Probability With Applications and R Second Edition Amy Shepherd Wagaman Instant Download
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Probability with applications and R Second Edition Amy
Shepherd Wagaman Digital Instant Download
Author(s): Amy Shepherd Wagaman; Robert P. Dobrow
ISBN(s): 9781119692416, 1119692415
Edition: Second
File Details: PDF, 8.09 MB
Year: 2021
Language: english
PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY
With Applications and R
Second Edition
AMY S. WAGAMAN
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Amherst College
Amherst, MA
ROBERT P. DOBROW
Department of Mathematics
Carleton College
Northfield, MN
This edition first published 2021
© 2021 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Edition History
John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (1e, 2014)
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any
form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by law.
Advice on how to obtain permission to reuse material from this title is available at
http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.
The rights of Amy S. Wagaman and Robert P. Dobrow to be identified as the authors of this work has been asserted in
accordance with law.
Registered Office
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA
Editorial Office
111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA
For details of our global editorial offices, customer services, and more information about Wiley products visit us at
www.wiley.com.
Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some content that appears in
standard print versions of this book may not be available in other formats.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Amy: To my fantastic, supportive fiancé, Stephen,
my beloved parents (rest in peace, Mom), and my Aunt Pat
Bob: To my wonderful family
Angel, Joe, Danny, Tom
CONTENTS
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
About the Companion Website xvii
Introduction xix
1 First Principles 1
1.1 Random Experiment, Sample Space, Event 1
1.2 What Is a Probability? 3
1.3 Probability Function 4
1.4 Properties of Probabilities 7
1.5 Equally Likely Outcomes 11
1.6 Counting I 12
1.6.1 Permutations 13
1.7 Counting II 16
1.7.1 Combinations and Binomial Coefficients 17
1.8 Problem-Solving Strategies: Complements and Inclusion–Exclusion 26
1.9 A First Look at Simulation 29
1.10 Summary 34
Exercises 36
vii
viii CONTENTS
10 Limits 407
10.1 Weak Law of Large Numbers 409
10.1.1 Markov and Chebyshev Inequalities 411
10.2 Strong Law of Large Numbers 415
10.3 Method of Moments 421
10.4 Monte Carlo Integration 424
10.5 Central Limit Theorem 428
10.5.1 Central Limit Theorem and Monte Carlo 436
10.6 A Proof of the Central Limit Theorem 437
10.7 Summary 439
Exercises 440
References 511
Index 515
PREFACE
xi
xii PREFACE
We use the free software R and provide supplemental resources (on the text website)
for getting students up to speed in using and understanding the language. We rec-
ommend that students work through the introductory R supplement, and encourage
use of the other supplements that enhance the code and discussion from the textbook
with additional practice. The book is not meant to be an instruction manual in R;
we do not teach programming. But the book does have numerous examples where
a theoretical concept or exact calculation is reinforced by a computer simulation.
The R language offers simple commands for generating samples from probability
distributions. The book references numerous R script files, that are available for
download, and are contained in the R supplements, also available for download
from the text website. It also includes many short R “one-liners” that are easily
shown in the classroom and that students can quickly and easily duplicate on their
computer. Throughout the book are numerous “R” display boxes that contain these
code and scripts. Students and instructors may use the supplements and scripts to
run the book code without having to retype it themselves. The supplements also
include more detail on some examples and questions for further practice.
In addition to simulation, another emphasis of the book is on applications. We try
to motivate the use of probability throughout the sciences and find examples from
subjects as diverse as homelessness, genetics, meteorology, and cryptography. At
the same time, the book does not forget its roots, and there are many classical chest-
nuts like the problem of points, Buffon’s needle, coupon collecting, and Montmort’s
problem of coincidences. Within the context of the examples, when male and female
are referred to (such as in the example on colorblindness affecting males more than
females), we note that this refers to biological sex, not gender identity. As such, we
use the term “sex” not “gender” in the text.
