Required Report: Required - Public Distribution Date: April 04, 2025

Report Number: UP2025-0008

Report Name: Oilseeds and Products Annual

Country: Ukraine

Post: Kyiv

Report Category: Oilseeds and Products

Prepared By: Denys Sobolev

Approved By: Megan Francic

Report Highlights:

Post forecasts Ukrainian farmers will maintain similar areas under oilseed production for marketing year
(MY) 2025/26 as compared to the previous MY; however, Post forecasts the split among individual
oilseeds will differ. Smaller areas for rapeseed, due to unfavorable planting conditions, and sunflower,
due to crop rotations and seed availability, will be compensated by increasing soybean acreage. Post
expects higher soybean crush as the result of excess crush capacity and lack of sunflower seeds. The EU
will remain the primary market for Ukrainian oilseeds, oils, and meals.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY
STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY
Abbreviations:

MAPFU – the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine

BSGI – Black Sea Grain Initiative
CY – Calendar Year
ha - Hectare
MY – Marketing Year
MT – Metric Ton
MMT – Million Metric Tons
NDVI – Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
PSD – Production, Supply, and Distribution
SSSU – State Statistics Service of Ukraine

Data included in this report is not official USDA data. Official USDA data is available at
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home

Disclaimer: Due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there have been delays in publishing SSSU information
on the status of Ukrainian agriculture in Ukrainian government-controlled areas. Post used MAPFU
data instead, as referenced. In this report, FAS/Kyiv cannot provide any production estimates for Russia-
occupied territories, except for the Crimean Peninsula, due to the need for more credible and verifiable
information. Because of the rapidly changing situation, this report provides a snapshot of the situation
accompanied by assumptions and estimates that were valid at the time of report writing.

General Outlook

The Russia-Ukraine conflict started in February 2022 and caused havoc for farmers and exporters of
bulk agricultural commodities, including oilseeds. The most significant issue was a breakdown in
commodity logistics from seaports in March to July 2022, resulting in the subsequent accumulation of
large stocks and spillover of Ukrainian commodities into neighboring EU countries. Some EU member
states introduced unilateral trade limitations, predominantly for oilseeds, that are still in place. The EU
also adopted the autonomous trade measures (ATMs) which provided trade liberalization for Ukraine,
suspending import duties, quotas, and trade defense measures on a temporary basis. The current ATM
will be in force until June 5, 2025, and contains an emergency brake mechanism for specific products.
The EU’s trade policy, coupled with geographic proximity, has made it a dominant destination for
oilseeds, vegetable oils, and meals.

Following the collapse of the BSGI, Ukraine regained its ability to independently operate its three Black
Sea ports (Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pyvdenny) in October 2023. This allowed for predictable and cost-
efficient logistics for bulk commodities, especially oilseeds, oils, and meals. Contacts stated improved
logistics have made Ukrainian farmers more confident in growing high yield, high volume crops such as
corn, which could affect the balance between grains and oilseeds in MY2025/26. Improved logistics also
enables more efficient exports of meals, especially sunflower meal, which is produced in large
quantities, with processors noting the potential positive effect on crush margins.
For MY2025/26 production areas, Post forecasts smaller rapeseed area due to drought conditions in
autumn 2024. Post forecasts sunflower areas down compared to its MY2024/25 estimate, as farmers
rotate away from the crop to limit the spread of diseases and loss of soil nutrients. Decreased sunflower
planting seed imports support this forecast. Post expects an increase in soybean area, as it is
consecutively cropped with corn. In addition, there will be increased demand from crushers, as they are
already lacking sunflower seeds to keep their facilities running through CY2025 as farmers continue to
withhold their stocks due to rising prices. This could precipitate increased production and exports of soy
oil and meal from Ukraine.
Oilseeds

Sunflower
Soybeans
Rapeseed

Historically, oilseed production has offered better profitability compared to grains. The Russia-Ukraine
conflict, which started in February 2022, caused havoc for exports of bulk agricultural commodities
from Ukraine. This subsequently translated into skyrocketing logistics costs, reducing farm-gate prices.
Under these circumstances, farmers tended to invest more into high-value oilseeds to stay afloat, with
sunflower being the prime choice.

