Utilities Policy 64 (2020) 101034

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Utilities Policy
journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jup

Sustainable energy pathways for land transport in Nigeria

Michael O. Dioha *, Atul Kumar
Department of Energy and Environment, TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10 Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi, 110070, India

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: We used a bottom-up optimisation model to explore the energy system implications of five alternative policy
Transport sector pathways for the Nigerian transport sector. Our study considered fuel switching, improved fuel economy, modal
TIMES model shifting, improved logistics, and carbon tax for the period 2010–2050. Results show that the alternative path­
Nigeria
ways will reduce energy demand and CO2 emissions significantly. Particularly, we found that improved vehicle
fuel economy and a carbon tax can lower Nigeria’s CO2 emissions by 42.8% and 26.9% respectively, in 2050
when compared with the reference case. Additionally, low-carbon pathways will enhance air quality, energy
security, and the productive use of energy.

1. Introduction consists of used imported vehicles, which would not be allowed to run
on the roads any more in their countries of origin (Haq and Schwela,
The second target of goal number eleven (11) of the United Nations 2012).
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) laid particular emphasis on the Nigeria is also not exempt from the negative impacts of fossil fuel-
need to provide sustainable transport systems for all.1 However, current based transport that the world is facing. Many Nigerians, especially
transport systems contribute to resource depletion and adverse envi­ those living in traffic-congested cities like Lagos and Port Harcourt are
ronmental impacts (Ahanchian and Biona, 2014). This can be attributed exposed to air pollution that contributes to cardiovascular and respira­
to the combustion of fossil fuels in transportation and the inefficiency of tory diseases and exacerbates poverty conditions in the country (Odogun
vehicle engines (Dulal et al., 2011). Presently, the transport sector ac­ and Georgakis, 2019). Addressing these pressing challenges in Nigeria
counts for around 20% of global energy consumption and the sector is transport sector will require innovative and transformative policy re­
highly dependent on fossil fuels like gasoline and diesel (Prasad and forms. Beyond finances, a major obstacle to facilitating sustainable
Raturi, 2018). The emissions from the sector have grown from about development of the Nigerian transport system is the lack of adequate
13.5% of global CO2 emissions in 2005 (Anderson et al., 2007), to about information by Nigerian decision-makers about the possible implica­
25% in 2016 (IEA, 2016). Forecasts have shown that transport emissions tions and benefits that different policy pathways could deliver.
by 2050 could reach twice the levels in 2010 (Marchal et al., 2011). Despite the challenges facing Nigerian transport, the sector is not
Driven by rapid population growth, urbanisation, and increased per without ambition. In recent years, the Federal Government of Nigeria
capita incomes, the number of vehicles in Nigeria is strongly growing (FGN) has shown its commitment to implement policies and strategies to
and this will contribute to increased fossil fuel demand and resultant develop a safe, secure, affordable, and sustainable transport system in
CO2 emissions. The Nigerian transport sector is dominated by gasoline the country. It developed the National Energy Masterplan (NEMP) (ECN,
and diesel (Gujba et al., 2013). The energy demand of Nigerian transport 2014), which outlined many programmes for the transport sector.
has been varying over the years and has increased at a Compound However, the design of any transport policy needs to be informed by
Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.68%, from 166 PJ (PJ) in 1990 to quantitative assessments that take into account the impacts of
around 368 PJ in 2012 (Fig. 1). Roads are the major mode of motorised low-carbon pathways on the energy system.
transport in Nigeria. It accounts for more than 90% of both passenger Over the years, studies investigating sustainable energy pathways for
and freight movements in terms of distance (km) travelled (Oni, 2010). the transport sector have increased. This is because of the increased
In Nigeria, inspection and maintenance of vehicles are usually absent or pressure faced by policymakers and motorists to shift away from fossil
insufficient. Moreover, a significant share of Nigeria’s vehicle fleet fuel-based transportation to cleaner fuels due to the related adverse

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (M.O. Dioha).
1
More information available at https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/sustainabledevelopmentgoals.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2020.101034
Received 5 August 2019; Received in revised form 27 February 2020; Accepted 27 February 2020
Available online 11 March 2020
0957-1787/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
M.O. Dioha and A. Kumar Utilities Policy 64 (2020) 101034

environmental impacts and energy security issues. Energy system for China and the USA. Tscharaktschiew and Hirte (2012) used the
models are effective tools that can be used to explore long term sus­ Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the efficiency,
tainable energy pathways for the future energy system in order to inform environmental, and distributional impacts of enhancing different types of
low-carbon development policies (Dioha, 2017). Upon scanning the passenger transport subsidies. Zhang et al. (2018) coupled the AIM/­
relevant literature, we found a plethora of research on the sustainable transport model with the AIM/CGE model and argues that carbon price
energy transition of the transport sector using a series of models. Earlier and mitigation costs are modified in the hybrid model. Limanond et al.
studies on this topic include Martínez-jaramillo et al. (2017), who used (2011) used log-linear and feed-forward neural network models to
the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) to examine project the energy demand of Thailand transport from 2010 to 2030.
the impacts of transport policies (Metro de Medellin) on CO2 emissions The foregoing studies demonstrate the level of knowledge in
in the Medellin metropolitan area, Columbia. Using LEAP, He and Chen advancing research frontiers in low-carbon transition for the transport
(2013) investigated possible strategies to reduce energy demand and sector. An in-depth look at this literature reveals that only a few studies
GHG emissions for the Chinese transport. With LEAP, Ahanchian and have analysed the co-benefits of low-carbon transport (Dhar and Shukla,
Biona (2014) carried out a study to investigate the energy demand and 2015; Selvakkumaran and Limmeechokchai, 2015). Only a few studies
environmental implications of the Manila transport system in the have evaluated the impacts of a carbon tax on the transport system
Philippines. A similar study was conducted by Peng et al. (2015) and He (Selvakkumaran and Limmeechokchai, 2015; Zhang et al., 2016). This is
and Qiu (2016) for the Chinese transport system. Still, in China, LEAP an important low-carbon development instrument that is
was also employed by Yan and Crookes (2009) to evaluate a BAU and a under-researched in many developing economies. To our knowledge, in
Best-case scenario for the country’s transport sector up to 2030. In Fiji, Nigeria, there is no academic work using an energy system model to
Prasad and Raturi (2018) used LEAP to examine different cleaner quantify the impacts of different policy pathways on the transport en­
transportation strategies. Similarly, in Greece, LEAP was used to eval­ ergy system. Hence, our study will serve as a seminal work in this area
uate a number of decarbonisation scenarios for the Greek road transport for the country and can provide the impetus for meaningful debate on
(Tsita and Pilavachi, 2017). Hong et al. (2016) used LEAP to x-ray the sustainable development of the country’s transport sector.
effectiveness of the South Korean GHG reduction roadmap for transport The primary purpose of this research is to investigate the energy
on energy demand and GHG emissions. In Iran, LEAP was combined system implications of different low-carbon development strategies for
with EnergyPLAN model to explain a general framework for long term the Nigerian transport sector. Specifically, this research seeks to:
energy and environmental planning of the transport sector in developing
countries (Sadri et al., 2014). � construct a bottom-up energy system model for the Nigerian trans­
In a different study, the Asia–Pacific Integrated Assessment Model/ port sector
Enduse (AIM/Enduse) model was employed to analyse the mitigations � examine the future trend of transport energy demand for alternative
achievable through different low-carbon measures and emission taxes in policy pathways
Thailand (Selvakkumaran and Limmeechokchai, 2015). Using the Global � evaluate the impacts of alternative transport policy pathways on
Multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) model, Gül et al. (2009) investigated the environmental emissions
role of hydrogen energy and biofuels for the transport sector based on
scenario analysis. Another study by Dhar and Shukla (2015) used the This study contributes to this domain by first introducing a new
Market Allocation (MARKAL) model to investigate sustainable technology-rich bottom-up model for Nigerian transport. The study
low-carbon scenarios for Indian transport. Similarly, using the MARKAL departed from the conventional simulation modelling frameworks like
model, the ground transport system of Madrid, Spain was analysed to LEAP by taking advantage of TIMES, an optimisation modelling frame­
understand the energy consumption pattern of different types of vehicles work in order to understand the impact of a carbon tax on Nigeria’s
(Contreras et al., 2009). However, Lee et al. (2013) deviated a little by transport system. Unlike many other approaches found in the literature,
using a hybrid approach to combine the MARKAL model with a system we analyse the co-benefits of sustainable energy transitions of the
dynamics model. Zhang et al. (2016) used The Integrated transport sector from the perspective of air pollutants mitigation, energy
MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model to examine the impact of a car­ security, and productive uses of energy. It goes further by advancing the
bon tax on transport service and energy demands as well as CO2 emissions understanding of transport sustainability in one of the least developed

Fig. 1. Time trend of Nigerian transport sector energy consumption (ECN, 2013).