Following is a synopsis of the book’s 11 chapters.
Chapter 1 begins with basics and general principles: random experiment, sample
space, and event. Probability functions are defined and important properties
derived. Counting, including the multiplication principle, permutations, and
combinations (binomial coefficients) are introduced in the context of equally
likely outcomes. A first look at simulation gives accessible examples of sim-
ulating several of the probability calculations from the chapter.
Chapter 2 emphasizes conditional probability, along with the law of total prob-
ability and Bayes formula. There is substantial discussion of the birthday
problem. It closes with a discussion of independence.
Random variables are the focus of Chapter 3. The most important discrete
distributions—binomial, Poisson, and uniform—are introduced early and
serve as a regular source of examples for the concepts to come.
Chapter 4 contains extensive material on discrete random variables, including
expectation, functions of random variables, and variance. Joint discrete
distributions are introduced. Properties of expectation, such as linearity, are
presented, as well as the method of indicator functions. Covariance and
correlation are first introduced here.
PREFACE xiii
• Over 200 examples throughout the text and some 800 end-of-chapter exercises.
Includes short numerical solutions for most odd-numbered exercises.
xiv PREFACE
• Learning outcomes at the start of each chapter provide information for instruc-
tors and students. The learning outcome with a (C) is a computational learning
outcome.
• End-of-chapter summaries highlight the main ideas and results from each
chapter for easy access.
• Chapter review exercises, which are provided online, offer a good source of
additional problems for students preparing for midterm and/or final exams.
• Starred subsections are optional and contain more challenging material and
may assume a higher mathematical level.
• The R supplements (available online) contain the book code and scripts with
enhanced discussion, additional examples, and questions for practice for inter-
ested students and instructors.
• The introductory R supplement introduces students to the basics of R.
(Enhanced version of first edition Appendix A, available online as part of the
R supplements.)
• A website containing relevant material (including the R supplements, script
files, and chapter review exercises) and errata has been established. The URL
is www.wiley.com/go/wagaman/probability2e.
• An instructor’s solutions manual with detailed solutions to all the exercises is
available for instructors who teach from this book.
Amy
Amherst, MA
September 2020
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
xv
xvi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
www.wiley.com/go/wagaman/probability2e
xvii
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“He takes a bow; he fits an arrow to the string; he aims at the
effigy.”
“Look on: as you love your life, when that arrow leaves the string,
plunge beneath the water till you hear me call.”
“He shoots!” exclaimed the knight as he dived beneath the water.
“Come out; look again at the mirror; what seest thou?”
“An arrow is sticking in the wall, by the side of the figure. The
sorcerer seems angry; he draws out the arrow, and prepares to shoot
again from a nearer place.”
“As you value your life, do as before.”
Again the good knight plunged, and at the old man’s call resumed
his inspection of the mirror.
“What seest thou now?” asked the old man.
“Maleficus has again missed the image; he makes great
lamentations; he says to my wife: ‘If I miss the third time, I die’; he
goes nearer to the image, and prepares to shoot.”
“Plunge!” cried the old man; and then, after a time: “Raise thyself,
and look again; why laughest thou?”
“To see the reward of the wicked; the arrow has missed, rebounded
from the wall, and pierced the sorcerer; he faints, he dies, my wife
stands over his body, and weeps; she digs a hole under the bed, and
buries the body.”
“Arise, sir knight: resume your apparel, and give God thanks for
your great deliverance.”
A year and more elapsed before the good knight returned from his
pilgrimage. His wife welcomed him with smiles and every
appearance of pleasure. For a few days the knight concealed his
knowledge of his wife’s conduct. At length he summoned all his and
her kinsfolk, and they feasted in commemoration of his return from
his dangerous pilgrimage.
“Brother,” said the knight during the feast, “how is it that I neither
hear nor see aught of Maleficus, the great magician?”
“He disappeared, we know not whither, the very day that you
departed for your pilgrimage.”
