Financial Analysis & Forecasting Prepared by Matt H.

Evans, CPA, CMA, CFM

Purpose of Spreadsheet: active Wksh2

Wksh3 Wksh4
To illustrate concepts related to financial analysis and forecasting. Wksh5 Wksh6
The financial analysis uses a combination of ratios and industry averages to Wksh7 Wksh8
evaluate the financial performance of the company. Trend line graphs are also Wksh9 Wksh10
generated, comparing the company's performance with the industry averages. Wksh11 Wksh12
Finally, the historical information is used to prepare a set of pro forma Wksh13 Wksh14
financial statements using both linear and non-linear functions. Wksh15 Wksh16

Required Inputs:

You will need to collect financial statements for several reporting periods. If you
want to benchmark the performance against the industry, then you will also need
to collect industry averages. The spreadsheet is setup to capture five reporting
periods (annual, quarterly, monthly). All input fields are highlighted in yellow.
For best results, SEC Filings are suggested since these reports provide more
detail than published financial statements.

Note: A small red triangle in the upper right corner of a cell indicates that a comment has
been inserted. Point your mouse over the cell and the comment will appear.

If a cell appears in red, this indicates a warning concerning a calculation.

Worksheets:

This spreadsheet consists of the following worksheets, divided into three sections:

A) Input Worksheets for financial analysis using historical data:

Worksheet Title Purpose

2 General Input Enter general information here - used on several worksheets.
3 Balance Sheet Enter comparative balances sheets for up to five periods.
4 Income Statement Enter comparative income statements for up to five periods.
5 Cash Flow Statement Enter comparative cash flow statements for up to five periods.

Caution: If you enter less than five years of historical information, certain worksheet
formulas may have to be revised.
B) Output Worksheets for evaluating financial performance:
6 Key Financial Data Calculates key financial information for further analysis.
7 Ratio Analysis Calculates a series of ratios for further analysis.
8 Benchmark Analysis Compare ratio analysis to industry averages.
9 Horizontal Analysis Horizontal analysis with corresponding trend lines.
10 Vertical Analysis Common size financials in percentages and graphs.

C) Pro Forma / Forecasted Financials for Budgeting:

11 Pro Forma - Simple Set of pro forma financials using simple assumptions
12 Pro Forma - Regression Set of pro forma financials using linear trending
13 Pro Forma - Exponential Set of pro forma financials using exponential smoothing
14 Scenario Analysis Example of Scenario Analysis and Goal Seek Analysis
15 Budget Analysis Preliminary budget analysis
16 Final Budgets Set of budgets per various assumptions and forecasts.

Note: Some additional worksheets (Answer Reports 1 & 2) may appear in the spreadsheet
due to the running of Solver.
Macros:

No macros have been used in this spreadsheet to give everyone some assurance that no viruses
are contained in the spreadsheet. However, you are free to add your own macros to save time.
Tools > Macro > Record New Macro

Excel Functions:

This spreadsheet uses certain financial functions (such as =TREND) which might not be
found in your version of Microsoft Excel. To take full advantage of financial and statistical
functions, you should install the Add On package titled: Analysis TookPak. Go to the main
tool bar, select Tools => Add-Ins => check the Analysis TookPak option, insert your
Excel CD and install the Analysis ToolPak. Also, you might want to install the Solver
Add-in since this is useful for solving special forecasting issues (such as finding the
optimal exponential factor).

Compatibility:

This spreadsheet was created with Microsoft Excel 2000. Older versions of Excel (such as 97)
may not be compatible with this spreadsheet.
Corrections:
With any “attempt” to build an Excel Model, I can easily make some mistakes.
So if you have suggestions to make the model better, drop me an email
and I’ll be glad to improve the financial model. My email address is: [email protected]
 General Input Panel Home active
The following general information should be entered: Wksh3 Wksh4
Note: Sample data has been entered in the input cells to help you get started Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8
2-1 Name of Company =Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC Wksh9 Wksh10
Wksh11 Wksh12
2-2 Reporting Periods =>Annual (Annual, Semi-annual, Quarterly or Mon Wksh13 Wksh14
Wksh15 Wksh16
2-3 Number of Days in Reporting Period 365

What reporting periods will be entered?

2-4 Most Current Period 2023 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-5 Previous Period 2022 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-6 2nd Previous Period 2021 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-7 3rd Previous Period 2020 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-8 4th Previous Period 2019 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)

2-9 Number of historical periods to be analyzed 5

How are the amounts expressed in the financial statements?

(such as: in millions of dollars, thousands of Canadian dollars, etc.)
2-10 Billions of VND
 Home Balance Sheet for
>> > Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
<< < Billions of VND
End Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Ref Description 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Current Assets

3-1 Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,000 1,823 2,563 3,146 4,630
3-2 Short Term Marketable Securities 899 1,240 2,031 2,528 3,803
3-3 Accounts Receivable 5,447 6,219 8,662 9,734 11,240
3-4 Inventory 2,529 3,159 4,626 4,504 3,953
3-5 Other Current Assets 155 136 145 134 125
3-6 Total Current Assets 10,030 12,577 18,027 20,046 23,751

3-7 Fixed Assets 8,909 8,839 10,011 10,188 10,710

NonCurrent Assets

3-8 Accumulated Depreciation (4,730) (4,916) (5,490) (6,034) (6,529)

3-9 Net Fixed Assets 4,179 3,923 4,521 4,154 4,181
3-10 Longterm Investments 1,246 1,411 2,553 2,996 2,997
3-11 Investments in Other Companies 0 0 0 0 0
3-12 Intangibles and Other Assets 1,464 1,442 1,404 1,357 1,433
Total Non Current Assets 6,889 6,776 8,478 8,507 8,611
3-13 Total Assets 16,919 19,353 26,505 28,553 32,362

3-14 Accounts Payable 10,313 12,233 18,061 19,431 22,934

Currrent Liab

3-15 Short Term Borrowings 8,807 8,572 15,295 17,197 19,400

3-16 Short Term Portion of LT Debt
3-17 Other Current Liabilities 394 855 2,611 3,752 2,611
3-18 Total Current Liabilities 19,514 21,660 35,967 40,380 44,945

3-19 Longterm Debt / Borrowings 1,506 3,661 2,767 2,234 3,535

3-20 Other Longterm Liabilities 6 6 38 34 39
Total Non Current Liabilities 1,512 3,667 2,805 2,268 3,574
3-21 Total Liabilities 21,026 25,327 38,772 42,648 48,519

3-22 Preferred Equity 216 216 216 216 216

3-23 Common Equity 5,867 6,171 6,291 7,405 6,291
3-24 Additional Paid in Capital 6,712 6,712 6,770 6,770 6,770
Equity

3-25 Retained Earnings 281 843 1,434 655 1,434

Page 5
Equity
3-26 Adj for Foreign Currency Translations
3-27 Treasury Stock 0 0 0 0 0
3-28 Total Shareholder Equity 13,076 13,942 14,711 15,046 14,711

Total Liabilities & Equity 34,102 39,269 53,483 57,694 63,230

3-29 Check: Assets = Liab + Equity ? (17,183) (19,916) (26,978) (29,141) (30,868)
Comment => Not Balanced Not Balanced Not Balanced Not Balanced Not Balanced

3-30 NonDepreciable Fixed Assets 8,485 8,316 8,830 8,945 9,105

3-31 Deferred Taxes -109 -90 -202 -191 -206
3-32 Goodwill Write Off 0 0 0 0 0
3-33 No of Common Shares o/s 5,867 6,172 6,292 7,405 7,405
3-34 Par Value of Common Stock $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00
Additional Information

3-35 No of Preferred Shares o/s 216 216 216 216 216

3-36 Par Value of Preferred Stock
3-37 Market Price of Common Stock $22.65 $28.90 $37.05 $33.60 $29.40
3-38 Market Price of Preferred Stock $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
3-39 Preferred Dividends in Arrears 0 0 0 0 0
3-40 Liquidating value of Preferred Stk 0 0 0 0 0
3-41 Book Value per Share $2.23 $2.26 $2.34 $2.03 $1.99
3-42 Dividends per Common Share $0.23 $0.31 $0.39 $0.32 $0.31
3-43 Dividend Payout Ratio 4.95% 6.28% 6.55% 4.57% 3.85%
3-44 Cash Dividends to Preferred Stoc 0 0 0 0 0
3-45 Cash Dividends to Common Stock 1,330 1,918 2,461 2,354 2,329
3-46 Total Dividends Paid 1,330 1,918 2,461 2,354 2,329

Page 6
Page 7
 Home Income Statement for
>> > Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
<< < Billions of VND
End Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Ref Description 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
4-1 Net Sales 12,889 14,925 18,319 24,743 29,021
4-2 Other Operating Revenues 16 19 26 37 48
4-3 Total Revenues 12,905 14,944 18,345 24,780 29,069
Operating

4-4 Cost of Goods Sold 11,434 12,709 16,011 22,022 25,857

4-5 Other Operating Expenses (11) (13) (17) (22) (28)
4-6 Total Direct Expenses 11,423 12,696 15,994 22,000 25,829
4-7 Selling, General & Administrative 1,682 1,946 2,257 3,056 3,549
4-8 Operating Income 26,010 29,586 36,596 49,836 58,447

4-9 Interest Expenses 686 692 814 1,499 1,725

NonOperating

4-10 Foreign Exchange (Loss) Gain 4 1 24 (1) 16

4-11 Associated Company (Loss) Gain 19 23 33 (29) (2)
4-12 Other NonOperating (Loss) Gain (10) (8) (124) (17) 92
4-13 Income Tax Expense 150 134 172 114 102
4-14 Reserve Charges 23 102 35 55 49
4-15 Income Before Extra Ord Items 26,882 30,530 37,550 51,457 60,429

