MATHEMATICS ADVANCED

INCORPORATING EXTENSION 1
(YEAR 11 COURSE)

Topic summary and exercises:

With references to

A X1 Probability

Name: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Initial version by H. Lam, October 2019. Last updated September 4, 2020.
Various corrections by students & members of the Department of Mathematics at Normanhurst Boys High School.

Acknowledgements Pictograms in this document are a derivative of the work originally by Freepik at
http://www.flaticon.com, used under CC BY 2.0.

Symbols used Syllabus outcomes addressed

! Beware! Heed warning. MA11-7 uses concepts and techniques from probability to
present and interpret data and solve problems in a
F Provided on NESA Reference Sheet variety of contexts, including the use of probability
distributions
M Facts/formulae to memorise.
Syllabus subtopics
A Mathematics Advanced content.
MA-S1 (1.1) Probability and Discrete Probability
X1 Mathematics Extension 1 content. Distributions (Probability and Venn Diagrams)

L Literacy: note new word/phrase.

N Further reading/exercises to enrich your understanding

and application of this topic.

U Facts/formulae to understand, as opposed to blatant

memorisation.

N the set of natural numbers

Z the set of integers

Q the set of rational numbers

R the set of real numbers

∀ for all

Gentle reminder
• For a thorough understanding of the topic, every question in this handout is to
be completed!
• Additional questions from CambridgeMATHS Year 11 Extension 1
(Pender, Sadler, Ward, Dorofaeff, & Shea, 2019b) or CambridgeMATHS
Year 11 Advanced (Pender, Sadler, Ward, Dorofaeff, & Shea, 2019a) will be
completed at the discretion of your teacher.
• Remember to copy the question into your exercise book!
Contents

1 Language of probability 4
1.1 Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.1.1 Spaces and sets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.1.2 Equally likely outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.1.3 Impossible and Certain Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.1.4 Complementary events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.2 Experimental probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.3 Invalid arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

2 Pictorial representation of sample spaces 11

2.1 Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2 Tree diagrams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.3 Mixed bag . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

3 Venn Diagrams 18
3.1 Set notation and definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.1.1 Symbols used . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.1.2 Size (Cardinality) of a set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3.1.3 Equal sets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3.1.4 Universal set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3.1.5 Counting rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3.2 Addition Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.2.1 Mutually exclusive events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.2.2 Not mutually exclusive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

4 Multistage events 26
4.1 Independent events: product rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
4.2 Dependent events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

5 Further tree diagrams 30

5.1 Regular balanced trees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
5.2 Early terminating trees & multidisciplinary problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

6 Conditional Probability 37
6.1 Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
6.2 Revisiting independent events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

References 48

3
Section 1

Language of probability

1.1 Definitions
 Learning Goal(s)
² Knowledge 3 Skills ­ Understanding
Probability terminology Read terminology associated Boundary conditions for
with probability probability
 By the end of this section am I able to:
13.1 Understand and use the concepts and language associated with theoretical probability, relative
frequency and the probability scale.
13.2 Understand the definition of complementary events, and the result P (E) = 1 − P (E)
13.3 Understand the definition of experimental probability as a measure of relative frequency.

1.1.1 Spaces and sets

Definition 1

L The . . . . . sample
. . . . . . . . . . . . space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

Example When throwing a single six sided die, the sample space is

S={ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
..................................

Definition 2

L The . . . . event
. . . . . . . . . . space is the set of favourable/desired outcomes for an
experiment.

4
Language of probability – Definitions 5

Example The . . . .event

. . . . . . . . . space of scoring ‘at least 3’ when throwing a single six sided
die:

E={ 3, 4, 5, 6 }
.......................

Theorem 1

The . . . .event
. . . . . . . . . space is always a subset of the . . . . . sample
. . . . . . . . . . . . space, i.e.
E⊆S

Draw a Venn diagram of the above situation.

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

6 Language of probability – Definitions

Definition 3
The probability of an event E occurring:
|E|
P (E) =
|S|
where
• |E| is size of the . . . .event
. . . . . . . . . space
• |S| is the size of the . . . . . .sample
. . . . . . . . . . . . space

1.1.2 Equally likely outcomes

Definition 4
L An experiment has equally likely outcomes if one and only one of the n possibilities
will occur.

