and has a particular interest in the integration of sustainable
design principles. He is always looking to find creative solutions that do more with less. As a leader in the
field of sustainable design, he is very proactive in searching for environmentally sound solutions to help
design intelligent buildings that make as small a demand as possible on the environment and its resources. He
lectures frequently at conferences, events, and educational forums on the subject of sustainable design and
health care. Alisdair was elected as an Arup Fellow in 2004 in recognition of his contribution to the
sustainable design agenda within Arup and the construction industry. He was granted an Honorary Senior
Fellowship in 2005 by the Design Futures Council for his noteworthy leadership in the advancement of design
solutions. He was named one of Fast Company's Top 100 Creative People in Business in 2011 (at number 17).
He leads the Buildings Practice in Arup's San Francisco office.
Cole Roberts leads the energy and resource sustainability business in Arup's San Francisco office.
Specializing in design, planning, and consultation in the new and existing built environment, Cole has led
dozens of projects to successful LEED certification, including numerous platinum and NZE achievements.
Cole has been a keynote speaker at numerous conferences, is a published contributor to peer-reviewed
journals, and is a frequent guest lecturer at Stanford University and the University of California at Berkeley.
Fiona Cousins is a principal in the New York office of Arup. She leads the sustainability team, which focuses
on translating sustainability aspirations into tangible actions that make a real difference on projects. She also
works as a project leader for large, multidisciplinary buildings. Projects include Princeton's Frick Chemistry
Laboratory, the High Museum of Art expansion, and the U.S.’s New London Embassy.
Stephanie Glazer advances climate change mitigation measures through planning for sustainable
development. An accredited GHG lead verifier in voluntary and compliance markets, she has developed and
verified GHG emissions inventories in the telecommunications, power and water/wastewater utilities, waste
management, retail, and entertainment industries. Stephanie authored a hybrid production- and consumption-
based carbon accounting protocol for development projects and has provided technical advice to the Clinton
Climate Initiative's Climate Positive Development Program. She evaluates policy effectiveness and currently
participates on ICLEI's Technical Advisory Committee for the Community-Scale GHG Accounting and
Reporting Protocol.
Jake Hacker is a building physicist and climate scientist based in the Arup London office. His main area of
interest is the mathematical modeling of the performance of low-energy buildings. Jake has a long-standing
interest in the science of climate change. He led Arup's Drivers of Change research on climate change, and
before joining Arup in 2001 studied environmental fluid dynamics at Cambridge University and worked at the
UK government's climate prediction institute, the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Jake is
currently a Royal Academy of Engineering Visiting Professor and Senior Teaching Fellow at University
College London.
Amy Leitch is a sustainability consultant with Arup, specializing in low-carbon design and climate change
12
resilience building. She has a background in sustainable building design, business strategy, land-use policy,
stakeholder engagement, and climate science. Amy earned her master's degree from the Duke University
Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, with a concentration in environmental law and
environmental economics enhanced by program evaluation. Her clients have included the U.S. government,
UN-HABITAT, the Bolivian National Park Service, and the C40.
Afaan Naqvi is a mechanical and energy engineer in the Arup San Francisco office, with integrated skills in
energy, water, waste, and sustainability. He consults on new and existing building performance and resource
efficiency, renewable energy generation, and carbon footprinting. Afaan also has a keen interest in district
energy flow and conservation, and has presented on the topic at various conferences.
Simon Roberts is associate director and energy specialist in the Foresight, Innovation and Incubator Group of
Arup. Dr. Roberts is a physicist with an industrial background in manufacturing, and with a long-term
involvement in sustainability and energy-related matters. His current research focus is on the 4see modeling
framework, which combines socioeconomic–energy aspects of a country in order to formulate physically
consistent scenarios twenty years or more into the future.
Mark Watts is a director based in London, in Arup's energy consulting team. Focused on cities and
sustainability, Mark leads Arup's partnership with the C40 group of the world's largest cities. Prior to joining
Arup as a director in November 2008, Mark was a climate change and sustainable transport adviser to the
Mayor of London for eight years. Mark led the development of London's groundbreaking Climate Change
Action Plan and the associated program of projects to reduce London's carbon emissions by 60 percent by
2025. He was also responsible for leading London's draft climate change adaptation strategy and, on behalf of
the Mayor, for establishing the C40 Large Cities Climate Group.