“And where did he die?” asked the knight, with a look at his wife.
“We know not that he is dead,” replied the guests.
“How should a sorcerer die?” asked the knight’s wife with a sneer.
“If not dead, why did you bury him?” rejoined the knight.
“Bury him! what meanest thou, my lord? I bury him!”
“Yes, you bury him,” said the knight, calmly.
“Brothers, he is mad,” exclaimed the lady, turning pale and
trembling.
“Woman,” replied the knight, rising, and seizing the lady by the
wrist, “woman, I am not mad. Hear ye all: this woman loved
Maleficus; she called him here the day I sailed; she devised with him
my death; but God struck him with that death he would have
prepared for me, and now he lies buried in my chamber. Come, let us
see this great wonder.”
The hiding-place of the body was opened, and the remains found
where the knight had said; then did he declare before the judges and
the people the great crimes of his wife; and the judges condemned
her to death at the stake, and bade the executioner scatter her ashes
to the four winds of heaven.
“Few practices were more prevalent among the witches than that which your tale
illustrates, of effecting the death of an enemy through the medium of an enchanted
image of the person intended to be affected,” said Herbert.
“As old Ben Jonson sings:
“Yes,” said Herbert; “it was a very approved method to melt a waxen image
before the fire, under the idea that the person by it represented would pine away,
as the figure melted; or to stick pins and needles into the heart or less vital parts of
the waxen resemblance, with the hopes of affecting, by disease and pain, the
portions of the human being thus represented and treated.”
“In one of the old ballad romances in which Alexander is celebrated, we find a
full account of the wondrous puppets of a king and magician named Nectabanus. I
will read you the old verses.
“‘Barons were whilhome wise and good,
That this art well understood;
And one there was, Nectabanus,
Wise in this art, and malicious;
When king or earl came on him to war,
Quick he looked on the star;
Of wax, made him puppets,
And made them fight with bats (clubs);
And so he learned Je vous dis,
Aye to quell his enemy
With charms and with conjurisons:
Thus he assayed the regions,
That him came for to assail,
In very manner of battail;
By clear candle in the night,
He made each one with other fight.’”
“No bad way,” said Thompson, “of testing the advantage of that royal and
national luxury—war.”
“The rhymer makes his charms successful, especially in the case of one King
Philip, a great and powerful prince, who brought nine-and-twenty great lords to
battle against Nectabanus. Once put into his charmed basin, the magician saw the
end of the battle, the defeat and death of his enemy.”
“The old Romans had as much fear of the waxen image, as good King James,”
remarked Herbert; “and were as firm believers in the feats of Canidia over the
enchanted model, as the Scottish King in the modelling of his national wiches, and
the secret cavern on the hill, where Satan and his imps manufacture devils’ arrows
to shoot at the enemies of the witches.”
“‘Sympathia Magica works wondrous charms,’ says Scott; and so before him
dreamt the Arabian philosophers, and the royal witch-finder, who founds his
arguments against waxen images on the doctrine of sympathy,” said Thompson.
“It is worth remarking,” said Herbert, “how witchcraft degenerated, not in its
powers, but in its persons of the supposed witches. Joan of Arc, the wife of the
protector Somerset, the mistress of Richard III., were in early days deemed worthy
of being punished as witches. In later days, the charge was confined to the oldest,
the ugliest, and generally the poorest crone in the neighborhood.”
“With the fashion of political-witchcraft, the custom of charging persons of rank
with the crime, died away,” replied Lathom. “Instead of torturing images, or
raising spirits for the sake of crowns and thrones, the witches became content to
tease a neighbor’s child, or render a farmer’s cow barren. The last instance of such
a charge against a person of rank, is the case of the Countess of Essex. The charges
of sorcery, however, formed but a small portion of the accusations against the
countess.”
“We are forgetting the moral,” said Thompson.