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M.O. Dioha and A. Kumar Utilities Policy 64 (2020) 101034

countries and by extension, the least developed regions of the world. All 2.1. Transport service demands
in a bid to articulate the nature of sustainable transitions in the transport
sector, we explore the policy implications of the different policy path­ Nigerian transport service demands have been determined for two
ways for both the government, motorists, and ordinary citizens. Finally, end-use services, passenger and freight transport. To estimate the end-
the analytical framework used in this study could be adopted by other use service demands, we separately classify the transport technologies
developing regions of the world to evaluate energy and GHG mitigation for the two modes of transport.
strategies in the land transport sector. While this research is regarded as Technologies for passenger transport are as follows:
a preliminary attempt, the case study reported here will provide
necessary insights to inform low-carbon transport policies in Nigeria and � Motorcycle
by extension Africa. � Private car
The rest of this article is structured as follows: Section 2 describes the � Taxi
approach and methodology used in the analysis. Section 3 presents the � Light bus
numerical results of the model and analysis. Section 4 highlights the � Coach
policy options based on the rigorous modelling assessments, while � Passenger train
conclusions from the study as well as further research areas are pre­
sented in Section 5. Technologies for Freight transport are as follows:

2. Methodology � Truck
� Freight train
We use the TIMES model generator to construct a model for the land
transport sector of Nigeria. TIMES is a bottom-up technology-rich Estimation of future transport sector end-use demands is plagued by
model, developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy data gaps. There are no consistent statistical records of historically
Technology System Analysis Programme (ETSAP).2 TIMES, is a multi- registered vehicles in Nigeria. Data from the office of the National Bu­
period techno-economic partial equilibrium model that can be used to reau for Statistics (NBS) shows wide variations of categories of regis­
build sectoral, single region, multi-region, or global energy system tered vehicles within the last two decades with some years having no
models for medium to long-term planning. Additionally, TIMES is an record. Hence, a bottom-up methodology has been used to estimate
optimisation model that uses a linear programming algorithm and as­ future passenger and freight transport demands. Accordingly, the travel
sumes a perfect foresight to generate a cost-optimal energy system under demand for each of the technology classes has been estimated through
specific user-defined constraints (e.g., emissions cap, market penetra­ Equation (2) (TERI, 2006).
tion of technologies, and resource availability). The model code is
PKmty or TKmty ¼ Vty � Oty � Uty (2)
written in the General Algebraic Modelling Software (GAMS) and it is
freely available for download. The overall objective of the TIMES model
PKmty ​ and ​ TKmty represent the passenger (in passenger kilometres)
is to minimise the total discounted cost of the energy system. TIMES
and freight (in tonne kilometres) travel demands respectively by the
objective function is shown in Equation (1).
technology type t in the year y; Vty the total number of vehicles on road;
X
R X �REFYR Oty the load factor, which is measured as the average number of persons
(1)
y
NPV ¼ 1 þ dr;y � ANNCOST ðr; yÞ per vehicle; and Uty the average annual utilisation factor, which is
r¼1 y2YEARS
measured as the total km travelled by a vehicle type per year.
Here, NPV represents the objective function of TIMES (i.e. the net Future projections of the number of road passenger vehicles in
present value of the total cost of all regions); R the number of regions in Nigeria up to 2035 are obtained from an earlier study of the world bank
the study area; YEARS the set of years in the model for which there are while we extrapolate the values to 2050 (Cervigni et al., 2013). The
costs; dr;y the discount rate; REFYR the reference year for discounting; average load factors are adapted from the report of statistical indicators
and ANNCOST ðr; yÞ the total annual cost in region r and year y. of the performance of public transport in Africa (UITP/UATP, 2010).
TIMES is one of the most prominent energy system modelling pack­ The average annual utilisation factors of vehicle categories are obtained
ages and it has been used in over 70 countries.3 A key benefit of TIMES is from a survey of Nigerian vehicle population conducted by the National
that it allows the analysts to explore numerous and different types of Institute of Transport, Zaria (Akintayo, 2012). The data on railway
future scenarios (both technological and policy) for the energy system. To passenger demand has been forecast from historical World Bank data4
establish a model based on the TIMES modelling framework, the user is and freight travel demands data is obtained from ECN (2015). It is
required to specify the energy service demands, available energy important to state that the average vehicle load factors and average
resource, demand and supply technologies, techno-economic parameters annual utilisation factors used here may change in the future and this
of demand and supply technologies, and environmental emission factors. poses some caveats in our analysis. Determining future load and uti­
Examples of the techno-economic parameters include technology effi­ lisation factors of vehicles are very uncertain as these factors basically
ciencies, investment costs, and operation and maintenance costs. TIMES depend on the travel behaviours of Nigerian citizens, which are also
computes the total final energy demand, emissions, and demand and uncertain on their own. Table 1 presents the future projections of
supply technologies deployment. Energy service demand (or transport Nigeria’s travel demand for different categories of transport mode as
demand in this case) is the most important data for building a model arrived from Equation (2).
based on TIMES and it will be discussed in detail in section 2.1. A detailed
description of TIMES is provided in Loulou et al. (2016). In this analysis,
2.2. Technologies, energy sources, and CO2 emission factors
we build a TIMES model for Nigerian land transport for a period of
40-years (2010–2050), using a discount rate of 10% for all costs (ECN,
A list of the transport technologies and their techno-economic data
2015). The overall methodological framework is shown in Fig. 2.
for passenger and freight movements modelled in our study to satisfy the
afore-determined transport demands are presented in Appendix A
(Table A1). The passenger transport technologies include electric and
2
More information on ETSAP available at https://iea-etsap.org/.
3
Applications of TIMES model available at https://iea-etsap.org/index.php
4
/applications. https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/nigeria/indicator/IS.RRS.PASG.KM.

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M.O. Dioha and A. Kumar Utilities Policy 64 (2020) 101034

Fig. 2. General study framework.

Table 1
Projections of Nigerian transport demand.
Billion Passenger kilometres (BPKm) Billion Tonne kilometre (BTKm)