13
Foreword by Amory B. Lovins
I wrote my first professional papers on climate change in 1968 and on nuclear proliferation in 1973. It was
clear then to any thoughtful observer that these were energy's two existential threats to civilization, and that
we must take the utmost care to avoid both—and certainly not to trade off one for the other. Remarkably
misguided policies have now given us both. Yet now as in the 1960s we can still greatly mitigate both threats
by choosing the best buys first, rather than the worst. To be sure, many designers of efficient buildings and
communities now seek climate-adaptive designs too, either as a hedge against slow adoption of known
solutions for mitigating climate change or because some climate change is now unavoidable. But often similar
design approaches, as this book describes, can achieve both mitigation and adaptation goals together, at or
below normal construction cost.
The best of the best buys is radical energy efficiency, most of all in buildings and communities. Globally,
40 percent of fossil carbon emissions are due to buildings and 24 percent due to transport between buildings;
the rest are from industry. Most of this energy is wasted, and technologies for using it more productively keep
improving faster than they're installed, so the unbought “efficiency resource” keeps getting bigger and
cheaper. U.S. buildings, for example, could save $1.4 trillion in net present value by wringing three to four
times more work from their energy. The savings would be worth four times their cost, earning an average 33
percent internal rate of return (not counting nonenergy benefits that are often much larger). Industry, too,
could double its energy productivity, with a 21 percent internal rate of return.
These empirically grounded, peer-reviewed findings rely most of all—especially in our built environment
—on a quiet revolution called “integrated design” that this valuable book helps to explicate (in Chapter 10 and
throughout). Optimizing whole systems for multiple benefits, rather than isolated components for single
benefits, can often make very large energy savings cost less than small or no savings, turning diminishing
returns into expanding returns. This is true not only of energy but of all resources, and not just in buildings but
across whole urban systems and their resource sheds—transportation, water, waste, materials, and carbon.
For example, consider water, which is intimately linked to energy in many ways and in both directions.
Stanford University's Y2E2 building saves six times as much water indirectly through its energy efficiency as
it saves directly through fixtures: synergy beats efficiency. (The building's direct energy savings, increased by
higher occupancy and longer hours because everyone wanted to be there, paid back in just two years, a 35
percent annual return on investment.) Similarly, in Pittsburgh's Nine Mile Run, a costly combined sewer–
overflow problem (one of more than a trillion dollars’ worth across the United States) could be resolved at
roughly zero or negative cost through smart landscape architecture and real estate models.
In South Central Los Angeles in 1998, TreePeople experimentally retrofitted a 1920s bungalow so
effectively that a thousand-year cloudburst—71 centimeters (28 inches) of rain in 20 minutes, all from fire
hoses—stayed entirely on-site. Replicated citywide, this approach could cut water imports 50 to 60 percent,
help control flooding, reduce toxic runoff into the sea, improve air and water quality, save energy, cut by 30
percent the flow of yard wastes to landfills (creating instead water-retaining, soil-building mulches and
composts), beautify neighborhoods, and create perhaps 50,000 jobs for urban watershed managers. The city's
two biggest water agencies, one annually spending a billion dollars bringing water in and the other a half
billion dollars to take it away, hadn't previously talked to each other.
The water-and-landscape story is even bigger. Professor Malin Falkenmark in Stockholm notes that the
unused “green water” falling on the landscape is so much larger than the “blue water” captured in pipes that
retaining and more productively using even a small fraction of the former can dwarf the major efficiency
gains available from the latter. Better management of green water could lift billions out of water poverty and
make food production far more resilient to climate change.
Or consider the ubiquitous asphalt car parks outside big-box stores and shopping malls. Their dark color
absorbs solar heat, baking the store, customers, and their cars in hot air and radiant heat, and reducing paving
14
life. It also absorbs light at night, boosting security-driven night-lighting standards until customers driving off
the lot are so dazzled they'll have accidents anyway. In contrast, light-colored paving keeps the store,
customers, and cars comfortably cool; makes the paving last almost indefinitely; and by increasing optical
reflectance, can cut lighting energy to just 1 percent of official norms with superior visibility and aesthetics.
