Current Climate Change Reports (2019) 5:407–420

https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4

MID-LATITUDE PROCESSES AND CLIMATE CHANGE (I SIMPSON, SECTION EDITOR)

The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones

Jennifer L. Catto 1 & Duncan Ackerley 2 & James F. Booth 3 & Adrian J. Champion 1 & Brian A. Colle 4 & Stephan Pfahl 5 &
Joaquim G. Pinto 6 & Julian F. Quinting 6 & Christian Seiler 7

Published online: 15 November 2019

# The Author(s) 2019

Abstract
Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of
extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate
what is known and unknown about these future changes.
Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g.,
changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures.
Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to
what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research
could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the
regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones.

Keywords Extratropical cyclones . Climate change . Windstorms . Idealized model . CMIP models

Introduction These features are a vital part of the global circulation and
bring a large proportion of precipitation to the midlatitudes,
The way in which most people will experience climate change including very heavy precipitation events [1–5], which can
is via changes to the weather where they live. In the midlati- contribute to flooding. ETCs are also important for bringing
tudes, this weather is primarily controlled by the passage of strong surface winds and wind gusts [6, 7] and contribute to
extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and their associated fronts. monetary losses in many regions [8–10]. How these cyclones
will change in a future warmer climate is of both socioeco-
This article is part of the Topical Collection on Mid-latitude Processes nomic and scientific importance, but also presents a very com-
and Climate Change plex challenge.
There are multiple properties of the global climate
* Jennifer L. Catto system that influence the frequency, location, and inten-
[email protected] sity of ETCs. We have high confidence in the future
changes of three of these properties: (1) the atmospheric
1
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, moisture content will increase due to rising tempera-
University of Exeter, Level 9, Laver Building, North Park Road, tures; (2) the lower-tropospheric meridional temperature
Exeter, Devon EX4 4QE, UK
gradient will decrease due to polar amplification in the
2
Met Office, Exeter, UK Northern Hemisphere (NH) in the winter in particular,
3
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, City College of New York, New as has already been seen in observations [11]; and (3)
York, NY, USA enhanced warming in the tropical upper troposphere and
4
School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook cooling in the high latitude stratosphere [12] will lead
University, Stony Brook, NY, USA to an increased meridional temperature gradient in the
5
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany vicinity of the tropopause slope at around 30–40° north
6
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of and south. What we have less confidence in is exactly
Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany how these three factors will interact and contribute to
7
Science & Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change future changes in ETCs and the aggregated storm tracks.
Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
408 Curr Clim Change Rep (2019) 5:407–420

The upper and lower level temperature gradients can Theoretical Mechanisms for Future Changes
have compensating effects through changes to the in ETCs
baroclinicity and vertical stratification [13], and the in-
creased atmospheric moisture can also contribute to the The meridional temperature gradient generated by the differ-
ETC changes through latent heating (LH) and impacts ential solar heating between the equator and the poles pro-
on the vertical stratification [13]. duces a situation in the midlatitudes where small perturbations
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (or waves) grow through baroclinic instability [19, 20]. These
(IPCC) assessment report (AR5 [12]) indicated large uncer- perturbations develop into ETCs, with finite life cycles. The
tainty in projected frequencies and preferred locations of preferred locations for cyclogenesis are mainly within regions
ETCs. Nevertheless, slight decreases in the frequency of of highest baroclinicity (as determined via the maximum Eady
ETCs are projected in both hemispheres (in association with growth rate parameter [21]), or in the lee of significant moun-
the changes in baroclinicity), with significant regional vari- tain ranges. Future changes in the horizontal (potential) tem-
ability [12]. The processes behind the storm track uncer- perature gradients in both the upper and lower troposphere, as
tainties have been covered in detail in a previous review paper well as changes to the vertical temperature profile (i.e., static
[13]. Future changes in cyclone impacts in terms of wind stability), are the primary drivers of changes in baroclinicity
speed and precipitation may also depend on more detailed and therefore the locations of the storm tracks. It is worth
and specific changes in cyclone dynamics, intensity, and struc- noting that observations of the seasonal cycle of the storm
ture. The IPCC AR5 and the IPCC Special Report on tracks in the NH reveal a suppression in the upper level storm
Extremes (SREX [14]) mostly considered changes to the track strength in the Pacific at the time of the season when the
ETCs, and precipitation and winds separately. Nevertheless, baroclinicity is largest [22]. This is associated with a larger
two studies [15–17] cited in the AR5 regional projections number of surface cyclones with shorter lifetimes [23] and
chapter [18] showed cyclone-related precipitation increases indicates that the relationship between baroclinicity and the
with generally no increase in wind speed strength. It was also storm tracks is not a simple one.
noted that due to many different ways of defining storm in- LH due to the formation of clouds and precipitation can
tensity, there is “little consensus” on how this might change. increase ETC intensity (if all other factors affecting cyclone
The goal of this review is to summarize recent findings dynamics are unchanged) through its effect on buoyancy, ver-
related to possible future changes in ETCs. It will focus on tical motion, and thus also sea-level pressure and vorticity
the dynamical mechanisms and future projection of anticipat- [24–26]. The relative contribution of diabatic processes to
ed changes to the structure, intensity, characteristics, and im- ETC intensification can be quantified via the pressure tenden-
pacts of midlatitude cyclones. The review will draw on studies cy equation [27], the omega equation [28, 29], or the Zwack-
that make use of a hierarchy of models, from idealized models Okossi equation [30]. Another perspective on the influence of
to complex coupled general circulation models (GCMs). By LH on cyclones can be obtained from the potential vorticity
bringing together the most recent findings, we hope to clarify (PV) framework [31]: diabatic PV generation associated with
some of the uncertainties and highlight aspects for which there LH in clouds leads to the formation of a cyclonic PV anomaly
is a consensus on the future of ETCs. in the lower troposphere that contributes to the cyclonic cir-
First, the theoretical mechanisms and results from ideal- culation [25, 26, 32–34]. More recent climatological studies
ized modeling simulations will be addressed in “Theoretical have used this lower-tropospheric PVanomaly as a measure of
Mechanisms for Future Changes in ETCs” and “Changes in the relevance of diabatic processes for ETCs in different re-
Extratropical Cyclones from Idealized Models” sections. gions [35] and of different intensities [36, 37], indicating that
Projections from more complex models will be described in such lower-tropospheric PVanomalies are dominant factors in
“Future Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Characteristics the development of many intense ETCs [37]. Similar to the
from Climate Models” section along with details of the abil- sea-level pressure tendency equation, the PV tendency equa-
ity of these models to capture the processes of interest. The tion can provide a quantitative estimate of the effects of LH on
importance of different cyclone “types” as well as the tem- this PV anomaly [38].
poral clustering of cyclones in climate projections is ad- The expected future increase of LH due to larger atmo-
dressed in “Cyclone Temporal Clustering” and “Other spheric moisture content (in line with higher ETC precipita-
Types of Cyclones Affecting the Midlatitudes” sections. A tion, see “Future Changes in Extratropical Cyclone
discussion of impacts and their relation to the work described Characteristics from Climate Models” section) may therefore
in the preceeding sections is given in “Cyclone Impacts and lead to a future strengthening of ETCs. However, changes in
Their Future Changes” section. Remaining questions will be other factors driving ETC intensification, such as horizontal
discussed throughout and presented in terms of future oppor- and vertical temperature gradients, partly counteract this direct
tunities in “Discussion” section, with a summary provided in influence of LH. In particular, mid-to-upper-level LH in the
the final section. extratropical atmosphere is expected to increase the mean
Curr Clim Change Rep (2019) 5:407–420 409

