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pathways and new carbon feedstocks

Cite this: Energy Environ. Sci.,
for the global chemical industry†
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2023, 16, 2879

Gabriel Lopez, *a Dominik Keiner,a Mahdi Fasihi, a

Tuomas Koiranenb and
Christian Breyer a

Following current trends, the global chemical industry is set to become the largest consumer of fossil
fuels. Among energy intensive industries, the chemical industry is one of the most challenging to
defossilise due to the abundance of cheap fossil fuel-feedstocks and it is currently responsible for
roughly 3% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Unlike other energy-intensive industries, the
chemical industry cannot be made fully sustainable directly with renewable electricity and green
electricity-based hydrogen (e-hydrogen). Therefore, new green carbon feedstocks must be developed
to defossilise the production of large volume organic chemicals. The most promising green carbon
feedstocks are electricity-based methanol (e-methanol) and biomass-based methanol (bio-methanol),
which can be used directly or as a feedstock for olefin and aromatic production. Increased recycling of
plastics will reduce the amount of primary feedstock that will be required for chemical production.
To investigate the energy and feedstock requirements for a global defossilisation of chemical
production, scenarios are developed that reach net-zero emissions by 2040, 2050, and 2060 compared
to business-as-usual conditions to 2100. High and low biomass feedstock variations are included to
investigate the potential of biomass feedstocks in the future chemical industry, which are limited due to
Received 13th February 2023, strict sustainability criteria. The results suggest that the chemical industry could become the largest
Accepted 17th May 2023 e-hydrogen consumer, with a demand ranging from 16 100 to 23 100 TWhH2,LHV in 2050. High shares of
DOI: 10.1039/d3ee00478c electricity-based chemicals (e-chemicals) were found to provide the lowest annualised costs, suggesting
that an e-chemical transition pathway may be the most economically competitive pathway to defossilise
rsc.li/ees the global chemical industry.

Broader context
While the defossilisation of energy systems is well understood, the decoupling of fossil fuels from the chemical industry has often been overlooked, due to the
abundance of cheap fossil feedstocks, which are used to produce plastics, fertilisers, pesticides, fibres, and personal care and consumer products, among other
ubiquitous chemicals. The key challenge with the defossilisation of the chemical industry is the requirement of carbon-based feedstocks, which cannot be
directly substituted with renewable electricity. Chemical demand is also expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades, and, without major disruption to
feedstocks, could become the largest driver in oil consumption. Renewable electricity- and biomass-based feedstocks have been suggested to substitute fossil
feedstocks; however, there is a knowledge gap in the energy system requirements to completely replace fossil feedstocks. This research presents scenarios for
the complete defossilisation of global chemical feedstocks from 2020 to 2100 using a high geographical resolution of 145 regions. The results of this study
found that the complete defossilisation of chemical production applying high levels of power-to-chemicals, in tandem with increased plastic recycling, will lead
to the lowest annualised costs by 2050.

1. Introduction
a
School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, 1.1. Current situation and technologies
Finland. E-mail: [email protected]
b
Chemical products have become ubiquitous in modern society
School of Engineering Science, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34,
53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
and are integral to the functioning of modern society. The
† Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: https://doi.org/ demand for chemical products, especially plastics, has grown
10.1039/d3ee00478c faster than that for any other bulk material.1 From 1950 to

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2015, resins and fibres used in plastic production have grown at However, many chemical processes have reached close to their
a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4%, which has highest feedstock efficiency; however, processes may be improved
been estimated to be around 2.5 times higher than the CAGR of to reduce CO2 emissions.1,8 Today, primary chemical production
the global gross domestic product.2 Despite being the largest has emission factors of 2.4 tCO2/tNH3, 2.3 tCO2/tMeOH, and
industrial energy consumer of both oil and gas, the chemical 1.0 tCO2/tHVC,1 related to both the fossil feedstocks required
industry was only the third largest industrial emitter at and process heat and electricity.
920 MtCO2 in 2019 resulting from primary chemical production The conventional production of ammonia uses the Haber–
alone, behind the cement, and iron and steel industries.3 This Bosch process with fossil methane, coal, or oil as the feedstock,
is largely due to the high shares of non-energy use of fossil as shown in Fig. 1, and fossil methane has become the
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fuels as feedstocks where high shares of the fossil carbon are dominant feedstock globally, as it is responsible for 75% of
embedded in the chemicals produced. Following current global ammonia feedstocks, followed by coal at 22% and oil at
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trends, demand for chemical products in the form of fertilisers, 3%.8 With fossil feedstocks, this process is responsible for
pesticides, plastics, and fibres, among others, is expected to around 1.8% of global CO2 emissions.9 Ammonia production
increase significantly in the coming decades,1,2,4,5 and esti- has grown exponentially since the development of the Haber–
mates suggest that, without intervention, non-combusted feed- Bosch process in 1909, and its global production reached
stocks will become the largest source of fossil fuel demand 195 MtNH3 in 2018.10 In addition to its use as a fertiliser,
growth. The use of chemical products will additionally be ammonia has been discussed as a form of seasonal storage to
essential to produce technologies that can eliminate emissions offset variable renewable energy (RE) and as a fuel for the
in the energy sector.6 Therefore, to meet the targets of the Paris transport sector, especially in marine applications.11–17 From
Agreement7 and develop a carbon-neutral and sustainable both a feedstock perspective and an emission perspective, the
chemical industry, a complete defossilisation of carbon feed- fossil methane-to-ammonia route has the best performance,
stocks must occur. with a feedstock requirement of 28 GJCH4,LHV/tNH313,18 and an
The foundations of the modern organic chemical industry emission factor of 1.6 tCO2/tNH3.18 However, as highlighted by
are built on seven key building blocks or primary chemicals: Smith et al.,11 only marginal efficiency improvements are
ammonia (NH3), methanol (CH3OH or MeOH), ethylene (C2H4), available for conventional ammonia production.
propylene (C3H6), benzene (C6H6), toluene (C7H8), and mixed Methanol production, as shown in Fig. 2, similarly converts
xylenes (C8H10). Ethylene and propylene are often discussed as syngas, a mixture of H2, CO, and CO2, from a fossil fuel
light olefins, and benzene, toluene, and mixed xylenes are feedstock to methanol19 using a Cu/ZnO/Al2O3 catalyst.20 Simi-
referred to as BTX aromatics, and together are referred to as lar to the ammonia production process, steam methane refor-
high value chemicals (HVCs). Due to the abundance of low-cost mation is used for fossil methane and naphtha feedstocks,
fossil feedstocks, discussions of emission reductions in the whereas partial oxidation is used for heavy oils and solid fossil
chemical industry have largely focused on process emissions.1 fuels. Fossil methane is the most used feedstock for methanol

Fig. 1 Conventional production route for ammonia production from natural gas and nitrogen from an air separation unit (ASU). Coal and oil can similarly
be used as a fossil feedstock, using coal gasification and partial oxidation for syngas production, respectively. Before nitrogen and hydrogen are input to
the Haber–Bosch reactor, an additional methanation step is required to convert carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide to methane that accumulates as
inert in the NH3 synthesis stage, minimising the poisoning of the Haber–Bosch catalyst. The condenser after the Haber–Bosch reactor removes H2 and
N2 impurities from the outlet stream. Adapted from Smith et al.11

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Fig. 2 Conventional production process for methanol synthesis from natural gas over a CuO/ZnO/Al2O3 catalyst. Coal and oil can similarly be used as
fossil feedstocks for coal gasification and partial oxidation for syngas production, respectively. Adapted from Adnan and Kibria.20

synthesis, corresponding to 57% of global methanol feedstocks,8 propylene is also produced in large quantities via refinery
and has a feedstock demand of 33.9 GJCH4,LHV/tMeOH.21 Coal is operations through deep catalytic cracking (DCC) as well as via
the next most used feedstock at 40% of global methanol feed- propane dehydrogenation, a form of on-purpose propylene (OPP).24
stocks consuming 46.9 GJCH4,LHV/tMeOH,21 largely due to the The global production of ethylene and propylene reached 160 and
high shares of methanol production and consumption in 107 Mt in 2018, respectively.10
China,19 and oil composes only 3% of global methanol feedstocks, For heavier steam cracker feedstocks and DCC, as shown in
for a total production of 95 MtMeOH in 2018.10 Additionally, CO2 Fig. 4, BTX aromatics are produced in a pyrolysis gas (pygas)
emissions for the fossil-based methanol synthesis range from component.
0.5 tCO2eq/tMeOH for steam reforming to 1.5 tCO2eq/tMeOH for However, the majority of the BTX aromatics are sourced via
partial oxidation.22 the catalytic reforming of naphtha (CRR) in refineries,1,8 shown
HVCs are very often co-produced in several chemical pro- in Fig. 5. Additionally, toluene can be converted to benzene or
cesses or produced as by-products from refineries. The most mixed xylenes through toluene hydrodealkylation (THD) and
widely used process for the co-production of ethylene, propylene, disproportionation (TDP), which has been used to reduce the
and BTX aromatics is the steam cracker, and is shown in Fig. 3. overproduction of toluene relative to demand.10 In 2018, the
While naphtha is used as the feedstock, there are a wide range of global production of BTX aromatics reached 43, 22, and 54 Mt
feedstocks that are used for steam crackers, which largely varies for benzene, toluene, and mixed xylenes (ortho/meta/para),
on what low-cost fossil feedstock is readily available regionally. In respectively.10
Europe and Eurasia, heavier oil feedstocks including naphtha Of the global chemical flows, roughly 61% of downstream
and gas oil are used due to their availability compared to lighter chemicals considered in this study are used for plastic produc-
natural gas liquid feedstocks such as ethane and propane tion, and comprise roughly 24% of all global chemical flows.8
being preferred in North America and the Middle East and Therefore, increasing plastic recycling has become a target of
North Africa (MENA) regions.10 The composition of the feed- many industrialised economies that will reduce the primary
stock has a significant effect on the shares of products produced, chemical demand, particularly for HVCs.1 Global plastic collec-
and ethylene and propylene yields from various feedstocks tion rates for plastics have been increasing steadily since 1990,
and operating conditions can range from 24 to 55% and 1.5 to increasing from 2% to 15% in 2019.28 However, there is
18%, respectively.23 Along with propylene from steam cracking, significant disparity between plastic recycling rates by regions,

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Fig. 3 Conventional steam cracking process to produce ethylene, pro-

pylene, and BTX aromatics from naphtha. The pyrolysis furnace converts
the feedstock, here, naphtha, into cracking gas, which is then sent to a
series of separation units to separate the various hydrocarbon fractions
and waste water. Additional feedstocks for the steam cracking process
include ethane, propane, butane, and gas oil. Adapted from Xiang et al.25