According to available data, preliminary MY2024/25 production volumes are 10.9 MMT for sunflower,
6.6 MMT for soybeans, and 3.6 MMT for rapeseed. Post accepts these as the initial estimates in the
relevant PSD tables, except for sunflower, as Post notes that the SSSU generally underreports sunflower
production volumes. Therefore, Post’s initial production estimate for sunflower tends to be higher than
the official Ukraine number. Post could do a backward revision of all oilseed production numbers, based
on actual export volumes of both oilseeds and processed products (oils and meals).

MAPFU reported actual planted areas for winter crops for MY2025/26 (Table 1). Rapeseed areas
decreased by over 13 percent and total winter crop area decreased by over 6 percent.

Table 1: Winter Crop Areas

MY2025/26
1000 ha MY2024/25 MY2025/26
vs MY2024/25

Wheat 4,690 4,380 -6.6%

Barley 570 610 7.0%
Rye 70 70 0.0%
Rapeseed 1,250 1,080 -13.6%
Total Winter Crops 6,580 6,140 -6.7%
Source: MAPFU

While rapeseed offers good profitability for farmers, very dry soil conditions during the planting period
in Ukraine (September-October) likely caused a decrease in planted area, with Ukrainian farmers
weighing sub-optimum rapeseed planting conditions against the potential to allocate the excess areas for
spring crops (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Soil Moisture Anomaly Map
Sept 12, 2024 Oct 12, 2024

Source: USDA

Post’s estimates for MY2025/26 spring planting areas are based on the assumption that the total
production area (winter and spring combined) for all bulk commodity crops (grains and oilseeds) will
remain static as compared to the previous MY at slightly over 20 million ha (Table 2). Note that Post
uses USDA official numbers as the MY2024/25 reference area for sunflower, rather than from the
SSSU, as Post believes it better reflects the actual production area. This conclusion is based on volumes
of sunflower oil exports from Ukraine that imply higher-than-official sunflower production in-country.

Table 2: Area Estimates for MY2025/26, thousand ha

Area Total Winter** Spring Total %
MY2024/25* (Post Est.) (Post Est.) Change
Barley 1,400 610 900 1,470 5.0%
Corn 4,070 0 4,300 4,300 5.7%
Rye 70 70 0 70 0.0%
Wheat 4,870 4,380 150 4,530 -7.0%
Rapeseed 1,260 1,080 50 1,130 -10.3%
Soybean 2,700 0 3,000 3,000 11.1%
Sunflower Seed 6,200 0 6,100 6,100 -1.6%
Total 20,570 6,100 14,470 20,600
Source: *SSSU, sunflower seed and USDA official; **MAPFU

Post expects minimal spring rapeseed area based on historical trends. Sunflower seed imports point to
lower volumes available for spring 2025 planting as compared to the previous year (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Sunflower Seed for Sowing Imports to Ukraine, MT

Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC

* Official trade data by Trade Data Monitor is available through December 2024. Post is using unofficial import estimates
based on MAPFU data for January and February 2025.

Post believes sunflower production areas are on the decline, as farmers need to ensure adequate crop
rotations to avoid a productivity drop from both depleted soil nutrients and accumulated diseases (Figure
3). In addition, there may be increased competition for available spring area from corn (better yields and
improved logistics) and soy (lower production costs and high demand both from exporters and domestic
crushers). Increased soy area also tracks corn area growth, as, according to Vitaly Koval, Minister of
Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, “many farmers have recognized the benefits of diversifying crop
rotation with soybeans and corn. This follows the American model, where soybeans are planted after
corn.”
Figure 3: Oilseed Production Areas in Ukraine, 1,000 ha

Source: USDA Official

FAS/Kyiv forecasts MY2025/26 production areas for oilseeds as follows:

