ap15_frq_statistics
ap15_frq_statistics
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2015 AP® STATISTICS FREE-RESPONSE QUESTIONS
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2015 AP® STATISTICS FREE-RESPONSE QUESTIONS
Formulas
Ç xi
x
n
1 2
sx Ç xi x
n 1
n1 1 s21 n2 1 s 22
sp
n1 1 n2 1
ŷ b0 b1 x
Ç xi x yi y
b1
2
Ç xi x
b0 y b1 x
1 Èx x Ø È yi y Ø
r ÇÉ i ÙÉ s Ù
n 1 Ê sx ÚÊ y Ú
sy
b1 r
sx
2
Ç yi yˆi
sb n2
1 2
Ç xi x
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2015 AP® STATISTICS FREE-RESPONSE QUESTIONS
(II) Probability
P ( A ª B) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A © B )
P ( A © B)
P ( A B)
P ( B)
E( X ) µx Ç xi pi
2
Var( X ) s 2x Ç xi µ x pi
È nØ k nk
P( X k) ÉÊ k ÙÚ p (1 p)
µx np
sx np(1 p)
µ pˆ p
p(1 p)
s pˆ
n
µx µ
s
sx
n
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2015 AP® STATISTICS FREE-RESPONSE QUESTIONS
statistic parameter
Standardized test statistic:
standard deviation of statistic
Single-Sample
Standard Deviation
Statistic
of Statistic
s
Sample Mean n
p(1 p)
Sample Proportion n
Two-Sample
Standard Deviation
Statistic
of Statistic
Difference of s12 s 22
sample means
n1 n2
Difference of p1 (1 p1 ) p2 (1 p2 )
sample proportions
n1 n2
2
observed expected
Chi-square test statistic Ç expected
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2015 AP® STATISTICS FREE-RESPONSE QUESTIONS
STATISTICS
SECTION II
Part A
Questions 1-5
Spend about 65 minutes on this part of the exam.
Percent of Section II score—75
Directions: Show all your work. Indicate clearly the methods you use, because you will be scored on the
correctness of your methods as well as on the accuracy and completeness of your results and explanations.
1. Two large corporations, A and B, hire many new college graduates as accountants at entry-level positions. In
2009 the starting salary for an entry-level accountant position was $36,000 a year at both corporations. At each
corporation, data were collected from 30 employees who were hired in 2009 as entry-level accountants and were
still employed at the corporation five years later. The yearly salaries of the 60 employees in 2014 are
summarized in the boxplots below.
(a) Write a few sentences comparing the distributions of the yearly salaries at the two corporations.
(b) Suppose both corporations offered you a job for $36,000 a year as an entry-level accountant.
(i) Based on the boxplots, give one reason why you might choose to accept the job at corporation A.
(ii) Based on the boxplots, give one reason why you might choose to accept the job at corporation B.
2. To increase business, the owner of a restaurant is running a promotion in which a customer’s bill can be
randomly selected to receive a discount. When a customer’s bill is printed, a program in the cash register
randomly determines whether the customer will receive a discount on the bill. The program was written to
generate a discount with a probability of 0.2, that is, giving 20 percent of the bills a discount in the long run.
However, the owner is concerned that the program has a mistake that results in the program not generating the
intended long-run proportion of 0.2.
The owner selected a random sample of bills and found that only 15 percent of them received discounts. A
confidence interval for p, the proportion of bills that will receive a discount in the long run, is 0.15 0.06.
All conditions for inference were met.
A second random sample of bills was taken that was four times the size of the original sample. In the second
sample 15 percent of the bills received the discount.
(b) Determine the value of the margin of error based on the second sample of bills that would be used to
compute an interval for p with the same confidence level as that of the original interval.
(c) Based on the margin of error in part (b) that was obtained from the second sample, what do you conclude
about whether the program is working as intended? Justify your answer.
3. A shopping mall has three automated teller machines (ATMs). Because the machines receive heavy use, they
sometimes stop working and need to be repaired. Let the random variable X represent the number of ATMs that
are working when the mall opens on a randomly selected day. The table shows the probability distribution of X.
(a) What is the probability that at least one ATM is working when the mall opens?
(b) What is the expected value of the number of ATMs that are working when the mall opens?
(c) What is the probability that all three ATMs are working when the mall opens, given that at least one ATM is
working?