static stability [39], which counteracts ETC intensification. of the strong wind footprint in idealized ETCs has also been
The net effect of these processes is difficult to determine and identified with cyclone-centric compositing [49]. Changes in
might be small (see “Future Changes in Extratropical Cyclone the size of ETCs in idealized warming simulations appear to
Characteristics from Climate Models” section). be sensitive to the method used to define size, with hardly any
change seen in one study [47], and a large decrease in size in
another [41].
Changes in Extratropical Cyclones Most of these idealized studies suggest that if the back-
from Idealized Models ground state is unchanged, adding moisture leads to stronger
ETC circulation; however, such studies cannot address the
Attempts to isolate the effect of changes in atmospheric mois- issue of the impact of moisture on the background state.
ture and LH on ETC dynamics have been made with the help Moisture is expected to have an impact because moisture
of idealized model simulations. For example, baroclinic life transport and LH effectively transport energy towards higher
cycle experiments have been undertaken in which the atmo- latitudes and altitudes and thus affect horizontal and vertical
spheric moisture content is increased (either directly or by temperature gradients. The presence of moisture in a
increasing temperature and keeping relative humidity con- quasigeostrophic model [50] or warming in an idealized
stant). Such experiments indicate that changes in ETC inten- GCM [47, 51] may actually decrease storm track EKE, which
sity depend on the background state and the complex interac- is consistent with a thermodynamic heat engine model [52].
tions between LH and dry baroclinic processes [40–42]. Nevertheless, in the same idealized GCM simulations in-
One such study showed how increased moisture amounts creased LH led to a robust enhancement of lower-
similar to those in GCM projections could increase the tropospheric PV anomalies [47, 53], and a concomitant inten-
strength of ETCs in terms of the surface winds and vertically sification (measured in terms of near-surface relative vorticity)
integrated eddy kinetic energy (EKE, which reflects wind of the strongest storms over a wide range of climates.
changes also at upper levels [37]). Studies using ensembles
of idealized simulations have shown that the impact of mois-
ture on ETC strength (defined as both EKE and minimum Future Changes in Extratropical Cyclone
mean sea-level pressure (MSLP)) is small relative to changes Characteristics from Climate Models
in the initial meridional temperature gradient and that ETC
strength does not monotonically increase with increased GCMs are commonly used to determine future changes in
baroclinicity and moisture [41, 43]. These analyses revealed climate and meteorological events. The Fifth Coupled
that the ETC response to increasing moisture changes depend- Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 [54]) provides an ar-
ing on the initial temperature of the background state. chive of data from state-of-the-art models, with the most re-
Furthermore, the EKE does not increase at higher tempera- cent archive (CMIP6) becoming available now (although
tures due to shifts in the location of the upper level ridge and there are no relevant published studies making use of these
the diabatic heating, which reduces the positive interaction brand new data at the time of writing). There are a number of
between upper and lower levels [42, 43]. Increasing upper- recent studies making use of the CMIP5 archive and similar
level baroclinicity can increase the EKE, which is also related simulations to try to determine how ETCs might change in the
to the role of moisture in the interaction between upper-level future, particularly with respect to their characteristics such as
and near-surface instabilities [42]. In an idealized GCM sim- intensity, winds, and precipitation. There are also methods that
ulation, it was found that ETC strength is more sensitive to can be used to investigate potential future changes in
changes in upper-tropospheric baroclinicity than to changes in extratropical cyclones that lie in between idealized modeling
the lower troposphere [44]. and full GCM climate simulations. These are known as “ana-
Finally, other work (using idealized baroclinic life cycle logue” methods, where examples of warmer conditions from
simulations) has shown that higher moisture content will lead the historical record are used as examples of potential future
to an increased asymmetry between strong, narrow ascent, and conditions; and “pseudo-climate change” experiments, where
broad, slow descent in the midlatitudes [45]. This signal has high-resolution simulations of case studies are performed with
also been found in GCMs [46]. Corresponding structural the boundary conditions representative of a warmer climate.
changes to the precipitation distribution have also been iden- Such studies are included in this section.
tified using cyclone-centric compositing techniques, with the
heaviest precipitation concentrated near the center of the Model Evaluation
ETCs in a warmer climate [41, 47]. The footprints of extreme
precipitation in an idealized ETC (defined as 99.9th percen- On the whole, GCMs are able to simulate the midlatitude
tile) have been found to increase in size, including the size of storm tracks over the Atlantic Ocean, Pacific Ocean,
coherent regions of extreme precipitation [48]. A broadening Mediterranean, and throughout the Southern Ocean [55–58];
410 Curr Clim Change Rep (2019) 5:407–420

however, there are known systematic biases. Within GCMs, investigate this further and in much more detail. It is clear that
there is a tendency for the North Atlantic storm track to be too more systematic evaluations of the storm tracks, seasonally,
zonally orientated [17], the North Pacific storm track to be regionally, and in both hemispheres are required to get a true
displaced equatorward [59], and the Mediterranean storm indication of how well the storm tracks are simulated in
track to be too weak and displaced poleward [60]. In the SH, CMIP6.
there is a tendency for the storm track (and also the jet) to be
too weak and displaced equatorward relative to reanalysis data ETC Intensity
[56]. The models that show the largest bias in the storm track
position actually project the largest meridional shift in the There are different ways to define ETC intensity, such as the
storm tracks in the future [56]. The representation of the strength of the wind, the cyclonic vorticity, the deepening
storms themselves also shows biases. While the general dy- rates, or the central MSLP. CMIP5 models generally simulate
namical features of ETCs are represented in climate models a reduction in ETC intensity (according to both winds and
[61], there are problems representing the moist processes deepening rates) in the NH in response to increasing future
[62–66], with too frequent, low-intensity precipitation, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations [17, 58, 79, 80].
incorrect LH profiles due to clouds occurring at the wrong Using the 90th percentile of 850-hPa wind speed during the
heights [62]. There are also biases in cloud fraction that have historic period as a threshold value for defining extreme
been attributed to parameterized convection schemes [67]. ETCs, there is a projected decrease in extreme ETC frequency
Given the importance of the LH for determining the poleward by 8% in DJF and by 6% in JJA on average in the North
propagation of the storms [68], these biases may be related to Atlantic from the CMIP5 models under RCP8.5 [17].
the storm track biases mentioned above. Furthermore, given Similar values apply to the NH as a whole, where there is a
the importance of LH in cyclone structure and development projected multi CMIP5 model mean decrease in projected
(see “Theoretical Mechanisms for Future Changes in ETCs” intense ETC frequency by 5% under RCP8.5 [80]. Using re-
section), reducing the errors in cloud processes will be instru- cent warm and cold periods as analogues for global warming,
mental in improving projections of cyclone-related properties. no increase in maximum wind speeds associated with ETCs
While the studies highlighted above do provide an over- was seen during warm periods [81]. However, an increase in
view of the main storm track location and strength, there are wind associated with ETCs is identified for some regions,
still many potential areas of further work that could be under- notably the British Isles and the North Sea [17]. For example,
taken. First, there is very little assessment of the seasonal a case study for storm Xynthia has provided evidence that the
characteristics of the storm tracks as the studies above are very anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) strongly con-
primarily focused on the winter and/or summer. Recent work tributed to the extreme impacts [82]. Also, pseudo-climate
has shown that there are considerable differences in the sea- change experiments of individual cyclones with spatially ho-
sonal characteristics of the NH storm tracks, which should mogeneous warming mostly indicate an increase in near sur-
also be investigated in GCMs [69, 70]. Furthermore, strong face wind gusts, which can largely be explained by the in-
storms are known to develop and have a large socioeconomic crease in LH [53]. Moreover, there are indications of an in-
impact not only in winter but also in the spring/autumn (e.g., crease in the occurrence of ETCs featuring sting jets [83]
the Great Storm of 1987 over the southern UK [71]). Second, within storms over the UK for a single climate model [84].
regional-scale assessments of the storm tracks need to look These numbers may increase further as the model resolution
beyond the ocean basins; for example, there are important gets higher.
systems that develop in the lee of the Rockies [72], the Concerning the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the wind in-
Andes [73] and the Altai/Sayan/Tibetan Plateau highlands in tensity of extreme winter ETCs is projected to increase, rang-
East Asia [74], or over the Western Mediterranean [75], which ing from 19 to 52% for different intensity definitions, from the
propagate over the populated land masses. Such lee cyclones CMIP5 models under RCP8.5 [85]. The opposing response of
develop as a result of complex topographical/low-level flow intense ETC frequency in the NH versus the SH is consistent
interaction [76] and the presence of an upper-level shortwave with the projected changes in the 850-hPa equator-to-pole air
trough that enables their propagation away from the mountain temperature gradient (i.e., a decrease in the NH and an in-
range [74]. Representing such cyclones in GCMs would pres- crease in the SH [86]). For a more in-depth analysis of the
ent a challenge as they require good resolution/ regional climate impacts of changes in ETC winds and their
parametrization of topographical interaction with the back- uncertainties, the reader is directed to another review article in
ground flow; however, their representation in, e.g., CMIP5 this issue [87].
has received very little attention. Third (and finally), there is Defining intense ETCs based on their deepening rate rather
evidence that increasing model resolution acts to improve the than wind speed shows that the frequency of explosive cy-
simulated storm tracks [77], and the simulations performed as clones, i.e., ETCs with deepening rates that exceed one
part of HighResMIP [78] should provide an opportunity to Bergeron [88], are projected to decrease in the NH Atlantic
Curr Clim Change Rep (2019) 5:407–420 411