- Sunflower seeds – 6.1 million ha, a 2 percent decrease from Post’s MY2024/25 estimate
- Soybeans – 3.0 million ha, an 11 percent increase
- Rapeseed – 1.1 million ha, a 10 percent decrease

As there is a mix of crops planted in different seasons (e.g. winter and spring for rapeseed), Post uses
different yield estimate strategies. This season, Post estimated MY2025/26 winter rapeseed yield based
on the MY2008/09 pattern. The NDVI for August-November (covering the planting period before the
plants go dormant) for these MYs is very similar (Figure 4). Note that NDVI is a standardized measure
of vegetation. High values indicate healthier vegetation, while low values indicate low or no vegetation.
Figure 4: NDVI for Ukraine

Post estimates yields for soybeans, sunflower, and a fraction of spring rapeseed areas based on a 5-year
average (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Oilseed Yields, MT/ha

Source: USDA Official

FAS/Kyiv’s MY2025/26 production forecast is:

- Sunflower seeds – 13.7 MMT, a 5 percent increase against Post’s MY2024/25 estimate
- Soybeans – 7.2 MMT, a 9 percent increase against MY2024/25
- Rapeseed – 2.8 MMT, a 23 percent decrease against MY2024/25

Based on final export data for oilseeds and vegetable oils, FAS/Kyiv performed a backward revision of
MY2023/24 production estimates: sunflower seeds – 15.3 MMT, soybeans – 5.0 MMT, and rapeseed –
4.8 MMT.

Ukraine is a net exporter of bulk agricultural commodities, including all major grains and oilseeds. It
critically dependent on its access to ports and marine routes to ensure cost-efficient logistics for large
volumes of oilseeds, oils, and meals. Most export bandwidth is dedicated to grains (Figure 6). Oilseed
exports (beans/kernels, oils, and meals) fluctuate in line with available export capacity, including rail,
truck, and port channels.
Figure 6: Exports of Selected Commodities from Ukraine, MMT

Source: MAPFU
* Wheat, Barley, Corn, Soy, Rapeseed, Sunflower, Soy Oil, Sunflower Oil, Vegetable Meals

The EU has been an important market destination for Ukraine for a number of agricultural products
since the temporary suspension of import duties and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural exports, initially
set by Regulation 2022/870 of the European Parliament and the Council in July 2022. The EU’s
introduction of the ATMs in May 2024 retained an opening for Ukrainian oilseeds to the European
market. Over 80 percent of all rapeseed and sunflower seeds are exported to the EU (Figure 7).
Figure 7: Share of Oilseeds Exports from Ukraine to the EU

Source: Trade Data Monitor

Ukraine maintains export licenses for rapeseed and sunflower seed to Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia,
Hungary, and Poland, as these individual countries imposed unilateral export limitations. For more
details, see Annex 4 of Resolution #1481 (in Ukrainian).

MAPFU and industry contacts expect the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will become an
important market access factor for Ukrainian soy and soy crush products (meal and oil) entering the EU
market. For the purpose of this report, Post assumes that Ukraine will be able to ensure EUDR
compliance by the implementation date.

The only Ukrainian oilseed enjoying a substantial market outside of the EU is soy. At the beginning of
MY2024/25 (September-December 2024), approximately half of Ukraine’s total volume (1.7 MMT)
was exported to three markets: Türkiye (353,000 MT); Pakistan (271,000 MT); and Egypt (246,000
MT).

Based on production and domestic consumption estimates, FAS/Kyiv’s MY2025/26 export forecast is:

- Sunflower seeds – 300,000 MT, similar to Post’s MY2024/25 estimate

- Soybeans – 3 MMT, a 6 percent decrease against MY2024/25
- Rapeseed – 2 MMT, a 34 percent decrease against MY2024/25

Post forecasts low ending stocks for all oilseeds for both MY2025/26 and MY2024/25 due to
functioning export logistics.
PSD Data Statistics