Motorcycle Private car Taxi Light bus Coach Passenger train Truck Freight train

2010 43.3 268.8 77.8 2.6 12.0 0.8 67.3 0.7

2015 68.2 354.3 131.1 4.5 20.2 1.9 131.1 3.0
2020 93.2 441.3 184.3 6.3 28.4 3.0 191.4 6.9
2025 135.6 633.2 281.9 9.6 43.5 5.3 248.1 12.4
2030 177.9 798.5 379.4 12.9 58.6 7.5 301.3 19.5
2035 231.5 1027.6 507.8 17.3 78.4 8.6 350.9 28.2
2040 286.7 1261.9 640.6 21.8 98.9 9.7 397.0 38.5
2045 341.6 1486.0 772.6 26.3 119.3 10.8 439.5 50.3
2050 396.5 1625.1 904.7 30.7 139.6 11.9 478.5 63.8

gasoline motorcycles, gasoline, and diesel cars, hybrid cars, electric cars, sector is assumed to be supplied by the central grid. Cost data on Nigerian
diesel, and electric trains. For freight transport, we model trucks that run grid electricity is obtained from Roche et al. (2017), whereas the future
on diesel, biodiesel, and compressed natural gas (CNG) as well as diesel prices of fossil fuels are obtained from the U.S. Energy Information
and electric freight trains. Cost data on transport technologies have been Administration annual energy outlook 2018.9 Intergovernmental Panel
obtained from two online car shopping sites in Nigeria5,6. In some cases, on Climate Change (IPCC) standard emission factors for CO2 are taken as
local data were not available, so we also obtained data from South Af­ 68.61, 72.60, and 55.82 kilotons/petajoule (ktCO2/PJ) for gasoline,
rican TIMES model7 and the IEA ETSAP energy technology database.8 diesel, and CNG respectively (Nguyen, 2005). We use a grid-emission
For the supply side of our model, we include conventional and non- factor of 163 ktCO2/PJ, which was adapted from a Clean Development
conventional fuels. The main conventional sources of transport fuel in Mechanism (CDM) project of the United Nations Framework Convention
Nigeria are gasoline and diesel. However, other fuels such as CNG, bio­ on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Nigeria (UNFCCC, 2006).
diesel, and bioethanol were also modelled. Electricity for the transport Using the aforementioned information, TIMES-Nigeria-Transport
(TINITRANS) model is established and the simplified reference energy
system is shown in Fig. 3.

5
https://www.cheki.com.ng/.
6
https://car.com.ng/.
7
http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/groups/esap/satim.
8 9
https://iea-etsap.org/index.php/energy-technology-data. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/.

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M.O. Dioha and A. Kumar Utilities Policy 64 (2020) 101034

2.3. Low-carbon transition scenarios of CNG and biodiesel respectively are made, while trains are assumed to
have 5% of the fleet electrified by 2050. All other assumptions are kept at
In its quest to support the global efforts in addressing climate change the REF scenario levels.
and ensure sustainable development in the country, the FGN developed Improved fuel economy (IFE): Every year, over 60,000 vehicles are
the NEMP in 2014. In order to reduce the fossil fuel consumption of the imported into Nigeria and around 85% of these vehicles are used vehi­
sector and, in turn, mitigate CO2 emissions, the NEMP outlined different cles (Agbo, 2011). Some of the vehicles have passed their economic life
policies and programs for the transport sector and they can be sum­ span and are not meant to be on the Nigerian roads as they relatively
marised as four key measures. The first is the change of vehicle fuels and consume more fuels and emit harmful air pollutants such as CO and SO2
technologies and the second is vehicle fuel-economy improvement. The (Udeozor and Nzeako, 2012). This implies that the efficiency of Nigerian
third measure is a modal shift and finally, the improvements in transport vehicle fleets is well below the levels in Europe. Driven by higher de­
logistics especially for the freight transport system. The main purpose of mand for personal mobility and the social status it conveys, the Nigerian
the scenario analysis here is to investigate the effectiveness of these fleet of private cars is expected to increase drastically from about 4.7
policies from the perspective of energy demand and CO2 emissions million in 2010 to around 38.2 million by 2050, which is roughly a
reduction. Accordingly, beyond the reference scenario, we will build sevenfold increase in 40 years.11 Thus, transport emissions are expected
alternative low-carbon scenarios based on strategies enshrined in the to rise in the future if countermeasures are not put in place. Despite this
NEMP for the transport sector. Despite not being one of the policies in anticipated growth of vehicles and the Euro II standards introduced in
the NEMP, the study heads on to look at a carbon tax scenario for the the country, the vast majority of Nigerian vehicle fleet presently do not
Nigerian transport sector. A conservative and realistic approach was conform to any emission standards (Cervigni et al., 2013). Additionally,
adopted for the scenarios considered. Moreover, all the scenarios ana­ beyond the current Euro II standard, there are no other CO2 emission
lysed are based on the simple assumption that the costs of technologies standards for Nigerian vehicles (Cervigni et al., 2013). The FGN is aware
do not change over the modelling timeframe. of this and has announced plans in the NEMP to improve the fuel
Reference (REF): Establishing the reference scenario is the first task in economy of Nigerian vehicle fleets and bring them to levels at par with
energy system modelling and scenario analysis, as it provides the baseline those of the developed or Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
for comparing the results of the alternative scenarios (Dioha and Kumar, Development (OECD) countries. Recent global fuel economy progress
2020). As earlier stated, TIMES is an optimisation model and as such, the report shows that the average fuel economy of new vehicles in the OECD
least-cost energy system configuration that it will provide may not region improved by 20% between 2005 and 2013, which is a result of
necessarily reflect the current reality of the Nigerian transport system. the vehicle fuel economy policies implemented in the OECD countries
This is due to the fact that passengers or motorists do not always make (GFEI, 2016). For this reason, this research attempts to reflect the
transport decisions based on cost. Consequently, constraints were added progress of the OECD countries as well as experts’ judgements; the FTS
to the model to regulate technologies uptake within the modelling ho­ scenario is constructed on the premise that Nigerian passenger vehicles’
rizon. The REF scenario is established under the assumption that only the average fuel economy will improve by 20% in 2030, 50% in 2040, and
current technologies are available for the model to choose from within 90% in 2050 relative to the 2010 levels. All other assumptions are kept
the modelling timeframe, with gradual improvements in the efficiencies at the REF scenario levels.
of the vehicles (0.2% annual improvements for non-Organisation for Modal shift (MDS): The modal shift strategy is a widely applied
Economic Co-operation and Development countries) based on the cur­ method to reduce an economy’s dependence on private vehicles. Public
rent expectations and consistent with past trends as seen in the relevant modes of transport, such as light buses, coaches, and trains, tend to emit
literature (GFEI, 2016), as well as stakeholders’ opinion.10 less CO2 emissions when compared to private cars. In Europe and other
Fuel and technology switching (FTS): In Nigeria, around 99% of the ve­ developed regions of the world, intra-city and inter-city buses and trains
hicles run on fossil fuel (gasoline and diesel). However, the country is have been providing transport services for passengers (Chunark et al.,
endowed with other relatively low-carbon alternatives such as natural gas, 2015). For passenger transport, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has the capacity
which can be used to power the transport sector in the form of CNG (Giwa to transport a large number of persons effectively due to the efficient and
et al., 2017; Ogunlowo et al., 2015). The country also has abundant dedicated infrastructures that permit vehicles to ply the same routes in a
biomass feedstock, which can be converted into various kinds of liquid day. Additionally, the introduction of large buses and trains in Nigerian
biofuels for the transport sector (Ben-Iwo et al., 2016). The NEMP en­ cities will go a long way to reduce the number of private cars on the road
compasses a declaration for the Nigerian transport sector to shift towards that will, in turn, enhance traffic conditions. For freight transportation,
low-carbon fuels. The NEMP also highlighted the plans of the FGN to adopt the modal shift strategy involves the transfer of freight from trucks to
electric vehicles later in the future as well as other hybrid technological train. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation
options. Many developing countries across the world, such as India and Official has reported a saving of 2.5 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2)/year
Pakistan, are successfully using CNG vehicles already (Khan et al., 2016), by shifting around 10% of freight transported by truck to train (Nealer
while in Brazil, around 88% of the total number of vehicles been licensed in et al., 2012). Currently, over 90% of Nigerian freight is carried by road
the country use flexible fuels like bioethanol and biodiesel blends (Belin­ because of the neglect of the country’s rail infrastructures since the
canta et al., 2016). To put words into numbers and explain how fuel 1980s (Amba and Danladi, 2013; ECN, 2015). The NEMP proposes to
switching can reduce energy demand and CO2 emissions, the following move passengers to dedicated and organised public transport system
assumptions are made for the FTS scenario starting after 2020. For (bus, coach, and train) as well as a shift of freight from road to rail,
motorcycle, it is assumed that 10% of the fleet will be electric by 2050. The which can significantly drop energy demand and CO2 emissions. For
successful rollout of CNG will ensure that by 2050, 40% of the private cars modelling purpose, the following assumptions were made. By 2050,
will run on CNG, while 2% will be electric, 10% bioethanol and at least 40%, 10%, and 5% of private car passengers will be carried by light
30% gasoline. In 2050, 55% of taxis will be running on CNG, 0.5% electric, buses, train, and bicycle respectively. In the same year, 30% of taxi
15% bioethanol, and at least 20% gasoline. For light bus, 40% CNG, 10% passengers will be transported by train. The scenario also assumes that
biodiesel, 40% gasoline, and at least 1% diesel and 1% electric. For coach, 50% of the current freight will be carried by train by 2050. All other
we assume 50% for CNG, 15% gasoline, 5% biodiesel, and at least 15% assumptions are kept at the REF scenario levels.
diesel and 0.5% electric. For trucks, assumptions of at least 30% and 10% Logistics improvement (LDT): Though there are several interventions
to improve the logistics involved in the entire land transport system, in

10
Based on our discussions with stakeholders in the Department of Climate
11
Change, Federal Ministry of Environment, Abuja, Nigeria. Based on our extrapolations from (Cervigni et al., 2013).

