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TB Modeling Report Chittagong

This report presents a mathematical modeling of Tuberculosis (TB) among smokers and non-smokers in Chittagong using a compartmental SEIR model. The findings indicate that smokers experience higher infection rates and longer stabilization periods compared to non-smokers, highlighting the need for targeted healthcare interventions. Simulation results demonstrate the dynamics of TB transmission, emphasizing the importance of addressing smoking as a risk factor.

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9 views3 pages

TB Modeling Report Chittagong

This report presents a mathematical modeling of Tuberculosis (TB) among smokers and non-smokers in Chittagong using a compartmental SEIR model. The findings indicate that smokers experience higher infection rates and longer stabilization periods compared to non-smokers, highlighting the need for targeted healthcare interventions. Simulation results demonstrate the dynamics of TB transmission, emphasizing the importance of addressing smoking as a risk factor.

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Mathematical Modeling of Asymptotes

of Tuberculosis Among Smokers and


Non-Smokers in Chittagong
1. Introduction
This report explores the mathematical modeling of Tuberculosis (TB) among smokers and
non-smokers in Chittagong. TB remains a serious health concern and this model helps to
understand its dynamics and long-term behavior.

2. Model Description
We use a compartmental SEIR model for both smokers and non-smokers, capturing
transitions between Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered states. Smokers are
assumed to have higher transmission and lower recovery rates.

3. Model Equations
The differential equations used are:

Smokers: dSₛ/dt = -βₛ*Sₛ*Iₛ, dEₛ/dt = βₛ*Sₛ*Iₛ - σ*Eₛ, dIₛ/dt = σ*Eₛ - γₛ*Iₛ - δₛ*Iₛ, dRₛ/dt =
γₛ*Iₛ

Non-Smokers: dSₙ/dt = -βₙ*Sₙ*Iₙ, dEₙ/dt = βₙ*Sₙ*Iₙ - σ*Eₙ, dIₙ/dt = σ*Eₙ - γₙ*Iₙ - δₙ*Iₙ,
dRₙ/dt = γₙ*Iₙ

4. Parameter Table
Parameter Description Smokers Non-Smokers
β Transmission rate 0.6 0.3
σ Exposure to 0.2 0.2
infection rate
γ Recovery rate 0.1 0.2
δ Death/removal rate 0.1 0.05

5. Simulation Results
The following graph shows the TB infection curves over time for both smokers and non-
smokers:
6. Analysis
Smokers reach a higher infection peak (~18%) at around day 33, while non-smokers peak
(~10%) earlier around day 25. Smokers also take longer (~90 days) to stabilize.

7. MATLAB Simulation Script


Below is the MATLAB code used for simulating the SEIR model:

function tb_simulation
tspan = [0 100];
y0 = [0.9, 0.05, 0.05, 0];
params_smokers = [0.6, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1];
params_nonsmokers = [0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.05];

[t, y_smokers] = ode45(@(t, y) seir(t, y, params_smokers), tspan, y0);


[t, y_nonsmokers] = ode45(@(t, y) seir(t, y, params_nonsmokers), tspan, y0);

figure;
plot(t, y_smokers(:, 3), 'r'); hold on;
plot(t, y_nonsmokers(:, 3), 'b');
legend('Infected Smokers', 'Infected Non-Smokers');
grid on;
end

function dydt = seir(t, y, params)


beta = params(1); sigma = params(2); gamma = params(3); delta = params(4);
S = y(1); E = y(2); I = y(3); R = y(4);
dS = -beta * S * I;
dE = beta * S * I - sigma * E;
dI = sigma * E - gamma * I - delta * I;
dR = gamma * I;
dydt = [dS; dE; dI; dR];
end

8. Conclusion
The mathematical model shows that TB spreads more aggressively among smokers in
Chittagong. Early intervention and targeted healthcare policies for smokers can significantly
reduce the burden of TB.

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