Probability and Statistics

CEC217

Dr. Tarık Adnan

Email: [email protected]
Lecture
Office: Kat.1, # 104
Permutation
• The permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of
objects.
• Consider the three letters a, b, and c. The possible
permutations are abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, and cba. Thus, we
see that there are 6 distinct arrangements.
• Using Rule 2 in the previous slide, we could arrive at the
answer 6 without actually listing the different orders by the
following arguments:
• There are 𝑛1 = 3 choices for the first position. There are always 𝑛2 = 2 choices
for the second position. No matter which two letters are chosen for the first
two positions, there is only 𝑛3 = 1 choice for the last position, giving a total of

𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛3 = 3 2 1 = 6 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 2
 Permutation (Cont.)
• In general, 𝑛 distinct objects can be arranged in
𝑛 𝑛 − 1 𝑛 − 2 … (3)(2)(1) ways

• The notation of the previous calculation is:

• Hence,

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Permutation (Cont.)
• The number of permutations of the four letters a, b, c, and d
will be 4! = 24.
• Let’s consider the number of permutations that are possible by
taking two letters at a time from four. These would be ab, ac,
ad, ba, bc, bd, ca, cb, cd, da, db, and dc.
• Using Rule 1 again, we have two positions to fill, with 𝑛1
= 4 choices for the first and then 𝑛2 = 3 choices for the
second, for a total of 𝑛1 𝑛2 = (4)(3) = 12 permutations

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Permutation (Cont.)
Example:
• In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and service) will
be given to a class of 25 graduate students in a statistics
department. If each student can receive almost one award, how
many possible selections are there?
Solution : Since the awards are distinguishable, it is a
permutation problem. The total number of sample points is

=
Or in other words,
5 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2)
 Partitioning:

Example 1
• Consider the set 𝑎, 𝑒, 𝑖, 𝑜, 𝑢 , what are the possible partitions
into two cells (i.e., subsets) in which the first cell contains 4
elements and the second cell 1 element?: there are 5 ways to
partition the set

1st cell 2nd cell 1st cell 2nd cell 6

Cont.

• The number of partitions for this illustration is denoted by the

symbol

where the top number represents the total number of

elements and the bottom numbers represent the number of
elements going into each cell.

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Example 2
• In how many ways can 7 speakers be assigned to 1 triple and
2 double hotel rooms during a conference?

Solution
• The total number of possible partitions would be

1 triple room 2 double rooms

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Combinations:
• Sometimes, we are interested in the number of ways of
selecting 𝒓 objects from 𝒏 with no concern to order. These
selections are called combinations
• A combination is actually a partition with two cells, the one
cell containing the 𝒓 objects selected and the other cell
containing the (𝒏 − 𝒓) objects that remain. The number of
such combinations, denoted by:

is usually shortened to since the number of

elements in the second cell must be 𝒏 − 𝒓

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 Cont.

Example
• A young boy asks his mother to get 5 PlayStation CDs from his
collection of 15 CDs (10 strategy games and 5 sports games).
How many ways are there that his mother can get 3 strategy
games and 2 sports games?

Solution: The number of ways of selecting 3 CDs from 10 is:

Step 1:
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 Cont.
• The number of ways of selecting 2 CDs from 5 is:

Step 2:

• Using the multiplication rule (Rule 2.1) with 𝑛1 = 120 and

𝑛2 = 10, we have (120)(10) = 1200 ways.

Rule 2.1

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Example
• How many different letter arrangements can be made from
the letters in the word STATISTICS?

• Here we have 10 total letters, with 2 letters (𝑆, 𝑇) appearing

3 times each, letter 𝐼 appearing twice, and letters A and C
appearing once each

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 Example
• In a medical study, patients are classified in 8 ways according to
whether they have blood type AB+ , AB−, A+ , A−, B+ , B−, O+,
or O−, and also according to whether their blood pressure is
low, normal, or high.
Find the number of ways in which a patient can be classified.