4-16 Extra Ordinary Items (Loss) Gain

4-17 Tax Effects of Extraordinary Items
4-18 Minority Interests
4-19 Net Income 26,882 30,530 37,550 51,457 60,429

4-20 Primary EPS $4.58 $4.95 $5.97 $6.95 $8.16

Earnings Before Int & Taxes 26,046 29,704 36,564 49,844 58,602
4-22 Depreciation & Amortization 465 454 510 589 570
4-23 Research & Devel Expenses 0 0 0 0 0
Other

4-23 Capitalized Interest Expense 3,845 3,496 3,500 3,172 2,951

4-24 Interest Income 49 48 107 68 92
4-25 Total Non Operating Expenses 872 944 954 1,621 1,982
4-26 Total Extra Ordinary Items 0 0 0 0 0
4-27 Tax Rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Page 8
Page 9
 Home Cash Flow Statement for
>> > Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
<< < Billions of VND
End Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period
Ref Description 2019 2020 2021 2022

5-1 Net Income 26,882 30,530 37,550 51,457

5-2 Depreciation and Amortization 465 454 510 589
Operations

5-3 (Increase) Decrease Defer Taxes (2) (19) 112 (11)

5-4 (Gain) Loss on Sale of Assets 0 0 0 0
5-5 (Increase) Decrease Current Assets (237) (2,547) (5,450) (2,019)
5-6 Increase (Decrease) Current Liab (159) 2,146 14,307 4,413
5-7 Cash Flow from Operations 26,949 30,564 47,029 54,429

5-8 Capital Expenditures (303) (348) (142) (262)

5-9 Acquisition in Other Co's 0 0 0 0
Investments

5-10 Proceeds from Sales of Assets 18 128 18 5

5-11 Purchases of Investments (1,885) (274) (2,072) (78)
5-12 Sale of Investments 1,258 37 27 4
5-13 Other Investment Activities 0 0 0 0
5-14 Cash Provided (Used) from Investmts (912) (457) (2,169) (331)

5-15 Proceeds from Borrowings 14,093 19,624 19,136 26,346

5-16 Payments on Borrowings (15,023) (18,400) (17,392) (25,819)
5-17 Dividends Paid to Shareholders (214) (329) (72) (78)
Financing

5-18 Proceeds from Minority Interest (1) 5 (1) 67

5-19 Issue Stock / Exercise Options 686 304 0 110
5-20 Purchase / Retire Common Stock 1,100 0 546 0
5-21 Other Financing Activities 0 0 0 0
5-22 Cash Provided (Used) from Financing 641 1,204 2,217 626

5-23 Increase (Decrease) to Cash 26,678 31,311 47,077 54,724

5-24 Beginning Cash Balance 1,005 1,000 1,823 2,563

5-25 Ending Cash Balance 27,683 32,311 48,900 57,287
5-26 Check: Should agree to Balance Sheet (26,683) (30,488) (46,337) (54,141)

Page 10
Comment => Not Balanced Not Balanced Not Balanced Not Balanced

Page 11
Annual
Period
2023

60,429
570
15
0
(3,705)
4,565
61,874

(640)
0
13
(920)
7
0
(1,540)

33,858
(29,549)
(78)
58
196
0
0
4,485

64,819

3,146
67,965
(63,335)

Page 12
Not Balanced

Page 13
 Home Key Financial Data for
>> > Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
<< < Billions of VND
End Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Ref Description 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

EBITDA :
4-15 Income before ExtraOrd Items 26,882 30,530 37,550 51,457 60,429
4-9 Interest Expense (686) (692) (814) (1,499) (1,725)
4-23 Capitalized Interest Expense (3,845) (3,496) (3,500) (3,172) (2,951)
4-13 Income Tax Expense (150) (134) (172) (114) (102)
4-14 Reserve Charges (23) (102) (35) (55) (49)
4-22 Depreciation and Amortization (465) (454) (510) (589) (570)
6-1 EBITDA 21,713 25,652 32,519 46,028 55,032

EBITDA Margin 168% 172% 178% 186% 190%

Cash Flow / Liquidity Indicators

Free Cash Flow:

5-7 Operating Cash Flow 26,949 30,564 47,029 54,429 61,874
5-14 Investment Cash Flows (912) (457) (2,169) (331) (1,540)
3-43 Preferred Dividends Paid (fixed) 0 0 0 0 0
5-16 Redemption of Fixed Obligations (15,023) (18,400) (17,392) (25,819) (29,549)
6-2 Other Critical Outlays (35) (45) (42) (30) (25)
6-3 Free Cash Flow 10,979 11,662 27,426 28,249 30,760

Working Capital:
3-6 Current Assets 10,030 12,577 18,027 20,046 23,751
3-18 Current Liabilities 19,514 21,660 35,967 40,380 44,945
6-4 Working Capital (9,484) (9,083) (17,940) (20,334) (21,194)

Liquid Capital:
3-1 Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,000 1,823 2,563 3,146 4,630
3-2 Marketable Securities 899 1,240 2,031 2,528 3,803
3-3 Accounts Receivable 5,447 6,219 8,662 9,734 11,240
6-5 Notes Receivable 0 0 0 0 0
3-18 Total Current Liabilities (19,514) (21,660) (35,967) (40,380) (44,945)
3-19 Long Term Debt (1,506) (3,661) (2,767) (2,234) (3,535)
 3-22 Preferred Equity (216) (216) (216) (216) (216)
6-6 Liquid Capital (13,890) (16,255) (25,694) (27,422) (29,023)

The following valuation indicators are very simple and basic; they are used as quick, rough estmates.

Market Capitalization:
6-7 Market Cap - Common Stk $132,888 $178,371 $233,119 $248,808 $217,707
6-8 Market Cap - Preferred Stk $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
6-9 Total Market Capitalization $132,888 $178,371 $233,119 $248,808 $217,707

Present Value:
6-10 Normalized Cash Flow Weight %'s 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 30.00% 40.00% 100.00%
6-11 Normalized Cash Flow 26,608
6-12 Number of Future Periods 15
Valuation Indicators

6-13 Required Rate of Return 11.00%

6-14 Present Value of Free Cash Flow $191,333
6-15 Present Value of Selling Price $315,000 <= estimated selling price $65,836
6-16 Present Value of Business $257,169

Revenue Multiplier:
4-3 Recent Gross Revenues 29,069
6-17 Average Competitive Rev Multiplier 3.14
Value based on Revenue Multiple $91,277

Capitalization of Earnings:
6-18 Normalized Net Income Weights % 5.00% 5.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 100.00%
6-19 Normalized Net Income 48,845
6-20 Capitalization Rate 12.00%
6-21 Nominal Growth Rate 3.50%
6-22 Net Capitalization Rate 8.50%
6-23 Value based on Earnings $574,651

6-24 Operating Leverage 1.15 1.18 1.18 1.13

Leverage

6-25 Financial Leverage 0.44 0.77 0.40 0.89

6-26 Total Leverage 0.50 0.91 0.47 1.01

Leverage 6-27 Check Totals 0.00 0.50 0.91 0.47 1.01

NOPAT / Operating Indicators:

6-28 Net Interest Expense After Tax 637 644 707 1,431 1,633
Operating Indicators

6-29 Interest Bearing Liabilities 10,313 12,233 18,062 19,431 22,935

6-30 NOPAT 26,245 29,886 36,843 50,026 58,796
6-31 Operating Working Capital (2,576) (3,574) (7,239) (8,811) (10,227)
6-32 Net Longterm Assets 6,883 6,770 8,440 8,473 8,572
6-33 Net Debt 8,414 9,170 13,468 13,757 14,502
6-34 Net Assets 4,307 3,196 1,201 (338) (1,655)
6-35 Net Capital 21,490 23,112 28,179 28,803 29,213
6-36 Operating ROA 609% 935% 3068% -14801% -3553%
6-37 Operating WC Turnover (5) (4) (3) (3) (3)

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 Home Ratio Analysis for
>> > Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
<< <
End Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Ref Title of Ratio 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

7-1 Acid Test Ratio 0.38 0.43 0.37 0.38 0.44

7-2 Current Ratio 0.51 0.58 0.50 0.50 0.53

7-3 Operating Cash Flow to Net Income 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.06 1.02

Liquidity Index:
7-4 Cash - Days Removed 0 0 0 0 0
3-1 Cash Balance 1,000 1,823 2,563 3,146 4,630
7-5 Cash Balance Total 0 0 0 0 0
Liquidity / Ability to Meet Obligations

7-6 Marketable Sec - Days Removed 11 12 16 15 14

3-2 Marketable Securities Balance 899 1,240 2,031 2,528 3,803
7-7 Marketable Securities Total 9889 14880 32496 37920 53242
7-22 Receivables - Days Removed 34 135 135 145 144
3-3 Receivable Balance 5,447 6,219 8,662 9,734 11,240
7-8 Receivable Balance Total 182,938 840,669 1,171,519 1,408,606 1,623,546
7-26 Inventory - Days Removed 79 (82) (89) (76) (60)
3-4 Inventory Balance 2,529 3,159 4,626 4,504 3,953
7-9 Inventory Balance Total 200,671 (258,024) (410,496) (340,781) (235,954)
7-10 Other - Days Removed 16 22 26 21 19
3-5 Other Current Assets Balance 155 136 145 134 125
7-11 Other Current Assets Total 2,480 2,992 3,770 2,814 2,375
7-12 Liquidity Index (Days) 39 48 44 55 61

