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AI Scaling and limitation

The document discusses AI scaling laws that relate model size, dataset size, and compute resources to performance, highlighting the diminishing returns of scaling. It introduces Chinchilla scaling laws, which advocate for a balanced allocation of compute between model size and training data. Additionally, it explores empirical findings across different architectures and the emergence of new capabilities as models exceed certain thresholds.

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50 views

AI Scaling and limitation

The document discusses AI scaling laws that relate model size, dataset size, and compute resources to performance, highlighting the diminishing returns of scaling. It introduces Chinchilla scaling laws, which advocate for a balanced allocation of compute between model size and training data. Additionally, it explores empirical findings across different architectures and the emergence of new capabilities as models exceed certain thresholds.

Uploaded by

yusuff.0279
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as TXT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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#import "@preview/cetz:0.1.

2"
#import "@preview/plotst:0.1.0"
#import "@preview/diagraph:0.1.0"
#import "@preview/tablex:0.0.5": tablex, cellx, rowspanx

#set page(
numbering: "1",
number-align: center,
header: align(right)[AI Scaling Laws and Model Efficiency],
)

#set heading(numbering: "1.")


#set text(font: "New Computer Modern")
#set math.equation(numbering: "(1)")

= AI Scaling Laws and Model Efficiency: Beyond Brute Force Computation

== Introduction

The remarkable progress in artificial intelligence over the past decade has been
largely driven by an unprecedented increase in computational scale. Modern large
language models (LLMs) and multimodal systems with trillions of parameters trained
on vast datasets have demonstrated capabilities that were once thought to be the
exclusive domain of human intelligence. Behind this explosion in capability lies a
fascinating empirical phenomenon: scaling laws that govern the relationship between
model size, dataset size, compute resources, and ultimate performance. This essay
explores these scaling relationships, their theoretical foundations, empirical
validation, and the technical frontiers in improving model efficiency beyond simply
scaling up computation.

== Theoretical Foundations of Scaling Laws

=== Power Law Scaling

The foundational work on neural network scaling laws revealed that model
performance follows a power law relationship with respect to key factors:

$
L(N, D, C) \approx (N^{-\alpha_N} + D^{-\alpha_D} + C^{-\alpha_C})
$

Where:
- $L$ is the loss (lower is better)
- $N$ is the number of parameters
- $D$ is the dataset size
- $C$ is the compute budget
- $\alpha_N$, $\alpha_D$, and $\alpha_C$ are scaling exponents

These exponents typically range from 0.05 to 0.5, depending on the specific
architecture and task domain. The power law relationship suggests that performance
improvements from scaling follow a pattern of diminishing returns, yet remain
predictable.

=== Chinchilla Scaling

The Chinchilla scaling laws, proposed by Hoffmann et al. (2022), revised earlier
work by suggesting that models had been significantly undertrained. They proposed
an optimal allocation between model size and training tokens:
$
N_{optimal} \propto C^{0.5}
$
$
D_{optimal} \propto C^{0.5}
$

This implies that compute should be split roughly equally between increasing model
size and increasing training data—a departure from previous practice that favored
larger models over more extensive training.

#figure(
cetz.canvas({
import cetz.draw: *

let w = 10
let h = 7

// Set up coordinate system with labeled axes


line((0, 0), (w, 0), mark: (end: ">"))
line((0, 0), (0, h), mark: (end: ">"))
content("Model Size (Parameters)", (w/2, -0.5))
content("Performance", (-1.2, h/2), angle: 90deg)

// Draw the power law curve


set-style(stroke: blue, stroke-width: 2pt)
let f(x) = 2 * x^0.25 // Power law function
let points = for x in range(0, 100) {
let x_scaled = x / 10
(x_scaled, f(x_scaled))
}
draw.curve(..points)

// Add some labeled points


set-style(fill: red)
circle((1, f(1)), 0.1)
content("1B", (1, f(1) + 0.3))

circle((3, f(3)), 0.1)


content("10B", (3, f(3) + 0.3))

circle((6, f(6)), 0.1)


content("100B", (6, f(6) + 0.3))

circle((9, f(9)), 0.1)


content("1T", (9, f(9) + 0.3))

// Add diminishing returns annotation


set-style(stroke: black, stroke-width: 1pt, mark: (end: ">"))
line((3, f(3)), (6, f(6)))
content("3× parameters", (4.5, f(3) - 0.3))
content("only ~1.5× improvement", (5.5, f(3) + 0.7))
}),
caption: [Visualization of power law scaling relationship between model size and
performance]
)

== Empirical Validation and Recent Findings


=== Cross-Architecture Scaling

Recent research has extended scaling laws across different architectural families:

#let scaling_data = (
("Transformer (Dense)", "0.076", "0.095", "0.220"),
("Transformer (Sparse MoE)", "0.099", "0.091", "0.249"),
("CNN", "0.068", "0.087", "0.198"),
("State Space Models", "0.084", "0.093", "0.231"),
("Recurrent Neural Networks", "0.059", "0.083", "0.180")
)

#figure(
block(width: 100%)[
#tablex(
columns: (1fr, 1fr, 1fr, 1fr),
align: (x, y) => (left, center).at(x),
cellx(fill: gray.lighten(80%))[*Architecture Family*],
cellx(fill: gray.lighten(80%))[*Parameter Scaling ($alpha_N$)*],
cellx(fill: gray.lighten(80%))[*Data Scaling ($alpha_D$)*],
cellx(fill: gray.lighten(80%))[*Compute Scaling ($alpha_C$)*],
..scaling_data.flatten()
)
],
caption: [Empirical scaling exponents across neural network architectures]
)

The consistency of scaling exponents across architectural families suggests that


these laws capture fundamental properties of neural network learning rather than
architecture-specific phenomena.

=== Emergent Capabilities

A particularly intriguing aspect of scaling laws is the appearance of emergent


capabilities—abilities that smaller models lack entirely but suddenly emerge once
models exceed a certain scale threshold.

Examples include:
- In-context learning
- Multi-step reasoning
- Zero-shot instruction following
- Tool use

These capabilities often appear as phase transitions rather than continuous


improvements, challenging the smooth power law assumption. Recent work by Schaeffer
et al. (2023) proposed a refined model:

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