Draw a table of outcomes for roll of one die.

Write a sentence describing an experiment with equally likely outcomes, and draw a table
of outcomes.

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Language of probability – Definitions 7

1.1.3 Impossible and Certain Events

Write a sentence describing an experiment with an impossible event involving rolling one
die or drawing a card from a deck of playing cards.

Write a sentence describing an experiment with a certain event involving rolling one dice
or drawing a card from a deck of playing cards.

Theorem 2
Conclusion All other probabilities:

.0. ≤ P (E) ≤ .1.

(This has been a fact that has been taken for granted)

1.1.4 Complementary events

• Often easier to find the probability that an event does not occur than the probability
that it does occur

Definition 5
The complement of an event E occurring is denoted E.
(Other texts: E c , E ′ )

Important note
L When the word/phrase not or at least once appears in problems, it is more than
likely channelling you to use the complementary situation, i.e.

P (E) = 1 − P (E)

Be careful with counting - in Extension 1 problems it may not be so straightforward.

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

8 Language of probability – Definitions

Example 1
[2014 2U HSC Q10] Three runners compete in a race. The probabilities that the
1 1 2
three runners finish the race in under 10 seconds are , and , respectively.
4 6 5
What is the probability that at least one of the three runners will finish the race in
under 10 seconds?
1 37 3 5
(A) (B) (C) (D)
60 60 8 8

Important note
The multiplication principle P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B) was used in this example. It
applies only to . . . . . . . . .independent
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .event
......... .

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Language of probability – Experimental probability 9

1.2 Experimental probability

• Also known as the . . . . . relative

............. . . . . . . .frequency
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . of an event occurring.
Example 2
A drawing pin was thrown 400 times and fell point-up 362 times.
(a) What were the relative frequencies of the drawing pin falling point-up, and of
falling point-down?
(b) What probability does this experiment suggest for the result ‘point-up’ ?
(c) A machine later repeated the experiment 1 000 000 times, and the pin fell
point-up 916 203 times.
Does this change your estimate in part (b)?

Example 3
[Ex 12A Q19] Fifty tagged fish were released into a dam known to contain fish.
Later, a sample of 30 fish was netted from this dam, of which eight were found to be
tagged.

Estimate the total number of fish in the dam just prior to the sample of 30 being
removed.

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

10 Language of probability – Invalid arguments

Example 4
[2011 2U HSC Q1] A batch of 800 items is examined. The probability that an
item from this batch is defective is 0.02.

How many items from this batch are defective?

1.3 Invalid arguments

Consider the following statement:

This mathematics class has 24 students. The probability at the end of Year 12
1
that a student will be Rank 1 in the class is 24

Identify the fallacy:

• There are 24 possible ranks within this class is correct.

• BUT why is each student . . . . . .equally

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .likely
. . . . . . . . . to be ranked first?

Further exercises
A Ex 10A X1 Ex 12A
• Even numbered questions
• Even numbered questions
• Q21, 22

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Section 2

Pictorial representation of sample spaces

 Learning Goal(s)
² Knowledge 3 Skills ­ Understanding
What arrays, dot diagrams and Use these types of diagrams to When to use each type of
tree diagrams are solve problems diagram
 By the end of this section am I able to:
13.4 Use arrays, dot diagrams and tree diagrams to determine the outcomes and probabilities for
multi-stage experiments.

Important note

. . . .Draw
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . picture
.............!

2.1 Table
✎ Fill in the spaces
• Use a table when there are a small number of independent events with a small
sample space. (|S| < 36)

• Usual scenario: . . two

...... . . . dice
. . . . . . . , or . . one
...... . . .die
.... . . . . .rolled
.........
. . . .twice
......... )

Example 5
A die is thrown twice. Find the probability that:
(a) the pair is a double
(b) at least one number is four
(c) both numbers are greater than four
(d) both numbers are even
(e) the sum of the two numbers is six
(f) the sum is at most four

11
12 Pictorial representation of sample spaces – Table

Example 6
[2018 2U HSC Q16] A game involves rolling two six-sided dice, followed by rolling
a third six-sided die. To win the game, the number rolled on the third die must lie
between the two numbers rolled previously. For example, if the first two dice show 1
and 4, the game can only be won by rolling a 2 or 3 with the third die.
(i) What is the probability that a player has no chance of winning before 2
rolling the third die?
(ii) What is the probability that a player wins the game? 2

4 5
Answer: (i) 9
(ii) 27

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Pictorial representation of sample spaces – Tree diagrams 13

2.2 Tree diagrams

✎ Fill in the spaces
• Use a tree diagram when there are

– . . . . . . . .Dependent
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . events where after the first stage, the sample
space changes.
– . . . . . . . . . Independent
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . events with a small number (2-3) outcomes
per stage.

