Required Report: Required - Public Distribution Date: April 15, 2025
Report Number: PK2025-0005
Report Name: Sugar Annual
Country: Pakistan
Post: Islamabad
Report Category: Sugar
Prepared By: Waqas Farooq
Approved By: Christopher Rittgers
Report Highlights:
Sugar production in 2025/26 is projected to reach 6.6 million tons, which is 13.7 percent higher than the
2024/25 estimated production. This increase is based on expectations for improved sugar content and
average cane yield. With population growth and increased demand from the food processing sector,
some growth in sugar consumption is anticipated. Given the expected tight supply situation and decline
in stocks, the government is unlikely to allow exports, and the export forecast for 2025/26 is only 50,000
tons.
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY
STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY
Production:
Sugarcane production in 2025/26 is projected to reach 83.5 million metric tons, a four percent increase
compared to the 2024/25 estimate. This expected growth is based on a five-year average yield of 69
metric tons per hectare and average sucrose recovery. During most of the 2024/25 crushing season,
farmers received below average prices of around $34 per ton. Toward the end of the season when
supplies dwindled, prices increased to $40 per ton. The lower prices received for the 2024/25 crop,
reduced returns, which will discourage significant expansion of 2025/26 area. In addition, as of early
April, irrigation water supplies were at critically low levels, and rainfall will be needed to replenish
water storage levels. The current dry conditions are another major factor limiting sugarcane area
expansion in 2025/26.
During 2024/25, production in Punjab and Sindh declined due to abnormally high temperatures in May
and below-normal rainfall throughout the growing season. These conditions negatively impacted the
yield of the 2024/25 crop, reducing cane output.
Sugarcane production is primarily concentrated in the Punjab and Sindh provinces, which contribute 67
percent and 26 percent, respectively. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) accounts for most of the remainder.
More than half of sugarcane area is in Bahawalpur in Punjab and Sukkur in Sindh. Similarly, almost all
cane crushing mills are in Punjab and Sindh.
During the 2024/25 collection season, farmers encountered significant challenges in marketing their
crops, particularly at the start of the crushing season. Long queues at mills caused delays in delivery.
Farmers lacking transportation equipment were forced to sell their cane to agents at below market prices.
Additionally, delayed payments from mill owners remained a chronic issue, leaving many farmers still
awaiting payments as the crushing season drew to a close in early April 2025.
An estimated 10 percent of total cane production is diverted for making jaggery (Gur) and planting seed.
Table 1: Sugarcane Production Areas
Zones Sugarcane Area Province
Indus Delta Thatta , Badin Sindh
Southern irrigated plain Rahim Yar Khan, Punjab
Sukhur, Larkana, Khairpur, Sindh
Gotki
Northen Irrigated Plains Faisalabad, Jhang, Chiniot, Punjab,
Gujranwala, Sargodha.
Peshawar and Mardan, KPK
Charsada
Sandy Deserts Muzaffargarh, Minawali Punjab
Sulaiman Piedmont DI Khan, DG Khan KPK, Punjab
Figure 1: Sugarcane Production by Province
1%
6%
26%
67%
Punjab Sindh KP Baluchistan
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and Sugar Mills Association (PSMA)
Figure 2: Cane Crushing by Province
5%
28%
67%
Punjab Sindh KPK
Source: Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA)
Policy:
The government is working to reduce subsidies and transition to market-based pricing instead of
maintaining support prices. This marked a significant policy change for sugarcane in the 2024/25
season, when neither the federal government nor the Punjab government announced a support price, a
departure from the longstanding practice. Only the Sindh provincial government set a minimum
sugarcane price of 425 rupees per 40 kg (approximately $38 per ton).
Sugar is considered an essential commodity in Pakistan, with provincial governments overseeing its
pricing and supply to ensure stability and affordability. Provincial authorities also restrict sugar mills to
sourcing sugarcane from designated areas and control procurement quantities. This extensive control at
the provincial level aims to maintain a steady production flow and protect local farmers. Nonetheless,
price fluctuations and supply shortages have still characterized the market. The sugar market is also
fraught with inefficiencies and vested interests. As mentioned above, over the past year, the government
has gradually reduced its direct involvement in the sugarcane market, signaling a trend toward minimal
intervention in price-setting. This shift is expected to extend into the 2025/26 season. However,
authorities are expected to remain engaged with the industry to ensure price stability.
Table 2: Sugar Cane Production, Supply and Distribution (1,000 HA), (1000 MT)
Sugar Cane for Centrifugal 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026
Market Year Begins Oct 2023 Oct 2024 Oct 2025
Pakistan USDA New USDA New USDA New
Official Post Official Post Official Post
Area Planted (1000 HA) 1,175 1,175 1,210 1,210 - 1,210
Area Harvested (1000 HA) 1,175 1,175 1,210 1,210 - 1,210
Production (1000 MT) 81,500 81,500 83,500 80,000 - 83,500
Total Supply (1000 MT) 81,500 81,500 83,500 80,000 - 83,500
Utilization for Sugar (1000 MT) 81,500 81,500 83,500 80,000 - 83,500
Utilization for Alcohol (1000
0 0 0 0 - 0
MT)
Total Utilization (1000 MT) 81,500 81,500 83,500 80,000 - 83,500
OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT: PSD Online Advanced Query
Table 3: Sugarcane Minimum Support Price (MSP) by Province ($/Ton)
Year Punjab Sindh KPK
2019-20 29.7 30.0 29.7
2020-21 28.4 28.7 28.4
2021-22 24.9 25.1 24.9
2022-23 26.5 26.7 26.5
2023-24 36.0 38.2 36.0
2024-25 0 36.0 0
Source: Provincial Agriculture Departments and PSMA
SUGAR, CENTRIFUGAL
Production:
Due to expectations for the increase in cane production, sugar production is forecast to increase to 6.6
million tons during 2025/26, which is 13 percent above the 2024/25 estimate. This increase assumes
average sucrose recovery rates and cane yields.