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M.O. Dioha and A. Kumar Utilities Policy 64 (2020) 101034

Fig. 3. Simplified structure of TINITRANS model.

this scenario, logistics improvements are applied for only freight trans­ fuel consumption. For instance, pilot studies have shown that main­
portation. To reduce CO2 emissions, freight needs to be carried in an taining a constant speed and less-intensive braking and acceleration can
efficient and organised way. Adapted from the NEMP, two interventions drop fuel consumption by about 20% (Gonder et al., 2011). Accordingly,
are considered for trucks (i) reducing empty-running time and (ii) driver we develop the LDT scenario based on the assumption that driver
training program. One of the major differences between freight and training programs will be implemented in Nigeria and this will, in turn,
passenger transport is that passengers usually come back to their improve truck fuel efficiency by 10%, 20%, and 25% in 2030, 2040, and
respective starting points, whereas freight consignments that are trans­ 2050, respectively. All other assumptions are kept at the REF scenario
ported usually move in a single direction, i.e., from the place of pro­ levels.
duction to the place of consumption (McKinnon and Ge, 2006). This Carbon tax (CTX): Although it is not part of the strategies considered
unique feature of freight transportation creates a serious logistic chal­ for the transport sector in the NEMP, we attempt to experiment and see
lenge as it is difficult to find backloads for trucks returning to the places the impact of carbon tax implementation on the Nigerian land transport
of freight production. Consequently, trucks tend to return empty in the system. To achieve the same, all constraints were removed from the
absence of backloads and this situation critically hampers the efficiency model to allow the selection of the cheapest technologies under a carbon
of the freight-transport system since it translates to wasted resources tax scenario. Carbon pricing has been identified as one of the strategies
(fuel), and can sometimes become an environmental liability (McKinnon to cut down CO2 emissions and there is now an increased emphasis for
and Ge, 2006). There have been efforts to reduce the empty-running countries to align their policy frameworks to ensure coherence with
time of freight vehicles at national and local levels. For instance, carbon pricing mechanisms (WB, 2018). While many European Union
Tesco, the objective was to reduce CO2 emissions of each case of freight countries have carbon markets that are growing, currently, no African
transported by 50% through a reduction of the empty-running time of country has a carbon market (WB, 2018). However, in 2018, the South
vehicles (Cervigni et al., 2013). In this scenario, we assume that the African government tabled a carbon tax bill before its parliament to
current inefficient logistics in Nigeria will be better managed and the enable the country to achieve its Nationally Determined Contributions
empty-running time of trucks will drop significantly and this will reduce (NDC), but it is yet to be seen when the bill will become a law.12 Some
the annual tonne kilometre (tkm) of trucks by 40% in 2050, relative to developing and transitioning economies like Chile, Argentina, Mexico,
the base year levels. Furthermore, surveys have shown that the driving
pattern of truck drivers have a strong influence on vehicle fuel con­
sumption (Gonder et al., 2011). Hence, training programs have been 12
https://www.esi-africa.com/south-african-finance-minister-tables-ca
established to teach truck drivers on how to drive efficiently to reduce rbon-tax-bill/.

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M.O. Dioha and A. Kumar Utilities Policy 64 (2020) 101034

and China have started or have serious plans underway to implement transport sector per unit of the sector’s gross domestic product (GDP)
carbon pricing. Analysis shows that the carbon tax of the developing (PJ/mil. US$). CapES represents the energy demand differences between
countries is in the range of US$0/ton to US$15/ton (WB, 2018). To the REF and low-carbon scenarios per unit of population (PJ/mil. Per­
model this scenario, we expect that implementing a carbon pricing son). CI represents the total CO2 emissions per unit of transport GDP
policy in Nigeria would face numerous challenges as it is not one of the (kgCO2/US$), and CapCE the total amount of CO2 emissions per person
present sustainable development strategies of the country. Accordingly, (tCO2/person) (Chunark et al., 2015). Energy security is an issue that is
we assume that a carbon tax of US$1/ton will come into force in 2025 of serious geopolitical concern and has many other indicators beyond
and will increase to US$10/ton by 2050. All other assumptions are kept the ones listed here (Selvakkumaran and Limmeechokchai, 2015).
at the REF scenario levels. Accordingly, the current menu of indicators is not exhaustive but can be
used in assessing the energy security implications for different scenarios
2.4. Co-benefits of low-carbon scenarios of Nigerian transport.

Apart from reducing energy demand and CO2 emissions, a significant 2.4.3. Productivity
but understudied component of low-carbon development is its co- There is no doubt that energy plays a pivotal role in socio-economic
benefits. In Nigeria, co-benefits have rarely received any attention in development. However, in Nigeria, access to modern forms of energy for
energy policy formulation and as such, much work has not been done in basic services, such as lighting, is still a problem (Dioha and Emodi,
this area in the country. This can be linked to the common opinion about 2019). Thus, the productive use of energy in Nigeria is expected to drive
the challenges or difficulties involved in quantifying them. Alternative economic growth and increase employment opportunities for the
development pathways will usually involve significant investment in teeming unemployed youths as well as reduce the migration of the poor
low-carbon technologies but the actual cost may be different if the co- rural dwellers to urban centres (Cabraal et al., 2005). Given the limited
benefits are factored in. Policymakers are sometimes reluctant to pur­ resources available in the country, productive use of energy becomes
sue low-carbon projects owing to their limited understanding of energy paramount when analysing the co-benefits of energy transitions. Here,
transitions co-benefits that are capable of addressing other sustainable productivity is underscored as travel energy effectiveness. This measure
development objectives such as improved urban air quality, better has been derived from the literature (Cerqueira et al., 2012). In our
public health, energy security, and improved Balance of Payment as a analysis, it is measured as the ratio of energy demand for passenger or
result of reduced energy imports (Karim et al., 2017). Realising the twin freight transport per unit of the transport service demand (i.e., pkm and
goals of shifting away from a carbon-intensive transport as well as tkm for passenger and freight travels respectively) (Selvakkumaran and
harnessing its co-benefits will require providing policymakers with Limmeechokchai, 2015).
quantitative estimates of the impacts of sustainable transport policies on
other components of development. In this study, the co-benefits of the 3. Numerical results and analysis
low-carbon scenarios considered include local air pollutants mitigation,
energy security, and productivity (Selvakkumaran and Limmeechok­ 3.1. Final energy demand
chai, 2015).
The final energy demand results of the REF and low-carbon scenarios
2.4.1. Local air pollutants mitigation are shown in Fig. 4. In the REF scenario where there are no significant
Local air pollutants are emitted from the internal combustion of fossil
fuels in vehicle engines. They deteriorate the local air quality and, in
Table 2
turn, affect human health negatively. Airborne tiny particles can trigger Local air pollutant emission factors of vehicles (ARAI, 2008; CPCB, 2000; GAINS
the risk of developing strokes, heart failure, and myocardial infarctions Model, n.d.).
while deposition of fine particulate matter in the lungs coming from
Fuel Vehicle type Air pollutant emission factor (kt/PJ)
vehicle exhausts promotes systemic pro-inflammatory responses
(Huboyo et al., 2017). Hence, there is a need for implementing appro­ CO
Gasoline Motorcycle 7.200
priate measures to curtail air pollutant emissions from the transport
Other vehicles 2.760
sector. We consider the mitigation of the following air pollutants: CO Diesel Private cars 0.257
(carbon monoxide), NOX (nitrogen oxides), PM2.5 (particulate matter), Coaches 0.855
and SO2 (sulphur dioxide) due to the low-carbon pathways. Determining Trucks 0.855
transport pollution emission factors is quite tedious and this can be the Trains 0.001
Other vehicles 0.257
reason for the absence of such studies for Nigeria. Transport air pollut­ CNG All vehicles 0.710
ants emission factors will depend on the type of vehicle, the age of the NOX
vehicle and the type of fuel it uses (Seo et al., 2016). Additionally, Gasoline Motorcycle 0.108
transport air pollutant emission factors are affected by the traffic con­ Other vehicles 0.249
Diesel Private cars 0.350
ditions of the environment as well as the level of speed of the vehicles
Light bus 0.350
(Selvakkumaran and Limmeechokchai, 2015). However, computation of Truck & Coach 0.904
Nigeria’s vehicles local air pollutant emission factors is beyond our Train 0.001
scope. For our analysis, we obtained air pollutant emission factors from CNG All vehicles 0.053
other sources and they are presented in Table 2. PM2.5
Gasoline Motorcycle 0.006
Other vehicles 0.001
2.4.2. Energy security Diesel Private cars 0.140
Energy security is defined by the IEA as “the uninterrupted availability Light bus 0.048
of energy sources at an affordable price” (IEA, 2020). It can also be Coach 0.051
Truck 0.028
referred to as the capacity of a country to ensure the availability of
Train 0.064
energy supply in a consistent and sustainable manner (APERC, 2007). CNG All vehicles –
The energy security indicators we analysed encompass energy intensity SO2
(EI), per capita energy saving (CapES), CO2 emissions intensity (CI), and Gasoline All vehicles 2.230
per capita CO2 emissions (CapCE) (Selvakkumaran and Limmeechok­ Diesel All vehicles 9.200
CNG All vehicles 0.025
chai, 2013). The EI refers to the final energy consumption of the