“It is short and plain,” answered Lathom, “and intended to be illustrative of the
advantage of the confession of sins. The good knight is the soul of man, and his
wicked wife the flesh of his body. The pilgrimage represents our good deeds. The
wise magician, a prudent priest. Maleficus stands as the representative of the
Devil, and the image is human pride and vanity; add to these the bath of
confession, and the mirror of the sacred writings, by which the arrows of sin are
warded off, and the allegory is complete.”
“Does your storehouse afford another magical tale?” asked Thompson.
“Many more; I will read one that is short, but curious, from its being founded on
a generally received legend of the monk Gerbert, afterwards Pope Sylvester. I will
call it, for want of a better name,
“THE CLERK AND THE IMAGE.”
In the city of Rome stood an image: its posture was erect, with the
right hand extended; on the middle finger of the outstretched hand
was written: “Strike here.” Years and years had the image stood
there, and no one knew the secret of the inscription. Many wise men
from every land came and looked at the statue, and many were the
solutions of the mystery attempted by them; each man was satisfied
with his own conclusion, but no one else agreed with him.
Among the many that attempted to unravel the mystery of the
figure was a certain priest. As he looked at the image, he noticed that
when the sun shone on the figure, the shadow of the outstretched
finger was discernible on the ground at some distance from the
statue. He marked the spot, and waited until the night was come; at
midnight, he began to dig where the shadow ceased; for three feet he
found nothing but earth and stones; he renewed his labor, and felt
his spade strike against something hard; he continued his work with
greater zeal, and found a trap-door, which he soon cleared, and
proceeded to raise.
Below the door, a flight of marble steps descended into the earth,
and a bright light streamed upward from below. Casting down his
spade, the priest descended; at the foot of the stairs he entered a vast
hall; a number of men, habited in costly apparel, and sitting in
solemn silence, occupied the centre; around, and on every side, were
riches innumerable: piles of gold and enamelled vases; rich and
glittering robes, and heaps of jewels of the brightest hue.
The hall was lighted by one jewel alone; a carbuncle so bright, so
dazzling, that the priest could hardly bear to gaze upon it, where it
stood in a corner of the hall. At the opposite end of the hall stood an
armed archer; his bow was strung, and the arrow fitted to the string,
and he seemed to take aim at the carbuncle; his brow blazed with
reflected light, and on it was written: “I am, that I am; my shaft is
inevitable: yon glittering jewel cannot escape its stroke.”
Beyond the great hall appeared another chamber, into which the
priest, amazed at what he saw, entered. It was fitted as a
bedchamber, couches of every kind ornamented it, and many
beautiful women, arrayed in robes as costly as those worn in the
great hall, occupied the chamber. Here too all was mute; the
beautiful damsels sat in silence.
Still the priest went onward. There were rooms after rooms,
stables filled with horses and asses, and granaries stored with
abundant forage. He placed his hand on the horses, they were cold,
lifeless stone. Servants stood round about, their lips were closed—all
was silent as the grave; and yet what was there wanting—what but
life?
“I have seen to-day what no man wall believe,” said the priest, as
he re-entered the great hall; “let me take something whereby to prove
the credit of my story.”
As he thus spake to himself, he saw some vases and jewel-handed
knives on a marble table beside him; he raised his hand, he clasped
them, he placed them in the bosom of his garment—all was dark.
The archer had shot with his arrow; the carbuncle was broken into
a thousand pieces—a thick darkness covered the place; hour after
hour he wandered about the halls and passages—all was dark—all
was cold—all was desolate; the stairs seemed to have fled, he found
no opening, and he laid him down and died a miserable death, amid
those piles of gold and jewels, his only companions the lifeless
images of stone. His secret died with him.
“Spenser in his Fairy Queen seems to have had some such tale as this in his
mind, in his scene in the House of Riches,” remarked Herbert.
“You allude to the fiend watching Sir Gouyon, and hoping that he will be
tempted to snatch some of the treasures of the subterraneous palace, so freely
displayed to his view.”