And while repaving the parking area one might as well consider photovoltaic shades and, for that matter,
pervious surfaces—which in turn can shrink or eliminate costly stormwater-management infrastructure.
However many resources it encompasses, integrated design of whole systems often starts with energy.
That's not the only good handle to grasp: as Chapter 8 of this book describes (and as Chapter 14 of Natural
Capitalism described in 1999), Curitiba, Brazil, achieved astonishing results through integrative design that
was first established with water, food, wastes, and other factors as priorities, then expanded, optimized, and
maximized over forty years.
The needed questions are often arrestingly simple. For example, how much thermal insulation should you
install in your house in a cold climate? The textbooks say to add only as much as will repay its extra cost from
saved fuel over the years. This is methodologically incorrect, because it omits the avoidable capital cost of the
heating equipment. My own house—at an elevation of 2,200 meters (7,100 feet) in the Rocky Mountains in
Western Colorado, where temperatures used to go down to −44°C (−47°F)—was optimized for both operating
and capital costs together (doubling its insulation) and is now simultaneously ripening its thirty-seventh
through forty-first passive-solar banana crops with no furnace. When completed in 1983–4, this building used
1 percent the normal space- and water-heating energy, about 10 percent the normal household electricity, and
half the water, yet repaid its 1 percent extra construction cost in 10 months. Eliminating the heating equipment
saved about $1,100 more in construction cost than it added for superinsulation, superwindows, airtightness,
and ventilation heat recovery.
That building helped inspire 32,000 European “passive buildings” that have and need no heating
equipment, yet provide superior comfort with comparable or sometimes slightly lower construction cost. In
the 1980s and 1990s, the same approach eliminated space-cooling equipment up to 46°C (115°F) in dry
climates—not an upper limit—and cut a Bangkok home's air-conditioning energy by 90 percent, in both cases
with better comfort and normal or lower construction cost. In all these cases, today's technologies are even
better and cheaper. My house has retrofitted them and is measuring their performance—complicated by the
annoying tendency of the monitoring equipment to use more energy than the lights and appliances it's
measuring.
Similar techniques apply to big buildings too. A few years ago, RMI co-led with Johnson Controls the
conceptual and schematic design of an integrated advanced energy retrofit as part of the $0.5 billion
renovation of the Empire State Building. Normal checklists of incremental measures were initially proposed
to save less than 10 percent of the energy, yet integrated savings achieved over 40 percent. Remanufacturing
the 6,514 clear double-glazed windows on-site into superwindows that passed light but blocked heat—cutting
winter heat losses by at least two-thirds and summer heat gains by half—combined with lighting and plug-
load improvements to cut the peak cooling load by one-third. This allowed the retrofit team to renovate and
shrink the old chilled-water equipment rather than replacing and expanding it, saving $17 million in capital
cost. This cut the total retrofit cost to $13 million and the payback to three years, with stunning economic
advantage to the owner, Tony Malkin, who is spreading this approach to the whole industry.
The late Greg Franta, FAIA and I designed a similarly surprising retrofit for a curtain wall office tower
near Chicago in 1994, saving three-fourths of its energy with slightly less investment than its scheduled
renovation, which saved nothing. Instructively, the design, though approved by the owner, was not executed.
A leasing broker, short of cash and incentivized on deal flow, scuttled the retrofit to avoid delaying
commissions. The property then couldn't be re-leased because of poor comfort and high gross occupancy cost,
so it was sold off at a distressed price. This illustrates why successful integrative retrofit requires meticulous
attention to detail—each of the two dozen parties in the commercial real estate value chain can be a
showstopper, though each is a business opportunity—and mindfulness of each party's remarkably perverse
incentives. But with trillions of dollars of net present value on the table, there's plenty of reason to pay
attention. And today's techniques are even better—permitting, for example, an expected energy saving around
70 percent in the General Services Administration's flagship retrofit, with RMI, of the Byron Rogers Federal
Building in Denver, all within federal investment guidelines. That could make it the most efficient office
building in the United States despite its poor orientation, 1964 vintage, and requirements for full asbestos
abatement, federal blast-resistance retrofit, and historic preservation.
