Syria Actors—December 2024
Syria Actors
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Syria Actors—December 2024
The Syrian Arab Army (SAA)
The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) forms the backbone of Syria’s military structure.
Established by the French in 1945, it has participated in significant conflicts,
including Islamist uprisings and wars against Israel.
Currently commanded by Bashar Al-Assad, the SAA consists of
approximately 170,000 personnel.
While relatively well-armed, its soldiers are poorly compensated, earning
less than $100 per month.
The military suffers from widespread corruption and a nepotistic hierarchy,
resulting in ineffective and compromised leadership.
Operationally, the SAA is considered ineffective. Under pressure, its soldiers
are unlikely to demonstrate strong loyalty to the regime. Reports indicate
that following the collapse of military control in northern Syria and the
redeployment of units to southern areas such as Daraa and Sweida, the
army is experiencing defections and disintegration.
Neighbouring countries, including Iraq and Israel, are already preparing for
the potential total collapse of the Syrian military and regime, with Israel
Official Name: Syrian Arab Army (SAA), part of
adding forces in the Golan Heights.
the Syrian Armed Forces.
It is also important to note that the Syrian regime and the SAA, along with
Founded
Iran and Iraq, have played key roles in providing logistical support to
Hezbollah and Hamas in their operations against Israel and now, according Established in 1945, with its current structure
to recent Reuters reports, Hezbollah has deployed forces to the Syrian city formalized in 1971.
of Homs to prevent its capture by anti-government fighters. Current Strength
Homs serves as a critical link between Damascus and key coastal regions, Approximately 170,000 active personnel as of
acting as a vital corridor for Iranian military supplies to Hezbollah in 2023, with an additional 50,000 reserve
Lebanon. The city also holds strategic importance for Iran’s Islamic
personnel
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Leadership
6th December
In Daraa, rebel groups clashed with SAA forces, expelling them from Commander-in-Chief: Bashar al-Assad
checkpoints, police stations, and intelligence headquarters. The 52nd Minister of Defense: Gen. Ali Mahmoud Abbas
Mechanized Infantry Brigade was captured by rebel forces.
Chief of General Staff: Gen. Abdul Karim
SAA forces withdrew from different posts in Deir Ezzor, Al-Mayadeen, and Al Mahmoud Ibrahim
-Bokamal, heading towards Damascus.
Opposition forces captured Rastan, Talbisa, and Dar al-Kabira, placing them
on the outskirts of Homs. SAA forces reportedly withdrew from other areas
as well.
In Hasakah, the SDF took full control after SAA forces surrendered their
positions in the city center.
The SAA's 52nd Brigade withdrew from Daraa towards Ar-Tha'la Airbase. Sad—Assad
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Syria Actors—December 2024
Russia's Involvement in Syria timeline.
2011 - The Syrian civil war begins, Russia supports Assad politically and
diplomatically, opposing foreign intervention.
2015 - Russia enters the Syrian conflict. On 30 September, the Federation
Council authorises military action following a request from Assad. Russian
airstrikes commence, targeting opposition groups and Islamic State (IS)
positions.
Russia opens the al-Shayrat airbase near Homs to expand military operations. A Russia
Kilo-class submarine launches cruise missiles against IS targets from the
Since its direct military intervention in
Mediterranean.
2015, Russia has provided substantial
Late 2015 - Russia intensifies its air campaign, deploying strategic bombers to support to President Bashar al-Assad's
target IS and other militant groups across Syria. government. This has included airstrikes,
2016 - Russian forces assist in the recapture of Aleppo, Over 80% of Russian military advisors, and logistical aid, which
airstrikes target opposition militias rather than IS. have allowed the Syrian regime to regain
large areas of territory from rebel groups
2017 - U.S. missile strikes against a Syrian airbase in response to a chemical and ISIS.
attack attributed to Assad. Russia condemns this action and increases its military
presence. Syrian government forces break the IS blockade of Deir Ezzor, aided Russia's involvement has been a
by Russian air support. demonstration of its capability to project
power beyond its borders. By securing its
2018 - A major battle occurs in Eastern Ghouta, with Russian air support naval base in Tartus and airbase in Latakia,
facilitating ground operations against rebel forces. Russia also engages in Russia ensures a strategic foothold in the
diplomatic efforts alongside Iran and Turkey through the Astana process to Eastern Mediterranean, strategic objectives
negotiate ceasefires and political solutions. also include the preservation of the Assad
2019 - Following the U.S. withdrawal from northern Syria, Russia steps in to fill regime, counterterrorism efforts,
the power vacuum, negotiating with both Kurdish forces and Turkey to manage geopolitical leverage, economic interests,
territorial control. and the assertion of regional power.