Fig. 4 Conventional naphtha catalytic reforming (CRR) process. The main

products from this process are the BTX aromatics, and the by-products
ranging from 8.2% in non-OECD other Africa to 25.2% in OECD include pentane, C6+ alkane, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and
Europe for 2019, as shown in Fig. 6.28 C9+ chemicals, with an optional toluene conversion route to increase
Additionally, the actual recycling rate of collected plastics is benzene and xylene yields. Adapted from Jiang et al.26
still rather low globally, ranging from 50% in the United States
to 71% in non-OECD Latin America.28 Although plastic recy-
cling rates have grown rather significantly, global secondary emission pathways for Europe by 2050 for plastics and ammo-
plastic production has not seen the same levels of growth, as nia, finding for plastics that circular economy, recycling, and
secondary plastic production has only grown from 1.5% of total bioplastic production are key technologies to reach net-zero
plastics in 1990 to 6.3% in 2019, as shown in Fig. 7. emissions without CCS, though they do not consider e-plastic
Unlike other energy-intensive materials, plastics tend to routes with e-methanol as the platform chemical. For ammonia,
have short lifetimes, Table 1 shows the main uses of plastics, new processes, i.e., electricity-based ammonia (e-ammonia), are
shares of plastics by use, and mean product lifetimes according essential for emissions reduction without CCS, as circular
to Geyer et al.,2 with many packaging plastics returning to waste economy options are limited. Schneider and Saurat31 similarly
streams in less than a year of manufacture.2 However, plastic developed a zero-emission pathway for the European plastic
waste mismanagement continues to be a global challenge, as sector by 2050, finding significant roles of plastic recycling,
most plastic waste is either discarded or incinerated. Without MTO, MTA, and e-naphtha steam cracking to reach net-zero
action, this issue may compound itself as Geyer et al.2 project emissions. On a global scale, Kätelhön et al.32 investigated
that by 2050 humanity will have produced over 25 000 million the potential for electricity-based methanol (e-methanol) and
metric tons of plastic waste. electricity-based hydrogen (e-hydrogen) to substitute fossil
feedstocks by 2030, emphasising the role of defossilisation of
1.2. Perspectives of the chemical industry transition global electricity supply to achieve net-zero emissions in the
Research regarding a transition of the chemical industry to CCU-based chemical industry. The global net-zero emission
net-zero emissions has been increasingly gaining attention. chemical industry scenario developed by Saygin and Gielen4
Chung et al.29 reviewed decarbonisation options for the still has fossil feedstocks around 25 000 PJ (6940 TWh) in 2050,
chemical industry, finding CCU and biomass as significant largely for the production of HVCs, and therefore requires
crosscutting options for the defossilisation of feedstocks as a 0.94 GtCO2/a of fossil CCS and 0.55 GtCO2/a of bioenergy with
means to couple the chemical industry with the larger energy- CCS (BECCS). Cost-optimal pathways for the global chemical
industry system. Material Economics30 develops net-zero industry without CCS were developed by Zibunas et al.,33

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at both regional and global scales, there are no studies, to the

knowledge of the authors, providing long-term projections of
chemical production to the end of the century considering high
levels of sustainability. Net-zero transition scenarios for the global
chemical industry by 2050 have been performed at a global level,33
and considering fossil CO2 supply from the power sector and the
steel industry at a major region level;34 however, none have been
performed at a high regional resolution providing techno-
economic implications for the chemical industry transition in
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the context of a larger energy-industry defossilisation. Even the

leading Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) scenarios, such as
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that developed by Luderer et al.,35 consider the continued usage of

fossil fuels in the chemical industry despite reaching 97.8% RE
share in electricity generation. The novelty of this research is
therefore in developing the first global chemical and feedstock
projections at a high geographical resolution to 2100 for business-
as-usual and net-zero emission scenarios considering high and
low biomass variations. Furthermore, this research is the first of
its kind to evaluate the annualised and levelised costs of the
global chemical industry based on green e-ammonia and green
e-methanol by applying the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)
Fig. 5 Deep catalytic cracking of refinery oil for propylene production according to Bogdanov et al.36 and greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-
from wax oil using a zeolite (ZSM-5) catalyst. In addition to the propylene sion costs according to the 2021 IEA World Energy Outlook.37 This
and BTX products, C4 chemicals, heavy oil, and methane are also pro-
research on a high geographical resolution thus demonstrates
duced. Adapted from Zhao et al.24 and Gholami et al.27
specific regional pathways for sustainable feedstocks to enter the
global chemical production landscape.
This study is organised as follows: Section 2 describes the
finding that the total energy consumption of the chemical methodology and data, Section 3 presents the results, Section 4
industry ranges from 134 to 160 EJ (37 200–44 400 TWh), and provides a discussion of the results, limitations of this study,
that all primary energies for the global chemical industry and recommendations for future work, and Section 5 offers
can be provided from biomass, ranging from 0 to 65%, and conclusions.
electricity, ranging from 15 to 75% of all resource consumption.
Huo et al.34 studied the net-zero transition of the global
chemical industry, finding a global CO2 demand of 2.2–3.1 2. Methods and data
GtCO2, and a potential supply of 5.2–13.9 GtCO2 from the
power, cement, steel, and pulp and paper sectors; however, This section presents the data and methodology applied for
this still assumes some fossil usage in power plants and developing scenarios for a defossilised chemical industry.
steelmaking, which may not be available in a full defossilisa- Section 2.1 describes the data and methods applied for devel-
tion of the energy-industry system. oping the chemical production model for the base year of 2020.
While there have been several studies demonstrating the Section 2.2 explains how future chemical demands were
feasibility of the chemical industry to achieve net-zero emissions determined and distributed among 145 LUT regions. Section 2.3

Fig. 6 Plastic collection and recycling rates by OECD regions in 2019.28

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Fig. 7 Global plastic production by type from 1990 to 2019 (left axis) and shares of secondary plastics of total plastic production (right axis).28

Table 1 Main uses of plastics, shares of plastics by use, and mean product a basis for determining available plastics for recycling and
lifetimes according to Geyer et al.2 waste incineration. The amount of plastic chemicals was then
Share of Mean use determined according to eqn (2.2). Regional plastic collection
Plastic use type total lifetime [years] and recycling rates were applied according to the OECD data
Packaging 45% 0.5 and are shown by OECD regions for each NZE scenario in
Building and construction 19% 35 Tables S4–S7 (ESI†), with Table S3 (ESI†) showing the historical
Other 13% 5 CAGR of recycling collection rates by major regions from 1990
Consumer and institutional products 12% 3
Transportation 7% 13
to 2019. Similarly, regional plastic incineration growth rates are
Electrical/electronic 4% 8 shown in Table S8 (ESI†), and regional growth rates by scenarios
Industrial machinery 1% 20 are shown in Tables S9–S12 (ESI†). Collection-to-recycling rates
were varied linearly from their regional values in 2019 to reach
100% by the net-zero year for the NZE scenarios, and by the CAGR
then presents the scenarios that were considered in this research from 2000 to 2019 under business-as-usual conditions.
to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions in the chemical industry. X
Cplastic ¼ Cfinal;i Splastic;i (2.2)
2.1. Global chemical production landscape i

Globally, around 20 chemicals are responsible for 75% of the where Cplastic is the total chemical-to-plastic demand, Cfinal,i is the
chemical industry’s GHG emissions.5 As a starting point, a total demand of the final chemical i, and Splastic,i is the share of
bottom-up model was developed based on production data for the final chemical i to plastic production.
the most downstream chemicals modelled according to These downstream chemicals, along with chlorine, were
Horton,10 which were then distributed regionally according to then allocated categories based on their chemical structure
Keiner et al.38 The bottom-up chemical model developed con- and end-use, primarily to identify which chemicals are used as
siders the composition of each primary chemical based on its plastics. The mass balances of the ecoinvent 3.0 database39
downstream derivatives according to eqn (2.1), using 2018 were used to determine the primary chemical demand of the
production quantities and shares from Horton.10 Shares of downstream chemicals modelled, which then require primary
downstream chemical demands for each primary chemical energy feedstocks. Additionally, secondary plastic production
are shown in Table S1 (ESI†). was modelled as 6.3% of the total thermoplastics considered in
  this study. Considering that feedstocks for HVC production
P
DC;i RC;i varies significantly by region, feedstocks for HVC production,
PC ¼ i (2.1) primarily those for steam crackers, were distributed by major
SD;C
global region for Europe, Eurasia, Middle East and North
where PC is the total primary chemical demand, DC,i is the Africa (MENA), sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the Southeast Asian
downstream chemical demand for chemical i, RC,i is the Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Northeast Asia,
primary chemical demand to produce one ton of chemical i, Southeast Asia, North America, and South America on a 145
and SD,C is the total share of downstream chemicals modelled LUT region-basis as used in Bogdanov et al.36
relative to the total primary chemical demand.10 The regional distribution of feedstocks for HVC production
The final chemical demands were separated by their end use is shown in Table 2 for ethylene and Table 3 for propylene.
of plastics, non-plastics, and pesticides. Plastics as a share of Steam crackers additionally have a pygas component that con-
each final chemical were determined according to shares tains BTX aromatics, among other aromatic chemicals, and BTX
reported by Levi and Cullen and are shown in Table S2 (ESI†). shares in pygas were applied according to Levi and Cullen,8 and
The shares of plastics for each final chemical were then used as are shown in Table S13 (ESI†). While significant quantities of

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Table 2 Feedstock shares for steam crackers by major region according provided by the IEA40 and DNV41 to verify the accuracy of the
to Horton.10 Steam crackers are used as the primary technology for model with the collected data. According to the 2019 IEA energy
ethylene production, with propylene and BTX aromatic co-products. The
statistics,40 the most recent year of data available, the total non-
distribution of co-products per tonne of ethylene is shown in Table S13
(ESI) energy use was reported at 38.7 PJ, or 10 750 TWhth, a 2.6%
difference with the calculated number. When compared to 2020
Ethane Propane Butane Naphtha Gas oil Othera number published in DNV’s 2022 energy transition outlook41 of
Europe 11% 8% 8% 66% 7% 0% 40 EJ, or 11 111 TWhth, this study’s model results find a -0.7%
Eurasia 8% 5% 5% 67% 15% 0% difference, thus verifying the model functionality for the start-
MENA 63% 24% 5% 8% 0% 0%
ing year of 2020. Regionally, China has the largest share of the
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Sub-Saharan Africa 25% 25% 0% 0% 0% 50%

SAARC 6% 3% 2% 77% 10% 3% fossil feedstock demand, as well as Saudi Arabia, Korea, and
Northeast Asia 6% 3% 2% 77% 10% 3% Belgium and the Netherlands (BNL), and several regions in the
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Southeast Asia 6% 3% 2% 77% 10% 3%

