ICICI Securities Sees 13% UPSIDE in Tata Consultancy Services Caught
ICICI Securities Sees 13% UPSIDE in Tata Consultancy Services Caught
CMP: INR 3,247 Target Price: INR 3,680 (INR 3,880) 13% ICICI Securities Limited is the author and distributor of this report
TCS’ Q4FY25 performance was a miss with regards to muted growth and margin. TCV was the silver lining, though down
7.5% YoY. Macro uncertainty has hit enterprise spending and the upbeat management commentary (in Q3FY25) has shifted
to a more cautious tone now. We believe Q4 earnings might be grimmer for rest of the IT peers given that TCS has lesser %
of revenue as discretionary vs peers. Despite management commentary that FY26 revenue growth will be better than FY25,
we see low FY26 discretionary demand, weighing down growth. We believe TCS is better placed vs peers to weather the
current macro storm, being the industry bellwether with best-in-class RoE and execution. We cut FY26-27E EPS slightly,
reiterate ADD with Mar’26E TP of INR 3,680 on attractive valuations (currently trading close to 5-year average - 2SD).
Highlights
FY25- a muted year led by regional markets
TCS’ FY25 USD revenue growth was 3.8% vs 4.1% in FY24. The growth was led by
India, up 62.6% YoY CC, followed by 11.2% YoY growth in MEA. BFSI- up 0.7% YoY
and energy and utilities- up 5.1% YoY. Regional markets led the growth with 37.2%
YoY uptick. Communication & media was the laggard with 9.5% YoY revenue
contraction. EBIT margin at 24.3% was down 30bps YoY, with 200bps worth of impact
from wage hikes. Net margin was 19%. Full year TCV was USD 39.4bn, down 7.9%
YoY. FY25 saw net headcount addition of 6,433. Free cashflow stood at INR 464bn, up
4.9% YoY.
• Key demand areas are: S/4 HANA migration, implementation of gen AI,
automation of testing in SDLC, legacy modernisation, data modernisation, building
AI/ ML model, customer experience, digital transformation, AI adoption, (agentic AI
is the next frontier in AI, going beyond chatbots use cases), hyper personalisation.
Vertical colour
• Healthcare growth revived with QoQ print of -1% (vs. -4.5% in Q3FY25), as client-
specific issues subsided, marking the best performance in last four quarters.
Healthcare customers are moving cautiously with reassessment of deal timeline.
Manufacturing showed a subdued print of -1% (vs. -4% in Q3FY25), mostly on
continued weakness in auto and aerospace subsegments. Auto OEMs are seeing
weak demand as EV-fication slows down and inventory builds up. BFSI bounced
back with 1.3% sequential growth, in line with management’s upbeat commentary
on the vertical and ACN’s recent performance (Link); however, there was some
softness in insurance. Retail was weak at -1% QoQ. Technology vertical performed
well with 0.3% QoQ USD growth- one of the better performing verticals.
India | Institutional Equity Research 2
Tata Consultancy Services | Results update | 11 April 2025
Geography colour
• Europe with 1% QoQ USD growth, performed well on the back of large deal wins
from Q3FY25. Americas showed muted performance at -0.2% QoQ growth. Middle
East and Africa grew well.
Miscellaneous
• Book-to-bill ratio improved at 1.6x vs 1.4x in Q3FY25.
• Ignio saw 30 new deal wins and 11 go-lives, led by AI demand. Ignio has code
accelerator to reduce coding efforts of TCS, increasing coding efficiency by 150%.
BaNCs had four new wins and four go-lives.
• USD 1/5/20 mn+ client buckets grew 23/1/4 QoQ. USD 100mn bucket remained
constant while USD 10mn/50mn bucket saw four customers decline, each.