“Sir Gouyon fares better than your priest,” replied Herbert; he resists the
temptation, and escapes the threatened doom; as the poet says:
Had I not that dark black horse as a witness of the combat, I should
begin to doubt whether I had met the demon.”
“Let us see the demon’s steed,” said the old lord, after he had
thanked the knight for his relation of the adventure; “even now the
dawn is about to break, and we must seek some little rest before day
shines out.”
In the court-yard they found the black steed; his eye lustrous, his
neck proudly arched, his coat of shining black, and a glittering war
saddle on his back. The first streaks of the dawn began to appear as
they entered the castle yard; the black steed grew restless, and tried
to break from the hands of the groom; he champed his bit, snorted as
in pain and anger, and struck the ground with his feet, until the
sparks flew. The cock crowed—the black steed had disappeared.
Every year, on the self-same night, at that self-same hour, did the
wound of the English knight burst out afresh, and torment him with
severe anguish; to his dying day he bore this memorial of his
encounter with the demon champion of the Vandal camp.
“You have made good use of Scott’s version of the tale in Marmion,” said
Thompson, “to whom I should think your version of the story was hardly known.”
“No; if I remember rightly, he gives the old Durham tale of Ralph Bulmer as its
immediate source, and the strange tale of the Bohemian knights as related by
Heywood, in his Hierarchie of the Blessed Angels.”
“The introduction to the story recalls the custom so adroitly used by Chaucer to
introduce his Canterbury tales,” remarked Herbert; “tale-telling round the fire.”
“When there was neither juggler nor minstrel present,” replied Lathom, “it
seems to have been the custom of our ancestors to entertain themselves by relating
or hearing a series of adventures.”
“So that Chaucer’s plan, at first sight so ingenious an invention, is in truth an
equally ingenious adaptation of an ancient fashion.”
“But to return to our demonology,” said Lathom; “what notion was more
common than that spirits could assume the human form, and live on earth, and
mingle as mortals in social life? This belief we find illustrated by the author or
authors of the Gesta.”
“The stay, however, of these spirits is generally but a lease of life for so many
years,” remarked Herbert.
“Generally; but not in the case which my author gravely lays down as true, under
the title of
“THE SEDUCTIONS OF THE EVIL ONE.”
It often happens that the devils are permitted to transform
themselves into angels of light, or to assume the human form, in
order to foster in human hearts whatever is wicked. So did it happen
in France, when Valentine was bishop of Arles.
On the very borders of his diocese stood a knight’s castle, with lofty
and strong battlements. The knight had travelled in many lands, and
seen many nations that none others had looked upon or heard of. He
was a good man, and a constant attendant on the services of the
Church. His wife was very fair to look upon; her figure was light and
tall; her face delicately white, and her eyes ever bright, and sparkling
with almost unearthly brilliancy. Attracted by cries of distress, whilst
on one of his distant pilgrimages, he had hastened into a dark wood,
where he discovered this fair lady, almost denuded of her garments,
bound to a tree, and being beaten with rods by two men of fierce
countenances and powerful frames.
His sword flashed in the air as the knight rode against the men;
with one blow he struck down the nearest of the lady’s torturers; with
the second he pierced the breast of the other monster; whilst with a
third stroke of his trenchant blade he cut in pieces the cords that
bound the lady to the tree.
The lady’s tale was simple: she was the daughter of a powerful
prince of a far-off land; had been seized by those in whose hands the
knight discovered her; carried for days and months over seas and
lands, and at last bound to the tree, and scourged because she would
not yield to the desires of her tormentors. She knew not where her
father’s kingdom lay, and its name was unknown even to the knight,
though he had travelled far and often.
After a time, the knight married the lady of the wood; happy were
they by their union, for he loved her dearly, and the lady seemed to
return his love. One thing alone grieved the good knight. Every day
that she came to the service of the Church, she stayed no longer than
the beginning of the consecration of the elements of the Sacrament.