North America 44% 19% 13% 19% 3% 1% United States. The regional fossil feedstock demand is shown
South America 26% 10% 0% 58% 6% 0% in Fig. 10.
a
The other feedstock assumed to be naphtha.
2.2. Future alternatives
For many energy sectors, such as power, heat, and transport,
Table 3 Feedstock shares for propylene production by major region the discussion on reaching carbon neutrality is often centred
according to Horton.10 Shares in this table were primarily used to deter- around the concept of ‘decarbonisation’; however, for the
mine the shares of technology applied to the remaining propylene chemical industry, ‘decarbonisation’ is impossible due to the
demand after considering propylene co-products from steam crackers.
requirement of carbon feedstocks to produce all large volume
The distribution of co-products per tonne of propylene is shown in
Table S14 (ESI) organic chemicals.42 Therefore, the development of a net-zero
emissions or even negative emissions chemical industry must
Steam Deep catalytic Propane centre around the concept of ‘defossilisation’, which requires
crackers cracking dehydrogenation
the introduction of new sustainable carbon feedstocks
Europe 26% 25% 7% through sustainable biomass and carbon capture and utilisa-
Eurasia 26% 25% 7%
MENA 30% 26% 44% tion (CCU).4,32,43–45 The most discussed sustainable feedstock
Sub-Saharan Africa 30% 26% 44% for the global chemical industry has been e-methanol and
SAARC 44% 25% 31% biomass-based methanol (bio-methanol),46 which can either
Northeast Asia 44% 25% 31%
Southeast Asia 44% 25% 31% be used directly or as a feedstock for olefins and aromatics
North America 33% 54% 13% through the methanol-to-olefins (MTO) and methanol-to-
South America 42% 58% 0% aromatics (MTA) processes. Indeed, methanol has been dis-
cussed as a substitute for oil-based feedstocks and fuels as early
as the 1980s, though fossil methane was suggested as the major
propylene and BTX aromatics are supplied by steam crackers, feedstock.47 Both methanol and ammonia can be synthesised
especially those with heavier feedstocks, this supply is not enough through green e-hydrogen and biomass, and e-methanol and
to meet global demand. Therefore, refinery oil and propane bio-methanol as the central feedstocks would lead to a metha-
are used as feedstocks for propylene production through deep nol economy48 basis for the current petrochemical industry.
catalytic cracking and propane dehydrogenation, respectively. In this study, electrolysis based organic syntheses49–53 are not
Additionally, catalytic reforming of naphtha is used to satisfy included in this study due to the early stage technology devel-
the remaining BTX aromatic demand, with p-xylene being the opment and low technology readiness levels (TRL 3–5).
chemical most supplied from refinery naphtha.8 The result is that 2.2.1. Power-to-ammonia. Research regarding sustainable
there is often a mismatch between supply and demand of BTX ammonia has largely fallen into three categories focusing on
aromatics, especially toluene, though this can be somewhat blue hydrogen, green e-hydrogen, and electrochemical ammo-
mitigated by converting toluene to benzene and xylenes through nia production. The use of blue ammonia for ammonia pro-
toluene disproportionation and toluene hydrodealkylation.8,10 duction would use carbon capture and storage (CCS) to reduce
For ammonia and methanol production, regional feedstock data the emissions of conventional ammonia production, though
were not available; therefore, global feedstock shares for these this process would not capture all related CO2 emissions and
chemicals were applied according to Levi and Cullen,8 as shown life-cycle emission factors may be further limited to 60–85%.1,54
in Fig. 8. Green e-ammonia, conversely, proposes the use of green
The global flow of these chemicals along with chlorine, as e-hydrogen for the Haber–Bosch synthesis unit, and a tempera-
shown in Fig. 9, traces the fossil feedstocks to primary and then ture of 480 1C at a pressure of 150 bar is applied in this research.13
downstream chemicals that are then used for fertilisers, pesti- The use of water electrolysis adds a new water demand of 1.6 tH2O/
cides, plastics, resins, and fibres. The results of the bottom-up tNH3 for the water electrolyser that is not present in conventional
model for 2020 find that the production of primary chemicals ammonia production, which may cause an additional water stress
required a total energy and feedstock input of 11 029 TWhth. in regions experiencing water scarcity.11 The green e-ammonia
The total fossil feedstock was then compared to the 2020 results process, as shown in Fig. 11, consists of two primary subsystems,

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Fig. 8 Ammonia (left) and methanol (right) production by feedstock in 2013 according to Levi and Cullen.8

Fig. 9 Global flow from feedstocks to chemicals in 2020. Downstream chemicals are categorised according to their use for chemicals-to-plastics or by
their chemical structure for non-plastic chemicals. Abbreviations: steam cracker (SC), deep catalytic cracking (DCC), catalytic reforming (CR), on-
purpose propylene (OPP), toluene hydrodealkylation (TH), toluene disproportionation (TD), polyethylene (PE), vinyl chloride (VC), ethylene oxide (EO),
ethylene glycol (EG), styrene (St), polypropylene (PP), acrylonitrile (Acr), propylene oxide (PO), acetone (Ace), cumene (Cu), and terephthalic acid (TA).

which are the gas subsystem supplying nitrogen and hydrogen, inlet temperature of 210 1C and 76 bar.19 The entire process has a
and the ammonia synthesis system consisting of the Haber–Bosch water requirement of around 27 tH2O/tMeOH, for water electrolysis;
reactor.17 Of the green e-ammonia options, the power-to-ammonia however, this requirement is lower than conventional methanol
is the most commercially available, at a TRL of 8–9.11 While there production, which requires 90 tH2O/tMeOH.19 While the overall
is research investigating direct electrochemical synthesis of ammo- synthesis route is similar, e-methanol synthesis from carbon dioxide
nia from water and nitrogen under low temperature and low and e-hydrogen is at a lower TRL compared to the conventional
pressure conditions, such ammonia synthesis systems are not route, currently around TRL 7.20 Power-to-methanol has been widely
yet commercially available.16 researched as an alternative to conventional production, due to the
2.2.2. Power-to-methanol. Compared to conventional metha- wide range of applications for methanol to replace fossil fuels in
nol production, which synthesises methanol from carbon monoxide marine and aviation transportation as well as chemical production
and hydrogen, a power-to-methanol route could convert carbon as envisioned by Olah et al.48 and Bertau et al.46 and methanol
dioxide and hydrogen to methanol over a Cu/ZnO/Al2O3 catalyst, derivative syntheses envisioned by Banivaheb et al.56 Furthermore,
as shown in Fig. 12. The chosen e-methanol synthesis reactor has an pilot power-to-methanol plants from Carbon Recycling International

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Fig. 10 Total fossil feedstocks for chemicals by region in 2020. Chemical demands that were met with the fossil feedstock supply based on numbers
from Horton.10 The regional structure adopted as used by Bogdanov et al.36

Fig. 11 Power-to-ammonia process diagram with nitrogen supplied from an ASU and hydrogen supplied from electrolysis. Adapted from Smith et al.11
and Morgan55

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Fig. 12 Power-to-methanol process diagram with e-hydrogen supplied by water electrolysis and CO2 being supplied by direct air capture (DAC) or
industrial point sources. In this study, CO2 from DAC is assumed. The catalyst for the methanol synthesis reactor is CuO/ZnO/Al2O3. Adapted from Adnan
and Kibria20 and Bos et al.64

in Iceland have operated since 2012, and additional pilot plants 2.2.3. Power-to-methanol-to-olefins. Although there are
are being developed by Power to Methanol Antwerp57 and pathways to directly synthesise ammonia and methanol from
Project Air,58 which plan to have operational plants by 2022 green e-hydrogen, such routes are not readily available for
and 2026, respectively. The first commercial power-to-methanol olefins or aromatics, as the single stage conversion of hydrogen
plant using atmospheric CO2, with a capacity of 110 ktMeOH, and CO2 to olefins is still at a TRL of 3–4.43 Therefore, the
started production in October 2022 in Anyang, Henan Province, conversion of methanol has been proposed to substitute oil
China. It uses the emissions-to-liquids technology developed by feedstocks. The MTO process, however, has largely been inves-
Carbon Recycling International.59 tigated to use coal-based methanol as an input, largely in China
In this research, a carbon dioxide demand of 1.46 tCO2/ due to the high availability of coal.24,72 Due to its commercia-
tMeOH is considered to be supplied by a direct air capture lisation in China, MTO already has a high TRL of 8–9.43 MTO,
(DAC) unit;19,60,61 however, carbon dioxide can also be supplied as shown in Fig. 13, operates at around 500 1C and 2.5 bar over
from process emissions from the cement mills, pulp and paper a SAPO-34 type catalyst, with a carbon selectivity ranging from
mills, or waste incinerators burning biomass or municipal 78 to 82%.24 The methanol input for MTO assumed in this
solid waste.62 Techno-economic assessments of the power-to- study is 16.34 MWhMeOH,LHV/tOlefin.6 Multiple MTO processes
methanol route have been investigated for a range of carbon have been developed, and different ratios of ethylene and
inputs including CO2 from a biogas treatment plant and a fossil propylene can be achieved depending on the catalyst used.73
ammonia plant,63 DAC,60,64 carbon recycling,65,66 and other In addition to the ethylene and propylene products, there is a
point sources.67–69 Research has also investigated sourcing heat by-product of 0.688 MWhth/tOlefin at 500 1C and a water
carbon dioxide from lignite power plants;70 however, this would by-product of 1.685 tH2O/tOlefin.74
not be a fully sustainable solution given the use of coal as an 2.2.4. Power-to-methanol-to-aromatics. Compared to the
input for electricity generation and leakage emissions, as point MTO route, MTA is much less developed, with a TRL of 7.43
source carbon capture from coal power plants is typically MTA has also largely been researched in the context of coal-
designed around a 90% CO2 efficiency.71 Additionally, the fossil based methanol.26,76,77 The MTA process, as shown in Fig. 14,
carbon embedded in the methanol could return to air or water converts methanol to aromatics over a zeolite catalyst, HZSM-5,
as CO2 or other GHG emissions at the end of its life cycle. at 370–540 1C and 20–25 bar.43 Of the final products, BTX

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Fig. 13 Power-to-methanol-to-olefins process diagram. Methanol synthesis occurs over a CuOZnO/Al2O3 catalyst and the MTO reactor uses the
SAPO-34 catalyst. Adapted from Jiang et al.25 and Dimian and Baldea.75

Fig. 14 Power-to-methanol-to-aromatic process diagram. Methanol synthesis occurs over a CuOZnO/Al2O3 catalyst, and methanol aromatisation
occurs over a HZSM-5 catalyst. Adapted from Jiang et al.26

aromatics compose around 16% of the total yield by weight; reduction of the fossil feedstock to syngas. Therefore, CCS has
therefore, a significant methanol input of 34.46 MWhMeOH,LHV been proposed to remove the high amount of process CO2
is required.76 The most significant by-products of the MTA emissions, and, for ammonia production, some carbon capture
process are liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is produced at is already utilised for downstream urea production.1,78 Con-
a rate of 1.24 tLPG/tBTX, and water, which is produced at a rate versely, due to the conversion of fossil hydrocarbons to HVCs,
of 3.224 tH2O/tBTX.76 Additionally, the MTA process is highly most emissions are a result of process energy, as feedstock
exothermic, with a heat output of 2.838 MWhth/tBTX.74 losses, and thus feedstock emissions, tend only to be 0.5% of
2.2.5. Fossil feedstocks with carbon capture and storage the feedstock input.22 For these HVC production routes, CCS
and biomass feedstocks. Considering the composition of emis- would largely be unnecessary if the process energy inputs were
sions, the IEA reports that the highest share of emissions from decarbonised. Gabrielli et al.42 highlighted the potential for
primary chemical production comes from ammonia, at 49%, CCS to reduce emissions in the chemical industry; however,
followed by HVCs, at 27%, and methanol, at 24%.3 For metha- due to the point source capture efficiency of 90%, additional
nol and ammonia, a high share of emissions comes from the DACCS is required to capture the remaining 10% of CO2 that is

