XAUUSD Technical Analysis: An ICT

Perspective (March 19, 2025)

1. Executive Summary:
Analysis conducted on XAUUSD as of March 19, 2025, utilizing Inner Circle Trader (ICT)
methodologies, reveals a robust bullish trend prevailing across both daily and weekly
timeframes. This upward momentum has propelled the price of gold to unprecedented historical
highs. Examination of market structure indicates continued bullish strength, evidenced by recent
Break of Structure signals, although potential for a Change of Character on lower timeframes
necessitates careful monitoring. Key areas of interest for potential trading activity are identified
through the lens of order blocks, with zones around 3015-3024 in the London session and
3005-3027 and 3040-3055 in the New York session highlighted as significant. Liquidity pools,
representing areas where substantial orders may reside, are likely targets around recent swing
highs in the 3038-3045 range, with projections extending towards 3050-3055. Swing lows in the
2900-2956 region and the extremes of the Asian trading range for the current day (high:
3039-3045, low: 3023) also constitute important liquidity targets. The psychological level of 3000
remains a pivotal area. Critical ICT Macro Times for the trading day have been identified for
both London and New York sessions, providing potential high-probability trading windows. While
specific Fair Value Gaps from the immediate past are not precisely discernible from the
available data, potential areas around 2948-2986 and 3000-3034 could offer support upon price
retracement. An observation of Smart Money Technique (SMT) divergence, where XAUUSD is
advancing while the USDX exhibits strength or stabilization, suggests inherent strength in the
gold market. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, reflecting positions as of March
11, 2025, indicates that commercial hedgers maintain a net short position in gold futures, while
speculative traders are heavily net long, revealing a divergence in institutional outlook. Potential
pullback entry levels, derived from Fibonacci retracements based on recent price swings, are
located in the 2969-2990 and 2910-2943 zones. Profit targets, calculated using Fibonacci
extensions, are projected towards 3078-3091 and 3082-3111. Strategic placement of stop-loss
orders beyond key support levels is crucial for risk management. In conclusion, trading
strategies should primarily align with the prevailing higher timeframe bullish trend, while
adhering to strict risk management protocols, including limiting risk per trade and targeting a
favorable Risk:Reward ratio.
2. Foundational Layer: Market Structure & Liquidity:
●​ 2.1. Trend Structure (Daily & Weekly Charts):
○​ The daily chart for XAUUSD on March 19, 2025, unequivocally demonstrates a
strong bullish trend. Multiple sources confirm this observation, with prices having
decisively breached the $3000 psychological barrier and establishing new historical
peaks. Reports indicate the price hovering around $3038-$3040 , with some even
reaching $3045 . This sustained upward movement indicates significant buying
pressure and a clear directional bias favoring long positions. The repeated
confirmation of new all-time highs by independent analyses underscores the
strength and validity of this bullish momentum. While the overall trend remains
bullish , it is important to acknowledge that overbought conditions and divergence
have been noted on the daily chart . This suggests that despite the prevailing
upward force, the market might be susceptible to short-term pullbacks or periods of
 consolidation as it seeks equilibrium after an extended advance. Recognizing these
conditions allows traders to exercise caution and refine their entry strategies.
○​ The weekly chart further reinforces the long-term bullish perspective for XAUUSD.
Data from the past twelve months reveals a substantial 41% increase in the price of
gold , highlighting a sustained upward trajectory. A specific weekly analysis for the
period of March 17-21, 2025, explicitly states a bullish swing structure and internal
structure . This broader timeframe analysis confirms that the recent surge is not an
isolated event but rather part of a more enduring upward trend. The long-term
perspective provided by the weekly chart lends credence to the current bullish bias
observed on the daily timeframe. Similar to the daily chart, however, overbought
divergence signals have also been identified on the weekly timeframe . This
indicates that while the long-term trend remains bullish, the market may eventually
enter a more significant correction phase as these overextended conditions become
more pronounced. Traders with a longer-term outlook should be mindful of this
potential for trend exhaustion.