Z Score:
7-13 1.2 x (working capital / total assets) (0.67) (0.56) (0.81) (0.85) (0.79)
7-14 1.4 x (retained earn / total assets) 0.02 0.06 0.08 0.03 0.06
7-15 3.3 x (EBIT / total assets) 5.08 5.07 4.55 5.76 5.98
7-16 .6 x (market value equity / b.v. debt) 52.94 29.23 50.55 66.82 36.95
7-17 .999 x (sales / total assets) 0.76 0.77 0.69 0.87 0.90
 7-18 Z Score 58.14 34.57 55.06 72.63 43.10

Receivable Turnover:
7-19 Credit Sales 11,520 15,750 20,080 23,200 26,500
7-20 Average Receivable Balance 1,060 5,833 7,441 9,198 10,487
7-21 Receivable Turnover 10.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5

7-22 Days Required to Collect A/R 34 135 135 145 144

Asset Management

Inventory Turnover:
7-24 Average Inventory Balance 1,046 2,844 3,893 4,565 4,229
7-25 Inventory Turnover 4.6 (4.5) (4.1) (4.8) (6.1)

7-26 Days in Inventory 79 -82 -89 -76 -60

7-27 Total Asset Turnover 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9

7-28 Operating Assets Ratio 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.86

7-29 Gross Profit Margin 189% 185% 187% 189% 189%

7-30 Operating Margin 202% 198% 200% 201% 201%

7-31 Net Profit Margin 208% 204% 205% 208% 208%

Profitability

7-32 Direct Cost to Operating Revenues -89% -85% -87% -89% -89%

Capitalization Rate / Asset Return:

7-33 Net Operating Income 26,010 29,586 36,596 49,836 58,447
7-34 Total Investments / Operating Assets 14,209 16,500 22,548 24,200 27,932
7-35 Capitalization Rate / Return 183.05% 179.31% 162.30% 205.93% 209.25%

7-36 Return on Shareholder Equity 209% 222% 259% 347% 417%

 7-37 Debt to Total Assets 1.24 1.31 1.46 1.49 1.50
Leverage
7-38 Debt to Common Equity 1.63 1.85 2.67 2.88 3.35

7-39 Times Interest Earned (38) (43) (45) (33) (34)

7-40 Price to Earnings (P/E) 4.9 5.8 6.2 4.8 3.6

Market

7-41 Price to Book Value 10.2 12.8 15.8 16.5 14.8

7-42 Stock Yield 1.00% 1.08% 1.06% 0.95% 1.07%

Home Wksh2 Benchmark Analysis for
Wksh3 Wksh4 Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 active You need to collect benchmark data on the respective industry for the subject company.
Wksh9 Wksh10 Enter the benchmark data in the appropriate input cells. This information is used to
Wksh11 Wksh12 generate trend line graphs in this worksheet. If you do not have any benchmark data,
Wksh13 Wksh14 then fill in the highlighted yellow cell with numeric zero "0". The "industry" line will be null
Wksh15 Wksh16 in the graph and show only the company specific ratio trend.

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

Period Period Period Period Period
Ref Description 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

8-1 Acid Test Ratio - Industry 0.51 0.52 0.50 0.49 0.48
7-1 Acid Test Ratio - Company 0.38 0.43 0.37 0.38 0.44

8-2 Current Ratio - Industry 1.12 1.10 1.05 1.08 1.07

7-2 Current Ratio - Company 0.51 0.58 0.50 0.50 0.53

8-3 Receivable Turnover - Industry 8.50 8.70 8.40 8.20 8.30

7-21 Receivable Turnover - Company 10.87 2.70 2.70 2.52 2.53

8-4 Days to Collect A/R - Industry 41 39 40 41 41

7-22 Days to Collect A/R - Company 34 135 135 145 144

8-5 Inventory Turnover - Industry 4.40 4.45 4.20 4.30 4.38

7-25 Inventory Turnover - Company 4.60 (4.47) (4.11) (4.82) (6.11)

8-6 Days in Inventory - Industry 86 88 81 89 82

7-26 Days in Inventory - Company 79 -82 -89 -76 -60

8-7 Asset Turnover - Industry 1.60 1.55 1.62 1.68 1.69

7-27 Asset Turnover - Company 0.76 0.77 0.69 0.87 0.90

8-8 Gross Profit Margin - Industry 55.00% 52.00% 60.00% 62.00% 63.00%
7-29 Gross Profit Margin - Company 188.71% 185.15% 187.40% 189.00% 189.10%

8-10 Net Profit Margin - Industry 20.00% 23.00% 22.00% 19.00% 20.00%
7-31 Net Profit Margin - Company 208.31% 204.30% 204.69% 207.66% 207.88%

8-11 Return on Total Assets - Industry 38.00% 36.00% 37.00% 34.00% 36.00%
8-12 Return on Total Assets - Company 30.00% 168.34% 163.77% 186.92% 198.40%

8-13 Return on Equity - Industry 26.00% 22.00% 24.00% 19.00% 20.00%

8-14 Return on Equity - Company 209.04% 222.42% 259.05% 346.98% 416.90%

8-15 Debt to Equity - Industry 35% 38% 31% 34% 32%

7-38 Debt to Equity - Company 163% 185% 267% 288% 335%

8-16 Times Interest Earned - Industry 40 38 36 39 43

7-39 Times Interest Earned - Company -38 -43 -45 -33 -34

We added the following two ratios to assess if the Company has excessive growth:
4-13 Provision for Taxes 150 134 172 114 102
8-17 Trading Ratio - Company 0.32 0.28 0.30 0.27 0.28
8-18 Trading Ratio - Industry 1.26 1.28 1.31 1.30 1.27

8-19 Net Sales to Net Worth - Company 0.97 1.06 1.23 1.63 1.96
8-20 Net Sales to Net Worth - Industry 1.22 1.20 1.19 1.22 1.20

Source for Benchmark Data: Almanac of Business and Industrial Financial Ratios by Leo Troy, Prentice Hall

Graphs appear below for each of the above comparisons:

Acid Ratio Comparison

0.6

0.5

0.4
Ratio

0.3 Acid Test Ratio - Industry

Acid Test Ratio - Company
0.2

0.1

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods
Ratio
0.3 Acid Test Ratio - Industry
Acid Test Ratio - Company
0.2

0.1

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Current Ratio Comparison

1.2

0.8
Ratio

0.6 Current Ratio - Industry

Current Ratio - Company
0.4

0.2

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Receivable Turnover Comparison

12

10
Turnover Rate

8
Receivable Turnover - Industry
6 Receivable Turnover -
Company
4

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods
 6 Receivable Turnover -

Turnov
Company
4

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Receivable Collection Comparison

160
140
Days to Collect A/R

120
100
Days to Collect A/R - Industry
80 Days to Collect A/R -
60 Company
40
20
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Inventory Turnover Comparison

6
4
Turnover Rate

2
0 Inventory Turnover - Industry
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
-2 Inventory Turnover - Company

-4
-6
-8

Periods
 -2

Turn
-4
-6
-8

Periods

Inventory Days Comparison

Days Held in Inventory 100
80
60
40
20 Days in Inventory - Industry
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Days in Inventory - Company
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Periods

Asset Turnover Comparison

1.8
1.6
1.4
Turnover Rate

1.2
1 Asset Turnover - Industry
0.8 Asset Turnover - Company
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods
Tur
0.4
0.2
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Gross Profit Margin

2
Gross Profit Margin 1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2 Gross Profit Margin - Industry
1 Gross Profit Margin -
0.8 Company
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Net Profit Margin

2.5
Net Profit Margin

1.5
Net Profit Margin - Industry
1 Net Profit Margin - Company

0.5

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods
 0.5

N
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Return on Total Assets

2.5

Return on Total Assets 2

1.5 Return on Total Assets -

Industry
1 Return on Total Assets -
Company
0.5

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Return on Equity Comparison

Return on Common Equity

2.5

1.5 Return on Total Assets -

Industry
1 Return on Total Assets -
Company
0.5

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods
Retu
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Debt to Equity Comparison

4
3.5

Debt to Equity Ratio

3
2.5
2 Debt to Equity - Industry
Debt to Equity - Company
1.5
1
0.5
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Times Interest Earned

50
Times Interest Earned

40
30
20
Times Interest Earned - Indus-
10 try
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Times Interest Earned -
-10 Company
-20
-30
-40
-50

Periods
 Trading Ratio Comparison
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
Ratio
Trading Ratio - Company
0.6 Trading Ratio - Industry

0.4
0.2
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Sales to Worth Comparison

2.5

1.5 Net Sales to Net Worth -

Ratio

Company
1 Net Sales to Net Worth -
Industry

0.5

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods
Home Wksh2 Horizontal Analysis for
Wksh3 Wksh4 Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8 Horizontal Analysis expresses change between periods as percentages for each account in
active Wksh10 the financial statements. The basic formula for horizontal analysis is:
Wksh11 Wksh12 % change = (most recent period - previous period) / previous period
Wksh13 Wksh14
Wksh15 Wksh16 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Ref Description 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

9-1 Growth in Net Sales 32.50% 15.80% 22.74% 35.07% 17.29%

9-2 Cost of Goods Sold 29.00% 11.15% 25.98% 37.54% 17.41%

9-3 Growth in Gross Profits 2.90% -1.89% 1.21% 0.85% 0.05%

9-4 Growth in Interest Expense 16.50% 0.87% 17.63% 84.15% 15.08%

9-5 Growth in Income Tax Expense 12.90% -10.67% 28.36% -33.72% -10.53%

9-6 Growth in Non Operating Expenses 3.80% 8.26% 1.06% 69.92% 22.27%

9-7 Growth in Minority Interest 96.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