by about 17% under RCP 8.5 [79]. This reduction is correlated scenario but increase over much of the very high latitudes
with a decline in the lower-tropospheric Eady growth rate and [100]. The decreases are mainly associated with a change in
is stronger for models with smaller biases in the frequency of the precipitation fraction falling as snow, and the increases are
explosive cyclones. On the other hand, explosive ETCs are associated with increased total precipitation. The relationship
projected to shift northwards in the NH Pacific, with no sig- between these changes and ETCs specifically has not yet been
nificant frequency changes when averaged across the Pacific addressed.
basin. Dynamical downscaling experiments showed that the It has been recognized that a high model resolution (~
projected reduction of explosive ETC frequency in the 20 km) is required to accurately capture cloud-diabatic pro-
Atlantic is not very sensitive to changes in the horizontal cesses, which often take place on relatively small spatial scales
model resolution, possibly due to the lack of impact of reso- (mesoscales), e.g., in the region of fronts and their associated
lution on the maximum Eady growth rate in that study [89]. conveyor belts [101]. Several studies have thus relied on re-
This result is somewhat in contrast with other studies that gional climate models to assess the effect of LH on future
show increased sensitivity to warming in higher resolution cyclone changes in realistic setups [95, 102]. These regional
models [90]. simulations project a robust amplification of lower-
tropospheric PV within cyclones (again in line with increased
ETC Precipitation precipitation intensities) and a tendency towards higher near-
surface wind velocities, albeit with some spatial variability.
Water vapor is expected to increase in a warming climate Moreover, in areas showing large precipitation increases (such
given the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, so confidence is as the East Coast of the USA), the feedback between the LH
relatively high that there will be a future increase in precipita- from heavy precipitation and cyclone deepening will be en-
tion with ETCs. This is important since ETCs account for 80– hanced [5] with implications for the life cycle characteristics
90% of the precipitation at mid to high latitudes [2, 5]. CMIP5 of the cyclones (with slower deepening rates at the start and
models show an increase in precipitation on ETC days of 10– increased deepening rates later in the life cycle) [94].
15% along the US East Coast by 2100 [91] and a 15–30% Feedbacks may further increase the precipitation by increasing
increase in cyclone-related precipitation [92, 93], with the the forcing for ascent [95], although the rising moisture con-
relatively deep cyclones (central MSLP < 990 hPa) having tent is likely the dominant factor for the changes in precipita-
the largest increase [5]. From downscaled regional modeling, tion intensity [92].
the precipitation around ETCs may increase by 30–35% by
2100, which is slightly less than the Clausius-Clapeyron scal- Cyclone Life Cycles and Structure
ing, and the increases seem to be larger in downscaled CMIP5
model data than at the native resolution [94]. ETCs with large Idealized models have shown changes to the structure of pre-
rain rates will be more frequent and have greater spatial extent cipitation and winds in warmer climates (see “Changes in
across the North Atlantic storm track [95]. Two atmospheric Extratropical Cyclones from Idealized Models” section), and
analogue studies also found an increase in the precipitation an increase in cyclone lifetimes [47]. A single climate model
intensity associated with ETCs in warmer, moister conditions study looking at the 100 most intense cyclones (using either
[81, 82]. Such increases in precipitation intensity associated the maximum central vorticity or the precipitation as the in-
with midlatitude weather systems (mainly frontal) have been tensity measure) indicated that the composite ETC structure
observed in particular regions [96], but a global systematic does not change by the end of the twenty-first century [15].
study of observed trends in ETC precipitation is currently Another study compositing a very large number of cyclones
lacking, possibly due to a lack of required observations. from a large ensemble [92] and a regional modeling study [95]
Nevertheless, future changes in cyclone precipitation may were consistent with the idealized picture of the largest pre-
deviate from this general intensification tendency in specific cipitation intensification near the cyclone center. There is less
regions. For example, the projected future decrease in precip- consistency in the changes to the structure of the winds [95].
itation in the Mediterranean is related to both a decrease in the There is also some suggestion that in the 100 most intense
number of Mediterranean cyclones and also a decrease in the ETCs, the low-level winds and the vorticity decay more
precipitation amount within cyclones in specific subregions quickly after the peak intensity, but only for the most strongly
[60]. Uncertainties associated with changes in the storm tracks precipitating ETCs [15]. The poleward propagation of ETCs
in the future also lead to uncertainties in how precipitation will is influenced by the latent heating that occurs in the warm
change in different regions [97, 98]. conveyor belt region [103] via the low-level PV anomaly. As
ETCs are also highly relevant for snowfall events in higher LH increases in the future, cyclones are expected to move
latitudes [99]. Snowfall is projected (using CMIP5 simula- faster and more polewards [68, 104], which may have impacts
tions) to decrease over much of the mid to high latitudes by for future hazard forecasting, and thus also on the quantifica-
the end of the twenty-first century under a high emission tion of the climate change impacts associated with ETCs.
412 Curr Clim Change Rep (2019) 5:407–420

One important component of the structure of ETCs is the of jet variability and Rossby wave breaking [115]. Thus,
associated fronts. CMIP5 models project decreases in the fre- the impact of climate change on cyclone clustering is still
quency and strength of fronts over large parts of the NH and a unclear and needs further evaluation. A recent evaluation
small increase over western Europe [105]. The increase over of HiGEM simulations revealed that this high-resolution
Europe is consistent with observational studies [106], and may coupled GCM simulates similar cyclone and clustering
be associated with increased humidity. The decreases are con- statistics to reanalyses [116]. This is attributed to the good
sistent with the decreasing low-level baroclinicity. If the front representation of Rossby wave breaking over the North
frequency decreases but ETC precipitation increases, this sug- Atlantic in HiGEM. These results motivate a detailed as-
gests the potential for an increase in frontal precipitation in- sessment of the impact of climate change on cyclone clus-
tensity in the future, or a shift of the precipitation within the tering based on the new CMIP6 coupled atmosphere-
cyclones to a more central part of the cyclone consistent with ocean model ensemble in order to better understand how
idealized and climate modeling studies [47, 92]. These are the resultant extreme weather and socioeconomic impacts
aspects of the ETC structure that would benefit from further might change.
research.

Cyclone Temporal Clustering Other Types of Cyclones Affecting

the Midlatitudes
Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several
cyclones may traverse a specific region within a short time Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
period. Such a succession of storms is often called a “cyclone
cluster” [107] and can be associated with “cyclone families,” Except for the Southern Indian Ocean, the annual frequency of
often leading to large cumulative impacts (e.g., high precipi- tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET
tation and flooding). This characteristic has been identified in [106–108]) does not show any statistically significant trend
the North Atlantic region, and there are specific dynamical in the present climate [117]. The investigation of potential
features associated with the occurrence of cyclone clustering changes of tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing ET in a warm-
[108]. The first is the modulation by large-scale atmospheric er climate has received relatively little attention. This is partly
patterns (notably the North Atlantic Oscillation), whose phase due to the limitations associated with objective, automated TC
shifts and persistence are associated with Rossby wave break- detection and tracking methods as well as with the definition
ing [109], which lead to higher cyclone counts at a certain of ET itself. In addition, a comparison of high-resolution
location via strong steering of the storms. The second factor National Center for Atmospheric Research Community
is the development of secondary cyclones on the trailing fronts Atmospheric Model hindcasts, reanalysis data, and TC best
of a previous system [110], increasing the number of cyclones track data indicated systematic structural errors present during
in a family. Still, cyclone clusters may also occur purely by ET in climate models [118].
chance [111]. In statistical terms, clustering can be quantified Notwithstanding these limitations, recent studies have
using the dispersion statistic [112], which estimates if the rate assessed the changes of ET in a warmer climate using the
of occurrence of an event (e.g., cyclone passages in a certain cyclone phase space of Hart [119] as the classification stan-
location) corresponds to a homogenous Poisson process (ran- dard of ET [120]. For warmer climate scenarios, it is expected
dom), to a regular process (underdispersion), or to clustering that the number of TCs undergoing ET will increase over the
(overdispersion). Evaluations of different reanalyses North Atlantic [121–123] partly due to spatial shifts in TC
[112–114] revealed that the flanks and the exit region of the genesis locations [123]. This increased frequency of TCs un-
North Atlantic storm track are preferential areas for clustering, dergoing ET is projected to lead to an increase of rainfall
while the storm track core region is underdispersive. associated with ET events in the northeastern USA. In addi-
In general, climate models can reproduce the spatial tion, the TCs undergoing ET may become more intense as
pattern of clustering despite several biases [111, 114]. depicted by high-resolution pseudo-climate change simula-
Regarding future projections, there are generally inconsis- tions of Hurricane Sandy [124]. Further downstream, a warm-
tent results from different climate models [111, 114], pri- er Atlantic Ocean may result in an increased frequency of
marily attributed to large sampling uncertainty. Cyclone post-ET reintensification, which will likely affect western
clustering may decrease over parts of the North Atlantic Europe [122]. Though first approaches towards assessing the
and Europe, but generally, the changes in the dispersion changes of ET in a warmer climate have been made,
statistic are small and uncertain [111]. In fact, the impact multimodel studies focused on the global climatology of ET
of climate change on the physical processes associated are needed to generate a comprehensive picture of ET, partic-
with cyclone clustering is also uncertain, namely in terms ularly in relation to winds and precipitation.
Curr Clim Change Rep (2019) 5:407–420 413