Everywhere, innovation is oozing if not gushing up through the cracks. Walmart's purchasing power drove
innovation that cut the cost of radiant floor-slab cooling by 69 percent (see Chapter 14). Nearly 5,000 actions
by the mayors of the world's 40 largest cities are uplifting citizens, saving money, and cutting emissions (see
15
Chapter 8). Stanford University expects to save over a fourth of its climate-harming emissions and 18 percent
of its water just by integrating its buildings’ heating and cooling needs in a campus-wide system (see Chapter
8). Consistently, integrative thinking trumps reductionism.
In short, this book reviews the fundamentals and opens a cornucopia of creative ideas for doing more and
better with far less for longer, with lower cost and risk. To be sure, the cornucopia is the manual model—you
must actually go turn the crank—but these gifted practitioners point the way to astonishing opportunities.
A concluding word about the organization of this book: Chapter 1 is an enjoyable review of climate
science. It is also an update on what has happened since the last IPCC report in 2007. It brings bad news. It
may depress you, and it's hard to depress people into action. So if you want to review climate science
fundamentals and understand how and why our species has a serious problem caused by experimenting with
the planet's climate, read it. But if you already know there's a climate problem and just want to get on with
solving it—or if you want to do the same things anyway (whether you believe the climate science or not) for
other reasons, such as making money or improving national security—then you can skip straight to Chapter 2.
In that and the rest of this excellent book, you can learn to create abundance by design, through practical
transformation, in a spirit of applied hope.
Amory B. Lovins
Chairman and Chief Scientist
Rocky Mountain Institute
Old Snowmass, Colorado
March 18, 2012
AUTHORS’ NOTE: We invited Amory to author the foreword due to our deep respect for his and Rocky
Mountain Institute's contribution to a sustainable built environment. Founded thirty years ago, RMI continues
to be an independent, entrepreneurial, nonprofit think-and-do tank that drives the efficient and restorative use
of resources. Its practices in the built environment, transport, industry, and electricity have led to such game-
changing publications as Natural Capitalism (www.natcap.org), Reinventing Fire (www.reinventingfire.com),
www.retrofitdepot.org, and hundreds of papers free at www.rmi.org, all complemented by the emerging
initiative “10×E: Factor Ten Engineering.”
For those keen on further reading, we recommend RMI's Reinventing Fire (2011), which shows how a
2050 U.S. economy 2.6 times today's could need no oil, no coal, no nuclear energy, and one-third less natural
gas than now; emit 82 to 86 percent less fossil carbon; cost $5 trillion less (in net present value, counting no
externalities); need no new inventions or acts of congress; and be led by business for profit.
16
Preface
I decided not to tell lies in verse. Not to feign any emotion that I did not feel; not to pretend to believe
in optimism or pessimism, or unreversible progress; not to say anything because it was popular, or
generally accepted, or fashionable in intellectual circles, unless I myself believed it; and not to believe
easily.
Robinson Jeffers (1887–1962), poet
There are many books on theory. This is not one. This book is about getting to a better place, stepping aside
from the politics of climate change, and stepping into the practice of creating buildings, infrastructure, and
communities that will last us into a human-stewarded future. All of the authors are practicing professionals
from diverse backgrounds who have worked on some of the most well-known (and some not so well-known)
high-performance projects in the world. They've seen some success and some more valuable failure. And their
experience is blessed by the critical comments and prior work of their peer community of “doers”—designers,
planners, policy makers, business professionals, appointed and elected officials, builders, farmers, and
everyday citizens.
If I were a reader, what would capture my attention, impress and intrigue me? What are my expectations,
and what would I like to discover in this book? I will not say opportunity or optimism. These words are too
easy to throw around and often difficult to back up. Oversold and under-realized, one might say. A critique of
either likely labels the critic a recalcitrant, or worse, a pessimist. I prefer to start at the origin of opportunity—
a “coming toward a port”—and the suggestion of safe harbor. This image evokes both where we are and
where we need to be. That is, dark seas with a storm brewing—and calm waters ahead, if we can reach them.
However, this book is less about the storm and the safe harbor than the sails, oars, and spirit that separate the
two. To better set the scene, I pull two words from the following pages, the word synergy and the word
compete. The two define this book, because they tell us how to reach our goal, not just how nice it will be
when we arrive. Their meaning is closer than one would expect: synergy, “to work together,” and compete, “to
strive together.”