2020 - Russia solidifies its presence in Syria through military bases and political The latest developments have posed
alliances, while also engaging in reconstruction efforts. significant challenges to these goals.
2021- Military operations focus on countering remaining opposition forces and In response to the HTS led offensive Russia
IS cells while maintaining Assad's regime stability. intensified its military involvement by
conducting airstrikes targeting rebel-held
December 2024
areas, including Aleppo and Idlib. These
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov mentioned that Russia has information strikes aimed to support Syrian
about those supporting armed groups in Syria and expressed intentions to government forces in reclaiming lost
discuss this with Turkey and Iran. There were also suggestions that Israel might territories. Despite these efforts, the rapid
advancements of rebel forces have strained
be interested in escalating the situation in Syria.
Russian military resources, especially
Reports of Russia possibly withdrawing naval assets from Syria and urging its considering Russia's concurrent military
citizens to leave Syria amid the crumbling front of Assad's forces in Aleppo and commitments in Ukraine.
Hama.
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Syria Actors—December 2024
Turkey
Turkey has been involved in Syria for some time, the recent actions can be
viewed as strategic military operations and political manoeuvring. While
officially framed as counter-terrorism efforts, these actions serve to advance
Ankara’s geopolitical interests, particularly hampering Kurdish autonomy and
managing the Syrian refugee population. Over the past week, insurgent forces, Timeline of Turkey's Involvement in Syria
plus Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army 2011 -Turkey initially condemned the
(SNA), achieved territorial gains in northern Syria, capturing strategic cities Syrian government’s violent crackdown on
such as Aleppo and Hama. Although Turkey officially denies direct involvement, protests. It began providing support to the
its support is evident through the active participation of Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) under the
factions, aligning with Turkish objectives. supervision of the Turkish National
From the Turkish side, it’s a goal to weaken Kurdish control in northern Syria, a Intelligence Organisation.
longstanding concern for Turkey due to the perceived link between Kurdish 2012 - Turkey started arming and training
groups in Syria and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). the FSA. Tensions peaked when Syrian
The Syrian based Kurdish groups have been integral to the US-led coalition forces shot down a Turkish fighter jet.
against ISIS and are now cornered amidst the territorial conflicts risking the
2014 - 2015- Allegations of Turkish support
autonomy they had established after the Syrian civil war.
for ISIL / ISIS from journalists in Turkey
Turkey is also trying to mitigate the social and economic impact of hosting a itself as well as Egyptian, Israeli and
large Syrian refugee population thus actions in Syria show Turkey’s its multi- Jordanian Intelligence. Questions around
pronged approach to the conflict. Turkish ISIS support also raised in the EU.
By using its influence over rebel factions and advocating for a political Bashar Al-Assad stated logistical and
resolution, Turkey seeks to address both immediate security threats and long- military support for ISIL came from Turkey.
term strategic objectives, as such, developments on the ground continue to
align with Turkey’s regional goals. 2016- Operation Euphrates Shield -
Turkey's first direct military intervention.
December
The operation aimed to clear ISIS from the
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Turkey had tried to engage border area and prevent the expansion of
with Assad to discuss Syria's future but didn't receive a positive response. He Kurdish forces (YPG).
also mentioned his hope for the Syrian opposition's advance toward Homs and
2018- Operation Olive Branch - Targeting
Damascus to proceed smoothly.
Afrin, this operation aimed to eliminate
There were discussions in the Turkish media and by analysts suggesting YPG presence.
Turkey's involvement with the Syrian opposition's offensive. This includes
2019—Operation Peace Spring - Launched
statements from Erdogan indicating that Turkey is working to moderate the
following the U.S. withdrawal from
situation in Syria to strengthen ties with Jordan and open transport links from
northern Syria, this operation targeted
Aqaba through Syria.