Subtropical Cyclones would imply a reduction in wind hazards associated with

ETCs; however, they do not account for changes in mesoscale
Subtropical cyclones occur in most ocean basins, and their processes within ETCs that can further enhance wind damage.
thermal structure is characterized by a warm core at low levels For example, recent work [84] shows a 60% increase in sting
and a cold core at upper levels (e.g., see [125] for a compre- jet precursor conditions over the North Atlantic in general and
hensive review). While their genesis occurs in the subtropics, a doubling over the British Isles during September to May for
the cyclones can propagate into the midlatitudes [126]. 2100 relative to present day (RCP8.5). More broadly, an in-
Though earlier studies hypothesized that changes in SST or crease in damaging windstorms for central and western
in the midlatitude flow could lead to an increased frequency of Europe during the next several decades and smaller changes
subtropical cyclones [127, 128], the systematic investigation or a small decrease for northern and southern Europe [144,
of potential changes in a warmer climate has received very 145] can be found. Overall, monetary losses from European
little attention until more recently. This may be due to the large wind storms (ETCs) are expected to increase by about 8% for
computational resources needed to run models at high enough every 1 °C increase (mean increase of about 25% for a 2.5 °C
resolution to resolve the mesoscale processes involved in the temperature increase [146]). This estimate is highly uncertain
formation and maintenance of subtropical cyclones [129, and will depend on future economic scenarios and adaptation
130]. More recently, studies assessed trends of subtropical measures.
cyclones over the eastern North Atlantic and in particular over By comparison, cyclone intensity is expected to increase in
the Mediterranean using ensembles of high-resolution global the SH [85], which would imply that there should be an in-
and regional climate models. A common agreement of these crease in wind-related hazards. Nevertheless, most of the SH
studies is that the frequency of subtropical cyclones will de- midlatitudes contain little land, and therefore, the hazards in
crease in both regions, though the maximum intensity is ex- populated areas may not be affected by these changes in
pected to increase [131–138] including stronger winds and ETCs. Instead, focus should be on specific cyclone categories
more rainfall [139]. The projected decrease in the frequency (e.g., hybrid cyclones [147]), which are known to have large
of Mediterranean cyclones coincides with observations for impacts on populated areas. Overall, it is clear that there is a
past decades [140]. lack of studies that focus on how wind impacts of specific
cyclone types or the subsynoptic processes may change into
Arctic Cyclones the future in both hemispheres.

Arctic cyclones are another category of baroclinic disturbance Inland Flooding

that affect the northern high latitudes and have received some
recent attention. A review of Arctic cyclones [141] summa- There is presently a lack of information regarding future
rized that future projections from GCMs with different changes in flood magnitude or frequency, due to modeling
warming scenarios show a decrease in the frequency of these uncertainties (hydrological models and downscaling tech-
cyclones during the winter and an increase during the summer niques in particular) and large interannual variability [148].
by the end of the twenty-first century. This is despite the ob- Furthermore, catchment-specific information is needed to pro-
served increase in Arctic cyclone activity over the recent past ject future flooding [149] as well as better understanding of
from ETCs moving into the region (rather than from cyclones physical mechanisms that govern flood occurrence, such as
generated in the region) [142] and an increase in extreme precipitation duration, spatial extent, and intensity associated
Arctic cyclones (defined as cyclones with MSLP below the with different weather systems.
fifth percentile) [143]. The extreme cyclones are influenced Nevertheless, the projected increase in ETC-associated pre-
both by enhanced surface fluxes due to decreased sea ice and cipitation would be expected to cause increased inland
by atmospheric circulation [143]. In the future, changes in the flooding from these storms, which could cause issues in pop-
large-scale circulation might play a larger role and be respon- ulated regions of the eastern USA and western Europe. One
sible for the decrease projected. example of widespread inland flooding occurred over the UK
in December, January, and February (DJF) 2013–2014 [150],
which was caused by cyclone temporal clustering [151].
Cyclone Impacts and Their Future Changes Storm Desmond, which hit the UK in December 2015, caused
widespread flooding and about £0.5 billion of damage [152],
Wind due to a large atmospheric river tracking across the Atlantic.
As AR intensity is generally expected to increase in a
As discussed in “Changes in Extratropical Cyclones from warming climate [153, 154], the impacts of events such as
Idealized Models” section, there is generally a decrease in Storm Desmond may also increase. Overall, as precipitation
ETC wind speed projected in the NH. Superficially, this around ETCs is projected to increase by at least 20–35% over
414 Curr Clim Change Rep (2019) 5:407–420

the Northeast USA by 2100 [94]; the flooding impacts of such and modulates the amount of wave exposure along the coast,
cyclone clustering and AR events are also likely to increase. but there is little understanding of these future changes.
Further regional and global studies on these projected changes
are therefore urgently required.

Discussion
Coastal Flooding and Wave Damage
The Differing Ways of Defining Changes Associated
Coastal flooding from storm surge is one of the most danger- with ETCs
ous and damaging hazards from ETCs, either from winter
storms [155] or tropical storms undergoing ET, such as hurri- In “Future Changes in Extratropical Cyclones from Climate
cane Sandy (2012) as it approached the US East Coast [156, Models” section, some different diagnostics that can be used
157]. Even though the ETC winds are typically weaker than a to define cyclone intensity were discussed. One factor that
hurricane, the ETC wind field is larger in spatial extent and creates difficulty in reaching a consensus on how the intensity
can enhance the coastal flooding over several high tide cycles of cyclones might change in the future is the way in which the
[158]. As a result, for New York City (NYC), 15 of the top 22 intensity itself is analyzed. If we consider winds as an exam-
known historical storm tide events were caused by ETCs ple, there are different ways of analyzing future changes in
[159]. A multilinear regression method using derived surface cyclone-related winds, some of which can be visualized with
wind stress and sea-level pressure from several CMIP5 the schematic in Fig. 1.
models under the RCP8.5 scenario found little change in
storm surges for the NYC area from present day to 2054– 1. Geographically: how does the frequency or intensity of
2079 [160]. Moreover, by using a hydrodynamic model cyclone-related wind change at a given location?
forced with six hourly 10-m winds and sea-level pressures, 2. Mean intensity change: how does, e.g., the mean or max-
only small increases were found in surge heights for a number imum wind around a cyclone change? This is demonstrat-
of coastal cities along the Northeastern US Coast for the same ed by the colored vertical lines in Fig. 1 and may not show
models, time period, and scenario [161]. Nonetheless, there any change despite a change in the shape of the distribu-
are relatively large uncertainties, since one climate model pre- tion. For example, the cyan curve has the same mean as
dicted a 25–40% increase in surge heights. Furthermore, with the black and red curves, but clearly different shape dis-
rising sea levels during the next several decades, the return tribution. Since the distribution is non-Gaussian (as would
periods for coastal flooding with minimal surge increases are be many of the variables associated with ETCs) looking at
expected to decrease significantly. The ~ 0.5 m of regional the median rather than the mean of the distribution might
sea-level rise in NYC between 1800 and 2000 implies that be more informative, although in the case here, the medi-
Sandy’s return period decreased by a factor of three [162]. In an of the cyan curve would be lower. Looking at the
the future for NYC, a 1-in-100-year flood for NYC is expected
to occur every 8–59 years (90th and 10th percentiles) by the
2080s [159].
Waves and associated coastal erosion from ETCs can in-
crease coastal flooding damage. ETCs can have large coastal
erosion impacts given the prolonged wave energy over several
tidal cycles, but there is a scarcity of observational datasets of
extreme beach erosion to adequately resolve the impacts of
individual storms [163]. Projections of deep-water wave cli-
matologies by 2100 are highly variable [164–166]. A partic-
ular wave model and historical analysis showed that synoptic
storms (2–10-day bandpass filtered winds) have the largest
impact on the waves from East Coast of North America to
western Europe [167]. This study noted a large uncertainty Fig. 1 Schematic of frequency distributions of intensity of ETC using
in future wave heights over the North Atlantic given the rela- hypothetical gamma distributions. Black = present day; red, cyan, blue =
tively large variability in storm track intensity and frequency potential future. The black line represents present day distribution; the red
in this region. Future wave increases are most pronounced line represents the same parameters as present day but 10% fewer storms;
cyan and blue represent different possible distributions. The red vertical
across the SH and are associated with the strengthening of dashed line is the mean of the black, red, and cyan curves, and the blue
the Southern Ocean westerlies and southerly shift of the storm dashed line is the mean of the blue curve. The colored arrows represent
track [166, 168]. Wave directionality is also important [163] the 99th percentiles of the black and red, cyan, and blue curves
Curr Clim Change Rep (2019) 5:407–420 415