• Easy to calculate the . . . . . . . . . . . .complementary

..........................
. . . . . . .situation
............... .

Important note

! If a stage contains more than . . . .three

. . . . . . . . . outcomes, consider how to simplify
the tree.
! Be careful with . . . . . . . . imbalanced . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . trees where some branches of a tree
. . . . . . . terminate
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .early
........ .
! Sometimes it may be easier to redraw a tree based on results from previous
trees.

Label the tree with the following words/phrases

Outcome Stage Probability Branch

1 A
3

A
1
3 2
3 A

2
1 A
3
3

A
2
3 A

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

14 Pictorial representation of sample spaces – Tree diagrams

Example 7
[2014 CSSA 2U Q14] Xavier is playing a variation of Chess called Makruk online.
Each game is graded and Xavier begins with a 0.6 probability of winning and a 0.3
probability of losing.

At the end of each game, players receive points.

If Xavier wins he receives 5 points. If he loses he receives 2 points and a draw will
result in Xavier receiving 3 points.
(i) What is the probability that Xavier’s first game ends in a draw? 1
In the next game, after grading has occurred, Xavier now has a 0.4 probability of
winning and a 0.4 probability of losing. Find the probability that after two games:
(ii) Xavier receives ten points 2
(iii) Xavier receives five points or less 2

1 12 11
Answer: (i) 10
(ii) 50
(iii) 50

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Pictorial representation of sample spaces – Tree diagrams 15

Example 8
[2017 VCE Mathematical Methods Paper 1 Q5] For Jac to log on to a computer
successfully, Jac must type the correct password. Unfortunately, Jac has forgotten
the password. If Jac types the wrong password, Jac can make another attempt. The
2
probability of success on any attempt is . Assume that the result of each attempt
5
is independent of the result of any other attempt. A maximum of three attempts can
be made.
(a) What is the probability that Jac does not log on to the computer 1
successfully?
(b) Calculate the probability that Jac logs on to the computer successfully. 1
a
Express your answer in the form , where a and b ∈ Z+ .
b
(c) Calculate the probability that Jac logs on to the computer successfully 2
on the second or on the third attempt. Express your answer in the
c
form , where c and d ∈ Z+ .
d
27 98 48
Answer: (a) 125
(b) 125
(c) 125

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

16 Pictorial representation of sample spaces – Tree diagrams

Example 9
! Jayne has a bag containing 5 strawberry lollies and 3 honey lollies while Laura
has another bag containing 4 strawberry lollies and 5 lemon lollies. Each of these
two girls is to select at random 3 lollies from their own bag, without replacement.

What is the probability that only one of the two girls will select at least one strawberry
lolly from her bag? 13
Answer: 98

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Pictorial representation of sample spaces – Mixed bag 17

2.3 Mixed bag

• Some questions may require both tools to be used.

Example 10
[1998 2U HSC Q10] A game is played in which two coloured dice are thrown once.
The six faces of the blue die are numbered 4, 6, 8, 9, 10 and 12. The six faces of the
pink die are numbered 2, 3, 5, 7, 11 and 13. The player wins if the number on the
pink die is larger than the number on the blue die.
(i) By drawing up a table of possible outcomes, or otherwise, calculate the 3
probability of the player winning a game.
(ii) Calculate the probability that the player wins at least once in two 2
successive games.
7 203
Answer: (i) 18
(ii) 324

Further exercises
A Ex 10B X1 Ex 12B
• Even numbered questions
• Even numbered questions

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

Section 3

Venn Diagrams

 Learning Goal(s)
² Knowledge 3 Skills ­ Understanding
What set notation and Venn Use set notation and Venn When to use Venn diagrams to
diagrams are diagrams as well as associated solve problems
rules to solve problems
 By the end of this section am I able to:
13.6 Use set notation for describing sets
13.7 Use Venn diagrams, set language and notation
13.8 Understand the counting rule
13.9 Establish and use the rules

P (A) = 1 − P (A) P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

13.10 Observe that for mutually exclusive events,

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)

History

Venn diagrams are due to John Venn (1834-1923),

is a diagram that shows all possible logical relations
between a finite collection of different sets.

