14.india Today-June 17 2024-Mandate 2024-Special Issue-Striking A Balance
14.india Today-June 17 2024-Mandate 2024-Special Issue-Striking A Balance
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MANDATE 2024 S P EC I A L I SS U E
www.indiatoday.in JUNE 17, 2024 `100
Volume 49-Number 25; Published on every Friday of Advance Week; Posted at LPC Delhi – RMS – Delhi – 110006 on Every Friday & Saturday; Total number of Pages 84 (including cover pages)
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A BALANCE
THOUGH MODI WINS A HISTORIC THIRD TERM, INDIA
RETURNS TO COALITION POLITICS, FORCING THE PM TO
WORK WITH CONSENSUS ACROSS PARTIES
STRIKING A BALANCE
Indian voters grant Modi a historic third term, but without a
majority and with the object lesson to rule by consensus
By RAJ CHENGAPPA
ANI
MANDATE 2024
| L E A D E S S AY |
IT
is not quite the way Narendra Modi wanted to go
down in India’s electoral history. When he takes oath on
June 9, Modi will be only the second prime minister in six
decades to have served a third consecutive term. That’s
an outstanding achievement by itself. But for Modi, the
outcome of Election 2024 is seen as a personal setback.
Having led the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to back-to-
THE ‘N’ FACTORS
back majorities in the 2014 and 2019 general elections,
Nitish and Naidu greet
he would have liked to equal the record set by Jawaharlal Prime Minister Modi in
Nehru, India’s first prime minister. Nehru had a hat trick New Delhi, Jun. 5
of Lok Sabha majorities for the Congress party in 1952,
ANI
SAFFRON
| L E A D E S S AY |
Source: ECI
2019 NDA
UPA
Others brute majority ended up having a negative impact on the BJP’s What this verdict also makes
campaign. Especially after Rahul Gandhi and other INDIA
partners accused the party of wanting such a majority to effect
clear is that Brand Modi
major constitutional changes to scrap, among other things, is diminishing and heavy
reservations for the backward classes, Scheduled Castes (SCs) reliance on this factor can
and Scheduled Tribes (STs). This clearly seemed to have spo only be to the BJP’s detriment
oked the voter, with the BJP tally in the 84 seats reserved for
SCs dropping from 46 in 2019 to 30 this election. Their loss
NDA proved to be the Congress’s gain, as the party, which won six
UPA
SC seats in 2019, saw the number rise to 19 in 2024, and its al-
Others
liance partner, the Samajwadi Party, gain another seven from NDA’s vote share. In terms of seats, out of the 47 reserved for
the blank it drew in 2019. The india today-MyAxis exit poll STs, the BJP won 26, five less than in 2019, while the Congress
2024 2019 2014 results showed that there was an overall jump of 18 percentage cornered 12, eight more than its previous tally of four.
NDA INDIA OTHERS NDA UPA OTHERS NDA UPA OTHERS points in Dalit votes for Congress and its allies across both
general and SC reserved constituencies and a six percentage THE RURAL THUMBS-DOWN
293 234 16 352 91 100 336 59 148 point drop for BJP & Co. The same held true for the ST vot-
ers, with the exit polls recording a 12 percentage point jump
Another big takeaway from this election is that the INDIA
formation successfully capitalised on voter discontent on two
VOTE SHARE VOTE SHARE VOTE SHARE in vote share for INDIA and a two percentage point fall in the major fronts: unemployment and inflation. The recent CSDS
43% 41% 16% 45% 27% 28% 39% 23% 38% Graphics by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY J U N E 17, 2 02 4 INDIA TODAY 11
Vote share figures have been rounded off
MANDATE 2024 RURAL THE RURAL
| L E A D E S S AY | 198 FACE-OFF
The Congress gained significantly in
(-49) the rural and semi-urban seats across
149 the country at the expense of the BJP
study shows that not only were these two issues high on SEMI URBAN URBAN
the list of voter concerns but more than 50 per cent of the
(-10)
respondents also said that their economic condition had 70
either remained the same or worsened in the past year. (+26) 60 (+20)
The findings were akin to the conclusions in the india 55 40 (-4)
today Mood of the Nation survey in February 2024. De- 35 31
spite the BJP painting it as a ploy to rob Hindu women 29 20 (+1)
of their mangalsutras to give them to Muslims, Rahul’s 3 4
call for a redistribution of wealth from the rich to the