whole distribution would give the greatest understanding simulations. A recent review paper [171] has analyzed in
of the changes. depth what we can learn from using models of different
3. Frequency change: how does the frequency of cyclones complexity. In the specific context of ETCs, the consider-
with high wind speeds change? This would be related to ation of the “hierarchy of processes” seems to be the most
the number of events above the high-intensity threshold. relevant. The consideration of models of intermediate pro-
If the number of storms decreases without any change in cess complexity will be instrumental to better link the
the distribution, this number would decrease. However, if results from idealized modeling with GCM projections.
the shape of the distribution changes (e.g., the cyan or One of the challenges associated with this is the data re-
blue distributions in Fig. 1), this could increase. quired to be output from climate models to diagnose these
4. Extreme intensity: how does the intensity of the extreme dynamical processes (e.g., diabatic temperature
events change? (i.e., what is the change in the 99th per- tendencies).
centile for example). This is illustrated by the colored & There are many studies focusing on small regions or par-
arrows in Fig. 1 and shows that it is possible to have the ticular sets of statistics. Studies also considering the inten-
same mean but a higher 99th percentile value when the sity of cyclones in all of the different ways discussed
distribution shape changes. above for particular regions would also be a valuable
5. Footprint: how does the size of the region affected by high addition.
intensity winds change? & In terms of developing the communication of future storm
risk to the public, making use of the naming of particular
storms might be useful [172], where future changes could
Studies that consider all of these together for a single region be described in terms of present day analogues.
or one method for the whole globe would be extremely useful
towards future synthesis reports in order enable a consistent
comparison of different studies. This seems like a good ave-
nue for future research efforts, although comparing the distri- Summary
butions of intensity from models with differing resolutions
could be difficult. This would need to be taken into account ETCs are expected to change in frequency, preferred location,
by using data interpolated to the same grid. Methods 2–4 characteristics, and impacts in the future. The main features of
would likely be more directly applicable to idealized studies, ETCs that have been discussed in this review and how they are
which do not have geographical considerations, thereby help- expected to change in the future are represented schematically in
ing to bridge the gap between idealized and complex GCM Fig. 2 and synthesized here with reference to the features in Fig. 2.
results. 1. Baroclinicity and thereby storm development will be im-
pacted by the increased upper tropospheric temperature
Remaining Questions and Future Directions gradient (feature 1), decreased lower-tropospheric tem-
perature gradient (feature 2) (in the NH only), and in-
There are a number of questions remaining and potential areas creased static stability (feature 3), as well as increased
of research on the future of ETCs, which are summarized here. LH release (feature 4). These factors do not change mono-
tonically with warming, and so there are still uncertainties
& Currently, there is still a lot of uncertainty and disagree- around the precise impact.
ment about the opposing influences of surface and upper- 2. Precipitation within ETCs is expected to increase in inten-
tropospheric warming and LH. How will these shift the sity (feature 5), but there are mixed results in terms of how
storms and affect their frequency and intensity? Higher this feeds back onto the intensity of the winds (feature 6)
resolution models may better represent the impact of latent or the central pressure (feature 7).
heating on extratropical cyclone intensity, so it will be of 3. Inland flooding is projected to increase due to precipita-
great interest to investigate how a suite of high-resolution tion and moisture transport increases (feature 8), but
models [78] will project the future of ETCs. Will these catchment-specific information is lacking. Coastal
give dramatically different projections? flooding from storm surges is likely to increase in the
& A focus on the different types of cyclones that impact the future, mainly associated with rising sea levels.
midlatitudes and how they change, for example by using 4. While wind strength projections are uncertain (feature 6),
cyclone classification techniques [169, 170], can help bet- there are expected future increases in storm-related costs.
ter understand changes in cyclones and the aggregated
storm tracks. There are clearly still many avenues of research that would
& Current results from idealized simulations are not easily yield valuable information to guide adaptation measures for
comparable with the output from complex climate future climate change in the midlatitudes.
416 Curr Clim Change Rep (2019) 5:407–420

Feature 1 2 3 4 5 (intensity) 5 (extent) 6 7 8

Confidence High High High High High Low Low Medium Low
Fig. 2 Schematic diagram summarizing future changes to extratropical of the features listed in the diagram, based on the assessment of the
cyclones in the NH. The table shows the confidence in the change of each literature carried out here

Acknowledgments J. L. Catto was supported by the Natural 4. Catto JL, Pfahl S. The importance of fronts for extreme precipita-
Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/S004645/1. The con- tion. J Geophys Res. 2013;118:10,791–801.
tribution of J. Quinting was supported by the Helmholtz Association 5. Zhang Z, Colle BA. Changes in extratropical cyclone precipitation
(grant VH-NG-1243). J.G. Pinto thanks the AXA Research Fund for their and associated processes during the twenty-first century over east-
support. A. J. Champion was supported by the NERC grant NE/ ern North America and the Western Atlantic using a cyclone-
N018486/1. D. Ackerley was supported by the Joint BEIS/Defra Met relative approach. J Clim. 2017;30(21):8633–56.
Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). B. A. Colle was 6. Fink AH, Brücher T, Ermert V, Krüger A, Pinto JG. The European
supported by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological
Climate Preparedness and Resilience Program with administrative sup- impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change.
port from Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE). The Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci. 2009;9:405–23.
authors would also like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their 7. Dowdy A, Catto JL. Extreme weather caused by concurrent cy-
constructive comments on the manuscript. clone, front and thunderstorm occurrences. Sci Rep. 2017;7.
8. Roberts JF, Champion AJ, Dawkins LC, Hodges KI, Shaffrey LC,
Compliance with Ethical Standards Stephenson DB, et al. The XWS open access catalogue of extreme
European windstorms from 1979 to 2012. Nat Hazards Earth Syst
Sci. 2014;14:2487–501.
Conflict of Interest On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author 9. MunichRe G. Schadenspiegel special feature issue risk factor of
states that there is no conflict of interest. air . 2008. Available from: www.munichre.com
10. Shimkus CE, Ting M, Booth JF, Adamo SB, Madajewicz M,
Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Kushnir Y, et al. Winter storm intensity, hazards, and property
Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://
losses in the New York tristate area. Ann N Y Acad Sci.
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use,
2017;1400(1):65–80.
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appro-
11. Wang J, Kim H-M, Chang EKM. Changes in northern hemisphere
priate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the
winter storm tracks under the background of Arctic amplification.
Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
J Clim. 2017;30(10):3705–24.
12. Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, Dufresne J-L, Fichefet T,
Friedlingstein P, et al. Long-term Climate Change: Projections,
Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K.
Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V.
Bex and P.M. Midgley, editor. Climate Change 2013: the physical
References science basis contribution of working group I to the fifth assess-
ment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.
1. Catto JL, Jakob C, Berry G, Nicholls N. Relating global precipi- Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press; 2013.
tation to atmospheric fronts. Geophys Res Lett. 2012;39. 13. Shaw TA, Baldwin M, Barnes EA, Caballero R, Garfinkel CI,
2. Hawcroft MK, Shaffrey LC, Hodges KI, Dacre HF. How much Hwang YT, et al. Storm track processes and the opposing influ-
Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical ences of climate change. Nat Geosci. 2016;9(9):656–64.
cyclones? Geophys Res Lett 2012;39 14. IPCC. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to ad-
3. Pfahl S, Wernli H. Quantifying the relevance of cyclones for pre- vance climate change adaptation. A Special Report of Working
cipitation extremes. J Clim. 2012;25:6770–80. Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Curr Clim Change Rep (2019) 5:407–420 417