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M.O. Dioha and A. Kumar Utilities Policy 64 (2020) 101034

technological changes, final energy demand is expected to increase at a reductions respectively, compared to the REF scenario.
CAGR of 5% from 346 PJ in 2010 to around 1270 PJ and 2439 PJ in These results have some elements of uncertainty owing to the factors
2030 and 2050 respectively; i.e., 2.7 and sixfold increase in years 20 and that were undermined in the projections of transport service demands as
40, respectively. Comparing the results of the low-carbon scenarios to well as the general uncertainties involved in long term energy system
the REF case, our analysis indicates that the final energy demand of the modelling. Thus, our results should not be taken as absolute values but
FTS scenario will decrease by 138 PJ in 2050, which is equivalent to a should be seen as average expected values based on the assumptions
5.7% reduction in comparison with the REF case. This is because of the characterising each scenario.
changes in vehicle fuel types in that scenario. With the adoption of Fig. 5 shows the shares of different vehicle categories in the final
efficient vehicles with better fuel economy, analysis of the IFE scenario energy demand. In the base year of the REF scenario, private cars ac­
results show that final energy demand is projected to fall by 168 PJ in count for the largest share of final energy consumption with about
2030 and 1044 PJ in 2050; these values correspond to 13.2% and 42.8% 48.5%. This is followed by trucks, taxis, motorcycles, coaches, light
reductions respectively, compared to the REF scenario. Owing to buses, freight train, and the passenger train with shares of 26.6%,
changes in the mode of transport by Nigerians, the results of the MDS 19.4%, 4.4%, 0.6%, <0.5%, <0.5%, and <0.5% respectively. However,
scenario analysis indicate that the final energy demand is projected to in 2050, the share of private cars and trucks in final energy consumption
decrease by 193 PJ in 2030 and 657 PJ in 2050; representing 15.2% and falls to about 38.4% and 24.8% respectively, while the share of taxis
26.9% reductions respectively, when compared with the REF case. With rises to around 29.6% due to the slight increase in the demand for taxis
better logistics and adequate transport management in Nigeria as per the by 2050.
LDT scenario, our analysis of model results shows that final energy de­ In the alternate low-carbon scenarios, the share of final energy de­
mand, in comparison to the REF scenario, is projected to drop by about mand varies across different categories of vehicles due to the policy and
175 PJ and 290 PJ in 2030 and 2050 respectively. These values also technology changes in the transport sector. Specifically, the results show
represent 13.8% and 11.9% energy savings relative to the REF case. that by 2050, the share of private cars concerning final energy con­
Finally, our analysis of the CTX scenario where the impact of intro­ sumption is expected to be 37.3%, 38.3%, 23.7%, 43.6%, and 35% for
ducing a carbon tax was considered shows that final energy demand is the FTS, IFE, MDS, LDT, and CTX scenarios respectively. The share of
expected to fall by 141 PJ in 2030 and 331 PJ in 2050, 11.1% and 13.6% private cars in final energy consumption for the alternate low-carbon
reductions respectively, compared to the REF scenario. It may also be scenarios are all lower than the initial share in the REF scenario. Our
recalled that all constraints were removed from the model in this sce­ analysis also shows that trains (freight and passengers) are the least
nario and all categories of technologies were allowed to move freely to consumers of energy in the REF and low-carbon scenarios. Detailed in­
the cost-optimal energy system configuration. Analysis indicates that the formation on energy demand projections of vehicle categories is re­
model selects the CNG private cars, CNG taxis, CNG coaches, and CNG ported in Fig. 6.
light buses ahead of other vehicle technologies. This can be attributed to
the abundance of natural gas in Nigeria and its relatively cheaper price 3.2. CO2 emissions projections
compared to other transport fuels (Giwa et al., 2017). For rail move­
ment, the model selects electric trains ahead of diesel trains for both For the REF scenario, the model results indicate that CO2 emissions
passenger and freight movements. This is because of the higher effi­ are expected to grow at a CAGR of 5% from 24.1 MtCO2 in 2010 to
ciency of electric trains that, in turn, reduces the amount of energy around 88.8 MtCO2 in 2030 and 170 MtCO2 in 2050, which is about 2.7
consumed as well as the cost of fuel. However, for motorcycles, the and sixfold increases in 20 and 40 years respectively. The following
model selects gasoline motorcycles in the initial years and after 2025, reports the comparison of the low-carbon scenarios to the REF scenario
electric motorcycles were seen to dominate. The late introduction of (Fig. 7). Our analysis of the FTS scenario indicates that CO2 emissions
electric motorcycles might be because of its relatively higher cost from the transport sector will fall by 0.4 MtCO2 in 2030 and 20.4 MtCO2
compared to the gasoline type and also the source of electric power in 2050, which is equivalent to 0.5% and 12% reductions respectively in
supply in Nigeria, which is carbon-intensive. comparison to the REF scenario. The CO2 emissions reduction of the FTS
To advance our understanding of the scenarios, the combined (CMB) scenario is due to the introduction of CNG, bioethanol, and biodiesel
scenario was constructed to study the energy system impacts of imple­ vehicles to the transport system. These fuels contain less carbon when
menting all the policies considered here (i.e., REF scenario minus the compared to conventional gasoline and diesel fuels that dominate the
total energy savings in the low carbon scenarios) (Fig. 4). A carbon tax REF scenario. Analysis of the IFE scenario indicates that CO2 emissions
was excluded as it is not part of the strategies enshrined in the NEMP. are expected to fall by 11.7 MtCO2 in 2030 and 72.8 MtCO2 in 2050,
Analysis of the results suggests that the final energy demand of the CMB values that represent 13.2% and 42.8% savings when compared to the
scenario is projected to decrease by 534 PJ in 2030 and 2129 PJ in 2050 REF case. These significant CO2 emissions reductions in IFE scenario are
compared to the REF case; these values also represent 42.1% and 87.3% because of the projected improvement in fuel economy of vehicles that,
in turn, reduces the amount of gasoline and diesel that is combusted and
as such, reducing CO2 emissions.
For the MDS scenario, the analysis shows that CO2 emissions will fall
by 13.8 and 45.9 MtCO2 in 2030 and 2050 respectively, which corre­
sponds to reductions of 15.5% in 2030 and 27% in 2050. The CO2
emissions here can be attributed to the changes in the mode of transport
in this scenario. As already known, trains and bus rapid transit systems
tend to be more energy-efficient than private car systems and thus, a
significant amount of energy is saved by this modal switch that, in turn,
drives the reductions of CO2 emissions in the MDS scenario. We show
that when freight logistics are improved and truck drivers are trained
properly as per the LDT scenario, CO2 emissions will fall by about 12.7
MtCO2 in 2030 and 21.1 MtCO2 in 2050; in comparison to the REF case,
these values are equivalent to CO2 emissions mitigation of 14.3% and
12.4% respectively.
Finally, analysis of the CTX scenario indicates that CO2 emissions are
Fig. 4. Final energy-demand projections for all scenarios. expected to reduce by 22.8 MtCO2 in 2030 and 45.8 MtCO2 in 2050,