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not captured in the CCS stage. Furthermore, while fossil carbon of Keiner et al.38 from 2020 to 2100 in 10 years intervals and
may not be emitted to the atmosphere during the chemical distributed among the 145 LUT regions. Using the shares of
production stage, it may be emitted at the end-of-life stage chemicals-to-plastics as established in Section 2.1, historical
through waste incineration or degradation in landfills. Addi- plastic production data from the OECD,28 and plastic lifetime
tionally, fossil chemicals with CCS may lead to a fossil lock-in distributions from Geyer et al.2 (Table 1), the available plastic
for the chemical industry, and lead to stranded fossil assets as waste in a given year was determined. Plastics were then
fossil reserves become increasingly nonviable42 as well as separated by collection for recycling and waste incineration.
increased life-cycle emissions from the carbon content of The collection-to-recycling rate was linearly varied from today’s
fossil-based chemicals. Therefore, to avoid potential fossil levels by major region to 100% by the net-zero emission year.
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lock-in and related non-CO2 air pollutants,79 fossil-CCS options Mechanical recycling was assumed to substitute primary plastic
are excluded from this analysis. chemicals with secondary plastics at a carbon efficiency of
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Biochemical routes have also been widely suggested to 98% and electricity consumption of 0.234 MWhel/tplastic,out.95
substitute fossil feedstocks for ammonia,80–82 methanol,65,83–85 Fossil chemicals-to-plastics that are incinerated result in posi-
olefins,24,86–88 and aromatics,89–91 as part of a larger bio- tive GHG emissions, corresponding to the carbon content of
economy.92 While biochemical routes are available, increased chemicals used for plastic production.39
scrutiny must be placed on the sourcing of the biomass feed- The total plastic production and plastics by application are
stocks. Today, bioethylene is produced in Brazil via bioethanol shown in Fig. 15. For all non-plastic chemicals, only primary
dehydration using sugarcane as the biomass feedstock for production methods were applied, due to the lack of relevant
ethanol production.93 However, as biomass resources become recycling options. Additionally, the carbon content of non-
increasingly limited, strict sustainability requirements must be plastic fossil chemicals is included in the GHG emissions
placed on biomass resource use, as biomass competes both with reporting in their respective production years as CO2eq emis-
food and feed supply and bioenergy in other energy sectors such sions. In the net-zero emissions chemical industry scenarios
as biofuels for transport. Globally, the sustainable bioenergy defined in Section 2.5, the maximum plastic recycling rates
limit has been estimated to be 100 EJ/a94 (27 800 TWh). Sustain- were set to 60% in the net-zero emission year, evolving
able biomass use effectively eliminates first-generation biomass from today’s regional recycling rates, as shown in Fig. 6. While
from being used for chemical production, and, therefore, only plastic recycling rates could in theory be higher, especially with
biomass residues and wastes, e.g., lignocellulosic biomass, chemical, or back-to-monomer, recycling, this recycling target
should be considered for biochemical production. is in line with similar research, e.g., Saygin and Gielen,4 who
establish a 66% plastic recycling target by 2050. Chemical
2.3. Future primary chemical production and plastic waste recycling, which can reduce plastics either to monomers,
management feedstock oils, or even CO/H2 syngas, may provide alternative
To determine future chemical demands, individual CAGRs recycling routes for plastics that might be challenging to recycle
were attributed to each downstream chemical, derived from mechanically,96 though it is not applied in this analysis.
the IEA5 and Kätelhön et al.32 These CAGRs were then scaled The physical parameters for each chemical production route
according to the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita chemical are presented in Table S19 (ESI†), due to the high number of
demand model, based on the LUT-EEES macro-economic scenario processes considered in this study.

Fig. 15 Total plastic production (line) and plastics by applications (bars) from 1990 to 2100 in 10-year intervals.

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2.4. Economics of chemical production electricity (LCOE) were applied, one for ‘direct’ electricity
Annualised costs and levelised costs of primary chemicals demands required to operate DAC and chemical production
(LCOC) for the scenarios defined in Section 2.3 were then plants that were assumed to operate at 8000 h/a, and another
determined to analyse the economic viability of green chemical for ‘indirect’ electricity used by water electrolysers to produce
pathways compared to business-as-usual conditions. A weighted e-hydrogen, which can operate flexibly according to solar PV
average cost of capital (WACC) of 7% was applied for all techno- and wind generation profiles. In major regions, direct LCOE
logies, and the capital recovery factor (crf) was determined using was taken from Bogdanov et al.,36 as embedded in the energy-
eqn (2.3). These costs were determined according to eqn (2.4) for industry system, and indirect LCOE was determined by con-
sidering a hybrid solar PV-wind power plant using utility-scale
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annualised costs and eqn (2.5) for LCOC.

shares of solar PV and wind power from Bogdanov et al.36
WACCð1 þ WACCÞni from 2020 to 2050 in 10-year intervals. Additional hydrogen
crf i ¼ (2.3)
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ð1 þ WACCÞni 1 storage was then required assuming a storage requirement of

500 GWhH2,LHV per baseload GWhH2,LHV with an energy-to-
X 
CostAnnualised ¼ Capexi  crf i þ Opexfix;i þ Opexvar;i power ratio of 200.97 GHG emissions costs were varied from
i 50, 114, 180, and 220 h/tCO2, as set in the 2021 IEA World
þ Costfuel þ CostEl þ CostGHG (2.4) Energy Outlook.37 Biomass costs were set to 34.7 h per MWhth
assuming a wood pellet price of 200 USD/t98 and an exchange
CostAnnualised rate of 1.2 USD per h. A full list of financial assumptions is
LCOC ¼ (2.5)
Cprimary þ Csecondary listed in Tables S11–S13 (ESI†).

where crf is the capital recovery factor for technology i, WACC is

the weighted average cost of capital, n is the lifetime of 2.5. Scenarios for defossilised chemicals
technology i, Capexi is the capital expenditures for technology Seven scenarios were then established to study rapid and
i, Opexfix,i is the fixed operational expenditures for technology i, delayed defossilisation pathways compared to business-as-
Opexvar,i is the variable operational expenditures for technology usual (BAU) conditions considering high and low biomass
i, Costfuel is the total fuel costs, CostEl is the total electricity variations, as well as a transition to direct electric process heat,
cost, CostGHG is the total GHG emissions cost, Cprimary is the which are defined in Table 4. In the BAU scenario, plastic
total production of primary chemicals, and Csecondary is the total recycling rates increased according the CAGR of plastic recy-
secondary chemical production from plastic recycling. cling from 2010 to 2019,28 whereas in the net-zero emission
Furthermore, costs were determined according to major (NZE) pathways these were varied to reach a maximum recy-
regions to identify which regions may have the best conditions cling rate of 60% in their net-zero emission year. Similarly,
for low-cost green chemicals. Fossil fuel feedstock prices plastic incineration rates were varied according to historical
were set according to Bogdanov et al.36 Two levelised costs of CAGR rates28 in the BAU scenario, and linearly in the NZE

Table 4 Technology transition assumptions for each scenario studied from fossil routes (conventional) to those using renewable electricity and
sustainable biomass resources (improved)

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

BAU Conventional 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Improved 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Biochemical share 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
NZE2050 Conventional 100% 85% 40% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Improved 0 15% 60% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Bioplastic share high 0 10% 25% 40% 50% 55% 60% 60% 60%
Bio-ammonia/bio-methanol share high 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Bioplastic share low 0 2% 5% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Bio-ammonia/bio-methanol share low 0 1% 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Direct electricity heating substitution 0 11.9% 88.1% 99.8% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
NZE2040 Conventional 100% 50% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Improved 0 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Bioplastic share high 0 15% 30% 50% 55% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Bio-ammonia/bio-methanol share high 0 10% 15% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Bioplastic share low 0 5% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Bio-ammonia/bio-methanol share low 0 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Direct electricity heating substitution 0 50.0% 98.2% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
NZE2060 Conventional 100% 90% 66% 25% 0 0 0 0 0
Improved 0 10% 34% 75% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Bioplastic share high 0 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 60% 60%
Bio-ammonia/bio-methanol share high 0 5% 8% 10% 15% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Bioplastic share low 0 1% 2% 4% 8% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Bio-ammonia/bio-methanol share low 0 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Direct electricity heating substitution 0 0.2% 11.9% 88.1% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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scenarios to reach 40% by the net-zero emission year. There- LCOC of a global chemical transition to e-chemicals and bio-
fore, the NZE scenarios establish plastic waste management chemicals.
leading to no landfilling nor mismanagement of plastic waste.
The transition is modelled to transition from conventional 3.1. Future chemical demand
fossil routes (Fig. 10) to one based on renewable methanol Under BAU conditions, the total primary volume of the 21
and ammonia. chemicals modelled increases significantly from 1220 Mt
The main variation among NZE scenarios, thus, is the (10 069 TWhLHV) to 2763 Mt (22 092 TWhLHV) in 2050 and
primary energy input to these primary platform chemicals, 3481 Mt (27 795 TWhLHV) in 2100, as shown in Fig. 16.
which can be either renewable electricity (e-chemicals) or With increased plastic recycling, however, primary chemical
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biomass (bio-chemicals). Therefore, each scenario was varied production can be reduced by 8.1%, 8.1%, and 5.9% in 2050 for
among high (H) and low (L) biomass scenarios, e.g., NZE2050H. NZE 2050, NZE 2040, and NZE 2060, respectively. By 2100,
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For bio-chemical routes, no first-generation energy crops were primary chemical production will be reduced by 6% compared
considered as feedstocks, due to potential land-use constraints to BAU across all NZE scenarios. The effect of recycling can be
and conflicts with food production. Consequently, only ligno- most observed in the demands of ethylene and propylene, due
cellulosic second-generation biomass was considered for bio- to the high shares of olefins in global plastics, whereas the
chemical production, with a maximum sustainable biomass of demands of BTX aromatics are only slightly reduced due to
100 EJ94 (27 800 TWh). In the high biomass scenarios, the their high use in non-plastic applications. The primary ethylene
bioenergy limit was set to 70 EJ (19 400 TWh), and in the demand in the BAU scenario, for example, reaches 358 Mt in
low biomass scenarios, the bioenergy limit was set to 25 EJ 2050, which is 12% higher than the ethylene demand in the
(6440 TWh). Bio-chemicals were prioritised for plastics, with NZE 2050 scenarios, at 296 Mt in 2050. Increased levels of both
smaller shares for bio-methanol and biomass-based ammonia plastic recycling and stabilisation of GDP/capita levels across
(bio-ammonia). For non-plastic HVCs, no biomass feedstocks global regions will lead to a levelling off of global chemical
were applied due to the high amounts of biomass needed for demands in the latter half of the century, especially from 2070
bioplastics. The scenarios are defined as follows: to 2100.
Business-as-usual (BAU). Fossil-based chemical production This effect can be better observed in Fig. 17, where chemical
continues to the end of the century, maintaining today’s levels demands by end use are shown.
of plastic recycling. Process heating is supplied by natural gas, In 2050, secondary plastics will be composed of 30.7%,
and power sector emissions are assumed to reach zero by 2050, 30.7%, and 25.9% of the total plastic demand in the NZE
assuming the defossilisation of the power sector, but not of the 2050, NZE 2040, and NZE 2060 scenarios, respectively, and
chemical industry. reach 53.7% of the global plastic demand by 2100 across
NZE 2050H/NZE 2050L. Feedstocks to the global chemical scenarios, compared to 40.8%% in the BAU scenario. The total
industry in this scenario are completely defossilised by 2050, savings of primary final chemical production in the NZE 2050
with high (H) and low (L) biomass feedstock variations. Plastic scenario amounts to 223 Mt in 2050 and 210 Mt in 2100
recycling rates reach 60% in 2050 and power sector emissions compared to the BAU scenario. The rapid increase of secondary
reach net-zero emissions by 2050. plastic shares is largely due to the high shares of packaging
NZE 2040H/NZE 2040L. Feedstocks to the global chemical plastics, which typically have a lifetime of less than a year
industry in this scenario are completely defossilised by 2040, and are thus available for recycling within the same annual
with high (H) and low (L) biomass feedstock variations. Plastic time step.
recycling rates reach 60% in 2040 and power sector emissions
reach net-zero emissions by 2040. 3.2. Flows and feedstocks for the future chemical industry
NZE 2060H/NZE 2060L. Feedstocks to the global chemical By 2050, the significant increase in global chemical demands
industry in this scenario are completely defossilised by 2060, implies similar increases in hydrocarbon feedstocks, which
with high (H) and low (L) biomass feedstock variations. Plastic can either result in significant increases in fossil feedstocks,
recycling rates reach 60% in 2060 and power sector emissions as shown in Fig. 18, or a transition to renewable hydrocarbon
reach net-zero emissions by 2060. feedstocks, as shown in Fig. 19 and Fig. 20. In the BAU
scenario, the total fossil feedstock demands increase from
11 029 TWhth,LHV to 23 591 TWhth,LHV in 2050, corresponding
3. Results to a CAGR of 2.6%. The steam cracker remains the key
technology to produce HVCs, consuming 54.1% of the total
The results of this research are organised as follows: Section 3.1 fossil feedstocks. Under BAU conditions, the highest shares
presents the future global chemical production landscape from of losses come from conventional ammonia and methanol
2020 to 2100 in 10 year intervals, Section 3.2 examines the production, whereas HVC production mostly results in by-
energy system and feedstock requirements for each scenario, products, whose energy content reaches 7320 TWhth,LHV, with
Section 3.3 shows the evolution of regional chemical produc- only 0.5% feedstock losses.22
tion due to increased GDP/capita in the emerging economies of Comparatively, the NZE 2050H and NZE 2050L scenarios
the world, and Section 3.4 considers the annualised costs and present a full transition of primary energy inputs from today’s