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026

Market Year Begins Sep 2023 Sep 2024 Sep 2025
USDA USDA USDA
Ukraine New Post New Post New Post
Official Official Official
Area Planted (1000 HA) 6400 6400 6200 6200 0 6100
Area Harvested (1000 HA) 6400 6400 6200 6200 0 6100
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 845 845 176 131 0 151
Production (1000 MT) 15500 15300 13400 13000 0 13660
MY Imports (1000 MT) 20 20 30 20 0 22
Total Supply (1000 MT) 16365 16165 13606 13151 0 13833
MY Exports (1000 MT) 314 314 230 300 0 300
Crush (1000 MT) 15700 15620 13050 12600 0 13300
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 50 50 50 50 0 50
MT)
Feed Waste Dom. 125 50 125 50 0 50
Cons. (1000 MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT) 15875 15720 13225 12700 0 13400
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 176 131 151 151 0 133
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 16365 16165 13606 13151 0 13833
Yield (MT/HA) 2.4219 2.3906 2.1613 2.0968 0 2.2393

(1000 HA), (1000 MT), (MT/HA)

OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT: PSD Online Advanced Query

Oilseed, Soybean 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026
Market Year Begins Sep 2023 Sep 2024 Sep 2025
USDA USDA USDA
Ukraine New Post New Post New Post
Official Official Official
Area Planted (1000 HA) 2200 1842 2900 2706 0 3000
Area Harvested (1000 HA) 2000 1842 2900 2706 0 3000
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 221 221 110 109 0 266
Production (1000 MT) 5200 5000 7000 6606 0 7180
MY Imports (1000 MT) 1 1 2 2 0 2
Total Supply (1000 MT) 5422 5222 7112 6717 0 7448
MY Exports (1000 MT) 3262 3262 4200 3200 0 3000
Crush (1000 MT) 1800 1800 2200 3000 0 4000
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 0 1 0 1 0 1
MT)
Feed Waste Dom. 250 50 400 250 0 250
Cons. (1000 MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT) 2050 1851 2600 3251 0 4251
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 110 109 312 266 0 197
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 5422 5222 7112 6717 0 7448
Yield (MT/HA) 2.6 2.7144 2.4138 2.4412 0 2.3933

(1000 HA), (1000 MT), (MT/HA)

OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT: PSD Online Advanced Query

MY2024/25 Post estimates for soybean exports and crush are 24 percent lower and 36 percent higher,
respectively, than the USDA official numbers, as Ukrainian crushers indicated they will be using
soybeans to keep their facilities running until sunflower crush margins improve.
Oilseed, Rapeseed 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026
Market Year Begins Jul 2023 Jul 2024 Jul 2025
USDA USDA USDA
Ukraine New Post New Post New Post
Official Official Official
Area Planted (1000 HA) 1600 1435 1350 1259 0 1130
Area Harvested (1000 HA) 1600 1435 1350 1259 0 1130
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 2 2 2 13 0 13
Production (1000 MT) 4750 4770 3800 3576 0 2760
MY Imports (1000 MT) 7 7 30 8 0 7
Total Supply (1000 MT) 4759 4779 3832 3597 0 2780
MY Exports (1000 MT) 3702 3702 3220 3050 0 2000
Crush (1000 MT) 1050 1060 600 530 0 750
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 0 0 0 0 0 0
MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 5 4 5 4 0 4
MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT) 1055 1064 605 534 0 754
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 2 13 7 13 0 26
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 4759 4779 3832 3597 0 2780
Yield (MT/HA) 2.9688 3.324 2.8148 2.8403 0 2.4425

(1000 HA), (1000 MT), (MT/HA)

OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT: PSD Online Advanced Query

Oils

Sunflower Oil
Soybean Oil
Rapeseed Oil
Palm Oil

Without reliable statistics for the production of certain commodities (SSSU collects data but has
postponed its publications due to martial law), Post assumes monthly export volumes for vegetable oils
are equivalent to the total output of domestic crush facilities. According to industry sources, the
dynamics of sunflower oil production very closely correlate with its exports, as domestic consumption is
well below 10 percent of total production volume. Therefore, Post uses estimates for exportable
vegetable oil volumes to reverse-engineer an oilseed crush volume, which than is used to calculate a
meal output.

