Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

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Energy Strategy Reviews

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/esr

Scenario analysis of carbon emission trajectory on energy system transition

model: A case study of Sichuan Province
Weiqi Li a, b, c, Fan Zhang c, e, Lingying Pan d, *, Zheng Li a
a
Department of Energy and Power Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
b
TIANFU YONGXING LABORATORY, NO. 619 Jicui Street, Tianfu New Area, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610000, China
c
Energy Strategy and Low-carbon Development Research Center, Sichuan Energy Internet Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Building No.1-4, District B, Tianfu
Science City, Tianfu New Area, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610200, China
d
Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200093, China
e
Key Laboratory of Thermo-Fluid Science and Engineering of MOE, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Energy transition targets and pathway planning are more important since the declare of carbon peak and carbon
Energy system transition model neutrality in China. Energy transition is highly relevant with economic and social development, as well as in­
Energy demand and supply dustrial transformation and technological innovation. However, existing studies have rarely conducted energy
Carbon peak and carbon neutrality
transition and CO2 emissions analysis from the macro targets of economic development and climate change as
Scenario analysis
well as micro pathway of different sectors. In this study, we propose an energy transition framework to present
an energy transition mechanism driven by various impact factors. First, a sectional energy consumption module
is presented to analyse energy consumption transition linking economic development, technology progress, and
low-carbon policy effect. Then, the energy conversion and supply module is proposed, tracing back energy flows
from demand to supply to provide an overview of the energy transition. Subsequently, empirical scenario
analysis of Sichuan Province is conducted, followed by whole perspective and targets of energy transition as well
as CO2 emission mitigation trajectory. The results indicate that: (1) Sichuan’s Carbon peak and carbon neutrality
will be achieved in 2028 and 2058 under the Energy Transition Scenario; (2) Clean electrification transition
would result in an insufficient renewable power supply for outer-region demand from 2030 to 2050, and Sichuan
Province would not be able to meet its carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals if natural gas is added to generate
more electricity to ensure the export volume; (3) Energy efficiency improvement, energy mix optimization and
the increase of penetration of renewable power can reduce CO2 emission by 13.3 Mt, 87.8 Mt, and 5.4 Mt in 2050
in Energy Transition Scenario. The model extends the modelling methodology of energy-economy-environment
system and provides an effective scenario analysis and path selection tool, which can provide a scientific and
quantitative reference basis for policy makers in the context of energy regulation and energy network governance
and can be applied to the study of energy transition paths in other regions.

structure, optimization of industrial structure, energy conservation and

efficiency, increase of carbon sink and low-carbon life, etc. [3–7]. The
1. Introduction
ultimate goal is to promote economic prosperity and sustainable
development [8]. As a developing country, China is still in the stage of
As people pay more and more attention to climate change, many
rapid urbanisation, motorization and industrialization, and will still
developed countries have announced timeline for carbon peak and
consume more energy in the future development process. Hence,
carbon neutrality in response to climate change. For instance, the UK
China’s emission reduction path formulation not only confronts the
Climate Change Act 2008 [1] and the Japanese Plan for Global Warming
challenge of energy replacement of existing stock, but also faces the
Countermeasures [2] have clarified the goal of achieving carbon
problem of energy consumption increment caused by development re­
neutrality by 2050 proposed by the government in the form of legisla­
quirements [9,10]. China needs to reach a peak phase before it can move
tion. The main measures of carbon emission mitigation include the
to net zero emissions. In September 2020, China declared that it would
development of low-carbon energy, adjustment of energy consumption

* Corresponding author
E-mail address: [email protected] (L. Pan).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2022.101015
Received 29 July 2022; Received in revised form 5 November 2022; Accepted 24 November 2022
Available online 6 December 2022
2211-467X/© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
W. Li et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

Abbreviations Im Import
IS Industrial Structure
AAM Average Annual Mileage LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
BAU Business as Usual LP Local Production
BS Building Sector N Number
CE Carbon Emission NG Natural Gas
CT Commercial Transportation O Oxidation Ratio
DCE Direct Carbon Emissions OI Opening Inventory
EC Energy Consumption P Population
EF Carbon Emission Factor PEU Power End-Use
EI Energy Intensity PGE Power Generation Efficiency
EM Energy Mix PGM Power Generation Mix
ET Energy Transition PS Production Sector
ETAM Energy Transition Analysis Model PV Private Vehicle
EEU Energy End-Use R Change Rate
Ex Export RA Residential Area
FEC Fossil Energy Consumption REP Renewable Energy Production
FES Fossil Energy Supply RES Renewable Energy Supply
FS Floor Space TS Transportation Sector
HE Heat Generation Efficiency TT Traffic Turnover
HEU Heat End-Use U Urbanisation
HGM Heat Generation Mix VP Vehicle Population
ICE Indirect Carbon Emissions

strive to carbon peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. 91.52%, 90.48%, and 58.17% in 2050, respectively [28]. However, Suo
Energy-related CO2 emission is the main source of China’s carbon et al. predicted that due to the limitation of renewable energy resources,
emissions [11]. According to Carbon Emission Accounts & Datasets [12, fossil fuels will still account for 61.09% of the total energy supply even
13], in 2019, China’s energy consumption was 4.9 gigaton of standard in 2050 corresponding to the increasing demand for energy due to the
coal equivalent (Gtce), with fossil energy consumption contributing to rapid economic development [29]. Considering the life cycle analysis,
92.2% of the total energy consumption. It resulted in energy-related the CO2 emissions implied by imported or exported electricity will also
carbon dioxide emissions as high as 9.8 Gt, accounting for 85% of affect regional CO2 emissions [30], that is, the indirect CO2 emission
China’s total CO2 emissions. In this regard, it is the main measure to implied by electricity and heat consumption [31], especially in the case
achieve total CO2 emission reduction by energy system transformation. of large-scale power transmission across regions [32]. Therefore, to
Energy system transformation aims to transform the energy system achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, increasing
based on high carbon content fossil energy such as coal and oil into low electrification level on the energy consumption stage and increasing the
carbon energy involving electricity and hydrogen generated by renew­ proportion of renewable energy on the energy supply stage are impor­
able energy [14,15]. tant directions of CO2 reduction. An earlier peak gives China more time
According to the current regional carbon emission accounting to arrange for the orderly phasing out of coal-fired power and the steady
method of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s deployment of renewable energy. While there may be greater transition
Republic of China, carbon emissions not only come from the burning of pressure in the near term [33]. At present, an important issue facing
fossil fuels but also from purchased electricity. Consequently, energy- many regions in China is how to guarantee sufficient renewable energy
related CO2 emissions should be considered from both a consumption to ensure energy supply while ensuring the improvement of electrifi­
perspective as well as electricity production. In terms of energy con­ cation level. This not only affects the energy security for regional eco­
sumption, the transformation of energy consumption structure involves nomic development, but also influences the trend of CO2 emissions.
coal to electricity, oil to electricity, etc [16,17]. From 1996 to 2016, the Most of the recently applied models take energy, environment and
contribution of energy consumption structure to inhibiting CO2 emis­ economy into consideration when discussing energy transition pathways
sions is slight [18], but China could realise large amount of carbon and provide valuable insights to the strategies in achieving carbon peak
emission reduction by accelerating electrification and maximizing the and carbon neutrality targets [33–44]. However, there are still some
use of renewable energy technologies [19]. However, the trans­ drawbacks of traditional energy transition models: 1) some traditional
formation of energy consumption structure may face the pressure of energy transition models [34,35] focus on the isolated stages of energy
marginal abatement cost and welfare loss in the short term [20]. In consumption or supply, and cannot simultaneously evaluate the carbon
addition, energy conversion technological progress has an inverted emission reduction effect by involving energy consumption, energy
U-shaped relationship with CO2 emissions [21]. In terms of energy supply, energy conversion and energy transfer. 2) Some models focus on
supply, a significant increase in the proportion of renewable energy in the linkage of energy transition and economic development while the
the power supply sector is an important process to achieve carbon bottom-up technologies are roughly categorized [36,37]. 3) some
neutrality [22]. In response, through incentive policies and technology models focused on the specific subsectors or technologies rather than
push [23–25], China’s renewable energy power generation industry, analysing the entire system transitions [38–40]. 4) Some other studies
such as photovoltaic [26], has achieved unprecedented development. [41,42] put forward a framework for socio-technological energy tran­
Sichuan province, with unique advantages in hydropower, wind power sition to cover both energy supply and demand, while they mostly
and other clean energy resources, has attracted more attention [27]. Luo focused on the energy system transformation framework and did not
et al. found that by setting three energy supply routes of electricity, conduct linkage analysis on the carbon emission trajectory [48,49].
biomass and natural gas, Sichuan Province can reduce CO2 emissions by Therefore, it is necessary to provide a methodology for regions to