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Fig. 16 Global chemical demand for BAU (top left), NZE 2050 (top right), NZE 2040 (bottom left), and NZE 2060 (bottom right).

Fig. 17 Final chemical demands by end use for BAU (top left), NZE 2050 (top right), NZE 2040 (bottom left), and NZE 2060 (bottom right).

fossil fuel structure to ones dominated by renewable electricity 35.4% of the global sustainable biomass demand, and, in NZE
and biomass, as in the case of the NZE 2050H scenario. 2050L, only 9.2% is used. Methanol becomes the most impor-
By 2050, 27 759–33 031 TWhel and 2548–9848 TWhth of biomass tant chemical feedstock as all olefins and BTX aromatics are
feedstocks are required to satisfy the global chemical feedstock derived from e-methanol and bio-methanol. While the MTO
demands. In NZE 2050H, the biomass demand corresponds to process shows a high energy conversion from the methanol

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Fig. 18 Global chemical flows in 2050 for the BAU scenario.

Fig. 19 Global chemical flows for the NZE 2050H scenario.

feedstock to olefin, the MTA process has significant shares of heating demands as the excess heat of the MTO process is at
input energy content converted to by-products, most notably 500 1C. Additionally, hydrogen by-products from chlorine produc-
LPG. Total losses in NZE 2050L are lower than those of NZE tion and the MTO process in this study are assumed to partially
2050H despite significantly increased electrolyser losses, largely substitute hydrogen from electrolysis, although the total impact of
due to the higher energy efficiency of the power-to-methanol these hydrogen by-products is rather small. The energy content of
process compared to biomass-to-methanol route. The new recycled plastics reaches 1961 TWhth in 2050, and 30.7% of total
dominant power-to-chemical structure additionally introduces a chemicals-to-plastics. Detailed Sankey diagrams from 2020 to
new excess heat by-product, which can either be used in district 2050 in 10 year intervals, 2070, and 2100 for BAU, NZE 2050H,
heating systems, CO2 DAC, or used for other industrial process and NZE 2050L are shown in Fig. S5–S16 (ESI†).

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Fig. 20 Global chemical flows for the NZE 2050L scenario.

Fig. 21 Chemical feedstock demands for the global chemical industry from 2020 to 2100 in 10-year intervals for the BAU (top left), NZE 2050H
(top right), and NZE 2050L (bottom) scenarios. Fossil feedstocks compose coal, fossil methane, and all oil feedstocks for HVC production.

Examining the feedstock transition pathway in more detail 35 075–40 169 TWhel in 2050 and 40 593–50 257 TWhel in 2100
as shown in Fig. 21, the total feedstock demand for chemicals for the NZE 2050H and NZE 2050L scenarios, respectively, from
can be expected to increase similarly with the growth in just 1645 TWhel in 2020. For reference, the IEA reported that
chemical demands; however, increased plastic recycling has the total electricity generation in 2020 was 26 708 TWhel.99
significant effects on reducing feedstock demands. In the BAU Therefore, by 2050, the chemical industry could be expected
scenario, fossil feedstock demands increase from 11 029 TWhth to have electricity demands that are 131–150% of today’s
in 2020 to 23 591 TWhth in 2050, and finally 27 705 TWhth in global electricity generation. This result suggests that the
2100. Comparatively, total feedstock demands in the NZE 2050 massive ramping of renewables, especially solar PV and wind
scenarios reach 20 628 TWhth and 25 515 TWhth in 2100, with power, will be required for the defossilisation of chemicals, as
varying levels of e-methanol and bio-methanol and ammonia. supplying this electricity demand with today’s electricity mix
According to the scenario definition, the largest increases of would undoubtedly cause a massive increase in chemical
renewable feedstocks occur from 2030 to 2040 and 2040 to industry emissions.32 The highest quantities of electricity will
2050, which will be required if the global chemical industry is be needed for e-hydrogen production, reaching 31 025 and
to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. 41 029 TWhel in the NZE 2050H and NZE 2050L scenarios,
Furthermore, significant e-chemical feedstocks imply signi- respectively, as shown in Fig. 22. Comparatively, direct elec-
ficant increases in renewable electricity capacity, as the tricity demands remain low across scenarios, only reaching
total electricity demands for the NZE 2050 scenarios reach 2564 (96% of total electricity demand), 6449 (13%), and 5523

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Fig. 22 Direct (for chemical production plants), indirect (for water electrolysis), and heating electricity demands for the BAU (top left), NZE 2050H (top
right), and NZE 2050L (bottom) scenarios.

(11%) TWhel in 2100 in the BAU, NZE 2050H, and NZE 2050L Fig. 25 then shows emissions levels for all scenarios studied.
scenarios, respectively. Emissions from the production of the chemicals considered in
A small but important shift occurs with process heating this study were found to be 1240 MtCO2eq in 2020, corres-
demands, as they transition from fossil boilers to electric boilers ponding to 3.6% of global CO2 emissions.99 The fossil content
and heat pumps, as shown in Fig. 23. In the BAU scenario, of non-plastic chemicals and incineration of fossil plastic waste
continued usage of fossil chemical processes leads to the contribute an additional 685 MtCO2eq, leading to total emis-
highest energy requirements for heat of the scenarios studied, sions of 1926 MtCO2eq. In the BAU scenario, emissions steadily
increasing from 1417 TWhth in 2020 to 3265 TWhth in 2050, and increase in the coming decades, reaching 3769 MtCO2eq in
3521 TWhth in 2100. Comparatively, the highest share of future 2050, before levelling off at an emissions level of 5713 MtCO2eq
heat demands for the chemical industry in the NZE scenarios is in 2100. Interestingly, the large increase of production-related
the heat required CO2 via DAC using heat pumps for the power- emissions in the BAU scenario seems to largely be a result of
to-methanol process. The total energy for heating in the NZE emissions from process heat, rather than from feedstocks. If all
2050 scenarios ranges from 2610 to 2919 TWh in 2050 and 7250 process emissions were reduced to zero in the BAU case,
to 9420 TWh in 2100 for NZE 2050H and NZE 2050L, respec- production-related emissions would only reach 1626 MtCO2eq
tively. Other process heating demands for primary and down- by 2100. Furthermore, the growing levels of fossil plastic waste
stream chemical production then transition to direct electric and fossil chemical production lead to significant growth in the
heating, assuming that temperature requirements are higher GHG impact of fossil chemicals.
than what can be supplied by heat pumps for the downstream While the NZE 2050 scenarios achieve emissions targets by
production processes. By 2100, 1549–1581 TWhth of recoverable the target year, it is not due to a steady decline in emissions.
heat will be available. Rather, an emissions peak in 2030 due to increased fossil
The impact of the transition from fossil to sustainable feedstock usage and rising electricity demands in an
feedstocks on emissions is shown in Fig. 24 by type for the electricity system environment with an emissions factor of
BAU, NZE 2050H, and NZE 2050L scenarios. 0.086 tCO2/MWhel, with the NZE 2040 scenarios being the

Fig. 23 Process heating demands and excess heat from exothermic reactions in the power-to-methanol, MTO, and MTA processes from 2020 to 2100
for BAU (top left), NZE 2050H (top right), and NZE 2050L (bottom) scenarios. Note that the value listed for heat pumps is the electricity input and is thus in
TWhel.

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Fig. 24 Chemical industry emissions by source for the BAU (top left), NZE 2050H (top right), and NZE 2050L (bottom) scenarios. In the NZE 2050
scenarios, low levels of GHG emissions are still present from the incineration of fossil plastic waste in 2050–2080, despite net-zero emission chemical
production.