Often and often had the good knight remonstrated with his wife on
her conduct, and sought from her some reason for her action. There
was ever some excuse, but it was always unsatisfactory.
One holiday the knight and the lady were at church. The priest was
proceeding to the celebration of the Sacrament, and the lady rose as
usual.
“Nay,” said the knight, forcibly arresting his wife’s departure; “nay,
not for this once.”
The lady struggled, her eyes gleamed with redoubled brilliancy,
and her whole body seemed wrung with violent pain.
“In the name of God, depart not,” said the knight.
That holy name was all-powerful. The bodily form of the lady
melted away, and was seen no more; whilst, with a cry of anguish
and of terror, an evil spirit of monstrous form rose from the ground,
clave the chapel roof asunder, and disappeared in the air.
“Such stories might be multiplied by hundreds,” said Herbert. “Every country
has its good and evil angels that live among men and assume their forms.”
“It illustrates the curious fact,” remarked Lathom, “that the earliest accusations
of sorcery in Christian ages are connected with relapses from the faith of Christ.
The Anglo-Saxon laws against witchcraft are levelled against those who still
adhered to the heathen practices of their ancestors, or sought to combine the pure
faith of the Bible with the superstitions of their ancestral idolatry.”
“Was not such the fact in the south of Europe?” said Herbert; “the still lingering
worship of the gods and goddesses of the woods was visited as sorcery. The
demons do but occupy their places under forms, and with opinions, gradually
adapted to the religious opinions of the age.”
“Many a secret meeting for the worship of God has been made the foundation of
the mysteries of a witch’s Sabbath,” said Lathom; “sorcery was a common charge
against the early Christians when they met in their secret caves and hiding-places;
it was an equally current accusation centuries afterwards, when the Albigenses and
Waldenses held their religious assemblages in secret, for fear of the power of that
Church whose teaching they seceded from.”
“The same charges were made, in Sweden and Scotland, in the seventeenth
century, against witches, as four centuries before, so little changed is superstition,”
said Herbert.
“We must beat a truce,” said Lathom, “and be content to leave the rest of our
illustrations of natural magic, witchcraft, and demoniacal agency, until our next
meeting.”
“Good-night, then,” said Thompson; “remember, the witches’ time of night
approaches—
“‘The owl is abroad, the bat, and the toad,
And so is the cat-a-mountain,
The ant and the mole, sit both in a hole,
And the frog peeps out of the fountain.’”
CHAPTER X.
The porter in his lodge made his fire blaze brightly, and solaced
himself with Christmas cheer, every now and then grumbling at his
office, that kept him from the gayeties of the retainers’ hall. The wind
blew cold, the sleet fell quick, as the bell of the king’s gate sounded
heavy and dull.
“Who comes now?” grumbled the porter; “a pretty night to turn
out from fire and food. Why, the very bell itself finds it too cold to
clank loudly. Well, well—duty is duty; some say it’s a pleasure—
humph! Hilloa, friend, who are you? what do you want, man?”
The traveller whom the porter thus addressed was a tall, weather-
beaten man, with long white hair that fluttered from beneath his cap
of furs, and whose figure, naturally tall and robust, seemed taller and
larger from the vast cloak of bearskins with which he was enveloped.
“I am a merchant from a far country,” said the man; “many
wonderful things do I bring to your emperor, if he will purchase of
my valuables.”
“Well, come in, come in, man,” said the porter; “the king keeps
high Christmas feast, and on this night all men may seek his
presence. Wilt take some refreshment, good sir?”
“I am never hungry, nor thirsty, nor cold.”
“I’m all,—there—straight before you, good sir—the hall porter will
usher you in—straight before,” muttered the old porter, as he
returned to his fire and his supper. “Never hungry, thirsty, nor cold—
what a good poor man he would make; humph! he loses many a
pleasure, though,” continued the porter, as he closed the door of the
lodge.