There are reports about Ukrainian crush facilities damaged by Russian missile and drone strikes, which
was especially acute in CY2022. There has been no recent official information about crush capacity,
though industry estimates it is between 20-22 MMT per year. In the last three MYs (MY2022/23 to
MY2024/25), there was an average annual crush of 17 MMT; therefore, Ukraine has excess crush
capacity. This caused fierce competition between crushers and exporters for available oilseed stocks.

At the time of the report writing, there had been a price rally for sunflower seeds starting at the
beginning of MY2024/25 (Figure 8). Due to an excess of crush capacity, processors started competing
with each other, and farmers were reluctant to sell their stocks as prices were increasing. According to
industry representatives, this caused a slump in crush margins for sunflower, and some crushers started
switching to soy. In addition, there is demand in the EU for soybean oil and meal, further incentivizing
soybean crush (Figures 10 and 13). Due to this dynamic, Post gradually increased soybean crush-to-
production ratio estimates both for MY2024/25 (45 percent) and MY2025/26 (56 percent), compared to
MY2023/24 (36 percent).
Figure 8: Domestic Oilseed Prices in Ukraine, UAH/MT (EXW)

Source: APK-Inform

Growing soybean oil exports are an additional argument for increased soybean crush estimates both for
MY2024/25 and MY2025/26 (Figure 9).
Figure 9: Soybean Oil Exports from Ukraine

Source: MAPFU

Based on MAPFU data, Ukraine exported approximately 2.4 MMT of sunflower oil since the beginning
of MY2025/26 (September 2024-February 2025). This oil is equivalent to approximately 5.5 MMT of
sunflower seeds. Given Post’s MY2024/25 total sunflower crush volume estimate of 12.6 MMT,
Ukrainian crushers and farmers still have about 7 MMT of sunflower seeds in stock until the end of the
current MY in August 2025. FAS/Kyiv could still downgrade the remaining sunflower crush volume and
increase soybean crush for MY2024/25, should sunflower crush margins deteriorate further.

FAS/Kyiv’s MY2025/26 production forecast is:

- Sunflower oil – 5.7 MMT, a 6 percent increase against Post’s MY2024/25 estimate
- Soybean oil – 734,000 MT, a 33 percent increase
- Rapeseed oil – 308,000 MT, a 42 percent increase

The EU remains the primary market for vegetable oils due to the ATMs (Figure 10). Exports of soybean
oil are predominantly tied to EU market demand.
Figure 10: Share of Vegetable Oil Exports from Ukraine to the EU

Source: Trade Data Monitor

For sunflower oil, over 45 percent of total exports (1.7 MMT) in the beginning of MY2024/25
(September-December 2024) were shipped to various destinations outside of the EU. The second most
important market was India, with over 19 percent of total exports (336,000 MT). Ukraine also supplied
notable volumes (293,000 MT) to Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Türkiye, and Lebanon.

Before the Russa-Ukraine war, Ukraine traditionally transshipped a portion of its palm oil imports to
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, and Russia. Currently, these destinations have no economically or
physically viable logistics routes from Ukraine. The only transshipment market remaining is Moldova,
which imports around 200 MT annually. Therefore, Post assumes Ukraine’s imports of palm oil are
roughly equivalent to its domestic consumption. Ukraine sources over 90 percent of its palm oil from
Indonesia and Malaysia; the remaining volume is transshipped through the EU.

Domestic demand for palm oil correlates with domestic oil prices, primarily sunflower oil, as domestic
food producers tend to replace more expensive sunflower oil with palm. This allows them to avoid price
hikes, especially with domestic consumers becoming price-sensitive due to decreasing incomes,
especially in heavily war-affected areas. Sunflower oil prices have been rising since the beginning of
MY2024/25 (Figure 11). FAS/Kyiv uses this a justification for its increased MY2024/25 palm oil import
estimate. Post decreased MY2025/26 imports under the assumption of sunflower oil price normalization.
Figure 11: Domestic Price Dynamics for Sunflower Oil

Source: Information Agency APK Inform

Post estimates sunflower oil and palm oil food consumption based on the number of refugees who have
left Ukraine, per the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The number of registered
refugees dropped from its peak of 8.1 million in MY2022/23 to 6.5 million in MY2023/24, to its current
6.9 million.