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Fig. 5. Share of final energy demand by vehicle types for all scenarios.

values that represent 25.7% and 26.9% savings when compared to the decrease in 2050 by about 34.4%, 43%, 28.2%, 26.6%, and 99.5% for
REF scenario. This is because of the additional cost placed on the carbon- the FTS, IFE, MDS, LDT, and CTX scenarios respectively, in comparison
intensive fuels as tax, and this makes the model to select fuels that have with the REF case.
the least CO2 emissions during combustion. Similarly, as it was done for From the foregoing results, some common inferences can be drawn.
final energy demand, we look at the impact of combining the policy Firstly, we observe that local air pollutants emissions increase in 2050
scenarios (CMB scenario) on CO2 emissions, in exception of the CTX above the base year levels in all scenarios in exception of the CTX sce­
scenario. Our analysis suggests that CO2 emissions will fall drastically by nario. Additionally, it is observed that local air pollutants in the alter­
38.8 MtCO2 in 2030 and about 160.1 MtCO2 in 2050; these are 43.7% native low-carbon scenarios reduce up to 2050 relative to the REF
and 94.2% reductions respectively, in comparison to the REF scenario. scenario. We also find that for the four types of local air pollutants
considered here, emissions reductions are largest in the CTX scenario.
3.3. Co-benefits results These results imply that our low-carbon scenarios will bring an
improvement in the air quality of Nigerian cities well-above the situa­
3.3.1. Air pollutants emissions tion in the REF case.
Fig. 8 illustrates the emissions of local air pollutants under all sce­
narios. In the REF scenario, as anticipated, CO emissions increases from 3.3.2. Energy security analysis
834 kt in 2010 to around 6023 kt in 2050, which is more than sixfold The energy security indicators of the Nigerian transport sector are
increase when compared to the base year level. However, with the presented here in terms of energy intensity (EI), per capita energy saving
implementation of strict emissions norms and other energy consumption (CapES), CO2 emissions intensity (CI), and per capita CO2 emissions
reduction policies in the alternative scenarios, our analysis indicates that (CapCE) in order to see how they are affected by low-carbon transport
CO emissions will fall in 2050 by 30%, 42,7%, 25.5%, 4.1%, and 75.8% strategies. It is worth noting that the smaller the values of EI, CI, and
for the FTS, IFE, MDS, LDT, and CTX scenarios respectively, compared to CapCE, the better energy security is achieved whereas, the higher the
the REF scenario. While analysing the results of NOX emissions, we find values of CapES, similarly, energy security is boosted.
that it will also increase in the REF scenario from 145 kt in 2010 to Energy intensity (EI), per capita energy saving (CapES): The results of
around 993 kt in 2050. In the low-carbon scenarios, NOX emissions are the EI and CapES are illustrated in Fig. 9. The analysis shows that in the
seen to reduce in 2050 by 32.1%, 43.4%, 39.1%, 26.5%, and 89% for REF scenario, EI is expected to reduce by 1.3% and 60.5% in 2030 and
FTS, IFE, MDS, LDT, and CTX scenarios respectively, relative to the REF 2050 respectively when compared to the base-year value of 0.076 PJ/
case. The significant NOX emissions reduction is due to the emissions mil. US$. This is because of the higher CAGR of transport GDP when
countermeasures implemented in this scenario. compared to the projected CAGR of transport final energy demand by
For PM2.5, the model result indicates that its emissions will increase 2050. Thus, the results show that even under the REF case, the economic
in the REF case from approximately 4 kt to about 25 kt in 2010 and 2050 growth of the transport sector is gradually being decoupled from the
respectively; about fivefold increase in 40 years. However, owing to the energy demand of the sector, which is also partly attributed to the
low-carbon strategies in our alternative scenarios, analysis reveals that gradual efficiency improvements of the transport sector. Further anal­
PM2.5 emissions will fall for FTS, IFE, MDS, LDT, and CTX scenarios by ysis shows that in the alternative low-carbon scenarios, by 2050, EI is
about 24%, 44%, 52%, 32%, and 100%, respectively, when compared expected to fall by 6.7%, 43.3%, 26.7%, 13.0%, and 14.7% in the FTS,
with the REF scenario. There is zero emission of PM2.5 in the CTX sce­ IFE, MDS, LDT, and CTX scenarios respectively, in comparison with the
nario and this can be attributed to the absence of gasoline and diesel REF case. With respect to CapES, our analysis shows that with the energy
consumptions in this scenario. The analysis of SO2 emissions shows that consumption reduction strategies implemented, CapES will increase
the pollutant is expected to increase from 1455 kt in 2010 to around significantly across the alternative low-carbon scenarios considered in
10,031 kt in 2050 in the REF scenario. Predictably, SO2 emissions this study (Fig. 9).

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Fig. 6. Final energy demand by vehicle types for all scenarios.

CO2 emissions intensity (CI), and per capita CO2 emissions (CapCE): respectively, corresponding to around 2.1% and 48.2% reduction rela­
Fig. 9 reports the results of the CI and CapCE of the Nigerian transport tive to the base year levels. The future reductions of CI values are
sector. In the REF scenario, CI is projected to reduce from 5.33 kgCO2/ because of the same reasons outlined earlier for the EI case. For the low-
US$ in 2010 to about 5.33 and 2.76 kgCO2/US$ in 2030 and 2050 carbon scenarios, our analysis reveals that CI in 2050 will drop by about

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M.O. Dioha and A. Kumar Utilities Policy 64 (2020) 101034

14.3%, 42.8, 27%, 12.4%, and 27% for the FTS, IFE, MDS, LDT, and CTX
scenarios respectively, in comparison with the REF scenario. Opposite to
the CI, analysis indicates that in the REF scenario, CapCE will increase
from 0.15 tCO2/person in 2010 to around 0.34 and 0.43 tCO2/person in
2030 and 2050 respectively; these values are approximately 100% and
200% increases when compared to the 2010 value. The projected CapCE
increase is due to the projected larger CAGR of CO2 emissions when
compared to that of the population. Consequently, this rapid CapCE
increase needs to be addressed in the coming years to keep Nigerian
transport properly on track in the low-carbon transition. However, in
our low-carbon scenarios, by 2050, our analysis suggests that CapCE will
reduce significantly across the low-carbon scenarios in comparison with
the REF case.
All of the indicators used to evaluate energy security in this study
show a remarkable positive improvement in all scenarios except the REF
case of CapCE. All of the low-carbon scenarios analysed show good
Fig. 7. CO2 emissions projections for all scenarios. prospects for energy security in the future. Thus, the numbers shown by
these indicators should not be considered as mere numbers but should
be taken into account when developing low-carbon development stra­
tegies for the Nigerian transport sector. Moreover, the co-benefits due to

Fig. 8. Local air pollutant emissions projections for all scenarios.