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W. Li et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

present comprehensive energy transition target and pathway achieving

economic development goals as well as meeting CO2 emission mitigating
constraints.
In summary, existing studies have rarely conducted energy transition
and CO2 emissions analysis from the macro targets of economic devel­
opment and climate change as well as micro pathway of different sec­
tors. This study aims to propose an energy transition approach combined
the methods of top-down and bottom-up to present an energy transition
mechanism driven by various impact factors and posed energy flows
transition tracing back from demand to supply which could explore
regional carbon reduction pathways. With energy consumption module,
the model adopted in this study links energy transition with regional
economic and social development. With energy conversion and supply
module, the model enables energy supply-demand balance with
consideration of technological improvement and sectoral trans­
formation. With carbon emission module, the model evaluates the direct
and indirect carbon emission in energy transition pathways. In this way,
this study makes up for the drawbacks of existing research from the
Fig. 1. Framework of energy system transition.
aspects of macro-micro combination and energy supply-demand balance
and provides valuable insights for regional energy transition pathway
design and analysis. technology innovations and energy efficiency not only impact energy
The contribution of our work lies in two aspects. From the theoretical consumption mix and quantity but also energy conversation and even
aspect, the energy transition model we present extends the modelling energy exploitation and production. In addition, the share of renewable
methodology of energy-economy-environment system model, and re­ power will significantly influence carbon emissions which depends on
alizes the unification of top-down macro model and bottom-up tech­ electricity supply mix. The transition in the sub-systems of energy sup­
nology model in the level of energy supply and demand balance. In ply, energy conversion, end-use, and development plans for energy and
terms of application, the model in this paper provides an effective sce­ the economy will reshape the energy flows and structure. Finally, the
nario analysis and path selection tool, which can provide a scientific and energy transition analysis model is solved using the ‘LINPROG’ equation
quantitative reference basis for policy makers in the context of energy solver in Matlab.
regulation and energy network governance and can be applied to the The main influencing factors of an energy system are further
study of energy transition paths in other regions. explained as follows:

2. Methodology (1) Energy exploitation and production: Energy exploitation and

production refers to the potential of coal, oil, gas, wind, solar and
2.1. Modelling framework hydro resources available for exploitation in the region. In
addition to ensuring the security of energy supply, increasing
In this paper, the authors conduct a systematic analysis of the energy renewable energy power will also have an important impact on
transition (ET) under the target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. the total carbon emissions of the region.
Different from bottom-up methods that categorise the final energy de­ (2) Energy transmission and distribution: energy transmission and
mand into specific sectors, the method this paper adopts combined the distribution refers to the capacity of roads and railways to
bottom-up method and top-down method that focuses on systematic distribute coal, and pipelines and networks to distribute oil, gas
transition in terms of energy consumption, conversion, and supply. The and electricity. The changes in the total consumption and con­
energy consumption in production sector, building sector and trans­ sumption structure of various energy varieties will have an
portation sector is included in the end-use sectors. As for the accounting impact on the infrastructure of energy transmission and
scope of regional carbon emissions, this study adopts the scope 2 of distribution.
carbon emissions, which not only considers the direct carbon dioxide (3) Energy consumption: In the end-use sub-system, energy is
emissions from local energy consumption but also the indirect carbon consumed to provide energy services, such as passenger trans­
dioxide emissions generated by purchased electricity [45]. Therefore, port, cooling comfort, and illumination. The energy demand is
we further analysed the indirect carbon emissions caused by power mostly determined by the industry, building and transportation.
supply under the energy transition of terminal consumption. In this study, we referred to the indicator selection in World
Energy Outlook 2020 released by International Energy Agency.
2.1.1. Energy system transition analysis The impact factors of energy consumption are mainly divided
Energy transition involves the energy supply, consumption and into three categories: (a) energy consumption of the production
conversion stages and relates to coal, oil, gas, and renewable energies. department, which mainly depends on GDP, economic structure,
Under the premise of guaranteeing economic development and in­ energy intensity, and energy mix; (b) building energy consump­
dividuals’ living needs, energy transition includes energy efficiency tion, which mainly depends on population, urbanisation rate, per
improvements, low-carbon energy mix adjustment and renewable capita household energy consumption, public per capita resi­
power penetration rate. Energy transition analysis model (ETAM) is dential area, energy consumption per unit area, and energy mix;
analysed through several internal influencing factors contributing to the (c) energy consumption of the commercial transportation, which
change of energy and external factors (Fig. 1). The internal factors refer mainly depends on traffic turnover and energy mix; and energy
to the energy exploitation and production, energy consumption, energy consumption of the non-commercial transportation, which
conversion, and energy transmission and distribution. The external mainly depends on vehicle population, average annual mileage,
factors refers to economic development plan and the target of carbon the number of private vehicles per thousand, population, and
peak and carbon neutrality which will affect the four internal factors. energy mix.
The four internal factors interact with each other and the whole energy
flows. In the process of energy transition, energy substitution policy,

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W. Li et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

(4) Energy conversion: Advanced energy conversion technologies where i, j, t, t0 are sub-sector, energy type, time, base year, respectively;
effect energy conversion efficiency, and the efficiency further
ECPS
i,j,t is amount of energy j consumed by sub-sector i of the production
effects the accounting of total primary energy supply.
sector in year t, in Mtce; EMi,j,t is proportion of energy j in the end-use
(5) The economic development plans and carbon constraints for the
energy system transition: the target of economic and human liv­ energy of sub-sector i in year t, reflecting the mix of energy consump­
ings development and carbon peak and carbon neutrality will tion in sub-sector i; EEUi,t is sum consumption of the energy end-use of
impact energy transition including energy intensity, energy mix, sub-sector i in year t, in Mtce; ΔECi,j,t is consumption change (increase or
energy efficiency, non-fossil electrification level and energy decrease) for energy j through the substitution of other types of energy
technologies in various sectors. Other impact factors are indi­ for sub-sector i in year t, in Mtce; GDPt0 is GDP of the base year, in CNY;
rectly effected by GDP, economic structure, population, and ur­ ISi,t is proportion of the added value of sub-sector i in the GDP of the
banisation rate. whole society in year t, reflecting the industrial structure; EIi,t0 is energy
intensity of sub-sector i in the base year, in Mtce⋅CNY− 1; RGDP t is GDP
2.1.2. Energy consumption transition analysis change rate in year t; REIi,t is energy intensity change rate of sub-sector i in
In this manuscript, the energy system transition analysis starts with year t.
the transition of energy consumption and is followed by the analysis of Next, we calculate the total end-use energy of the sub-sector of the
its influence on energy conversion and energy supply. For energy end- production sector by using Eq. (2).
use consumption, three energy consumption sectors are distinguished ∑
in this model: production sector, building sector and transportation
PS
ECi,t = PS
ECi,j,t (2)
sector. Several types of energy could be used to fulfil the energy con­
j