poor seemed to have had some resonance, as perhaps did 2019 2024 2019 2024 2019 2024
BJP Congress; Seats gain/loss in ( )
Source: Data Intelligence Unit, India Today
Modi’s challenges may now
come from within the party
itself, which may call for an THE DALIT 2019 2024
W
constituencies 4 Cong. 12
hat the BJP will take comfort in is reserved for the
their creditable win in Odisha, as Scheduled Tribes 2 BJD 0
it secured 20 out of the 21 seats in Total ST seats: 47 Others
the Lok Sabha and a simple major-
ity for the first time in the assem-
bly election held simultaneously. Also its expansion
of seats in Andhra Pradesh, where it tied up with the
Telugu Desam Party as its junior partner and benefited meted to 66 seats from the 120 it won on its own in the previous
from the landslide victory former chief minister Chan- election, an attrition of 54 seats. The party posted losses in Raj-
drababu Naidu pulled off in the assembly election that asthan, Haryana, Karnataka and Jharkhand as well.
was also held at the same time. The BJP also retained
its fortresses in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhat- THE RAM PLATEAU
tisgarh, while making modest gains in Telangana and The cruellest cut came from UP, a BJP bastion that had given it 62
scoring a major psychological victory with a seat in of its 80 seats in 2019, and another two to ally Apna Dal (S). That
Kerala for the first time ever. But these gains proved tally now stands reduced to a mere 33 for the BJP, 29 less than last
scarce consolation for the blow it received in the swing time, and 36 for the NDA, less than half the total seats in the state.
states of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal This despite UP being under the rule of another BJP strongman,
and Bihar, which together account for 210 seats in the chief minister Yogi Adityanath, re-elected by a handsome majority
Lok Sabha. The BJP tally in these four states plum- in the 2022 assembly polls. The BJP’s hope of a wave around the
Photographs by ANI
THE REGIONAL RESURGENCE
Clockwise from top left, Mamata,
Uddhav, Tejaswi and Sharad Pawar
with daughter Supriya Sule
ARUN KUMAR
construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya did not materialise. Modi’s challenges may now come from within the party itself,
CSDS’s Shastri, in fact, believes that the gains from Hindutva with calls for an end to the overcentralised decision-making and
issues had begun “plateauing” in the state after 2019. And what Tiwari calls the “my way or the highway” approach that
while Modi’s polarising campaign speeches of “mangalsutras, has become a hallmark of the BJP under Modi.
mujras and Muslims” after the second phase may have shored The BJP also has reason to worry as the Congress strike rate
up the party’s core voter support, its appeal seems to have been in direct contests with it has gone up from 8 per cent in 2019
limited since religion cannot feed empty stomachs and the to 30 per cent now. It is being seen as a major reason why the
young want jobs, not doles. Likewise, the BJP’s poor showing BJP lost its majority. Election 2024 also saw the resurgence
in Maharashtra, where it had seized power by splitting the Shiv of regional forces and leaders, including Akhilesh Yadav in
Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party, was evidence that not Uttar Pradesh, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, M.K. Stalin
only did manufactured majorities not work, they also seriously in Tamil Nadu, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray in Ma-
damaged the BJP’s image of being a party with a difference. harashtra and Tejaswi Yadav in Bihar, who have consistently
| L E A D E S S AY |
Vajpayee, believes that like the late prime minister, Modi too
has always been first among equals, which bestows on him
the authority to ward off any challenge he may encounter
within the party and outside of it. Another political insider,
who doesn’t wish to be named, says Modi will be even more
determined to succeed. “Those who think Modi’s wings have
been clipped are mistaken,” he says. “He will not only ensure
that he flies far above others but will also go after his opponents
mercilessly.” The prime minister made clear that intent em-
phatically in his victory address, saying that he would continue
to come down heavily on corruption, sending a clear warning
to his political opponents.