(d) Given that at least one ATM is working when the mall opens, would the expected value of the number of
ATMs that are working be less than, equal to, or greater than the expected value from part (b) ? Explain.
4. A researcher conducted a medical study to investigate whether taking a low-dose aspirin reduces the chance
of developing colon cancer. As part of the study, 1,000 adult volunteers were randomly assigned to one of two
groups. Half of the volunteers were assigned to the experimental group that took a low-dose aspirin each day,
and the other half were assigned to the control group that took a placebo each day. At the end of six years,
15 of the people who took the low-dose aspirin had developed colon cancer and 26 of the people who took
the placebo had developed colon cancer. At the significance level a 0.05, do the data provide convincing
statistical evidence that taking a low-dose aspirin each day would reduce the chance of developing colon cancer
among all people similar to the volunteers?
5. A student measured the heights and the arm spans, rounded to the nearest inch, of each person in a random
sample of 12 seniors at a high school. A scatterplot of arm span versus height for the 12 seniors is shown.
(a) Based on the scatterplot, describe the relationship between arm span and height for the sample of 12 seniors.
Let x represent height, in inches, and let y represent arm span, in inches. Two scatterplots of the same data
are shown below. Graph 1 shows the data with the least squares regression line yˆ 11.74 0.8247 x, and
graph 2 shows the data with the line y x.
(b) The criteria described in the table below can be used to classify people into one of three body shape
categories: square, tall rectangle, or short rectangle.
Square Tall Rectangle Short Rectangle
Arm span is equal to height. Arm span is less than height. Arm span is greater than height.
(i) For which graph, 1 or 2, is the line helpful in classifying a student’s body shape as square, tall
rectangle, or short rectangle? Explain.
Frequency
(c) Using the best model for prediction, calculate the predicted arm span for a senior with height 61 inches.
STATISTICS
SECTION II
Part B
Question 6
Spend about 25 minutes on this part of the exam.
Percent of Section II score—25
Directions: Show all your work. Indicate clearly the methods you use, because you will be scored on the
correctness of your methods as well as on the accuracy and completeness of your results and explanations.
6. Corn tortillas are made at a large facility that produces 100,000 tortillas per day on each of its two production
lines. The distribution of the diameters of the tortillas produced on production line A is approximately normal
with mean 5.9 inches, and the distribution of the diameters of the tortillas produced on production line B is
approximately normal with mean 6.1 inches. The figure below shows the distributions of diameters for the
two production lines.
The tortillas produced at the factory are advertised as having a diameter of 6 inches. For the purpose of quality
control, a sample of 200 tortillas is selected and the diameters are measured. From the sample of 200 tortillas, the
manager of the facility wants to estimate the mean diameter, in inches, of the 200,000 tortillas produced on a
given day. Two sampling methods have been proposed.
Method 1: Take a random sample of 200 tortillas from the 200,000 tortillas produced on a given day.
Measure the diameter of each selected tortilla.
Method 2: Randomly select one of the two production lines on a given day. Take a random sample of
200 tortillas from the 100,000 tortillas produced by the selected production line. Measure the diameter of
each selected tortilla.
(a) Will a sample obtained using Method 2 be representative of the population of all tortillas made that day,
with respect to the diameters of the tortillas? Explain why or why not.
(b) The figure below is a histogram of 200 diameters obtained by using one of the two sampling methods
described. Considering the shape of the histogram, explain which method, Method 1 or Method 2, was most
likely used to obtain a such a sample.
(c) Which of the two sampling methods, Method 1 or Method 2, will result in less variability in the diameters of
the 200 tortillas in the sample on a given day? Explain.
Each day, the distribution of the 200,000 tortillas made that day has mean diameter 6 inches with standard
deviation 0.11 inch.
(d) For samples of size 200 taken from one day’s production, describe the sampling distribution of the sample
mean diameter for samples that are obtained using Method 1.
(e) Suppose that one of the two sampling methods will be selected and used every day for one year (365 days).
The sample mean of the 200 diameters will be recorded each day. Which of the two methods will result in
less variability in the distribution of the 365 sample means? Explain.