Change. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, 37. Seiler C. A climatological assessment of intense extratropical cy-
Ebi KL, et al., editors. . Cambridge, and New York: Cambridge clones from the potential vorticity perspective. J Clim. 2019.
University Press; 2012. p. 582. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0461.1.
15. Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Keenlyside N. Will extra-tropical storms 38. Büeler D, Pfahl S. Potential vorticity diagnostics to quantify ef-
intensify in a warmer climate? J Clim. 2009;22:2276–301. fects of latent heating in extratropical cyclones. Part I:
16. Zappa, G. Regional climate impacts of future changes in the mid– Methodology J Atmos Sci. 2017;74(11):3567–90.
latitude atmospheric circulation: a storyline view. Curr Clim 39. O’Gorman PA. The effective static stability experienced by eddies
Change Rep. 2019. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00146-7. in a moist atmosphere Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.
17. Zappa G, Shaffrey LC, Hodges KI, Sansom PG, Stephenson DB. 2011;68:75-90
A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic 40. Booth JF, Wang S, Polvani L. Midlatitude storms in a moister
and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate world: lessons from idealized baroclinic life cycle experiments.
models. J Clim. 2013;26:5846–62. Clim Dynam. 2013;41:787–802.
18. Christensen JH, Krishna Kumar K, Aldrian E, An S-I, Cavalcanti 41. Tierney G, Posselt DJ, Booth JF. An examination of extratropical
IFA, Castro M de, et al. Climate phenomena and their relevance cyclone response to changes in baroclinicity and temperature in an
for future regional climate change. In: Climate Change 2013: The idealized environment. Clim Dyn. 2018;51(9–10):3829–46.
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the
42. Rantanen M, Räisänen J, Sinclair VA, Järvinen H. Sensitivity of
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
idealised baroclinic waves to mean atmospheric temperature and
Climate Change 2013.
meridional temperature gradient changes. Clim Dyn. 2019;52:
19. Eady ET. Long waves and cyclone waves. Tellus. 1949;1:33–52.
2703–19.
20. Charney JG. The dynamics of long waves in a baroclinic westerly
43. Kirshbaum DJ, Merlis TM, Gyakum JR, Mctaggart-Cowan R.
current. J Meteor. 1947;4:135–63.
Sensitivity of idealized moist baroclinic waves to environmental
21. Hoskins BJ, Valdes PJ. On the existence of storm tracks. J Atmos
temperature and moisture content. J Atmos Sci. 2018;75:337–60.
Sci. 1990;47:1854–64.
22. Nakamura H. Midwinter suppression of baroclinic wave activity 44. Yuval J, Kaspi Y. Eddy activity sensitivity to changes in the ver-
in the Pacific. J Atmos Sci. 1992;49:1629–42. tical structure of baroclinicity. J Atmos Sci. 2016;73(4):1709–26.
23. Schemm S, Schneider T. Eddy lifetime, number, and diffusivity 45. Booth JF, Polvani L, O’Gorman PA, Wang S. Effective stability in
and the suppression of eddy kinetic energy in midwinter. J Clim. a moist baroclinic wave. Atmos Sci Lett. 2015;16(1):56–62.
2018;31(14):5649–65. 46. Tamarin-Brodsky T, Hadas O. The asymmetry of vertical velocity in
24. Davis CA, Stoelinga MT, Kuo Y-H. The integrated effect of con- current and future climate. Geophys Res Lett. 2019;46(1):374–82.
densation in numerical simulations of extratropical cyclogenesis. 47. Pfahl S, O’Gorman P, Singh MS. Extratropical cyclones in ideal-
Mon Wea Rev. 1993;121:2309–30. ized simulations of changed climates. J Clim. 2015;28:9373–92.
25. Stoelinga MT. A potential vorticity-based study of the role of 48. Phibbs S, Toumi R. The dependence of precipitation and its foot-
diabatic heating and friction in a numerically simulated baroclinic print on atmospheric temperature in idealized extratropical cy-
cyclone. Mon Weather Rev. 1996;124(5):849–74. clones. J Geophys Res Atmos. 2016;121(15):8743–54.
26. Ahmadi-Givi F, Craig GC, Plant RS. The dynamics of a midlati- 49. Sinclair VA, Haapanala P, Räisänen J, Rantanen M. The structure
tude cyclone with very strong latent-heat release. Quart J Roy of extratropical cyclones in a warmer climate, Weather Clim.
Meteor Soc. 2004;130:295–323. Dynam. Discuss. In review, 2019. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-
27. Fink AH, Pohle S, Pinto JG, Knippertz P. Diagnosing the influ- 2019-2.
ence of diabatic processes on the explosive deepening of 50. Laîné A, Lapeyre G, Rivière G. A quasigeostrophic model for
extratropical cyclones. Geophys Res Lett. 2012;39. moist storm tracks. J. 2011;68:1306–22.
28. Gray SL, Dacre HF. Classifying dynamical forcing mechanisms 51. O’Gorman PA, Schneider T. Energy of midlatitude transient
using a climatology of extratropical cyclones. Quart J Roy Meteor eddies in idealized simulations of changed climates. J Clim.
Soc. 2006;132:1119–37. 2008;21(22):5797–806.
29. Davies HC. The quasigeostrophic omega equation: reappraisal,
52. Laliberté F, Zika J, Mudryk L, Kushner PJ, Kjellsson J, Döös K.
refinements, and relevance. Mon Weather Rev. 2015;143(1):3–25.
Atmospheric dynamics. Constrained work output of the moist
30. Azad R, Sorteberg A. A diagnosis of warm-core and cold-core
atmospheric heat engine in a warming climate. Science. 2015
extratropical cyclone development using the Zwack-Okossi equa-
Jan 30;347(6221):540–3.
tion. Atmos Sci Lett. 2009;10(4):220–5.
53. Büeler D, Pfahl S. Potential vorticity diagnostics to quantify ef-
31. Hoskins BJ, McIntyre ME, Robertson AW. On the use and signif-
fects of latent heating in extratropical cyclones. Part II: application
icance of isentropic potential vorticity maps. Quart J Roy Meteor
to idealized climate change simulations. J Atmos Sci. 2019;76:
Soc. 1985;111:877–946.
1885–1902. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0342.1.
32. Eliassen A, Kleinschmidt E. Dynamic meteorology, Handbuch der
Physik (Encyclopedia of Physics). Flügge S, editor. Springer- 54. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA. An overview of CMIP5 and
Verlag; 1957. 1–154 p. the experiment design. Bull Amer Meteor Soc. 2012;93:485–98.
33. Crezee B, Joos H, Wernli H. The microphysical building blocks of 55. Booth JF, Kwon Y-O, Ko S, Small RJ, Msadek R. Spatial patterns
low-level potential vorticity anomalies in an idealized and intensity of the surface storm tracks in CMIP5 models. J Clim.
extratropical cyclone. J Atmos Sci. 2017;74(5):1403–16. 2017;30(13):4965–81.
34. Quinting JF, Reeder MJ, Catto JL. The intensity and motion of 56. Chang EKM, Guo Y, Xia X, Zheng M. Storm-track activity in
hybrid cyclones in the Australian region in a composite potential IPCC AR4/CMIP3 model simulations. J Clim. 2013;26(1):246–
vorticity framework. Q J R Meteorol Soc. 2019;145(718):273–87. 60.
35. Dacre HF, Gray SL. Quantifying the climatological relationship 57. Chang EKM. CMIP5 projection of significant reduction in
between extratropical cyclone intensity and atmospheric precur- extratropical cyclone activity over North America. J Clim.
sors. Geophys Res Lett. 2013;40:2322–7. 2013;26:9903–22.
36. Čampa J, Wernli H. A PV perspective on the vertical structure of 58. Ulbrich U, Leckebusch GC, Pinto JG. Extra-tropical cyclones in
mature midlatitude cyclones in the northern hemisphere. J Atmos the present and future climate: a review. Theor Appl Clim.
Sci. 2012;69(2):725–40. 2009;96:117–31.
418 Curr Clim Change Rep (2019) 5:407–420