sumption. Coal to gas or electricity, and oil to electricity, in different

sectors are mainly adopted to realise energy consumption transition (2) Energy consumption module of the building sector
with the purpose of reducing CO2 emission, decreasing energy intensity,
improving technologies, and finally changing the amount and structure The building sector in this study includes sub-sectors: urban build­
of energy end-use consumption. ing, rural building and public building. Energy consumption in the
building is calculated with Eq. (3).
2.2. Mathematical formulation BS
ECi,j,t = EMi,j,t × EEUi,t + ΔECi,j,t
∏t ( ) ∏
t ( ) (3)
The energy transition analysis model is solved using the ‘LINPROG’ = EMi,j,t × FSi,t0 × 1 + RFS × EIi,t0 × 1 + REI
i,t + ΔECi,j,t
equation solver in Matlab. On the basis of the framework in Fig. 1, we
i,t
k=t0 +1 k=t0 +1
propose a quantitative analysis model to discuss the energy system
transition including energy consumption, energy conversion and energy where ECBS
i,j,t is amount of energy j consumed by sub-sector i of the
supply model. In the terms of energy types, coal, oil, natural gas, elec­ building sector in year t, in Mtce; FSi,t0 is floor space for sub-sector i in
tricity, and heat are considered according to the items in the energy the base year, in m2; RFS
i,t is floor space change rate of sub-sector i in year
balance table. Coal consumption comprises total coal (e.g. raw coal,
t.
washed coal, cleaned coal) and coking products (e.g. coke, coke oven
The floor space (FSi,t )of each type of building in year t is calculated
gas). Oil products are, for example, crude oil, gasoline, and kerosene.
by Eqs. (4) and (5):
Natural gas consumption comprises natural gas and liquefied natural gas
(LNG). Electricity consumption is calculated based on physical quanti­ FSu,t = P × RUt × RAu,t (4)
ties. The power generation coal consumption method is used for
( )
standardisation. The time period of the study is 2015–2050. FSr,t = P × 1 − RUt × RAr,t (5)
We trace energy flows from consumption to supply to build a model
of the entire energy system. First, the amount of end-use energy (stan­ where FSu,t and FSr,t are the floor space of urban and rural residential
dard quantity) is calculated by sector and energy type; second, the end- building in the year t, respectively; P is the population in the year t; RUt is
use data is converted into the amount of primary energy with the energy the urbanisation rate in the year t; RAu,t and RAr,t are residential area per
conversion efficiencies; finally, primary energy supply is determined by capita in urban and rural areas in the year t, respectively.
local production quantity, imports, exports, and forecasted end-use Next, we calculate the total end-use energy of the building sector by
consumption. using Eq. (6).
∑
2.2.1. Energy consumption module
BS
ECi,t = BS
ECi,j,t (6)
Considering the disparity of the driving mechanism and impact
j

factor, we build an energy consumption model of the production sector,

building sector and transportation sector separately. (3) Energy consumption module of the transportation sector

(1) Energy consumption module of the production sector The transportation sector is composed of commercial transportation
(e.g. passenger transport and freight transport) and non-commercial
The production sector in this study includes sub-sectors: agriculture, transportation (e.g. private vehicle).
industry and construction industry. Energy consumption in the industry Energy consumption in the commercial transportation is calculated
sector is calculated with Eq. (1). with Eq. (7).
PS CT
ECi,j,t = EMi,j,t × EEUi,t + ΔECi,j,t ECi,j,t = EMi,j,t × EEUi,t + ΔECi,j,t
∏ (
t
) ∏t ( ) ∏ (
t ) t (
∏ ) (7)
= EMi,j,t × GDPt0 × 1 + RGDP
t × ISi,t × EIi,t0 × 1 + REI
i,t + ΔECi,j,t = EMi,j,t × TTi,t0 × 1 + RTT
i,t × EIi,t0 × 1 + REI
i,t + ΔECi,j,t
k=t0 +1 k=t0 +1 k=t0 +1 k=t0 +1

(1)

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W. Li et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

where ECCT
i,j,t is amount of energy j consumed by sub-sector i of the
generation mix and heat generation mix, respectively; PGEm,t and HGEm,t
commercial transportation sector in year t, in Mtce; TTi,t0 is traffic are power generation efficiency and heat generation efficiency of fossil
turnover for sub-sector i in the base year, in number of people⋅km; RTT energy m, respectively.
i,t is
traffic turnover change rate of sub-sector i in year t.
2. Renewable energy conversion and balance
Similarly, the energy consumption in the non-commercial trans­
portation (i.e. private vehicle) sector can be calculated with Eq. (8)

PV
ECj,t = EMj,t × EEUt + ΔECj,t
∏
t
( ) ∏t
( ) ∏
t
( ) (8)
VP
= EMj,t × VPt0 × 1 + Rt × AAMt0 × 1 + RAAM
t × EIt0 × 1 + REI
t + ΔECj,t
k=t0 +1 k=t0 +1 k=t0 +1

The renewable energy in this study includes solar, wind, hydropower

where ECPV
j,t is amount of energy j consumed by non-commercial trans­
and other. Supply of renewable energy is calculated with Eq. (14).
portation sector in year t, in Mtce; VPt0 and AAMt0 are vehicle population ∑
(
∏t
)
( )
and average annual mileage for non-commercial transportation sector in RESt = REPn,t0 × 1 + RREP
t (14)
the base year; RVP t and RAAM
t are vehicle population change rate and n k=t0 +1

average annual mileage change rate for non-commercial transportation

where RESt is total supply of renewable energy; REPn,t0 is production of
sector in year t, respectively.
The vehicle population for private vehicles VPt0 is calculated by Eq. renewable energy n in the base year, in Mtce; RREP
t is change rate of
(9): production of renewable energy n in year t.
Consumption for renewable energy is calculated with Eq. (15).
VPt = Pt × Nt (9) ∑
RECt = PEUt + Exelectricity,t − PEUt × PGPm,t (15)
where Pt is the population in the year t; Nt is the number of private m

vehicles per thousand in the year t.

where RECt and Exelectricity,t are total consumption of primary renewable
On the basis of Eqs. (7) and (8), we can calculate the total end-use
energy and net electricity exports in year t, respectively.
energy of the transportation sector by using Eq. (10).
Next, we obtain the total supply and consumption Eq. (16).
∑ ∑
TS
ECi,t = CT
ECi,j,t + PV
ECj,t (10) ∑ ∑
j j
FESm,t + RESt = FECm,t + RECt (16)
m m
On the basis of Eqs. ((1), (3), (7) and (8), we can calculate the total
energy consumption according to the energy type, presented in Eq. (11). 2.2.3. Carbon emission module
∑ ∑ ∑ As mentioned above, carbon emissions in the region include direct
ECj,t = PS
ECi,j,t + BS
ECi,j,t + CT
ECi,j,t PV
+ ECj,t (11) carbon emissions and indirect carbon emissions, which can be calcu­
i i i
lated according to Eqs. (17) and (18) respectively.
2.2.2. Energy conversion and supply module DCEj,t = ECj,t ⋅EFj ⋅Oj (17)
In this section, the balance of energy consumption, conversion,
supply, import, and export of fossil energy and renewable energy is ICEt = ΔQt ⋅EFelectricity,t (18)
modelled separately because of differences in their conversion process
and calculating method. where DCEj,t is the direct carbon emissions from energy j consumed in
year t, in Mt; EFj is the carbon emission factor of the energy type j; Oj is
1. Fossil energy conversion and balance the oxidation ratio of the energy type j; ICEt is the indirect carbon di­
oxide emissions generated by purchased electricity in year t, in Mt; ΔQt
Primary fossil energy consists of coal, oil and natural gas. Supply of is the amount of electricity traded in year t, in MW; EFelectricity,t is the
primary fossil energy is calculated with Eq. (12). carbon emission factor of the electricity mix.
Carbon emission factors of different types of fossil fuels are referred
FESm,t = LPm,t + Imm,t + OIm,t (12)
to Ref. [46], under which the carbon emission factors of coal, oil, gas are
2.66 tCO2/tce, 1.73 tCO2/tce, and 1.56 tCO2/tce respectively.
where FESm,t LPm,t , Imm,t and OIm,t are total supply, local production,
On the basis of Eqs. (17) and (18), we can calculate the total carbon
import and opening inventory of primary fossil energy m in year t,
emissions in the region, presented in Eq. (19).
respectively, in Mtce.
∑
Consumption for primary fossil energy m is calculated with Eq. (13). CEt = DCEj,t + ICEt (19)
j
PEUt × PGMm,t HEUt × HGMm,t
FECm,t = EEUm,t + + + Exm,t (13)
PGEm,t HGEm,t The energy.