(f) A government inspector will visit the facility on June 22 to observe the sampling and to determine if the
factory is in compliance with the advertised mean diameter of 6 inches. The manager knows that, with both
sampling methods, the sample mean is an unbiased estimator of the population mean. However, the manager
is unsure which method is more likely to produce a sample mean that is close to 6 inches on the day of
sampling. Based on your previous answers, which of the two sampling methods, Method 1 or Method 2, is
more likely to produce a sample mean close to 6 inches? Explain.
STOP
END OF EXAM
Probability
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
– 3.4 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0002
– 3.3 .0005 .0005 .0005 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0003
– 3.2 .0007 .0007 .0006 .0006 .0006 .0006 .0006 .0005 .0005 .0005
– 3.1 .0010 .0009 .0009 .0009 .0008 .0008 .0008 .0008 .0007 .0007
– 3.0 .0013 .0013 .0013 .0012 .0012 .0011 .0011 .0011 .0010 .0010
– 2.9 .0019 .0018 .0018 .0017 .0016 .0016 .0015 .0015 .0014 .0014
– 2.8 .0026 .0025 .0024 .0023 .0023 .0022 .0021 .0021 .0020 .0019
– 2.7 .0035 .0034 .0033 .0032 .0031 .0030 .0029 .0028 .0027 .0026
– 2.6 .0047 .0045 .0044 .0043 .0041 .0040 .0039 .0038 .0037 .0036
– 2.5 .0062 .0060 .0059 .0057 .0055 .0054 .0052 .0051 .0049 .0048
– 2.4 .0082 .0080 .0078 .0075 .0073 .0071 .0069 .0068 .0066 .0064
– 2.3 .0107 .0104 .0102 .0099 .0096 .0094 .0091 .0089 .0087 .0084
– 2.2 .0139 .0136 .0132 .0129 .0125 .0122 .0119 .0116 .0113 .0110
– 2.1 .0179 .0174 .0170 .0166 .0162 .0158 .0154 .0150 .0146 .0143
– 2.0 .0228 .0222 .0217 .0212 .0207 .0202 .0197 .0192 .0188 .0183
– 1.9 .0287 .0281 .0274 .0268 .0262 .0256 .0250 .0244 .0239 .0233
– 1.8 .0359 .0351 .0344 .0336 .0329 .0322 .0314 .0307 .0301 .0294
– 1.7 .0446 .0436 .0427 .0418 .0409 .0401 .0392 .0384 .0375 .0367
– 1.6 .0548 .0537 .0526 .0516 .0505 .0495 .0485 .0475 .0465 .0455
– 1.5 .0668 .0655 .0643 .0630 .0618 .0606 .0594 .0582 .0571 .0559
– 1.4 .0808 .0793 .0778 .0764 .0749 .0735 .0721 .0708 .0694 .0681
– 1.3 .0968 .0951 .0934 .0918 .0901 .0885 .0869 .0853 .0838 .0823
– 1.2 .1151 .1131 .1112 .1093 .1075 .1056 .1038 .1020 .1003 .0985
– 1.1 .1357 .1335 .1314 .1292 .1271 .1251 .1230 .1210 .1190 .1170
– 1.0 .1587 .1562 .1539 .1515 .1492 .1469 .1446 .1423 .1401 .1379
– 0.9 .1841 .1814 .1788 .1762 .1736 .1711 .1685 .1660 .1635 .1611
– 0.8 .2119 .2090 .2061 .2033 .2005 .1977 .1949 .1922 .1894 .1867
– 0.7 .2420 .2389 .2358 .2327 .2296 .2266 .2236 .2206 .2177 .2148
– 0.6 .2743 .2709 .2676 .2643 .2611 .2578 .2546 .2514 .2483 .2451
– 0.5 .3085 .3050 .3015 .2981 .2946 .2912 .2877 .2843 .2810 .2776
– 0.4 .3446 .3409 .3372 .3336 .3300 .3264 .3228 .3192 .3156 .3121
– 0.3 .3821 .3783 .3745 .3707 .3669 .3632 .3594 .3557 .3520 .3483
– 0.2 .4207 .4168 .4129 .4090 .4052 .4013 .3974 .3936 .3897 .3859
– 0.1 .4602 .4562 .4522 .4483 .4443 .4404 .4364 .4325 .4286 .4247