Fig. 25 Global chemical industry emissions by scenario.

exception. After the first time-step, emissions decline from demand in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. The NZE
2030 to 2040 before reaching net-zero CO2 emissions in 2050. 2050H scenario, despite high biomass usage for plastics, finds
Comparing the emissions trajectories of all scenarios shows regional electricity demands above 200 TWhel in 2050, and,
that the high biomass scenarios tend to have lower emissions correspondingly, the highest chemical demand regions experi-
in the transition years relative to their low biomass counter- ence e-hydrogen demands up to 930 TWhH2,LHV. In the NZE
parts. This is again likely due to the increased electricity usage 2050L scenario, these demands are even higher on a regional
of the low biomass scenarios. basis, as the average regional electricity and hydrogen demands
are 277 TWhel and 159 TWhH2,LHV, with Central China
3.3. Geographical distribution having the highest of both demands at 1919 TWhel and 1104
While global feedstock and process energy demands are projected TWhH2,LHV, respectively.
to increase, regional pathways were found to vary substantially. While industrialised regions of the world including Europe
However, all global regions experience massive growth in electri- and North America experience only limited growth in the total
city and hydrogen demands, with the regions of the Global South feedstock required, as shown in Table 5, e-hydrogen and
having a much larger role in global chemical production com- biomass demands substantially grow across all major regions.
pared to today’s regional structure (Fig. 10). The regional struc- Table 6 and Table 7 indicate that for many major regions, peak
tures of key inputs to the global chemical industry for the BAU e-hydrogen demands for chemicals will occur around 2050 and
and NZE 2050 scenarios are shown in Fig. 26. The regional results 2060, though the regions of Eurasia, MENA, sub-Saharan Africa,
show that the increases in total demand for electricity, fossil and North America experience peak e-hydrogen demands
feedstocks in the BAU scenario, and e-hydrogen in the NZE 2050 in 2100. Due to increasing shares of biomass feedstocks in
scenarios is primarily driven by significant growth in the chemical the NZE 2050 scenarios, many regions do not have their peak

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Fig. 26 Regional total electricity and fossil feedstocks for the BAU scenario (top left), and e-hydrogen demands (middle and bottom right) for the BAU
(top), NZE 2050H (middle), and NZE 2050L (bottom) scenarios.

biomass demands until 2100. Peak process electricity demands primary production of the main platform chemicals and
largely follow the trends of e-hydrogen demands, largely due to chlorine, as well as secondary plastic production, to represent
the regional co-location of MTO and MTA plants and electro- the costs of feedstock substitution. The total annualised cost of
lyser capacities. Geographical results thus further highlight a the chemical industry in 2020 was found to be 630 bh, with fuel
shift of chemical production from the Global North to the and feedstock costs alone totalling to 369 bh. Under BAU
Global South as the sub-Saharan Africa and SAARC regions conditions, this cost structure continues, with GHG emission
experience the most rapid growth in renewable feedstocks pricing mechanisms adding an additional 805 bh by 2050 from
and will have the highest e-hydrogen and biomass feedstock the continued fossil fuel usage as feedstocks and for process
demands by 2100. Additional regional results by scenario for heat. Annualised costs in the BAU scenario will reach 2274 bh
2030, 2040, 2070, and 2100 are available in Fig. S17–S49 (ESI†). in 2050.
The results suggest that the net-zero emission chemical
3.4. Cost structure for a green chemical transition industry can have lower annualised costs in 2050 compared
The annualised cost structures of the BAU, NZE 2050H, and to those under BAU conditions, when low-cost renewable
NZE 2050L scenarios by cost component and by major region electricity is widely applied for e-methanol and e-ammonia,
are shown in Fig. 27. Due to the lack of available cost data for as is the case in the NZE 2050L scenario, with annualised costs
downstream processes, the annualised costs were developed for of 1938 bh. Conversely, the NZE 2050H scenario finds higher

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Table 5 Projections of primary energy and direct electricity demands for the BAU scenario from 2020 to 2100 in 10-year intervals by major regions. The
peak feedstock and electricity demands for each major region are highlighted in bold. Abbreviations: Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)

Fossil feedstock demand BAU [TWhth] 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Europe 1577 2046 1971 1861 1713 1621 1578 1568 1582
Eurasia 1081 1123 916 770 773 761 746 720 730
MENA 1056 1400 1441 1554 1793 1905 1924 1874 1899
Sub-Saharan Africa 116 672 1906 4180 6577 8230 9086 9441 10 063
SAARC 760 2072 3703 5407 6137 6110 5788 5470 5274
Northeast Asia 3205 4717 4818 4379 3828 3488 3286 3149 3082
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Southeast Asia 749 1360 1853 2261 2352 2243 2167 2114 2092
North America 2125 2415 2035 1713 1672 1659 1679 1679 1734
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South America 362 785 1148 1466 1518 1428 1348 1284 1248
Total global 11 029 16 590 19 790 23 591 26 364 27 446 27 601 27 300 27 705

Direct electricity demand BAU [TWhel] 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Europe 73 96 112 128 137 140 139 138 136
Eurasia 50 51 50 49 56 59 61 61.1 61.5
MENA 56 71 86 109 144 164 174 179 182
Sub-Saharan Africa 6 32 107 274 489 658 768 849 919
SAARC 35 96 204 351 466 513 518 507 491
Northeast Asia 150 221 274 302 320 316 304 291 279
Southeast Asia 35 63 101 146 178 191 193 192 189
North America 104 116 115 114 129 138 144 147 149
South America 17 36 63 94 115 123 123 120 116
Total global 525 782 1112 1567 2034 2302 2424 2483 2523

Table 6 Projections of renewable feedstocks and direct electricity demands for the NZE 2050H scenario. The peak feedstock and electricity demand for
each major region are highlighted in bold

Total e-Hydrogen demand NZE 2050H [TWhH2,LHV] 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Europe 0 220 1066 1556 1339 1256 1217 1229 1256
Eurasia 0 119 451 560 541 545 560 574 591
MENA 0 121 767 1308 1410 1468 1489 1528 1576
Sub-Saharan Africa 0 65 1026 3480 5038 6079 6556 7102 7713
SAARC 0 214 1976 4471 4754 4623 4281 4106 4025
Northeast Asia 0 495 2607 3748 3137 2810 2625 2568 2561
Southeast Asia 0 141 974 1828 1780 1706 1619 1601 1609
North America 0 261 1051 1288 1212 1262 1312 1361 1416
South America 0 87 610 1191 1152 1095 1017 984 970
Total global 0 1724 10 528 19 431 20 362 20 844 20 675 21 054 21 718

Total Biomass demand NZE 2050H [TWhth] 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Europe 0 31 284 729 788 796 845 852 873
Eurasia 0 17 113 230 291 329 385 395 406
MENA 0 22 209 638 920 1060 1184 1191 1211
Sub-Saharan Africa 0 11 309 1935 3757 5026 5901 6197 6577
SAARC 0 31 576 2413 3389 3579 3531 3255 3118
Northeast Asia 0 71 708 1796 1874 1768 1781 1724 1716
Southeast Asia 0 20 276 947 1205 1251 1274 1229 1219
North America 0 37 268 534 646 772 917 955 995
South America 0 12 173 627 791 812 805 755 731
Total global 0 251 2916 9848 13 661 15 392 16 622 16 554 16 846

Direct Electricity demand NZE 2050H [TWhel] 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Europe 73 135 259 367 355 347 347 346 349
Eurasia 50 72 109 128 139 147 156 159 162
MENA 56 99 192 313 387 426 450 456 464
Sub-Saharan Africa 6 45 258 872 1457 1863 2101 2248 2403
SAARC 35 135 491 1108 1354 1390 1336 1261 1214
Northeast Asia 148 308 636 889 837 778 745 717 703
Southeast Asia 35 88 241 446 497 502 493 481 475
North America 104 161 254 294 312 341 369 380 392
South America 17 51 150 292 323 323 312 297 287
Total global 524 1095 2591 4709 5663 6118 6309 6347 6449

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Table 7 Projections of renewable feedstocks and direct electricity demands for the NZE 2050L scenario. The peak feedstock and electricity demand for
each major region are highlighted in bold

Total e-Hydrogen demand NZE 2050L [TWhH2,LHV] 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Europe 0 233 1179 1826 1653 1580 1567 1582 1618
Eurasia 0 126 496 646 656 680 719 738 760
MENA 0 130 850 1547 1779 1902 1982 2023 2079
Sub-Saharan Africa 0 70 1150 4211 6554 8142 9015 9682 10 450
SAARC 0 227 2206 5380 6117 6089 5750 5458 5320
Northeast Asia 0 523 2888 4417 3883 3529 3362 3283 3273
Southeast Asia 0 149 1085 2183 2263 2218 2149 2112 2116
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North America 0 276 1157 1486 1469 1577 1693 1758 1829
South America 0 92 679 1426 1470 1427 1351 1298 1274
Total global 0 1825 11 690 23 122 25 844 27 143 27 589 27 935 28 720
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Total Biomass demand NZE 2050L [TWhth] 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Europe 0 6 60 188 162 151 149 150 153
Eurasia 0 3 24 60 60 63 68 69 71
MENA 0 4 44 166 189 201 207 208 212
Sub-Saharan Africa 0 2 65 501 773 947 1027 1080 1147
SAARC 0 6 122 625 697 676 619 571 547
Northeast Asia 0 14 150 463 385 336 314 304 302
Southeast Asia 0 4 58 245 248 237 224 216 214
North America 0 7 57 138 133 147 161 167 174
South America 0 2 37 162 163 154 141 133 128
Total global 0 50 620 2548 2811 2910 2909 2899 2948

Direct Electricity demand NZE 2050L [TWhel] 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Europe 73 134 245 331 314 305 301 300 301
Eurasia 50 71 104 116 124 129 135 137 139
MENA 56 97 181 281 339 369 385 391 397
Sub-Saharan Africa 6 45 242 775 1256 1590 1776 1907 2041
SAARC 35 133 460 988 1174 1196 1142 1083 1043
Northeast Asia 149 307 601 800 739 683 648 623 609
Southeast Asia 35 87 226 399 434 434 423 413 408
North America 104 160 241 268 278 300 319 328 337
South America 17 50 141 261 282 280 267 255 247
Total global 524 1086 2447 4709 5663 6118 6309 6347 6449

annualised costs of 2147 bh, which is primarily due to the high indicated by highly competitive solar hydrogen.100 Regional
biomass feedstock costs, which total 342 bh in 2050. Due to the annualised costs are shown in Fig. S32–S40 (ESI†).
widespread application of power-to-chemicals routes, the LCOC at a global level, as shown in Fig. 28, shows a similar
annualised cost structure transitions from being fuel domi- trend as the annualised costs, as the total cost per primary
nated to being driven by electricity costs and capital expendi- chemical increases globally from 900 h/t to 1617, 1409, and
tures (capex), especially for water electrolysers and hydrogen 1272 h/t in 2050 for the BAU, NZE 5050H, and NZE 2050L
storage, as shown in Fig. S31 (ESI†). Increases in operational scenarios, respectively. On a regional basis, there is a noticeable
expenditures (opex) also experience a noticeable increase, deviation of LCOC in the NZE 2050 scenarios as the LCOC
largely due to high opexfix for hydrogen storage and chlor- ranges from 1259 to 1473 h/t and 1157 to 1352 h/t in the NZE
alkali electrolysers. Furthermore, increased plastic recycling 2050H and NZE 2050L scenarios, respectively. Despite having
plays a limited but important role in reducing costs for primary among the lowest LCOE, the SSA and SAARC regions have
chemical feedstocks. among the highest levelised costs in 2050 for the NZE 2050
Regional contributions to global annualised costs follow the scenarios, compared to MENA, which has the third lowest, due
structure of geographical results, as the contributions of the to higher demands of primary chemicals. Interestingly, North
major chemical producing regions in 2020 decrease from 14%, America has the lowest LCOC in 2050, pointing to optimal
29%, and 19% to 9%, 19%, and 7% for Europe, Northeast Asia, conditions of low LCOE and high availability of plastic waste for
and North America, respectively. Conversely, annualised costs secondary plastics.
in the sub-Saharan Africa and SAARC regions increase substan-
tially from 1% and 7% in 2020 to 18% and 23% in 2050,
respectively. Such a rapid growth of chemical production in 4. Discussion
the regions of the Global South suggests a massive ramping of
sustainable chemical production technologies as well as renew- The discussion section is separated into four sub-sections.
able electricity, especially solar PV, and water electrolysers, as Section 4.1 will discuss the main findings of this research in

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Fig. 27 Annualised costs from 2020 to 2050 by cost component and by major region for the BAU (left), NZE 2050H (middle), and NZE 2050L (right)
scenarios. Positive GHG emission costs in 2050 in the NZE 2050 scenarios result from the incineration of fossil plastic waste.