○​ Recent price action on both daily and weekly charts reveals ongoing bullish
momentum, supported by Break of Structure (BOS) signals. Analysis for the week
of March 17-21, 2025, indicates the printing of a "bullish iBOS" on the daily chart ,
which signifies a continuation of the established uptrend by breaking past a
previous high. Simultaneously, there is an anticipation of a "bearish CHoCH"
(Change of Character) , suggesting a potential shift in market structure could be
developing. However, it is noted that this bearish CHoCH has not yet confirmed the
initiation of a bearish pullback phase on the higher timeframes. Earlier analysis from
March 14, 2025, also mentioned a bullish iBOS on the H4 chart with an anticipated
bearish CHOCH , while another source from the same date indicated uncertainty in
both BOS and CHOCH signals . These observations highlight that while the
dominant trend remains bullish, there have been signals of potential shifts on lower
timeframes, underscoring the dynamic nature of market structure and the need for
traders to remain vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly.
●​ 2.2. Key Order Blocks (Past 5 Trading Days):
○​ Identifying precise London session reversal order blocks from the provided
snippets, which lack specific time-based data for the last five trading days, presents
a challenge. However, certain levels emerge as potential zones of interest. Analysis
from March 19, 2025, points to a "15m pivot support zone" around 3024.12 during
the London session . This area could represent a demand order block where
significant buying interest might be concentrated, potentially leading to price
reversals. Conversely, other analysis from the same day suggests potential shorting
opportunities around 3032 and 3038 . These levels could act as supply order
blocks, indicating areas where sellers might be active. The mention of a price dip to
3022 in the European session could also signify the low of a demand order block
that initiated a subsequent upward move. Furthermore, a "Support area" is noted
around 3015, relevant to the afternoon start position , which might also function as
a demand order block towards the end of the London session or during the overlap
with the New York session. Given the prevailing bullish momentum, these potential
demand order blocks in the 3015-3024 range are particularly noteworthy for traders
seeking long entry opportunities.
○​ The New York trading session appears to have significant levels that could
represent order blocks. Various support and resistance levels, including pivot
 points, are identified in the snippets . Key resistance levels around 3047.74 and
3061.30, and support levels around 3010.41 and 2986.64, could act as reversal
zones or areas where order blocks are located. Notably, multiple analyses highlight
potential shorting opportunities in the 3040-3050 range , suggesting a significant
supply order block in this vicinity where institutional selling pressure might be
present. Support is also indicated around 3027-3006 and 3005-3008 , potentially
representing demand order blocks where buyers could step in. The convergence of
resistance levels identified by various technical analysis perspectives in the
3040-3055 range strongly suggests this as a key area of supply. Conversely, the
identified support zones in the 3005-3027 range indicate potential demand zones.
●​ 2.3. Liquidity Pools (Likely Targets):
○​ Recent swing highs are consistently reported within the $3038-$3045 range . Some
analyses even project further upward movement towards $3050-$3055 . These
levels represent significant upside liquidity, as they are likely areas where stop-loss
orders for short positions and take-profit orders for long positions might be
clustered, making them attractive targets for institutional traders. On the downside,
recent swing lows are mentioned in the $2900-$2956 range , with a deeper low at
$2880 from the previous week . These levels constitute downside liquidity that
could be targeted if the prevailing bullish momentum weakens and the market
experiences a correction.
○​ The Asian trading range for March 19, 2025, appears to have established its
extremes between a high of $3039-$3045 and a low around $3023 . These highs
and lows of the Asian session represent short-term liquidity pools. A break above
the Asian range high could signal a continuation of bullish momentum, as it might
trigger stop-loss orders on short positions initiated during the Asian session.
Conversely, a break below the Asian range low might indicate a potential short-term
reversal, potentially activating stop-loss orders on long positions.
○​ While specific equal highs or lows for the current trading day are not explicitly
mentioned in the snippets, previous analysis from March 14, 2025, noted "Equal
Highs (EQH) → Liquidity above 2,990" , although this liquidity might have already
been addressed by subsequent price action. Various resistance and support levels
identified in the snippets could also act as magnets for liquidity. Notably, the
psychological level of $3000 is highly likely to hold significant liquidity. Round
numbers like $3000 tend to attract a high volume of buy and sell orders due to their
ease of recognition and common use in setting entry and exit points by traders.