9-8 Growth in Net Income 33.50% 13.57% 22.99% 37.04% 17.44%

9-9 Growth in Earnings Per Share 32.60% 7.96% 20.65% 16.44% 17.44%

9-10 Cash and Cash Equivalents 3.08% 82.30% 40.59% 22.75% 47.17%
9-11 Short Term Marketable Securities 12.00% 37.93% 63.79% 24.47% 50.44%
9-12 Accounts Receivable 26.70% 14.17% 39.28% 12.38% 15.47%
9-13 Inventory 19.90% 24.91% 46.44% -2.64% -12.23%
9-14 Other Current Assets 26.70% -12.26% 6.62% -7.59% -6.72%
9-15 Total Current Assets 21.50% 25.39% 43.33% 11.20% 18.48%

9-16 Net Fixed Assets 17.80% -6.13% 15.24% -8.12% 0.65%

9-17 Longterm Investments 6.20% 13.24% 80.94% 17.35% 0.03%
9-18 Investments in Other Companies 0.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
9-19 Intangibles and Other Assets 16.50% -1.50% -2.64% -3.35% 5.60%
9-20 Total Non Current Assets 32.50% -1.64% 25.12% 0.34% 1.22%

9-21 Growth in Total Assets 1.05% 14.39% 36.96% 7.73% 13.34%

9-22 Accounts Payable 26.20% 18.62% 47.64% 7.59% 18.03%

9-23 Short Term Borrowings 33.50% -2.67% 78.43% 12.44% 12.81%
9-24 Short Term Portion of LT Debt 16.70% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
9-25 Other Current Liabilities 12.80% 117.01% 205.38% 43.70% -30.41%
9-26 Total Current Liabilities 38.02% 11.00% 66.05% 12.27% 11.31%

9-27 Longterm Debt / Borrowings 46.00% 143.09% -24.42% -19.26% 58.24%

9-28 Other Longterm Liabilities 11.30% 0.00% 533.33% -10.53% 14.71%
9-29 Total Non Current Liabilities 37.10% 142.53% -23.51% -19.14% 57.58%

9-30 Growth in Total Liabilities 31.05% 20.46% 53.09% 10.00% 13.77%

9-31 Preferred Equity 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

9-32 Common Equity 2.60% 5.18% 1.94% 17.71% -15.04%
9-33 Additional Paid in Capital 1.50% 0.00% 0.86% 0.00% 0.00%
9-34 Retained Earnings 38.00% 200.00% 70.11% -54.32% 118.93%
9-35 Adj for Foreign Currency Translations -166.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
9-36 Treasury Stock 2.01% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

9-37 Growth in Total Equity (Net Worth) 6.11% 6.62% 5.52% 2.28% -2.23%

9-38 Sustainable Growth Rate #1 198.69% 208.45% 242.08% 331.11% 400.83%

9-39 Sustainable Growth Rate #2 10.34% 13.97% 16.98% 15.87% 16.07%

9-40 Growth in Market Capitalization 14.50% 34.23% 30.69% 6.73% -12.50%

Trend Line Graphs Appear Below for Selected Comparisons:

0.4
0.35
0.3
% Change

0.25
0.2
0.15
Growth in Net Sales
0.1
0.05
 0.4
0.35
0.3

% Change
0.25
0.2
0.15
Growth in Net Sales
0.1
0.05
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Periods

0.4
0.35
0.3
% Change

0.25
0.2
0.15
Cost of Goods Sold
0.1
0.05
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Periods

0.04
0.03
0.02
% Change

0.01
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Growth in Gross Profits
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
Periods

0.4
0.35
0.3
hange

0.25
0.2
 0.4
0.35
0.3

% Change
0.25
0.2
0.15
Growth in Net Income
0.1
0.05
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Periods

0.35
0.3
0.25
% Change

0.2
0.15
0.1 Growth in Earnings Per Share
0.05
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Periods

0.4
0.35
0.3
% Change

0.25
0.2
0.15
Growth in Total Assets
0.1
0.05
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Periods
 0.05
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Periods

0.08
0.06
0.04

% Change
0.02
Growth in Total Equity (Net
0 Worth)
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
-0.02
-0.04
Periods

4.5
4
3.5
3
% Change

2.5
2
1.5 Sustainable Growth Rate #1
1
0.5
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Period

0.4
0.3
0.2
% Change

0.1
Growth in Market Capitaliza-
0 tion
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
-0.1
-0.2
Periods
% Cha
0.1
Growth in Market Capitaliza-
0 tion
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
-0.1
-0.2
Periods
Home Wksh2 Vertical Analysis for
Wksh3 Wksh4 Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8 Vertical analysis expresses financial statements as percentages. On the Balance Sheet,
Wksh9 active Total Assets is assigned 100% and on the Income Statement, Total Revenues is assigned 100%.
Wksh11 Wksh12
Wksh13 Wksh14
Wksh15 Wksh16 expressed in percentages
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Ref Account Title 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

10-1 Cash and Cash Equivalents 5.91% 9.42% 9.67% 11.02% 14.31%
10-2 Short Term Marketable Securities 5.31% 6.41% 7.66% 8.85% 11.75%
10-3 Accounts Receivable 32.19% 32.13% 32.68% 34.09% 34.73%
10-4 Inventory 14.95% 16.32% 17.45% 15.77% 12.21%
10-5 Other Current Assets 0.92% 0.70% 0.55% 0.47% 0.39%
10-6 Current Assets 59.28% 64.99% 68.01% 70.21% 73.39%

10-6 Net Fixed Assets 24.70% 20.27% 17.06% 14.55% 12.92%

10-7 Longterm Investments 7.36% 7.29% 9.63% 10.49% 9.26%
10-8 Investments in Other Companies 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
10-9 Intangibles and Other Assets 8.65% 7.45% 5.30% 4.75% 4.43%
10-10 Non Current Assets 40.72% 35.01% 31.99% 29.79% 26.61%

10-11 Total Assets 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

10-12 Accounts Payable 60.96% 63.21% 68.14% 68.05% 70.87%

Balance Sheet

10-13 Short Term Borrowings 52.05% 44.29% 57.71% 60.23% 59.95%

10-14 Short Term Portion of LT Debt 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
10-15 Other Current Liabilities 2.33% 4.42% 9.85% 13.14% 8.07%
10-16 Total Current Liabilities 115.34% 111.92% 135.70% 141.42% 138.88%

10-17 Longterm Debt / Borrowings 8.90% 18.92% 10.44% 7.82% 10.92%

10-18 Other Longterm Liabilities 0.04% 0.03% 0.14% 0.12% 0.12%
10-19 Total NonCurrent Liabilities 8.94% 18.95% 10.58% 7.94% 11.04%

10-20 Total Liabilities 124.27% 130.87% 146.28% 149.36% 149.93%

 10-21 Preferred Equity 0.63% 0.55% 0.40% 0.37% 0.34%
10-22 Common Equity 17.20% 15.71% 11.76% 12.83% 9.95%
10-23 Additional Paid in Capital 19.68% 17.09% 12.66% 11.73% 10.71%
10-24 Retained Earnings 0.82% 2.15% 2.68% 1.14% 2.27%
10-25 Adj for Foreign Currency Translations 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
10-26 Treasury Stock 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
10-27 Total Equity 38.34% 35.50% 27.51% 26.08% 23.27%

10-28 Total Liabilities & Equity 162.62% 166.37% 173.79% 175.44% 173.19%

10-29 Total Revenues 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

10-30 Cost of Goods Sold -88.60% -85.04% -87.28% -88.87% -88.95%

Income Statement

10-31 Gross Profit 188.71% 185.15% 187.40% 189.00% 189.10%

10-32 Operating Expenses -12.95% -12.93% -12.21% -12.24% -12.11%

10-33 Non Operating Expenses -6.76% -6.32% -5.20% -6.54% -6.82%

10-34 Income Before Extra Ord Items 208.31% 204.30% 204.69% 207.66% 207.88%

10-35 Net Income 208.31% 204.30% 204.69% 207.66% 207.88%

10-36 Accounts Receivable to Revenues 42.21% 41.62% 47.22% 39.28% 38.67%

Current to Revenues

10-37 Inventory to Revenues 19.60% 21.14% 25.22% 18.18% 13.60%

10-38 Other Current Assets to Revenues 1.20% 0.91% 0.79% 0.54% 0.43%
10-39 Current Assets to Revenues 77.72% 84.16% 98.27% 80.90% 81.71%

10-40 Accounts Payable to Revenues 79.91% 81.86% 98.45% 78.41% 78.90%

10-41 Short Term Borrowings to Revenues 68.24% 57.36% 83.37% 69.40% 66.74%
10-42 Other Current Liabilities to Revenues 3.05% 5.72% 14.23% 15.14% 8.98%
10-43 Current Liabilities to Revenues 151.21% 144.94% 196.06% 162.95% 154.61%

Graphs for the Vertical Analysis appear below:

 Breakdown of Current Assets
0.8
0.7

% of Total Assets
0.6
Other Current Assets
0.5 Inventory
0.4 Accounts Receivable
0.3 Short Term Marketable Securi-
ties
0.2 Cash and Cash Equivalents
0.1
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Current / NonCurrent Assets

1.2

0.8
% of Total

0.6 Non Current Assets

Current Assets
0.4

0.2

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods
 0.2

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Breakdown of Current Liabilities

1.6

1.4

1.2
% of Total

1 Other Current Liabilities

0.8 Short Term Portion of LT Debt
Short Term Borrowings
0.6 Accounts Payable
0.4

0.2

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Liab & Equity to Total Assets

2
1.8
1.6
1.4
% of Total

1.2
1 Total Equity
0.8 Total Liabilities
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
% of Tota
1.2
1 Total Equity
0.8 Total Liabilities
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods

Major Cost Breakdown

2024

2023
% to Total Revenues

2022

2021
Account Title
2020

2019

2018

2017
1 2 3 4 5

Periods

Operating Cash Flow Trend

70000
g Cash Flow

60000

50000
Increase (Decrease) Current Liab
(Increase) Decrease Current Assets
40000
(Gain) Loss on Sale of Assets
30000 (Increase) Decrease Defer Taxes
 70000

Operating Cash Flow

60000

50000
Increase (Decrease) Current Liab
(Increase) Decrease Current Assets
40000
(Gain) Loss on Sale of Assets
30000 (Increase) Decrease Defer Taxes
Depreciation and Amortization
20000 Net Income

10000

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Periods
Home Wksh2 ProForma Financials (Simple Projection Model)
Wksh3 Wksh4 Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8
Wksh9 Wksh10 A set of pro forma (forecasted) financial statements are generated using the results of
active Wksh12 the historical analysis in the previous worksheets. Growth assumptions appear where
Wksh13 Wksh14 applicable. You can override any growth assumptions with your own rates.
Wksh15 Wksh16 This forecast is very simple and does not rely on any statistical methods.