Key risks:
Sharp cutbacks in discretionary spending cuts, delayed backfilling of BSNL deal
Quarterly performance
(INR bn) Q4FY25 Q3FY25 QoQ Q4FY24 YoY
CC growth -0.8% 0.0% 1.1%
Sales (USD m) 7,465 7,539 -1.0% 7,363 1.4%
USD/INR 86.4 84.4 2.3% 83.2 3.9%
Sales (INR bn) 645 640 0.8% 612 5.3%
EBIT 156 157 -0.4% 159 -2.0%
EBIT Margin 24.2% 24.5% -28 bps 26.0% -179 bps
Reported PAT 122 124 -1.3% 124 -1.6%
EPS 33.8 34.2 -1.3% 34.0 -0.8%
Source: I-Sec research, Company data
Margin headwinds: 1) -90bps from higher employee costs; 2)- 20bps from other expenses 3) -20bps from
higher subcontracting costs
Cost line items Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 Q4FY23 Q1FY24 Q2FY24 Q3FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25
COGS
Employee costs 44.89% 43.51% 43.27% 44.29% 45.97% 45.85% 44.48% 45.12% 45.97% 45.55% 44.37% 45.27%
Fees to External Consultants 9.67% 9.63% 9.18% 8.23% 7.39% 6.83% 6.14% 4.57% 4.03% 4.37% 4.40% 4.51%
Travel 0.81% 0.86% 0.78% 0.77% 0.83% 0.85% 0.80% 0.94% 0.98% 0.95% 0.86% 0.87%
Cost of equipment and
software licenses 0.41% 0.73% 1.10% 1.05% 0.85% 0.77% 1.94% 2.55% 3.44% 5.03% 5.50% 4.26%
Other costs 5.80% 5.78% 5.61% 5.51% 5.44% 5.61% 5.85% 5.68% 5.74% 5.92% 6.06% 6.31%
SG&A costs
Employee costs 12.59% 12.61% 12.49% 12.65% 13.22% 12.99% 12.83% 12.27% 12.19% 11.50% 11.83% 11.74%
Fees to External Consultants 0.35% 0.33% 0.23% 0.33% 0.33% 0.36% 0.41% 0.29% 0.23% 0.28% 0.25% 0.26%
Travel 0.25% 0.32% 0.47% 0.47% 0.51% 0.30% 0.33% 0.39% 0.36% 0.32% 0.28% 0.41%
Other costs 2.14% 2.23% 2.33% 2.21% 2.30% 2.18% 2.20% 2.20% 2.41% 2.03% 1.98% 2.17%
Source: I-Sec research, Company data
10.2
11.2
13.2
10.2
12.2
2 -30%
5.7
6.4
8.9
6.9
8.6
6.8
9.2
8.1
7.6
7.6
8.2
8.1
7.8
8.1
8.3
8.6
10
6
0 -40%
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
Q2FY25
Q3FY25
Q4FY25
Q1FY20
Q3FY21
Growth led by Europe and emerging markets (India, LAT-Am and MEA)
YoY CC Revenue Growth Q2FY23 Q3FY23 Q4FY23 Q1FY24 Q2FY24 Q3FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25
North America 17.6% 15.4% 9.6% 4.6% 0.1% -3.0% -2.3% -1.1% -2.1% -2.3% -1.9%
Latin America 19.0% 14.6% 15.1% 13.5% 13.1% 13.2% 9.8% 6.3% 6.8% 7.0% 4.3%
UK 14.8% 15.4% 17.0% 16.1% 10.7% 8.1% 6.2% 6.0% 4.6% 4.1% 1.2%
Continental Europe 14.1% 9.7% 8.4% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% -2.0% 0.9% 1.8% -1.5% 1.4%
India 7.0% 9.1% 13.4% 14.0% 3.9% 23.4% 37.9% 61.8% 95.2% 70.2% 33.0%
Asia Pacific 16.7% 9.5% 7.5% 4.7% 4.1% 3.9% 5.2% 7.6% 7.5% 5.8% 6.4%
MEA 8.2% 8.6% 7.8% 15.2% 15.9% 16.0% 10.7% 8.5% 7.9% 15.0% 13.2%
Total 15.4% 13.5% 10.7% 7.0% 2.8% 1.7% 2.2% 4.4% 5.5% 4.5% 2.5%
Source: I-Sec research, Company data
Weak QoQ show by regional markets with lack of backfill for BSNL deal
ramp-down
Healthcare
Tech Services
average
Life Sc &
& Others
Q2FY18
Q4FY18
Q2FY19
Q4FY19
Q2FY20
Q4FY20
Q2FY21
Q2FY22
Q4FY22
Q2FY23
Q4FY23
Q2FY24
Q4FY24
Q2FY25
Q4FY25
Q4FY21
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Apr-24
Apr-25
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-23
Oct-16
Oct-20
Oct-24
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Apr-24
Apr-25
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-23
Oct-24
Source: I-Sec research, Company data
Oct-23
Oct-24
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-24
Apr-25
Apr-22
Apr-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
Jan-23
Jan-25
Financial Summary
Profit & Loss Cashflow statement
(INR mn, year ending March) (INR mn, year ending March)
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