Among the things Modi and the BJP will do in the com-
ing months is to try to shore up their majority to become less
dependent on the current set of allies. This may mean getting
MPs from other parties to resign and contest afresh. But
Tiwari reckons that the BJP’s winnability index has dimin-
ished considerably after this election and many may be wary
of going down the resignation route. The other option is to
have other parties, especially the smaller ones, merge with the
BJP, or engineer splits among them, like with the Shiv Sena
FORT NDA and NCP, and onboard them as allies. The danger there is that
PM Modi with Nitish Kumar, Chandrababu
it could deepen the negative perception about the BJP, the
Naidu, Rajnath Singh, J.P. Nadda, Pawan
Kalyan, Chirag Paswan and other NDA current results in Maharashtra being a case in point. Other
leaders at his Delhi residence, Jun. 5 contradictions abound. Modi has been a vociferous opponent
ANI
of parivarvaad or dynastic politics, but Naidu epitomises it
in Andhra, being the son-in-law of TDP founder, the late N.T.
Ramarao, with a clutch of close relatives in the party. The
thwarted the BJP’s bid to become a united, monolithic pan- duct according to the current-day requirements.” Sudheendra Modi can expect friction with BJP also needs to cleanse the accusation of being a “washing
national party with a brute majority built around Hindutva. Kulkarni, a key aide to Atal Bihari Vajpayee when he headed machine” for leaders in other parties who have cases against
Now, the electorate has strengthened their hand in rejecting the coalition government between 1998 and 2004, is not so
his allies over special category them that mysteriously disappear once they switch sides,
the BJP’s unitarian agenda and reinforced the belief in India’s sure. He is sceptical about Modi completing his third term, status and the caste census. as happened in Maharashtra. Corruption hardly figured in
federal polity that best suits the multiple aspirations of the given that Nitish and Naidu, his two main allies, are unreli- Naidu is also committed to 4% Modi’s campaign speeches in the state. The greater test will
country’s diverse communities, cultures and power structures. able and have ditched him in the past. “After the election,” says quota for Muslims in Andhra be the assembly election in the state later this year; if the BJP
That Modi now has to depend on the support of regional Kulkarni, “Modi’s authority has been considerably reduced, and its allies lose, experts believe it will spell the beginning of
leaders like Nitish and Naidu to survive is an indication of and his legitimacy diminished. He will not be able to push the end of the NDA coalition. Modi will have to work hard to
regionalism’s return to the centre stage of the Indian polity. through constitutional amendments of his choice like one na- ensure that 3.0 does not become Three Point Zero.
tion, one poll. This is the beginning of the end of the Modi era.”
COALITION CONTRADICTIONS The central government is also opposed to granting special THE AGENDA FOR MODI 3.0
T
The outcome is that Modi, who had a splendid run sans any here are several intractable issues Modi may find category status, especially after the 14th Finance Commission The real test for Modi now lies in handling the economy and
political constraints in his past two terms, now has to manage difficult to resolve while dealing with his coali- advised against it. These and other issues have the potential to addressing the key burning issues of unemployment and in-
the contradictions and compulsions of a coalition government. tion partners. Nitish, for one, wants the Agniveer create an impasse and lead to a breakdown in ties. equitable economic growth. The PM has several advantages
He will now have to work towards building a consensus across scheme reviewed and a national caste census that give him the confidence to achieve his goals. He had also,
parties if he is to push the needle forward on much-needed conducted—both moves the BJP is not keen on. MANUFACTURING A MAJORITY in the last months of his second term, got his ministries to
economic reforms. That may be a difficult ask of Modi who, Nitish also wants special category status for Bihar (see Hard Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh ideologue Seshadri Chari work both on short- and long-term plans for transformation.