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

Period Period Period Period Period
Ref Enter Your Forecast Periods => 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Pro Forma Income Statement

11-1 Gross Revenues 32,557 36,464 40,840 45,741 51,230

9-1 Growth Assumptions 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00%

11-2 Cost of Goods Sold 28,569 31,997 35,836 40,137 44,953

10-8 Growth Assumptions -87.75% -87.75% -87.75% -87.75% -87.75%

11-3 Operating Expenses 4,066 4,554 5,101 5,713 6,399

10-9 Growth Assumptions -12.49% -12.49% -12.49% -12.49% -12.49%

4-24 NonOperating Expenses (3,200) (3,200) (3,600) (3,600) (4,000)

4-25 ExtraOrdinary Items 650 650 650 700 700

11-4 Net Income 62,642 70,465 78,827 88,690 99,281

Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement

Sources of Operating Cash Flow:

11-5 Net Income 62,642 70,465 78,827 88,690 99,281
11-6 Depreciation and Amortization 470 490 500 520 550
11-7 (Increase) Decrease Defer Taxes 0 0 0 0 0
11-8 (Gain) Loss on Sale of Assets 15 9 2 3 6
 11-9 (Increase) Decrease Current Assets 14,961 (1,055) (1,181) (1,323) (1,482)
11-10 Increase (Decrease) Current Liab (33,550) 1,367 1,531 1,715 1,921

11-11 Operating Cash Flow 44,538 71,277 79,679 89,605 100,276

Investment Sources of Cash Flow:

11-12 Planned Sale of Assets 100 60 20 25 35
11-13 Planned Sale of Investments 2,200 2,100 1,900 1,800 1,700
11-14 Other Investment Sources to be used 0 0 0 0 0
11-15 Total Investment Sources of Cash 2,300 2,160 1,920 1,825 1,735

Planned Investments:
11-16 Capital Expenditures (3,500) (3,000) (3,100) (2,700) (2,600)
11-17 Acquisitions in Other Co's (500) (750) (1,200) (650) (350)
11-18 Purchases of Investments (3,000) (3,500) (4,500) (6,000) (7,000)
11-19 Total Investment Applications of Cash (7,000) (7,250) (8,800) (9,350) (9,950)

Cash Flow from Financing Activities:

11-20 Proceeds from Loans & Debt 1,300 1,000 950 750 650
11-21 Proceeds from Minority Interest 20 60 80 90 100
11-22 Other Financing Activities 0 0 0 0 0
11-23 Total Financing Sources of Cash 1,320 1,060 1,030 840 750

Cash Flow Applied for Financing:

11-24 Payments on Loans & Debt (1,500) (1,000) (600) (500) (500)
11-25 Dividends Paid to Shareholders (2,500) (3,000) (4,000) (5,500) (7,000)
11-26 Purchase / Retire Stock (2,000) (2,000) (1,500) (1,000) (500)
11-27 Other Financing Activities 0 0 0 0 0
11-28 Total Financing Applications of Cash (6,000) (6,000) (6,100) (7,000) (8,000)

11-29 Total Change to Cash 35,158 61,247 67,729 75,920 84,811

11-30 Beginning Cash Balance 4,630 39,788 101,035 168,764 244,684

11-31 Forecasted Ending Balance 39,788 101,035 168,764 244,684 329,496

Pro Forma Balance Sheet

11-32 Cash and Cash Equivalents 39,788 101,035 168,764 244,684 329,496
11-33 Short Term Marketable Securities 0 0 0 0 0
11-34 Accounts Receivable 3,256 3,646 4,084 4,574 5,123
11-35 Inventory 2,605 2,917 3,267 3,659 4,098
11-36 Other Current Assets 2,116 2,370 2,655 2,973 3,330
11-37 Total Current Assets 47,764 109,968 178,770 255,891 342,047

11-38 Fixed Assets 14,210 17,210 20,310 23,010 25,610

11-39 Accumulated Depreciation (6,999) (7,489) (7,989) (8,509) (9,059)
11-40 Net Fixed Assets 7,211 9,721 12,321 14,501 16,551
11-41 Longterm Investments 3,797 5,197 7,797 11,997 17,297
11-42 Investments in Other Companies 500 1,250 2,450 3,100 3,450
11-43 Intangibles and Other Assets 200 240 320 400 650
11-44 Total Non Current Assets 11,708 16,408 22,888 29,998 37,948

11-45 Total Assets 59,472 126,376 201,658 285,889 379,995

11-46 Accounts Payable 5,535 6,199 6,943 7,776 8,709

11-47 Short Term Borrowings 3,907 4,376 4,901 5,489 6,148
11-48 Short Term Portion of LT Debt 30 30 25 20 15
11-49 Other Current Liabilities 1,953 2,188 2,450 2,744 3,074
11-50 Total Current Liabilities 11,425 12,792 14,319 16,029 17,945

11-51 Longterm Debt / Borrowings 3,335 3,335 3,685 3,935 4,085

11-52 Other Longterm Liabilities 700 750 800 800 800
11-53 Total Non Current Liabilities 4,035 4,085 4,485 4,735 4,885

11-54 Total Liabilities 15,460 16,877 18,804 20,764 22,830

11-55 Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0

11-56 Common Equity 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200
11-57 Additional Paid in Capital 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700
11-58 Retained Earnings 61,576 129,042 203,869 287,059 379,340
11-59 Adj for Foreign Currency Translations (5,000) (4,000) (2,500) (1,500) (500)
11-60 Treasury Stock (2,000) (4,000) (5,500) (6,500) (7,000)
11-61 Total Equity 62,476 128,942 203,769 286,959 379,740

11-62 External Financing Required (EFR) (18,464) (19,443) (20,915) (21,835) (22,576)

Formula for Calculating EFR:

Assets to Sales - Historical 0.82
Projected Increase to Sales 3,488
Liabilities to Sales - Historical 1.55
Profit Margin 2.08
Retention Ratio (1 - Dividend Payout) 96.15%
External Financing Required (67,615)
Home Wksh2 ProForma Financials (Linear Trend Model)
Wksh3 Wksh4 Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8 A set of pro forma (forecasted) financial statements are generated using the results of
Wksh9 Wksh10 the historical analysis in the previous worksheets. A statistical method known as
Wksh11 active linear regression is used to predict future values. If you have important assumptions
Wksh13 Wksh14 that are important to the forecast, then these assumptions should over-ride the
Wksh15 Wksh16 linear calculations since we want our forecast to be as accurate as possible.
Key Point => If your historical information has gradual trends, then linear regression
is an appropriate model for forecasting. However, if your historical information has
distinct steps up or down, then you should consider using a smoothing model .

Before we adopt a regression model, it's a good idea to generate a scatter graph of the actual data
and observe if there is a clear trend for fitting a straight regression line into the data:

35000
30000
Total Revenues

25000
20000
15000
Row 10
10000
5000
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Periods

The calculation of linear values is determined by defining the slope of the line and the y intercept:
Order Total Rev Linear Slope Intercept
Formula for Linear Trendline: Year variable x actual y Value y m factor b factor
2019 1 12,905 11,576 4216.40 7359.40
y=(m*x)+b 2020 2 14,944 15,792
2021 3 18,345 20,009
m: slope of line 2022 4 24,780 24,225
x: independent variable 2023 5 29,069 28,441
 b: y intercept 2001 6 32,658
2002 7 36,874
2003 8 41,091
2004 9 45,307
2005 10 49,523

The degree of linear fit with the actual data can be expressed as R Square 0.9676

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

Period Period Period Period Period
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Pro Forma Income Statement

12-1 Gross Revenues (64,319) (60,103) (55,887) (51,670) (47,454)

12-2 Cost of Goods Sold (58,711) (54,896) (51,080) (47,264) (43,448)

12-3 Operating Expenses (7,190) (6,706) (6,221) (5,737) (5,252)

12-4 Operating Income (130,221) (121,704) (113,187) (104,671) (96,154)

12-5 Non Operating Expenses (4,519) (4,230) (3,940) (3,650) (3,361)

4-25 Extra Ordinary Items 0 0 0 0 0

Net Income (134,740) (125,934) (117,127) (108,321) (99,515)

Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement

Sources of Operating Cash Flow:

Net Income (134,740) (125,934) (117,127) (108,321) (99,515)
Depreciation and Amortization 470 490 500 520 550
(Increase) Decrease Defer Taxes 0 0 0 0 0
(Gain) Loss on Sale of Assets 15 9 2 3 6
(Increase) Decrease Current Assets 41,117 (1,138) (1,138) (1,138) (1,138)
Increase (Decrease) Current Liab (67,457) 1,476 1,476 1,476 1,476
Operating Cash Flow (160,595) (125,097) (116,288) (107,461) (98,621)

Investment Sources of Cash Flow:

Planned Sale of Assets 100 60 20 25 35
Planned Sale of Investments 2,200 2,100 1,900 1,800 1,700
Other Investment Sources to be used 0 0 0 0 0
Total Investment Sources of Cash 2,300 2,160 1,920 1,825 1,735

Planned Investments:
Capital Expenditures (3,500) (3,000) (3,100) (2,700) (2,600)
Acquisitions (500) (750) (1,200) (650) (350)
Purchases of Investments (3,000) (3,500) (4,500) (6,000) (7,000)
Total Investment Applications of Cash (7,000) (7,250) (8,800) (9,350) (9,950)

Cash Flow from Financing Activities:

Proceeds from Loans & Debt 1,300 1,000 950 750 650
Proceeds from Minority Interest 20 60 80 90 100
Other Financing Activities 0 0 0 0 0
Total Financing Sources of Cash 1,320 1,060 1,030 840 750

Cash Flow Applied for Financing:

Payments on Loans & Debt (1,500) (1,000) (600) (500) (500)
Dividends Paid to Shareholders (2,500) (3,000) (4,000) (5,500) (7,000)
Purchase / Retire Stock (2,000) (2,000) (1,500) (1,000) (500)
Other Financing Activities 0 0 0 0 0
Total Financing Applications of Cash (6,000) (6,000) (6,100) (7,000) (8,000)

Total Change to Cash (169,975) (135,127) (128,238) (121,146) (114,086)

Beginning Cash Balance 4,630 (165,345) (300,472) (428,710) (549,856)

Forecasted Ending Balance (165,345) (300,472) (428,710) (549,856) (663,942)

Pro Forma Balance Sheet

Cash and Cash Equivalents (165,345) (300,472) (428,710) (549,856) (663,942)

Short Term Marketable Securities 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts Receivable (6,432) (6,010) (5,589) (5,167) (4,745)
Inventory (5,146) (4,808) (4,471) (4,134) (3,796)
Other Current Assets (4,181) (3,907) (3,633) (3,359) (3,084)
Total Current Assets (181,103) (315,197) (442,403) (562,515) (675,568)

Fixed Assets 14,210 17,210 20,310 23,010 25,610

Accumulated Depreciation (6,999) (7,489) (7,989) (8,509) (9,059)
Net Fixed Assets 7,211 9,721 12,321 14,501 16,551
Longterm Investments 3,797 5,197 7,797 11,997 17,297
Investments in Other Companies 500 1,250 2,450 3,100 3,450
Intangibles and Other Assets 200 240 320 400 650
Total Non Current Assets 11,708 16,408 22,888 29,998 37,948

Total Assets (169,395) (298,789) (419,515) (532,517) (637,620)

Accounts Payable (10,934) (10,218) (9,501) (8,784) (8,067)

Short Term Borrowings (7,718) (7,212) (6,706) (6,200) (5,694)
Short Term Portion of LT Debt 30 30 25 20 15
Other Current Liabilities (3,859) (3,606) (3,353) (3,100) (2,847)
Total Current Liabilities (22,482) (21,006) (19,535) (18,065) (16,594)

Longterm Debt / Borrowings 3,335 3,335 3,685 3,935 4,085

Other Longterm Liabilities 700 750 800 800 800
Total Non Current Liabilities 4,035 4,085 4,485 4,735 4,885

Total Liabilities (18,447) (16,921) (15,050) (13,330) (11,709)

Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0
Common Equity 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200
Additional Paid in Capital 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700
Retained Earnings (135,806) (264,740) (385,867) (499,688) (606,203)
Adj for Foreign Currency Transl (5,000) (4,000) (2,500) (1,500) (500)
Treasury Stock (2,000) (4,000) (5,500) (6,500) (7,000)
Total Equity (134,906) (264,840) (385,967) (499,788) (605,803)

External Financing Required (EFR) (16,042) (17,028) (18,497) (19,399) (20,109)

Home Wksh2 ProForma Financials (Exponential Smoothing / Weighted Moving Average)
Wksh3 Wksh4 Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8 A set of pro forma (forecasted) financial statements are generated using the results of
Wksh9 Wksh10 the historical analysis in the previous worksheets. A statistical method known as
Wksh11 Wksh12 exponential smoothing is used to plot a trend over historical data. Additionally, we
active Wksh14 can use a weighted moving average to forecast future periods.
Wksh15 Wksh16 Key Point => If you have a general upward historical trend, weighted average will tend
to underestimate forecasted values and vice versa (downward trend = overestimate).

Exponential Smoothing and Weighted Moving Averages for Total Revenues:

Years => 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Total Revenues - Historical 12,905 14,944 18,345 24,780 29,069
Total Revenues - Exponential 12,905 12,905 14,944 18,345 24,780
Total Revenues - Wt Moving Avg 11,105 15,230 18,890 21,605 21,939 26,895

Smoothing Factor must be between 0 and 1 0 1 Total weights should add up to => 100.00%
Set Smoothing Factor 1.00
Assign weights to appropriate periods 0.00% 1.50% 4.50% 34.50% 59.50% 100.00%

Find the Optimal Smoothing Factor:

Total Exponent
Revenues Amounts Difference Square
12,905 12,905 0 0
14,944 12,905 2,039 4,157,521
18,345 14,944 3,401 11,566,801
24,780 18,345 6,435 41,409,225
29,069 24,780 4,289 18,395,521
Mean Squared Error 15,105,814

Find the Optimal Moving Weights:

Total Weighted
Revenues Amounts Difference Square
12,905 11,105 1,800 3,240,000
14,944 15,230 (286) 81,796
18,345 18,890 (545) 297,025
24,780 21,605 3,175 10,080,625
 29,069 21,939 7,130 50,834,333
Mean Squared Error 12,906,756

Exponential Comparison
35000

30000
Total Revenues
25000

20000 Total Revenues - Historical

Total Revenues - Exponential
15000
26,895
10000

5000

0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Periods

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

Period Period Period Period Period
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Pro Forma Income Statement

Gross Revenues 26,895 27,422 27,274 27,335 27,311

Cost of Goods Sold 23,600 24,004 24,101 24,304 24,294

Operating Expenses 3,359 3,394 3,324 3,329 3,308

Operating Income 53,854 54,819 54,700 54,967 54,913

NonOperating Expenses (3,200) (3,200) (3,600) (3,600) (4,000)

ExtraOrdinary Items 650 650 650 700 700

Net Income 51,304 52,269 51,750 52,067 51,613

Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement

Sources of Operating Cash Flow:

Net Income 51,304 52,269 51,750 52,067 51,613
Depreciation and Amortization 470 490 500 520 550
(Increase) Decrease Defer Taxes 0 0 0 0 0
(Gain) Loss on Sale of Assets 15 9 2 3 6
(Increase) Decrease Current Assets 16,489 (142) 40 (16) 6
Increase (Decrease) Current Liab (35,532) 184 (52) 21 (8)

Operating Cash Flow 32,746 52,810 52,240 52,595 52,167

Investment Sources of Cash Flow:

Planned Sale of Assets 100 60 20 25 35
Planned Sale of Investments 2,200 2,100 1,900 1,800 1,700
Other Investment Sources to be used 0 0 0 0 0
Total Investment Sources of Cash 2,300 2,160 1,920 1,825 1,735

Planned Investments:
Capital Expenditures (3,500) (3,000) (3,100) (3,900) (4,600)
Acquisitions (500) (750) (500) 0 0
Purchases of Investments (2,000) (3,000) (3,000) (1,000) (1,000)
Total Investment Applications of Cash (6,000) (6,750) (6,600) (4,900) (5,600)

Cash Flow from Financing Activities:

Proceeds from Loans & Debt 1,300 2,000 3,000 4,500 7,000
Proceeds from Minority Interest 20 60 80 90 100
Other Financing Activities 0 0 0 0 0
Total Financing Sources of Cash 1,320 2,060 3,080 4,590 7,100

Cash Flow Applied for Financing:

Payments on Loans & Debt (1,500) (1,800) (2,500) (4,000) (6,000)
Dividends Paid to Shareholders (2,500) (3,000) (4,000) (4,000) (3,000)
Purchase / Retire Stock 0 0 0 0 0
Other Financing Activities 0 0 0 0 0
Total Financing Applications of Cash (4,000) (4,800) (6,500) (8,000) (9,000)

Total Change to Cash 26,366 45,480 44,140 46,110 46,402

Beginning Cash Balance 4,630 30,996 76,476 120,616 166,727

Forecasted Ending Balance 30,996 76,476 120,616 166,727 213,129

Pro Forma Balance Sheet

Cash and Cash Equivalents 30,996 76,476 120,616 166,727 213,129

Short Term Marketable Securities 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts Receivable 2,689 2,742 2,727 2,733 2,731
Inventory 2,152 2,194 2,182 2,187 2,185
Other Current Assets 1,748 1,782 1,773 1,777 1,775
Total Current Assets 37,586 83,194 127,299 173,424 219,820

Fixed Assets 14,210 17,210 20,310 24,210 28,810

Accumulated Depreciation (6,999) (7,489) (7,989) (8,509) (9,059)
Net Fixed Assets 7,211 9,721 12,321 15,701 19,751
Longterm Investments 2,797 3,697 4,797 3,997 3,297
Investments in Other Companies 500 1,250 1,750 1,750 1,750
Intangibles and Other Assets 75 100 150 150 100
Total Non Current Assets 10,583 14,768 19,018 21,598 24,898

Total Assets 48,169 97,962 146,317 195,022 244,718

Accounts Payable 4,572 4,662 4,637 4,647 4,643

Short Term Borrowings 3,227 3,291 3,273 3,280 3,277
Short Term Portion of LT Debt 30 30 25 20 15
Other Current Liabilities 1,614 1,645 1,636 1,640 1,639
Total Current Liabilities 9,443 9,628 9,571 9,587 9,574

Longterm Debt / Borrowings 3,335 3,535 4,035 4,535 5,535

Other Longterm Liabilities 700 750 800 800 800
Total Non Current Liabilities 4,035 4,285 4,835 5,335 6,335
Total Liabilities 13,478 13,913 14,406 14,922 15,909

Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0
Common Equity 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200
Additional Paid in Capital 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700
Retained Earnings (1,066) (4,066) (8,066) (12,066) (15,066)
Adj for Foreign Currency Transl (5,000) (3,500) (1,000) 0 0
We simply carried
Treasury Stock forward the balance 0
0 0 0 0
Total Equity 1,834
from the historical 334 (1,166) (4,166) (7,166)
Balance Sheet.