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M.O. Dioha and A. Kumar Utilities Policy 64 (2020) 101034

Fig. 9. Energy security indicators projections for all scenarios.

energy security are essential in running a successful transport system in explained by the improvements in transport logistics in the LDT scenario
the context of climate change mitigation. dedicated to the freight-travel mode only. The present results are
important for Nigerian policymakers as productivity of energy is a key
3.3.3. Productivity issue in the country’s energy transition.
Fig. 10 shows the productivity of passenger and freight travels. As
underscored earlier, productivity here refers to the effective utilisation 4. Discussion, options, and priorities for the future
of energy in the transport sector. Smaller values indicate better pro­
ductivity of travel. Analysis indicates that in the REF scenario, passenger The modelling assessments indicate that there is a large scope for
travel productivity will increase from 0.63 PJ/bpkm in the base year to reducing transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Nigeria
0.59 PJ/bpkm in 2050—around 6.3% improvement of passenger pro­ through the implementation of different low-carbon measures. Looking
ductivity in 40-years. Our analysis suggests that the low-carbon sce­ ahead, this study has a set of implications for policymakers, motorists,
narios will witness better productivity with the IFE scenario having the and Nigerian citizens. However, it is important for Nigeria to look within
maximum value of 0.33 PJ/bpkm in 2050, which is about 44% increase its national circumstances to see what options are available and feasible
in passenger travel productivity in comparison to the REF case. A similar for a low-carbon transport system because, economic resources are
trend is observed for freight travel productivity. Results indicate that in limited in the country as the government is struggling to cater for other
the REF scenario, freight travel productivity is expected to grow by 17% pressing issues such as poverty eradication, quality education, and
in 40-years, from 1.36 PJ/btkm to 1.24 PJ/btkm and 1.13 PJ/btkm in electricity access. Thus, future priorities for improving the sustainability
2030 and 2050 respectively. Remarkable improvements are seen in the of the transport should fall within the grasp of the FGN and Nigerians.
low-carbon scenarios, but in this case, the LDT scenario recorded the
maximum productivity with 0.60 PJ/btkm, about 47% freight travel
productivity improvement when compared to the REF case. This can be

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M.O. Dioha and A. Kumar Utilities Policy 64 (2020) 101034

Fig. 10. Productivity of Nigeria transport sector for all scenarios.

4.1. Promoting CNG and other alternative fuels economy if the transport sector was running on the locally sourced CNG
and biofuels. Thus, it is advised that the FGN should start making
Strategies aimed at promoting sustainable transport in Nigeria may rational decisions with respect to fuel use in the transport sector.
be complementary or conflicting, depending on what policymakers wish
to reduce. In the FTS scenario, it was seen that a shift to CNG and bio­ 4.2. Policies for efficient vehicles
fuels relatively have no massive impact on energy demand reduction but
will significantly mitigate CO2 emissions by about 12% in 2050. The The modelling results indicate that improving fuel economy (i.e. the
CTX scenario also showed that CNG will be an economically viable fuel IFE scenario) will have the maximum impact on energy demand and CO2
even when CO2 is priced. From the perspective of cutting down CO2 emissions. Improving vehicle fuel economy has the potential to reduce
emissions, Nigeria can exploit its abundant natural gas resources for the transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions by about 42.8% in
short term. CNG releases less CO2 emissions during combustion when 2050 (Figs. 4 and 7). Thus, policymakers need to adopt mandatory fuel
compared to gasoline and diesel. Nigeria has a natural gas reserve of economy standards as well as drive the process of its implementation. It
around 182 trillion cubic feet (TCF) and makes foreign earnings from may be recalled that most of the vehicles used in Nigeria are imported
natural gas exports (Odumugbo, 2010). However, less than 1% of from developed countries and the average age of the Nigerian vehicle
Nigerian vehicles currently run on CNG (Ogunlowo, 2016). There have fleet is about 14 years. In Nigeria, the Euro II standard has been adopted
been previous efforts to introduce CNG vehicles in Nigeria. For example, earlier but many motorists do not abide by these laws. This is because
in 2010, Nigerian Independent Petroleum Company in collaboration most of the vehicles that meet the emission standards are relatively
with the Nigeria Gas Company established 6 CNG fuelling stations in Edo expensive and are well above the income levels of many Nigerians.
State, Nigeria (Cervigni et al., 2013). Some gasoline and diesel buses Hence, there is a need for the FGN to develop local vehicle
have also been converted to CNG. Expanding this program to cover the manufacturing plants that can produce new cars within the income
36 states of Nigeria would require massive investments in CNG filling levels of Nigerians or provide some kind of subsidies for Nigerians to
stations in the country. The government can realise this project through purchase newer vehicles from abroad that meet the emission standards.
private sector participation in the program. Additionally, despite the Additionally, stricter new emission standards such as Euro III and IV
potential of biofuels to reduce the carbon footprint of Nigerian trans­ need to be introduced in the country and accompanied by policies that
port, the 2007 biofuel policy of the FGN has made only a little progress will discourage the import of inefficient vehicles. Such policies should
(Ohimain, 2013a). Construction of 20 factories for bioethanol has include border inspection works as well as routine nationwide vehicle
commenced but at a slow pace. With the current pace of work, it is maintenance inspection programs.
unlikely that Nigeria will exploit its potential of biofuels in the near
future except if the government revert this trend (Ohimain, 2013b). 4.3. Encouraging modal shift
Consequently, the FGN should provide more financial incentives such as
tax waivers to woo investors to come into the Nigerian biofuels industry. The modelling assessment suggests that modal shift alone can drop
Another policy for the biofuel industry is the renewable energy mandate. energy demand and CO2 emissions by about 27% in 2050 (Figs. 4 and 7),
Nigeria is an oil-producing state occupied by many oil-producing com­ meaning that buses and trains are more environmentally friendly op­
panies such as Shell, Total, and Chevron. Thus, the government can tions than private cars. This option does not necessarily require huge
mandate these companies to produce a specific share of biofuels or blend direct financial investments from the side of Nigerian citizens, but will
them with diesel and gasoline. These measures will go a long way to require the government to provide robust incentives for the bus and
promote biofuels in the country. Finally, Nigeria spends around NGN2.4 train transport for better results. For instance, the BRT system currently
billion (about US$6.6 million) on gasoline and diesel subsidy per day.13 in operation in Lagos state could be extended to other parts of the
This money can be used to improve other sectors of the nation’s country. The ban on motorcycles in major cities like Abuja can also be
extended to other cities where the ban is yet to come as this will
encourage passengers to patronise buses. The government need to
13
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/06/fuel-subsidy-hits-n2-4bn-daily/. continue the rail rehabilitation and expansion projects that it has started