59. Yang M, Li X, Zuo R, Chen X, Wang L. Climatology and inter- 81. Li M, Woollings T, Hodges K, Masato G. Extratropical cyclones
annual variability of winter North Pacific Storm Track in CMIP5 in a warmer, moister climate: a recent Atlantic analogue. Geophys
models. Atmosphere (Basel). 2018;9(3). Res Lett. 2014;41(23):8594–601.
60. Zappa G, Hawcroft MK, Shaffrey L, Black E, Brayshaw DJ. 82. Ludwig P, Pinto JG, Reyers M, Gray SL. The role of anomalous
Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter SST and surface fluxes over the southeastern North Atlantic in the
Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn. explosive development of windstorm Xynthia. Quart J Roy
2015;45(7–8):1727–38. Meteor Soc. 2014;140:1729–41.
61. Catto JL, Shaffrey LC, Hodges KI. Can climate models capture 83. Browning KA. The sting at the end of the tail: damaging winds
the structure of extratropical cyclones? J Clim. 2010;23:1621–35. associated with extratropical cyclones. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc.
62. Govekar P, Jakob C, Catto JL. The relationship between clouds 2004;130:375–99.
and dynamics in Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones in 84. Martínez-Alvarado O, Gray SL, Hart NCG, Clark PA, Hodges K,
the real world and a climate model. J Geophys Res. 2014;119: Roberts MJ. Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with
6609–28. climate change. Environ Res Lett. 2018;13(4):044002.
63. Hawcroft MK, Dacre HF, Forbes R, Hodges KI, Shaffrey LC, 85. Chang EKM. Projected significant increase in the number of ex-
Stein T. Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the repre- treme extratropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. J Clim.
sentation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate 2017;30(13):4915–35.
model. Clim Dyn. 2017;48:2255–78. 86. Harvey BJ, Shaffrey LC, Woollings TJ. Equator-to-pole tempera-
64. Hawcroft MK, Shaffrey LC, Hodges KI, Dacre HF. Can climate ture differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the
models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical CMIP5 climate models. Clim Dyn. 2014;43(5):1171–82.
cyclones? Clim Dyn. 2016;47:679–95. 87. Zappa G. Regional climate impacts of future changes in the mid-
65. Catto JL, Jakob C, Nicholls N. A global evaluation of fronts and latitude circulation: a storylines view. Curr Clim Chang Reports.
precipitation in the ACCESS model. Aust Meteorol Ocean Soc J. 2019;In press.
2013;63:191–203. 88. Sanders F, Gyakum JR. Synoptic-dynamic climatology of the
66. Catto JL, Jakob C, Nicholls N. Can the CMIP5 models represent ``bomb. Mon Wea Rev. 1980;108:1589–606.
winter frontal precipitation? Geophys Res Lett. 2015;42:8596–
89. Seiler C, Zwiers FW, Hodges KI, Scinocca JF. How does dynam-
604.
ical downscaling affect model biases and future projections of
67. Naud CM, Booth JF, Del Genio AD. Evaluation of ERA-interim explosive extratropical cyclones along North America’s Atlantic
and MERRA cloudiness in the Southern Ocean. J Clim. coast? Clim Dyn. 2018;50:677–92.
2014;27(5):2109–24.
90. Willison J, Robinson WA, Lackmann GM. North Atlantic storm-
68. Tamarin-Brodsky T, Kaspi Y. Enhanced poleward propagation of
track sensitivity to warming increases with model resolution. J
storms under climate change. Nat Geosci. 2017;10(12):908–13.
Clim. 2015;28(11):4513–24.
69. Hoskins BJ, Hodges KI. The annual cycle of northern hemisphere
91. Lombardo K, Colle BA, Zhang Z. Evaluation of historical and
storm tracks. Part II: Regional Detail J Clim. 2019;32(6):1761–75.
future cool season precipitation over the eastern United States
70. Hoskins BJ, Hodges KI. The annual cycle of northern hemisphere
and Western Atlantic storm track using CMIP5 models. J Clim.
storm tracks. Part I: Seasons J Clim. 2019;32(6):1743–60.
2015;28(2):451–67.
71. Prichard B. The great storm of 16 October 1987. Weather.
92. Yettella V, Kay JE. How will precipitation change in extratropical
2012;67(10):255–60.
cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condi-
72. Thomas BC, Martin JE. A synoptic climatology and composite anal-
tion climate model ensemble. Clim Dyn. 2017;49(5–6):1765–81.
ysis of the Alberta clipper. Weather Forecast. 2007;22(2):315–33.
93. Hawcroft M, Walsh E, Hodges K, Zappa G. Significantly in-
73. Hoskins BJ, Hodges KI. A new perspective on southern hemi-
creased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North
sphere storm tracks. J Clim. 2005;18:4108–29.
America from extratropical cyclones. Environ Res Lett.
74. Newton CW. Associations between twice-yearly oscillations of
2018;13(12).
the North Pacific cyclone track and upper-tropospheric circula-
94. Zhang Z, Colle BA. Impact of dynamically downscaling two
tions over the eastern hemisphere. Mon Weather Rev.
CMIP5 models on the historical and future changes in winter
2004;132(1):348–67.
extratropical cyclones along the East Coast of North America. J
75. Trigo IF, Davies TD, Bigg GR. Objective climatology of cyclones
Clim. 2018;31(20):8499–525.
in the Mediterranean region. J Clim. 1999;12(6):1685–96.
95. Michaelis AC, Willison J, Lackmann GM, Robinson WA.
76. Ren X, Yang X, Chu C. Seasonal variations of the synoptic-scale
Changes in winter North Atlantic extratropical cyclones in high-
transient Eddy activity and polar front jet over East Asia. J Clim.
resolution regional pseudo–global warming simulations. J Clim.
2010;23(12):3222–33.
2017;30(17):6905–25.
77. Colle BA, Zhang Z, Lombardo KA, Chang E, Liu P, Zhang M.
Historical evaluation and future prediction of Eastern North 96. Bishop DA, Williams AP, Seager R. Increased fall precipitation in
American and Western Atlantic extratropical cyclones in the the Southeastern United States driven by higher-intensity, frontal
CMIP5 models during the cool season. J Clim. 2013;26:6882– precipitation. Geophys Res Lett. 2019;46:8300–8309. https://doi.
903. org/10.1029/2019GL083177.
78. Haarsma RJ, Roberts MJ, Vidale PL, Senior CA, Bellucci A, Bao 97. Chang EKM, Zheng C, Lanigan P, Yau AMW, Neelin JD.
Q, et al. High resolution model Intercomparison project Significant modulation of variability and projected change in
(HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6. Geosci Model Dev. 2016;9(11): California winter precipitation by extratropical cyclone activity.
4185–208. Geophys Res Lett. 2015;42:5983–91.
79. Seiler C, Zwiers FW. How will climate change affect explosive 98. Osburn L, Keay K, Catto JL. Projected change in wintertime pre-
cyclones in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere? Clim cipitation in California using projected changes in extratropical
Dyn. 2016;46:3633–44. cyclone activity. J Clim. 2018;31:3451–66.
80. Chang E. Projected change in Northern Hemisphere winter cy- 99. Suriano ZJ, Leathers DJ, Hall DK, Frei A. Contribution of snow-
clones with associated extreme winds. J Clim. 2018;31(16): fall from diverse synoptic conditions in the Catskill/Delaware wa-
6527–42. tershed of New York state. Int J Climatol. 2019;39(8):3608–18.
Curr Clim Change Rep (2019) 5:407–420 419

100. Krasting JP, Broccoli AJ, Dixon KW, Lanzante JR, Krasting JP, 121. Haarsma RJ, Hazeleger W, Severijns C, de Vries H, Sterl A,
Broccoli AJ, et al. Future changes in northern hemisphere snow- Bintanja R, et al. More hurricanes to hit western Europe due to
fall. J Clim. 2013;26(20):7813–28. global warming. Geophys Res Lett. 2013;40(9):1783–8.
101. Willison J, Robinson WA, Lackmann GM. The importance of 122. Baatsen M, Haarsma RJ, Van Delden AJ, de Vries H. Severe
resolving mesoscale latent heating in the North Atlantic storm autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic
track. J Atmos Sci. 2013;70:2234–50. Ocean. Clim Dyn. 2015;45(3):949–64.
102. Marciano CG, Lackmann GM, Robinson WA. Changes in U.S. 123. Liu M, Vecchi GA, Smith JA, Murakami H. The present-day sim-
East Coast cyclone dynamics with climate change. J Clim. ulation and twenty-first-century projection of the climatology of
2015;28(2):468–84. extratropical transition in the North Atlantic. J Clim. 2017;30(8):
103. Tamarin T, Kaspi Y. The poleward motion of extratropical cy- 2739–56.
clones from a potential Vorticity tendency analysis. J Atmos Sci. 124. Lackmann GM. Hurricane Sandy before 1900 and after 2100. Bull
2016;73(4):1687–707. Am Meteorol Soc. 2015;96(4):547–60.
104. Graff LS, Lacasce JH. Changes in cyclone characteristics in re- 125. da Rocha RP, Reboita MS, Gozzo LF, Dutra LMM, de Jesus EM.
sponse to modified SSTs. J Clim. 2014;27:4273–95. Subtropical cyclones over the oceanic basins: a review. Ann N Y
105. Catto JL, Nicholls N, Jakob C, Shelton KL. Atmospheric fronts in Acad Sci. 2019;1436(1):138–56.
current and future climates. Geophys Res Lett. 2014;41:7642–50. 126. Guishard MP, Evans JL, Hart RE. Atlantic subtropical storms. Part
106. Schemm S, Sprenger M, Martius O, Wernli H, Zimmer M. II: Climatology J Clim. 2009;22:3574–94.
Increase in the number of extremely strong fronts over Europe? 127. Pezza AB, Simmonds I. The first South Atlantic hurricane: un-
A study based on ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979-2014). Geophys precedented blocking, low shear and climate change. Geophys
Res Lett. 2017;44(1):553–61. Res Lett. 2005;32(15).
107. Bjerknes J, Solberg H. Life cycle of cyclones and the polar front 128. Evans JL, Braun A. A climatology of subtropical cyclones in the
theory of atmospheric circulation. Geophys Publ. 1922;3:1–18. South Atlantic. J Clim. 2012;25(21):7328–40.
108. Pinto JG, Gómara I, Masato G, Dacre HF, Woollings T, Caballero 129. Evans JL, Guishard MP. Atlantic subtropical storms. Part I: diag-
R. Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of nostic criteria and composite analysis. Mon Wea Rev. 2009;137:
extratropical cyclones. J Geophys Res. 2014;119:13704–19. 2065–80.
109. Benedict JJ, Lee S, Feldstein SB. Synoptic view of the North 130. Bentley AM, Keyser D, Bosart LF. A dynamically based climatol-
Atlantic oscillation. J Atmos Sci. 2004;61(2):121–44. ogy of subtropical cyclones that undergo tropical transition in the
110. Parker DJ. Secondary frontal waves in the North Atlantic region: a North Atlantic Basin. Mon Weather Rev. 2016;144(5):2049–68.
dynamical perspective of current ideas. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc. 131. Gaertner MA, Jacob D, Gil V, Domínguez M, Padorno E, Sánchez
1998;124:829–56. E, et al. Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate
111. Economou T, Stephenson DB, Pinto JG, Shaffrey LC, Zappa G. change simulations. Geophys Res Lett. 2007;34(14).
Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensem- 132. Romero R, Emanuel K. Medicane risk in a changing climate. J
ble of historical and future simulations. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc. Geophys Res Atmos. 2013;118(12):5992–6001.
2015;141:3076–87. 133. Cavicchia L, von Storch H, Gualdi S. Mediterranean tropical-like
112. Mailier PJ, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT, Hodges KI. Serial clus- cyclones in present and future climate. J Clim. 2014;27(19):7493–
tering of extratropical cyclones. Mon Wea Rev. 2006;134:2224– 501.
40. 134. Walsh K, Giorgi F, Coppola E. Mediterranean warm-core cyclones
113. Vitolo R, Stephenson DB, Cook IM, Mitchell-Wallace K. Serial in a warmer world. Clim Dyn. 2014 Feb;42(3):1053–66.
clustering of intense European storms. Meteorol Zeitschrift. 135. Romera R, Gaertner MÁ, Sánchez E, Domínguez M, González-
2009;18(4):411–24. Alemán JJ, Miglietta MM. Climate change projections of
114. Pinto JG, Bellenbaum N, Karremann MK, Della-Marta PM. Serial medicanes with a large multi-model ensemble of regional climate
clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and models. Glob Planet Change. 2017;151:134–43.
Europe under recent and future climate conditions. J Geophys 136. Tous M, Zappa G, Romero R, Shaffrey L, Vidale PL. Projected
Res. 2013;118:12,412–476,485. changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution
115. Barnes EA, Hartmann DL. Detection of Rossby wave breaking global climate model. Clim Dyn. 2016 Sep;47(5):1913–24.
and its response to shifts of the midlatitude jet with climate change. 137. Gaertner MÁ, González-Alemán JJ, Romera R, Domínguez M,
J Geophys Res. 2012;117. Gil V, Sánchez E, et al. Simulation of medicanes over the
116. Priestley MDK, Dacre HF, Shaffrey LC, Hodges KI, Pinto JG. The Mediterranean Sea in a regional climate model ensemble: impact
role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal of ocean–atmosphere coupling and increased resolution. Clim
losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high- Dyn. 2018 Aug;51(3):1041–57.
resolution global climate model data. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci. 138. Nissen KM, Leckebusch GC, Pinto JG, Ulbrich U. Mediterranean
2018;18(11):2991–3006. cyclones and windstorms in a changing climate. Reg Environ
117. Bieli M, Camargo SJ, Sobel AH, Evans JL, Hall T, Bieli M, et al. Chang. 2014;14(5):1873–90.
A global climatology of extratropical transition Part I: character- 139. González-Alemán JJ, Pascale S, Gutierrez-Fernandez J,
istics across basins. J Clim. 2019;32:3557–3582.https://doi.org/ Murakami H, Gaertner MA, Vecchi GA. Potential increase in
10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0518.1. hazard from Mediterranean hurricane activity with global
118. Zarzycki CM, Thatcher DR, Jablonowski C. Objective tropical warming. Geophys Res Lett. 2019;46(3):1754–64.
cyclone extratropical transition detection in high-resolution reanal- 140. Maheras P, Flocas HA, Patrikas I, Anagnostopoulou C. A 40 year
ysis and climate model data. J Adv Model Earth Syst. 2017;9(1): objective climatology of surface cyclones in the Mediterranean
130–48. region: spatial and temporal distribution. Int J Climatol.
119. Hart RE. A cyclone phase space derived from thermal wind and 2001;21(1):109–30.
thermal asymmetry. Mon Wea Rev. 2003;131:585–616. 141. Screen JA, Bracegirdle TJ, Simmonds I. Polar climate change as
120. Bieli M, Camargo SJ, Sobel AH, Evans JL, Hall T, Bieli M, et al. manifest in atmospheric circulation. Curr Clim Chang Reports.
A global climatology of extratropical transition Part II: statistical 2018;4(4):383–95.
performance of the cyclone phase space. J Clim. 2019;32:3583– 142. Sepp M, Jaagus J. Changes in the activity and tracks of Arctic
3597. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0052.1. cyclones. Clim Chang. 2011;105(3–4):577–95.
420 Curr Clim Change Rep (2019) 5:407–420