A∩B

A B

Image: Wikipedia

18
Venn Diagrams – Set notation and definitions 19

3.1 Set notation and definitions

3.1.1 Symbols used
Definition 6
Set notation (read left-to-right)
• ∈: belongs to the . . .set
.... . .of. . .
• ∩: and (more formally: . . . . . . . . intersection
.................... )

• ∪: or (more formally: . . . . union

.......... )

• A ⊂ B: A is a . . . . .subset
. . . . . . . . . . . of B

• A ⊇ B: A is a . . . . . .superset
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .or
... . . . .equal
. . . . . . . . . . .to
. . . B.
• ∅: empty set. A set with no elements in it.

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

20 Venn Diagrams – Set notation and definitions

3.1.2 Size (Cardinality) of a set

Definition 7
The size of a set A is given the symbol |A|.

Example 11
If
• A = {all multiples of 3 from 3 to 50 inclusive}
• B = {all multiples of 4 from 4 to 65 inclusive}
Find
|A ∩ B|

3.1.3 Equal sets

Definition 8
Two sets A and B are equal iff the sets have identical elements and:

|A| = |B|
...................

Neither order nor repetition matter.

3.1.4 Universal set

Definition 9
A universal set is the set of everything under discussion in a particular situation.

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Venn Diagrams – Set notation and definitions 21

Example 12
Let the universal set be U = {whole numbers less than 20} and let
• A = {squares less than 20}
• B = {even numbers less than 20}
• C = {odd squares less than 20}

(a) Draw A and C on a Venn diagram, (d) Shade A ∪ B on a Venn diagram,

and place the numbers in the and place the numbers in the
correct regions. correct regions.

A C A B

(b) Draw B and C on a Venn diagram,

and place the numbers in the (e) Shade (A ∩ B) ∪ C on a Venn
correct regions. diagram, and place the numbers in
the correct regions.

B C

A B

(c) Shade A ∩ B on a Venn diagram,

and place the numbers in the
correct regions. C

A B

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

22 Venn Diagrams – Set notation and definitions

3.1.5 Counting rule

Theorem 3
For two sets A and B which are not disjoint,

|A ∪ B| = |A| + |B| − |A ∩ B|
.........................................

A B

i.e. take out one instance of the duplicated values.

Theorem 4
For three sets A, B and C which are not disjoint,

|A ∪ B ∪ C| = |A| + |B| + |C|

...............................

− |A ∩ B| − |A ∩ C| − |B ∩ C|
.................................................................

+ |A ∩ B ∩ C|
..............................

A B

Further exercises
A Ex 10C X1 Ex 12C
• Q9-18
• Q9-22

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Venn Diagrams – Addition Rule 23

3.2 Addition Rule

3.2.1 Mutually exclusive events
Theorem 5
If A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)

Draw a Venn Diagram representing this situation.

List some other events which are mutually exclusive.

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

24 Venn Diagrams – Addition Rule

3.2.2 Not mutually exclusive

Theorem 6
If A and B are two events, then

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

Draw a Venn Diagram representing this situation.

Example 13
[2014 CSSA 2U Q3] In a class of 30 girls, 13 are dancers and 23 are gymnasts. If
7 girls do both dance and gymnastics, what is the probability that a girl chosen at
random does neither dance nor gymnastics?
1 7 1 8
(A) (B) (C) (D)
5 30 30 15

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Venn Diagrams – Addition Rule 25

Example 14
[1996 2U HSC Q8] Students studying at least one of the languages, French and
Japanese, attend a meeting. Of the 28 students present, 18 study French and 22
study Japanese.
(i) What is the probability that a randomly chosen student studies French? 1
(ii) What is the probability that two randomly chosen students both study 2
French?
(iii) What is the probability that a randomly chosen student studies both 2
languages?