Fig. 28 Levelised cost of chemicals (LCOC) by cost component (top) and per major region (bottom) for the BAU (left), NZE 2050H (middle), and NZE 2050L
(bottom) scenario from 2020 to 2050. Positive GHG emissions costs in 2050 in the NZE 2050 scenarios result from incineration of fossil plastic waste.

the context of other similar research. Section 4.2 provides an 4.1. Main findings
outlook of the green chemical industry in the context of energy The results of this research suggest that the full defossilisation
system modelling. Section 4.3 considers the impacts of the defos- of the global chemical industry implies massive renewable
silised chemical industry on sustainable feedstocks, and Section 4.4 electricity, green e-hydrogen, and green e-methanol demands.
discusses limitations and opportunities for further research. Across the NZE emissions scenarios studied, total electricity,

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e-hydrogen, and e-methanol demands in 2050 range from Europe could result in a total electricity demand of 1615
28 909 to 40 162 TWhel, 16 069 to 23 116 TWhH2,LHV, and 13 721 TWhel.104
to 17 750 TWhMeOH,LHV, respectively. Such high quantities of Analysis of annualised and levelised cost structure finds that
sustainable feedstocks are confirmed by the literature, as the NZE 2050L scenario, with the highest shares of e-chemicals,
research investigating net-zero emissions finds a total electri- has the lowest annualised costs by 2050, pointing to the
city demand of around 12 3074-34 70033 TWhel, the majority of viability power-to-X economy105 basis for the global chemical
which would be used for green e-hydrogen production. industry. Such levels of renewable electricity supply are
Although increased recycling levels can reduce the quantity of feasible, as research in the 100% RE system analyses has
primary feedstocks, secondary plastics are not sufficient to found a cost-optimal renewable electricity generation of over
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cover global plastic demands. In 2050, secondary plastics can 100 000 TWhel from solar PV and wind power alone.106 While
cover 26–31% of total plastics, and by 2100, this share increases this research finds that a high electrification of the global
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to 51%. Saygin and Gielen4 found that by 2050, 42% of the plastic chemical industry leads to the lowest annualised costs, Zibunas
demand can be satisfied by increased recycling, though this also et al.33 found that higher biomass shares, in conjunction with
comes with demand reduction measures. Outside of chemicals-to- increased recycling and some electrification, lead to lowest
plastics, chemicals-to-pesticides increase steadily from 24.8 TWhth annualised costs among net-zero emissions scenarios com-
in 2020 to 57.3 TWhth in 2050 and 82.2 TWhth in 2100, which pared to the high electrification scenario. This contrasting
roughly correspond to feedstock demands of 55, 129, and finding is heavily influenced by the electricity costs used,
185 TWhth in 2020, 2050, and 2100, respectively, considering especially for water electrolysis, which ranges from 10.0 to
a feedstock demand of 2.25 MWhth/MWhth,pesticide.101 18.8 h/MWhel in this research, strongly driven by the low-cost
Results additionally suggest that CO2 demands by the global solar PV. Additionally, relevant to the economic viability of the
chemical industry will require 3.39–4.74 GtCO2 in 2050. green chemical transition is the use of GHG emissions pricing
Research investigating a CCU-based chemical industry in mechanisms, as the BAU scenario without GHG emissions
203032 similarly found a global CO2 demand of 3.72 GtCO2, costs would be the least cost scenario at 1468 bh in 2050 with
though this scenario assumes a power-to-methane-to-ammonia a LCOC of 1044 h/t. Furthermore, sustainable chemical produc-
route rather than the power-to-hydrogen-to-ammonia route tion during the transition would consistently be more expen-
considered in this study. While this research assumes a supply sive than fossil routes, especially for HVCs that have low
of CO2 from DAC, there are key sustainable or unavoidable feedstock emissions. Therefore, some additional economic
point source emissions from cement production, pulp and incentives may be required for green chemical production,
paper mills, and waste incineration, and this potential has such as a carbon credit for the CO2 used in e-chemicals.107
been estimated to be 2471 MtCO2 in 2050.62 Additionally, point-
source capture of fossil plastic emissions in waste incinerators 4.2. Green chemical industry in energy system modelling
could provide CCU opportunities for the fossil carbon While the energy transition of energy systems to high shares of
embedded in fossil plastics; however, this potential is limited renewables is well understood,106,108 the global transition of
to only several hundred MtCO2. For the global CO2 demands of non-energy feedstocks to 100% renewable feedstock has not yet
this research, the total point source emission potential could been investigated in an energy system model. However, it has
satisfy 52–74% of total CO2 demands by 2050, which could been conceptionally added to the first energy system model,109
increase the economic viability of power-to-chemicals. This and it was applied for Europe,110 which is the only known study
may also lead to co-location of e-chemical production with applying all required e-fuels and e-chemical buildings blocks
low-cost point source CO2 emissions.102 for the sustainable energy-industry system transition.62 The
The geographical results suggest that the most rapid growth chemical sector alone is responsible for over 11 000 TWhth of
of green feedstocks for most regions will occur from 2030 to fossil fuel consumption, and the share of chemical production
2050, with regions that do not reach their peaks until the end in total fossil fuel demands is expected to increase as other
of the century only having moderate growth in feedstock sectors defossilise.1 Furthermore, similar to other industry
demands. The most notable exception to this trend, though, sectors, high electrification of production processes is not
can be seen in the results for sub-Saharan Africa, as the largest sufficient to eliminate CO2 emissions. The chemical industry
growth in demand occurs in the latter half of the century. While is among the most difficult to abate sectors because of the
today’s chemical industry is largely dominated by countries of requirement of hydrocarbon feedstocks and the high costs of
the Global North, this structure will likely shift to have higher e-chemicals. The most feedstock emission intensive processes
shares of chemical production in the countries of the Global in the chemical industry are ammonia and methanol produc-
South, which has already been observed in net-zero emissions tion; thus research has largely focused on the defossilisation
scenarios for the steel industry.103 Research for the chemical of these processes through power-to-X13,19,63,64,70,111–116 and
industry in Europe finds that in a power-to-X dominated biomass85,117–121 routes. While methanol-to-chemicals routes
structure, the total indirect electricity demand for chemicals have gained increased attention in the literature for methanol-
reaches 2634 TWhel,43 which confirms the indirect electricity to-olefins24,72,74,75,122 and methanol-to-aromatics,76,77,123 much
demand for Europe in this study of 2609 TWhel in the NZE of this research has focused on coal-based methanol rather
2050L scenario. Additionally, e-plastics production alone in than power-to-methanol.

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Although feedstock switching is the key to defossilisation of exothermic,74 with excess heat from these processes alone
the chemical industry, it is also crucial to understand how reaching over 861–1134 TWhth by 2050, there may be opportu-
feedstock quantities can change because of process switching. nities for analogous usage of waste heat both in other industrial
Taking ethylene, this research shows a global transition from processes of district heating systems, and as valuable heat for
steam crackers based on oil products to MTO. Outside of the reducing CO2 sourcing cost in DAC units.125 Additionally, the
main products, the by-product structure of these routes is high wastewater by-product from MTO and MTA could supply
noticeably different, and research suggests that some steam the high water demands required for electrolysis, which may
crackers may be necessary to satisfy global butadiene demands, be extremely relevant if there is a gradual shift of the global
which today is covered completely by steam cracker by- chemical industry towards production in regions with low-cost
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products.4 Furthermore, the feedstock requirements per ton electricity and large amounts of the available land. CCU for the
of chemicals can vary significantly by the process and feed- chemical industry could increase the circularity of the global
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stock, which is especially true for the MTA process, which has a chemical industry in CO2, energy integration, and water.45
BTX yield of only 16%.26 Therefore, a one-to-one feedstock However, the power-to-methanol and methanol-to-chemical
switching for modelling of global chemical demands may not production sites may be part of split value chains, which would
be appropriate, and more detailed examination of feedstock reduce the potential to utilise this wastewater by-product.
requirements for the primary platform chemicals is necessary,
as performed in this research. The approach presented in this 4.3. Impact of the global chemical industry on sustainable
research can thus provide scalable sustainable pathways for the feedstock demands
global chemical industry that fully phases out fossil fuels that Since the NZE 2050L scenario emerges as the least cost scenario
can be applied in energy system models. studied, many regions of the world may opt for an e-chemical
Understanding the transition of the global chemical industry production landscape, especially those with limited sustainable
towards sustainable feedstocks in conjunction with the larger biomass resources. Of the industrial sectors, the chemical
global energy-industry system transition is still lacking.106 The industry stands to become the industry with the highest
2022 IEA World Energy Outlook’s NZE 2050 scenario99 still demand for e-hydrogen, as this research finds e-hydrogen
requires over 20 EJ of fossil feedstocks for chemical production, demands in the range of 16 069–23 116 TWhH2,LHV. In a
with electrification routes only being utilised for e-ammonia chemical sector completely supplied by e-ammonia and
and e-methanol production. However, when considering the e-methanol, the total e-hydrogen demand could similarly be
quantities of feedstocks that would need to be defossilised, within the range of 19 000 TWhH2,LHV.12 Furthermore, if all
a full consideration of chemical feedstocks is extremely relevant chemical demands in 2030 were to be supplied by e-methanol
to the complete energy-industry transition perspective. When and e-methane for ammonia, total e-hydrogen demands would
examining the NZE2050 scenarios, the total feedstocks required total 19 831 TWhH2,LHV.32 This e-hydrogen demand may be
increase from 11 029 TWhth of fossil feedstocks in 2020 to larger than the next two largest industrial consumers, the
20 628 TWhth of e-chemical feedstocks in 2050, and 25 515 cement and steel industry, whose e-hydrogen demands may
TWhth in 2100. Fully defossilised feedstock demands would range between 4900 and 10 400 TWhH2,LHV126 and 2800 and
then require primary electricity and bioenergy demands of 27 759– 4400 TWhH2,LHV,103 respectively. In the NZE 2050 scenario
33 082 TWhel and 2548–9848 TWhth in 2050, and 31 026–42 108 studied, the total installed electrolyser capacity would reach
TWhel and 2948–16 846 TWhth in 2100, respectively. Therefore, 5.2–6.2 TWH2,LHV by 2050, assuming flexible operation accord-
detailed estimates of the primary energy and final energy demands ing to renewable electricity generation profiles,36 which repre-
of the chemical industry, as performed in Keiner et al.,38 are sents about 31–36% of the total estimated about 17 TWH2,LHV of
essential for developing comprehensive perspectives on the the electrolyser demand by 2050.100 The steel and cement
energy-industry transition, as it may be the most relevant in terms industries then may require additional terawatt-scale capacities
of primary and final energy demands for all industrial sectors. of both electrolysers and solar PV and wind power to ensure low
Insights into the European energy-industry transition110 e-hydrogen production costs.
are among the first to provide defossilisation pathways for The solar PV capacity in 2021 represented 50% of the global
chemical feedstocks, and point to an interesting dynamic added power generation capacity.127 It is ramped at a high
where e-naphtha, a by-product from the Fischer-Tropsch pro- CAGR of 20–30%/a in the long term and a silicon production
cess for e-fuels production,124 can be used as a feedstock in the capacity of more than 900 GW/a is forecasted by 2050,128 while
chemical industry. Given the low yield of BTX aromatics from the growth is projected to continue.36,129 Studies have found
the MTA process, e-naphtha by-products may be best utilised in that 70–80% of the total global electricity generation could
the catalytic reforming of naphtha, which has a much higher be contributed by solar PV by 2050,36 which is a consequence
aromatic yield. Ikähemo et al.17 investigated the interactions of of low-costs, the historic fastest growth and phase-in of any
e-ammonia production in the Northern European energy sys- energy source,130 and the PV industry that is capable to
tem and found that e-ammonia could act as a form of long-term continuously grow faster in manufacturing capacities than the
energy storage and that waste heat from the power-to-ammonia demand.129,131 It is estimated that the total installed PV capa-
process could be used for space heating or in other industrial city by 2050 could be up to 70 TW,129 of which 18.6 TW (27%)
processes. Given that both the MTO and MTA processes are would be required for the chemical industry, assuming 76% of the