Our companies, countries, and people certainly do strive, but do they realize they strive together? That
they push each other toward a higher shared goal?
Historically, the solution to shortage and growth has been efficiency. Less use per unit output. More
comfort per unit input. But what if the whole idea of efficiency is incomplete? Like a fundamental law of
physics, it makes sense, but only until you look outside the car and realize that it is driving toward a cliff, very
efficiently.
Among the authors there is over 110 years of experience. The reviewers triple that. But more important is
the range in years of experience, gender, origin, education, and age. A single voice often focuses on
efficiency, but diversity seeks synergy and fosters competition. Although any of us could have written a book
with a similar title (and others have), I don't believe any of us could have written this book alone.
Within its chapters, the book reviews many topics in the built environment. It lays out a methodical path
for lowering carbon emissions toward zero and moving toward climate-positive communities, while
simultaneously making money from the investments and creating healthier places for our families. It describes
a proven process for building resilient communities that are not hobbled by extreme weather and the domino
effect of accumulated risks. It showcases examples of success and failure among cities, home builders, major
institutions, and large corporations.
The questions this book answers are the questions many of us ask. Can we afford a low-carbon economy?
How do the trillions of square feet of buildings and billions of people really change—not just how should they
change? How can carbon neutrality be both possible and profitable? Why do we make the decisions we do,
and can we work with our irrational tendencies and default decisions? If we do need to adapt, what will
17
adaptation really feel like?
In writing this book, we aimed to answer questions that each of us had in our heart. We also wanted to
share our learned insights so that the ideas can go farther and wider than each of us can physically. That is, we
wanted to both gain knowledge and share it.
Alisdair's windsurfing brings him often to the beach. There on the doorstep of the Pacific, he tells me he
can see the ocean of his children's old age: nearly 2 meters (6.5 feet) higher and over his head by recently
revised estimates, the sand beneath his toes long since washed away and the nearby buildings either flooded or
barricaded behind seawalls. Fiona's hometowns of New York City and London are just as threatened by rising
seas. When I visit my family's farms and ranches in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wyoming, I wonder how
such distant effects will reach them. Will farms fail when reefs do? It's hard not to worry in general, and not to
be confused by debate. The impacts are also easy to ignore on a sunny day among friends and family. Would
it be as easy to ignore an impending asteroid strike, an “impact event” that squeezes all the change of a
century into just a few years?
When Alisdair first outlined this book nearly four years ago, the content was much as you'll read it today.
It is a play in three parts—Fundamentals, Mitigation, and Adaptation—with an emergent voice from its many
authors. Chapters are (1) reviews of fundamental science, (2) position chapters that carry the weight of their
authors’ opinions, or (3) guideline chapters that are intended to convert easily to the professional and personal
practice of the reader. References and a glossary are provided for further reading and corroboration.
The bulk of the insight and inspiration—arguably the credit for this book as a whole—stems from the
projects, people, collaborators, and competitors of Arup. Although the authors work or have worked for Arup,
this is not a book by a firm. The time has been largely our own, as will be the responsibility for error and
omission.
We hope you will open the pages of this book and find it valuable now and in the years ahead—in terms
of creativity, methodology, and how easy and how hard practice is compared to theory. We also hope that you
will be inspired to continue the conversation among friends, family, and colleagues with passion and shared
experience. Only through synergy and competition, working together and striving together, will we arrive
safely in our harbor.
18
Acknowledgments
This book is formed from the hard work of tens of thousands of individuals around the world, each striving to
improve understanding of climate change, form effective policy, and shape better buildings, cities, and
infrastructure. In addition to the emergent voice from all these people, the authors would like to acknowledge
the insights and inspiration provided by the following people and organizations:
From the Arup community Engin Ayaz, Stephen Belcher, David Brown, Stephen Cook, Adam Courtney,
Jo da Silva, Raj Daswani, Steve Done, Martín Fernández de Córdova, Laura Frost, Karin Giefer, Stephanie
Glazer, Jake Hacker, Chris Jofeh, Sam Kernaghan, Amit Khanna, Amy Leitch, Chris Luebkeman, Afaan
Naqvi, Jordan O'Brien, Tim Pattinson, John Roberts, Simon Roberts, Davina Rooney, Christopher Rush,
Jeffrey Schwane, Pauline Shirley, Robert Stava, Mike Sweeney, Cameron Talbot-Stern, Vinh Tran, Polly
Turton, John Turzynski, Chris Twinn, Mark Watts, and Frances Yang.
