Group members:
1. Nguyen Tran Lien Nhi - 2212255033
2. Ngo Le Hao Nhien - 2212255036
3. Cao Minh Anh - 2215255072
4. Ho Xuan Nguyen - 2213255061
5. Nguyen Le Thao Phuong - 2212255040
6. Vo Kieu My - 2215255073
International Marketing Environment Analysis
I. President Donald Trump’s Recent Policies
According to The White House (2025), former President Donald Trump has introduced a series
of policies aimed at addressing national security concerns which particularly includes the points
below:
1. Declaring a National Emergency: Trump has taken decisive action against the threats
posed by illegal immigration and drug trafficking, especially fentanyl. Citing the
International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), he has imposed additional
tariffs:
● 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico
● 10% on imports from China (with energy resources from Canada facing a lower
10% tariff)
These measures aim to hold these nations accountable for their commitments to curbing
illegal immigration and drug trafficking. The administration has criticized China for
failing to control the export of precursor chemicals used in fentanyl production and
accused the Mexican government of tolerating cartel operations.
2. Using Trade as Leverage for National Security: Trump has emphasized the use of
tariffs as a tool to safeguard U.S. interests. He argues that previous administrations failed
to leverage America’s economic strength to protect the border and combat the fentanyl
crisis. Given the reliance of Canada, Mexico, and China on trade with the U.S., Trump
believes tariffs are a powerful means to pressure these nations into action.
3. Tackling the Border Crisis: Trump has reiterated his commitment to stopping illegal
immigration, blaming the Biden administration for an unprecedented border crisis. He
claims that:
● Over 10 million illegal aliens have attempted to enter the U.S. under Biden’s
policies.
● Fentanyl seizures at the border exceeded 21,000 pounds last fiscal year—enough
to kill over 4 billion people.
● Drug cartels, smugglers, and traffickers are exploiting weak border policies,
leading to rising crime and economic strain on U.S. communities.
To address this, Trump has pledged to restore stricter border controls and
reinforce law enforcement efforts.
4. Building on His Previous Policies: Trump is continuing his "America First" trade
approach, emphasizing that tariffs and strong border policies are crucial to national
security. He has promised a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, as
mentioned above, until illegal immigration and drug trafficking are significantly reduced.
During his first term, Trump implemented several trade and security measures, including:
● Declaring the Opioid Crisis a public health emergency.
● Imposing tariffs on China’s intellectual property violations.
● Using tariffs on Mexico as leverage to secure border enforcement agreements.
● Strengthening U.S. trade policies to protect key industries such as steel and
aluminum.
Trump’s latest policies continue this strategy, aiming to prioritize American safety,
economic stability, and border security.
II. Effects on the Global Economy
It is said by Le Monde (2025) that both Canada and Mexico are two major suppliers of
agricultural products for the U.S., with them importing a total of tens of billions of dollars from
each of this nation annually. That is the reason why increasing the tax rate in these two countries
is the escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and its key trading partners, particularly
Canada, Mexico, and even China, who was once an important trading partner for the nation but
also a major competitor before tariffs (U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2022). The
imposition of tariffs on imports from these countries could provoke retaliatory measures and can
lead to an environment of economic uncertainty. For example, China responded by imposing
10% to 15% retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. natural resources and machinery on 10 Feb, 2025
(Antonia et al., 2025). As a result, businesses may face higher operational costs, leading to
inflationary pressures and slower global trade growth. It is also expected that manufacturing
industries that rely on cross-border supply chains are likely to experience production delays and
increased expenses, as stated by Coykendall, Hardin and Morehouse (2024).
Another major impact is the rising costs for consumers and businesses. Higher tariffs translate to
increased prices for imported goods, according to UCL (2025), which will render everyday
items, namely electronics, automobiles, and household products, become more expensive for
U.S. consumers. Additionally, industries that rely on raw materials from Canada and Mexico,
especially energy and machinery, could see significant output decrease and job losses. This strain
on North American trade could also push companies to seek alternative markets, reducing
economic interdependence within the region (Meltzer, 2025).
For Canada and Mexico, which depend heavily on trade with the U.S., these tariffs could slow
economic growth, weaken local currencies, and impact employment (Meltzer, 2025; Barhat,
2025), especially in export-driven sectors. Similarly, for China who already faces economic
headwinds, the increasing-tax threat may also provoke it to overcome its internal structural
challenges (RBC Brewin Dolphin, 2025).
From Teng (2025), President Trump also mentioned through his X post that his tariffs aim to
curb illegal migrants and deadly drugs, including fentanyl which mainly target Mexico and
China. If Mexico’s economy suffers due to tariffs, drug cartels could gain greater influence,
exacerbating security concerns rather than resolving them. Meanwhile, there will be restrictions
on precursor chemicals from China which may disrupt pharmaceutical supply chains (Jorgic et
al., 2024). Additionally, from a financial standpoint, these policies could contribute to a stronger
U.S. dollar, as global investors seek stability in U.S. assets during economic uncertainty (Palmer,
2025). However, a stronger dollar makes American exports more expensive, reducing their
competitiveness in global markets. Emerging economies with dollar-denominated debt may also
struggle with repayments, increasing the risk of financial instability in developing regions.
III. Effects on the Vietnam’s Economic Landscape
In a recent hearing, Jamieson Greer, the nominee for US Trade Representative, highlighted
Vietnam as one of the countries whose tariffs and trade barriers need to be reviewed (Lawder and
Shalal, 2025). According to World Trade Organization data, Vietnam’s trade-weighted average
tariff is 5.1%, higher than the United States’ 2.2% (Mason, 2025).