The 2024/25 output estimate is decreased due to the updated lower sugarcane production estimate and
due to below average sucrose recovery. Total sugar production from November 16, 2024, to March 1,
2025, was an estimated 5.4 million tons, compared to 6.05 million tons during the same period last
season. Additionally, the low price of sugarcane prompted a larger portion of the crop to be diverted for
jaggery production. As in recent seasons, sugar mills’ delayed procurement led more farmers to sell cane
in local markets for unrefined sugar production.
Consumption:
Sugar consumption is projected to increase slightly to 6.8 million tons in the 2025/26 period. This steady
growth is driven by population increases and rising demand from the food processing industry. Sugar is
primarily consumed at the household level for daily use, but it also used for beverages and
confectionaries, with smaller shares used in the dairy and pharmaceutical sectors.
Trade:
With expectations for tight supplies and declining stocks in 2025/26, exports are forecast to be minimal.
To ensure domestic price stability, the government will continue to control exports.
During the early months of the 2024/25 marketing year, sugar exports contributed to an increase in
domestic retail prices. Although supplies were closely monitored by the Sugar Advisory Board and the
Cane Commissioner’s Office, the exports and surge in local consumption during Ramadan led to higher
prices in March/April 2025. The government set a notional price ceiling, but prices remained above that
price as of mid-April.
The export estimate for 2024/25 has been revised upwards to 700,000 tons, reflecting the quantity of
exports during Oct/Jan. In March 2025, the government announced that no further sugar exports would
be allowed for the remainder of the 2024/25 marketing year.
No sugar imports are forecast for 2025/26, as domestic supplies are expected to be sufficient. However,
a clearer picture will emerge by June, once final production and stock estimates become available.
Figure 3: Refined Sugar Exports (1,000 Tons)
300 279
250
200
166
150 125
100
50
50
0.18
0
Oct-2024 Nov-2024 Dec-2024 Jan-2025 Feb-2025
Stocks:
With expectations for growth in domestic consumption and a slight rise in cane sugar production during
2025/26, stocks are forecast to decline to 1.76 million tons.
Policy:
As a vital staple, the government continues to focus on maintaining steady sugar supplies and prices. In
addition, to support low-income households, the government provides targeted subsidies. Under this
scheme, subsidized sugar is sold at around $0.43 per kilogram at government operated outlets, while the
prevailing market price is roughly $0.61 per kilogram.
In 2024/25, the government took several steps to reduce underreporting and to curb tax evasion. For
example, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) installed surveillance cameras to remotely monitor sugar
mills’ cane intake and sugar output, officers have been stationed at mill sites, and all the mills are
subject to random inspections.
Figure 4: Sugar Price ($/MT)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Table 4: Sugar Production, Supply and Distribution (1,000 MT)
Sugar, Centrifugal 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026
Market Year Begins Oct 2023 Oct 2024 Oct 2025
Pakistan USDA New USDA New USDA New
Official Post Official Post Official Post
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 3,472 3,472 3,492 3,392 - 1,952
Beet Sugar Production (1000 MT) 60 60 60 60 - 60
Cane Sugar Production (1000 MT) 6,500 6,500 6,800 5,800 - 6,600
Total Sugar Production (1000 MT) 6,560 6,560 6,860 5,860 - 6,660
Raw Imports (1000 MT) 0 0 0 0 - 0
Refined Imp. (Raw Val) (1000 MT) 10 10 0 0 - 0
Total Imports (1000 MT) 10 10 0 0 - 0
Total Supply (1000 MT) 10,042 10,042 10,352 9,252 - 8,612
Raw Exports (1000 MT) - - - - - -
Refined Exp. (Raw Val) (1000 MT) 200 300 150 700 - 50
Total Exports (1000 MT) 200 300 150 700 - 50
Human Dom. Consumption (1000 6,350 6,350 6,600 6,600 - 6,800
MT)
Other Disappearance (1000 MT) 0 0 0 0 - 0
Total Use (1000 MT) 6,350 6,350 6,600 6,600 - 6,800
Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 3,492 3,392 3,602 1,952 - 1,762
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 10,042 10,042 10,352 9,252 - 8,612
OFFICIAL DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT: PSD Online Advanced Query
Table 5: Retail Sugar Prices ($ /Kg)
Months 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
January 0.48 0.52 0.41 0.35 0.56 0.58
February 0.50 0.52 0.39 0.35 0.56 0.58
March 0.51 0.56 0.38 0.38 0.53 0.65
April 0.51 0.55 0.39 0.45 0.53
May 0.51 0.55 0.37 0.45 0.53
June 0.51 0.56 0.37 0.45 0.53
July 0.53 0.58 0.37 0.51 0.53
August 0.59 0.60 0.41 0.56 0.53
September 0.61 0.61 0.42 0.60 0.53
October 0.62 0.59 0.39 0.54 0.53
November 0.62 0.55 0.43 0.51 0.56
December 0.52 0.52 0.44 0.52 0.57
Average 0.54 0.56 0.40 0.47 0.57
Dollar $=Rs.160 $=Rs.176 $= Rs.226 $= Rs.283 $=Rs.278 $=Rs. 278
Source: Pakistan Bureau of statistics and Agriculture Market Information System (AMIS)
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