where FECm,t , EEUm,t and Exm,t are total fossil energy consumption,
quantity of end-use energy and export of fossil energy m in year t, 2.3. Scenario setting for the case study of Sichuan province
respectively, in Mtce; PEUt and HEUt are total end-use power and total
end-use heat, respectively, in Mtce; PGMm,t and HGMm,t are proportion On the basis of the built ETAM, a case study of energy transition in
of power generated by fossil energy m in total end-use power and heat Sichuan Province is developed. In this study, ETs of 2030 and 2050 are
generated by fossil energy m in total end-use heat, reflecting the power planned while considering the historical development trend and future
development assumptions. Next, we introduce the current energy status,

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W. Li et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

trends, and problems of Sichuan and then the model parameters and progress, energy substitution and electrification in end use. Most of the
scenario setting. We take the economic development target (GDP), literature has focused on the development of a specific energy type in
population, urbanisation rate, industrial structure, housing area per Sichuan Province, for example, as renewable energy, rural energy, and
capita, car ownership per thousand people, and passenger and freight natural gas [47–52]. Therefore, to present the energy pathway under the
turnover as common parameters. The energy intensity of agriculture, target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, this manuscript analyses
industry and construction, the energy consumption per building area of the entire energy system in Sichuan Province use the energy transition
various types of buildings, the fuel consumption rate per vehicle turn­ analysis model including energy supply, energy conversion and energy
over or mileage, and the energy mix of each energy end-use sector were consumption in terms of production sector building sector and trans­
considered to be set in different scenarios. portation sector by employing the scenario analysis.

2.3.1. Current energy status and trends 2.3.2. Model parameters

Sichuan Province is a distinct region in China from the energy and Five types of data are introduced according to the ETAM: population,
economic perspectives. The annual GDP growth rate of Sichuan Prov­ urbanisation, economic development and economic structure, and en­
ince was 7.2% in 2015–2020, higher than that of China (5.8%; China- ergy resource.
National-Bureau-of-Statistics, 2021). Sichuan is also authorised by the
National Energy Administration as a national clean energy demonstra­ (1) Population
tion province. Sichuan has the advantage of its abundant resources of
hydropower and natural gas. In 2020, with 5.9% of the population and Population is an important factor that effects energy consumption
5.1% of the land in China (China-National-Bureau-of-Statistics, 2021), growth. From 2010 to 2020, the permanent resident population of
Sichuan Province occupied both 24% of the recoverable natural gas Sichuan Province increased from 80.42 million to 83.71 million. Thus,
reserve (17.8 trillion m3) and technical recoverable hydropower ca­ the average population growth rate of Sichuan Province was lower
pacity (145 GW) in China (Sichuan-Government, 2017). In 2019, total (0.3%) than that of China from 2010 to 2020 (0.5%). The main reason
energy consumption was 207.9 Mtce, calculated by using the methods of for this difference is that Sichuan Province is a typical labour export
equal electricity value (Sichuan-Provincial-Bureau-of-Statistics, 2020). province of China. Most commonly, these migrants prefer to move to
The province provides local energy consumption mainly supported developed regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong because of
by hydropower and plays an important role in the national energy se­ their well-built infrastructure (public transportation, education, and
curity strategy. Hydropower accounted for 81.3% of the total power medical services) and high-income job opportunities. Notably, the
generation capacity of Sichuan Province, and its natural gas production population growth rate of China increased to 0.79% in 2015 because the
reached 35.6 billion cubic metres, accounting for 24% of Chinese total central government implemented its nationwide Two-Child Policy. The
production in 2017. Approximately 57% of the generated electricity and average annual growth rate of the population in Sichuan Province
56% of the produced natural gas in Sichuan Province were exported to increased to 0.6% from 2015 to 2020 along with economic development
China’s eastern regions (China-National-Bureau-of-Statistics, 2018). (China-National-Bureau-of-Statistics, 2021). Therefore, the expected
However, Sichuan is still facing several energy-related problems. The average annual growth rate of the population is 0.7% from 2020 to
energy intensity was 0.49 tce/104 yuan higher than the national average 2025. Thus, the average annual population growth rate has decreased by
(0.41 tce/104 yuan) in 2018, indicating low energy utilisation efficiency 0.1% every five years. The permanent resident population in Sichuan
in the current period. A large share of the high-carbon energy supply, Province is expected to be 90.19 million and 94.10 million in 2030 and
including coal and oil, is imported from other regions, and over 50% of 2050, respectively.
the provincial low-carbon energy, including natural gas and hydro­
power, is exported to other regions. Fig. 2 illustrates the energy sup­ (2) Urbanisation
ply–demand gap of Sichuan Province in 2015. The bars in Fig. 2
represent the ratio of energy supply–demand gap. From 2011 to 2019, the share of urban population of Sichuan
As stated, the distinguishing feature of energy supply–demand sys­ Province increased from 41.8% to 53.8% (Sichuan-Provincial-Bureau-
tem of Sichuan Province is that a large part of fossil energy with high of-Statistics, 2020). Compared with urban areas, the residential energy
carbon emission factor is imported while 57% of electricity mainly zero- consumption per capita of rural areas increased significantly and tran­
carbon hydropower and 56% of natural gas is exported. To achieve the scended the former (Table 1). By 2020, the urbanisation rates of
target of carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, it developed regions in China reached 70% in, for example, Guangdong,
is urgent to take the energy system transition in terms of technological Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, and 80% in Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin
(China-National-Bureau-of-Statistics, 2021). Considering the rapid
progress of urbanisation, in 2030 and 2050, we project that the urban­
isation rate of Sichuan will be 68% (e.g. Guangdong, Zhejiang, and
Jiangsu in 2017) and 80% (e.g. Beijing in 2017), respectively, reaching
the current level of developed regions in China.

(3)Economic development

The increase of GDP is the main influencing factor of energy con­

sumption growth in Sichuan Province. From 2011 to 2020, Sichuan

Table 1
Residential energy consumption per capita (toe/person) of Sichuan Province
[53,54].
Area 2010 2015

Urban area 0.1837 0.1931

Rural area 0.0942 0.3852
Fig. 2. Energy supply–demand gap of Sichuan Province, 2015.