Further exercises
A Ex 10D X1 Ex 12D
• Q3-13
• Q7-13

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

Section 4

Multistage events

 Learning Goal(s)
² Knowledge 3 Skills ­ Understanding
What multistage events are Use the multiplication rule How to identify multistage
and tree diagrams to solve problems
multistage problems
 By the end of this section am I able to:
13.11 Understand the concept of multi-stage experiments.
13.12 Use the multiplication law P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B) for independent events A and B and recognise
the symmetry of independence in simple probability situations.
13.13 Construct probability tree diagrams

4.1 Independent events: product rule

Theorem 7
The product rule for an experiment with A1 , A2 , . . . , An as events:

P (A1 A2 A3 · · · An ) = P (A ) × P (A ) × · · · × P (A )
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1. . . . . . . . . . 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Important note
Be careful with your notation. Do not invent your own symbols!

Example 15
[1998 2U HSC Q1] A coin is tossed three times. What is the probability that
‘heads’ appears every time?

26
Multistage events – Independent events: product rule 27

Example 16
[2008 2U HSC Q7] Xena and Gabrielle compete in a series of games. The series
finishes when one player has won two games. In any game, the probability that Xena
2 1
wins is and the probability that Gabrielle wins is .
3 3
Part of a tree diagram for this series of games is shown.
First Second Third
game game game

X
2
3 X

1 G
3

(i) Complete the tree diagram showing the possible outcomes. 1

(ii) What is the probability that Gabrielle wins the series? 2
(iii) What is the probability that three games are played in the series? 2

7 4
Answer: i. Show on diagram ii. 27
iii. 9

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

28 Multistage events – Dependent events

4.2 Dependent events

Important note

The . . . . .sample
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . space
. . . . . . . . . . and . . . .event
. . . . . . . . . . . . .space
. . . . . . . . . will almost
certainly change when proceeding from one stage to another.

Example 17
[2014 2U Q12] A packet of lollies contains 5 red lollies and 14 green lollies. Two
lollies are selected at random without replacement.
(i) Draw a tree diagram to show the possible outcomes. Include the 2
probability on each branch.
(ii) What is the probability that the two lollies are of different colours? 1

70
Answer: 171

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Multistage events – Dependent events 29

Example 18
[2011 2U HSC Q5] Kim has three red shirts and two yellow shirts. On each of
the three days, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, she selects one shirt at random to
wear. Kim wears each shirt that she selects only once.
(i) What is the probability that Kim wears a red shirt on Monday? 1
(ii) What is the probability that Kim wears a shirt of the same colour on 1
all three days?
(iii) What is the probability that Kim does not wear a shirt of the same 2
colour on consecutive days?
3 1 3
Answer: (i) 5
(ii) 10
(iii) 10

Further exercises
A Ex 10E X1 Ex 12E
• All questions
• Q5-20

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

Section 5

Further tree diagrams

Important note

• Be careful with . . . . . . . . imbalanced . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . trees where some branches of a tree

. . . . . . . terminate
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .early
........ .
• Questions which contain eventually may have a limiting sum appear.
• Tree diagram questions are the most common historically, in HSC papers.

5.1 Regular balanced trees

Example 19
[2018 2U HSC Q14] Two machines, A and B, produce pens. It is known that 10%
of the pens produced by machine A are faulty and that 5% of the pens produced by
machine B are faulty. Answer: (a) 0.145 (b) 0.85625

(i) One pen is chosen at random from each machine. 1

What is the probability that at least one of the pens is faulty?

(ii) A coin is tossed to select one of the two machines. Two pens are 2
chosen at random from the selected machine.

What is the probability that neither pen is faulty?

30
Further tree diagrams – Regular balanced trees 31

Example 20
[2012 NSGHS 2U Trial Q12] A bag contains one green, four blue and six red
marbles.
(i) Two marbles are drawn from the bag with replacement. Find the 1
probability that two blue marbles are drawn.
(ii) What is the probability that at least one of the marbles is red or green? 2
(iii) A single marble is now removed from the bag without noting its colour 3
and it is replaced with a green marble.