as experts point out, has no experience of heading a coalition Bargain for Central Grants) to attract more central funds, expresses complete faith in Modi being able to handle both B.V.R. Subrahmanyam, the CEO of government think-tank
government, either as the chief minister of Gujarat or as prime besides a couple of ministerial berths. Naidu wants the same allies and run-ins with other parties with skill. As he says, NITI Aayog, believes that India remains in a demographic
minister, accustomed instead to being both a dominating and for his state besides the easing of the many criminal cases “He and the allies have complementary requirements that will sweet spot with its population at a median age of 29 years
domineering leader. Though, as a former senior bureaucrat against him. The TDP strongman is also likely to go ahead help them stay together. There is a win-win situation in the compared to 39 for countries like China and the US. That
puts it, “Being a PM for so long creates a political osmosis with his commitment to four per cent reservation for Mus- relationship. Or put another way, it’s like two nuclear weapon makes India and Africa the only regions to have youthful
that helps you develop tremendous man management skills. lims in government jobs in his state, in direct contravention powers who know there is a mutually assured destruction if working populations. It is imperative for them, therefore,
Modi will find it easier to shift gears and modulate his con- to Modi’s opposition to reservations on religious grounds. either party falters.” Chari, who has also worked closely with that their economies grow rapidly. As Subrahmanyam warns,
ANI
HARD BARGAIN
| L E A D E S S AY |
FOR CENTRAL “China is facing the challenge of becoming old and is not yet rich. If
GRANTS
India doesn’t achieve the kind of growth China did, we will become
both an old and poor nation.” Geopolitics, too, favours India as major
powers court New Delhi. Rapid technological innovations, including
AI, have levelled the playing field for aspiring nations like India. Cli-
mate change, meanwhile, is forcing countries to get out of the carbon
N. Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar economy, giving India a chance to emerge as a world leader in green
leverage the BJP’s dependence on them technology instead of leading in coal consumption.
to seek Special Category Status for their
T
he past two terms have seen Modi deliver basic civic ame-
respective states. This is what it will entail nities such as water and sanitation and infrastructure like
roads to near-saturation levels. He now has the leeway
By Amarnath K. Menon and Amitabh Srivastava
to hard-focus on areas that could spur rapid economic
POSITION OF growth and generate vast amounts of quality employment.
A
STRENGTH
After his meditation break at Kanyakumari just before the votes were
Andhra Pradesh CM N.
Chandrababu Naidu with counted, Modi wrote, “We must make excellence the fundamental prin-
adopting the Andhra Bihar CM Nitish Kumar ciple to make our country Viksit Bharat. We need to work quickly in
Pradesh Reorganisation all four directions: Speed, Scale, Scope and Standards.” And one area
Act, 2014, Naidu’s demand that Modi is likely to focus on is huge
was finally turned down capacity-building in quality education
in 2018, leading him to quit Nitish needs funds to finance grants fiscal deficit (the excess of total Modi will have and skill development. To create more
the NDA. This was after for the disadvantaged and poor in expenditure over total receipts/
to hard-focus jobs, he is also likely to give a major boost
he had got PM Narendra Bihar. For Naidu, the money will help income) was budgeted at 3.8 per
this term on
to labour-heavy sectors such as tourism
Andhra Pradesh chief Modi to lay the foundation implement his pre-poll promises cent (Rs 54,588 core) of its Gross and textiles besides continuing to spend
minister designate N. stone for a new capital State Domestic Product (GSDP) areas that can big on infrastructure. Manufacturing,
Chandrababu Naidu and at Amravati—a project for 2023-24, and the state’s spur rapid especially in the small-scale sector, is ex-
Bihar chief minister Nitish close to Naidu’s heart that revenue deficit was 1.5 per cent economic pected to receive renewed attention, as
Kumar are adept at driv- he plans to finance with tives. Finance experts other backward classes (Rs 22,317 crore) of its GSDP. This growth and is agricultural reform. Subrahmanyam
ing hard bargains. With central funds and external reason that special (OBCs), 3.3 million from is above the prevailing average says, “Economic reforms are needed to