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W. Li et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

(5) Energy resources

According to the present plans of exploitation and the resource re­

serves [55–58], the energy resource availability of fossil energy and
renewable power is presented in Table 2. Average annual running hours
of Hydropower，Coal-fired power, Natural gas-fired power, Photovol­
taic power and Wind power is 4500, 4500, 4500, 1300, and 2000 h.
The maximum production capacity of coal was 47.6 Mtce from 2015
to 2050 in this study [55,57], which means that if the coal demand is
greater than the maximum mining amount, we can only rely on imports
to meet the demand; if the demand is insufficient to the maximum
mining amount, mining can be carried out according to the demand.
Crude oil production declined from 0.20 Mtoe in 2010 to 0.1 Mtoe in
2018 in Sichuan Province (Sichuan statistical yearbook, 2019). Crude oil
imports were maintained at 3 Mtoe before 2014; the petroleum product
demand was approximately 15 Mtoe. To satisfy local demands, the
Fig. 3. GDP and GDP growth rate of Sichuan Province and China’s
average (2011–2020). government of Sichuan Province approved the construction of a refinery
with a capacity of 10 Mt/year (Sichuan-Government, 2011). The re­
finery began operating in 2014, significantly increasing the crude oil
Province’s GDP increased from 1805.2 billion yuan to 4859.9 billion
imports of Sichuan Province.
yuan (Fig. 3). With an average annual growth rate of 8.8%, Sichuan
The total recoverable natural gas in Sichuan Province is 17.8 trillion
Province has simultaneously undergone rapid industrialization, urban­
cubic metres [58], accounting for 24% of the reserve of China and
isation, and motorization. Fixed-asset investment, which consumes a
ranking first in China (Ministry of Land and Resource of PRC, 2017).
tremendous amount of high-energy-intensity building materials such as
These recoverable natural gas resources include 8.8 trillion cubic metres
steels and cement, is the main driver of the rapid growth in GDP in the
of conventional natural gas, 2.4 trillion cubic metres of tight gas, and
province. Because China is entering the ‘New Normal’ period and the
10.0 trillion cubic metres of shale gas. However, the proven shale gas
impact of COVID-19, the high-speed development of the economy of
resource contributes less than 1% to the total recoverable shale gas
Sichuan Province will not be maintained.
resource [58]. With technology development, the proven rate of natural
In 2020, per capita GDP of Sichuan Province was 58,126 yuan, which
gas resources is expected to increase to 34% in 2020. The natural gas
was much lower than the national average level (72,000 yuan). We
production is expected to increase from 24.9 Mtoe in 2015 to 41.0 Mtoe
expect Sichuan Province to accelerate its economic development to
in 2020, including 9.1 Mtoe of shale gas.
catch up with the national level; thus, in the future, its GDP growth rate
According to the 14th Five-Year Energy development plan of
should be much higher than the national average. Based on the
Sichuan, the comprehensive energy production capacity will be about
consultation of the Sichuan Provincial Government, the per capita GDP
257 million tons of standard coal in 2025. The total installed power
of Sichuan Province in 2030 is expected to reach the level of Chongqing
capacity of the province is about 150 million kW, of which the installed
in 2019 (76,000 yuan), and this target requires a GDP growth rate of
hydropower capacity is about 105 million kW, the installed thermal
6.5% from 2015 to 2030. Additionally, the per capita GDP of Sichuan
power capacity is about 23 million kW (including coal power, gas power,
Province in 2050 is expected to reach the level of Jiangsu in 2019
biomass power, etc.), the installed wind power capacity is 10 million
(120,000 yuan), and this target requires a GDP growth rate of 4.9% from
kW, and the installed photovoltaic power capacity is 12 million kW.
2030 to 2050.
Natural gas production capacity increased steadily. Clean energy in­
stallations accounted for about 88%. The proportion of non-fossil energy
(4) Economic structure
consumption is around 42%, and that of natural gas is around 19%.
During the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020), the government of
2.3.3. Scenarios setting
Sichuan Province optimized the economic structure by enhancing the
Scenario analysis of energy transition is conducted to analyse the
proportion of tertiary industry, particularly the financial services and
uncertainty of influencing factors’ contributions, such as technological
real estate industries [55]. The energy intensity of tertiary industry is
progress, energy substitution policy and renewable power penetration,
lower than that of industry and construction industry. Hence, the
because over decades, these factors will substantially change. Two sce­
increasing proportion of tertiary industry decreased the energy con­
narios of energy system development, including business as usual (BAU)
sumption. From 2011 to 2019, the shares of the primary and industry
and ET, are designed. The economic and social development parameters
and construction industry of Sichuan Province decreased from 14% to
of the BAU scenario and ET scenario are consistent. The relevant data
50%–10.3% and 37.3%, respectively, and the share of tertiary industry
from 2015 to 2020 in the BAU scenario mainly refer to the statistical
increased from 35% to 52.4%. Therefore, according to the current
yearbook of China or provinces and cities. The data after 2020, such as
change rates and long-term development plan of Sichuan Province
the energy mix of subsectors’ end use, thermal power efficiency, heating
(Sichuan-Provincial-Bureau-of-Statistics; The 14th Five-Year Plan of
proportion, and efficiency, will remain unchanged based on the 2015
Sichuan Province and the outline of the Long-range Goals for 2035), the
data. Compared with the BAU scenario, the ET scenario first considers
shares of the secondary and tertiary industry of Sichuan will be 32% and
the technological progress more progressively to decrease energy in­
61% in 2030 and 28% and 69% in 2050, respectively.
tensity in production sector and energy efficiency in building sector and

Table 2
Energy resource availability of Sichuan Province in 2050.
Energy Coal (million ton of standard Oil (million ton of standard oil Natural gas (billion Hydropower (billion Wind (million Photovoltaic (million
coal equivalent) equivalent) cubic metres) kW) kW) kW)

Energy 47.6 0.2 100 140 50 150

resource

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W. Li et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

transportation sector. Next, energy mix transition in production sector, (3) Energy efficiency
building sector and transportation sector is conducted through energy
substitution. Lastly, since the renewable power penetration rate will The relevant data results of the energy efficiency of building sector
significantly impact CO2 mitigation, we further considered different and transportation sector in Sichuan Province are shown in Table A7 and
renewable power penetration rate. The scenario setting is as follows. Table A8, respectively (see Appendix A).