A marble is now drawn from the bag. What is the probability that it
is green?
16 105 21
Answer: (i) 121
(ii) 121
(iii) 121

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

32 Further tree diagrams – Early terminating trees & multidisciplinary problems

5.2 Early terminating trees & multidisciplinary problems

Example 21
[2016 2U HSC Q15] An eight-sided die is marked with numbers 1, 2, . . . , 8. A
game is played by rolling the die until an 8 appears on the uppermost face. At this
point the game ends. Answer: (a) Show (b) n = 12

(i) Using a tree diagram, or otherwise, explain why the probability of the 2
game ending before the fourth roll is
 2
1 7 1 7 1
+ × + ×
8 8 8 8 8
(ii) What is the smallest value of n for which the probability of the game 3
3
ending before the n-th roll is more than ?
4

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Further tree diagrams – Early terminating trees & multidisciplinary problems 33

Example 22
[2014 Ext 1 HSC Q14] Two players A and B play a game that consists of taking
turns until a winner is determined. Each turn consists of spinning the arrow on a
spinner once. The spinner has three sectors P , Q and R. The probabilities that the
arrow stops in sectors P , Q and R are p, q and r respectively.

P
R

The rules of the game are as follows:

• If the arrow stops in sector P , then the player having the turn wins.
• If the arrow stops in sector Q, then the player having the turn loses and the
other player wins.
• If the arrow stops in sector R, then the other player takes a turn.
Player A takes the first turn.
(i) Show that the probability of player A winning on the first or the second 2
turn of the game is
(1 − r)(p + r)
(ii) Show that the probability that player A eventually wins the game is 3
p+r
1+r

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34 Further tree diagrams – Early terminating trees & multidisciplinary problems

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Further tree diagrams – Early terminating trees & multidisciplinary problems 35

Example 23
[2011 Ext 1 HSC] A game is played by throwing darts at a target. A player can
choose to throw two or three darts.

Darcy plays two games. In Game 1, he chooses to throw two darts, and wins if he
hits the target at least once. In Game 2, he chooses to throw three darts, and wins
if he hits the target at least twice.

The probability that Darcy hits the target on any throw is p, where 0 < p < 1.
(i) Show that the probability that Darcy wins Game 1 is 2p − p2 . 1
(ii) Show that the probability that Darcy wins Game 2 is 3p2 − 2p3 . 1
(iii) Prove that Darcy is more likely to win Game 1 than Game 2. 2
(iv) Find the value of p for which Darcy is twice as likely to win Game 1 2
as he is to win Game 2.
Answer: p ≈ 0.3596

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

36 Further tree diagrams – Early terminating trees & multidisciplinary problems

Further exercises
A Ex 10F X1 Ex 12F
• Q3-19
• Q8-22

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Section 6

Conditional Probability

 Learning Goal(s)
² Knowledge 3 Skills ­ Understanding
How to convert problem Solve problems using the The origins of the formula for
description into probability formula for conditional conditional probability and
notation probability how to identify conditional
probability problems from other
types of probability problems
 By the end of this section am I able to:
13.13 Understand the notion of conditional probability and recognise and use language that indicates
conditionality.
P (A ∩ B)
13.14 Use the notation P (A|B) and the formula P (A|B) = , P (B) 6= 0 for conditional
P (B)
probability.
13.15 Understand the notion of independence of an event A from an event B , as defined by P (A|B) =
P (A).

Important note
L Keyword: given
• Consequently, the . . . . . sample
. . . . . . . . . . . . space and . . . .event
. . . . . . . . . space shrinks.

37
38 Conditional Probability – Definitions

6.1 Definitions
Definition 10
The conditional probability of A occurring given B has occurred, is denoted P (A|B).

reduced . . . .event
. . . . . . . . . space |A ∩ B|
P (A|B) = =
reduced . . . . .sample |B|
. . . . . . . . . . . . space

Derive alternative formula for P (A|B) by dividing throughout by |S|:

|A ∩ B|
P (A|B) =
|B|
|A∩B|
|S|
= |B|
|S|
............
P (A ∩ B)
=
P (B)
.....................
Steps
1. Remove all elements not in B from the sample space.
2. Remove all elements not in B from the event space A.
3. Compute.