143. Rinke A, Maturilli M, Graham RM, Matthes H, Handorf D, Cohen 159. Orton P, Lin N, Gornitz V, Colle B, Booth J, Feng K, et al. New
L, et al. Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: wintertime variabil- York City panel on climate change 2019 report chapter 4: coastal
ity and trends. Environ Res Lett. 2017;12(9):094006. flooding. Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2019;1439(1):95–114.
144. Karremann MK, Pinto JG, Reyers M, Klawa M. Return periods of 160. Roberts KJ, Colle BA, Korfe N. Impact of simulated twenty-first-
losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing century changes in extratropical cyclones on coastal flooding at
climate. Environ Res Lett. 2014;9(12):124016. the battery, New York City. J Appl Meteorol Climatol. 2017;56(2):
145. Mölter T, Schindler D, Albrecht A, Kohnle U, Mölter T, Schindler D, 415–32.
et al. Review on the projections of future storminess over the North 161. Lin N, Marsooli R, Colle BA. Storm surge return levels induced
Atlantic European region. Atmosphere (Basel). 2016;7(4):60. by mid-to-late-twenty-first-century extratropical cyclones in the
146. Ranson M, Kousky C, Ruth M, Jantarasami L, Crimmins A, northeastern United States. Clim Chang. 2019;2:1–16.
Tarquinio L. Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under 162. Lin N, Kopp RE, Horton BP, Donnelly JP. Hurricane Sandy’s
climate change. Clim Chang. 2014;127:227–41. flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100. Proc Natl
147. Quinting JF, Catto JL, Reeder MJ. Synoptic climatology of hybrid Acad Sci U S A. 2016;113(43):12071–5.
cyclones in the Australian region. Q J R Meteorol Soc. 163. Harley MD, Turner IL, Kinsela MA, Middleton JH, Mumford PJ,
2019;145(718):288–302. Splinter KD, et al. Extreme coastal erosion enhanced by anoma-
148. Kundzewicz ZW, Kanae S, Seneviratne SI, Handmer J, Nicholls lous extratropical storm wave direction. Sci Rep. 2017;7(1):6033.
N, Peduzzi P, et al. Flood risk and climate change: global and
164. Shimura T, Mori N, Hemer MA. Variability and future decreases
regional perspectives. Hydrol Sci J. 2014;59(1):1–28.
in winter wave heights in the Western North Pacific. Geophys Res
149. Watts G, Battarbee RW, Bloomfield JP, Crossman J, Daccache A,
Lett. 2016;43(6):2716–22.
Durance I, et al. Climate change and water in the UK – past
changes and future prospects. Prog Phys Geogr Earth Environ. 165. Wang XL, Feng Y, Swail VR. Changes in global ocean wave
2015;39(1):6–28. heights as projected using multimodel CMIP5 simulations.
150. Muchan K, Lewis M, Hannaford J, Parry S. The winter storms of Geophys Res Lett. 2014;41(3):1026–34.
2013/2014 in the UK: hydrological responses and impacts. 166. Mentaschi L, Vousdoukas MI, Voukouvalas E, Dosio A, Feyen L.
Weather. 2015;70(2):55–61. Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered
151. Priestley MDK, Pinto JG, Dacre HF, Shaffrey LC. The role of by intensified teleconnection patterns. Geophys Res Lett.
cyclone clustering during the stormy winter of 2013/2014. 2017;44(5):2416–26.
Weather. 2017;72(7):187–92. 167. Markina MY, Studholme JHP, Gulev SK. Ocean wind wave cli-
152. PWC. PWC 2015 PWC http://pwc.blogs.com/press_room/2015/ mate responses to wintertime North Atlantic atmospheric transient
12/updated-estimates-on-cost-of-storm-desmond-pwc.html eddies and low-frequency flow. J Clim. 2019;32;5619–5638.
(Accessed: 18 April 2019). 2015. 168. Semedo A, Weisse R, Behrens A, Sterl A, Bengtsson L, Günther
153. Lavers DA, Allan RP, Villarini G, Lloyd-Hughes B, Brayshaw DJ, H, et al. Projection of global wave climate change toward the end
Wade AJ. Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implica- of the twenty-first century. J Clim. 2013;26(21):8269–88.
tions for winter flooding in Britain. Environ Res Lett. 2013;8(3): 169. Catto JL. Extratropical cyclone classification and its use in climate
034010. studies. Rev Geophys. 2016;54.
154. Espinoza V, Waliser DE, Guan B, Lavers DA, Ralph FM. Global 170. Catto JL. A new method to objectively classify extratropical cy-
analysis of climate change projection effects on atmospheric riv- clones for climate studies: testing in the Southwest Pacific region.
ers. Geophys Res Lett. 2018;45(9):4299–308. J Clim. 2018;31:4683–704.
155. Colle BA, Buonaiuto F, Bowman MJ, Wilson RE, Flood R, 171. Maher P, Gerber EP, Medeiros B, Merlis TM, Sherwood S,
Hunter R, et al. New York City’s vulnerability to coastal flooding. Sheshadri A, et al. Model hierarchies for understanding atmo-
Bull Am Meteorol Soc. 2008;89(6):829–42. spheric circulation. Rev Geophys. 2019;57(2). https://doi.org/10.
156. Smith AB, Katz RW. US billion-dollar weather and climate disas- 1029/2018RG000607.
ters: data sources, trends, accuracy and biases. Nat Hazards. 172. Charlton-Perez AJ, Vukadinovic Greetham D, Hemingway R.
2013;67(2):387–410. Storm naming and forecast communication: a case study of
157. Colle BA, Booth JF, Chang EKM. A review of historical and Storm Doris. Meteorol Appl. 2019;26:682–697. https://doi.org/
future changes of extratropical cyclones and associated impacts 10.1002/met.1794.
along the US East Coast. Curr Clim Chang Rep. 2015;1:125–43.
158. Colle BA, Rojowsky K, Buonaito F. New York City storm surges:
climatology and an analysis of the wind and cyclone evolution. J Publisher’s Note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdic-
Appl Meteorol Climatol. 2010;49(1):85–100. tional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.