– 0.0 .5000 .4960 .4920 .4880 .4840 .4801 .4761 .4721 .4681 .4641
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2015 AP® STATISTICS FREE-RESPONSE QUESTIONS
Probability
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080 .5120 .5160 .5199 .5239 .5279 .5319 .5359
0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478 .5517 .5557 .5596 .5636 .5675 .5714 .5753
0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871 .5910 .5948 .5987 .6026 .6064 .6103 .6141
0.3 .6179 .6217 .6255 .6293 .6331 .6368 .6406 .6443 .6480 .6517
0.4 .6554 .6591 .6628 .6664 .6700 .6736 .6772 .6808 .6844 .6879
0.5 .6915 .6950 .6985 .7019 .7054 .7088 .7123 .7157 .7190 .7224
0.6 .7257 .7291 .7324 .7357 .7389 .7422 .7454 .7486 .7517 .7549
0.7 .7580 .7611 .7642 .7673 .7704 .7734 .7764 .7794 .7823 .7852
0.8 .7881 .7910 .7939 .7967 .7995 .8023 .8051 .8078 .8106 .8133
0.9 .8159 .8186 .8212 .8238 .8264 .8289 .8315 .8340 .8365 .8389
1.0 .8413 .8438 .8461 .8485 .8508 8531 .8554 .8577 .8599 .8621
1.1 .8643 .8665 .8686 .8708 .8729 .8749 .8770 .8790 .8810 .8830
1.2 .8849 .8869 .8888 .8907 .8925 .8944 .8962 .8980 .8997 .9015
1.3 .9032 .9049 .9066 .9082 .9099 .9115 .9131 .9147 .9162 .9177
1.4 .9192 .9207 .9222 .9236 .9251 .9265 .9279 .9292 .9306 .9319
1.5 .9332 .9345 .9357 .9370 .9382 .9394 .9406 .9418 .9429 .9441
1.6 .9452 .9463 .9474 .9484 .9495 .9505 .9515 .9525 .9535 .9545
1.7 .9554 .9564 .9573 .9582 .9591 .9599 .9608 .9616 .9625 .9633
1.8 .9641 .9649 .9656 .9664 .9671 .9678 .9686 .9693 .9699 .9706
1.9 .9713 .9719 .9726 .9732 .9738 .9744 .9750 .9756 .9761 .9767
2.0 .9772 .9778 .9783 .9788 .9793 9798 .9803 .9808 .9812 .9817
2.1 .9821 .9826 .9830 .9834 .9838 .9842 .9846 .9850 .9854 .9857
2.2 .9861 .9864 .9868 .9871 .9875 .9878 .9881 .9884 .9887 .9890
2.3 .9893 .9896 .9898 .9901 .9904 .9906 .9909 .9911 .9913 .9916
2.4 .9918 .9920 .9922 .9925 .9927 .9929 .9931 .9932 .9934 .9936
2.5 .9938 .9940 .9941 .9943 .9945 .9946 .9948 .9949 .9951 .9952
2.6 .9953 .9955 .9956 .9957 .9959 .9960 .9961 .9962 .9963 .9964
2.7 .9965 .9966 .9967 .9968 .9969 .9970 .9971 .9972 .9973 .9974
2.8 .9974 .9975 .9976 .9977 .9977 .9978 .9979 .9979 .9980 .9981
2.9 .9981 .9982 .9982 .9983 .9984 .9984 .9985 .9985 .9986 .9986
3.0 .9987 .9987 .9987 .9988 .9988 9989 .9989 .9989 .9990 .9990
3.1 .9990 .9991 .9991 .9991 .9992 .9992 .9992 .9992 .9993 .9993
3.2 .9993 .9993 .9994 .9994 .9994 .9994 .9994 .9995 .9995 .9995
3.3 .9995 .9995 .9995 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9997
3.4 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9998
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2015 AP® STATISTICS FREE-RESPONSE QUESTIONS
t*
Tail probability p
df .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 .025 .02 .01 .005 .0025 .001 .0005
1 1.000 1.376 1.963 3.078 6.314 12.71 15.89 31.82 63.66 127.3 318.3 636.6
2 .816 1.061 1.386 1.886 2.920 4.303 4.849 6.965 9.925 14.09 22.33 31.60