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Conditional Probability – Definitions 39

Example 24
In a certain population, 35% have blue eyes, 15% have blond hair, and 10% have blue
eyes and blond hair. A person is chosen from this population at random.
(a) Find the probability that they have blond hair, given that they have blue eyes.
(b) Find the probability that they have blue eyes, given that they have blond hair.

Answer: (a) 0.29 (b) 0.67 (to 2 dp)

Apply the formula Let A = {blue eyed population} and B = {blond haired population}

Verify with a Venn diagram:

A B

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

40 Conditional Probability – Definitions

Example 25
[2018 VCE Mathematical Methods Paper 1 Q6] Two boxes each contain four
stones that differ only in colour.
• Box 1 contains four black stones.
• Box 2 contains two black stones and two white stones.
A box is chosen randomly and one stone is drawn randomly from it. Each box is
equally likely to be chosen, as is each stone.
(a) What is the probability that the randomly drawn stone is black? 2
(b) It is not known from which box the stone has been drawn. 2

Given that the stone that is drawn is black, what is the probability
that it was drawn from Box 1?

3 2
Answer: (a) 4
(b) 3

Example 26
[2017 VCE Mathematical Methods Paper 1 Q8] For events A and B from a
1 1
sample space, P (A|B) = and P (B|A) = . Let P (A ∩ B) = p.
5 4
(a) Find P (A) in terms of p. 1
(b) Find P (A ∩ B) in terms of p. 2
(c) Given that P (A ∪ B) ≤ 15 , state the largest possible interval for p. 2

1

Answer: (a) 4p (b) 1 − 8p (c) p ∈ 0, 40

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Conditional Probability – Definitions 41

Example 27
[2015 VCE Mathematical Methods (CAS) Paper 1 Q5] An egg marketing
company buys its eggs from farm A and farm B. Let p be the proportion of eggs
that the company buys from farm A. The rest of the company’s eggs come from
farm B. Each day, the eggs from both farms are taken to the company’s warehouse.

Assume that 53 of all eggs from farm A have white eggshells and 1
5
of all eggs from
farm B have white eggshells.
(a) An egg is selected at random from the set of all eggs at the warehouse. 1
Find, in terms of p, the probability that the egg has a white eggshell
(b) Another egg is selected at random from the set of all eggs at the
warehouse.
i. Given that the egg has a white eggshell, find, in terms of p, the 2
probability that it came from farm B.
ii. If the probability that this egg came from farm B is 0.3, find the 1
value of p.
2p+1 1−p 7
Answer: (a) 5
(b) i. 2p+1
ii. 16

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

42 Conditional Probability – Definitions

Example 28
[2013 James Ruse Ext 1 Trial Q10] Two year 12 students are to be randomly
selected from a pool of N year 12 students, n of whom are from James Ruse. If it is
known that at least one student is from James Ruse, what is the chance that both
students are from James Ruse?

n−1 n−1 n−1 n−1

(A) (B) (C) (D)
2N − n − 1 2N + n + 1 2N + n − 1 2N − n + 1

Probability NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL

Conditional Probability – Revisiting independent events 43

6.2 Revisiting independent events

Definition 11
Two events A and B are independent if

P (A|B) = P (A)
...........

Example 29
Two dice are thrown one after the other.
• Let A be the event the first die is odd.
• Let B be the event the second die is 1, 2 or 3.
• Let C be the event the sum is five
Which of the three pairs of events are independent? Answer: A and B, A and C.

Further exercises
A Ex 10G X1 Ex 12G
• All questions
• All questions

NORMANHURST BOYS’ HIGH SCHOOL Probability

NESA Reference Sheet – calculus based courses

NSW Education Standards Authority

2020 HIGHER SCHOOL CERTIFICATE EXAMINATION

Mathematics Advanced
Mathematics Extension 1
Mathematics Extension 2

–1–
–2–
–3–
–4– © 2018 NSW Education Standards Authority
References

Pender, W., Sadler, D., Ward, D., Dorofaeff, B., & Shea, J. (2019a). CambridgeMATHS Stage 6
Mathematics Advanced Year 11 (1st ed.). Cambridge Education.
Pender, W., Sadler, D., Ward, D., Dorofaeff, B., & Shea, J. (2019b). CambridgeMATHS Stage 6
Mathematics Extension 1 Year 11 (1st ed.). Cambridge Education.

48