Solution:

• With 𝑛1 = 8 blood types and 𝑛2 = 3 classifications of blood

pressure, the multiplication rule gives 𝑛1 𝑛2 = 8 3 = 24
classications
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Example
1- How many distinct permutations can be made from the letters
of the word COLUMNS?
2- How many of these permutations start with the letter M?

Solution:
1- The distinct permutations can be calculated by:
7! = 5040 permutations

2- Since the first letter must be M, the remaining 6 letters can be

arranged in 6! = 720 ways.
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Probability of an Event
• Event Likelihood in Statistical Experiments Likelihood= benzerlik,
ihtimal, olasılık, olabilirlik

- Evaluating the likelihood of an event using real numbers.

- These numbers are known as weights or probabilities. Occurrence = vuku,
- Probability scale ranges from 0 (unlikely) to 1 (very likely). bulunma, meydana gelme

• Probability Assignment in Sample Space

- Assign probabilities to every element in the sample space.

- Total sum of all probabilities must equal 1.

• Determining Probability Values

- High probability (close to 1): Indicates high likelihood of the
sample point occurring.
- Low probability (close to 0): Assigned to sample points with
low likelihood of occurrence. 15
Cont.
• To find the probability of an event 𝐴, we sum all the probabilities
assigned to the sample points in A. This sum is called the
probability of 𝐴 and is denoted by 𝑃(𝐴).
Note that B & C events are
not related to each other.
Hence, they are mutually
exclusive [karşılıklı hariç ,
ayrışık]

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 Example
• A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least one
head occurs?

Solution:
- The sample space for this experiment is
- If the coin is balanced, each of these outcomes is equally
likely to occur. Therefore, we assign a probability of 𝒘 to
each sample point. Then 4𝑤 = 1, or 𝑤 = 1/4.
- If A represents the event of at least 1 head occurring, then

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 Example
• A die (zar) is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice
as likely to occur as an odd number. If 𝐸 is the event that a
number less than 4 occurs on a single toss of the die, find 𝑃(𝐸).
Solution:
• The sample space is 𝑆 = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 . We assign a
probability of 𝑤 to each odd number and a probability of 2𝑤 to
each even number.
• Since the sum of the probabilities must be 1, we have 9𝑤 = 1
or 𝑤 = 1/9. Hence, probabilities of 1/9 and 2/9 are assigned
to each odd and even number, respectively. Therefore,

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 Example
• In a dice game, let 𝑨 be the event that an even number turns up
and let 𝑩 be the event that a number divisible by 3 occurs.
- Assume that the even number is twice as likely to occur as an
odd number. Find 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵).

Solution:
• For the events 𝐴 = {2, 4, 6} and 𝐵 = {3, 6}, we have
𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = {2, 3, 4, 6} 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {6}.

• By assigning a probability of 1/9 to each odd number and 2/9 to

each even number, we have

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Cont.

• If the sample space for an experiment contains 𝑁 elements, all

of which are equally likely to occur, we assign a probability
equal to 1/𝑁 to each of the 𝑁 points.
• The probability of any event 𝐴 containing 𝑛 of these 𝑁 sample
points is then the ratio of the number of elements in 𝐴 to the
number of elements in 𝑆.
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Example
• A statistics class for engineers consists of 25 industrial,
10 mechanical, 10 electrical, and 8 civil engineering
students. If a person is randomly selected by the lecturer
to answer a question, find the probability that the student
chosen is:
- (a) an industrial engineering major,
- (b) a civil engineering or an electrical engineering major.

Solution?
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 Solution:
• Let’s denote by 𝐼: industrial , 𝑀, 𝐸, and 𝐶 the students majoring
, mechanical, electrical, and civil engineering, respectively. The
total number of students in the class is 53, all of whom are
equally likely to be selected.
(a) Since 25 of the 53 students are majoring in industrial
engineering, the probability of event 𝐼, selecting an industrial
engineering major at random, is

(b) Since 18 of the 53 students are civil or electrical engineering

majors, it follows that

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Thank you
Feel free to ask questions

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