Therefore, price interaction around this level should be closely monitored for
potential liquidity grabs and subsequent market movements.
3. Intermediate Layer: Timing & Volatility:
●​ 3.1. Critical ICT Macro Times (Today):
○​ Based on established ICT methodologies, the critical London Macro times for
March 19, 2025, are identified as 02:33–03:00 AM EST (London Macro 1) and
04:03–04:30 AM EST (London Macro 2) . Additionally, the "Silver Bullet" time
window, often associated with high-probability trading setups during the London
session, falls between 03:00-04:00 AM EST . These specific time intervals are
known for heightened algorithmic activity, potentially leading to liquidity sweeps and
market reversals that ICT traders often seek to capitalize on.
○​ For the New York AM session on March 19, 2025, the critical ICT Macro times are
08:50–09:10 AM EST (NY AM Macro 1), 09:50–10:10 AM EST (NY AM Macro 2),
 and 10:50–11:10 AM EST (NY AM Macro 3) . Similar to the London session, the
New York AM session also features a "Silver Bullet" time window, which occurs
between 10:00-11:00 AM EST , overlapping with the latter part of NY AM Macro 2
and the beginning of NY AM Macro 3. These timeframes are considered
high-probability windows for identifying trading setups aligned with institutional
order flow during the New York morning.
○​ Beyond the primary London and New York AM Macro times, ICT methodology also
identifies other relevant time windows throughout the New York trading session.
These include the New York Lunch Macro, occurring from 11:50 AM–12:10 PM
EST, the New York PM Macro, from 01:10–01:40 PM EST (with a "Silver Bullet"
often observed around 02:00-03:00 PM EST ), and the New York Last Hour Macro,
which takes place from 03:15–03:45 PM EST . These additional macro windows
provide further potential opportunities for traders to identify high-probability trading
setups that align with algorithmic market behavior during specific intervals of the
New York trading day.
●​ 3.2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) from the Past 48 Hours:
○​ Pinpointing specific Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) from the past 48 hours requires
precise chart data that is not fully available within the provided snippets. However,
analysis from March 17, 2025, indicates the presence of areas marked as FVG on
the chart , suggesting that price imbalances have occurred recently. Furthermore,
analysis from March 19, 2025, mentions a potential FVG zone on the H1 chart in
the 2948-2986 range, describing it as a deeper liquidity level . This suggests that if
the price retraces to this area, it could encounter support as the market seeks to fill
this inefficiency. Additionally, a potential move towards 3034 after a retracement is
mentioned in analysis from March 19, 2025 , hinting at the possibility of a bullish
FVG having formed during the recent upward surge, potentially in the 3000-3034
range, which could also act as a support level upon a pullback. The concept of
Inversion Fair Value Gaps (IFVGs) also suggests that any bearish FVGs that might
have been violated by subsequent bullish price action above the current level could
potentially act as future support.
○​ Similar to bullish FVGs, identifying specific bearish FVGs from the past 48 hours
necessitates detailed price action data. Given the strong upward momentum
observed in XAUUSD, any bearish FVGs that might have formed during short-term
downward movements within the overall bullish trend could have been quickly
mitigated by the subsequent buying pressure. However, it is plausible that
unmitigated bearish FVGs exist in the immediate vicinity of the current price or
above, and these could potentially act as resistance levels if the price attempts to
move higher. The concept of Inversion Fair Value Gaps (IFVGs) also implies that
any bullish FVGs that were violated by subsequent bearish price action below the
current level could potentially act as future resistance. Without precise chart data
and timestamps, the exact locations and significance of these potential bearish
FVGs remain speculative.
4. Advanced Layer: Divergence & Institutional Signals:
●​ 4.1. SMT Divergence between XUSD and USDX:
○​ As of March 19, 2025, the US Dollar Index (USDX) is exhibiting a degree of
strength or at least demonstrating stabilization in the 103.50-103.71 range . This
follows a previous decline where the USDX had weakened . Concurrently, XAUUSD
is experiencing a robust bullish rally, consistently reaching new all-time highs above
 the $3030 mark [multiple snippets].