Post’s forecast for MY2025/26 sunflower oil food consumption is similar to its MY2024/25 estimate,
assuming that Ukrainian refugees will slowly return home and food consumption of palm oil decreases.
On increased refugee outflows and substitution with palm oil, Post lowered its MY2024/25 sunflower
domestic consumption estimate by 1 percent compared to MY2023/24.

FAS/Kyiv’s MY2025/26 export forecast is:

- Sunflower oil – 5.2 MMT, a 6 percent increase against Post’s MY2024/25 estimate
- Soybean oil – 730,000 MT, a 33 percent increase against MY2024/25
- Rapeseed oil – 300,000 MT, a 41 percent increase against MY2024/25

Post forecasts MY2025/26 palm oil imports at 105,000 MT, a 5 percent decrease against MY2024/25.
PSD Data Statistics

Oil, Sunflowerseed 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026

Market Year Begins Sep 2023 Sep 2024 Sep 2025
USDA USDA USDA
Ukraine New Post New Post New Post
Official Official Official
Crush (1000 MT) 15700 15620 13050 12600 0 13300
Extr. Rate, 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0 0.43
999.9999 (PERCENT)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 76 76 134 55 0 54
Production (1000 MT) 6751 6717 5613 5419 0 5719
MY Imports (1000 MT) 1 1 0 0 0 0
Total Supply (1000 MT) 6828 6794 5747 5474 0 5773
MY Exports (1000 MT) 6264 6264 5200 4950 0 5250
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 30 30 30 30 0 30
MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 400 445 425 440 0 438
MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 0 0 0 0 0 0
MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT) 430 475 455 470 0 468
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 134 55 92 54 0 55
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 6828 6794 5747 5474 0 5773

(1000 MT), (PERCENT)

OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT: PSD Online Advanced Query

Oil, Soybean 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026
Market Year Begins Sep 2023 Sep 2024 Sep 2025
USDA USDA USDA
Ukraine New Post New Post New Post
Official Official Official
Crush (1000 MT) 1800 1800 2200 3000 0 4000
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 (PERCENT) 0.1833 0.1833 0.1832 0.1833 0 0.1835
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 33 33 16 17 0 16
Production (1000 MT) 330 330 403 550 0 734
MY Imports (1000 MT) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Supply (1000 MT) 363 363 419 567 0 750
MY Exports (1000 MT) 345 345 400 550 0 730
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 0 0 0 0 0 0
MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT) 2 1 1 1 0 1
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 0 0 0 0 0 0
MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT) 2 1 1 1 0 1
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 16 17 18 16 0 19
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 363 363 419 567 0 750

(1000 MT), (PERCENT)

OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT: PSD Online Advanced Query

In MY2024/25, Post’s estimates for soybean oil production and exports are 36 percent higher and 38
percent higher, respectively, than the USDA official numbers, as Ukrainian crushers were using
soybeans to keep their facilities running until their sunflower crush margins improved.
Oil, Rapeseed 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026
Market Year Begins Jul 2023 Jul 2024 Jul 2025
USDA USDA USDA
Ukraine New Post New Post New Post
Official Official Official
Crush (1000 MT) 1050 1060 600 530 0 750
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 (PERCENT) 0.4076 0.4075 0.41 0.4094 0 0.4107
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 2 2 0 5 0 5
Production (1000 MT) 428 432 246 217 0 308
MY Imports (1000 MT) 1 1 0 0 0 0
Total Supply (1000 MT) 431 435 246 222 0 313
MY Exports (1000 MT) 428 428 240 215 0 300
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 1 1 1 1 0 1
MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT) 2 1 2 1 0 1
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 0 0 0 0 0 0
MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT) 3 2 3 2 0 2
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 0 5 3 5 0 11
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 431 435 246 222 0 313