(1) Energy intensity (4) Renewable penetration rate

There are two ways to reduce the end-use energy intensity while In the power sector, coal power generation will gradually decrease
maintaining high-speed economic development. One way is to shut while renewable power and gas power will increase. In the BAU sce­
down the low-efficient factories and implement stricter standards of nario, we set a conservative rate of decline of coal power proportion in
energy consumption for a unit facility, to reduce the actual energy thermal power generation; in the ET scenario, we set a more aggressive
consumption. The other way is to replace the traditional manufacturing rate of decline (Table 3). Based on the resource volume data of Sichuan
industry with high-value-added industries, to accelerate economic Province, we set different renewable energy penetration rates for the
development. In the BAU scenario, according to the current situation, two scenarios. In the BAU scenario, the penetration rate of renewable
we set a more conservative rate of decline in energy intensity. According energy in 2050 is 93.2%, and in the ET scenario is 95.8%.
to the recently released targets of China’s carbon peak in 2030, the
energy intensity should be decreased with an annual decreasing rate of 3. Results and discussion
3% at least. In this paper, agriculture is referred to as primary industry;
Industry and construction are referred to as secondary industry; Building 3.1. Scenario analysis results comparison
and transportation are referred to as tertiary industry. Based on the
consultation of the Sichuan Provincial Government, we assume that the With the data input and scenarios’ setting, the planning pathways of
decreasing rates of energy intensity of primary, secondary, and tertiary the BAU scenario and the ET scenario are obtained by employing the
industry are 3%, 4%, and 3% from 2015 to 2030 and 2%, 2%, and 2% ETAM model. For further discussion, the comparison of energy supply,
from 2030 to 2050, respectively. Thus, the end-use intensity of the varietal energy end-use structure, and sectorial energy end use in 2030
primary, secondary, and tertiary industry of Sichuan Province will be and 2050 are illustrated.
0.06 tce/104 yuan, 0.53 tce/104 yuan, and 0.15 tce/104 yuan in 2030 The energy supply of the BAU scenario will be higher than that in the
and 0.04 tce/104 yuan, 0.39 tce/104 yuan, and 0.10 tce/104 yuan in ET scenario in 2030, but the energy supply of the ET scenario will exceed
2050, respectively. In the ET scenario, with the advancement of tech­ that in the BAU scenario in 2050. The power generated by hydro,
nology and development of emerging industries, we set a more aggres­ photovoltaic and wind in Fig. 4 is measured by the primary energy
sive rate of decline in energy intensity so that the end-use intensity of the quantity calculation. Additionally, in the ET scenario, the energy system
primary, secondary, and tertiary industry of Sichuan Province will be transition drives the energy supply structure to become more low-
0.05 tce/104 yuan, 0.45 tce/104 yuan, and 0.13 tce/104 yuan in 2030 carbon, because a large amount of coal is replaced by gas and elec­
and 0.03 tce/104 yuan, 0.28 tce/104 yuan, and 0.08 tce/104 yuan in tricity, and coal power is replaced by gas power and renewable power. In
2050, respectively. the ET scenario, the coal supply will continue decreasing, from 89.6
The relevant data results of the energy intensity of production sector, Mtce in 2015 to 52.5 Mtce in 2030, and 18.5 Mtce in 2050. According to
building sector and transportation sector in Sichuan Province are shown Fig. 4, the oil supply will decrease to 30.3 Mtce in 2050 in the BAU
in Table A1, Table A2 and Table A3, respectively (see Appendix A). scenario and will peak in approximately 2030 and then decrease to 18.9
Mtce in 2050 in the ET scenario. With the rapid urbanisation progress,
(2) The transformation of energy consumption structure there will be a large increase in oil consumption for vehicles, leading to
an oil consumption increase from 18.5 Mtce in 2015 to 30.3 Mtce in
The energy consumption structure of each sector in 2015 comes from 2030. Subsequently, with the increasing use of electric, hybrid electric,
the Sichuan Statistical Yearbook (Sichuan-Provincial-Bureau-of-Statis­ and natural gas-derived vehicles, oil consumption will decrease to 18.9
tics, 2016). Based on the data from the Sichuan Statistical Yearbook and Mtce in 2050. Additionally, natural gas supply will dramatically in­
development projections, we calculated the energy consumption struc­ crease from 34.7 Mtce in 2015 to 93.6 Mtce in 2030, and 156.0 Mtce in
ture of each sector in 2030 and 2050 under each scenario. We consid­ 2050.
ered coal to gas, coal to electricity, oil to gas, and oil to electricity in two Fig. 5 illustrates the energy end-use structure of Sichuan Province in
aspects: end use of production sector, building sector, transportation 2030 and 2050. In the BAU scenario, the proportion of coal in energy
sector and that of the power sector. In the end use of production, coal- end use will decrease sharply by 2030, from 32.7% to 16.3%. This
fired industrial boilers, coal-fired self-generation power plants, coal- decrease is mainly due to the substitution of coal with natural gas and
fired flue-cured tobacco plants, and coal-fired building material kilns electricity. From 2015 to 2030, the proportion of natural gas increases
will change to use electrical boilers. The relevant data results of the from 11.3% to 19.3%, and the proportion of electricity increases from
energy consumption structure transformation of production sector, 32.5% to 45.2%. By 2050, the energy mix in the BAU scenario will not
building sector and transportation sector in Sichuan Province are shown change much, but the amount will increase from 259.3 Mtce to 306.6
in Table A4, Table A5 and Table A6, respectively (see Appendix A). Mtce.
In the ET scenario, the proportion of coal continues to decline, from
32.7% in 2015 to 15.4% in 2030, and to 3.4% in 2050. From 2015 to
2030, natural gas and electricity are the main substitutes for coal, with
Table 3
Scenario setting of thermal power. the proportion of natural gas increasing from 11.3% to 19.8%, and the
proportion of electric power increasing from 32.5% to 46.3%; from 2030
Proportion in thermal power
to 2050, coal is mainly replaced by electricity, the proportion of natural
Coal power Gas power gas decrease to 17.1%, and the proportion of electricity is further
BAU(2030) 85% 15% increased to 67.2% in 2050.
BAU(2050) 65% 35% Because Chinese government promised that the carbon emission
ET (2030) 74% 26% would peak in 2030, coal as a high-carbon energy source will be
ET (2050) 20% 80%
decreased more substantially in the non-electricity field after 2030.

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W. Li et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

Fig. 4. Energy supply of Sichuan Province (2015, 2030, 2050).

Fig. 5. Energy end-use structure of Sichuan Province (2015, 2030, 2050).

Additionally, the proportion of coal consumption for power generation necessary to implement reservoir hydropower projects. Besides, the
will increase from 23% in 2015 to 46.7% and 68.2% in 2030 and 2050, environmental problems, ecological damage and resettlement problems
respectively. Electricity or gas substitution for coal will effectively caused by large-scale hydropower development need to be paid enough
reduce coal consumption in the non-electricity field and total coal attention.
consumption. By 2030, total coal consumption will be reduced to 46 Sichuan Province has introduced policies related to the switch from
Mtce, of which energy efficiency improvements, the implementation of coal to electricity, including subsidies for the infrastructure of switching
coal-to-electricity and coal-to-gas projects will contribute 7.1, 8, and from coal-fired boilers to electric boilers and preferential policies for
10.9 Mtce to the reduction, respectively. electricity prices. To increase the proportion of clean energy consump­
Coal should be used in a hierarchical, centralised, clean, and high- tion, the government should increase the intensity and scope of subsidies
efficient manner. Considering that the coal-fired power plants in in the short term.
Sichuan Province mostly operate in the dry season with annual oper­ By 2020, the newly added proved reserves of conventional natural
ating hours of 1400 h, substantially challenging to their operation, we gas will be 650 billion cubic metres, and the natural gas production will
suggest implementing a ‘Two-Part’ tariff for thermal power plants, to be 45 billion cubic metres, of which 10 billion cubic metres are shale gas.
maintain the benefits of on-grid sales, and consider guaranteed benefits For the natural gas industry, except for the development of gas-fired
to ensure the safety of the power supply. In addition, the hydropower power generation, it is also significant to promote gas substitution for
and thermal power enterprises are encouraged to actively implement coal, especially in large coal-consuming industries (e.g. the iron and
‘hydro-thermal replacement’. To some hydropower stations with regu­ steel industry the building material industry). It is practicable to
lating capacity, the thermal power generation quotas can be sold at implement LNG vehicles to replace the existing heavy trucks, city buses,
lower prices to achieve a win–win situation for the thermal and hy­ and so on. The government should expand the use of natural gas in urban
dropower enterprises. In 2015, the hydropower capacity with seasonal and rural areas and increase the level of gasification. With gradual
regulating capability reached 23.59 GW, accounting for 34% of the total promotion, every county should be laid with gas pipelines. In key areas,
hydropower capacity of Sichuan Province. According to the 13th Five- every town should be laid with gas pipelines. In industrial fuel sectors,
Year Plan of Sichuan Province, by 2020, the proportion will increase coal-to-gas projects should be implemented. For industrial parks and
to 38%. Additionally, because the return on investment is low, the en­ industrial concentration areas, measures should be implemented to
terprises cannot afford the high cost of immigration compensation, land promote CCHP or centralised heating projects. For energy-intensive
floods, and ecological and environmental problems. Therefore, sectors, such as steel and building material manufacturing sectors, gas
governmental support from financial and social management aspects is substitution for coal-fired boilers and kilns should be encouraged.