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M.O. Dioha and A. Kumar Utilities Policy 64 (2020) 101034

and the light rail system recently commissioned in Abuja should also be year levels by 2050. Hence, a triangulation of the regulatory policies
built in other states.14 Some researchers (Gujba et al., 2013) argued that should be promoted if deep decarbonisation of the Nigerian transport
this will not only require massive investments but also opine that for the sector is desired. Particularly, a portfolio of policies, which simulta­
long term, rail transport seems to be a more sustainable option. Walking neously drives vehicle fuel-economy improvements and a modal shift
and cycling in Nigeria can also be encouraged as a strategy to reduce will be required for a smooth transition to a low-carbon future.
private car demand and improve the health conditions of Nigerians. The
main challenge to this policy is the lack of dedicated infrastructure. 5. Conclusions and outlook
Nigeria might copy countries like the Netherlands and Germany that
construct special lanes for bicycles on major roads. How to engage cit­ In view of our objectives, the following conclusions may be drawn.
izens and influence behavioural change is yet to be fully comprehended. Energy consumption and environmental emissions from Nigeria’s
One option is mass communication of the climate benefits coming from transport sector are expected to rise by 2050. Realising sustainability
modal shift via mainstream and social media. goals in Nigeria transport will involve structural and demand-side pol­
icies that can support technological innovations for improved fuel
4.4. Policies to reduce per capita CO2 emissions economy and alternative fuel development. It will also require strong
political will and serious transformative actions from the local com­
Our analysis on co-benefits of low-carbon transition shows that per munities to the federal government levels. These actions will require
capita CO2 emissions of the transport sector is expected to rise by about massive investments in public transportation and infrastructure for non-
200% in 2050 if no countermeasures are put in place (Fig. 9). This is motorised modes, such as walking and cycling, in order to reduce private
because of the projected increase in private car ownership levels by car use. It will also require Nigerians to move away from a car-centric
2050. In Nigeria, the aspiration of private car ownership is very high due mentality attitude to a people-centric mentality. Dedicated efforts will
to the social status it conveys and the inefficient public transport system also be required over the upcoming years as there will be societal bar­
(Salau, 2015). Consequently, we expect that increasing per capita in­ riers and limited institutional capacities in the low-carbon transition
come levels will increase the demand for private car ownership in the “agenda”. Additionally, we can infer that sustainable development of
future. Thus, mitigation of per capita CO2 emissions of the sector be­ Nigerian transport will require the implementation of aggregated or
comes pertinent and this can be achieved by disincentivising the use of portfolio of policies as well as regulations that enhance the efficient
private vehicles. Typical policies that the FGN can implement to curtail movement of people and goods without a corresponding impact on the
private car ownership include the total removal of the current gasoline environment. Given the multiplicities of actions required, a successful
subsidy, high taxation of vehicles, effective and subsidised public transition needs to be communicated effectively in policy discourse if
transport systems, strict licensing of private cars to prevent meaningful progress is to be made in the transport sector.
un-roadworthy cars, as well as road pricing schemes. Our study is not without limitations that future research could
address. The technology-rich bottom-up TINITRANS model considered
4.5. Developing a targeted carbon tax system in the near future only land transport. Analysis of air and water transport in Nigeria should
be investigated. Additionally, the bottom-up model did not represent
The modelling results (Fig. 7) further indicates that carbon tax can human behaviours in the adoption of transport mode. A robust transport
mitigate CO2 emissions by about 26.9% in 2050. This result implies that survey will be needed to study the travel habits of Nigerians and thus,
carbon tax can also go a long way to reduce the carbon footprint of future research could be expanded in order to determine modal shares
Nigerian transport. The relative changes in fuel prices owing to carbon endogenously within the model. The study did not also consider changes
tax contributes to fuel and technology choices that deliver lower CO2 in engine technologies or changes in biofuel blends such as Euro III and
emissions. Though it will be very difficult to implement this policy in B20 respectively. It will be worthwhile to see how these micro techno­
Nigeria, it is also a known fact that prices or economics control human logical changes would impact energy demand and CO2 emissions.
energy choices (Delzendeh et al., 2017). A future carbon tax policy in Though each scenario shows a considerable reduction in environmental
Nigeria will definitely increase the price of fossil-derived gasoline and emissions, we are not aware of the most economically viable option.
diesel and this will pave the way for alternative fuels like CNG and Thus, using a top-down approach, like the CGE model for economic
biofuels. As serious market competition for alternative fuels grows in implication, as well as a cost-benefit analysis of the scenarios is needed.
Nigeria, the prices are expected to drop even lower than the prices of While acknowledging these limitations, it is believed that the knowledge
conventional gasoline and diesel. Hence, Nigerians will tend to purchase emerging from this study will help policymakers evaluate the effec­
vehicles that run on alternative fuels, as it will be more financially viable tiveness of options for the transport sector for ensuring local sustainable
for them. development as well as satisfy international climate change agreements.

4.6. Coherent policies for the transport sector Declaration of competing interest

Though each of the policy pathways analysed showed some energy The authors have no competing interest to declare.
and CO2 emissions mitigation potentials, none of the individual policies
is enough to hold energy demand and CO2 emissions at the levels of the Acknowledgement
base year or even lower by 2030 and 2050 (Figs. 4 and 7). However, our
analysis shows that when the policies are combined (CMB scenarios), Gratefully, we acknowledge the contributions of the Department of
energy demand and CO2 emissions can even be reduced below the base Climate Change, Federal Ministry of Environment, Abuja, Nigeria.

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M.O. Dioha and A. Kumar Utilities Policy 64 (2020) 101034

Appendix A. Techno-economic assumptions of transport technologies

Table A1
Transport Sector - efficiency and investment cost assumptions for vehicles

Technology Description Efficiency Investment cost (mil. US Fixed O&M cost (mil. US Lifetime Base year share of
(BPkm/PJ) $/BPkm)-computed $/BPkm)-computed (Years) technology

Passenger - Motorcycle Gasoline 2.83 73.73 1.84 10 1.00

Passenger - Motorcycle Electric 8.10 115.20 2.88 10 0.00
Passenger - Priv. Car Battery electric 4.32 751.97 18.80 12 0.00
Passenger - Priv. Car Plug-in Hybrid 2.48 560.10 14.00 12 0.00
Electric (Gasoline)
Passenger - Priv. Car Plug-in Hybrid 2.50 577.24 14.43 12 0.00
Electric (Diesel)
Passenger - Priv. Car Nat. Gas 2.03 357.84 8.95 12 0.00
Passenger - Priv. Car Diesel Hybrid 2.13 432.97 10.82 12 0.00
Passenger - Priv. Car Diesel 1.52 373.98 9.35 12 0.02
Passenger - Priv. Car Gasoline Hybrid 2.24 415.87 10.40 12 0.00
Passenger - Priv. Car bioethanol IC 1.73 340.57 8.51 12 0.00
Passenger - Priv. Car Gasoline 1.60 325.26 8.13 12 0.98
Passenger - Taxi Electric 3.11 311.18 7.78 12 0.00
Passenger - Taxi Plug-in Hybrid Electric 2.20 231.78 5.79 12 0.00
(Gasoline)
Passenger - Taxi Plug-in Hybrid Electric 2.01 238.87 5.97 12 0.00
(Diesel)
Passenger - Taxi Nat. Gas 1.47 148.08 3.70 12 0.00
Passenger - Taxi Diesel Hybrid 1.54 179.17 4.48 12 0.00
Passenger - Taxi Diesel 1.10 154.76 3.87 12 0.01
Passenger - Taxi Gasoline Hybrid 1.62 172.09 4.30 12 0.00
Passenger - Taxi bioethanol IC 1.44 140.93 3.52 12 0.00
Passenger - Taxi Gasoline 1.16 134.60 3.36 12 0.99
Passenger - light bus Nat. Gas 1.39 70.81 1.77 12 0.00
Passenger - light bus Biodiesel IC 2.10 62.36 1.56 12 0.00
Passenger - light bus Diesel 2.09 80.47 2.01 12 0.05
Passenger - light bus Electric 3.03 106.68 2.67 12 0.00
Passenger - light bus Gasoline 2.23 64.38 1.61 12 0.95
Passenger - Coach Electric 8.39 31.57 0.79 18 0.00
Passenger - Coach Nat. Gas 3.86 28.06 0.70 18 0.00
Passenger - Coach Biodiesel IC 5.66 25.51 0.64 18 0.00
Passenger - Coach Gasoline 5.79 25.51 0.64 18 0.50
Passenger - Coach Diesel 5.79 25.51 0.64 18 0.50
Passenger - Train Electricity 11.37 2.64 0.07 35 0.00
Passenger - Train Diesel 5.83 3.12 0.08 35 1.00
Freight - Truck Nat. Gas 0.64 54.00 1.35 15 0.00
Freight - Truck Biodiesel IC 0.73 53.86 1.35 15 0.00
Freight - Truck Diesel 0.73 53.86 1.35 15 1.00
Freight - Train Diesel 5.83 6.88 0.17 35 1.00
Freight - Train Electricity 11.37 9.00 0.23 35 0.00

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