And most of all, Jesse Vernon, for her editing skill and commitment to quality.
From the design community Clark Brockman (Sera Architects), Jeb Brugmann (ICLEI), Margaret Castillo
(Helpern Architects), Judy Corbett (LGC), Kaitlyn DiGangi (consultant), Rosamond Fletcher (AIA NY),
Robert Goodwin (Perkins & Will), Dave Johnson and William McDonough (WMP), Amory Lovins (RMI),
Huck Rorick (Groundwork Institute), Bry Sarte (Sherwood), Severn Suzuki (ECO), Sim Van der Ryn (former
CA State Architect), and Donna Zimmerman.
From the policy community Sam Adams (former mayor of Portland); Keith Bergthold (City of Fresno);
Cal Broomhead, Gail Brownell, and Rueben Schwartz (SF Environment); Center for Climate and Energy
Solutions; the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition; Ken Livingston (former Mayor of London);
Heidi Nutters (BCDC); the Rockefeller Foundation; and the team at the World Bank Climate Change
program.
From the research and climate science community Nancy Carlisle, Shanti Pless, and Otto Van Geet
(NREL); Jared Diamond (UCLA); B.J. Fogg (Stanford University); the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change; Geoff Jenkins (UK Hadley Centre); Ron Prinn (MIT); Chris Sabine (NOAA); and Professor Keith
Shine (Reading University).
Our friends and families We are grateful for the insights, ad hoc reviews, and encouragement of
Mackenzie Bergstrom, Olly Gotel, Kash Heitkamp, Jenny McGregor, Raymond Quinn, Hayes Slade, and
Serena Unger.
19
PART 1
Fundamentals
20
Random documents with unrelated
content Scribd suggests to you:
Sed si de aureis titulum accipimus, primae agressionis
pretium 433 fr.; sequentium vero stuprationum, 11 fr. 42 c.,
quod verisimilius de puella venusta et tenella.
...Audiat ille
Testarum crepitus cum verbis, nudum olido stans
Fornice mancipium quibus abstinet...
Juv. XI, 169 sqq.
lupatria: Scortum.
A μαίνεσθαι, furere.
Hinc:
mammae inclinatae:
mammae jacentes:
mancipium:
...Inguina saltem
Parce fututrici sollicitare manu.
Levibus in pueris plus haec, quam mentula, peccat;
Et faciunt digiti, praecipitantque virum.
Mart. XI, XXIII, 3 sq.
"Pullaria."
Plaut. Frag. ex locis amissis, vers. 56.
"Scelerare manus."
Plaut. Frag. ex locis amissis, vers. 40.
maritus: De pecoribus.
Massyli leo fama jugi, pecorisque maritus
Lanigeri, mirum qua coiere fide.
Mart. IX, LXXI, 1 sq.
Quisque coetus continetur conjugali foedere.
Ecce, jam super genistas explicant tauri latus;
Subter umbras cum maritis ecce balantum greges.
Pervigil. Veneris, 71 sqq.
maritus: De arboribus.
mascarpio: Masturbator.
mascula: Tribas.
...Exigite ut sit
Et pater ipsius coetus, ne turpia ludant,
Ne faciant vicibus. Non est leve, tot puerorum
Observare manus, oculosque in fine trementes.
Juv. VII, 238 sqq.
"Et sunt nati filii gemini duo, Ita forma simili pueri, uti
mater sua Non internosse posset, quae mammam
dabat, Neque adeo mater ipsa, quae illos pepererat."
Plaut. Menaechm. Prolog. vers. 18 sqq.
Hinc Horatius:
Vide Martial. V, XXXVI; Ovid. Fast. III, 229; Plaut. Mil., III,
I, etc.
menstrua foeminarum:
Inde togatae:
meritorium: Lupanar.
Hinc:
moechimonium: Adulterium.
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