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W. Li et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

The Third Phase West-to-East Gas Pipeline will be completed to Hydropower plants can respond quickly to the load and are recog­
support natural gas transportation. Natural gas production will increase nised as peaking power supplies, but this is not always the case. During
from 26.7 billion cubic metres to 72 billion cubic metres. The develop­ the wet season, to make full use of the abundant water resources, hy­
ment of a gas substitution for coal, distributed gas-fired power genera­ dropower plants need to generate more electricity and most of them
tion, and gas-derived vehicles will add 5.5 and 7.5 billion cubic metres operate at a high load rate, making it difficult for them to undertake the
of gas demand, respectively. Additionally, the outer-region demand for task of peaking. At this time, thermal power is necessary to undertake
natural gas will increase from 12.5 to 15.1 billion cubic metres. After the necessary peaking task to fulfil the peak load demand. During the dry
2030, with abundant natural gas resources, to fulfil the increasing season, the supply of hydropower is insufficient and cannot fulfil the
electricity demand, Sichuan Province’s gas-fired power generation ca­ demand alone; thus, thermal power is still necessary as a supplement to
pacity will experience considerable expansion in the foreseeable future. the electricity demand. In August 2022, continuous high temperatures
A low-carbon energy, natural gas consumption in non-electricity field and lack of rain led to a sharp increase in electricity demand and a sharp
will be increased as well. decrease in the supply of hydroelectric power, resulting in a power
With an abundant hydro resource, it is promising to form a wind­ shortage in Sichuan Province. Under such circumstances, the electricity
–solar–hydropower system. The system can overcome the discontinuous consumption of industry and commerce is limited to a certain extent. To
and unstable disadvantages of wind and solar power with the good, get rid of similar problems in the short term, we can only increase the
regulated performance of large-scale hydropower stations (i.e., pumped coal-fired power generation and coal supply at the national level. The
storage power station). More reservoir hydropower stations with sea­ main reasons are as follows: 1) Thermal power accounts for a small
sonal regulating capacity should be built to improve the regulating proportion in Sichuan, but thermal power accounts for a very large
capability of hydropower during rain and dry seasons. Additionally, proportion in the whole country. In the past, Sichuan was mainly used as
small-scale hydropower and coal-fired power stations should be shut a power supply point. Of course, there was a small amount of electricity
down step by step. For electricity end use, it is crucial to promote is transmitted between provinces, but the amount was very small, and it
electricity substitution for the present coal–gas–oil consumption. For was difficult to provide enough power to Sichuan in a short time. Power
residential use, the electrification progress of heating, hot water supply, shortages require the grid and the entire coal and thermal power in­
and cooking should be accelerated. For transportation, electric vehicles dustry to provide support. 2) For energy storage, the amount of energy
and rail traffic should be implemented progressively. For coal-fired and that can be supplied for a short period of time is too small to be useful.
oil-fired boilers, appropriate policies are urgently necessary to guide and Additionally, most of the hydropower stations in Sichuan Province are in
impel the implementation of electricity substitution. Notably, trans­ the western areas, away from the load centre, and it is not conducive to
mission to outer regions is not used to control the demand–supply gap the security and stability of the power grid. Thus, some thermal power
but is a means to encourage clean hydropower utilisation in adjacent plants should be built near the load centre. With abundant natural gas
areas of Sichuan Province. The hydropower transmission channels resources that are quick to respond and flexible for peaking operation, it
require large-scale infrastructure that should be constructed and main­ is practicable to promote conventional gas-fired power plants and
tained by the grid company and the administrative area where the distributed energy systems with gas turbines. In summary, although
electricity load is located. Currently, because there are no nationwide hydropower is rich in Sichuan Province, a certain size of thermal power
mandatory requirements for hydropower consumption, the load areas installation must be maintained.
prefer to build new thermal power plants to boost GDP growth and Fig. 6 illustrates that the energy end use in the BAU scenario will be
employment rather than accept clean hydropower. For example, the much higher than that in the ET scenario in 2030 and 2050, indicating
planned Sichuan-Jiangxi UHVDC (ultra-high voltage direct current) substantial supply–demand gaps if measures are not implemented to
Project would transmit 50 billion kWh of electricity annually but has promote energy transition. In the ET scenario, the energy consumption
been suspended for years, and Sichuan Province will abandon over14 of agriculture decreases to 2.5 Mtce in 2050 because of improved energy
billion kWh of hydropower. efficiency and its decreased share in the economic structure. Both the

Fig. 6. Energy consumption by sectors of Sichuan Province (2015, 2030, 2050).

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W. Li et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