their strong showing in borrowings. In Bihar’s assistance packages for extremely backward fiscal and revenue deficit for all
generate make Indian firms global in size by im-
the Lok Sabha polls, they case, on November 22, both states are on the classes (EBCs), 2.3 states at 3.1 per cent and 0.1 per vast amounts proving competitiveness and that is likely
are now indispensable to 2023, while Nitish Kumar cards. Old practices like million from scheduled cent respectively. The outstand- of quality to be the broad theme including a focus
the BJP in forming a Na- was still leading the Ma- the Mukherjee-Gadgil castes (SCs) and 201,000 ing liabilities of Andhra at 35.2 per employment on revamping the financial sector.” Modi
tional Democratic Alliance hagathbandhan govern- formula—calculated to from scheduled tribes cent of its GSDP are way above is also likely to push schemes for urban
government. Both are ment, his cabinet passed allocate planned funds (STs). With a per capita other states’ average of 27.6 renewal to ensure that the quality of life
likely to reopen their old a resolution seeking the among state govern- GDP of around Rs 54,000, per cent. Against this dispiriting in our cities is vastly improved. Boosting Indian R&D through generous
demand that Delhi accord grant of SCS to the state. ments after taking into Bihar is one of India’s backdrop, Naidu has to mobilise funding for private ventures is also on the cards. On foreign policy, apart
their respective states New Delhi did not respond account population, per poorest states. Nitish funds to implement his pre-poll from working on India becoming a major international pole, signing on
Special Category Sta- to the demand at the time. capita income, fiscal wants to offer a one-time promise of ‘six guarantees’ as more trade pacts could be in the offing, for exports to grow.
tus (SCS)—whereby the With Bihar going to the performance and special benefit of Rs 2 lakh to well as to continue older welfare Land and labour reforms as well as PSU disinvestment, along
Union government makes polls in 2025, all that is set problems—are being 9.4 million families who schemes. Cash benefits under with delimitation of constituencies, which will increase the size of
special financial grants to change. revisited too. earn less than Rs 6,000 a the Super Six schemes include an Lok Sabha seats in 2026, is where experts expect Modi to encounter
for quicker develop- With the 14th Finance Nitish has been asking month, as well as gener- unemployment dole of Rs 3,000 to resistance from his coalition partners. But the coalition governments
ment of an economically/ Commission (2013-14) SCS for Bihar since 2010, ous grants to homeless, every jobless person, Rs 15,000 a of Narasimha Rao and Vajpayee have demonstrated that it is pos-
geographically disadvan- scrapping the practice and his current demand landless and extremely year to every school-going child, sible to push ahead with far-reaching and dramatic reforms. That it
taged state—on priority. of the SCS and the NITI stems from the revela- poor families. Implement- Rs 20,000 a year to each farmer will be a tough haul for Modi is certain. But then he has also amply
Naidu, the Telugu Desam Aayog—successor of the tions of the 2023 Bihar ing all this will require and a dole of Rs 1,500 a month to demonstrated in the past that he is capable of converting the worst
Party (TDP) supremo, old Planning Commis- Caste Survey, which about Rs 2.5 lakh crore. women aged 18 to 59. adversity into the best opportunity. This is one such opportunity. The
has been demanding the sion—against the practice found that 34.13 per cent Andhra Pradesh, Both Nitish and Naidu are nation has given him and the BJP plus allies the mandate to rule for a
SCS for long. Though of making such extraor- of Bihar’s population too, is in dire need of desperate for the greater flow third term while voting in a strong Opposition as a balance to protect
it was promised by the dinary, and expensive, lives in poverty. They funds. According to the of funds from Delhi that a special the principles and institutions that make India a great democracy.
United Progressive Alli- grants to select states, include 1.8 million people Reserve Bank of India’s category status would guaran- That more than 640 million Indians exercised their franchise in the
ance (UPA)-2 regime at NDA 3.0 will be compelled from unreserved cat- December 2023 report on tee. It is a demand Modi and NDA recently-concluded election proves that tradition is thriving. n
the time of Parliament to come up with alterna- egories, 2.4 million from state finances, Andhra’s cannot decline this time around. n