The strange merchant presented himself to the hall porter, and
was ushered by him into the presence of the emperor.
“Whom have we here?” said Domitian, as the strange visitor made
his obeisance. “What seekest thou of me?”
“I bring many things from far countries. Wilt thou buy of my
curiosities?”
“Let us see them,” rejoined Domitian.
“I have three maxims of especial wisdom and excellence, my lord.”
“Let us hear them.”
“Nay, my lord; if thou hearest them, and likest not, then I have lost
both my maxims and my money.”
“And if I pay without hearing them, and they are useless, I lose my
time and my money. What is the price?”
“A thousand florins, my lord.”
“A thousand florins for that of which I know not what it is,” replied
the king.
“My lord,” rejoined the merchant, “if the maxims do not stand you
in good stead, I will return the money.”
“Be it so then; let us hear your maxims.”
“The first, my lord, is on this wise: Never begin any thing until
you have calculated what the end will be.”
“I like your maxim much,” said the king; “let it be recorded in the
chronicles of the kingdom, inscribed on the walls and over the doors
of my palaces and halls of justice, and interwoven on the borders of
the linen of my table and my chamber.”
“The second, my lord, is: Never leave a highway for the bye-
way.”
“I see not the value of this maxim; but to the third.”
“Never sleep in the house where the master is an old man
and the wife a young woman. These three maxims, if attended to,
my lord, will stand you in good stead.”
“We shall see,” said the king; “a year and a day for the trial of each,
at the end of this time we will settle accounts.”
“Good master,” said the king’s jester, “wilt sell thy chance of the
thousand florins for my fool’s cap?”
“Wait, and see what the end will be,” rejoined the merchant; “a
year and a day hence I will return to see how my first maxim has
fared. Farewell, my lord....”
The year and a day were nearly elapsed, and yet the first maxim
had not been clearly proved. Domitian remained severely just, and
the ill-intentioned of his nobles plotted his destruction in the hopes
of indulging their vices more freely under the rule of his successor.
Many were the plots they concocted to put him to death, but all were
foiled by his foresight and prudence.
“Every failure,” said the conspirators at a midnight meeting,
“brings danger nearer to ourselves.”
“Even so, brothers, but this time we will not fail,” said one of the
number; “do ye not mind that I am the king’s barber; every day he
bares his throat to my razor, it is but one slash, and we are free;
promise me the crown: in return for this, I will give you freedom by
the king’s death, and free license during my reign.”
“It is well spoken,” cried all the conspirators; “the barber shall be
our king.”
On the next morning, the barber entered the chamber of Domitian,
and prepared to shave the king. The razor was stropped, the lather
spread upon the royal chin, and the towel fastened round the royal
breast. On the edge of the napkin were these words in letters of gold:
“Never begin any thing until you have calculated what the end will
be.”
The barber’s eye fell on these words, they arrested his attention, he
paused in his labors.
“What am I about to do?” thought he to himself, “to kill the king,
to gain his crown; am I sure of the crown? shall I not rather be slain
miserably, and die amid unheard-of tortures and infamy? whilst
those that plot with me will turn against me, and make me their
scape-goat.”
“Art dreaming, sir barber?” exclaimed the king.
At the king’s voice, the barber trembled exceedingly, he dropt the
razor from his hand, and fell at his sovereign’s feet.
“What means all this?”
“Oh, my good lord!” exclaimed the barber, as he knelt trembling at
Domitian’s feet, “this day was I to have killed thee; but I saw the
maxim written on the napkin; I thought of the consequences, and
now repent me of my wickedness. Mercy, my good lord, mercy!”
“Be faithful, and fear not,” replied the king.
“The merchant, my lord the king,” said a servant of the chamber,
who entered at that moment, followed by the old merchant.
“Thou art come at a good time, sir merchant; the first maxim has
been proved; it has saved my life; it was worthy of its price.”
“Even as I expected, my lord; a year and a day hence expect me
again.”
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