3 .765 .978 1.250 1.638 2.353 3.182 3.482 4.541 5.841 7.453 10.21 12.92
4 .741 .941 1.190 1.533 2.132 2.776 2.999 3.747 4.604 5.598 7.173 8.610
5 .727 .920 1.156 1.476 2.015 2.571 2.757 3.365 4.032 4.773 5.893 6.869
6 .718 .906 1.134 1.440 1.943 2.447 2.612 3.143 3.707 4.317 5.208 5.959
7 .711 .896 1.119 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.517 2.998 3.499 4.029 4.785 5.408
8 .706 .889 1.108 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.449 2.896 3.355 3.833 4.501 5.041
9 .703 .883 1.100 1.383 1.833 2.262 2.398 2.821 3.250 3.690 4.297 4.781
10 .700 .879 1.093 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.359 2.764 3.169 3.581 4.144 4.587
11 .697 .876 1.088 1.363 1.796 2.201 2.328 2.718 3.106 3.497 4.025 4.437
12 .695 .873 1.083 1.356 1.782 2.179 2.303 2.681 3.055 3.428 3.930 4.318
13 .694 .870 1.079 1.350 1.771 2.160 2.282 2.650 3.012 3.372 3.852 4.221
14 .692 .868 1.076 1.345 1.761 2.145 2.264 2.624 2.977 3.326 3.787 4.140
15 .691 .866 1.074 1.341 1.753 2.131 2.249 2.602 2.947 3.286 3.733 4.073
16 .690 .865 1.071 1.337 1.746 2.120 2.235 2.583 2.921 3.252 3.686 4.015
17 .689 .863 1.069 1.333 1.740 2.110 2.224 2.567 2.898 3.222 3.646 3.965
18 .688 .862 1.067 1.330 1.734 2.101 2.214 2.552 2.878 3.197 3.611 3.922
19 .688 .861 1.066 1.328 1.729 2.093 2.205 2.539 2.861 3.174 3.579 3.883
20 .687 .860 1.064 1.325 1.725 2.086 2.197 2.528 2.845 3.153 3.552 3.850
21 .686 .859 1.063 1.323 1.721 2.080 2.189 2.518 2.831 3.135 3.527 3.819
22 .686 .858 1.061 1.321 1.717 2.074 2.183 2.508 2.819 3.119 3.505 3.792
23 .685 .858 1.060 1.319 1.714 2.069 2.177 2.500 2.807 3.104 3.485 3.768
24 .685 .857 1.059 1.318 1.711 2.064 2.172 2.492 2.797 3.091 3.467 3.745
25 .684 .856 1.058 1.316 1.708 2.060 2.167 2.485 2.787 3.078 3.450 3.725
26 .684 .856 1.058 1.315 1.706 2.056 2.162 2.479 2.779 3.067 3.435 3.707
27 .684 .855 1.057 1.314 1.703 2.052 2.158 2.473 2.771 3.057 3.421 3.690
28 .683 .855 1.056 1.313 1.701 2.048 2.154 2.467 2.763 3.047 3.408 3.674
29 .683 .854 1.055 1.311 1.699 2.045 2.150 2.462 2.756 3.038 3.396 3.659
30 .683 .854 1.055 1.310 1.697 2.042 2.147 2.457 2.750 3.030 3.385 3.646
40 .681 .851 1.050 1.303 1.684 2.021 2.123 2.423 2.704 2.971 3.307 3.551
50 .679 .849 1.047 1.299 1.676 2.009 2.109 2.403 2.678 2.937 3.261 3.496
60 .679 .848 1.045 1.296 1.671 2.000 2.099 2.390 2.660 2.915 3.232 3.460
80 .678 .846 1.043 1.292 1.664 1.990 2.088 2.374 2.639 2.887 3.195 3.416
100 .677 .845 1.042 1.290 1.660 1.984 2.081 2.364 2.626 2.871 3.174 3.390
1000 .675 .842 1.037 1.282 1.646 1.962 2.056 2.330 2.581 2.813 3.098 3.300
.674 .841 1.036 1.282 1.645 1.960 2.054 2.326 2.576 2.807 3.091 3.291
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95% 96% 98% 99% 99.5% 99.8% 99.9%
Confidence level C
-16-
2015 AP® STATISTICS FREE-RESPONSE QUESTIONS
Probability p
Table entry for p is the point
( 2 ) with probability p lying
above it.
(χ2 )
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