○​ This observed price action presents a notable instance of Smart Money Technique
(SMT) divergence. Traditionally, gold and the US Dollar Index tend to exhibit an
inverse correlation, where a weakening dollar typically supports higher gold prices,
and vice versa. However, on March 19, 2025, gold is rallying strongly even as the
USDX is not showing significant weakness; in fact, it has even demonstrated some
strengthening or stabilization. This deviation from the typical inverse relationship
suggests that there is strong underlying buying pressure specifically for gold,
potentially driven by factors beyond just the performance of the US dollar. These
factors could include heightened geopolitical tensions, increased safe-haven
demand for gold amid global uncertainties, or other specific market dynamics
influencing the precious metal. This non-symmetry in price movement between
XAUUSD and USDX can be a powerful signal for ICT traders, indicating that the
bullish momentum in gold might be particularly strong and could have a higher
probability of continuing despite the USD's performance.
●​ 4.2. COT Report Analysis (Institutional Positioning):
○​ The most recent Commitment of Traders (COT) report data available pertains to the
positions held as of Tuesday, March 11, 2025, and was released on Friday, March
14, 2025 . This report provides insights into the net positions of various market
participants, including commercial hedgers and non-commercial traders
(speculators) in gold futures.
○​ The COT report indicates that commercial hedgers in gold futures held a net short
position of -265,188 contracts as of March 11, 2025 . Commercial hedgers are
typically entities involved in the physical gold market, such as producers,
merchants, and processors, who use futures contracts primarily for hedging
purposes to mitigate price risks associated with their business activities. Their net
short position suggests that, overall, these commercial participants were positioned
to benefit from a potential decrease in gold prices at the time the report was
compiled. However, it is noteworthy that this net short position had decreased from
the previous reporting period, indicating a slight reduction in their overall bearish
outlook or potentially increased hedging activity against their physical gold holdings
in response to rising prices.
○​ Conversely, non-commercial traders, also known as speculators, held a net long
position of 236.1K contracts as of March 11, 2025 . These traders, which include
large institutions like hedge funds and investment managers, primarily trade to profit
from price movements in the futures market and do not typically have direct interest
in the physical commodity. Their significant net long position reflects a strong bullish
sentiment prevailing among speculative traders in the gold market, aligning with the
recent upward price surge observed in XAUUSD. The divergence in positioning
between the commercial hedgers (net short) and the non-commercial traders (net
long) suggests differing expectations or strategies among these key market
participants. While commercial hedgers are often considered to represent the
"smart money" due to their direct involvement in the physical market, the strong
bullish conviction among speculators can also drive short-term price momentum.
Traders should consider this divergence in institutional positioning as part of their
overall analysis of potential future market direction in gold.
5. Execution Layer: Entry/Exit & Risk:
●​ 5.1. Fibonacci Retracement Levels (Pullback Entries):
 ○​ To identify potential pullback entry points for long positions in XAUUSD, aligning
with the dominant bullish trend, Fibonacci retracement levels can be calculated
based on recent significant swing highs and lows. Considering the latest significant
swing low around $2956, which occurred before the strong upward move, and the
current all-time high of approximately $3045 as the swing high, the following
Fibonacci retracement levels are identified: the 61.8% retracement level is
approximately $2989.78, and the 78.6% retracement level is around $2968.86.
Alternatively, considering a deeper swing low from the previous week at
approximately $2880 and the same swing high of $3045, the 61.8% retracement
level is calculated to be around $2943.09, and the 78.6% retracement level is
approximately $2910.47.
○​ These Fibonacci retracement levels, falling within the approximate ranges of
$2969-$2990 and $2910-$2943, represent potential areas where the price might
find support during a pullback. Traders should closely observe price action at these
levels, looking for confirmation signals such as bullish candlestick patterns or
bounces off these levels, before considering initiating long entry positions. The
choice between using the more recent swing low or the deeper swing low depends
on the individual trader's timeframe and risk tolerance. A trader with a shorter-term
perspective might focus on the retracement levels derived from the $2956 low,
while a trader with a longer-term view might consider the levels based on the $2880
low.