External Financing Required (EFR) 32,856 83,716 133,077 184,265 235,975

2002 2003 2004 2005

27,422 27,274 27,335 27,311

Home Wksh2 Scenario Analysis for
Wksh3 Wksh4 Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8 We can copy our forecast into a new worksheet and do scenario analysis and goal-seek analysis.
Wksh9 Wksh10 Although Microsoft Excel includes Scenario Manager, it can be easier and quicker to simply do our
Wksh11 Wksh12 scenario analysis manually. We can use Goal Seek to find a value for a cell given a corresponding
Wksh13 active formula in another cell.
Wksh15 Wksh16
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Pro Forma Income Statement (Simple Projection Method)

Scenario => Non Operating Expenses will decline by $ 100,000 in year 2003 and again in year 2005:

Gross Revenues 32,557 36,464 40,840 45,741 51,230

Cost of Goods Sold 28,569 31,997 35,836 40,137 44,953
Operating Expenses 4,066 4,554 5,101 5,713 6,399
NonOperating Expenses (3,200) (3,200) (3,100) (3,100) (3,000)
ExtraOrdinary Items 650 650 650 700 700
Net Income 62,642 70,465 79,327 89,190 100,281

Instead of copying our forecast into this worksheet, we can simply do scenario analysis directly in
the forecast itself.

Pro Forma Income Statement (Linear Trend Method)

Goal Seek => What total revenues are required if Net Income must be $ 13.5 million in Year 2004?

Gross Revenues 32,064 35,940 39,816 44,301 47,569

Cost of Goods Sold (11,607) (12,847) (14,087) (15,327) (16,567)
Operating Expenses (7,750) (8,693) (9,636) (10,579) (11,522)
Non Operating Expenses (3,549) (4,088) (4,627) (5,166) (5,705)
Extra Ordinary Items 271 271 271 271 271
Net Income (formula cells) 9,430 10,584 11,738 13,500 14,046

Do not change formula cells (goals) to values

when using Goal Seek (Tools > Goal Seek)

This is the target cell that Goal Seek is seeking

to change per the value 13,500 in cell G34
Home Wksh2 Budget Analysis for
Wksh3 Wksh4 Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8 Once we complete our forecast, we can summarize and review it before finalizing it
Wksh9 Wksh10 into the form of budgets. We also need to summarize our assumptions that should
Wksh11 Wksh12 go into our final budget. We can start our budget process by reviewing the different
Wksh13 Wksh14 revenue forecast:
active Wksh16

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

Period Period Period Period Period
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Summarize Revenue Forecast:

Simple Projection Model 32,557 36,464 40,840 45,741 51,230
Linear Trend Model (64,319) (60,103) (55,887) (51,670) (47,454)
Wt Moving Avg Model 26,895 27,422 27,274 27,335 27,311
Declining Growth Model 31,395 33,278 34,609 35,128 31,000
Historical Data 12,905 14,944 18,345 24,780 29,069

Projection using declining growth rates:

Gross Revenues 31,395 33,278 34,609 35,128 31,000

Forecast Comparisons
60000

40000
Total Revenues

20000
Simple Projection Model
0 Linear Trend Model
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Wt Moving Avg Model
-20000 Declining Growth Model
Historical Data
-40000

-60000

-80000
 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Wt Moving Avg Model

Total Re
-20000 Declining Growth Model
Historical Data
-40000

-60000

-80000

Periods

In addition to using linear models for forecasting, we can apply several non-linear (curve) models:
Logarithmic - Used when rate of change in data suddenly shifts upward or downward.
Power - Used when rate of change in data occurs at a specific rate.
Exponential - Used when rate of change is increasing or decreasing at ever higher rates.
Polynomial - Used when rate of change fluctuates with no pattern.

Logarithmic Trend
Actual Predicted Slope Intercept
Formula for Logarithmic Trendline x factor Values Value y c factor b factor
1 12,905 (10,609) 9816.5643 10609.256
y = ( c * LN (x)) - b 2 14,944 (3,805)
3 18,345 175
LN: Natural Logarithm 4 24,780 2,999
5 29,069 5,190
6 6,980
7 8,493
8 9,804
9 10,960
10 11,994

Power Trendline
Actual Predicted Slope Intercept
y = b * x^c x factor Values Value y c factor b factor
1 12,905 11,754 0.5076018 9.3719256
2 14,944 16,710 11753.726
3 18,345 20,529
4 24,780 23,756
5 29,069 26,606
6 29,185
7 31,561
 8 33,774
9 35,855
10 37,825

Exponential Trendline < - calculate using c and b factor - >

Actual Predicted Slope Intercept
x factor Values Value y c factor b factor ( c * x) EXP
y = b * EXP ( c * x ) 1 12,905 12,481 0.2129842 9.2190009 0.21298 1.2373651
2 14,944 15,444 10086.981 0.42597 1.5310724
3 18,345 19,110 0.63895 1.8944955
4 24,780 23,646 0.85194 2.3441826
5 29,069 29,258 1.06492 2.9006098
6 36,203 1.27791 3.5891133
7 44,797 1.49089 4.4410435
8 55,430 1.70387 5.4951922
9 68,587 1.91686 6.799559
10 84,867 2.12984 8.413537

Polynomial Trendline
Actual Predicted
y = (c2 * x^2) + (c1 * x^1) + b x factor Values Value y c2 c1 b
1 12,905 12,652 538.14286 987.54286 11126.4
2 14,944 15,254
3 18,345 18,932
4 24,780 23,687
5 29,069 29,518
6 36,425
7 44,408
8 53,468
9 63,604
10 74,816

Summarize Non Linear Curves on Graph:

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Logarithmic Trendline (10,609) (3,805) 175 2,999 5,190 6,980 8,493
Power Trendline 11,754 16,710 20,529 23,756 26,606 29,185 31,561
Exponential Trendline 12,481 15,444 19,110 23,646 29,258 36,203 44,797
Polynomial Trendline 12,652 15,254 18,932 23,687 29,518 36,425 44,408
Actual Revenues 12,905 14,944 18,345 24,780 29,069

Non Linear Trends

100000

80000
Total Revenues

60000

Logarithmic Trendline
40000 Power Trendline
Exponential Trendline

20000

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

-20000

Periods

Variance Analysis of Past Budgets:

Accuracy in the budget process should be examined to determine the degree of error or
variance in the budget process. If the variance is high, this indicates a need to improve
planning techniques within the company. TBD: To be Determined
(Wksht 16)
 2019 2020 2021 2022 2000 2001
Income Statement Items
Total Revenues - Budgeted 10,500 14,500 22,500 28,500 30,000 30,500
Total Revenues - Actual 12,905 14,944 18,345 24,780 29,069 TBD
% difference from actual -19% -3% 23% 15% 3% #VALUE!

Cost of Goods Sold - Budgeted (4,500) (6,500) (8,648) (9,650) (11,000) 26,763
Cost of Goods Sold - Actual 11,434 12,709 16,011 22,022 25,857 TBD
% difference from actual -139% -151% -154% -144% -143% #VALUE!

Operating Income - Budgeted 3,100 4,900 9,000 11,000 10,500 61,073

Operating Income - Actual 26,010 29,586 36,596 49,836 58,447 TBD
% difference from actual -88% -83% -75% -78% -82% #VALUE!

Net Income - Budgeted 2,100 4,100 6,500 9,000 9,300 57,913

Net Income - Actual 26,882 30,530 37,550 51,457 60,429 TBD
% difference from actual -92% -87% -83% -83% -85% #VALUE!

Balance Sheet Items

Current Assets - Budgeted 3,450 4,400 6,250 7,500 7,900 42,921
Current Assets - Actual 10,030 12,577 18,027 20,046 23,751 TBD
% difference from actual -66% -65% -65% -63% -67% #VALUE!

NonCurrent Assets - Budgeted 10,900 14,000 22,000 27,500 29,500 12,738

NonCurrent Assets - Actual 6,889 6,776 8,478 8,507 8,611 TBD
% difference from actual 58% 107% 159% 223% 243% #VALUE!

Current Liabilities - Budgeted 3,750 5,600 8,200 9,050 9,400 10,715

Current Liabilities - Actual 19,514 21,660 35,967 40,380 44,945 TBD
% difference from actual -81% -74% -77% -78% -79% #VALUE!

NonCurrent Liabilities - Budgeted 1,750 2,450 3,750 4,900 5,100 4,835

NonCurrent Liabilities - Actual 1,512 3,667 2,805 2,268 3,574 TBD
% difference from actual 16% -33% 34% 116% 43% #VALUE!

Ratio Items
Current Ratio - Budgeted 0.92 0.79 0.76 0.83 0.80 4.01
Current Ratio - Actual 0.51 0.58 0.50 0.50 0.53 TBD
% difference from actual 79% 35% 52% 67% 51% #VALUE!
Total Asset Turnover - Budgeted 0.68 0.72 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.55
Total Asset Turnover - Actual 0.76 0.77 0.69 0.87 0.90 TBD
% difference from actual -11% -7% 16% -8% -12% #VALUE!