Kurdish forces and aimed to establish a
Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Iranian counterpart Abbas "safe zone" along the border. It involved
Erakchi where it was noted that the latest developments in Syria reveal the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA)
need for Damascus to reconcile with its people and the legitimate opposition. fighters pushing into Syrian territory
2020- Operation Spring Shield - In
2023- Turkey's military operations 2022- Turkey continued to response to Syrian regime advances in
persisted with periodic airstrikes conduct airstrikes against YPG Idlib, Turkey conducted airstrikes and
targeting Kurdish positions. positions in northern Syria. ground operations to halt these offensives.
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Syria Actors—December 2024
National Defense Forces (NDF)
A Pro regime paramilitary group that supported the Syrian government during
the Syrian civil war, formed in 2013 due to recruiting issues in the Syrian Arab
Army. Initial units were formed to protect local neighbourhoods.
The National Defense Forces (NDF) share similarities in formation with Iraq’s
Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) as auxiliary forces formed during internal
conflicts to support their national armies.
Both emerged in response to insurgencies, with the PMF established to combat
ISIS in Iraq and the NDF formed to aid the Syrian government during the civil
war. They each consolidated various militias under unified commands, although
both maintain a degree of autonomy.
Sectarian composition plays a key role, with the PMF predominantly Shia but including Sunni and minority groups, while the
NDF comprises pro-government militias, including Alawite and Christian factions.
Both forces suffer from corruption and allegations of human rights abuses and a difficulty integrating into formal military
structures, both have ties to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
The NDF lack advanced skills with recruits only receiving between 2 weeks to a month depending on the role the individual
will be deployed in.
Notably, the rebel, government opposition forces advancing on the regime have told the NDF to stay home, and it appears
they have.
Hezbollah
Hezbollah, the prominent Shia militant group and political organisation based in
Lebanon, has provided substantial support to the Syrian regime during the civil war.
Founded in the 1980s with Iranian backing, Hezbollah operates as a key ally of both Syria
and Iran, sharing strategic and ideological goals.
The group has deployed thousands of fighters to Syria, playing a major role in critical
battles, including the defense of Damascus and Homs, as well as campaigns in Aleppo
and along the Lebanese / Syrian border.
Hezbollah’s involvement has helped maintain the Assad regime’s position while
solidifying ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Hezbollah relies on the
Assad regime to maintain logistical support from Iran, and in return, it provides logistical
and intelligence support to Assad’s forces.
The relationship between Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah forms a core component of the "Axis
of Resistance," which opposes Western influence in the Middle East. This alliance is
ideologically driven and aims to demonstrate power against perceived threats from
Israel and the United States / The West.
“They will not be able to achieve their goals despite what they have done in past days,
and we as Hezbollah will be by Syria’s side in thwarting the goals of this aggression as
much as we can,” - Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem.
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Syria Actors—December 2024
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) were formed in October 2015 as a
coalition aimed at combating ISIS in northern Syria, predominantly
composed of members of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), with
additional representation from Arab tribes, Christian/Assyrian factions,
and Turkmen tribes.
The force aligns ideologically with the Autonomous Administration of
North and East Syria (AANES), also known as Rojava and controls large
areas in northeastern Syria, according to their spokesman this is
approximately 40% of Syria's territory, the group's territorial gains
following advances into areas previously under the control of the Syrian
regime.
Areas including Raqqa, Hasakah, and parts of Deir ez-Zor. These
territories include key oil fields, providing the group with economic Recent Developments (December 2024)
leverage, however they lost control of the Shahba area in northern SDF issued a statement through its General
Aleppo to opposition factions and HTS leaving many Kurds to flee. Command addressing Turkish aggression and the
With an estimated personnel strength of 60,000 to 80,000 fighters, the significant destruction faced by Syrian regime
SDF continues to recruit and adapt its operational structure. Training for forces, particularly in Aleppo expressing concern
its fighters is supported by U.S. forces and coalition partners, focusing on over the spread of ISIS in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor.
conventional military tactics, urban warfare, and counter-terrorism In response to the current, evolving situation, the
operations. They are trained to a good standard. SDF have reaffirmed that their mission is to
Whilst the SDF has received substantial support from the U.S.-led protect its people and territories, with plans to
coalition in its fight against ISIS, its relationship with Turkey remains act dynamically based on regional developments.