●​ 5.2. Profit Targets & Stop-Loss Zones:
○​ To define potential profit targets for long positions in XAUUSD, Fibonacci extension
levels can be projected based on the same swing highs and lows used for the
retracement calculations. Using the swing low of $2956 and the swing high of
$3045, the 127% Fibonacci extension level is approximately $3078.33, and the
161.8% Fibonacci extension level is around $3090.78. If the deeper swing low of
$2880 is considered, with the same swing high of $3045, the 127% Fibonacci
extension level is approximately $3081.85, and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension
level is around $3111.21.
○​ These Fibonacci extension levels, falling within the approximate ranges of
$3078-$3091 and $3082-$3111, offer potential price targets for traders assuming
the bullish trend in XAUUSD continues. Stop-loss orders for long entry positions
should be strategically placed below key support levels to limit potential losses in
case of a trend reversal or unexpected market volatility. For instance, stop-loss
orders could be placed below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level corresponding
to the chosen swing low. Additionally, considering the proximity of recent swing
lows, such as below $2969 (if using the $2956 swing low) or below $2910 (if using
the $2880 swing low), is crucial for providing a buffer against short-term market
fluctuations. When placing stop-loss orders, traders should also take into account
the location of nearby liquidity pools to avoid being prematurely stopped out by
institutional traders executing liquidity sweeps.
6. Psychological Discipline:
●​ 6.1. Higher Timeframe Alignment:
○​ The analysis consistently indicates a strong bullish trend prevailing on both the daily
and weekly charts for XAUUSD as of March 19, 2025. This dominant trend signifies
a persistent upward bias in the market.
○​ To enhance the probability of success and mitigate the risk of being caught in
 short-term market fluctuations or counter-trend movements, it is paramount for
traders to align their trading decisions with this overarching bullish trend. The
primary focus should be on identifying and executing long entry opportunities on
lower timeframes during periods of price retracement or consolidation. Attempting
to trade against the dominant trend by initiating short positions is generally
discouraged unless there is compelling evidence of a significant trend reversal on
the higher timeframes, accompanied by strong confluence of bearish signals.
Respecting the higher timeframe bullish bias will help traders avoid unnecessary
losses and increase their chances of capturing profitable moves in the direction of
the prevailing market momentum.
●​ 6.2. Risk Management:
○​ Implementing robust risk management principles is fundamental for achieving
long-term success in trading. A widely recommended guideline is to limit the
maximum risk on any single trade to a small percentage of the total trading capital,
typically in the range of 1-2%. This practice helps to protect against the erosion of
capital due to a series of losing trades.
○​ Furthermore, it is advisable to target a Risk:Reward ratio of at least 1:2 or higher for
each trade. This means that the potential profit sought from a trade should be at
least twice the amount of the potential loss that would be incurred if the stop-loss
order is triggered. Adhering to such a risk-reward profile ensures that winning
trades generate significantly more profit than losing trades, thereby contributing to
overall profitability over time, even if the win rate is below 50%. Consistently
applying these risk management principles fosters a disciplined trading approach
and helps to preserve capital, which are crucial for sustainable success in the
financial markets.
7. Conclusion:
XAUUSD, as analyzed through the lens of ICT methodologies on March 19, 2025, is firmly
entrenched in a strong bullish trend across both daily and weekly timeframes. This upward
trajectory has led to the establishment of new historical highs, indicating significant buying
pressure. While market structure analysis supports the continuation of this bullish momentum
with recent Break of Structure signals, traders should remain attentive to the potential for a
Change of Character developing on lower timeframes. Key order block areas in both London
and New York sessions provide potential zones for price reactions. Liquidity pools around recent
swing highs and lows, as well as the Asian range extremes, represent likely targets for price
movement. The observation of SMT divergence between XAUUSD and USDX suggests
underlying strength in gold that transcends typical dollar correlations. Although the latest COT
report reveals commercial hedgers maintaining a net short position, the strong net long
positioning of speculators underscores the prevailing bullish sentiment. Potential pullback entry
opportunities can be identified using Fibonacci retracement levels, with profit targets projected
using Fibonacci extensions. However, the net short position of commercial hedgers and
overbought conditions on higher timeframes serve as reminders of the potential for future
corrections. Therefore, it is paramount for traders to prioritize alignment with the dominant
higher timeframe bullish trend, while rigorously adhering to sound risk management principles,
including limiting risk per trade and targeting a favorable Risk:Reward ratio, to navigate the
XAUUSD market effectively.