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40 382 TWh of the electricity demand for the NZE 2050L supplied lower in cost than domestic e-steel.135–137 Chemical production
by the solar PV for a global average yield of 1650 kWh/kWp.36 may follow a similar trend where chemical plants are sited in
Furthermore, CO2 capture facilities, either a point source or DAC, regions with the best RE resource availability. For China, the
will need to be in the order of GtCO2/a, as this research finds a total United States, and the Middle East, there may be sufficiently
CO2 demand of 3.34–4.74 GtCO2/a. available RE resources to continue high levels of domestic
During the transitionary period, biomass could be used to production; however, Europe may have challenges with produ-
reduce chemical industry emissions without such a large cing economically competitive e-chemicals compared to the
electrolyser and CO2 capture plants, though there would still best sites in the world. The solution for Europe may be to
be the need for megaton-scale bio-ammonia and bio-methanol largely import e-methanol as a new bulk chemical so that
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported Licence.

plants. In this research, biomass resources were prioritised for HVC can be produced, similarly to the use of imported fossil
bioplastic chemicals, which, with limited shares of bio-ammonia feedstocks as of today. Therefore, additional research should
Open Access Article. Published on 18 May 2023. Downloaded on 3/20/2025 6:34:54 PM.

and direct bio-methanol, require 16 799 TWhth of biomass by 2100, investigate new supply chain configurations that can best
corresponding to 60% of the global sustainable biomass resource capitalise on low-cost solar electricity to increase the economic
of 100 EJ94 (27 800 TWh). While the share of biochemicals could viability of e-chemicals, especially for e-olefins and e-aromatics.
be higher, sustainable biomass may also be in competition with When considering the economic viability of e-chemicals
use in other energy sectors, such as biofuels for transport, compared to fossil-based and biomass-based chemicals, elec-
bioenergy for heat supply, and compete with food production.42 tricity costs are the most relevant factor as primary electricity is
Without increases in plastic recycling, total biomass consump- the key input for e-chemicals. While the indirect LCOE applied
tion for chemicals could reach up to 101 EJ,33 just about to electrolysers, which do not need to match specific load
exceeding sustainable limits. profiles, has low uncertainty when supplied by hybrid solar
Bio-based plastics are among the chemical products that have PV-wind power plants, the direct LCOE applied to the chemical
received the most attention in recent years;1 however, a challenge production plants, which are assumed to operate under near
remains with the biodegradability of bio-plastics, as conventional baseload conditions, has higher uncertainty. The direct LCOE
bio-based plastics, e.g., bio-based polyethylene and polyethylene applied in this study, based on the transition of the entire
terephthalate, are not biodegradable nor compostable,1 though energy system,36 may better match the legacy cost of existing
there is research to increase the biodegradability of conventional systems, and thus lead to higher LCOE. Comparatively, the
plastics.132 Furthermore, life-cycle analysis results suggest that a approach taken by Fasihi and Breyer97 would be better adapted
power-to-polyethylene route may be more beneficial in terms of to near baseload supply of the chemical industry and new
climate and biodiversity impacts compared to the bio-polyethylene greenfield investments based on RE supply. In terms of annual-
route.133 The use of limited biomass resources may be best ised costs, applying the latter LCOE methodology would lead to
prioritised in the production of biodegradable bioplastics such increased annualised costs of 6.7% in 2020, but a decrease of
as polybutylene adipate terephthalate and polylactic acid, though annualised costs of 66 bh, or 3.0%, in 2050 in the NZE 2050L
responsible end-of-life practices are still necessary for biodegrad- scenario. Additionally, the emission reductions from applying
able plastics.134 The co-evolution and integration of e-chemicals direct and indirect LCOEs based on greenfield hybrid solar
and bio-chemicals may be a viable pathway forward, as low-cost PV-wind electricity supplies are 236, 110, and 56 MtCO2eq in
electricity could be coupled with biogenic carbon inputs,104 along 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively, in the NZE 2050L scenario.
with the parallel development of biodegradable plastics. There is also high uncertainty with maximum potential
recycling rates for plastics, as recycling rates in 2050 can range
4.4. Limitations and future work recommendations in the literature from 541 to 664%, and a recycling rate of 60%
Due to the complexity of the global chemical industry, not all was established for the NZE year in this study. Potentially
data regarding chemical flows were readily available, and a lack higher plastic recycling rates may be possible, which would
of open access to production data in the chemical industry has reduce the primary chemical demand and thus the sustainable
been highlighted by Levi and Cullen.8 Therefore, the model feedstock demands. Nevertheless, plastic chemicals comprise
developed here is not able to cover every relevant chemical around 61% of the total chemical demand modelled in this
production process, but major routes, especially those for research in 2050; therefore, significant quantities of sustain-
ammonia, methanol, and the HVCs, are fully covered. Addi- able feedstocks will still be required for non-plastic chemicals.
tionally, data for the chemical industry is typically provided at a Furthermore, as mentioned in Section 4.2, e-naphtha by-products
global level; thus regional distribution is based on feedstock from Fischer-Tropsch plants may be utilised to substitute green
usage, which may not perfectly capture where chemical pro- methanol demands,124 though quantities of e-naphtha available
ducts are finally used, as chemicals imports and exports are not require comprehensive energy-industry system analysis and was
transparent. The regional production and use landscape should thus not considered in this research.
be placed under further scrutiny in a transition to a green
chemicals landscape, especially one dominated by e-chemicals. 5. Conclusions
Previous research for e-steel has suggested that imports of
intermediate iron and final steel from regions with abundant The defossilisation of the global chemical industry implies
solar resources, many of which are in the Global South, may be significant e-hydrogen and renewable electricity demands as

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green ammonia and green methanol compose the background Abbreviations

of a sustainable chemical industry. This research provides the
first pathways to a sustainable chemical industry to the end of ASU Air separation unit
the century with a high global-local resolution of 145 LUT BECCS Bioenergy carbon capture and storage
regions. While annualised costs for a green chemical industry bio-Ammonia Biomass-based ammonia
can be lower than business-as-usual conditions, certain bio-Methanol Biomass-based methanol
requirements must be met, such as BNL Belgium and the Netherlands
 Gigaton-scale CO2 as the raw material is required either BTX Benzene, toluene, and xylenes
from point sources, e.g., cement, waste incinerators, or pulp CAGR Compound annual growth rate
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported Licence.

and paper industries, or from direct air capture. Furthermore, CCS Carbon capture and storage
terawatt-scale solar PV and wind power as well as electrolysers CCU Carbon capture and utilisation
Open Access Article. Published on 18 May 2023. Downloaded on 3/20/2025 6:34:54 PM.

will be required for the chemical industry alone. The waste- CR Catalytic reforming of naphtha
water by-product of the methanol-to-olefins and methanol-to- crf Capital recovery factor
aromatics processes may be usable by water electrolysers to DAC Direct air capture
reduce the freshwater demand of the chemical industry if DCC Deep catalytic cracking
electrolysers are co-located with chemical production facilities, e-Ammonia Electricity-based ammonia
which would be of high relevance in dry regions with excellent e-Hydrogen Electricity-based hydrogen
solar resources. e-Methanol Electricity-based methanol
 High shares of plastic recycling are required to reduce the GHG Greenhouse gas
total feedstock requirement for primary chemicals, but the HVC High value chemical
available secondary plastics are not sufficient to completely IAM Integrated assessment model
substitute primary plastic production. IEA International energy agency
 High biomass routes lead to higher annualised costs IPCC Intergovernmental panel on climate change
compared to high shares of e-chemicals, suggesting that limited LCOC Levelised cost of chemicals
sustainable biomass resources may be better utilised in emerging LCOE Levelised cost of electricity
biodegradable bioplastic markets, or as a source of biogenic CO2 LPG Liquefied petroleum gas
coupled with e-chemical production. Furthermore, use of first- MENA Middle east and north Africa
generation biomass sources should be avoided due to land-use MeOH Methanol
constraints and competition with food production. MTO Methanol-to-olefins
 A full transition of the global energy system towards MTA Methanol-to-aromatics
absolute zero CO2 emissions is required to completely decouple NZE Net-zero emissions
fossil fuels from the chemical industry. Without a full defossi- OECD Organisation for economic co-operation and
lisation of the energy system, increased shares of e-chemical development
production could lead to an increase in CO2 emissions from the OPP On-purpose propylene
chemical industry due to the high quantities of electricity RE Renewable energy
required. Furthermore, this research finds that all process TDP Toluene disproportionation
demands, both direct electric and heating, can be met by direct THD Toluene hydrodealkylation
electricity, electric heating, and heat pumps. TRL Technology readiness level
Global feedstock demands for the chemical industry are SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
expected to increase to the end of the century, with the highest SAARC Southeast Asia association for regional
growth being experienced in the emerging economies of the cooperation
Global South, with global green ammonia and methanol WACC Weighted average cost of capital
demands reaching 2365 TWhNH3,LHV and 23 343 TWhMeOH,LHV
in 2100, respectively. This global growth in feedstock demands Conflicts of interest
is driven primarily by sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Regional development of the chemical industry transition may There are no conflicts to declare.
affect feedstock choices for green chemicals, and new chemical
production hubs may emerge in regions with high availability of Acknowledgements
land and low-cost renewable electricity, especially from solar
photovoltaics. Access to sustainable feedstocks may be the largest The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of
bottleneck hindering green chemical production, thus improved Business Finland for the ‘P2XENABLE’ project under the num-
waste management and higher recycling rates can serve to reduce ber 8588/31/2019, the Academy of Finland for the ‘Industrial
primary feedstock demands. Therefore, rapid defossilisation of Emissions & CDR’ project under the number 329313, and the
global energy systems through low-cost solar electricity, along with LUT University Research Platform ‘GreenRenew’, which partly
improved plastic recycling, can catalyse an economically viable funded this research. Dominik Keiner would like to thank the
defossilisation of the global chemical industry. Jenny and Antti Wihuri foundation for the valuable grant.

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