(1000 MT), (PERCENT)

OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT: PSD Online Advanced Query

Oil, Palm 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026
Market Year Begins Jan 2024 Jan 2025 Jan 2026
USDA New USDA New USDA New
Ukraine
Official Post Official Post Official Post
Area Planted (1000 HA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Area Harvested (1000 HA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trees (1000 TREES) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 11 11 13 9 0 5
Production (1000 MT) 0 0 0 0 0 0
MY Imports (1000 MT) 108 108 90 110 0 105
Total Supply (1000 MT) 119 119 103 119 0 110
MY Exports (1000 MT) 1 0 0 1 0 1
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 0 5 0 5 0 5
MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 MT) 105 105 90 108 0 100
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 0 0 0 0 0 0
MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT) 105 110 90 113 0 105
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 13 9 13 5 0 4
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 119 119 103 119 0 110
Yield (MT/HA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

(1000 HA), (1000 TREES), (1000 MT), (MT/HA)

OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT: PSD Online Advanced Query

Post’s MY2024/25 palm oil estimates for imports and domestic consumption are 22 percent and 26
percent higher, respectively, than the USDA official numbers. This is based on the assumption that
Ukraine will slightly increase palm oil consumption due to high sunflower oil prices.
Meals

Sunflower Meal
Soybean Meal
Rapeseed Meal

Vegetable meals are byproducts of oilseed crush; therefore, their production and exports mirror those of
vegetable oils.

FAS/Kyiv’s MY2025/26 production forecast is:

- Sunflower meal – 5.5 MMT, a 6 percent increase against Post’s MY2024/25 estimate
- Soybean meal – 3.2 MMT, a 33 percent increase against MY2024/25
- Rapeseed meal – 426,000 MT, a 42 percent increase against MY2024/25

The current decrease of in sunflower crush volumes and increase in soybean crush is narrowing the price
gap between the meals (Figure 12). However, the abundance and lower price of sunflower meal makes it
a staple for feed ratios (Table 3).

Figure 12: Domestic Sunflower and Soybean Meal Prices in Ukraine, UAH/MT (EXW)

Source: Information Agency APK Inform

FAS/Kyiv considers MY2020/21 as the reference pre-war year for estimating consumption for
subsequent MYs. The decreased consumption in subsequent MYs reflect decreasing animal numbers.
MY2023/24 had a hike in meal consumption, but FAS/Kyiv believes that this was not connected with
actual increased feed consumption, but attributable to waste resulting from increased crush and the
inability to maintain efficient and timely exports of meals. Note that Post keeps ending stocks for all
vegetable meals at minimum levels, as they have a fairly short shelf life. Post assumes the volumes that
have not been exported or put into feed consumption will eventually be destroyed due to loss of quality.

Table 3: Total Meal Consumption in Ukraine (SME Equivalent), 1000 MT

MY2020/21 MY2021/22 MY2022/23 MY2023/24 MY2024/25 MY2025/26
Sunflower
Meal 900 934 1,134 1,267 1,201 1,201
Soybean Meal 600 59 55 900 150 100
Rapeseed
Meal 23 21 4 122 50 100
Total 1,524 1,014 1,192 2,289 1,401 1,401
Source: FAS/Kyiv Estimate

The EU also remains the primary market for vegetable meals, similar to oilseeds (Figure 13).