BAU scenario and ET scenario show an increasing trend in total energy of Sichuan Province in 2050 will further increase and that the amount of
consumption, and industry and construction industry has always been oil will decrease. Most of the coal consumption will be centralised and
the largest energy consumption sector. In the BAU scenario, energy used for power and heat generation, and direct coal consumption for end
consumption of the industry and construction industry continues to in­ use will be mostly substituted with gas and electricity; 7.7% of natural
crease, from 128.9 Mtce in 2015 to 151.9 Mtce in 2030, and to 183.9 gas will be used for power and heat generation, and 30.8% will be
Mtce in 2050. In the proportion of energy consumption, the proportion directly consumed for end use. Half of the oil consumption will be used
of industry and construction industry decreased from 69.1% in 2015 to for non-commercial transportation. Compared with 2030, in 2050, the
58.6% in 2030 and remained basically unchanged in 2050 compared proportions of agriculture, industry and construction industry, and rural
with 2030. In the ET scenario, the energy consumption of industry and energy end use will decrease, and the proportion of urban energy end
construction industry shows a downward trend, from 145.3 Mtce in use will substantially increase.
2030 to 168.7 Mtce in 2050. In the proportion of energy consumption, From 2015 to 2030, in the transition scenario, the power demand of
the proportion of industry and construction industry decreased to 58.3% Sichuan will increase at an average growth rate of 5.3% annually. The
in 2030 and to 60.3% in 2050. In the BAU scenario and the ET scenario, proportion of coal-fired power capacity will decrease from 15.2% to
the consumption of urban and rural residential building, and commer­ 5.6%; gas-fired power capacity will increase from 1.0% to 1.7%; and
cial traffic showed an increasing trend. non-fossil-fuel-derived power capacity will increase from 83.7% to
The government should conduct research and discussion with energy 92.7%. From 2015 to 2020, the electricity supply is sufficient to fulfil the
enterprises and research institutions, to coordinate and reach consensus provincial and outer-region demand. From 2020 to 2030, considering
from the final demand side for various energies. The mid- and long-term the decommission of existing coal-fired power plants and the reserve
energy development plan of the province should be integrated with all limit of developing hydropower plants, the electricity supply will
the sectors rather than isolated ones of each sector. become insufficient to fulfil the increasing demands from outer regions.
To manage the possible supply–demand gap, substantial efforts are
necessary in promoting wind, solar, and gas-fired power generation.
3.2. Overview of energy transition From 2030 to 2050, with the increase in per capita electricity demand,
industrial electricity demand for the development of coal-to-electricity
Based on the methodology and scenario setting described in Section and oil-to-electricity projects and big-data centres, if Sichuan still
2, the scenario comparison of energy distribution of Sichuan Province is needs to maintain the current amount of hydropower transmitted to the
presented in Table 4. outer regions, the electricity supply in Sichuan will no longer fulfil the
For coal, in the BAU scenario, with increasing demand and limited increasing demand. Therefore, with full consideration of the electricity
resource availability, there will be more coal imports in 2030 than that demand increase potential of Sichuan Province, the electricity trans­
in the ET scenario. In both scenarios, the coal supply becomes almost mission to outer regions should be carefully planned.
self-sufficient in 2050 as coal-fired power generation has been reduced.
For natural gas, in the ET scenario, with the massive exploitation of shale 3.3. CO2 mitigation analysis on energy transition pathway
gas, the exports will substantially increase. For oil, with industrial
transformation and the development of electric vehicles, imports will 3.3.1. CO2 emission pathway analysis
decrease after 2030 in both scenarios. For power generation, in the BAU According to the results of energy transition in the two scenarios
scenario, the local power supply will be sufficient in the energy end use, above, we further calculate and demonstrate the carbon emission path in
but compared with the ET scenario, it cannot meet all the demand for the two scenarios, as shown in Fig. 9. Among them, the dotted line from
power transmission to other provinces. In the ET scenario, due to the 2050 to 2060 is obtained by linear extrapolation according to the
improvement of energy efficiency (see Table A7and Table A8) and development trend after 2030. In BAU scenario, Sichuan’s carbon
further utilisation of hydropower (see Fig. 4), there is less supplement emissions peak in 2034 at 279 Mt, an increase of 18% compared with
for coal-fired power and natural gas-fired power compared with BAU 2015. Carbon emissions in 2060 will be 151 Mt, a 34% reduction from
scenario. 2015, which cannot meet the national proposed carbon peak target
Fig. 7 illustrates that the energy supply of Sichuan Province in 2030 before 2030. Considering the carbon sink of Sichuan province is 47.8 Mt
will be dominated by natural gas and hydropower. For coal consump­ in 2018, the path will not meet the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. In
tion, secondary industry use and power generation will each use half. Oil ET scenario, Sichuan province can achieve a peak of 255 Mt of carbon
consumption will be mainly used for non-commercial transportation. emissions in 2028, increased by 8% from 2015. Carbon emissions in
Hydropower will account for 81.7% of the total power supply, and 2060 will be 13 Mt, a 95% reduction from 2015. With this path, Sichuan
approximately 34.9% of the electricity will be transmitted to outer re­ province could achieve carbon neutrality by 2058 with 45.1 Mt CO2
gions. The proportions of energy end use in agriculture, industry, con­ emissions.
struction industry, building and transportation will be 1.2%, 55.4%,
2.8%, 27.1% and 13.5%, respectively. 3.3.2. CO2 mitigation effect analysis of energy transition
Fig. 8 illustrates that the amount of natural gas in the energy supply In order to further demonstrate the carbon reduction effect brought
by various measures of energy transition, this section focuses on the
Table 4 detailed analysis of the carbon reduction potential of different end-use
Energy distribution in the BAU (Business as usual) and ET (Energy transition) sectors by improving energy efficiency, changing energy mix and
Scenarios (Unit: 1 Mtce). increasing the proportion of renewable electricity under ET scenario.
Scenario Year Mtce Coal Natural Gas Oil Power The results are shown in Fig. 10.
BAU 2015 Local production 44.0 34.7 0.2 97.2 As can be seen from Fig. 10, compared with the carbon emissions in
Import 45.6 − 12.8 43.7 − 39.9 BAU scenario of 151.5 Mt, in 2058, the CO2 emission in ET scenario
2030 Local production 48.6 93.6 0.2 156.5 decreased by 106.4 Mt to 45.1 Mt. In order to further evaluate the
Import 11.8 − 37.0 44.2 − 54.0
carbon emission mitigation potential of ET scenario with various energy
2050 Local production 22.6 156.0 0.3 209.3
Import 1.0 − 67.4 30.0 − 42.2 transition schemes of industrial sectors, on the assumption that the pa­
ET 2030 Local production 43.5 93.6 0.2 164.9 rameters in other departments other than industry stay at benchmark
Import 9.0 − 39.1 40.9 − 61.9 level, we first assessed the effect of energy efficiency improvement on
2050 Local production 17.7 156.0 0.3 226.7 the mitigation of carbon emissions in the industrial sector under the
Import 0.8 − 95.7 18.6 − 49.1
energy transition scenario in 2058. The reduction is 6.8 Mt. On this

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W. Li et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

Fig. 7. Energy allocation diagram of Sichuan Province, 2030.

Fig. 8. Energy allocation diagram of Sichuan Province, 2050.

basis, we have analysed the energy mix of the industrial sector (see scenario analysis of energy consumption transition in different sectors,
Table A4) and the carbon reduction capacity of increasing the propor­ and scenario analysis of the future development time sequence of
tion of renewable electricity (see Fig. 4). And the relative carbon Sichuan’s oversupplied natural gas, hydropower, wind and solar power.
reduction is 42.0 Mt and 3.4 Mt. Then, we use the same methodology to According to the difference of supply and demand in different scenarios,
assess the carbon reduction potential of the energy transition in the we determine the amount of energy sent out for scenario analysis. The
buildings and transportation sectors. The results show that the energy results show that, under the requirement of carbon peak in 2028 and
efficiency improvement, energy mix optimization and the increase in the carbon neutrality in 2058, the local use of renewable energy should
proportion of renewable electricity in industry, transportation, build­ reach 96.0%. According to the contract of electricity transmission from
ings, and other sectors can reduce CO2 emission by 13.3 Mt, 87.8 Mt and west to east, the local electricity gap in Sichuan can only be met by gas
5.4 Mt respectively in ET scenario compared to BAU scenario. Though, power, which will not achieve the carbon reduction target.
the linear extrapolation on scenario results of carbon emission from
2050 onwards is a trend estimation rather than an accurate forecast, of 4. Conclusion and policy implications
which the potential carbon sink is not well considered. If natural carbon
sink and industrial CO2 utilisation technologies are well-developed, the 4.1. Conclusion
CO2 emission will be further reduced.
After the carbon-peak and carbon-neutrality targets are raised, This paper provides a comprehensive understanding of Sichuan
power transfers from other regions will be measured through averaged Province’s energy system while considering the economic and social
CO2 emission factor of the power source, so in the future provinces will development and the energy-relevant factors, to reveal the energy sys­
be willing to bring in renewable power from other regions. We make tem transition process from oversupply to overdemand and analyse the

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W. Li et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

Fig. 9. CO2 emission mitigation pathway of Sichuan Province in BAU and ET scenario.

Fig. 10. Quantitative analysis of CO2 mitigation compared to BAU in 2058.

drivers beyond the trend. 5. Policy implications

The scenario analysis results indicate the following conclusions.
To realise the energy system transition while maintaining high-speed
1) Coal consumption will be further reduced and used in a concentrated economic development, carbon peak and carbon neutrality, we propose
way. The supply of renewable power cannot meet the demand of the following policy suggestions for the Sichuan Provincial Government.
outer-regions, and coal-fired power and natural gas-fired power will
be needed to secure exports. 1) For the power industry, in the short term, it is practicable to transmit
2) In the ET scenario, the increment of renewable energy and gas-fired the surplus electricity to outer regions. In the long term, it is more
power generation will further replace coal-fired power generation. important to improve the power supply structure and plan the
The natural gas supply and demand of Sichuan will both increase for operation timing for different power generation facilities, to main­
coal substitution and clean energy development. tain the electricity demand–supply balance.
3) Sichuan’s carbon emissions peak under BAU scenario and ET sce­ 2) In consideration of the intermittency and volatility of renewable
nario occurs in 2034 and 2028 respectively. The BAU scenario generation, a certain amount of thermal power must be retained. In
cannot achieve carbon neutrality, while carbon neutrality in the ET addition, pumped storage power station is of great significance to
scenario occurs in 2058. ensure the power supply, ensure the safety of the power grid and
4) The energy efficiency improvement, energy mix optimization and promote the absorption of new energy. It is one of the main power
the increase in the proportion of renewable electricity can reduce sources for the medium- and long-term power development in
CO2 emission by 13.3 Mt, 87.8 Mt and 5.4 Mt in 2058 respectively in Sichuan.
ET scenario compared to BAU scenario. 3) For the coal industry, to control the total coal consumption and
direct combustion of scattered coal, a stricter standard for coal

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W. Li et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101015

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