contentious. Turkey views the YPG, a core component of the SDF, as an Additionally, this week, the Iraqi army and the
extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Ankara SDF established a "joint operations room" to
designates as a terrorist organisation. This has led to ongoing tensions enhance intelligence sharing and address cross-
and Turkish military incursions into SDF-controlled areas. border movements of armed groups between
While the SDF has occasionally cooperated with Syrian government Iraq and Syria.
forces, their push for regional autonomy causes friction with the Assad While the SDF has occasionally cooperated with
regime, which seeks to reassert control over all Syrian territory. Syrian government forces, there is ongoing
friction over the SDF’s push for regional
autonomy and the Assad regime’s intent to
reassert control over all of Syria.
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Syria Actors—December 2024
People’s Protection Units (YPG)
Officially established in 2011 at the start of the Syrian Civil War as a self-defense
unit, the YPG emerged in response to the anti-Kurdish policies of the Syrian regime.
Its primary operations have been to defend the northern region of Rojava and repel
ISIS.
With an estimated 10,000–20,000 fighters, predominantly of Kurdish background
(but open to anyone), the YPG is a capable and organized unit with solid experience,
having fought fiercely against ISIS.
Tactically, the YPG focuses on guerrilla warfare and stealth, working closely with the
renowned female units of the YPJ (Women’s Protection Units).
Notable YPG Operations
2014–2015: The Battle of Kobani, With U.S. air support, the YPG fought to liberate
Kobani from ISIS forces.
2016–2017, The Liberation of Raqqa - As part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),
The YPJ, Women's Protection units
the YPG played a significant role in liberating Raqqa, ISIS’s de facto “capital.”
has become a symbol of women's
2018, Operation olive branch - The YPG faced a military offensive from Turkey, empowerment in the Middle East.
which aimed to capture Afrin.
Their involvement in combat has
Even after ISIS suffered major territorial defeats, the YPG has continued operations inspired other groups to form all-
to secure previously held areas and combat remnants of the group. Over the past female units and has highlighted
two years, they have also engaged in continued fighting with Turkey. issues of gender equality and
Late 2023 - Turkey-backed Syrian forces launched a major offensive against YPG women's rights in Kurdish regions and
positions in northern Syria, capturing approximately 80% of the Manbij area. This beyond.
operation aimed to reclaim territories under Kurdish control.
In October 2024, following a terrorist attack on a defense company near Ankara that
resulted in five deaths, Turkey conducted airstrikes targeting Kurdish groups in
northern Iraq and Syria, including the YPG. Turkey considers the YPG a terrorist
Currently, the YPG is engaged in
organization due to its ties with the PKK.
fierce fighting in Tokhar, Acun Dadat,
Over the past week, in a reshuffling of territorial control in northern Syria, the YPG Arab Hassan, and Al-Atma.
has moved to fill security gaps left by the Syrian regime's retreat, consolidating their
On December 8, the YPG issued the
presence with advances into Aleppo, as well as the towns of Deir Hafir, Tal Arn, and
following statement:
Maskanah.
“Our support remains unwavering in
The YPG appears focused on establishing a contiguous Kurdish-controlled zone in its commitment to defend Manbij.
northern Syria, leading to intense clashes with the Syrian National Army (SNA). We are confident that our brave
Reports have also emerged of surprising, though unconfirmed, incidents of the YPG fighters, together with the
unwavering support of the people of
receiving air support from the Syrian Air Force during engagements in Bab—a
Manbij, will ultimately counter this
possible tactical alliance.
latest threat.”
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Syria Actors—December 2024
The Syrian National Army (SNA)
The SNA are a coalition of opposition groups, with its roots coming from the Free
Syrian Army (FSA) which was formed by former Syrian Military officers at odds with
Assad.