●​ Table 1: Key Support and Resistance Levels
Level Type Price Level Source
Pivot Point Resistance 1 3047.74 Barchart
Resistance Level 3050-3055 TradingView Analyst
Pivot Point Resistance 2 3061.30 Barchart
Pivot Point Resistance 3 3085.07 Barchart
Support Level 3005-3008 TradingView Analyst
Pivot Point Support 1 3010.41 Barchart
Support Level 3015-3024 TradingView Analyst
Support Level 3027 TradingView Analyst
Pivot Point Support 2 2986.64 Barchart
Pivot Point Support 3 2973.08 Barchart
●​ Table 2: ICT Macro Times (March 19, 2025, EST)
Session Macro Time Window Notes
London 02:33 - 03:00 AM London Macro 1
London 03:00 - 04:00 AM Silver Bullet
London 04:03 - 04:30 AM London Macro 2
New York AM 08:50 - 09:10 AM NY AM Macro 1
New York AM 09:50 - 10:10 AM NY AM Macro 2
New York AM 10:00 - 11:00 AM Silver Bullet
New York AM 10:50 - 11:10 AM NY AM Macro 3
New York Lunch 11:50 AM - 12:10 PM
New York PM 01:10 - 01:40 PM
New York PM 02:00 - 03:00 PM Silver Bullet
New York Last 03:15 - 03:45 PM Last Hour Macro
●​ Table 3: Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Levels (Swing Low: ~2956, Swing
High: ~3045)
Level Type Price Level
61.8% Retracement ~2989.78
78.6% Retracement ~2968.86
127% Extension ~3078.33
161.8% Extension ~3090.78
●​ Table 4: Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Levels (Swing Low: ~2880, Swing
High: ~3045)
Level Type Price Level
61.8% Retracement ~2943.09
78.6% Retracement ~2910.47
127% Extension ~3081.85
161.8% Extension ~3111.21
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered
financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and individuals should conduct their own
thorough research and risk assessment before making any trading decisions.

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Price Forecast: Remains Bearish Near 103.50 Despite Recent Recovery - Equityworld Futures
Portal News,
http://www.ewfpro.com/index.php/en/commodity/139-currencies/market-update-us-dollar/91809-
us-dollar-index-price-forecast-remains-bearish-near-103-50-despite-recent-recovery 23. US
Dollar Strengthens Ahead Of Fed Decision,
https://www.ewfpro.com/index.php/en/commodity/139-currencies/market-update-us-dollar/91817
-us-dollar-strengthens-ahead-of-fed-decision 24. US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Remains
Bearish Near 103.50 Despite Recent Recovery - Bestprofit Futures Portal News,
https://www.bpfnews.com/index.php/en/commodity/139-currencies/market-update-us-dollar/922
22-us-dollar-index-price-forecast-remains-bearish-near-103-50-despite-recent-recovery 25.
Markets Mixed Midweek | Wednesday, March 19, 2025 - Successful Farming,
https://www.agriculture.com/markets-mixed-midweek-or-wednesday-march-19-2025-11699655
26. Gold Surpasses $3000 as Fed Decision Looms – What's Next for XAU/USD?,
https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/03/15/gold-surpasses-3000-as-fed-decision-looms-whats-
next-for-xau-usd/ 27. CFTC Gold speculative net positions - Investing.com,
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cftc-gold-speculative-positions-1618 28. COT
data, COT report & COT index up to date - InsiderWeek, https://insider-week.com/en/cot/