US tax policy, especially if Mr. Trump's proposed import tax increases are fully implemented,
and could have far-reaching impacts on Vietnam's economy through the trade balance, exchange
rate, supply chain and FDI. If President Donald Trump’s new tariff policy targets Vietnam,
exports to the United States could face major challenges. According to the U.S. Census Bureau
data, the US goods trade deficit with Vietnam increased 18% last year to 123.5 billion USD,
partly due to companies shifting production out of China to avoid Trump’s tariffs during his first
term (Guarascio, 2025).
With the US being Vietnam's largest export market, key export industries such as electronics,
textiles and footwear will be under great pressure from the tax increase policy (Anh and Duy,
2025). According to data from the General Department of Customs, in 2024, the total two-way
trade turnover between Vietnam and the United States will reach more than 132 billion USD. Of
which, Vietnam's exports to the United States will reach nearly 119 billion USD, accounting for
29.5% of total export turnover and up 23.3% over the same period in 2023; imports from the
United States will reach 13 billion USD, up 7.3% over the same period in 2023 (Ha, 2025; Hanh,
2025). If the US imposes higher tariffs, Vietnamese businesses will face many difficulties in
maintaining their competitive advantage. Those which are involved in the global supply chain,
may have difficulty maintaining contracts and markets.
During Donald Trump's first term, Vietnam was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the US-China
trade war, as many global manufacturers moved factories from China to Vietnam to avoid US
tariffs (Bao, 2025). This has helped Vietnam achieve the third largest trade surplus with the US,
after China and Mexico (Phuc, 2025). According to Chaoying and Yilmaz (2024), While
Southeast Asia as a whole has benefited from the US-China trade war, no country has been as
successful as Vietnam in attracting investment thanks to its proximity to China and
business-friendly policies. The US-Vietnam relationship has also strengthened under President
Joe Biden, with the upgrade of the relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership.
However, this success also puts Vietnam in a vulnerable position, as the economy is heavily
dependent on the US, accounting for nearly 30% of Vietnam's total export turnover. With a trade
surplus of up to 104.6 billion USD with the US in 2024 (up 25.6% compared to 2023), Vietnam
is becoming a potential target in the Trump administration's tax policy (Guarascio, 2024; Ha and
Ngoc, 2025).
Vietnam is currently a major manufacturing base for US companies such as Apple, Google, Nike
and Intel, and plays an important role in the global supply chain (Stoffers, 2024). The trade
policy of the second term of the Trump administration emphasizes the role of tariffs in reducing
the trade deficit and promoting domestic US production. If the Trump administration sees
Vietnam as a place where Chinese businesses increase production and export to the US to avoid
the US-China trade war, then Vietnam will be the target right after China in the Trump 2.0 trade
strategy, pushing up import taxes on "Made in Vietnam" products into the US (Hai, 2025). In
addition, Trump also threatened to impose a tax rate of up to 20% on all imported goods into the
US (Tausche et al., 2025). High tax rates increase the selling price of goods from Vietnam,
reduce competitiveness in the US market and the ability to maintain market share. As a result,
export turnover decreases, potentially leading to a deficit or a decline in the trade balance
surplus. The decline in exports also means a reduction in the supply of US dollars into Vietnam,
putting pressure on the exchange rate (Tong, 2025). The VND may depreciate, making
businesses that import raw materials and machinery face higher costs. This increases domestic
production costs, affecting profits and consumer prices (Man, 2024).
In addition, FDI inflows may also be affected by global instability and US protectionist policies
(Kim and Steinbach, 2024). FDI enterprises, typically FDI enterprises in Vietnam, are also
concerned about the possibility of tariffs from the new Trump administration. If Washington
imposes tariffs on Vietnamese goods, companies from South Korea, China, etc. may delay or
reduce investment and production in Vietnam because the advantage of low import tariffs for
“Made in Vietnam” products is no longer available (Lakshmi, 2024). South Korea and China are
listed among top countries with the largest FDI inflows into Vietnam, so the decline in FDI
inflows from these partners will greatly affect production and exports. With Vietnam heavily
dependent on FDI for industrial development and production expansion, the decline in this
capital flow could slow down economic growth (VietNamNet News, 2024).
Lastly, inflation in the US could increase due to increased tariffs on imported goods, combined
with a tough immigration policy that reduces the labor supply (Barlow, 2024), since immigrant
workers contribute nearly 19% to the total labor market in the US (Bureau of Labor Statistics,
2024), especially for low-skilled workers. The labor supply from immigrant workers decreases,
leading to increased labor costs and thus increased total production costs, leading to increased
prices (Vargas-Silva and Sumption, 2023). High inflation in the US could spread to Vietnam
through trade, because increased costs of imported goods from the US will affect Vietnamese
businesses using raw materials or equipment from the US (Weisblatt, Quang and Le, 2024). At
the same time, global commodity costs, especially technology and energy products, will also be
pushed up, increasing import prices into Vietnam (Coppola et al., 2024). High inflation in the US
could also lead to the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates to control inflation. This would
increase global interest rates, putting pressure on Vietnam's monetary policy, posing a challenge
in maintaining competitive interest rates to retain FDI inflows (Thuong, 2025). As a result,
Vietnam will face a difficult choice between stabilizing interest rates or increasing the exchange
rate to avoid foreign capital withdrawal (Vy, 2025). Thus, tax policy and high inflation in the US
have a double negative impact on Vietnam: on the one hand, reducing exports and putting
pressure on the trade balance, on the other hand, increasing import costs and domestic
inflationary pressure.
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