After some challenges and in-fighting the FSA became weakened, by 2016 with Turkish
assistance the SNA was born as a new coalition of opposition soldiers, ready to defend
the Northern region against Syrian Regime forces and ISIS, in recent years they act like
a mercenary wing of the Turkish military and have even been deployed outside of Syria
for the good of Turkish causes, the SNA have also seen varying degrees of support 2011 - Formation of the Free Syrian
from Gulf states and Western countries during earlier phases of the Syrian conflict Army (FSA) by defected Syrian
2019 saw a merger with the National Front for Liberation (NLF) which consolidated military officers.
some 40 factions into a more cohesive military structure. 2016 - Turkey launches Operation
In terms of size, the SNA is estimated to have somewhere around 60,000 fighters, Euphrates Shield, supporting FSA
mainly consisting of Arabs and Turkmen but also some minority Kurdish factions against ISIS and Kurdish
representation, armed via Turkey they are well equipped with both small -arms and forces.
heavy weaponry including anti-air and anti-armour capability. 2017 - The Syrian National Army is
The SNA is divided into several legions and numerous factions. Each faction retains a established under Turkish
degree of autonomy but operates under a unified command structure for coordinated sponsorship.
military efforts 2018 - Turkey initiates Operation
the SNA continues to engage in military operations against Assad's forces while also Olive Branch against the Kurdish
contending with internal divisions among its factions. Reports indicate ongoing clashes People's Protection Units, the SNA
with rival groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) over territorial control in Idlib captures Afrin city after a series of
battles.
The past week has seen the SNA act as part of operation Dawn of Freedom targeting
the strategically vital town of Tal Rifaat, currently held by the Kurdish-led Syrian 2019 - Operation Peace Spring
Democratic Forces. alongside Turkish forces, targeting
the SDF, capturing key towns like
The SNA aims to sever Kurdish supply routes to Aleppo while consolidating control Tal Abyad, the SNA incorporates
southward. This offensive has reportedly secured gains in Aleppo and portions of the National Front for Liberation
Hama, reflecting alignment with Turkish military aims. expanding its command structure.
Thus far he campaign shows the SNA’s strategic intent to expand its territorial 2020 - Skirmishes with both the
footprint while exploiting the Syrian government’s weakening defensive positions.
Assad regime and rival factions.
2021 - Involvement in Turkish
military operations and clashes
with Kurdish forces.
2022 - Engages in local conflicts
while facing internal divisions and
challenges from rival groups.
2024 -Ongoing operations against
both Assad's forces and Kurdish
groups, with strategic shifts
influenced by Turkey's military
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Syria Actors—December 2024
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a prominent Sunni Islamist militant group in
Syria, emerging from the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra. Founded in
2012, Jabhat al-Nusra rebranded as HTS in 2017 after merging with several
other factions, aiming to present a more unified front against the Assad
regime. Leader of HTS : Abu Muhammed al Jolani
Led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the group has attempted to distance itself
from its al-Qaeda roots, focusing on establishing governance within Syria. Al
-Julani has stated the aims of building a future state based on governance
and institutions.
"No one has the right to erase another group" indicating that he may be
somewhat more inclusive towards Syria's religious and ethnic minorities.
HTS has evolved into a well-organized military force, reportedly maintaining
up to 30,000 fighters with specialised units, including tanks, infantry,
drones, and snipers, and has established a weapons manufacturing industry
in Idlib.
HTS formed with a merger of several factions
In late November, HTS started their offensive against the Assad regime,
capturing key cities such as Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and the capital,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham
Damascus. This offensive now effectively ending President Bashar al-Assad's
regime, with Assad fleeing to Russia. Ahrar al-Sham
The rapid advance of HTS has raised concerns about the potential for Syria Ansar al-Din Front
to become a haven for terrorist activities, drawing parallels to the rise of
Jaysh al-Sunna
the Islamic State or Afghanistan under the Taliban.
Liwa al-Haqq
Whilst HTS remains designated as a terrorist organisation by several
countries, including the United Kingdom, the UK government is Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement
reconsidering this designation. Senior minister Pat McFadden indicated that
the decision would depend on HTS's future behaviour.
The group has attempted to portray a more pragmatic image to gain
support, though scepticism about its jihadist roots persists and in summary
concerns about its ideological commitments and governance practices
remain.
"It would be rather ridiculous if Britain was unable to engage with HTS. Abu
Mohammed al-Jolani, its leader, has made great efforts over the last ten
years to distance himself from al-Qaeda and other terror groups." - Former
MI6 Chief Sir John Sawers
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