Figure 13: Share of Vegetable Meal Exports from Ukraine to the EU

Source: Trade Data Monitor

FAS/Kyiv’s MY2025/26 export forecast is:

- Sunflower meal – 3.7 MMT, a 9 percent increase against Post’s MY2024/25 estimate
- Soybean meal – 3.0 MT, a 30 percent increase against MY2024/25
- Rapeseed meal – 280,000 MT, a 22 percent increase against MY2024/25

Regarding the distribution of exports of individual meals for the beginning of MY2024/25 (September-
December 2024 for soybeans and sunflower and July-December 2024 for rapeseed):

- Around 78 percent of the total soybean meal export volume (33,700 MT) was shipped to the EU,
and the reminder was split between a large number of individual destinations.
- Sunflower meal exports (1.3 MMT) were split between the EU, which purchased over 40 percent
(168,000 MT) and China, with 34 percent (140,000 MT).
- Rapeseed meal was almost exclusively exported to Türkiye (7,000 MT).
PSD Data Statistics

Meal, Sunflowerseed 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026

Market Year Begins Sep 2023 Sep 2024 Sep 2025
USDA USDA USDA
Ukraine New Post New Post New Post
Official Official Official
Crush (1000 MT) 15700 15620 13050 12600 0 13300
Extr. Rate, 0.413 0.413 0.413 0.413 0 0.413
999.9999 (PERCENT)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 247 247 566 158 0 163
Production (1000 MT) 6484 6451 5390 5204 0 5493
MY Imports (1000 MT) 13 13 10 1 0 1
Total Supply (1000 MT) 6744 6711 5966 5363 0 5657
MY Exports (1000 MT) 4653 4653 4100 3400 0 3700
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 0 0 0 0 0 0
MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 0 0 0 0 0 0
MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 1525 1900 1500 1800 0 1800
MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT) 1525 1900 1500 1800 0 1800
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 566 158 366 163 0 157
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 6744 6711 5966 5363 0 5657

(1000 MT), (PERCENT)

OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT: PSD Online Advanced Query

Post’s MY2024/25 sunflower meal export and feed consumption estimates are 17 percent lower and 20
percent higher, respectively, than the USDA official number, based on feed estimates.
Meal, Soybean 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026
Market Year Begins Sep 2023 Sep 2024 Sep 2025
USDA USDA USDA
Ukraine New Post New Post New Post
Official Official Official
Crush (1000 MT) 1800 1800 2200 3000 0 4000
Extr. Rate, 0.79 0.79 0.7905 0.7907 0 0.79
999.9999 (PERCENT)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 326 326 402 151 0 75
Production (1000 MT) 1422 1422 1739 2372 0 3160
MY Imports (1000 MT) 4 3 3 2 0 2
Total Supply (1000 MT) 1752 1751 2144 2525 0 3237
MY Exports (1000 MT) 700 700 850 2300 0 3000
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 0 0 0 0 0 0
MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 0 0 0 0 0 0
MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 650 900 785 150 0 100
MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT) 650 900 785 150 0 100
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 402 151 509 75 0 137
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 1752 1751 2144 2525 0 3237

(1000 MT), (PERCENT)

OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT: PSD Online Advanced Query

Post’s MY2024/25 soybean meal production and export estimates are 36 percent and 171 percent higher,
respectively, than the USDA official number due to growing soybean crush as the result of the
decreasing crush margin for sunflower.
Meal, Rapeseed 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026
Market Year Begins Jul 2023 Jul 2024 Jul 2025
USDA USDA USDA
Ukraine New Post New Post New Post
Official Official Official
Crush (1000 MT) 1050 1060 600 530 0 750
Extr. Rate, 0.5705 0.5708 0.5683 0.5679 0 0.568
999.9999 (PERCENT)
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 0 0 15 10 0 11
Production (1000 MT) 599 605 341 301 0 426
MY Imports (1000 MT) 2 2 2 0 0 0
Total Supply (1000 MT) 601 607 358 311 0 437
MY Exports (1000 MT) 426 426 230 230 0 280
Industrial Dom. Cons. (1000 0 0 0 0 0 0
MT)
Food Use Dom. Cons. (1000 0 0 0 0 0 0
MT)
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. (1000 160 171 100 70 0 140
MT)
Total Dom. Cons. (1000 MT) 160 171 100 70 0 140
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 15 10 28 11 0 17
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 601 607 358 311 0 437

(1000 MT), (PERCENT)

OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT: PSD Online Advanced Query

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