Gross Profit Margin - Budgeted 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 1.88
Gross Profit Margin - Actual 189% 185% 187% 189% 189% TBD
% difference from actual -68% -68% -68% -68% -68% #VALUE!

Net Profit Margin - Budgeted 19% 25% 28% 30% 28% 190%
Net Profit Margin - Actual 208% 204% 205% 208% 208% TBD
% difference from actual -91% -88% -86% -86% -87% #VALUE!

Debt to Common Equity - Budgeted 0.45 0.50 0.60 0.65 0.55 0.24
Debt to Common Equity - Actual 1.63 1.85 2.67 2.88 3.35 TBD
% difference from actual -72% -73% -78% -77% -84% #VALUE!

Return on Equity - Budgeted 20% 29% 32% 35% 30% 89%

Return on Equity - Actual 209% 222% 259% 347% 417% TBD
% difference from actual -90% -87% -88% -90% -93% #VALUE!

We can use specific measurements to track and control forecasting errors:

Mean Absolute Error - An absolute value of forecast errors, does not place weight on the
amount of the error. Calculated as the sum of (actual values - predicted values) / n.

Mean Square Error - Similar to Mean Absolute Error, but does place more emphasis on
the amount of error; i.e. an error of 8 is twice as significant as 4. Calculated as the
sum of (actual values - predicted values)^2 / n.

Root Mean Square Error - To make the Mean Square Error useful and comparable to the Mean
Absolute Error, we can take the square root of the Mean Square Error. We can then use this
as a guide to establish an error limit or standard for flagging unacceptable errors. Is Error
Actual Forecasted Error Outside
Example: Total Revenues Period Revenues Revenues Error Absolute Squared Limit?
n: total number of periods 1996 12,905 10,500 2,405 2,405 5,784,025 No
1997 14,944 14,500 444 444 197,136 No
1998 18,345 22,500 (4,155) 4,155 17,264,025 Yes
 1999 24,780 28,500 (3,720) 3,720 13,838,400 Yes
2000 29,069 30,000 (931) 931 866,761 No
n => 5 Sum => (5,957) 5,957 35,485,849 Yes

Mean Absolute Error 1,191

Mean Square Error 7,097,170
Root Mean Sqr Error 2,664
Establish Error Limits 2,664
using c and b factor - >
Predicted
Value y
12,481
15,444
19,110
23,646
29,258
36,203
44,797
55,430
68,587
84,867

2003 2004 2005

9,804 10,960 11,994
33,774 35,855 37,825
55,430 68,587 84,867
53,468 63,604 74,816
Home Wksh2 Final Budgets for
Wksh3 Wksh4 Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8 Now that we have analyzed our historical data and placed it into a set of
Wksh9 Wksh10 forecast, we can pull it all together with our assumptions for a final budget.
Wksh11 Wksh12 Many of these assumptions should be included in our forecast for improved
Wksh13 Wksh14 accuracy. However, we need to fine tune and finalize all assumptions
Wksh15 active so that we can produce a final finished budget for planning purposes.

Budget
Period
Ref 2001 Assumptions & Comments

Operating Plan

16-1 Total Revenues 30,500 Based on review of Pro Forma Financials, Marketing, etc.
16-2 Cost of Goods Sold 26,763 Volume projections, production budgets, and vertical analysis
16-3 Operating Expenses 3,809 Average % of Sales per Vertical Analysis
16-4 Operating Income 61,073

16-5 Interest Expenses (310) Based on anticipated levels of debt and past history
16-6 Income Taxes (3,300) Based on anticipated taxable income and effective rate
16-7 Other Non Operating Expenses (200) Provision for contingency was added on this line item

16-8 Earnings Before Extra Ord Items 57,263

16-9 Extra Ordinary Items 650 Per our Simple Model Forecast

16-10 Net Income 57,913

Financial Plan

Budgeted Cash Flows

16-11 Net Income 57,913

16-12 Depreciation and Amortization 470 Review of Simple Model Forecast and Capital Expenditure Budget
16-13 (Increase) Decrease Defer Taxes 0
16-14 (Gain) Loss on Sale of Assets 15 Per Simple Forecast Model
16-15 (Increase) Decrease Current Assets 15,516 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-16 (Increase) Decrease Current Liab (34,270) Same formula as used in forecast models
16-17 Operating Cash Flow 39,644

Investment Sources of Cash:

16-18 Planned Sale of Assets 100 Per Simple Model Forecast
16-19 Planned Sale of Investments 2,200 Per Simple Model Forecast
16-20 Other Investment Sources to be used 0
16-21 Total Investment Sources of Cash 2,300

Planned Investments:
16-22 Capital Expenditures (4,500) Budgeted $ 4.5 million in Capital Expenditure Budget
16-23 Acquisitions in Other Co's (350) Per forecast, strategic plan, and other budgets
16-24 Purchases of Investments (2,500) Per forecast, strategic plan, and other budgets
16-25 Total Investment Applications of Cash (7,350)

Cash Flow from Financing Activities

16-26 Proceeds from Loans & Debt 1,450 Per Financing Requirements and other budgets
16-27 Proceeds from Minority Interest 15 Per historical financials and investment budget
16-28 Other Financing Activities 0
16-29 Total Financing Sources of Cash 1,465

Cash Flow Applied for Financing:

16-30 Payments on Loans and Debt (1,250) Per forecast and other budgets
16-31 Dividends Paid to Shareholders (2,500) Per Simple Model Forecast
16-32 Purchase / Retire Stock (1,500) Per strategic plan and other budgets
16-33 Other Financing Activities 0
16-34 Total Financing Applications of Cash (5,250)

16-35 Total Change to Cash 30,809

16-36 Beginning Cash Balance 4,630

16-37 Forecasted Ending Balance 35,439

Budgeted Balance Sheet

16-38 Cash and Cash Equivalents 35,439 Per above

16-39 Short Term Marketable Securities 10 Per historical financials
16-40 Accounts Receivable 3,050 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-41 Inventory 2,440 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-42 Other Current Assets 1,983 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-43 Total Current Assets 42,921

16-44 Fixed Assets 15,210 Same formula as used in forecast models

16-45 Accumulated Depreciation (6,999) Same formula as used in forecast models
16-46 Net Fixed Assets 8,211
16-47 Longterm Investments 3,297 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-48 Investments in Other Companies 1,000 Per review of forecast and strategic plans
16-49 Intangibles and Other Assets 230 Per review of forecast and historical balances
16-50 Total Non Current Assets 12,738

16-51 Total Assets 55,659

16-52 Accounts Payable 5,185 Same formula as used in forecast models

16-53 Short Term Borrowings 3,660 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-54 Short Term Portion of LT Debt 40 Per review of forecast and historical information
16-55 Other Current Liabilities 1,830 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-56 Total Current Liabilities 10,715

16-57 Longterm Debt / Borrowings 3,735 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-58 Other Longterm Liabilities 1,100 Per review of historical information and expected growth rates.
16-59 Total Non Current Liabilities 4,835

16-60 Total Liabilities 15,550

16-61 Preferred Stock 0

16-62 Common Equity 2,200 Per Simple Model Forecast
16-63 Additional Paid in Capital 5,700 Per Simple Model Forecast
16-64 Retained Earnings 56,847 Same formula as used in forecast models
16-65 Adj for Foreign Currency Translation (5,000) Per Simple Model Forecast
16-66 Treasury Stock (1,500) Same formula as used in forecast models
16-67 Total Equity 58,247

16-68 Total Liabilities and Equity 73,797

16-69 External Financing Required (18,138)

ture Budget
Microsoft Excel 9.0 Answer Report
Worksheet: [Detail_Analysis.xls]13 - Pro Forma (Exp)
Report Created: 3/16/2002 3:42:28 PM

Target Cell (Min)

Cell Name Original Value Final Value
$G$60 Mean Squared Error Square 20,525,549 12,297,836

Adjustable Cells
Cell Name Original Value Final Value
$D$24 Set Smoothing Factor 0.70 1.00

Constraints
Cell Name Cell Value Formula Status Slack
$D$23 Smoothing Factor must be between 0 and 1 0 $D$23>=$D$23 Binding 0
$D$24 Set Smoothing Factor 1.00 $D$24<=$E$23 Binding 0
Microsoft Excel 9.0 Answer Report
Worksheet: [Detail_Analysis.xls]13 - Pro Forma (Exp)
Report Created: 3/16/2002 5:19:05 PM

Target Cell (Min)

Cell Name Original Value Final Value
$G$46 Mean Squared Error Square 65,536,151 59,853,342

Adjustable Cells
Cell Name Original Value Final Value
$D$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 0.00% 0.00%
$E$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 2.00% 1.50%
$F$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods Total weights should add up to => 5.00% 4.50%
$G$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 35.00% 34.50%
$H$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 60.00% 59.50%

Constraints
Cell Name Cell Value Formula Status Slack
$I$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 100.00% $I$25=$E$23 Binding 0
$D$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 0.00% $D$25<=$E$23 Not Binding 1
$E$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 1.50% $E$25<=$E$23 Not Binding 0.985
$F$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods Total weights should add up to => 4.50% $F$25<=$E$23 Not Binding 0.955
$G$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 34.50% $G$25<=$E$23 Not Binding 0.655
$H$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 59.50% $H$25<=$E$23 Not Binding 0.405
$D$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 0.00% $D$25>=$D$23 Binding 0.00%
$E$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 1.50% $E$25>=$D$23 Not Binding 1.50%
$F$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods Total weights should add up to => 4.50% $F$25>=$D$23 Not Binding 4.50%
$G$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 34.50% $G$25>=$D$23 Not Binding 34.50%
$H$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 59.50% $H$25>=$D$23 Not Binding 59.50%